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2024 election: Top portfolio plays for a Trump or Harris victory

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2024 election: Top portfolio plays for a Trump or Harris victory

Buckle up.

That’s the message from Wall Street pros as investors brace for a close 2024 presidential election.

So far this year, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has rallied 20%, making 2024 the best Election Year through October since 1936. But that outperformance could be at risk, at least in the immediate term, as the too-close-to-call race is largely expected to trigger market volatility.

Predictions market Polymarket currently shows a 59.5% chance that Donald Trump will win the election, and that’s prompted a return of the so-called Trump trade. Treasuries dropped and gold soared once again this past week as investors bet that Trump’s proposed policies surrounding tariffs and tax cuts could prove to be inflationary.

“The key for markets will be certainty in the outcome from which to understand economic impacts and evaluate implications for the trend of economic growth and evaluation of sector winners and losers,” Rob Haworth, US Bank Wealth Management senior investment strategist, told Yahoo Finance.

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Given the key themes that have emerged from Trump’s and Harris’s respective campaigns, I asked a number of strategists what a Republican versus Democratic presidency means for business and Wall Street and narrowed that list down to three trade ideas under each scenario.

Financials is viewed as a top trade under a Republican presidency on the expectations for looser regulation and increased M&A activity.

According to a recent note from Fitch Ratings, a July 2021 executive order under the Biden-Harris administration encouraging greater scrutiny of mergers has impeded deal activity — guidance that is expected to change under Trump.

“While no proposed mergers have been formally denied since the directive took effect, approval times have increased markedly and, in some cases, to the point of making deals non-viable, as market conditions turned during the review period,” Christopher Wolfe, head of North American banks for Fitch Ratings, wrote in a note.

UBS Global Wealth Management ElectionWatch co-lead Kurt Reiman told me financials stand out as a “key beneficiary” in both a Red sweep scenario (meaning Republicans control the White House, Senate, and House) and a Trump presidency with a split Congress.

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Reiman said a looser regulatory environment could lead to lower costs and greater ability to return capital to shareholders, as well as a higher likelihood that consolidation in the financial services industry would face less resistance.

On the flip side, Reiman and his team see Democrats controlling the White House, Senate, and House as a “worst-case scenario” for financial services due in part to the probability of greater support for the Credit Card Competition Act — a bill he views as ushering in new regulations and stricter interpretations of current rules.

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Can AI Solve Your Personal Finance Problems? Well …

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Can AI Solve Your Personal Finance Problems? Well …
Switch the Market flag

for targeted data from your country of choice.

Open the menu and switch the
Market flag for targeted data from your country of choice.

Need More Chart Options?

Right-click on the chart to open the Interactive Chart menu.

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Use your up/down arrows to move through the symbols.

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5 smart ways to use a year-end bonus

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5 smart ways to use a year-end bonus

Are you expecting a year-end bonus? If so, you’re probably dreaming up all the ways you could spend that windfall.

The average bonus was $2,447 in December 2023, according to payroll company Gusto. That’s a sizeable chunk of change — one that could put you in a better place financially in 2025 with proper planning.

If you expect a bonus to land in your account soon, it may be tempting to splurge. And that’s perfectly fine. After all, you deserve a reward after working hard all year.

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However, before you make an impulsive purchase, consider a few ways you could use those funds to improve your financial situation.

In today’s high interest rate environment, it’s expensive to carry debt. And the higher the interest rates you’re paying, the faster that debt balance can grow.

So, consider using your end-of-year bonus to pay off some of your debts. Not only does this clear your balance faster, but it also saves you money in interest over time.

For example, say you have $3,000 in credit card debt at 21% APR. If you took 12 months to pay off that debt, you’d pay $279 per month and spend about $352 in interest (assuming you don’t make any new purchases on the card).

Now let’s say you receive a $2,000 bonus and use it to pay down your credit card balance to $1,000. In this case, you’d only need to pay $93 per month to eliminate your balance in one year. And you’d pay just $117 in interest — a savings of $235.

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Read more: What’s more important: Saving money or paying off debt?

If you’re not sure what to do with your bonus money, you shouldn’t feel pressured to use it right away. You can set it aside in a bank account while you decide. However, if your money is going to sit in the bank, you should at least earn interest and help it grow without any work on your part.

Following the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, deposit account rates are on the decline. Still, there are plenty of high-yield savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) that pay upwards of 4% APY (or even more). Take some time to compare today’s rates and account options and put your bonus in an account that will help it grow.

See our picks for the best account options today:

It’s important to have a financial safety net in the event of a financial emergency, such as a car repair or job loss. An emergency fund can help you keep your budget intact and avoid taking on new debt to cover a surprise expense.

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It’s typically recommended that you keep enough money in your emergency fund to cover three to six months’ worth of living expenses, though you might need more in certain situations. If you don’t already have an adequate emergency fund in place, a year-end bonus could help you get started.

Read more: How much money should I have in an emergency savings account?

One of the best things you can do for Future You is invest for your golden years. In particular, retirement accounts such as 401(k)s and IRAs are a good option because you can contribute pre-tax dollars, which allows you to lower your tax bill in April (or get a bigger refund), as well as defer taxes until you make withdrawals.

For the 2024 tax year, you can contribute up to $23,000 in a 401(k), and an extra $7,000 if you’re age 50 or older. If you haven’t prioritized saving for retirement in the past, or you want to take full advantage of an employer match, you can ask your payroll department to direct some or all of your bonus to your account.

Read more: 401(k) vs. IRA: The differences and how to choose which is right for you

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As we mentioned, there’s no harm in splurging once in a while, as long as your financial obligations are squared away.

If you don’t want to feel like you’re depriving yourself, set aside half of your bonus for a “responsible” purpose and use the other half however you’d like. This can give you the momentum you need to stay the course when it comes to your financial goals, while still enjoying the fruits of your labor.

Read more: How much of your paycheck should you save?

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Financial Experts’ 2025 Predictions for Student Loan Debt Under President Trump

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Financial Experts’ 2025 Predictions for Student Loan Debt Under President Trump

Paying off student loans can seem like an impossible task, especially when high interest rates mean loan amounts keep increasing. But student loan relief can provide a lifeline for borrowers in need.

Learn More: I’m a Retirement Planner: 7 Ways I Am Guiding Clients Now That Trump Won

Discover More: How To Financially Plan for the New Year Under the New Trump Presidency

A 2024 survey by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau revealed that nearly 61% of borrowers who received debt relief reported the relief gave them the opportunity to make a beneficial change in their life sooner than they otherwise could have.

But with President-elect Donald Trump poised to take office in January, existing student loan relief programs are in jeopardy, meaning borrowers could face substantial changes to their monthly payments and their student loan debt.

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In August 2022, the Biden-Harris administration launched the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan to help borrowers better manage their student loan payments. This income-driven repayment plan offers several benefits to borrowers:

  • Loan payments are calculated based on a borrower’s income and family size, rather than basing payments on their loan balance.

  • Qualifying borrowers’ remaining balances can also be forgiven after a certain number of years.

  • Many borrowers’ monthly payments are reduced, and some borrowers don’t owe monthly payments at all.

  • If borrowers keep up with their monthly payments, the Department of Education won’t charge monthly interest that isn’t covered by the payments, so borrowers’ balances will decrease, and they can more easily pay off the loans.

While on the campaign trail, Trump called President Joe Biden’s planned student loan forgiveness “vile,” blaming student loan relief for increasing the federal deficit.

Check Out: How To Financially Plan for the New Year Under the New Trump Presidency

Bill Townsend, founder and CEO of College Rover, predicted that Trump will end the SAVE plan as part of a concerted effort by many conservatives to change the appeal and direction of college education.

“Interestingly enough, there is a contractual law issue that will arise from public servants who were contractually bound to certain jobs in exchange for student loan forgiveness,” Townsend explained. “Assuming SAVE, which included this preexisting loan forgiveness contract, is voided, there will be the potential for a class action lawsuit against the U.S. government.”

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However, Townsend predicted that Trump could void the lawsuit with an executive action.

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