College football has seen its fair share of underdog stories over the years. But too many of them occurred in September or in bowl games that counted for little more than pride. At long last, we’re on the brink of a new era. On Sunday, a genuine playoff bracket will be revealed, the first of its kind in FBS history (sorry, a four-team invitational doesn’t count).

With it comes the introduction of one of the most compelling aspects of sports: the chance for meaningful upsets. And, per our past research charting commonalities from upsets across sports, the most likely team to pull off one of those upsets (should they make the field) is Alabama.

Upsets are our niche, dating all the way back to 2006, when we launched the Giant Killers model that projects NCAA Tournament upsets (you know it as Bracket Breakers now). Over the years, we have expanded our reach to identify worthy underdogs in events ranging from the World Cup to the Olympics to the NFL. But all of those competitions had historical data we could analyze in our search for trends.

It will take time to build a robust model unique to the brand new College Football Playoff. (How much of an edge does a first-round home game provide? How much does an underdog’s conference matter in its chances of pulling off an upset?) In the meantime, we can still apply what we’ve learned about upsets in other sports, starting with three key premises that have proven true in just about any sport we have studied.

1. Some underdogs are underrated and under-seeded

Find teams whose underlying statistical strengths outweigh their records, and you’ll pinpoint squads that are likely to overperform in the future. In this case, that leads you to that plucky squad known as … the Alabama Crimson Tide. It also highlights how the current format won’t allow some of the most dangerous teams into the field. More on that later.

2. The best underdogs play high-risk, high-reward styles

Inviting greater variance into the upset equation boosts the chances an underdog can clip a superior opponent. For longshots, inconsistency is a good thing. To examine this, we have looked at the weekly shifts in every FBS team’s basic power rating this season, after adjusting for the strength of their opponents. Our Variability Index measures which programs have the widest range of game-to-game outcomes. Kansas has the craziest gyrations among Power 4 teams, beating BYU and Colorado before getting wiped out by Baylor in the past three weeks.

3. Luck tends to regress to the mean over time

It pays to target underdogs that have been victims of bad fortune, and attack favorites who have received more than their fair share of good breaks. Teamrankings.com measures this by comparing team records with scoring margins. Their Luck Rankings call UCF the unluckiest team in the country: The Knights went just 4-8 but scored 42 points more than their opponents this season.

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the teams currently sitting on the CFP bubble. We’ll define that as teams that have a realistic chance of playing a first-round road game. We’re not concerned with which teams are most deserving of a bid; we want to know which have the best chance of pulling off a major upset, whether that’s a 12-seed winning a road game against the 5-seed, or a 9-seed taking out the No. 1 team in the quarterfinals.

We will be able to take a deeper dive once we have matchups. And we can address teams that don’t offer particularly strong or weak upset chances – Miami and Clemson, specifically – should they find their way into the bracket. But for now, here are five potential underdogs that favorites should want to avoid and four they should hope to face.

Good dogs

Ole Miss and Alabama

Hey, don’t blame us for shoehorning a couple of the biggest powerhouses in the country into the role of plucky underdogs. The top conferences have expanded to the point where their highly ranked teams can’t all play one another. And the CFP selection committee still hasn’t made its mission clear: Is it out to reward the teams that accomplished the most, or the teams that would make the strongest contenders moving forward?

It’s nearly inevitable for some of the best Power 4 also-rans to end up underseeded. It was also entirely foreseeable, too. Back in May, Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione asked, “[What] if a team has had a great season and played the toughest schedule in the season and has marquee wins but ends up with a 9-3 record?” So here we are.

No. 1 Oregon has gone 12-0 while scoring 422 points and allowed 194, for a 228-point differential. Alabama is at plus-219 (426-207) against a significantly tougher schedule. Ole Miss is at plus-283 (450-167) against a comparably difficult schedule.

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The Crimson Tide have been unfortunate, winning six games by more than three touchdowns apiece while losing two by a touchdown or fewer. They rate 105th in the luck rankings.

The Rebels fare considerably worse than that, ranking 119th. They’ve walloped South Carolina and Georgia, but sustained three losses by a total of 13 points. Their pre-Thanksgiving game against Florida, where Ole Miss outgained the Gators 464 yards to 344 and had more red zone chances but lost, 24-17, was a particular horror show of uncharacteristic turnovers and fluky plays.

In fact, our Variability Index says Ole Miss has been one of the most consistent teams in the country, with the smallest spread among their very best and very worst performances. The Rebels’ weekly swings have been almost completely due to the strength of their opponents and (mostly bad) luck.

Whatever system you pick — Massey, ESPN’s SP+, the Simple Rating System, etc. — predictive analytics see both Alabama and Ole Miss as top-10 teams. It looks like Ole Miss is out, but if either of these two get in, all we can say is: Favorites, beware.

SMU

SMU enters Saturday night’s ACC Championship Game against Clemson as a 2.5-point favorite. If the Mustangs win, they could land the No. 3 seed.

If they lose, they can still make the Playoff, but probably as the 11- or 12-seed. It’s through that lens that we’re looking at them as a potential underdog. And in that scenario, their slingshot would be very dangerous. SMU ranks 30th in the nation in our Variability Index, the second-highest among all bubble teams — and not because their results have been bouncing all over the place, but because they’ve been improving by leaps and bounds.

SMU entered the national polls after beating Louisville on Oct. 5, and the Mustangs have continued to rise nearly every week since then, pulverizing ACC opponents by ever-increasing margins. In November, they won all four games by double-digits with an average margin of victory of 22.75 points.

SMU has been outstanding in the trenches, rushing for 177.9 yards while allowing just 95.8 per game. (Clemson, for comparison, is at 190.6 and 150.3.) And fairly quietly, quarterback Kevin Jennings has put together a season where he ranks 10th in the country in passer rating.

Point is, SMU is a top-10 team that’s unpredictable because it’s been getting better. If the Mustangs land in the lower reaches of the CFP, they’ll make one hot dog.

Indiana

By now, you know about Indiana’s astounding offense. The Hoosiers have hung 40 or more points on opponents eight times this season. QB Kurtis Rourke has a passer rating of 181.4, and WR Elijah Sarratt is nicknamed “Waffle House” because he’s always open, and he doesn’t even lead the team in yards per reception. That would be Omar Cooper Jr., who leads the country with 21.1 yards a catch.

But Indiana has also allowed just 14.7 points per game, the seventh-lowest total among FBS teams. The Hoosiers’ scoring margin (plus-344) is so huge that analytics systems see them as a top-10 team despite their middling schedule and a loss in their one true test at Ohio State.

Indiana has also had big swings: half a dozen games where they demolished opponents (beating Nebraska by 49, Michigan State by 37), and a handful of others where they won by merely comfortable margins (beating Northwestern by 17, Maryland by 14). Overall, the Hoosiers rank fifth in the country in our Variability Index, the highest among teams with a chance to make the CFP. So they’re very strong and very variable. Even on the road, that’s a recipe for seriously threatening a higher seed.

South Carolina

The Gamecocks aren’t likely to get in the field, but they represent another interesting case when viewed through the underdog lens.

In contrast to Alabama and Ole Miss, the Gamecocks haven’t been unlucky. If anything, their record is slightly better than their season-long numbers. But like SMU, they have been inconsistent because they have been getting better. South Carolina ranks 37th in the country in our Variability Index, second-highest among bubble teams, and you can see why: After three conference losses, including a blowout by Ole Miss, in a four-game stretch, this team turned around and whipped Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, and then overcame Missouri and Clemson by narrow margins.

All the while, South Carolina’s defense has been raising its game. Kyle Kennard now leads the nation with 11.5 sacks and 16 tackles for losses. Nick Emmanwori and Jalon Kilgore have eight interceptions between them. The Gamecocks have allowed just 15.3 points per game over the second half of this season. They’ve already shown that, at their best, they can play with anybody, and they’re showing at the end of the season their best is getting better. Alas, they probably won’t make the field.

Bad dogs

Boise State or UNLV

First things first: Boise State may not even get an opportunity to be a true underdog. Should the Broncos beat UNLV for the Mountain West title, they are likely to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 or even No. 3 seed. That’s despite ranking just 21st in ESPN’s SP+ rankings. Then again, despite being the higher seed, they should be a significant underdog in the quarterfinals if the No. 5 seed (potentially Penn State or Notre Dame) advances. And the Broncos don’t have the profile of a team that should pose much of a threat.

As we’ve stressed, variability is a key ingredient in an upset. Low floors don’t matter: They are the difference between losing by three or 30. But high ceilings generate unlikely outcomes. Boise State is the antithesis of that type of team. From week to week, the Broncos’ opponent-adjusted power rating has changed (up or down) by an average of only 0.88 points, the smallest bounce in the entire country. They’re also 14th in the nation in “luck” meaning they have likely overperformed against an underwhelming schedule.

Yes, the Broncos took Oregon to the wire in September. And sure, they have Ashton Jeanty doing jaw-dropping things. But the metrics say Boise State’s highest level simply isn’t good enough, and that’s still better than UNLV’s!

The Rebels are ranked in the 30s by most rating systems (and 42nd by Massey), so it’s not like they’re some sort of sleeping giant. They rank in the top half of the country in terms of good luck, and are only in the middle of the pack in our Variability Index. UNLV simply isn’t a Playoff-worthy team and, if they shock Boise State in the Mountain West title game, the Rebels’ stay will be brief.

Iowa State or Arizona State

Whichever team wins the Big 12 Championship Game should savor the moment because it won’t last long. There’s a reason why the CFP committee has consistently ranked Boise State ahead of whichever team has led the Big 12 most of the season. The conference is really weak.

According to ESPN’s SP+ rankings, BYU is the best of the bunch (20th), but the Cougars won’t play for the conference championship. Iowa State ranks 24th – one spot ahead of 6-6 USC. And Arizona State is 39th!

It’s not just that these teams are mediocre (by playoff standards). They also don’t compensate with strong underdog traits. Both teams have been extremely fortunate: The Sun Devils rank ninth in the country in luck rating, and the Cyclones are 15th. Their level of play is also steady. Arizona State is in the top 40 of most consistent teams in the country, which is nice when you’re trying to beat the likes of Kansas and TCU, but not when you need a ceiling-game to beat Notre Dame. Iowa State is the third-most consistent team in the country.

Neither team did much in its nonconference games, unless you’re impressed by Iowa State’s one-point win over Iowa in September or Arizona State’s seven-point win over 2-10 Mississippi State.

In short, one of these teams will win the Big 12, likely play the No. 5 seed on the road … and lose.

(Illustration by Eamonn Dalton; photo of Kevin Jennings: Sam Hodde/Getty Images; photo of Ashton Jeanty: Brandon Vallance / ISI Photos / Getty Images; photo of Jalen Milroe: Jason Clark / Getty Images)

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — A particular element of the Chiefs offense this season has led coach Andy Reid to smile and chuckle multiple times.

“He’s been doing it for a few years,” Reid said Monday of tight end Travis Kelce. “We do it in practice every day. This isn’t just something that we throw out there on game day. It’s something we do. Everything is OK with that — just as long as you complete them.”

Kelce, a 12th-year veteran, has a pretty unassailable resume. He’s a future Hall of Famer, a three-time Super Bowl champion and a tight end who holds the record for the most touchdown receptions in Chiefs history (76, along with Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez).

This season, though, Kelce has added another wrinkle to his game: He has perfected the lateral pass.

In the Chiefs’ win Friday over the rival Las Vegas Raiders, Kelce’s most memorable highlight came when he avoided being tackled in the middle of the field by pitching the ball backward to running back Samaje Perine, who then gained a critical first down.

“Yeah, man, right place, right time,” Kelce said on Wednesday’s episode of “New Heights,” the podcast he hosts with his brother, Jason. “I’m happy it worked. … This is just an instinct that I had and I’m lucky we were able to get a fresh set of downs.”

Kelce hasn’t gotten in trouble with Reid this season because he’s successfully executed his two lateral attempts, tossing the ball to Perine each time to help the Chiefs reach the red zone.

“It started off as kind of a joke,” quarterback Patrick Mahomes said of Kelce’s combination of skill and boldness. “Now, it’s become a thing. As long as he completes it, Coach is going to keep letting him do it.”

THE RETURN OF THE LATERAL‼️ pic.twitter.com/tdHOScHOLH

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 29, 2024

That thing helped the Chiefs score their lone touchdown against the Raiders in the second quarter, just before the two-minute warning. On third-and-10 just outside the red zone, Mahomes completed a short pass to Kelce, who immediately made eye contact with Perine, who released from the backfield into the flat. With an unusual motion, Kelce jumped forward and threw a pass as if he were Mahomes, a perfect spiral to Perine.

The Arrowhead Stadium crowd roared as Perine finished the play with a 15-yard gain. Perine acknowledged Kelce by pointing back to him like an NBA player acknowledging his point guard after an assist on a fast break.

“Don’t forget, he was a (high school) quarterback,” Amazon Prime analyst Kirk Herbstreit said of Kelce after the highlight. “That’s a no-look (pass). That’s just a feel. That’s something you mess around with at a practice, and it gets so comfortable that all of a sudden you’re able to unveil that and do that in a game. That ball is pitched perfectly.”

Three plays later, Mahomes threw a perfect lob pass to receiver Justin Watson for a six-yard touchdown.

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After the game, some analysts and fans wondered if Kelce’s lateral was a designed part of the Chiefs’ play call.

“It’s not designed at all,” Mahomes said. “(Kelce’s) the only person who would do it. I know sometimes it looks (designed), but it’s more of him just being in this offense for so long that he knows where guys are that are running different routes.”

Mahomes said he hoped that Kelce gained at least eight yards on the play, so he could persuade Reid to let the offense stay on the field for fourth down.

A similar scenario occurred in early October in the Chiefs’ win over the New Orleans Saints. In the second quarter, the Chiefs faced a third-and-21 snap. Mahomes threw a short pass to Kelce, who attracted three defenders in the middle of the field before making an underhand pitch to Perine.

Kelce with the pitch on 3rd & 22 😂

📺: #NOvsKC on ESPN
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/PW8dXNhIrx

— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2024

“I saw it and I was like, ‘Dang!’” right guard Trey Smith said after that game. “That’s classic Kelce, just to make a play when the team needs it. It was really dope, man. Every time you see something like that, it’s really cool.”

The Chiefs gained 20 yards on the play, leading Reid to keep the offense on the field to convert a fourth-and-1 snap to continue the drive.

“It was not scripted, I tell you that much,” Perine said smiling. “I saw him doing it a couple of times in practice. I was just staying (ready) just in case. Sure enough, I saw him switch the ball (to his right hand) and wind his arm back. I was ready for it.”

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The first time Kelce attempted a lateral was in the Chiefs’ 2019 championship season in a comeback victory over the Detroit Lions. With the Chiefs near midfield, Mahomes started the fourth quarter rolling to his right before connecting with Kelce, who caught the ball in the intermediate area of the field. Realizing he was about to get tackled before he could gain yards after his reception, Kelce flipped the ball back to running back LeSean McCoy, who gained an additional 23 yards for a 33-yard highlight. The Chiefs finished the drive with a 1-yard touchdown run.

Not counting end-of-game desperation, Kelce has lateraled the ball to a teammate five times since the start of the 2019 season, according to TruMedia. Other than the Chiefs, only six teams have had more offensive lateral plays than Kelce himself in that span. And just four teams have more in the first half than Kelce’s four.

“It’s the most underused rule in the game,” Kelce said of the lateral on his podcast. “I think I heard (NFL Network broadcaster) Rich Eisen mention that early on in my career. I was like, ‘Damn, he ain’t lying, man, that s— would be sweet if we were out here just f—— flipping it around every single play.’  That’s what football used to be.”

Travis Kelce is dangerous in the middle of the field because he can predict where defenders should be and can gauge the spacing between them and his teammates. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

Kelce knows the best scenarios to unleash his trick. He has enough experience to anticipate when the opposing defense will play a soft zone coverage. He also has caught enough passes in the middle of the field during his career to predict where certain defenders should be and the spacing between them and his teammates.

“Or you catch them in man-to-man (coverage) and you beat your defender and now, all of a sudden, you know there’s only one guy for every other route around you,” Kelce said on the podcast. “That’s what happened (against) Buffalo, ironically, last year.”

It didn’t count, but Kelce’s lateral late in the fourth quarter in a loss to the Bills last season was probably his greatest mid-play assist.

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Kelce surprised everyone at Arrowhead when he threw an across-the-field lateral to receiver Kadarius Toney, who appeared to score the go-ahead touchdown while fans released unbridled cheers. The viral highlight, however, was marred by a penalty: Toney began the play offside as he lined up in the neutral zone.

“Honestly, man, it was such a bang-bang (decision),” Kelce said on the podcast a few days after the game. “I caught (the ball), turned upfield, saw the single-high safety and knew it was man coverage and knew I broke the contain angle of the guy chasing me.

“When I broke the safety’s angle, I knew there was only one (defender) left on that side of the field. I knew (Toney) was over there from the route he ran and I saw him out of the corner of my eye in a lateral position. I knew if I could get him the ball, I knew he had space to score a touchdown.”

TRAVIS KELCE LATERAL TO TONEY GETS CALLED BACK 😭

(via @NFL)
https://t.co/KIYYNAopAy

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 11, 2023

The next time Kelce tried a lateral was in late July during training camp. During team periods, Kelce experimented with arm angles — underhanded, an end-over-end pitch and a two-hand chest pass — for his laterals to running back Isiah Pacheco.

Perine, a seventh-year veteran, joined the Chiefs on Aug. 30, less than a week before the team played its season opener against the Baltimore Ravens. In his first practice with the Chiefs, Perine was stunned when Kelce lateraled the ball to him.

“He’s playing backyard football,” Perine said smiling. “Just to experience it firsthand, it was crazy. But it’s fun.”

(Photo: Jay Biggerstaff / Imagn Images)

The College Football Playoff selection committee made the words of their chairman from a week earlier look silly, and they should all be commended for it.

To a point.

To the point of the Miami Hurricanes being eliminated from CFP contention with Tuesday’s penultimate rankings. That’s the big thing the 13-person committee got right Tuesday, and it came off as a pleasant surprise after several weeks of overrating the Canes, after chair Warde Manuel seemed to telegraph that the relative weakness of Miami’s profile would not count against it.

“Teams can only play the (conference) schedule that’s in front of them,” Manuel said after the previous rankings. “They can only play the opponents that they have. So we take the stance that we’re going to really look at these games, we’re going to look at the stats, we’re going to look at the strength of schedule, but we’re also going to look at how teams are performing against the competition that they have. From our perspective, if it was just about strength of schedule, we wouldn’t be needed.”

That comment came before Miami lost 42-38 at Syracuse. Still, it could have been used to justify keeping the 10-2 Hurricanes in, and it almost did. They dropped from No. 6 to No. 12, with 9-3 Alabama jumping two spots to No. 11 and taking the last at-large bid as of now — if No. 17 Clemson beats No. 8 SMU in the ACC title game, SMU could hang in and bump Alabama out.

In penalizing Miami, the committee thought beyond the simplicity of counting loss totals, valued good wins over “good losses” and ejected a team with a poor strength of schedule and no ranked wins. It’s not Miami’s fault that it didn’t play Clemson and SMU this season, but it’s not to Miami’s credit either.

It is to the credit, or good fortune, of The SEC Three — three-loss Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina — that they played and beat better teams than Miami. The Hurricanes should have dropped below all of them, which has nothing to do with ACC/SEC and everything to do with body of work.

Also, the more I look at it, the more I think No. 13 Ole Miss should have received the nod over Alabama. That one is very, very close. No. 14 South Carolina has a case, too, but when it’s this tight and the Gamecocks lost to Alabama and Ole Miss, the head-to-head results should register and differentiate. And they did.

Really ?? ….what put Bama over the top of Miami for the last spot in is that Miami went 1-2 in their last 3 games (by an average of 4.5 pts, to a ranked Syracuse and GT team that just took UGA to 8OT). Bama went 2-1 (to 5-7 Auburn, destroyed by OU, and beat FCS Mercer)

— Dan Radakovich (@DanRadakovich) December 4, 2024

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First, let’s celebrate the positive, all due respect to Miami. The committee seemed in previous rankings to be valuing those confounding “good losses” over quality wins (that’s still the case with Penn State, for the record). As someone who has done the mock NCAA men’s basketball selection process and has observed that process for a long time, wins mean more to that committee than losses. That committee, in essence, asks: “Can this team win games in this tournament?”

Miami could have done damage. Certainly, Cam Ward and the Hurricanes can score, leading the nation at 44.2 points per game. ESPN’s Heather Dinich, who covers the committee, noted it “likes this offense and Cam Ward” in predicting Miami would make the cut Tuesday.

Ward is second in the nation at 343.6 passing yards per game, behind only Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord — has anyone mentioned recently he once played for Ohio State? — at 360.5 per game. McCord helped those numbers with a cool 380 and three touchdowns in Saturday’s upset of the Hurricanes to push 9-3 Cuse into the rankings at No. 22.

That dropped Miami to 60th nationally in scoring defense (23.9) and 42nd in yards per play allowed (5.19). Against a schedule ranked No. 68 in The Athletic analyst Austin Mock’s metric.

Sure, the most recent outing to cost Miami a spot in the ACC title game was a close loss, just like a 28-23 loss to 7-5 Georgia Tech on Nov. 9. But the Hurricanes’ best win this season continues to be a 52-45 escape of a Louisville team that couldn’t quite sneak back into the rankings after thumping rival Kentucky.

The SEC Three also could only play the schedules that were in front of them, and Ole Miss came away with a 28-10 home win over No. 5 Georgia and a 27-3 road win over South Carolina. Alabama beat Georgia 41-34, South Carolina 27-25 and No. 19 Missouri 34-0, all at home.

South Carolina might be playing as well as anyone — and that’s something the committee should be discussing as well. Is a team getting better or worse? South Carolina and Miami, for example, would appear to be teams going in different directions. South Carolina just beat Clemson 17-14 on the road. The Gamecocks also beat Missouri 34-30 and newly unranked Texas A&M 44-20.

All of those wins from The SEC Three are better than any of Miami’s wins. Transitive football does tell us Miami crushed 7-5 Florida on the road, 41-17, while Ole Miss blew it by losing 24-17 at Florida on Nov. 23. That counts as the other mentionable win on Miami’s schedule, but anyone who has watched Florida this season also sees dramatic improvement from September to November.

Ole Miss also lost at home to 4-8 Kentucky, which is bad. And had a 29-26 loss at LSU, which isn’t. I give Ole Miss the edge over Alabama (which is a change from the 12 I submitted after Saturday’s results, for the record) based on current quality of play.

Alabama lost 40-35 at 6-6 Vanderbilt, 24-17 at No. 7 Tennessee and, recently and alarmingly, 24-3 at 6-6 Oklahoma. That one pushes Ole Miss ahead in my mind. South Carolina actually has the best losses, to the other two of The SEC Three, and to LSU. Again, wins beating losses. Yay, committee.

Strength of schedule rankings? South Carolina 12, Alabama 19, Ole Miss 51. Maybe that’s the difference for Alabama. I don’t think it’s brand name, though I expect Lane Kiffin to amplify all such complaints from Ole Miss fans in the days to come.

It’s just so close. Certainly closer than Miami compared with any of the three.

(Photo of Mario Cristobal: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)