Culture
Why each of the Top 10 Super Bowl contenders will (or won’t) hoist the Lombardi in February
The Kansas City Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls, so the entire NFL will be looking to knock them off their perch atop the league. What’s surprising, though, is that despite winning two titles in a row, my NFL Projection Model does not see the Chiefs as the favorites to win it all this year. That’s more a testament to the AFC, which is deep with talented teams, making the Chiefs’ march to another conference crown extremely difficult.
Then again, the road won’t be easy for any team. If it were, we wouldn’t be watching.
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With that in mind, and the start of the season less than a week away, let’s examine the 10 teams most likely to win the Super Bowl and provide reasons why they will or won’t be the last team standing in February.
NFL Projection Model: Super Bowl
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
The 49ers still have arguably the best roster in the NFL, with my projection model suggesting they have the best offense and fourth-best defense in the league. Quarterback Brock Purdy is 17-4 as a starter in his young career, and coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in football. When you have top-five units on both sides of the ball and you’re coming off a second NFC title in three years, it’s not hard to argue for why you’ll win it.
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Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
Contract chaos. Negotiations with star receiver Brandon Aiyuk and All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams spill into the season, and without these two practicing for the majority of the summer, the offense sputters out of the gate and struggles to find a rhythm.
And if the 49ers ultimately deal Aiyuk, that will be a huge blow to the offense despite their investment in the position in the draft. The 49ers employ a rookie contract quarterback, so they have plenty of talent beyond Aiyuk and Williams, but without those two pushing the unit to full strength, it’s hard to envision San Francisco reaching another Super Bowl.
Kansas City Chiefs (11.8%)
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
You know the reasons. It’s hard not to sound like a broken record when talking about this era of the Chiefs, but here goes: They have a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, an all-time great coach in Andy Reid, one of the best assistant coaches in recent memory in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and a championship-caliber roster. If Mahomes is healthy and under center, it’s hard to see them as an underdog against anyone.
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Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
No team in the Super Bowl era has ever three-peated. It’s incredibly difficult to win the Super Bowl, and despite Mahomes and Co. making it look so easy, the AFC really is stacked this year. One thing I’m worried about is that the Chiefs kind of sleepwalked through the regular season last year. If they have to go on the road in the playoffs again, maybe the defense takes a step back (replacing star CB L’Jarius Sneed won’t be easy) and they trip up in a tough environment like Baltimore or Buffalo.
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
The defense becomes respectable, especially in the secondary. Last year, the Lions ranked 24th in EPA/play and 29th against the pass, according to TruMedia. They should have no problem on offense — they’re ranked third by my model — but if they’re going to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, the defense needs to take strides. And since their first two picks in the NFL Draft were both spent on cornerbacks (first-rounder Terrion Arnold and second-rounder Ennis Rakestraw Jr.), I’d say general manager Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell agree.
Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
The offense becomes stale under Jared Goff, just like it did in Los Angeles. In Year 3 with the Rams, Goff reached the Super Bowl with his EPA/dropback and success rate metrics hitting a peak. In Year 4, his numbers dropped off, and the Rams went from 13 wins to nine. If Goff follows a similar trajectory in his fourth year in Detroit, with an improving division, the Lions could fall short of expectations.
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Coordinator upgrades on both sides of the ball allow the Eagles to reach their full potential. The Eagles were a mess last year, and getting the coordinator hires right could offset losing Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox to retirement. Vic Fangio should be a huge upgrade to a defense that lost its way last year. And the addition of an explosive playmaker in Saquon Barkley should allow new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take some of the burden off Jalen Hurts as a runner, which will help keep the quarterback healthy for the entire season en route to the Super Bowl.
Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
The defense just doesn’t quite put it together. The Eagles’ first three picks in April’s draft were all spent on the defensive side of the ball, and the first two — defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean — will be expected to contribute in the secondary. That’s a lot of pressure to put on a pair of inexperienced players. My model has the Eagles defense projected to be a league-average unit as it stands right now, and if the young players in the secondary don’t show up, Philadelphia won’t last long in January.
Baltimore Ravens (6.3%)
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
The defense remains one of the best in the NFL despite losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Seattle Seahawks. If Zach Orr can step in and keep things at the standard they were at under Macdonald, this is one of the best teams in football. Orr has been with the Ravens as a player and coach for all but one year of his career, so he will have all the knowledge needed to keep the ship on course. Also worth mentioning: Two-time MVP QB Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry could be the most dangerous backfield duo since the turn of the century, and that ends up being a huge reason for their success.
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Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
Losses on the offensive line are too much to overcome, and the Ravens find themselves struggling to fend off contenders in a deep AFC. Jackson can erase a lot of deficiencies, but replacing three offensive linemen and relying on Ronnie Stanley’s health becomes a roster-building mistake even Jackson can’t overcome. The Ravens had one of the better offensive lines in the league last year, but no offense can reach its goals if it’s struggling in the trenches. If this line fails to come together, so will the Ravens.
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Because the defense improves without Dan Quinn. Though things got stale with Mike Zimmer as a head coach in Minnesota, I still think he is one of the better defensive minds in football. Despite rostering one of the best pass rushers in the league in Micah Parsons, the Cowboys defense always seemed to come up short against great offenses during Quinn’s tenure — especially against those running the Shanahan/Sean McVay schemes. If Zimmer gets a little more out of this talented unit, the Cowboys offense has enough firepower to take them to their first Super Bowl since 1994.
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Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
Because Dak Prescott can’t overcome negative plays in big games. Listen, Prescott is a good quarterback and I think he’s one of few capable of leading an NFL team to a ring. But he tends to throw interceptions and take sacks at a higher rate than the league’s elite when it matters. Last year (playoffs included), Prescott ranked 13th in sacks plus INT rate at 7.4 percent. Against 2023 playoff teams (eight games), he ranked 26th at 10.3 percent. If Prescott and the Cowboys offense can’t avoid the disaster plays in the big games, they will endure yet another disappointing end to their season.
Buffalo Bills (5.6%)
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Because Josh Allen is the second-best quarterback in the NFL and lifts a Bills offense that no longer has star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill and won back-to-back Super Bowls, and while I don’t think Allen is Mahomes, he’s the next closest thing. The Bills look to be following the Chiefs’ blueprint of keeping the roster healthy for the long term rather than spending too much on one position (Diggs/Hill). If Allen can rise to the occasion like Mahomes has, there is no reason the Bills can’t finish on top in February.
Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
The defense isn’t deep enough to carry its weight. Linebacker Matt Milano, a vital member of the Bills defense, is going to miss extended time recovering from a torn biceps injury he suffered earlier this month. With Milano in the lineup, my projections have the Bills as a fringe top-10 defense. Without him, they look more like an average unit, as the model is not overly fond of the remaining back seven. Without depth in that area, I’m afraid that hill will be too steep to climb for Buffalo.
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Quarterback Joe Burrow plays a full season. Burrow has been one of the league’s best quarterbacks when healthy, but he’s struggled to stay on the field. The offense has the weapons in place to be one of the best units in the league, and if Burrow is out there, it’s a good bet that unit will be near the top five. Factor in the fourth-place schedule the Bengals will play this season, and there is an easier-than-expected path through the stacked AFC. In fact, Burrow has a chance to lead the Bengals to a first-round bye.
Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
The defense isn’t championship-caliber. The Bengals ranked 25th in EPA/play on defense last year, so it’s going to take an awful lot to get back into the top 10. My model has them projected to be an average unit entering the season, and that’s likely not good enough considering where the offense is. Burrow is a great quarterback, but I don’t think he’s shown the ability to carry an average defense to a Super Bowl.
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
Because coach Matt LaFleur, quarterback Jordan Love and this offense dismantled the Cowboys in the playoffs last year and took the 49ers to the wire in the divisional round. And that was no fluke. Another offseason for Love and the ceiling for the Packers on that side of the ball is as high as anyone’s in the league. If they come close to reaching that ceiling, they have a great shot to go all the way.
Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
Because while the offense was a top-five unit by EPA/play in the second half of last season, the defense ranked in the bottom 10, and the special teams was the worst unit in football during the same period. Changes have been made at defensive coordinator — Jeff Hafley replaced Joe Barry — and the talent is there, but can it all come together for Green Bay? It’s a tough thing to bet on. Even if the defense is average, combined with horrible special teams play, that’s just too much burden for the offense to carry.
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
The easy answer here is that Aaron Rodgers plays like an MVP, but I think the more glaring issue is the offensive line, which allowed pressure at the sixth-highest rate last year. The Jets addressed this by upgrading the unit in free agency (Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson) and the draft (Olu Fashanu). Even though Fashanu hasn’t played an NFL snap yet, he’ll serve as crucial depth behind the oft-injured Smith.
If the Jets keep Rodgers upright, all he needs to do is be an above-average quarterback, and the Jets can make a run with their elite defense.
Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
Because having an elite defense year over year is tough. The New England Patriots are the only team to rank in the top five of EPA/play on defense in each of the past three seasons. And you could argue the quarterback play in the AFC East during the stretch has inflated the Patriots’ ranking. The Jets defense enters the season in the top three, per my model. If the unit were to slide down, even to seventh best, that could too big of a hill to climb for an offense that has uncertainties.
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(Photo illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic;
photos: Lauren Leigh Bacho, Ryan Kang and Ric Tapia: Getty Images)
Culture
Sara Errani serves up another tennis trophy for Italy at the Billie Jean King Cup
MALAGA, Spain — Sara Errani stands at the baseline and exhales deeply. She is about to hit a second serve, with Italy up match point against Poland. A place in the Billie Jean King Cup final is at stake. So Errani does what she has done many, many times before: she hits an underarm serve.
The ball floats into the service box and onto the racket of Iga Swiatek, one of two women’s players who can claim to be the best in the world. Swiatek is on to it in a flash and hits her return deep to Errani’s forehand. Errani again does what she has done many, many times before: she gets the ball back.
She does the same on her opponent’s next shot, hoisting a backhand lob into the air. Swiatek loops a forehand volley long and Italy is through to the final for the second year in a row.
Errani collapses to the ground in relief, celebrating with her partner Jasmine Paolini and shaking hands with the defeated opponents a few seconds later, before allowing herself a what-have-I-just-done smile.
For Errani, 37, it was another successful heist in a career full of them.
On Wednesday, she added a fourth Billie Jean King Cup title (three of which came when it was the Federation Cup) to the career Golden Grand Slam in doubles she completed this year by winning gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics alongside Paolini. It has been a stunning year for Errani, who also won the mixed doubles title at the U.S. Open with another Italian, Andrea Vavassori. She thought 2024 would be her last on tour, having won her last major 10 years ago.
“My thought last year was to play in the Olympics and then stop playing tennis, but we’re playing great in doubles and I’m having so much fun,” she said in an interview in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, at the WTA Tour Finals earlier this month.
Completing the doubles Golden Slam in Paris put Errani in an elite group of just seven women. When looking back on her career, the underarm serve to Swiatek on Monday will feel like a defining moment for a player who uses the contentious tactic more consistently and more particularly than anybody else.
Her story with the underarm serve goes to the heart of her tennis life.
The underarm serve is one of tennis’s most curious shots, caught between the poles of disrespectful trick shot and tactical masterstroke. Big servers like Nick Kyrgios can use it to take advantage of opponents who are standing back anticipating a 140mph rocket. There is an element of showmanship too; this is very much the case with Alexander Bublik. He might be blessed with a big serve, but he is also the current player probably most synonymous with the cheeky alternative.
Other players use it against specific opponents. World No. 68 Alexandre Muller told The Athletic at Wimbledon that he had specifically practised the shot to use it against Daniil Medvedev, who has one of the deepest return positions in the sport.
Corentin Moutet, a master of the shot, started practising underarm serves after a shoulder injury. He has since incorporated them into his game, doing so to great acclaim at this year’s French Open. He used the underarm serve 12 times in his third-round win against Sebastian Ofner, winning nine of those points. He is the opposite of a player like Kyrgios, using the underarm serve because he doesn’t expect to win free points behind his first serve; there is no drop-off in expected value.
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Errani’s reason for using the shot will be familiar to many amateur players: she just doesn’t trust her serve.
Errani stands at 5ft 5in (164cm) which is diminutive by modern tennis standards — just like her partner Paolini, whose serve has some heat despite her height of 5ft 4in. Errani does not have this pace, and her height has contributed to a shot often derided as the worst serve in the sport.
Smiling, she says it would be amazing to be a bit taller. “Many times, I think about that.”
Instead of letting her serve become a complete albatross, Errani has used her ground skills, tactical nous and the shock factor of a serve that regularly registers around 60mph (96.5kph) on the speed gun to reach the very top of tennis in singles and doubles.
She reached the 2012 French Open final in singles and cracked the world’s top five a year later, despite her opponents feeling that they ought to break her every single game. Instead, they are bamboozled by her incredible dexterity at the net or from the back of the court, as well as struggling to read and return her serve.
“It comes so slow and it kind of floats in the air,” Mirjana Lucic-Baroni said in a news conference after losing to Errani in the 2014 U.S. Open fourth round, a match in which Errani’s average serve speed was 76mph.
“It was really difficult to time the balls.” Errani’s serve became something of a meme in 2024 after Daniil Medvedev completely failed to return it at all during a mixed doubles match at the Paris Olympics.
Errani herself said in a news conference after that match that she has a different approach to serving from most players: “I don’t try to make winners,” she said.
“I just try to make kick, make slice, try to change my game. I need to start the point where I want. So sometimes is better for me to serve not that fast, because if you serve fast the ball is coming (back) faster.”
That conviction hasn’t always been there. Her serve reached a nadir in April 2019 when she was only recently back from a 10-month doping suspension for ingesting letrozole, which was increased from an original two months by the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). Errani said she was “really disgusted” by the length of the ban, saying that her case was because of contamination after her mother, who was taking letrozole for breast cancer, dropped pills on their kitchen counter where they prepared meals.
At the Copa Colsanitas in Bogota, Colombia, Errani served 18 double faults per match in three consecutive matches (all of which she won) before hitting around half her serves underarm in a quarter-final defeat to Astra Sharma. Later that year at a low-level event in Asuncion, Paraguay, Errani took the nuclear option by serving underarm for the entire tournament. She reached the final, copping a huge amount of social media abuse in the process.
In response, she wrote on Instagram: “In Italy, I keep being insulted by a lot of people, regarding mainly my serve.
“If it is not ok for you, send a letter to WTA asking to change rules about serve or ask them to disqualify me for awful serve. If instead you just have other problems with me, send a letter to Santa.”
Five years on, she says her serve had completely overtaken everything else.
“I couldn’t compete. I was thinking all the time about my serve,” she says.
“My coach said: ‘Do one tournament all underarm and just compete.’ It was to try to make my head free from, not panic, but the tough moments.”
Despite recovering from those yips, Errani then endured an anxiety dream of a service game at the 2020 French Open during a second-round defeat to Kiki Bertens. Errani was given two time violations after five aborted ball tosses and landed only one overarm serve, with one attempt missing the baseline. Serving for the set, she was broken to love.
“Sometimes it’s there and it can come out, but I try to manage it,” she says of the nerves that can grip her when serving.
“When I was practising, my serve was good. But then in matches, I was feeling the block, the panic. I know it’s still there. It’s not like it’s in the past.”
Errani, an unwitting trailblazer, can laugh at the fact that the underarm serve has come back into fashion, certainly on the men’s side, over the past few years. “If it can be a good tactic, why not?” she laughs. Against Swiatek, the decision was more of a vibe.
“I just advised Jasmine after the first serve, so it’s just I feel it and I did it, just like that, not thinking too much,” she said in a news conference after the match.
At 37, Errani is the Italian team’s most experienced player, and as her team-mates chorused in Wednesday’s celebratory news conference she is “the brain of the team”.
Errani resembles her compatriot Jorginho, the Brazilian-born Italy and Arsenal midfielder who is so intelligent that he is a reference point for everybody else despite not being the most physically gifted.
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Paolini, who is the world No. 4 in singles and a two-time Grand Slam finalist this year, constantly looks to Errani for guidance on the doubles court.
“She wants me to tell her what to do every point – even when she serves, she likes me to tell her where to put it and I’m trying to push her to tell me what she’s feeling more,” Errani said.
Whatever the tactics, the Errani-Paolini partnership is contributing to a golden period for tennis in Italy.
On the men’s side, Jannik Sinner is the world No. 1 and has won two Grand Slams this year. He is part of an Italy team that is hoping to defend the Davis Cup this week and make it a double with the victorious BJK Cup group. Errani, who lived through a period when she was one of the ‘Fab Four’ Italian women who all reached a Grand Slam final and the world’s top 10 between 2010 and 2014 (Francesca Schiavone, Roberta Vinci and Flavia Pennetta were the others), believes that all the current top players from her country are pushing each other to greater heights.
And Errani has no desire to leave the golden age behind just yet. “I said to Jasmine: ‘I’ll continue next year for sure and then we’ll see,’” she says.
After the genre-defining underarm serve against Swiatek, this wily veteran still has at least one last heist in her.
(Top photo: Fran Santiago / Getty Images for ITF)
Culture
Ray Lewis wants FAU head-coaching job, but Charlie Weis Jr. still the frontrunner: Sources
FAU football, which rose to national relevance under Lane Kiffin, has backslid over the last five seasons under Willie Taggart and the recently fired Tom Herman. The Owls’ new coaching search, though, might be the most interesting one of this year’s coaching carousel.
And it got a little more interesting this week, as Miami great Ray Lewis has made it known that he really wants to be the Owls’ next coach, a source briefed on Lewis’ thinking said Wednesday.
The 49-year-old Lewis, a 13-time Pro Bowl linebacker, has observed the model of what Deion Sanders has done transforming Colorado football in the past two years and is expected to present a plan to the Owls’ leadership in the next week for how he’d do something similar at FAU.
Lewis’ old buddy, fellow Pro Football Hall of Famer Cris Carter, is the Owls’ executive director of player engagement and is expected to be a good resource for Lewis. A big hurdle for Lewis is, unlike Sanders, he doesn’t have any previous college coaching experience.
“Ray wants it bad,” the source briefed on Lewis’ thinking said. Lewis lives five minutes from the FAU campus. “He really wants it.”
Lewis, however, is not considered a serious candidate at this point, according to a source involved in the coaching search.
The frontrunner for the FAU vacancy, according to multiple sources involved in the search, is Ole Miss offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. The 31-year-old son of former Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis, who lives a half-hour from Boca Raton, is the play caller at a hot Rebels program and runs the nation’s No. 2 offense, putting up 7.58 yards per play.
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The younger Weis was Kiffin’s former offensive coordinator at FAU and knows the program well. He has a lot of support from some key FAU people, according to sources involved in the search. Kiffin has strong influence back at FAU and will push Weis for the job, those sources said. Financially, Weis — who makes $1.65 million at Ole Miss — might have to take a pay cut to go back to FAU but a source briefed on the matter said he doubted that would stop Weis from wanting this job.
Other expected candidates for the FAU job
Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner might make more sense for the Owls. The 43-year-old helped turn Tech from the ACC’s No. 11 offense to No. 3 last year. In 2022, the year before he was hired in Atlanta, Georgia Tech ranked last in the ACC in red zone offense. His offense is No. 2 in the ACC in red zone TD percentage.
Penn State assistant head coach/co-OC Ja’Juan Seider is a well-regarded coach with deep local ties and is expected to get some consideration. The 47-year-old Belle Glade, Fla., product was a star quarterback at Florida A&M and is well-connected around South Florida. Players really respond to him. He also has been a key assistant in Happy Valley, at Marshall and West Virginia.
UCF offensive coordinator Tim Harris Jr. has spent his whole coaching career in the state. He was a four-time NCAA All-American in track at Miami and then spent five years as a successful high school coach in South Florida at Miami’s Booker T. Washington High before spending seven seasons at FIU. Since then, he’s coached at Miami and UCF, where he has produced the Big 12’s most prolific offense at 6.76 yards per play.
UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, a former Miami Dolphins wideout who lived in Boynton Beach, not far from the Owls’ campus, might be an intriguing option. He has proven to be a terrific offensive coordinator in two stops at the FCS level before an excellent two-season run of transforming the Rebels into a winning program. Last year he led the Rebels to No. 6 in the country in third down offense and No. 8 in red zone offense despite his starting QB going down early and having to turn to an unproven freshman in Jayden Maiava, who went on to win Mountain West Freshman of the Year honors. This year, the Rebels, with Maiava having left for USC, are No. 6 in the nation in scoring at 39.9 points per game.
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FSU defensive backs coach Pat Surtain could be in play at his alma mater Southern Miss, but he also has strong ties here. He played a decade in the NFL before becoming a top high school coach in South Florida. The 48-year-old spent one season with the Miami Dolphins as an NFL assistant before joining FSU’s staff in 2023.
Georgia assistant head coach Todd Hartley, 39, spent three years coaching in South Florida on the Canes’ staff. He is someone Kirby Smart has leaned on in elevating the program since Hartley’s return to Athens in 2019. Southern Miss also has a lot of interest in Hartley for its head coaching vacancy.
Duke defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke, a Manny Diaz protege who was on the staff at Miami, is a rising star at defensive coordinator. He’s had a strong debut season in Durham and also could be in play.
Miami defensive ends coach Jason Taylor. The Pro Football Hall of Famer, who had been a high school assistant for five seasons at powerhouse St. Thomas Aquinas, is a legendary figure around South Florida. In 2007, Taylor won the NFL’s prestigious Walter Payton Man of the Year honors and has been an excellent addition to the Canes staff the past two seasons.
— Chris Vannini contributed to this report
Required reading
(Photo: Rob Carr / Getty Images)
Culture
Will NBA expansion bring the SuperSonics back to Seattle? ‘There’s just too much karma’
SEATTLE — When the SuperSonics left here in 2008, Brent Barry felt it in his gut. There was an emptiness, a sadness so pronounced that he was moved to put pen to paper.
At the time, Barry was preparing for training camp with the San Antonio Spurs, but part of his heart was still in Seattle, a bond forged through his five seasons as a wing with the Sonics. Now the team was no more thanks to an abrupt transaction that uprooted the franchise to Oklahoma City.
Barry’s mind was numbed with a blur of memories he captured in his poem, “When It Rains.”
“… and here I sit in my office space and think of my career
And what to say to my two sons, did the team just disappear?
I played in KeyArena, I live on Queen Anne Hill
I played pinball at Shorty’s after games, and ate burgers at both Red Mills
I would have some chowder down at Dukes, and watch Sea Planes take their flight
And find myself in Fremont if I needed a beer that night
I saw Star Wars at Cinerama, tossed a pitch at Safeco Field,
Drove all the way to Bellingham to see Pearl Jam and Yield …”
Sixteen years later, a collection of Sonics jerseys extends wall-to-wall inside the Simply Seattle store downtown. From Detlef Schrempf to Gary Payton to Ray Allen to Kevin Durant, the jerseys of Sonics legends are still a hot commodity.
“We get people from New Zealand, London, from all over,” store manager Kate Wansley said. “The Sonics are a big thing, and now everyone is excited about what could happen.”
What could happen has many in this Northwest metropolis tense with anticipation. In September, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said the league would address NBA expansion at some point this season, which prompted an already simmering movement in Seattle to bubble over.
Since 2008, Seattle has been waiting, expecting a franchise to return. And now, with overtures of the NBA’s first expansion since 2004, there is an overriding sentiment that Seattle is due.
“There’s just too much karma that says put a team back in Seattle,” says George Karl, who coached the Sonics from 1992-98, leading them to an NBA Finals appearance in 1996. “I don’t know more than anybody else, but my feeling is … that it can happen. It should happen.”
Karl is sipping iced tea and soaking in a picturesque view of Seattle’s Elliott Bay on a sun-splashed Thursday. He lives in Denver but is in town to help promote, support and encourage Seattle’s candidacy should Silver and the NBA Board of Governors decide to proceed with expansion.
As the Seahawks played host to the San Francisco 49ers at Lumen Field, Karl and former Sonics players Dale Ellis and Rashard Lewis attended a social event on the 75th floor of the Columbia Tower that included Seattle mayor Bruce Harrell, Seattle Sports Commission president and CEO Beth Knox and several business leaders.
“It’s a lot of anticipation; I feel like we are hanging on the edge of our seats, waiting,” Knox said. “We are ready.”
The event was important enough for Harrell that he postponed plans for his 66th birthday (he was quick to note he shared his birthday with Sonics legend Gus Williams) so he could spread what he calls “the buzz” about Seattle’s viability for expansion.
“We need to make sure the decision-makers — the NBA commissioner, the administration and co-owners — realize this is a very attractive market, and we have the fan base,” Harrell said. “They sort of know it, but this was 2008 when we lost the team, and we have a whole new generation of people in town, so we need to assure them we have that kind of spirit.”
In September, Silver tempered expectations when he said the league “is not quite ready” to discuss expansion before adding that eventually it will be broached. “What we’ve told interested parties is: ‘Thank you for your interest, we will get back to you,’ ” Silver said. “That’s certainly the case in Seattle.”
Still, hopes haven’t been this high here since 2013, when a bid to relocate the Sacramento Kings to Seattle reached a vote of NBA governors but was turned down 22-8 after Sacramento came up with new ownership.
Ellis, who played for seven NBA teams, said the city’s diversity, food and fan base kept him in Seattle for 20 years after his career ended. The 41-year history of the franchise, which includes the 1979 NBA title, is why he believes so passionately that the league should return. It’s why he flew to Seattle to support Thursday’s movement, a movement that he says stands more than a chance of landing a return of the Sonics.
“Chance? No, it’s going to happen. It’s going to happen,” Ellis said. “They just haven’t made the announcement yet. There will be two franchises, one here in Seattle, and one in Las Vegas.”
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Like so many former Sonics players and coaches, Barry felt he didn’t just play in Seattle, he felt he was part of Seattle. So losing the Sonics felt like losing part of himself.
It is that player-community connection that has made this movement to revive the Sonics unique. Other cities have lost NBA franchises — Vancouver, San Diego, Kansas City — but none have had former players and coaches campaigning for a return like Seattle.
Lewis, who played his first nine NBA seasons with the Sonics, flew into Seattle from Houston motivated by two factors: the history and the fans.
“Seattle has a part of me; I became a man here,” Lewis said. “And the fans … I still remember Big Lo (super fan Lorin Sandretzky), and fans pulling up to the airport when we arrived. There’s history, so much history here, and that’s why they have to have a team here.”
The 1990s in particular were a magical time for Seattle. Microsoft was booming. Bands from Seattle — Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Alice In Chains, Soundgarden — were leading the grunge explosion. “Singles” and “Sleepless in Seattle” hit movie screens. Ken Griffey Jr. was a superstar. And Payton, Kemp and the fiery Karl were headlining SportsCenter highlights.
“It all had this mystical essence to it,” Barry said. “Because nobody wanted to go to the Pacific Northwest. It was so far away, the weather was bad … but there was a lot of cool stuff happening in and around that place. So it had this mystical quality to it.”
Added Karl: “The city was blossoming, the music was blossoming, the city was growing, the Mariners were good … everything was just in rhythm. There was a rhythm that Seattle was cool. Pearl Jam, Starbucks, (Microsoft’s Steve) Ballmer … and (the Sonics) were good.
“Unfortunately, Michael (Jordan) was in the league.”
The electricity between the Sonics and the Seattle scene made for lasting bonds. For fans and the players.
“Spilling out from KeyArena after a game meant that you were in the bloodstream of the city,” said Barry, now an assistant coach with Phoenix. “You got out of the arena and you could walk across the street to Lazy J’s (Jalisco’s) and do karaoke with a bunch of fans who were just at the game. You could go to First Street and hop into a steakhouse and have a meal with fans who just left the game.
“To lose all that … it was a gut punch to a city that loved basketball, loved its team and had a relationship with the team that was unique.”
Portland Trail Blazers play-by-play announcer Kevin Calabro, who announced Sonics games for 22 years, said fans still ask him regularly if and when the Sonics will return, which is attributed to the connection formed during those memorable years in the 1990s.
“You had this great amalgam of cutting-edge technology with the internet coming to life and this great music scene and the Sonics bursting at the seams,” Calabro said. “And it all came together on winter nights at The Barn, as we used to call KeyArena. Jeff Ament (Pearl Jam bassist) was down in the baseline seats all the time, Eddie Vedder (Pearl Jam singer) was around, Screaming Trees … all these bands would show up.
“And when George Karl took over, it just lit a fire. There were so many great characters … and they were all involved with the community. You could feel them, touch them, see them at the clubs, hang with them. It was special.”
Wansley, the store manager who hangs the Sonics jerseys from wall to wall, is a lifelong Seattle resident. She said her deepest bonds are with the Sonics because she experienced them in everyday life. She saw Nate McMillan and Sam Perkins at Bellevue Square, Kemp and Gary in the store, Dana Barros here, Schrempf there.
“It was something that just connects you to them,” Wansley said. “You would go to the game, then see them out … and I don’t know how it is in other cities, but they were just out in the community so much. It would be like, ‘Hey, I just saw you play …’ ”
Seattle has been down this road of anticipation before. The 2013 bid to relocate the Kings to Seattle was so close to happening — and so ugly in its particulars — that its downfall left some scars.
But the overall sentiment today is that Seattle is well positioned, if not a leader when expansion becomes a reality. Much of the optimism stems from Climate Pledge Arena, the refurbished KeyArena, which now houses the NHL’s Seattle Kraken.
“There literally hasn’t been a week where I haven’t been asked about the Sonics or the NBA or how we got screwed,” said Bob Whitsitt, who was president and general manager of the Sonics from 1986-94. “And for years, I said to them — right or wrong — that Seattle was not in a position to even be considered for a team until they have an NBA-ready facility.
“And that giant hurdle has now been cleared with Climate Pledge Arena. As a city, we know we have a facility that works. That doesn’t guarantee you a team, but you can be guaranteed not to get a team by not having a facility. So, the biggest thing has been taken off the board.”
Whitsitt still lives in Seattle and said he is encouraged by a potential ownership group led by Kraken owners David Bonderman and his daughter, Samantha Holloway. Bonderman also is a minority owner of the Boston Celtics.
“My support is behind them,” Whitsitt said. “They are the right ones. They are the perfect people to lead the thing. And the Seattle market is not only great, it is ready.”
Last month, more than 18,000 sold out the LA Clippers and Trail Blazers exhibition game at Climate Pledge Arena, which more than caught the eye of coaches Chauncey Billups of the Blazers and Tyronn Lue of the Clippers.
“I mean, everybody talks about it,” Billups said. “This is obviously a desired city, a market that people love … it makes the most sense. It’s already been very successful, the market has, so it makes a lot of sense. We just have to wait on it.”
Added Lue: “It’s a great environment, a great place to play … they’ve done a great job with this arena.”
Brian Robinson, a Seattle real estate investor, heads Seattle NBA Fans, the group that hosted the event with Karl, Lewis, Ellis and the mayor. He has 250 community leaders and 50 CEOs behind his movement. He also headed a 2010 group that tried to find an arena solution to lure the Sonics back. He said then, it was difficult to get business leaders and companies behind him.
“Now, no one ever says no,” said Robinson, 51. “People see the change in tone from the commissioner and they see a path. Everyone wants to be a part of it. I just feel like the people of Seattle are over the negativity and they are ready to have this journey be something meaningful.”
Mayor Harrell and Knox, the CEO of the Seattle Sports Commission, are envisioning a future where Sonics players become role models and inspire youth to not only participate in basketball, but dream. Seattle has a long history of producing NBA talent, including Brandon Roy, Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, Paolo Banchero and Dejounte Murray. Barry thinks the Sonics can help inspire others.
“How do you dream bigger if you don’t see it in front of you?” Barry asked. “I was thinking if I never went to Golden State games as a kid to watch Chris Mullin, Tim Hardaway and Mitch Richmond, how much of my devotion and love of the game would have been depleted by not having the touch, the autograph, the memories? The impact can’t be overstated.
“There’s almost 20 years of kids in Seattle who never saw one game in their city of LeBron James, one of the greatest players who ever played. Twenty years of kids, and parents for that matter, who haven’t had that community, that environment, that experience. It hurts.”
GO DEEPER
Jamal Crawford, godfather of Seattle hoops, still getting buckets, giving back
Last month, Barry thought back to the day when he penned the “When It Rains” poem. He rifled through his files and found it.
“Even reading it again, I was like, ‘Man, I still feel this way. It sucks,” Barry said. “I was sad. Legitimately sad. But right now, I don’t think there has ever been more sentiment or momentum than right now. And I hope it’s not another carrot in front of the rabbit situation. I hope this momentum is true and honest and there is potential for the green and gold to be back there.”
It was the same thought he had 16 years ago, in San Antonio as he closed his poem.
“… A chapter left unwritten, a generation with a gap,
Forty-one years of NBA action and now no one can clap
But here is a silver lining … above every cloud’s a sun
And the possibility is something we hold on to even if slim to none
For faith and hope and love are tenants
Of the days as one grows old
And for all at stake, those clouds will break
And we will see the green and gold.”
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Steph Chambers, Tim DeFrisco, Otto Greule Jr, Andy Hayt, Jeff Reinking, Terrence Vaccaro / Getty Images)
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