Culture
UCF inquires about USC coach Lincoln Riley: Sources
By Bruce Feldman, Antonio Morales and Ralph Russo
UCF has inquired about the availability of USC coach Lincoln Riley as it searches for a replacement for Gus Malzahn, three people who have been privy to those conversations told The Athletic on Wednesday.
There has been no indication Riley is interested in making the move, the people said. He is three seasons into a reported 10-year contract that pays him about $10 million per year.
The people spoke to The Athletic on condition of anonymity because all the discussions were private and UCF was not publicly revealing details of its coaching search.
Riley’s contract is not publicly available because USC is a private school, but extracting him from Southern California — if he wanted to leave — would likely cost tens of millions of dollars for either the Trojans or the school looking to hire him away.
Representatives from UCF reached out to Riley’s representatives last weekend to inquire about his interest in making a move across the country, one source said. Any discussions about adjusting the terms of Riley’s contract would be between him and USC, sources said.
The first source added that UCF has not received any word from Riley’s camp that he is interested in leaving USC, and the school is still looking at multiple candidates to fill its head coaching vacancy.
Firing Riley, whose win total with the Trojans has decreased in each of his three seasons, would cost USC about $90 million, according to one of the sources. If Riley were to leave for another school, he would owe USC nothing. But UCF is not in position to replicate the deal Riley has at USC. Malzahn made $4 million in 2024 at UCF.
Two sources said even if Riley had an interest in making the move, it would require some payout of his current deal with USC to make up for what he would be giving up in the transition — like a professional sports trade where one team pays a chunk of a player’s remaining salary on a large contract and the receiving team picks up the rest.
Riley was hired at USC by former athletic director Mike Bohn, who resigned amid controversy in the spring of 2023. University president Carol Folt oversaw the hire as well and will retire this summer, which means two of the main parties involved in bringing Riley to USC will be gone.
Jen Cohen, the former Washington athletic director, was hired in August 2023 to lead the athletic department. She inherited Riley and his contract.
She’s in the unenviable position of having an underperforming football program but a coach who is too expensive to move on from. In the spring, Cohen navigated a delicate situation with men’s basketball coach Andy Enfield, whose tenure had run its course but his track record was too good to justify a firing. He eventually took the SMU job, and Cohen hired Eric Musselman from Arkansas to replace him.
Even with a suitor for Riley, getting out from under his deal looks more difficult.
Malzahn left UCF after four seasons as head coach to become offensive coordinator at Florida State. The Knights have gone 10-15 overall and 5-13 in league play in their first two seasons in the Big 12 after making the move from the American Athletic Conference. UCF received only a partial share of Big 12 revenue last year, about $18 million, and is scheduled to receive about $19 million for the 2024-25 fiscal year.
The number jumps to a full share in 2025-26, which should be about double those figures.
Riley is 25-14 at USC since being lured to Los Angeles from Oklahoma after the 2021 regular season. It was a seismic move for the Trojans, swiping away a coach who had a 55-10 record in Norman and two Heisman Trophy winners in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.
The Trojans went 11-3 in Riley’s first season with another Heisman winner in Caleb Williams, the star quarterback who followed the coach from Oklahoma to USC. But the results have been trending in the wrong direction since.
USC went 8-5 in 2023, its final season in the Pac-12, and wrapped up its first regular season in the Big Ten with a 6-6 overall record (4-5 in league play).
After the 2023 season, Riley told The Athletic that he “didn’t come here (USC) for some short-term thing and as long as SC continues to give us the support and the things we need to continue to build this, this was not a two-year rebuild.”
Recruiting hasn’t lived up to the high expectations that came with Riley’s hire. USC continues to regress on the field each season, and the program doesn’t appear to have much direction moving forward, making the outlook for Riley look hazy at best.
(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
Culture
The end of Ferrari’s ‘C²’: Leclerc and Sainz’s genuine F1 partnership faces its sunset in Abu Dhabi
Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz sat in the back of a car chatting en route to Bahrain International Circuit.
A buzz was in the air as Formula One prepared for the first race weekend of the 2024 season, fresh off of a long winter, the teams’ season launches and a silly season signing changing the drivers’ market. News broke on Feb. 1 that Lewis Hamilton would leave Mercedes and switch to Ferrari for the 2025 season, costing Sainz his seat. It wasn’t a matter of the Spaniard not performing — how do you say no to a seven-time world champion?
On the way to the Bahrain track, Leclerc stared down the camera with a slight smile. “Tell me, Carlos,” he said to his teammate before a stuffed chili pepper appeared in the frame. A fan had given it to Sainz, a nod towards one of his nicknames. Sainz said, “I want to give this to you, from my fan to me, for you so you remember me for the rest of your life.”
Leclerc pressed the chili against his face, saying, “A chiliiiiii.” Sainz added, “For our post-teammate era.” Leclerc stopped spinning the chili, his smile fading as he looked at his teammate.
“Come on, we’re only starting the season,” he responded with a slight laugh. Sainz said, “Getting emotional already.”
Together, Leclerc and Sainz formed a formidable driver duo that helped Ferrari contend for its first constructors’ championship since 2008, sitting 21 points behind first-place McLaren. The 2024 season has been the strongest of their respective F1 careers, Leclerc securing three wins (including an emotional home win at Monaco and a team home win at the Italian GP) and 12 podium finishes. Sainz brought home two victories (one just 16 days after having surgery) and eight podiums.
Their working relationship is strong, though tensions have flared, like after the Las Vegas Grand Prix. But on the personal side, the two have formed a beloved duo known by fans as C². Ferrari has put them through numerous viral challenges over the years, and the pair have become memes on social media. Their personalities have shone, and while they both will still be in the paddock in 2025 with Sainz at Williams, it’s the end of a special driver pairing.
“I’m sure that even though he won’t be in red next year, we’ll most likely travel together on the races to spend some time together,” Leclerc said in Abu Dhabi, “because our relationship is really good.”
“It’s a mix between a chili… and a carrot” 😅 @Carlossainz55 gifts his chili to @Charles_Leclerc 🙏 pic.twitter.com/4AHU2Xl4h0
— Scuderia Ferrari HP (@ScuderiaFerrari) March 2, 2024
It all began four years ago.
Ferrari announced in May 2020 that Sainz would replace four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel. The news came after Daniel Ricciardo was confirmed as the Spaniard’s replacement at McLaren, Sainz’s home for two years. The Woking-based crew led the midfield battle then, ending 2020 third in the standings (but 117 points off of second-place Red Bull). Sainz’s breakthrough year came with the papaya as he secured his first podium in 2019.
However, one of the lasting memories of Sainz’s McLaren chapter is how he bonded with the team, especially then-teammate Lando Norris. The duo formed what is still known today among fans as ‘Carlando,’ the term even popping up during competitions like the 2023 Singapore Grand Prix.
Recreating that close friendship bond is rare, especially in a ruthless sport where the drivers’ market can be fluid. But Sainz and Leclerc clicked quickly, becoming so close that many fans wondered online whether it was a PR stunt pulled by Ferrari. Those types of comments continued for years, even when on-track frustrations flared.
“I honestly keep seeing sometimes in social media that people believe it’s not true and it’s all PR. And honestly, it disappoints me because people cannot sometimes understand that we have a professional relationship, and in that professional relationship, we go through ups and downs,” Sainz said in Qatar. “As competitive as we are, we’re always going to have some issues on track because, again, if he would be P1 and I would be P8 or vice versa, we would never have issues, but unfortunately, or let’s say fortunately for the team, we’re always in the same point on the track, and we’re having our little issues here and there.
“But then we also have a personal relationship, and as much as the professional one goes through ups and downs, the personal one, I can tell you, it’s always been really, really good.”
Leclerc and Sainz have clashed on track over the seasons but battled within the lines dictated by Ferrari (like at the 2024 United States Grand Prix, where they finished 1-2, the 2023 Italian Grand Prix and this year’s Las Vegas GP).
@f1 the ferraris made sure we were all entertained 🤺🤺 #f1 #formula1 #f1sprint #usgp #ferrari #carlossainz #charlesleclerc
♬ Hahahaha again – Lea👅
They are allowed to fight. And as noted by Sainz, they’re fighting for the same high-scoring positions, which starkly contrasts his stints at McLaren, Renault and Toro Rosso (now RB). He wasn’t fighting for wins when competing for previous teams, and none of those stops came with the same pressure that being a Ferrari driver brings. After all, it is the oldest team on the grid and a prestigious and legendary brand.
Sometimes, friction arises in the professional relationship, like during the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Leclerc gave a fiery radio message, saying, “Yeah, I did my job, but being nice f— me over all the f— time.” He was reluctant to go into details, and team principal Fred Vasseur felt Leclerc’s radio remarks were about the difficult situation, not one specific moment.
Communication, though, appears to be a hallmark of their relationship. They are able to separate the professional from the personal, but they also move on from misunderstandings quickly rather than allowing it to drag on to another race weekend.
Leclerc said in Qatar: “Whatever happened in Vegas, we discussed about it, and we are all good, which is the most important thing. I had no doubts about that because we’ve always had a really good relationship with Carlos and we’ve had races where sometimes things don’t go exactly the way we want, but the most important thing is that we discuss about it and we go forward.”
Leclerc was later asked in the same news conference what was said that made him comfortable putting trust in Ferrari and Sainz. He doubled down on the relationship and communication aspect again. “Sometimes I have overstepped the lines, and sometimes he did,” Leclerc said. “And then it only requires a discussion between us two. And we look ourselves in the eye, and we know each other since a very long time now. We understand each other very, very quickly.”
Come Sunday, once the checkered flag falls, the cameras turn off and the debriefs wrap up, that’ll be it. Sainz is driving in the post-season test with Williams, his new home, and it’ll be the end of an era in red. While the chapter will close on Sainz and Leclerc’s professional relationship, it’s hard to imagine that the dynamic duo of C² will cease to exist. This relationship, like any friendship, is different than ‘Carlando.’
And as Leclerc said, Sainz will only be working “20 meters away in the paddock.” But that doesn’t mean he won’t miss his teammate. His helmet for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix weekend is indicative of it.
Etched on the top of the glittered helmet is “mucha5 gracia5 Carlos” — a nod to Sainz’s car number, 55.
“(Leclerc’s) one of those guys that I know in the future when I’m not in Formula One, I’ll look back and say I’m glad I met him, and I’m glad I raced with him, and I’m glad I can have a lot of good memories with him,” Sainz said in Qatar. “And in these four years in Ferrari, I’ve enjoyed every single moment with him, even the tough ones. As much as they’ve been tough, I’m pretty sure in 20-30 years I’ll laugh about them and look back with being proud of what we’ve achieved together.”
Top photos: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire, Chris Graythen/Getty Images, Clive Mason – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images; Design: Meech Robinson/The Athletic
Culture
NFL Week 14 roundtable: Should Pittsburgh be on upset alert? Time for Michael Penix Jr.?
The Jameis Winston experience reached heights never seen before with the Cleveland Browns’ loss to the Denver Broncos on Monday night. The Browns aren’t your typical 3-9 team, which the Pittsburgh Steelers already know well.
Should the first-place Steelers be on upset alert again in Week 14? Our writers Mike Sando, Zak Keefer and Jeff Howe address the question in The Athletic’s roundtable previewing Week 14’s remaining slate.
Our writers also ponder if it’s too late in the season for a team amid a playoff push to throw a rookie quarterback in the fire. It’s the talk in Atlanta as the Falcons and Kirk Cousins (at Vikings) continue to fall with the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Raiders) rising.
Read more below for what else is on our writers’ minds this week.
As Monday night showed, you never know what you’ll get out of the Jameis Winston experience. Should Pittsburgh be on upset alert vs. the Browns on Sunday?
Keefer: Absolutely. For starters, they lost to this same Browns team in Week 12, and it’s no secret across the league that Cleveland’s offense is much more potent with Winston under center than Deshaun Watson. Maybe Winston’s prayer to rid himself of the pick-sixes will work, because without those killer mistakes, he’s unlocked something in the Browns’ passing game. For starters, look at what Jerry Jeudy’s doing (he’s eighth in the league in EPA per reception). Also, with Winston at QB, the Browns have had their three most productive days on offense this season.
Howe: The Steelers would need to have short-term amnesia if they aren’t on upset alert because the Browns beat them two weeks ago in one of the funnest games of the season. The Browns are playing much better on offense with Winston, similar to the way the move to Joe Flacco sparked the offense in 2023. You can tell the Browns are playing hard for their coach and quarterback, and they’d love nothing more than to sweep their rivals during an otherwise lost season. The Browns may not be able to predict what they’ll get out of Winston each game, but the results were far more predictable and a whole lot less successful earlier this season when they could foresee the results.
Sando: Yes, because it’s a divisional game and Pittsburgh already lost to the Browns recently. The Mike Tomlin-era Steelers are 19-4 against the Browns when Cleveland had a losing record entering the game. The record is 4-2 since 2019 and 0-1 this season.
The Jaguars meet the Titans without Trevor Lawrence, who, while sliding, suffered a concussion on a hit by Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair last week. There has been some debate over whether Lawrence started his slide too late. Is there any merit to that notion? Could you envision the league ever addressing “fake” QB slides in the future?
Keefer: I’m not buying that. Lawrence started to slide when he saw the defender approaching, giving himself up on the play. Al-Shaair leveled the quarterback with a forearm to the upper part of Lawrence’s shoulder pad and his neck. It was late. It was dirty. It was unnecessary. And it’s not the first time this season Shaair’s been criticized for a late hit on a QB. I do think, if quarterbacks start faking slides to keep the play alive, the league will step in. But this was not that.
Howe: Lawrence slid later than critics may have liked in order to maximize his opportunity to get a first down, but that doesn’t come with an open invitation for a defender to launch himself with a leading elbow to the head area. Later slides generally come with some level of contact from the defense, and the officials tend to do a decent job of determining which of those hits are incidental and which others rise to the level of a penalty. If quarterbacks start a tendency of doing the fake slide, a la Kenny Pickett at Pitt, the league should absolutely put an end to it. The closest thing we’ve seen to that, at least in terms of any semblance of regularity, would be the QBs who take advantage of a few extra yards near the boundary, but I’m not sure how that could be objectively enforced.
Sando: The first coach I spoke with regarding the Lawrence hit pointed out right away that he thought Lawrence slid late. There is merit to the notion. Texans GM Nick Caserio speaking out so forcefully in defense of Al-Shaair does raise the possibility some in the NFL could push for clarifications/changes. But because the league would rather have critics complaining about too many protections for quarterbacks than not enough protections for them, I think it’ll take examples more blatant than the one involving Lawrence for the league to address “fake” slides.
The Bears and 49ers meet on Sunday. Who might be the best fit as the next Bears head coach? What should be at the top of the 49ers’ offseason to-do list, should they miss the playoffs?
Keefer: Can they get Ben Johnson? If Kevin Warren is right — and this is the best job of the NFL’s impending hiring cycle — then this franchise needs to do everything it can to lure the Lions’ offensive coordinator down to Chicago. Nothing is more paramount than Caleb Williams’ development, and the rookie’s shown enough promise this season, despite the recent chaos surrounding the organization, that with the right coach he can become a star in this league. The old Chicago regimes would get this wrong. Maybe this year they actually get it right.
As for the 49ers, despite what some pundits are saying, I don’t think a full-on rebuild is necessary. There’s too much talent. Brock Purdy is young. Christian McCaffrey will be back next season. This year was plagued by a ridiculous stream of injuries, and probably the lingering effects of last year’s gutting Super Bowl loss. The roster needs some tweaks, and needs some youth, but there are too many sound building blocks to move on from.
Howe: They should prioritize offensive consistency for Williams, so there should be apprehension over a defensive-minded coach who could lose his offensive coordinator every couple years. Thomas Brown will deserve a serious look if the Bears play better down the stretch, and the Bears should also bring in Ben Johnson, Zac Robinson and Liam Coen for interviews. With the Niners, it’s been a few years running now where rival executives marvel at the top-end talent but remain wary over their depth, which is why they run into these issues when their stars go down. They aren’t giving out bad contracts to their stars, but there’s an injury risk involved that’s been coming to a head. Same with the Trey Lance pick. Sure, they ultimately figured it out at quarterback, but they’d be in a much better spot right now if they hit on the trio of first-round picks that it cost to draft Lance. This would be a logical time to move on from veterans who are on the back nine and reinforce depth through the draft.
GO DEEPER
Thomas Brown’s chances to stay? Trade for a coach? Bears mailbag, plus Week 14 picks
Sando: How fun would it be if the Bears made a run at Deion Sanders? I’m thinking outside the box with an eye toward the other coaches in this division. Dan Campbell is one of a kind, an outsized personality. Kevin O’Connell and Matt LaFleur are more conventional and both are flourishing. Coach Prime would instantly make the Bears relevant. And while most high-profile coaches would want more personnel/organizational control than Chicago appears willing to grant, Sanders might not. He could bring in some veteran NFL coaches and shake up the division. Is anyone with me?
The Bucs (vs. Raiders), Cardinals (vs. Seahawks) and Rams (vs. Bills) are all 6-6 and probably need to win their respective divisions to make the playoffs. Which team should be feeling most confident right now?
Keefer: I like Tampa Bay’s chances in the NFC South simply because the Falcons feel like frauds. Atlanta’s been so wildly inconsistent this season, and Kirk Cousins is amid one of the worst slumps of his career. The Bucs, meanwhile, won’t see a team with a winning record the rest of the regular season.
Howe: If the Bucs take care of business, they should win four of their last five games and take the NFC South. Their defensive inconsistencies are concerning because it’s tough to rip off a winning streak like that, but their schedule is the most accommodating compared to the Seahawks and Cardinals. The NFC West is completely unpredictable and has been pretty much all season. The only thing I feel confident about is the Niners won’t win the division, so you might as well print their championship T-shirts now.
Sando: Tampa Bay is the team for me as well. It’s amazing to me the Bucs lost twice to the Falcons, but they did, and that’s why they’re in this position. The Athletic’s model puts the Bucs’ playoff chances at 54 percent, compared to 35 percent for Arizona and 26 percent for the Rams. That feels about right to me.
The Falcons are on the road vs. the Vikings. Throwing a rookie QB into the fire against a Brian Flores defense seems ill-advised. But should the Falcons consider starting Michael Penix Jr. over Kirk Cousins at some point this season if things get worse?
Keefer: Yes. If Cousins continues to struggle — his third interception Sunday against the Chargers was one of the worst ones I’ve seen a starter throw all year — the Falcons need to consider giving Penix a chance. The division is still within reach, and if you stick with a starter who’s killing drives and costing the team games, you’re doing a disservice to the locker room. Players know. Players pay attention. They simply want the guy who’ll give them the best chance to win on Sundays. Penix played a lot of games in college; it’s entirely possible he could step in and give this offense a spark.
Howe: I’ve been told Penix has been lighting it up in practice, so a switch would be justified if they felt like making the move. Under no circumstances would I start Penix against the Vikings, but the remaining games against the Raiders, Giants, Commanders and Panthers would be appealing. But this decision wouldn’t be made in a vacuum. If the Falcons go with Penix while they’re still in contention and he plays decently enough, I don’t see how they could keep Cousins in 2025. And it’s fair to believe Cousins will be better next season once he’s fully healed from the torn Achilles. But if the Falcons switch to Penix once they’re out of contention and he plays OK, even if it’s only for the regular-season finale, Cousins won’t have any room for error with the fan base in 2025. The safer play is to stick with Cousins. But if the Falcons believe moving to Penix would spark the locker room and accelerate his chances to start in Week 1 next season, such an aggressive move would be the correct play.
Sando: The Falcons should play Penix for the final four games if Cousins plays poorly and/or the team loses at Minnesota. They’ll have an extra day to get Penix ready because they follow their game at Minnesota with a Monday night visit to Las Vegas in Week 15. Atlanta then finishes with the Giants, Commanders and Panthers. Getting some experience for Penix in the absence of great expectations seems like a good idea. Getting Cousins to the offseason without another injury also has value.
(Photo: Brooke Sutton / Getty Images)
Culture
NHL 2024-25 bold predictions: Revisiting our preseason prognostications
Utah will be one of the NHL’s highest-scoring teams? The Stars Stanley Cup winners? Dylan Larkin — and many others — 40-goal scorers?
Heading into the 2024-25 NHL season, The Athletic asked its hockey staff for bold predictions, and two months later, some are holding up well while others look to have been a bit too bold.
Here’s a progress report on each prediction, from the writers ready to take a victory lap to the many who need a mulligan.
Preseason bold prediction: Trevor Zegras will not be traded this season
Outlook: Still in play
It feels like there have been two factions at work here: those who feel like a Zegras trade is inevitable and those (i.e., Zegras/Ducks fans) who are beyond tired of seeing his name in trade-related/hypothesized/predicted stories. Mind you, it’s hard to peg what his value is or could be. He had been healthy until he got injured this week and his return date is uncertain. Those who’ve watched him closely can see he is playing a more responsible 200-foot game under Greg Cronin. But he’s also on a 34-point pace. Zegras might be a distressed asset, but GM Pat Verbeek isn’t going to move a highly skilled 23-year-old forward for another team’s throwaways. — Eric Stephens
Preseason bold prediction: Jeremy Swayman will struggle early
Outlook: Lock it in
This one was easy. It wasn’t just that Swayman missed all of training camp before signing his contract. He had to adjust to the physical and mental strain of being the go-to goalie following the trade of Linus Ullmark. On top of that, most of his teammates struggled out of the gate. It’s no wonder Swayman wasn’t himself. — Fluto Shinzawa
Preseason bold prediction: Owen Power will double his previous high-goal total
Outlook: Still in play
Power is already almost halfway to a career high in points 26 games into the season and has three goals. He needs nine more in the final 66 games to get to my preseason bold prediction. Given that he plays 22 minutes a night and has a role on the power play, 12 goals is still a number that’s in play, but it’s not quite a lock. — Matthew Fairburn
Preseason bold prediction: Jonathan Huberdeau will crack the 80-point plateau
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
While Huberdeau’s goal totals look more promising compared to last year (he had one point in all of December 2023), we kind of figured his assists would be up. However, he isn’t trending toward an 80-point season, per Hockey Reference. But if he goes on some kind of scoring run between now and the end of the season, maybe that changes. — Julian McKenzie
Preseason bold prediction: Seth Jarvis will get a shot at center
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
The Hurricanes still haven’t figured out who will be their second-line center, but so far it hasn’t been Jarvis. Coach Rod Brind’Amour has bounced between using Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Jack Drury in a more featured role, while Jarvis has remained on the wing. Jarvis has also not been used much on faceoffs — a key for any Brind’Amour center — since returning from an upper-body injury. — Cory Lavalette
Preseason bold prediction: The Blackhawks will finish 25 points better than last season
Outlook: It’s a long shot
This season hasn’t gone as expected for the Blackhawks, which was apparent with Luke Richardson’s firing on Thursday. They’re more competitive than a season ago — they’ve led, been tied or within a goal in the third period in 25 of 26 games — but their record is even worse. Does a new coach change that? We’ll see. But they have to win a lot to meet the bold prediction. — Scott Powers
Preseason bold prediction: Cale Makar will have 100 points
Outlook: Still in play
This prediction is looking solid through the first two months of the season. Makar leads all defensemen with 34 points, which ranks 13th amongst all players. He’s on an 82-game pace of 103 points, so he’s right on track. As expected, Makar is getting a lot of his production done on the power play, where he’s tied for fourth in the NHL with 14 points. — Jesse Granger
Preseason bold prediction: Yegor Chinakhov will bloom as a goal scorer
Outlook: Still in play
Chinakhov threatened to make this prediction look like pure genius with three goals and seven points in the Blue Jackets’ first five games. He’s since cooled off and is currently out of the lineup day to day with an upper-body injury. But once he returns, the 23-year-old Russian will get a top-six role on a club that’s been surprisingly productive. He has seven goals in 21 games, meaning our prediction of 25-plus is still in play. Our prediction of increased ice time? He’s gone from 15:10 last season to 17:01 under coach Dean Evason. — Aaron Portzline
Preseason bold prediction: The Stars will win the Stanley Cup
Outlook: Still in play
Top 10 in goals per game, top five in goals-against per game, top five in penalty kill and a top-10 goalie in Jake Oettinger. The Stars are right where we expected them to be, among the league’s best teams, and they’re doing it with an underperforming power play and relatively slow starts from Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, all of which likely will positively regress to the mean. Even with Tyler Seguin’s potential season-ending surgery (something which likely will make the Stars more aggressive in the trade market), Dallas remains a leading contender for the Stanley Cup. — Mark Lazerus
Preseason bold prediction: Dylan Larkin will score 40 goals
Outlook: Still in play
This season hasn’t gone how the Red Wings would have hoped, but Larkin is indeed close to being on pace to threaten 40 goals. There’s a lot of season left, of course, but he’s been a force, particularly on the power play. Detroit could really use some more offense from down the lineup, but their top players (Larkin, Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat) have been scoring to begin the year. — Max Bultman
Preseason bold prediction: Stuart Skinner will finish top five in Vezina voting
Outlook: Not happening
Skinner went from perhaps the presumptive starter for Team Canada at the 4 Nations tourney entering the offseason to not making the team because of his subpar start. Skinner sports an .889 save percentage in 17 appearances. He’s also surrendered 5.26 more goals than expected in all situations, per Natural Stat Trick. His last start before rosters were due was one of his best, but it was too little too late. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman
GO DEEPER
Stuart Skinner’s last audition for a Team Canada job is as good as it gets
Preseason bold prediction: Adam Boqvist will break out
Outlook: It’s a long shot
It’s not that Boqvist has been horrendous — an expected goal rate of around 50 percent for a cheap, third-pair defenseman could be worse — but he hasn’t come close to a breakout, either, and actually played his way out of the lineup for most of November. He’s back, though, and scored in consecutive games through Thursday. More than anything, that prediction was based on Boqvist getting a whole bunch of power-play time, and that’s once again Aaron Ekblad’s job to lose. Probably not happening. — Sean Gentille
Preseason bold prediction: Quinton Byfield will become the Kings’ best player
Outlook: Not happening
Can I say I was kidding? No? Hey, I bought into the idea of Byfield building on his breakout season. Seeing him with just three goals and 11 points nearly a third of the way into the season is a bit baffling. He’s back at his natural position but the transition from playing on wing with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe to centering his own line hasn’t been seamless. It’s not that he’s hurting their lineup but the Kings becoming a real threat in the Western Conference will look more realistic if he starts to look more like a leading player on their roster like Kopitar and Kempe are. — Eric Stephens
Preseason bold prediction: Matt Boldy will score 40 goals and 40 assists
Outlook: Still in play
This felt like a lock in mid-November when he had 10 goals in his first 16 games, but Boldy has gone six games without a goal and has one in his past nine. Still, he was on pace for 36 goals and 43 assists for a 79-point total through Thursday, which would establish career highs. This is a guy who has a tendency to get white hot, especially because he is a high-volume shooter (93 in 25 games this season, 3.7 per game). — Michael Russo
Preseason bold prediction: Juraj Slafkovský will hit 70 points
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
Slafkovský has 14 points in 23 games and has 56 games left to get 56 points. Doesn’t seem ideal. But last season at this point, Slafkovský had 7 points in 25 games and finished with 43 points in his final 57 games. Putting up a point per game from here on out is a high bar, but Slafkovský has not yet reached the level we saw from him last season. There is a lot of room for him to grow. I’m not willing to write off this prediction just yet, though it’s not looking great so far. — Arpon Basu
Preseason bold prediction: Juuse Saros will win the Vezina Trophy
Outlook: Not happening
Saros is the absolute least of the Preds’ concerns. He’s having a fine season — you might even call it an extraordinary season, given the utter lack of help he’s getting. But he isn’t standing on his head enough to deliver wins for the league’s worst offensive team. Or is this just the worst team, period? Team failure to this extent repels individual awards. — Joe Rexrode
Preseason bold prediction: The Devils will finish with the East’s best record
Outlook: Still in play
The Devils’ offseason overhaul has led to a successful start to 2024-25. Their position in the East standings is a bit inflated by games they have in hand, but they were still fourth in points percentage through Thursday. One hot streak and they could be right in the mix with the leaders. — Peter Baugh
Preseason bold prediction: Noah Dobson will score 70 points again — and get a big extension
Outlook: It’s a long shot
The 70-point thing is a pipe dream with Dobson sitting on 12 points through 27 games. And the eight-year $8-million-or-so extension might be a pipe dream too. Dobson is still just 24, but he’s hit a plateau this season for the middling Islanders. Whoops. — Arthur Staple
Preseason bold prediction: Igor Shesterkin will win the Vezina Trophy
Outlook: Still in play
The Rangers are in a bit of a rut, but Shesterkin has had a good year. His 8-9-1 record isn’t overly impressive, but he has taken most of the Rangers games against playoff teams and had a .908 save percentage through Thursday with better underlying numbers. He’s not among the Vezina front-runners at this point, but him winning the award isn’t impossible. He also now doesn’t have any contract talk hanging over him. He agreed to a record-setting eight-year extension Friday. — Peter Baugh
Preseason bold prediction: Travis Green will win the Jack Adams Award
Outlook: It’s a long shot
If the Senators reverse their fortunes after a less-than-ideal start, Green’s case for the Jack Adams could be made. When Ottawa plays at its best, it looks like a playoff team. The issue is consistency. That’s on Green to help instill in his own group. But right now, we don’t think Green will end up on many ballots for coach of the year honors. — Julian McKenzie
GO DEEPER
Who has disappointed the most so far? Senators fan survey results
Preseason bold prediction: The Flyers will have a top-15 power play
Outlook: It’s a long shot
It looked so promising early. The Flyers converted on eight of their first 31 power-play chances through eight games, good for eighth in the NHL. Since then it’s resumed its place at the bottom of the league. Since Oct. 27, only the Bruins have a worse power play than the Flyers’ 10.4 percent success rate. At some point, perhaps soon, the Flyers may be forced to make a decision on assistant coach Rocky Thompson, who just can’t seem to get this part of the Flyers’ game going. — Kevin Kurz
Preseason bold prediction: Marcus Pettersson will become a trade-deadline commodity
Outlook: Lock it in
Pettersson was No. 2 on our big board and would-be UFAs that high on a trade list don’t usually end up staying with their teams. The Penguins won four consecutive games before Friday, their best run of the season. They’re within striking distance of a playoff spot — and it’s possible that means they hold on to Pettersson. But a case can be made for striking while the iron is hot. There are no indications a long-term extension is on the table here in Pittsburgh. The Penguins are in the mushy middle but closer to the bottom than the top. Keeping a player like Pettersson doesn’t make much sense. — Rob Rossi
GO DEEPER
Penguins Today: A Pettersson dilemma and a convergence of Pittsburgh’s Stanley Cup GMs
Preseason bold prediction: William Eklund will lead the team in scoring
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
With his 18 assists and 23 points, Eklund is second in those categories to Mikael Granlund so the possibility does exist of the 22-year-old overtaking the veteran. The chances of that will greatly increase if the Sharks were to move Granlund before the trade deadline. Eklund can build up his goal total as he has only five in 28 games, and he may have to hold off a hard-charging Macklin Celebrini who’s nearly at a point per game since returning from injury. But the left wing in his third full season has become the front-line core player the Sharks imagined when taking him at No. 7 in the 2021 draft. — Eric Stephens
Preseason bold prediction: Matty Beniers will score 30 goals
Outlook: Not happening
I’m ready to capitulate early on this prediction. After what appeared to be a snake bit, sophomore slump campaign for the 2023 Calder winner, the gifted Kraken center has somehow remained in shooing-percentage hell this season. Through 27 games before Friday, Beniers had scored just four times on 51 shots and is carrying a 7.8 percent shooting clip that’s less than half of the conversion rate he managed in his electric rookie season. Beniers would have to score at a 44-goals per 82-game pace over the balance to hit 30, which is a massive stretch for a player that has scored just 19 goals in his most recent 104 games played through Thursday. — Thomas Drance
Preseason bold prediction: Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway’s success will lead to more offer sheets
Outlook: Lock it in
I’m more confident about this now than I was at the start of the season. Broberg missed 12 games with an injury, but when in the lineup, he’s been arguably the Blues’ best defenseman. Likewise, Holloway has perhaps been their most versatile productive forward. There may not be an identical situation where two talented players are available on a team — in this case the Oilers — that can’t afford to match an offer sheet. But with the way Broberg and Holloway are playing, the vultures will be out. — Jeremy Rutherford
GO DEEPER
How this summer’s stunning offer-sheet saga has worked out for Oilers and Blues
Preseason bold prediction: Andrei Vasilevskiy will be a Vezina Trophy finalist
Outlook: It’s a long shot
Vasilevskiy may have more two-way support this season, but he isn’t in the Vezina Trophy race right now. That’s a conversation led by the likes of Connor Hellebuyck, Lukas Dostal and Filip Gustavsson. Vasilevskiy is having a fine season so far — he has saved 3.97 goals above expected through 20 games while earning a .909 save percentage — but those numbers aren’t sparkling like some of the league’s best or even his peak years. The season isn’t over yet and he tends to heat up as the pressure rises, but he has a lot of ground to make up. — Shayna Goldman
Preseason bold prediction: Mitch Marner will score 40 goals
Outlook: Still in play
Marner had one goal in October. Then, a heater shooting the puck in November. He had eight goals in 12 games. Marner is still off the 40-goal pace though. He appears headed more for his third 30-goal season than his first 40-goal campaign. If head coach Craig Berube gets his way though and Marner starts shooting the puck more aggressively, there’s still a chance Marner comes close to or even hits 40 goals. During the back half of the 2021-22 season, Marner shot the puck more aggressively than ever and punched in 29 goals during a 46-game stretch. That’s what he’ll need the rest of the way to hit 40. — Jonas Siegel
Utah Hockey Club
Preseason bold prediction: Utah will finish as one of the NHL’s highest-scoring teams
Outlook: Not happening
Did anyone here whiff as much as this prediction? Other than an early flurry to start the season, Utah has struggled mightily to score this season, sitting 23rd in goals per game and 24th on the power play through Thursday. A lot of the Hockey Clubbers’ young talent has failed to break through, with Logan Cooley on pace for fewer than 20 goals and a lot of their 20-goal producers from last season coming up well short of those projections in the early going. Connor Ingram’s struggles in goal and injuries on defense have hurt their record, but regressing offensively to this extent is the bigger surprise given the cast up front. — James Mirtle
Preseason bold prediction: Elias Pettersson will bounce back and lead the team in scoring
Outlook: Still in play
It certainly hasn’t been an out-of-the-gate, no-doubt-about-it, he’s-back-like-John-Wick level bounce back for Pettersson this season, but the star Canucks center has found his form of late. He’s back to controlling play and still has a chance to lead all Vancouver players in scoring. Through Thursday, he ranked first in points and points per game among Canucks forwards, but what I didn’t expect was Quinn Hughes to hit even another level of preposterous form this season. Through Thursday, Hughes was holding a six-point lead over Pettersson in the point production department this season, so Pettersson still has some catching up to do. — Thomas Drance
Preseason bold prediction: Pavel Dorofeyev will finish second on the team in goals
Outlook: Still in play
The hope with this prediction was that Dorofeyev would take advantage of a bigger opportunity than he’s had to this point in his career, and that’s exactly what has happened through two months. Through Thursday, Dorofeyev was second on the Golden Knights with 12 goals, only one behind team leader Ivan Barbashev. He has contributed both at even strength and on the top power-play unit, and has been an integral part of Vegas’ seventh-ranked offense. — Jesse Granger
Preseason bold prediction: The Pierre-Luc Dubois deal will pay off
Outlook: Still in play
There’s plenty of road left before I can do a victory lap, but I feel good about predicting good things for Dubois. Is he playing to a 70-point pace, as I said he would? Not quite. Has he been a major catalyst for the Caps’ early-season success? Absolutely. He’s crushing most of his minutes as the 2C, which allowed Washington to set up favorable matchups for Alex Ovechkin’s line, and has helped Connor McMichael get off to a scorching start. So far, so good. — Sean Gentille
Preseason bold prediction: Nikolaj Ehlers will play out the season and then walk as a UFA
Outlook: Still in play
Ehlers is a point-per-game player now, mostly because he’s been every bit as good on the top power play as advertised: helpful on entries, good in the high slot, creative with options in the zone. He’s also hurt, nursing a lower-body injury suffered against Vegas on Nov. 29. It’s difficult to say what any of this means for his future, though. I believe the “self-rental” option is still on the table for Winnipeg. If recent call-up Brad Lambert bursts offensively, Ehlers could become a trade chip. (For the right return, it might not take that Lambert burst.) An extension does not appear to be a front-burner, midseason option, but must also be considered a possibility. — Murat Ates
(Top photo of Red Wings center Dylan Larkin celebrating after scoring a goal: Brian Bradshaw Sevald / Imagn Images)
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