That’s the message from Wall Street pros as investors brace for a close 2024 presidential election.
So far this year, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has rallied 20%, making 2024 the best Election Year through October since 1936. But that outperformance could be at risk, at least in the immediate term, as the too-close-to-call race is largely expected to trigger market volatility.
Predictions market Polymarket currently shows a 59.5% chance that Donald Trump will win the election, and that’s prompted a return of the so-called Trump trade. Treasuries dropped and gold soared once again this past week as investors bet that Trump’s proposed policies surrounding tariffs and tax cuts could prove to be inflationary.
“The key for markets will be certainty in the outcome from which to understand economic impacts and evaluate implications for the trend of economic growth and evaluation of sector winners and losers,” Rob Haworth, US Bank Wealth Management senior investment strategist, told Yahoo Finance.
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Given the key themes that have emerged from Trump’s and Harris’s respective campaigns, I asked a number of strategists what a Republican versus Democratic presidency means for business and Wall Street and narrowed that list down to three trade ideas under each scenario.
Financials is viewed as a top trade under a Republican presidency on the expectations for looser regulation and increased M&A activity.
According to a recent note from Fitch Ratings, a July 2021 executive order under the Biden-Harris administration encouraging greater scrutiny of mergers has impeded deal activity — guidance that is expected to change under Trump.
“While no proposed mergers have been formally denied since the directive took effect, approval times have increased markedly and, in some cases, to the point of making deals non-viable, as market conditions turned during the review period,” Christopher Wolfe, head of North American banks for Fitch Ratings, wrote in a note.
UBS Global Wealth Management ElectionWatch co-lead Kurt Reiman told me financials stand out as a “key beneficiary” in both a Red sweep scenario (meaning Republicans control the White House, Senate, and House) and a Trump presidency with a split Congress.
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Reiman said a looser regulatory environment could lead to lower costs and greater ability to return capital to shareholders, as well as a higher likelihood that consolidation in the financial services industry would face less resistance.
On the flip side, Reiman and his team see Democrats controlling the White House, Senate, and House as a “worst-case scenario” for financial services due in part to the probability of greater support for the Credit Card Competition Act — a bill he views as ushering in new regulations and stricter interpretations of current rules.
Bank of America’s Jason Kupferberg echoed a similar sentiment. In a recent note to clients, Kupferberg and his team wrote that a Democratic sweep would be a “worst case scenario” for the payments sector for two reasons: higher probability of a tougher stance on the DOJ’s lawsuit versus Visa and the potential for new laws to lessen Visa’s (V) and Mastercard’s (MA) competitive edge in the US.
The expectation of higher spending under a second Trump administration has sent gold (GC=F) prices to record highs. The precious metal closed the week at $2,734.44 an ounce, bringing its year-to-date gains to 34%.
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And the run may be far from over, according to Wealth Alliance president Eric Diton.
“We just don’t have a plan as a country to deal with our $35 trillion in debt and growing … I haven’t heard any talk about any kind of reduction in spending from either candidate,” Diton told me.
While neither candidate seems to have a plan to address the country’s ballooning deficit, a recent analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated Trump’s policies could add $7.5 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years, compared to $3.5 trillion under Harris.
Managed-care insurers could see some relief under a second Trump administration due to the likelihood of greater support for privatized programs like Medicare Advantage — an approach long preferred by Republicans.
And that could give a boost to companies like Humana (HUM), UnitedHealth (UNH), and CVS (CVS).
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Oppenheimer’s Michael Wiederhorn named Humana as the firm’s “best idea” for a Republican sweep, noting that Medicare Advantage beneficiaries account for 87% of the company’s premium revenue.
“The key ways that a Republican regime could support Mastercard include strong rate increases and a favorable regulatory environment,” Wiederhorn noted.
It’s a pivotal election for the electric vehicle industry, and not just because of Trump’s close ties with Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk. Rather, the former president’s promise to roll back the Biden administration’s EV policies on “day one” could have significant implications.
“This week’s election, and the potential shift in government regulations based on who wins, will be more consequential to the automotive industry than any previous election,” iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer said in a statement.
Earlier this year, RBC’s Tom Narayan told me Trump’s “erratic” behavior during his first term left the auto industry uneasy, and they view his past threats as a potential challenge to their business if he were to be elected.
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On the other hand, Harris has been supportive of the current administration’s efforts to expand access to EVs. She’s largely expected to extend the Biden-era $7,500 tax incentive for new EVs and $4,000 for used EVs — a credit that Guggenheim’s Ron Jewsikow has told me is a “key affordability enabler.”
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees a Harris ticket as a positive for General Motors (GM), Ford (F), Stellantis (STLA), and the EV industry more broadly, including Tesla.
Harris’s promise to support the housing market and make home affordability a centerpiece of her economic agenda is a bullish sign for homebuilders, according to Oppenheimer.
The team, led by analyst Tyler Batory, sees Harris’s plan to build three million new housing units and improve housing affordability as a key catalyst for the sector. The team named D.R. Horton (DHI) a top housing play, making the case that the stock is “uniquely positioned” given its focus on entry-level housing.
“The company’s lower ASP (pricing) should benefit from increased demand from a tax credit, and its scale would allow further ramping of home production,” Batory wrote.
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In the company’s third quarter earnings call, D.R. Horton CEO Paul Romanowski warned affordability and election uncertainty had prompted “some buyers to stay on the sidelines in the near-term,” sending ripples across the industry. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF declined 1.6% for the week, bringing its one-month loss to -8%.
More social support under a Harris administration will boost off-price retailers, according to Evercore’s Michael Binetti.
“A blue sweep would likely benefit the lowest income consumers and within our space, Burlington Stores has the lowest income demographics and a bigger margin opportunity than Ross Stores,” Binetti wrote.
Off-price retailers have outperformed this year as consumers hunt for value amid sticky inflation. Burlington Stores (BURL) posted better-than-expected earnings and raised its outlook during its most recent quarterly report, while Ross Stores’ (ROST) value offerings helped boost sales by 7%. Shares of Burlington have soared 100% over the past year, while Ross has jumped 21%.
Seana Smith is an anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Smith on Twitter @SeanaNSmith. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email seanasmith@yahooinc.com.
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My spreadsheet reviewed a WalletHub ranking of financial distress for the residents of 100 U.S. cities, including 17 in California. The analysis compared local credit scores, late bill payments, bankruptcy filings and online searches for debt or loans to quantify where individuals had the largest money challenges.
When California cities were divided into three geographic regions – Southern California, the Bay Area, and anything inland – the most challenges were often found far from the coast.
The average national ranking of the six inland cities was 39th worst for distress, the most troubled grade among the state’s slices.
Bakersfield received the inland region’s worst score, ranking No. 24 highest nationally for financial distress. That was followed by Sacramento (30th), San Bernardino (39th), Stockton (43rd), Fresno (45th), and Riverside (52nd).
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Southern California’s seven cities overall fared better, with an average national ranking of 56th largest financial problems.
However, Los Angeles had the state’s ugliest grade, ranking fifth-worst nationally for monetary distress. Then came San Diego at 22nd-worst, then Long Beach (48th), Irvine (70th), Anaheim (71st), Santa Ana (85th), and Chula Vista (89th).
Monetary challenges were limited in the Bay Area. Its four cities average rank was 69th worst nationally.
San Jose had the region’s most distressed finances, with a No. 50 worst ranking. That was followed by Oakland (69th), San Francisco (72nd), and Fremont (83rd).
The results remind us that inland California’s affordability – it’s home to the state’s cheapest housing, for example – doesn’t fully compensate for wages that typically decline the farther one works from the Pacific Ocean.
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A peek inside the scorecard’s grades shows where trouble exists within California.
Credit scores were the lowest inland, with little difference elsewhere. Late payments were also more common inland. Tardy bills were most difficult to find in Northern California.
Bankruptcy problems also were bubbling inland, but grew the slowest in Southern California. And worrisome online searches were more frequent inland, while varying only slightly closer to the Pacific.
Note: Across the state’s 17 cities in the study, the No. 53 average rank is a middle-of-the-pack grade on the 100-city national scale for monetary woes.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
The up-and-coming fintech scored a pair of fourth-quarter beats.
Diversified fintech Chime Financial(CHYM +12.88%) was playing a satisfying tune to investors on Thursday. The company’s stock flew almost 14% higher that trading session, thanks mostly to a fourth quarter that featured notably higher-than-expected revenue guidance.
Sweet music
Chime published its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results just after market close on Wednesday. For the former period, the company’s revenue was $596 million, bettering the same quarter of 2024 by 25%. The company’s strongest revenue stream, payments, rose 17% to $396 million. Its take from platform-related activity rose more precipitously, advancing 47% to $200 million.
Image source: Getty Images.
Meanwhile, Chime’s net loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) more than doubled. It was $45 million, or $0.12 per share, compared with a fourth-quarter 2024 deficit of $19.6 million.
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On average, analysts tracking the stock were modeling revenue below $578 million and a deeper bottom-line loss of $0.20 per share.
In its earnings release, Chime pointed to the take-up of its Chime Card as a particular catalyst for growth. Regarding the product, the company said, “Among new member cohorts, over half are adopting Chime Card, and those members are putting over 70% of their Chime spend on the product, which earns materially higher take rates compared to debit.”
Today’s Change
(12.88%) $2.72
Current Price
$23.83
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Key Data Points
Market Cap
$7.9B
Day’s Range
$22.30 – $24.63
52wk Range
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$16.17 – $44.94
Volume
562K
Avg Vol
3.3M
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Gross Margin
86.34%
Double-digit growth expected
Chime management proffered revenue and non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance for full-year 2026. The company expects to post a top line of $627 million to $637 million, which would represent at least 21% growth over the 2024 result. Adjusted EBITDA should be $380 million to $400 million. No net income forecasts were provided in the earnings release.
It isn’t easy to find a niche in the financial industry, which is crowded with companies offering every imaginable type of service to clients. Yet Chime seems to be achieving that, as the Chime Card is clearly a hit among the company’s target demographic of clientele underserved by mainstream banks. This growth stock is definitely worth considering as a buy.
ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Student athletes are now earning real money thanks to name, image, likeness deals — but with that opportunity comes the need for financial preparation.
Noah Collins Howard and Dayshawn Preston are two high school juniors with Division I offers on the table. Both are chasing their dreams on the field, and both are navigating something brand new off of it — their finances.
“When it comes to NIL, some people just want the money, and they just spend it immediately. Well, you’ve got to know how to take care of your money. And again, you need to know how to grow it because you don’t want to just spend it,” said Collins Howard.
What You Need To Know
High school athletes with Division I prospects are learning to manage NIL money before they even reach college
Glory2Glory Sports Agency and Advantage Federal Credit Union have partnered to give young athletes access to financial literacy tools and credit-building resources
Financial experts warn that starting money habits early is key to long-term stability for student athletes entering the NIL era
Preston said the experience has already been eye-opening.
“It’s very important. Especially my first time having my own card and bank account — so that’s super exciting,” Preston said.
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For many young athletes, the money comes before the knowledge. That’s where Glory2Glory Sports Agency in Rochester comes in — helping athletes prepare for life outside of sports.
“College sports is now pro sports. These kids are going from one extreme to the other financially, and it’s important for them to have the tools necessary to navigate that massive shift,” said Antoine Hyman, CEO of Glory2Glory Sports Agency.
Through their Students for Change program, athletes get access to student checking accounts, financial literacy courses and credit-building tools — all through a partnership with Advantage Federal Credit Union.
“It’s never too early to start. We have youth accounts, student checking accounts — they were all designed specifically for students and the youth,” said Diane Miller, VP of marketing and PR at Advantage Federal Credit Union.
The goal goes beyond what’s in their pocket today. It’s about building habits that will protect them for life.
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“If you don’t start young, you’re always catching up. The younger you start them, the better off they’re going to be on that financial path,” added Nihada Donohew, executive vice president of Advantage Federal Credit Union.
For these athletes, having the right support system makes all the difference.
“It’s really great to have a support system around you. Help you get local deals with the local shops,” Preston added.
Collins-Howard said the program has given him a broader perspective beyond just the game.
“It gives me a better understanding of how to take care of myself and prepare myself for the future of giving back to the community,” Collins-Howard said.
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“These high school kids need someone to legitimately advocate their skills, their character and help them pick the right space. Everything has changed now,” Hyman added.
NIL opened the door. Programs like this one make sure these athletes walk through it — with a plan.
