Culture
UCF inquires about USC coach Lincoln Riley: Sources
By Bruce Feldman, Antonio Morales and Ralph Russo
UCF has inquired about the availability of USC coach Lincoln Riley as it searches for a replacement for Gus Malzahn, three people who have been privy to those conversations told The Athletic on Wednesday.
There has been no indication Riley is interested in making the move, the people said. He is three seasons into a reported 10-year contract that pays him about $10 million per year.
The people spoke to The Athletic on condition of anonymity because all the discussions were private and UCF was not publicly revealing details of its coaching search.
Riley’s contract is not publicly available because USC is a private school, but extracting him from Southern California — if he wanted to leave — would likely cost tens of millions of dollars for either the Trojans or the school looking to hire him away.
Representatives from UCF reached out to Riley’s representatives last weekend to inquire about his interest in making a move across the country, one source said. Any discussions about adjusting the terms of Riley’s contract would be between him and USC, sources said.
The first source added that UCF has not received any word from Riley’s camp that he is interested in leaving USC, and the school is still looking at multiple candidates to fill its head coaching vacancy.
Firing Riley, whose win total with the Trojans has decreased in each of his three seasons, would cost USC about $90 million, according to one of the sources. If Riley were to leave for another school, he would owe USC nothing. But UCF is not in position to replicate the deal Riley has at USC. Malzahn made $4 million in 2024 at UCF.
Two sources said even if Riley had an interest in making the move, it would require some payout of his current deal with USC to make up for what he would be giving up in the transition — like a professional sports trade where one team pays a chunk of a player’s remaining salary on a large contract and the receiving team picks up the rest.
Riley was hired at USC by former athletic director Mike Bohn, who resigned amid controversy in the spring of 2023. University president Carol Folt oversaw the hire as well and will retire this summer, which means two of the main parties involved in bringing Riley to USC will be gone.
Jen Cohen, the former Washington athletic director, was hired in August 2023 to lead the athletic department. She inherited Riley and his contract.
She’s in the unenviable position of having an underperforming football program but a coach who is too expensive to move on from. In the spring, Cohen navigated a delicate situation with men’s basketball coach Andy Enfield, whose tenure had run its course but his track record was too good to justify a firing. He eventually took the SMU job, and Cohen hired Eric Musselman from Arkansas to replace him.
Even with a suitor for Riley, getting out from under his deal looks more difficult.
Malzahn left UCF after four seasons as head coach to become offensive coordinator at Florida State. The Knights have gone 10-15 overall and 5-13 in league play in their first two seasons in the Big 12 after making the move from the American Athletic Conference. UCF received only a partial share of Big 12 revenue last year, about $18 million, and is scheduled to receive about $19 million for the 2024-25 fiscal year.
The number jumps to a full share in 2025-26, which should be about double those figures.
Riley is 25-14 at USC since being lured to Los Angeles from Oklahoma after the 2021 regular season. It was a seismic move for the Trojans, swiping away a coach who had a 55-10 record in Norman and two Heisman Trophy winners in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.
The Trojans went 11-3 in Riley’s first season with another Heisman winner in Caleb Williams, the star quarterback who followed the coach from Oklahoma to USC. But the results have been trending in the wrong direction since.
USC went 8-5 in 2023, its final season in the Pac-12, and wrapped up its first regular season in the Big Ten with a 6-6 overall record (4-5 in league play).
After the 2023 season, Riley told The Athletic that he “didn’t come here (USC) for some short-term thing and as long as SC continues to give us the support and the things we need to continue to build this, this was not a two-year rebuild.”
Recruiting hasn’t lived up to the high expectations that came with Riley’s hire. USC continues to regress on the field each season, and the program doesn’t appear to have much direction moving forward, making the outlook for Riley look hazy at best.
(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
Culture
‘The Michael Kay Show’ will move off afternoons, ending an era in New York radio: Sources
The end of a New York sports radio era will conclude as “The Michael Kay Show” will soon broadcast its last program in the afternoon time slot on ESPN New York, sources briefed on the decision told The Athletic.
While Kay will remain on the air in mid-days, the battle between Kay and his ESPN New York cohorts against their nemeses on WFAN that have included Mike Francesa, Chris Russo, Evan Roberts and Craig Carton is now over, signifying the conclusion of what was one of the most entertaining and contentious periods in the history of the medium in New York. The afternoon Kay Show has been on for 22 years.
Nearly two years ago, Kay flirted with leaving afternoons, but ESPN made a big financial push to keep him. This time around, with the ESPN and the radio business evolving, Kay’s desire to work a more manageable schedule earlier in the day and the lack of an overwhelming offer for him to remain in the afternoons were considered decisive factors, according to sources briefed on the discussions.
The final afternoon show is expected to be next Friday, Dec. 13.
Kay, the star of the program that also featured Don La Greca and Peter Rosenberg in its most successful recent stage, is not leaving the airwaves entirely; Kay will become a solo act from 1-3 p.m. ET on ESPN New York, which is streamed on its own app and can be found on 880 AM in New York.
In the afternoons, La Greca and Rosenberg are expected to stay and be joined by former newspaperman turned longtime TV and radio personality, Alan Hahn, though no deals are yet signed.
All the new programs will begin on Jan. 6th.
Hahn has been on locally with former NFL Pro Bowl linebacker Bart Scott from 1-3 p.m. ET. The proposed show with La Graca, Rosenberg and Hahn will be from 3-7 p.m. ET.
The YES simulcast for Kay’s new time slot and afternoons are still to be determined. YES and ESPN have had some preliminary discussions but could not work out a deal until the radio station had its lineup settled. Those discussions should pick up after the agreements are finalized.
ESPN declined to comment.
In the new format, Scott is expected to shift to 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET with Dan Graca. This would knock Mike Greenberg’s national show from 880 AM. This is not as big of a factor as it was when ESPN’s Radio local signal was on the more desirable 98.7 FM.
In New York, ESPN still provides the on-air hosts for the local programs, while Good Karma Brands runs the marketing and advertising departments.
In the morning on ESPN New York, Rick DiPietro and Dave Rothenberg will continue where they have made inroads and gained popularity, though WFAN’s Boomer Esiason and Gregg Giannotti are still the top sports morning show and often are No. 1 rated in all of New York radio.
The fight between the stations, which reached its peak when Kay and Francesa had a war of words that heightened the anticipation of who would win the Nielsen Audio Radio ratings, had already dissipated as, under Good Karma, ESPN New York had discontinued using Neilsen’s tabulations as it focused more on digital growth.
Kay, 63, will continue as the TV voice of the Yankees on YES, but now will be a solo act in mid-days, moving down in the order as a sports radio era in New York ends.
Required reading
(Photo: Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)
Culture
QB future for all 32 NFL teams: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and other intriguing questions
Russell Wilson playing for a new contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks among the top quarterback storylines heading into the 2024 NFL season’s final weeks. There are many others of interest, which makes this a good time to check in on all 32 quarterback situations.
As I usually do this time of year, I’ve grouped all 32 quarterbacks into buckets based on how their teams should feel about them, from “Committed Without Reservation” at one end to “We’re Looking For A Way Out” at the other.
The New York Giants’ current starter (Drew Lock) is not listed, but their former one (Daniel Jones) does appear. I’ve included contract duration and salary rank, along with where each ranks in EPA per pass play among the 40 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season.
1. Committed Without Reservation
We have top-five QBs in their primes, signed to long-term contracts.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Signed thru: 2031 | APY Rank: 12 | QB EPA Rank: 10/40
There’s been an interesting statistical tradeoff for Mahomes in recent weeks. After tossing eight touchdown passes with nine interceptions in the first seven games, the TD-INT ratio has flipped to 11-2 in five subsequent games. His sack rate has also jumped from 5.1 percent to 9.0 percent, while his rate of passes gaining more than 15 yards has dropped. Not that any of these things affect how the Chiefs feel about their quarterback, who leads the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (four) and game-winning drives (six), per Pro Football Reference.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 14 | QB EPA Rank: 4/40
Allen has become the betting favorite for MVP honors in recent weeks and is everything the Bills hoped they were getting when they traded up to draft him in 2018. His sack rate has fallen and his explosive pass rate has risen across all three offensive coordinators during his seven seasons.
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Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Signed thru: 2027 | APY Rank: 8 | QB EPA Rank: 1/40
The Ravens are winning the big bet they made on Jackson when they signed him to an extension before the 2023 season. Jackson’s production, in decline before he signed the deal, has reached new highs. He has 41 more total touchdowns than turnovers since signing the deal, tied with Allen for the best differential in the league. Jackson ranked 21st (+13) across the 2021-22 seasons.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Signed thru: 2029 | APY Rank: 4 | QB EPA Rank: 6/40
Burrow passed for 820 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception in 41-38 and 35-34 defeats to Baltimore this season, capturing the essence of this Bengals season. Cincinnati ranks fifth in offensive EPA per play but only 30th on the defensive side. That is the largest differential between offensive and defensive rankings through Week 13. The other teams with similar disparities include the 8-5 Ravens (-24), 8-5 Commanders (-24) and 6-6 Buccaneers (-23).
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Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Signed thru: 2029 | APY Rank: 7 | QB EPA Rank: 21/40
Herbert was fifth in Quarterback Tiers voting before the 2023 and 2024 seasons despite slipping from Tier 1 to Tier 2 entering 2024. He’s throwing fewer passes and taking more sacks for a team that is winning on defense. It’s difficult to imagine coach Jim Harbaugh straying too far from his run-heavy philosophy.
2. Committed And Hoping The Sky Is The Limit
We think our young QBs can become stars (and there’s some evidence to prove we are right).
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 3 | QB EPA Rank: 13/40
Comparing Love to predecessor Aaron Rodgers would seem unfair if Love weren’t starting his career with similar production.
Rodgers through 27 starts: 64 percent completions, 7.8 yards per attempt, 50 touchdown passes, 18 interceptions
Love through 27 starts: 63 percent completions, 7.4 yards per attempt, 51 touchdown passes, 23 interceptions
The main differences: Rodgers added more EPA on scrambles and lost more EPA on sacks, while Love has lost more on interceptions.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Signed thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 26 | QB EPA Rank: 25/40
To what degree does Stroud’s decline in production from his rookie season reflect a weakened offensive line and injuries at receiver?
That will be a key question heading into next season for the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year.
3. Committed And Content
We have veteran quarterbacks signed for the long term and are happy with the situation.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 6 | QB EPA Rank: 3/40
Goff is proving to be a great good-team quarterback.
Now in his fourth season with Detroit, Goff is replicating his 2018 Super Bowl season with the Rams through 12 games, except he’s throwing the ball less frequently and throwing it shorter, which means a higher completion rate and fewer explosive gains.
Everything else is about the same: the won-lost record (11-1 both years), the passer rating (109.9 then, 109.0 now) and the elevated yards per attempt (9.1 then, 8.8 now).
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 9 | QB EPA Rank: 12/40
The Eagles are 31-4 through the first 12 games of the past three seasons with Hurts in the lineup. The big difference this season is how much more Philadelphia is leaning on its defense and ground game, led by Saquon Barkley.
Hurts, in his first season with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, has attempted 304 passes during the 10-2 start this season, down from 403 during the team’s 10-2 start last season. That’s a drop from 33.5 attempts per game to 25.3 per game.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 10 | QB EPA Rank: 14/40
Murray seems to have matured and is no longer defined by the “homework clause” Arizona put into (and later removed from) the contract extension he signed in July 2022.
After missing parts of the past two seasons with a torn ACL, he has started the first 12 games of a season for the first time since 2020, his second year in the league.
One big difference from then to now: He averaged a career-high 7.6 rushes and scrambles per game then, compared to a career-low 3.9 this season. While he leads the league in ESPN’s Total QBR metric, teams are blitzing Murray much more effectively than in recent seasons.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 1 | QB EPA Rank: 28/40
The Cowboys have had a winning record six times in seven seasons when Prescott started at least half the games and never had a losing season (they were 8-8 in 2019). But the team fell off in 2024, Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury and his new contract is set to count $89 million against the cap in 2025 — his age-32 season — making the future look murkier.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 18 | QB EPA Rank: 11/40
Mayfield has found a home in Tampa and is providing a solid return on the Buccaneers’ three-year, $100 million investment in him. Since joining Tampa Bay last season, he ranks 10th in EPA per pass play and is tied with the Ravens’ Jackson for the league lead in touchdown passes (53).
The Buccaneers have a mediocre record this season (6-6) because the defense ranks 29th in EPA per play. Mayfield has posted career-high totals through 12 games for passing yards (3,034), passing touchdowns (25), passer rating (101.3) and EPA per pass play (0.11). He’s done it for an offense that ranks fifth in points per game (27.2) and sixth in EPA per play.
4. Committed And Content, With No Guarantees
We like our QBs and have them signed beyond this season to deals containing little or no more guaranteed money. This gives us more flexibility to consider our options.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 15 | QB EPA Rank: 17/40
When Stafford sought a new contract last offseason, the Rams gave him $40 million fully guaranteed, with only $4 million in guarantees after this season. That gives the team greater flexibility to move on from Stafford if some combination of age/injury/performance leads the Rams to consider other options. Stafford remains the best option now. His three game-winning drives are his most since having four in 2021.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Signed thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 19 | QB EPA Rank: 23/40
The way this Seahawks season has played out under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, with the team skewing heavily toward the pass and Kenneth Walker III ranking 30th among running backs in rush yards, the focus could fall more on the overall approach than it falls on the person taking snaps from center.
Whatever the case, Smith remains under contract for 2025 under terms favorable to the team, as his $24.8 million in compensation is not guaranteed. That gives the Seahawks flexibility if they decide to consider other options.
Smith had 30 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions in his first season as the Seahawks’ starter (2022). He has 13 and 12, respectively, for an offense that has struggled to find consistency so far this season.
5. Committed With Concerns
We signed our QB to an expensive long-term extension but can’t feel great about it, for different reasons.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 5 | QB EPA Rank: 2/40
The Dolphins struggled to function when Tagovailoa was not available to them, pushing back against perceptions that the quarterback was mostly a product of coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme and the team’s elite weaponry.
The team has averaged 0.09 EPA per play on offense with Tagovailoa, compared with -0.32 per play without him. That is the difference between being a top-five offense this season and being more than twice as bad as the last-ranked one (Cleveland at -0.15).
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins paid a heavy price for learning more about the quarterback’s value. The concussion he suffered against Buffalo in Week 2 spurred another round of questions about his long-term health and viability as a quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Signed thru: 2030 | APY Rank: 2 | QB EPA Rank: 27/40
There’s little evidence Lawrence can overcome tough situations, or that the Jaguars can help him enough to ensure success, but the team still entered into a $275 million extension with him before the season, when there was no looming deadline to do so.
GO DEEPER
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Here’s where Lawrence ranks in EPA per pass play: 25th since 2021, 20th since 2022, 25th since 2023 and 24th this season. He’ll likely remain among the top five in average annual salary for years to come. Can he close the gap?
6. Committed Until No Longer Committed
Our veteran starters could be on the way out, for different reasons.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 16 | QB EPA Rank: 9/40
The Saints’ next coach will likely help decide what course the team follows at quarterback after this season. Releasing Carr could be difficult given the team’s salary-cap situation, but all options would seem to be on the table as the club sets a new course. Designating him a post-June 1 release would make the most sense if the Saints decide to cut ties.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Signed thru: 2027 | APY Rank: 13 | QB EPA Rank: 16/40
Cousins could be running out of chances to reverse a recent slide in production. How long before first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. becomes the best option? It seems fitting that this career crossroads has Cousins returning to Minnesota against his former team in Week 14. Here’s hoping Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is miked up during pregame, at least.
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Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Signed thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 17 | QB EPA Rank: 29/40
Rodgers’ contract has a $35 million option for 2025. It’s difficult to see the Jets exercising it when a franchise refresh seems appropriate and Rodgers, who just turned 41, has lost athleticism.
As disappointing as this Jets season has been from a quarterback standpoint, this might be worse: The team’s 88.2 passer rating is its second-best through 12 games since 2008.
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7. Committed, But At What Value?
Our QB has earned an extension, but recent events have raised questions about the price.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Signed thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 84 | QB EPA Rank: 7/40
Purdy, with less than $3 million in career earnings, has a $1.1 million salary in 2024. He’s been the NFL’s biggest bargain over the past two-plus seasons and should be in line for a big raise, but how big?
Six weeks ago, the conversation revolved around whether Purdy might cash in for $60 million per year. But as the season slips away and some of Purdy’s physical limitations surface, could the 49ers decide to wait? Could they pursue more of a compromise deal, in the spirit of what Green Bay did with Love in 2023? There’s time to figure out something.
8. Lots to Play For Down The Stretch With Contract Talks Ahead
The veteran we signed on the cheap will command an extension if this keeps up.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 63 | QB EPA Rank: 8/40
The one-year, $1.2 million deal Wilson signed with the Steelers (while still collecting $37.8 million from Denver on his previous deal) ranks as the biggest bargain in the league this season.
Wilson’s passing production in six starts projects to 4,706 yards with 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions over a 17-game schedule. The final five games deliver some difficult defenses, but with the Steelers all but assured a playoff berth, Wilson has a great opportunity to make Pittsburgh his longer-term home.
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9. Evaluating: Long Runways
Our first-round rookies are just getting started.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 24 | QB EPA Rank: 5/40
This season has showcased Daniels’ dual-threat prowess along with some preexisting durability concerns, but Washington must be very happy with its selection of Daniels overall. His EPA per pass play ranks fifth through 13 starts among all rookies since 2000, per TruMedia. Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Prescott rank higher. Wilson, Herbert and Stroud rank sixth through eighth, respectively. That is good company for Daniels.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 22 | QB EPA Rank: 30/40
Williams has gone from ranking among the bottom 10 in EPA per pass play under former coordinator Shane Waldron to ranking among the top 10 after three games with Thomas Brown in the role. Whether that is sustainable, the uptick has been encouraging for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft. Who will be coaching Williams for the long term?
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Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 39 | QB EPA Rank: 26/40
Nix has feasted on the AFC West and NFC South, combining for 15 touchdown passes with one interception in eight games, including six Denver victories. He ranks among the top 10 in a range of passing categories, including EPA per pass play, since Week 8.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 25 | QB EPA Rank: 22/40
Maye has less around him than the other first-round rookie quarterbacks, one reason the Patriots were reluctant to start him right away. He has arguably outperformed expectations given that context, shifting the focus away from him and onto what New England must do to help him in the coming offseason.
10. Evaluating: Clock Is Ticking
We haven’t given up on the 2023 first-round picks we benched, but there’s some urgency.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Benched after only two games this season, Young has played well enough in five games since his return to renew hope for his future. The Panthers are 2-3 and averaging 21.4 offensive points per game since Young’s return. They had a 2-16 record while averaging 11.2 points per game on offense in his previous 18 starts.
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Signed thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 23 | QB EPA Rank: 34/40
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Signed thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 29 | QB EPA Rank: 31/40
The Colts were much worse on offense during the two games Joe Flacco started than they were previously or since Richardson returned to the lineup for the past three games. Richardson remains a low-percentage passer capable of the spectacular but is still seeking consistency. How patient will the Colts be in developing him?
11. Evaluating: Need An Alternative
Our young QB could play his way into a future with us, but it’s looking like we’ll be in the market for an upgrade.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 53 | QB EPA Rank: 35/40
The Titans’ current coaching staff inherited Levis and could keep him but presumably would not want to bet its future on him, given the returns so far. Can Levis finish strong?
Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 71 | QB EPA Rank: 15/40
The Raiders had O’Connell on their roster entering this season and preferred signing Gardner Minshew for $12.5 million per year. Can O’Connell play his way into their future plans over the remaining five games? His 340-yard game at Kansas City was a start.
12. Thank You For Your Service (And The Future Comp Pick)
We’re grateful for our QB but committed to a different one.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 21 | QB EPA Rank: 19/40
The assumption here is that Darnold has played well enough to earn an opportunity greater than what the Vikings can promise him in 2025, when first-round pick J.J. McCarthy returns from knee surgery to presumably claim the starting job.
13. Likely Headed to Free Agency as a Bridge Starter/Backup
There will be a market for these veterans, but not necessarily as the undisputed starter.
Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 42 | QB EPA Rank: 20/40
The Browns are averaging 21.8 offensive points per game when Winston starts after averaging 13.4 when Deshaun Watson was in the lineup earlier in the season. Their rate of explosive pass plays has more than doubled from 8.4 percent with Watson to 17.8 percent with Winston.
It’s possible the Browns or another team will project Winston as a starter next season. The two pick sixes Winston threw against Denver on Monday night tempered some of the recent enthusiasm.
Daniel Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 90 | QB EPA Rank: 32/40
Jones could fill the Darnold role for the Vikings next season if Darnold finds a better opportunity elsewhere. He could also test the market, although additional time with O’Connell in Minnesota could be good for his career longer term.
14. We’re Looking For A Way Out
Help! Our quarterback could not start for any team, but we owe him more than $90 million over the next two seasons.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 11 | QB EPA Rank: 40/40
The worst contract in NFL history isn’t getting better soon enough for the Browns. Watson, out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, is scheduled to count $72.9 million against the cap in each of the next two seasons. Those figures could be manipulated in various ways, but Watson is getting his money regardless, unless he violates the contract in some way.
GO DEEPER
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(Top photo of Russell Wilson, left, and Aaron Rodgers: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)
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Culture
5 potential College Football Playoff underdogs favorites should fear including…Alabama?
College football has seen its fair share of underdog stories over the years. But too many of them occurred in September or in bowl games that counted for little more than pride. At long last, we’re on the brink of a new era. On Sunday, a genuine playoff bracket will be revealed, the first of its kind in FBS history (sorry, a four-team invitational doesn’t count).
With it comes the introduction of one of the most compelling aspects of sports: the chance for meaningful upsets. And, per our past research charting commonalities from upsets across sports, the most likely team to pull off one of those upsets (should they make the field) is Alabama.
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: What will Sunday’s final bracket look like?
Upsets are our niche, dating all the way back to 2006, when we launched the Giant Killers model that projects NCAA Tournament upsets (you know it as Bracket Breakers now). Over the years, we have expanded our reach to identify worthy underdogs in events ranging from the World Cup to the Olympics to the NFL. But all of those competitions had historical data we could analyze in our search for trends.
It will take time to build a robust model unique to the brand new College Football Playoff. (How much of an edge does a first-round home game provide? How much does an underdog’s conference matter in its chances of pulling off an upset?) In the meantime, we can still apply what we’ve learned about upsets in other sports, starting with three key premises that have proven true in just about any sport we have studied.
1. Some underdogs are underrated and under-seeded
Find teams whose underlying statistical strengths outweigh their records, and you’ll pinpoint squads that are likely to overperform in the future. In this case, that leads you to that plucky squad known as … the Alabama Crimson Tide. It also highlights how the current format won’t allow some of the most dangerous teams into the field. More on that later.
2. The best underdogs play high-risk, high-reward styles
Inviting greater variance into the upset equation boosts the chances an underdog can clip a superior opponent. For longshots, inconsistency is a good thing. To examine this, we have looked at the weekly shifts in every FBS team’s basic power rating this season, after adjusting for the strength of their opponents. Our Variability Index measures which programs have the widest range of game-to-game outcomes. Kansas has the craziest gyrations among Power 4 teams, beating BYU and Colorado before getting wiped out by Baylor in the past three weeks.
3. Luck tends to regress to the mean over time
It pays to target underdogs that have been victims of bad fortune, and attack favorites who have received more than their fair share of good breaks. Teamrankings.com measures this by comparing team records with scoring margins. Their Luck Rankings call UCF the unluckiest team in the country: The Knights went just 4-8 but scored 42 points more than their opponents this season.
With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the teams currently sitting on the CFP bubble. We’ll define that as teams that have a realistic chance of playing a first-round road game. We’re not concerned with which teams are most deserving of a bid; we want to know which have the best chance of pulling off a major upset, whether that’s a 12-seed winning a road game against the 5-seed, or a 9-seed taking out the No. 1 team in the quarterfinals.
We will be able to take a deeper dive once we have matchups. And we can address teams that don’t offer particularly strong or weak upset chances – Miami and Clemson, specifically – should they find their way into the bracket. But for now, here are five potential underdogs that favorites should want to avoid and four they should hope to face.
Good dogs
Ole Miss and Alabama
Hey, don’t blame us for shoehorning a couple of the biggest powerhouses in the country into the role of plucky underdogs. The top conferences have expanded to the point where their highly ranked teams can’t all play one another. And the CFP selection committee still hasn’t made its mission clear: Is it out to reward the teams that accomplished the most, or the teams that would make the strongest contenders moving forward?
It’s nearly inevitable for some of the best Power 4 also-rans to end up underseeded. It was also entirely foreseeable, too. Back in May, Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione asked, “[What] if a team has had a great season and played the toughest schedule in the season and has marquee wins but ends up with a 9-3 record?” So here we are.
No. 1 Oregon has gone 12-0 while scoring 422 points and allowed 194, for a 228-point differential. Alabama is at plus-219 (426-207) against a significantly tougher schedule. Ole Miss is at plus-283 (450-167) against a comparably difficult schedule.
GO DEEPER
How much does the CFP committee punish losing a conference title game?
The Crimson Tide have been unfortunate, winning six games by more than three touchdowns apiece while losing two by a touchdown or fewer. They rate 105th in the luck rankings.
The Rebels fare considerably worse than that, ranking 119th. They’ve walloped South Carolina and Georgia, but sustained three losses by a total of 13 points. Their pre-Thanksgiving game against Florida, where Ole Miss outgained the Gators 464 yards to 344 and had more red zone chances but lost, 24-17, was a particular horror show of uncharacteristic turnovers and fluky plays.
In fact, our Variability Index says Ole Miss has been one of the most consistent teams in the country, with the smallest spread among their very best and very worst performances. The Rebels’ weekly swings have been almost completely due to the strength of their opponents and (mostly bad) luck.
Whatever system you pick — Massey, ESPN’s SP+, the Simple Rating System, etc. — predictive analytics see both Alabama and Ole Miss as top-10 teams. It looks like Ole Miss is out, but if either of these two get in, all we can say is: Favorites, beware.
SMU
SMU enters Saturday night’s ACC Championship Game against Clemson as a 2.5-point favorite. If the Mustangs win, they could land the No. 3 seed.
If they lose, they can still make the Playoff, but probably as the 11- or 12-seed. It’s through that lens that we’re looking at them as a potential underdog. And in that scenario, their slingshot would be very dangerous. SMU ranks 30th in the nation in our Variability Index, the second-highest among all bubble teams — and not because their results have been bouncing all over the place, but because they’ve been improving by leaps and bounds.
SMU entered the national polls after beating Louisville on Oct. 5, and the Mustangs have continued to rise nearly every week since then, pulverizing ACC opponents by ever-increasing margins. In November, they won all four games by double-digits with an average margin of victory of 22.75 points.
SMU has been outstanding in the trenches, rushing for 177.9 yards while allowing just 95.8 per game. (Clemson, for comparison, is at 190.6 and 150.3.) And fairly quietly, quarterback Kevin Jennings has put together a season where he ranks 10th in the country in passer rating.
Point is, SMU is a top-10 team that’s unpredictable because it’s been getting better. If the Mustangs land in the lower reaches of the CFP, they’ll make one hot dog.
Indiana
By now, you know about Indiana’s astounding offense. The Hoosiers have hung 40 or more points on opponents eight times this season. QB Kurtis Rourke has a passer rating of 181.4, and WR Elijah Sarratt is nicknamed “Waffle House” because he’s always open, and he doesn’t even lead the team in yards per reception. That would be Omar Cooper Jr., who leads the country with 21.1 yards a catch.
But Indiana has also allowed just 14.7 points per game, the seventh-lowest total among FBS teams. The Hoosiers’ scoring margin (plus-344) is so huge that analytics systems see them as a top-10 team despite their middling schedule and a loss in their one true test at Ohio State.
Indiana has also had big swings: half a dozen games where they demolished opponents (beating Nebraska by 49, Michigan State by 37), and a handful of others where they won by merely comfortable margins (beating Northwestern by 17, Maryland by 14). Overall, the Hoosiers rank fifth in the country in our Variability Index, the highest among teams with a chance to make the CFP. So they’re very strong and very variable. Even on the road, that’s a recipe for seriously threatening a higher seed.
South Carolina
The Gamecocks aren’t likely to get in the field, but they represent another interesting case when viewed through the underdog lens.
In contrast to Alabama and Ole Miss, the Gamecocks haven’t been unlucky. If anything, their record is slightly better than their season-long numbers. But like SMU, they have been inconsistent because they have been getting better. South Carolina ranks 37th in the country in our Variability Index, second-highest among bubble teams, and you can see why: After three conference losses, including a blowout by Ole Miss, in a four-game stretch, this team turned around and whipped Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, and then overcame Missouri and Clemson by narrow margins.
All the while, South Carolina’s defense has been raising its game. Kyle Kennard now leads the nation with 11.5 sacks and 16 tackles for losses. Nick Emmanwori and Jalon Kilgore have eight interceptions between them. The Gamecocks have allowed just 15.3 points per game over the second half of this season. They’ve already shown that, at their best, they can play with anybody, and they’re showing at the end of the season their best is getting better. Alas, they probably won’t make the field.
Bad dogs
Boise State or UNLV
First things first: Boise State may not even get an opportunity to be a true underdog. Should the Broncos beat UNLV for the Mountain West title, they are likely to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 or even No. 3 seed. That’s despite ranking just 21st in ESPN’s SP+ rankings. Then again, despite being the higher seed, they should be a significant underdog in the quarterfinals if the No. 5 seed (potentially Penn State or Notre Dame) advances. And the Broncos don’t have the profile of a team that should pose much of a threat.
As we’ve stressed, variability is a key ingredient in an upset. Low floors don’t matter: They are the difference between losing by three or 30. But high ceilings generate unlikely outcomes. Boise State is the antithesis of that type of team. From week to week, the Broncos’ opponent-adjusted power rating has changed (up or down) by an average of only 0.88 points, the smallest bounce in the entire country. They’re also 14th in the nation in “luck” meaning they have likely overperformed against an underwhelming schedule.
Yes, the Broncos took Oregon to the wire in September. And sure, they have Ashton Jeanty doing jaw-dropping things. But the metrics say Boise State’s highest level simply isn’t good enough, and that’s still better than UNLV’s!
The Rebels are ranked in the 30s by most rating systems (and 42nd by Massey), so it’s not like they’re some sort of sleeping giant. They rank in the top half of the country in terms of good luck, and are only in the middle of the pack in our Variability Index. UNLV simply isn’t a Playoff-worthy team and, if they shock Boise State in the Mountain West title game, the Rebels’ stay will be brief.
Iowa State or Arizona State
Whichever team wins the Big 12 Championship Game should savor the moment because it won’t last long. There’s a reason why the CFP committee has consistently ranked Boise State ahead of whichever team has led the Big 12 most of the season. The conference is really weak.
According to ESPN’s SP+ rankings, BYU is the best of the bunch (20th), but the Cougars won’t play for the conference championship. Iowa State ranks 24th – one spot ahead of 6-6 USC. And Arizona State is 39th!
It’s not just that these teams are mediocre (by playoff standards). They also don’t compensate with strong underdog traits. Both teams have been extremely fortunate: The Sun Devils rank ninth in the country in luck rating, and the Cyclones are 15th. Their level of play is also steady. Arizona State is in the top 40 of most consistent teams in the country, which is nice when you’re trying to beat the likes of Kansas and TCU, but not when you need a ceiling-game to beat Notre Dame. Iowa State is the third-most consistent team in the country.
Neither team did much in its nonconference games, unless you’re impressed by Iowa State’s one-point win over Iowa in September or Arizona State’s seven-point win over 2-10 Mississippi State.
In short, one of these teams will win the Big 12, likely play the No. 5 seed on the road … and lose.
(Illustration by Eamonn Dalton; photo of Kevin Jennings: Sam Hodde/Getty Images; photo of Ashton Jeanty: Brandon Vallance / ISI Photos / Getty Images; photo of Jalen Milroe: Jason Clark / Getty Images)
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