Finance
2024 election: Top portfolio plays for a Trump or Harris victory
Buckle up.
That’s the message from Wall Street pros as investors brace for a close 2024 presidential election.
So far this year, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has rallied 20%, making 2024 the best Election Year through October since 1936. But that outperformance could be at risk, at least in the immediate term, as the too-close-to-call race is largely expected to trigger market volatility.
Predictions market Polymarket currently shows a 59.5% chance that Donald Trump will win the election, and that’s prompted a return of the so-called Trump trade. Treasuries dropped and gold soared once again this past week as investors bet that Trump’s proposed policies surrounding tariffs and tax cuts could prove to be inflationary.
“The key for markets will be certainty in the outcome from which to understand economic impacts and evaluate implications for the trend of economic growth and evaluation of sector winners and losers,” Rob Haworth, US Bank Wealth Management senior investment strategist, told Yahoo Finance.
Given the key themes that have emerged from Trump’s and Harris’s respective campaigns, I asked a number of strategists what a Republican versus Democratic presidency means for business and Wall Street and narrowed that list down to three trade ideas under each scenario.
Financials is viewed as a top trade under a Republican presidency on the expectations for looser regulation and increased M&A activity.
According to a recent note from Fitch Ratings, a July 2021 executive order under the Biden-Harris administration encouraging greater scrutiny of mergers has impeded deal activity — guidance that is expected to change under Trump.
“While no proposed mergers have been formally denied since the directive took effect, approval times have increased markedly and, in some cases, to the point of making deals non-viable, as market conditions turned during the review period,” Christopher Wolfe, head of North American banks for Fitch Ratings, wrote in a note.
UBS Global Wealth Management ElectionWatch co-lead Kurt Reiman told me financials stand out as a “key beneficiary” in both a Red sweep scenario (meaning Republicans control the White House, Senate, and House) and a Trump presidency with a split Congress.
Reiman said a looser regulatory environment could lead to lower costs and greater ability to return capital to shareholders, as well as a higher likelihood that consolidation in the financial services industry would face less resistance.
On the flip side, Reiman and his team see Democrats controlling the White House, Senate, and House as a “worst-case scenario” for financial services due in part to the probability of greater support for the Credit Card Competition Act — a bill he views as ushering in new regulations and stricter interpretations of current rules.
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Finance
Spanberger taps Del. Sickles to be Secretary of Finance
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Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger has tapped Del. Mark Sickles, D-Fairfax, to serve as her Secretary of Finance.
Sickles has been in the House of Delegates for 22 years and is the second-highest-ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee.
“As the Vice Chair of the House Appropriations Committee, Delegate Sickles has years of experience working with both Democrats and Republicans to pass commonsense budgets that have offered tax relief for families and helped Virginia’s economy grow,” Spanberger said in a statement Tuesday.
Sickles has been a House budget negotiator since 2018.
“We need to make sure every tax dollar is employed to its greatest effect for hard-working Virginians to keep tuition low, to build more affordable housing, to ensure teachers are properly rewarded for their work, and to make quality healthcare available and affordable for everyone,” Sickles said in a statement. “The Finance Secretariat must be a team player in helping Virginia’s government to perform to its greatest potential.”
Sickles is the third member of the House that Spanberger has selected to serve in her administration. Del. Candi Mundon King, D-Prince William, was tapped to serve as the Secretary of the Commonwealth, and Del. David Bulova, D-Fairfax, was named Secretary of Historic and Natural Resources.
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Finance
Bank of Korea needs to remain wary of financial stability risks, board member says
SEOUL, Dec 23 (Reuters) – South Korea’s central bank needs to remain wary of financial stability risks, such as heightened volatility in the won currency and upward pressure on house prices, a board member said on Tuesday.
“Volatility is increasing in financial and foreign exchange markets with sharp fluctuations in stock prices and comparative weakness in the won,” said Chang Yong-sung, a member of the Bank of Korea’s seven-seat monetary policy board.
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The won hit on Tuesday its weakest level since early April at 1,483.5 per dollar. It has fallen more than 8% in the second half of 2025.
Chang also warned of high credit risks for some vulnerable sectors and continuously rising house prices in his comments released with the central bank’s semiannual financial stability report.
In the report, the BOK said it would monitor risk factors within the financial system and proactively seek market stabilising measures if needed, though it noted most indicators of foreign exchange conditions remained stable.
Monetary policy would continue to be coordinated with macroprudential policies, it added.
The BOK’s next monetary policy meeting is in January.
Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Jamie Freed
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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