Culture
UCF inquires about USC coach Lincoln Riley: Sources
By Bruce Feldman, Antonio Morales and Ralph Russo
UCF has inquired about the availability of USC coach Lincoln Riley as it searches for a replacement for Gus Malzahn, three people who have been privy to those conversations told The Athletic on Wednesday.
There has been no indication Riley is interested in making the move, the people said. He is three seasons into a reported 10-year contract that pays him about $10 million per year.
The people spoke to The Athletic on condition of anonymity because all the discussions were private and UCF was not publicly revealing details of its coaching search.
Riley’s contract is not publicly available because USC is a private school, but extracting him from Southern California — if he wanted to leave — would likely cost tens of millions of dollars for either the Trojans or the school looking to hire him away.
Representatives from UCF reached out to Riley’s representatives last weekend to inquire about his interest in making a move across the country, one source said. Any discussions about adjusting the terms of Riley’s contract would be between him and USC, sources said.
The first source added that UCF has not received any word from Riley’s camp that he is interested in leaving USC, and the school is still looking at multiple candidates to fill its head coaching vacancy.
Firing Riley, whose win total with the Trojans has decreased in each of his three seasons, would cost USC about $90 million, according to one of the sources. If Riley were to leave for another school, he would owe USC nothing. But UCF is not in position to replicate the deal Riley has at USC. Malzahn made $4 million in 2024 at UCF.
Two sources said even if Riley had an interest in making the move, it would require some payout of his current deal with USC to make up for what he would be giving up in the transition — like a professional sports trade where one team pays a chunk of a player’s remaining salary on a large contract and the receiving team picks up the rest.
Riley was hired at USC by former athletic director Mike Bohn, who resigned amid controversy in the spring of 2023. University president Carol Folt oversaw the hire as well and will retire this summer, which means two of the main parties involved in bringing Riley to USC will be gone.
Jen Cohen, the former Washington athletic director, was hired in August 2023 to lead the athletic department. She inherited Riley and his contract.
She’s in the unenviable position of having an underperforming football program but a coach who is too expensive to move on from. In the spring, Cohen navigated a delicate situation with men’s basketball coach Andy Enfield, whose tenure had run its course but his track record was too good to justify a firing. He eventually took the SMU job, and Cohen hired Eric Musselman from Arkansas to replace him.
Even with a suitor for Riley, getting out from under his deal looks more difficult.
Malzahn left UCF after four seasons as head coach to become offensive coordinator at Florida State. The Knights have gone 10-15 overall and 5-13 in league play in their first two seasons in the Big 12 after making the move from the American Athletic Conference. UCF received only a partial share of Big 12 revenue last year, about $18 million, and is scheduled to receive about $19 million for the 2024-25 fiscal year.
The number jumps to a full share in 2025-26, which should be about double those figures.
Riley is 25-14 at USC since being lured to Los Angeles from Oklahoma after the 2021 regular season. It was a seismic move for the Trojans, swiping away a coach who had a 55-10 record in Norman and two Heisman Trophy winners in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.
The Trojans went 11-3 in Riley’s first season with another Heisman winner in Caleb Williams, the star quarterback who followed the coach from Oklahoma to USC. But the results have been trending in the wrong direction since.
USC went 8-5 in 2023, its final season in the Pac-12, and wrapped up its first regular season in the Big Ten with a 6-6 overall record (4-5 in league play).
After the 2023 season, Riley told The Athletic that he “didn’t come here (USC) for some short-term thing and as long as SC continues to give us the support and the things we need to continue to build this, this was not a two-year rebuild.”
Recruiting hasn’t lived up to the high expectations that came with Riley’s hire. USC continues to regress on the field each season, and the program doesn’t appear to have much direction moving forward, making the outlook for Riley look hazy at best.
(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
Culture
Lewis Hamilton’s final F1 lap with Mercedes: A year of challenges, a decade of triumphs
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — Atop the Mercedes hospitality unit at the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, cooled by nearby fans working hard in the midday heat, Lewis Hamilton sat at a table with his race engineer, Peter Bonnington, for some pre-race weekend planning.
It was a routine they’d been through plenty of times before — 245 times, in fact — but the 246th time carried a little more emotion. After 12 years, 84 race wins and six world championships, marking it the most successful driver-team partnership in F1 history, this was the last race weekend for Hamilton as a Mercedes driver.
Hamilton’s conversations with Bonnington, affectionately known as ‘Bono’ and someone Hamilton has likened to a brother, remained as professional as ever. They knew there was a job to do. But speaking a few hours later, the seven-time world champion admitted these chats involved an extra degree of emotion.
“You’re sitting there, and you’re realizing these are the last moments with the team, which is … it’s hard to describe the feeling,” Hamilton said. “It’s not the greatest, of course, but I think mostly I’m just really proud of what we’ve achieved.”
The ‘last dance’ for Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes has been ten months in the making. On Feb. 1, Hamilton announced he would move to Ferrari for 2025, securing the 39-year-old a last blast in F1’s iconic red cars to end his glittering career. Abu Dhabi was always going to be a significant grand prix.
But at the end of a taxing year on the track, filled with the highs of victory at Silverstone and Spa to the late-season lows, both Hamilton and Mercedes are committed to ending with a celebration.
“It’s a really beautiful journey you go on together,” Hamilton said. “And being that it was so long, the emotions run so deep.”
Toto Wolff, the Mercedes team principal, had an inkling of what was coming when Hamilton arrived at his Oxfordshire home for their pre-season catch-up.
Fred Vasseur, Ferrari’s F1 chief and a close friend of Wolff’s, hadn’t replied to a text asking if he was “taking our driver,” and the father of Carlos Sainz, who Hamilton would replace, had tipped off the Mercedes boss that something might be happening.
Looking back on Thursday, Hamilton admitted to it being an “awkward” meeting with Wolff to break the news that their partnership would end. Only eight months earlier, they’d agreed on a contract extension that appeared to reaffirm their commitment, one Hamilton had previously envisaged lasting long beyond his time racing in F1 was over. Their joint work on campaigns to assist long overdue change concerning diversity and equality in F1 is a legacy that means more to Hamilton than his racing achievements.
It also made for a year he admitted that he “massively underestimated” from an emotional point of view. “It was straining on the relationship very early on; (it) took time for people to get past it,” Hamilton admitted. “And then just for my own self, it’s been a very emotional year for me. And I think I’ve not been at my best in handling and dealing with those emotions.”
Hamilton has always worn his heart on his sleeve, evidenced by the tears that flowed after ending his two-and-a-half-year win drought at Silverstone. The intimacy of his relationship with Mercedes permits a brutal honesty that has survived significant disappointments — like his 2016 title loss to teammate Nico Rosberg or, more controversially, what happened in Abu Dhabi three years ago when he missed out on a record eighth world title.
Wolff has always liked to prod at any open wounds, knowing that is often the only way to understand how to make a situation better. He felt that Hamilton and Mercedes had “done a good job” handling the emotions of this year.
“When he took the decision at the beginning of the season to go, we knew it could be a bumpy year ahead,” Wolff said in Qatar. “He knows he’s going to go somewhere else. We know our future lies with Kimi (Antonelli). To go through the ups and downs and still keep it together between us, that is something we have achieved.”
“I’m just slow.”
For these words to be uttered by a seven-time world champion might seem fanciful. But there was a degree of resignation as Hamilton digested a difficult Friday of practice for the Qatar Grand Prix, where he couldn’t feel the car giving him back the kind of performance he needed. It continued a season-long trend.
For much of the year, the Mercedes W15 car hadn’t gelled to his driving style or allowed him to extract the kind of pace that he’d needed, particularly over a single lap. Through 23 races this season, Hamilton trails George Russell 18-5 in their qualifying head-to-head and is 24 points behind in the drivers’ standings.
The day after Hamilton made that comment, when he’d qualified sixth in Qatar while Russell was P2 and almost half a second quicker, he was asked to expand on it. Did he really mean that he’s lost the edge? Is this a sign of the decline most elite drivers and sports stars encounter as they near their forties?
“I know I’ve still got it,” Hamilton said. “(It’s) just the car won’t go a bit faster. I definitely know I’ve got it still. It’s not a question in my mind. (I’m) looking forward to the end.”
It wasn’t the first time Hamilton had given such a bleak outlook. After the race in Brazil, where he’d lagged to 10th in rainy conditions while Russell had been in the mix for victory prior to the red flag, he admitted he “could happily go and take a holiday” instead of doing the final triple-header. In Las Vegas, when the W15 came alive in the cold and allowed Mercedes to sweep to a 1-2, Hamilton seemed downbeat that he’d not been the one to lead it home after qualifying down in P10 while Russell was on pole.
“These last races, maybe even the whole season, was clearly not what we expected,” Wolff said in Qatar. “That car is a handful to drive on its worst days.”
But how much of that has hurt Hamilton in a way that it has not for Russell? Wolff put part of it down to Hamilton’s driving style. “One of his strengths is how he’s always able to brake late and attack the corner, and the car can’t take it,” he said, adding that when the grip kicks in the slow-speed corners, the problem worsens. “Then if the car slides more and it lacks grip, that contributes to (him) probably suffering more than George.”
In Qatar, Vasseur said he was “not at all” concerned by the form of his incoming star signee. “Have a look on the 50 laps that he did in Vegas, starting P10 (and) finishing on the gearbox of Russell,” Vasseur said. “I’m not worried at all.”
The progress made by Ferrari this year, recovering from its mid-season slump to put up a late fight to McLaren for the constructors’ title, will also encourage Hamilton that he can rekindle more of his old form. He stressed on Thursday that while his focus remains on Mercedes for his final weekend, there was a natural excitement building about the next chapter.
“It really sparks motivation,” Hamilton said, “and it’s a dream scenario for any driver to have an opportunity like this. I don’t take that for granted.”
Whenever Hamilton hangs up his helmet and calls time on his enormously successful career, this period with Mercedes will be the lasting, most definitive part of his racing legacy.
When he decided in 2012 to make a shock move away from McLaren, then consistently one of F1’s leading teams, it was scoffed at as a mistake: a step into the midfield, away from the team that had brought Hamilton up to F1, and into the unknown.
It proved to be the right move at the right time. McLaren was about to start a decade-long decline, while Mercedes was on the verge of starting a record-breaking F1 dynasty with Hamilton as the centerpiece.
The move also allowed Hamilton to become himself. His evolution from a 27-year-old one-time champion into one of F1’s elder statesmen, on the cusp of his 40th birthday with seven world titles to his name, with interests and a celebrity status stretching far beyond this paddock, has been impressive.
On the entrance to Mercedes’ garage for this weekend at the Yas Marina Circuit are two large pictures of Hamilton, one from Hungary 2013 — his first win for Mercedes — and the second from Silverstone this year, arguably the most emotional of his record 104 victories. Across it reads the message: “Every dream needs a team.”
Even the challenges of this year and the difficulty of a year-long goodbye will not diminish what Hamilton and Mercedes built together.
“Nothing is going to take away 12 incredible years with eight constructors’ and six drivers’ championships,” Wolff said. “That is what will be the memory, and after next Sunday, we’re going to look back on this great period of time rather than a season or races that were particularly bad.
“We will stay with the good memories.”
Good memories. Historic memories. So heavy in emotion that, when the checkered flag drops for Hamilton on Sunday night and he hoists himself out of a Mercedes F1 car for the final time, they will surely come flooding back.
Top photo: Chris Graythen/Getty Images, Clive Rose/Getty Images; Design: Meech Robinson/The Athletic
Culture
‘The Michael Kay Show’ will move off afternoons, ending an era in New York radio: Sources
The end of a New York sports radio era will conclude as “The Michael Kay Show” will soon broadcast its last program in the afternoon time slot on ESPN New York, sources briefed on the decision told The Athletic.
While Kay will remain on the air in mid-days, the battle between Kay and his ESPN New York cohorts against their nemeses on WFAN that have included Mike Francesa, Chris Russo, Evan Roberts and Craig Carton is now over, signifying the conclusion of what was one of the most entertaining and contentious periods in the history of the medium in New York. The afternoon Kay Show has been on for 22 years.
Nearly two years ago, Kay flirted with leaving afternoons, but ESPN made a big financial push to keep him. This time around, with the ESPN and the radio business evolving, Kay’s desire to work a more manageable schedule earlier in the day and the lack of an overwhelming offer for him to remain in the afternoons were considered decisive factors, according to sources briefed on the discussions.
The final afternoon show is expected to be next Friday, Dec. 13.
Kay, the star of the program that also featured Don La Greca and Peter Rosenberg in its most successful recent stage, is not leaving the airwaves entirely; Kay will become a solo act from 1-3 p.m. ET on ESPN New York, which is streamed on its own app and can be found on 880 AM in New York.
In the afternoons, La Greca and Rosenberg are expected to stay and be joined by former newspaperman turned longtime TV and radio personality, Alan Hahn, though no deals are yet signed.
All the new programs will begin on Jan. 6th.
Hahn has been on locally with former NFL Pro Bowl linebacker Bart Scott from 1-3 p.m. ET. The proposed show with La Graca, Rosenberg and Hahn will be from 3-7 p.m. ET.
The YES simulcast for Kay’s new time slot and afternoons are still to be determined. YES and ESPN have had some preliminary discussions but could not work out a deal until the radio station had its lineup settled. Those discussions should pick up after the agreements are finalized.
ESPN declined to comment.
In the new format, Scott is expected to shift to 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET with Dan Graca. This would knock Mike Greenberg’s national show from 880 AM. This is not as big of a factor as it was when ESPN’s Radio local signal was on the more desirable 98.7 FM.
In New York, ESPN still provides the on-air hosts for the local programs, while Good Karma Brands runs the marketing and advertising departments.
In the morning on ESPN New York, Rick DiPietro and Dave Rothenberg will continue where they have made inroads and gained popularity, though WFAN’s Boomer Esiason and Gregg Giannotti are still the top sports morning show and often are No. 1 rated in all of New York radio.
The fight between the stations, which reached its peak when Kay and Francesa had a war of words that heightened the anticipation of who would win the Nielsen Audio Radio ratings, had already dissipated as, under Good Karma, ESPN New York had discontinued using Neilsen’s tabulations as it focused more on digital growth.
Kay, 63, will continue as the TV voice of the Yankees on YES, but now will be a solo act in mid-days, moving down in the order as a sports radio era in New York ends.
Required reading
(Photo: Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire)
Culture
QB future for all 32 NFL teams: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and other intriguing questions
Russell Wilson playing for a new contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks among the top quarterback storylines heading into the 2024 NFL season’s final weeks. There are many others of interest, which makes this a good time to check in on all 32 quarterback situations.
As I usually do this time of year, I’ve grouped all 32 quarterbacks into buckets based on how their teams should feel about them, from “Committed Without Reservation” at one end to “We’re Looking For A Way Out” at the other.
The New York Giants’ current starter (Drew Lock) is not listed, but their former one (Daniel Jones) does appear. I’ve included contract duration and salary rank, along with where each ranks in EPA per pass play among the 40 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season.
1. Committed Without Reservation
We have top-five QBs in their primes, signed to long-term contracts.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Signed thru: 2031 | APY Rank: 12 | QB EPA Rank: 10/40
There’s been an interesting statistical tradeoff for Mahomes in recent weeks. After tossing eight touchdown passes with nine interceptions in the first seven games, the TD-INT ratio has flipped to 11-2 in five subsequent games. His sack rate has also jumped from 5.1 percent to 9.0 percent, while his rate of passes gaining more than 15 yards has dropped. Not that any of these things affect how the Chiefs feel about their quarterback, who leads the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (four) and game-winning drives (six), per Pro Football Reference.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 14 | QB EPA Rank: 4/40
Allen has become the betting favorite for MVP honors in recent weeks and is everything the Bills hoped they were getting when they traded up to draft him in 2018. His sack rate has fallen and his explosive pass rate has risen across all three offensive coordinators during his seven seasons.
GO DEEPER
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Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Signed thru: 2027 | APY Rank: 8 | QB EPA Rank: 1/40
The Ravens are winning the big bet they made on Jackson when they signed him to an extension before the 2023 season. Jackson’s production, in decline before he signed the deal, has reached new highs. He has 41 more total touchdowns than turnovers since signing the deal, tied with Allen for the best differential in the league. Jackson ranked 21st (+13) across the 2021-22 seasons.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Signed thru: 2029 | APY Rank: 4 | QB EPA Rank: 6/40
Burrow passed for 820 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception in 41-38 and 35-34 defeats to Baltimore this season, capturing the essence of this Bengals season. Cincinnati ranks fifth in offensive EPA per play but only 30th on the defensive side. That is the largest differential between offensive and defensive rankings through Week 13. The other teams with similar disparities include the 8-5 Ravens (-24), 8-5 Commanders (-24) and 6-6 Buccaneers (-23).
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Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Signed thru: 2029 | APY Rank: 7 | QB EPA Rank: 21/40
Herbert was fifth in Quarterback Tiers voting before the 2023 and 2024 seasons despite slipping from Tier 1 to Tier 2 entering 2024. He’s throwing fewer passes and taking more sacks for a team that is winning on defense. It’s difficult to imagine coach Jim Harbaugh straying too far from his run-heavy philosophy.
2. Committed And Hoping The Sky Is The Limit
We think our young QBs can become stars (and there’s some evidence to prove we are right).
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 3 | QB EPA Rank: 13/40
Comparing Love to predecessor Aaron Rodgers would seem unfair if Love weren’t starting his career with similar production.
Rodgers through 27 starts: 64 percent completions, 7.8 yards per attempt, 50 touchdown passes, 18 interceptions
Love through 27 starts: 63 percent completions, 7.4 yards per attempt, 51 touchdown passes, 23 interceptions
The main differences: Rodgers added more EPA on scrambles and lost more EPA on sacks, while Love has lost more on interceptions.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Signed thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 26 | QB EPA Rank: 25/40
To what degree does Stroud’s decline in production from his rookie season reflect a weakened offensive line and injuries at receiver?
That will be a key question heading into next season for the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year.
3. Committed And Content
We have veteran quarterbacks signed for the long term and are happy with the situation.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 6 | QB EPA Rank: 3/40
Goff is proving to be a great good-team quarterback.
Now in his fourth season with Detroit, Goff is replicating his 2018 Super Bowl season with the Rams through 12 games, except he’s throwing the ball less frequently and throwing it shorter, which means a higher completion rate and fewer explosive gains.
Everything else is about the same: the won-lost record (11-1 both years), the passer rating (109.9 then, 109.0 now) and the elevated yards per attempt (9.1 then, 8.8 now).
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 9 | QB EPA Rank: 12/40
The Eagles are 31-4 through the first 12 games of the past three seasons with Hurts in the lineup. The big difference this season is how much more Philadelphia is leaning on its defense and ground game, led by Saquon Barkley.
Hurts, in his first season with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, has attempted 304 passes during the 10-2 start this season, down from 403 during the team’s 10-2 start last season. That’s a drop from 33.5 attempts per game to 25.3 per game.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 10 | QB EPA Rank: 14/40
Murray seems to have matured and is no longer defined by the “homework clause” Arizona put into (and later removed from) the contract extension he signed in July 2022.
After missing parts of the past two seasons with a torn ACL, he has started the first 12 games of a season for the first time since 2020, his second year in the league.
One big difference from then to now: He averaged a career-high 7.6 rushes and scrambles per game then, compared to a career-low 3.9 this season. While he leads the league in ESPN’s Total QBR metric, teams are blitzing Murray much more effectively than in recent seasons.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 1 | QB EPA Rank: 28/40
The Cowboys have had a winning record six times in seven seasons when Prescott started at least half the games and never had a losing season (they were 8-8 in 2019). But the team fell off in 2024, Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury and his new contract is set to count $89 million against the cap in 2025 — his age-32 season — making the future look murkier.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 18 | QB EPA Rank: 11/40
Mayfield has found a home in Tampa and is providing a solid return on the Buccaneers’ three-year, $100 million investment in him. Since joining Tampa Bay last season, he ranks 10th in EPA per pass play and is tied with the Ravens’ Jackson for the league lead in touchdown passes (53).
The Buccaneers have a mediocre record this season (6-6) because the defense ranks 29th in EPA per play. Mayfield has posted career-high totals through 12 games for passing yards (3,034), passing touchdowns (25), passer rating (101.3) and EPA per pass play (0.11). He’s done it for an offense that ranks fifth in points per game (27.2) and sixth in EPA per play.
4. Committed And Content, With No Guarantees
We like our QBs and have them signed beyond this season to deals containing little or no more guaranteed money. This gives us more flexibility to consider our options.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 15 | QB EPA Rank: 17/40
When Stafford sought a new contract last offseason, the Rams gave him $40 million fully guaranteed, with only $4 million in guarantees after this season. That gives the team greater flexibility to move on from Stafford if some combination of age/injury/performance leads the Rams to consider other options. Stafford remains the best option now. His three game-winning drives are his most since having four in 2021.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Signed thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 19 | QB EPA Rank: 23/40
The way this Seahawks season has played out under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, with the team skewing heavily toward the pass and Kenneth Walker III ranking 30th among running backs in rush yards, the focus could fall more on the overall approach than it falls on the person taking snaps from center.
Whatever the case, Smith remains under contract for 2025 under terms favorable to the team, as his $24.8 million in compensation is not guaranteed. That gives the Seahawks flexibility if they decide to consider other options.
Smith had 30 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions in his first season as the Seahawks’ starter (2022). He has 13 and 12, respectively, for an offense that has struggled to find consistency so far this season.
5. Committed With Concerns
We signed our QB to an expensive long-term extension but can’t feel great about it, for different reasons.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 5 | QB EPA Rank: 2/40
The Dolphins struggled to function when Tagovailoa was not available to them, pushing back against perceptions that the quarterback was mostly a product of coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme and the team’s elite weaponry.
The team has averaged 0.09 EPA per play on offense with Tagovailoa, compared with -0.32 per play without him. That is the difference between being a top-five offense this season and being more than twice as bad as the last-ranked one (Cleveland at -0.15).
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins paid a heavy price for learning more about the quarterback’s value. The concussion he suffered against Buffalo in Week 2 spurred another round of questions about his long-term health and viability as a quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Signed thru: 2030 | APY Rank: 2 | QB EPA Rank: 27/40
There’s little evidence Lawrence can overcome tough situations, or that the Jaguars can help him enough to ensure success, but the team still entered into a $275 million extension with him before the season, when there was no looming deadline to do so.
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Here’s where Lawrence ranks in EPA per pass play: 25th since 2021, 20th since 2022, 25th since 2023 and 24th this season. He’ll likely remain among the top five in average annual salary for years to come. Can he close the gap?
6. Committed Until No Longer Committed
Our veteran starters could be on the way out, for different reasons.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 16 | QB EPA Rank: 9/40
The Saints’ next coach will likely help decide what course the team follows at quarterback after this season. Releasing Carr could be difficult given the team’s salary-cap situation, but all options would seem to be on the table as the club sets a new course. Designating him a post-June 1 release would make the most sense if the Saints decide to cut ties.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Signed thru: 2027 | APY Rank: 13 | QB EPA Rank: 16/40
Cousins could be running out of chances to reverse a recent slide in production. How long before first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. becomes the best option? It seems fitting that this career crossroads has Cousins returning to Minnesota against his former team in Week 14. Here’s hoping Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is miked up during pregame, at least.
GO DEEPER
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Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Signed thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 17 | QB EPA Rank: 29/40
Rodgers’ contract has a $35 million option for 2025. It’s difficult to see the Jets exercising it when a franchise refresh seems appropriate and Rodgers, who just turned 41, has lost athleticism.
As disappointing as this Jets season has been from a quarterback standpoint, this might be worse: The team’s 88.2 passer rating is its second-best through 12 games since 2008.
GO DEEPER
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7. Committed, But At What Value?
Our QB has earned an extension, but recent events have raised questions about the price.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Signed thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 84 | QB EPA Rank: 7/40
Purdy, with less than $3 million in career earnings, has a $1.1 million salary in 2024. He’s been the NFL’s biggest bargain over the past two-plus seasons and should be in line for a big raise, but how big?
Six weeks ago, the conversation revolved around whether Purdy might cash in for $60 million per year. But as the season slips away and some of Purdy’s physical limitations surface, could the 49ers decide to wait? Could they pursue more of a compromise deal, in the spirit of what Green Bay did with Love in 2023? There’s time to figure out something.
8. Lots to Play For Down The Stretch With Contract Talks Ahead
The veteran we signed on the cheap will command an extension if this keeps up.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 63 | QB EPA Rank: 8/40
The one-year, $1.2 million deal Wilson signed with the Steelers (while still collecting $37.8 million from Denver on his previous deal) ranks as the biggest bargain in the league this season.
Wilson’s passing production in six starts projects to 4,706 yards with 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions over a 17-game schedule. The final five games deliver some difficult defenses, but with the Steelers all but assured a playoff berth, Wilson has a great opportunity to make Pittsburgh his longer-term home.
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9. Evaluating: Long Runways
Our first-round rookies are just getting started.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 24 | QB EPA Rank: 5/40
This season has showcased Daniels’ dual-threat prowess along with some preexisting durability concerns, but Washington must be very happy with its selection of Daniels overall. His EPA per pass play ranks fifth through 13 starts among all rookies since 2000, per TruMedia. Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Prescott rank higher. Wilson, Herbert and Stroud rank sixth through eighth, respectively. That is good company for Daniels.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 22 | QB EPA Rank: 30/40
Williams has gone from ranking among the bottom 10 in EPA per pass play under former coordinator Shane Waldron to ranking among the top 10 after three games with Thomas Brown in the role. Whether that is sustainable, the uptick has been encouraging for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft. Who will be coaching Williams for the long term?
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Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 39 | QB EPA Rank: 26/40
Nix has feasted on the AFC West and NFC South, combining for 15 touchdown passes with one interception in eight games, including six Denver victories. He ranks among the top 10 in a range of passing categories, including EPA per pass play, since Week 8.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 25 | QB EPA Rank: 22/40
Maye has less around him than the other first-round rookie quarterbacks, one reason the Patriots were reluctant to start him right away. He has arguably outperformed expectations given that context, shifting the focus away from him and onto what New England must do to help him in the coming offseason.
10. Evaluating: Clock Is Ticking
We haven’t given up on the 2023 first-round picks we benched, but there’s some urgency.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Benched after only two games this season, Young has played well enough in five games since his return to renew hope for his future. The Panthers are 2-3 and averaging 21.4 offensive points per game since Young’s return. They had a 2-16 record while averaging 11.2 points per game on offense in his previous 18 starts.
GO DEEPER
NFL QB stock report, Week 14: Insight into Bryce Young’s revival; Kirk Cousins still Falcons’ QB1?
Signed thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 23 | QB EPA Rank: 34/40
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Signed thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 29 | QB EPA Rank: 31/40
The Colts were much worse on offense during the two games Joe Flacco started than they were previously or since Richardson returned to the lineup for the past three games. Richardson remains a low-percentage passer capable of the spectacular but is still seeking consistency. How patient will the Colts be in developing him?
11. Evaluating: Need An Alternative
Our young QB could play his way into a future with us, but it’s looking like we’ll be in the market for an upgrade.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 53 | QB EPA Rank: 35/40
The Titans’ current coaching staff inherited Levis and could keep him but presumably would not want to bet its future on him, given the returns so far. Can Levis finish strong?
Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 71 | QB EPA Rank: 15/40
The Raiders had O’Connell on their roster entering this season and preferred signing Gardner Minshew for $12.5 million per year. Can O’Connell play his way into their future plans over the remaining five games? His 340-yard game at Kansas City was a start.
12. Thank You For Your Service (And The Future Comp Pick)
We’re grateful for our QB but committed to a different one.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 21 | QB EPA Rank: 19/40
The assumption here is that Darnold has played well enough to earn an opportunity greater than what the Vikings can promise him in 2025, when first-round pick J.J. McCarthy returns from knee surgery to presumably claim the starting job.
13. Likely Headed to Free Agency as a Bridge Starter/Backup
There will be a market for these veterans, but not necessarily as the undisputed starter.
Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 42 | QB EPA Rank: 20/40
The Browns are averaging 21.8 offensive points per game when Winston starts after averaging 13.4 when Deshaun Watson was in the lineup earlier in the season. Their rate of explosive pass plays has more than doubled from 8.4 percent with Watson to 17.8 percent with Winston.
It’s possible the Browns or another team will project Winston as a starter next season. The two pick sixes Winston threw against Denver on Monday night tempered some of the recent enthusiasm.
Daniel Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 90 | QB EPA Rank: 32/40
Jones could fill the Darnold role for the Vikings next season if Darnold finds a better opportunity elsewhere. He could also test the market, although additional time with O’Connell in Minnesota could be good for his career longer term.
14. We’re Looking For A Way Out
Help! Our quarterback could not start for any team, but we owe him more than $90 million over the next two seasons.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 11 | QB EPA Rank: 40/40
The worst contract in NFL history isn’t getting better soon enough for the Browns. Watson, out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, is scheduled to count $72.9 million against the cap in each of the next two seasons. Those figures could be manipulated in various ways, but Watson is getting his money regardless, unless he violates the contract in some way.
GO DEEPER
Deshaun Watson and a Browns escape plan (once they finally admit it’s over): Sando’s Pick Six
(Top photo of Russell Wilson, left, and Aaron Rodgers: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)
The story of the greatest players in NFL history. In 100 riveting profiles, top football writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NFL in the process.
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