Culture
NHL predictions 2.0: New Stanley Cup favorite, surprise Hart Trophy front-runner and more
How much could have changed in a month?
Ask the Edmonton Oilers. When The Athletic polled its NHL staff for 2024-25 predictions in the preseason, Connor McDavid was the prohibitive favorite for the Hart Trophy, and his team was the front-runner to win the Stanley Cup.
Now? Well, the Oilers are the top pick in another category, but it’s not a good one. A new team takes the top spot for who we think will win it all, and another Western Conference superstar — who didn’t get any votes in the preseason — is our Hart Trophy pick.
What else has changed? This week, we polled staffers on the same set of questions we asked in the preseason. Here’s how our expectations for 2024-25 have already evolved, with expert analysis and critique from senior writers James Mirtle and Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.
Who will win the Stanley Cup?
Goldman: The Stars are the quietly effective, balanced team of all of our dreams. It’s no surprise to see them at the top here — especially after the Oilers have gotten off to another iffy start. It’s not as dramatic or dire as last year, but they aren’t inspiring a ton of confidence yet.
Granger: I personally chose the Rangers, but it’s hard to argue with any of the top three picks here. The Stars are as complete of a team as there is in the league right now, and the Rangers and Panthers look like they’re in their own tier in the East, at least early.
Gentille: I rarely bail on my preseason Cup picks period, let alone after a month, but I’m concerned enough with Stuart Skinner to deviate from protocol. Hello, Dallas.
Mirtle: I have company with the ‘Canes now! A 10-2-0 start, offensive explosion (more than four goals per game) and Martin Nečas arriving certainly help embiggen their case.
THIS MAN CAN’T BE STOPPED!!! pic.twitter.com/EZW21YE58t
— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) November 6, 2024
Who will be the runners-up?
Goldman: Apparently it’s win or bust for the Hurricanes and Panthers! I went with the Lightning here, who look a lot stronger than the last couple of seasons. With a pair of seconds and fourths in the 2025 draft, management should be able to address their depth — as long as they don’t spend all their picks on a player like, I don’t know, Tanner Jeannot.
Granger: It’s interesting to see how little the faith in Edmonton has wavered after the 6-7-1 start, both in this poll and in the betting odds. The Oilers are still the favorites to win the Cup at +700 despite currently sitting in fifth place in the Pacific Division standings with the third-fewest goals scored per 60 minutes.
Gentille: Yeah, I’m sticking with the Rangers here. They’ve got an elite goaltender in Igor Shesterkin, a Hart candidate in Artemi Panarin and enough five-on-five substance to keep me on the train.
Mirtle: No one be-Leafs anymore, after a tepid eight wins in 15 games start. (I don’t blame them.) I went with the Jets here, as with Connor Hellebuyck this dialed in, they could have a nice run.
Who will finish in last place?
Goldman: The Sharks, even without Macklin Celebrini, have had some interesting games lately … but we all know where their season is going. The big difference between them and the Ducks? Lukáš Dostál.
Granger: I thought the Sharks would be significantly better this season, and so far that’s proven to be very wrong. They obviously don’t have the talent to compete with the best teams, but they also sit back so passively on defense, letting teams pass the puck around the outside almost as if they’re on a power play for the majority of the game.
Gentille: San Jose needs to call up Yaroslav Askarov (.950 save percentage in his first six AHL games) to make this one interesting.
Mirtle: The Habs might make this one interesting if they keep playing this way defensively. Two wins in their last 11 games doesn’t look like a blip.
Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Must be projected at 100-plus points by Dom Luszczyszyn’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.
Granger: The top three teams are all in this spot thanks to subpar goaltending. The difference between the three is that Alexandar Georgiev and Skinner have long enough track records for me to believe they’ll eventually regress back to being league-average goalies. Meanwhile, it’s looking less likely Thatcher Demko is stepping through that door to save the Canucks, so I’m most worried about Vancouver.
Mirtle: No love for Kevin Lankinen! He’s been excellent, and the Canucks’ underlying numbers are solid. Their backup is hurting them (.797 save percentage for Artūrs Šilovs), but with Demko joining the main group at practice this week, they could be fine?
Granger: You might be right. Maybe I’m not giving Lankinen enough credit. He was excellent against the Kings on Thursday, and his numbers are great. I’m still a bit skeptical that will continue for an entire season, but if Demko returns soon it’ll change my mind in a hurry.
Gentille: Carolina is currently playing at a 137-point pace. Whoops!
Goldman: The Oilers bounced back from worse last year, so maybe that’s why I am not super worried there. Maybe the Maple Leafs should be higher. Or we all expect them to disappoint us, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if it happened.
Who’s your dark horse Cup contender?
Must be projected as a middle-of-the-pack team, between 85 and 100 points by Dom’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.
Goldman: The Wild and Capitals have gotten off to better-than-expected starts, which makes them dark-horse playoff teams. But contenders? I don’t think anyone sees them standing in the final four in the spring. That’s what separates them from the Jets, Devils, Lightning and Golden Knights.
Granger: I’m still alone on the Senators bandwagon, but I’m still comfortable despite the middling start. Ottawa is scoring at a good pace, and the goaltending has been better than the numbers suggest. They’re not as good as Tampa Bay or Vegas, but I find it hard to consider them dark horses.
Gentille: The Lightning are a bit of a riser here, which makes sense. They’re getting secondary production from their forwards, and that was a huge issue for them last season.
Mirtle: Sticking with Vegas. They’re riding a shooting percentage bender, sure, but offense sure doesn’t look like it’ll be the issue some thought it was this season. Pavel Dorofeyev has arrived.
Pav got us going!!! 🚪 pic.twitter.com/G1kdbFZagh
— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) November 3, 2024
Who’s your surprise playoff team?
Must be projected below 85 points by Dom’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.
Granger: The Flames are playing some fun, high-event hockey, and both Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar are off to good starts in net. More than anything, I just think the Pacific Division is the easiest to earn a playoff spot in.
Gentille: Ideally, we could’ve left this one blank, but I can see the Blues making a run once Robert Thomas is back in the lineup.
Mirtle: Yeah, this really feels like none of the above at this point. Good for Columbus, though; finally feels like they’re building something interesting there. They’ve been fun to watch.
Goldman: The door should be open for Detroit here with the Islanders, Penguins and Bruins all going through it, but … nope, the vibes are simply off there as well.
Who will be the first coach fired?
Coach | Preseason | Now |
---|---|---|
21.4% |
35.5% |
|
7.1% |
29.0% |
|
21.4% |
19.4% |
|
0.0% |
9.7% |
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
0.0% |
3.2% |
|
10.7% |
0.0% |
|
7.1% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
Goldman: There is a good case to make for any of the top three names here. Mike Sullivan would be purely for a change of direction. A team with Derek Lalonde at the helm shouldn’t be this bad defensively. But I personally went with Jim Montgomery. The Bruins look lost in the early goings of the season and are seeing their playoff chances trend down by the day at this point.
Gentille: Gotta say, I did not expect to see Montgomery challenging for the crown here. I still think it’s Lalonde, though. If Detroit’s power play goes cold for a protracted amount of time, things are gonna get ugly in a hurry.
Mirtle: I second Montgomery. It’s not so much Boston’s record, which isn’t great. They’ve been as bad defensively as we’ve seen in … 20 years? And even David Pastrňák looks out of sorts now.
East playoff field
We asked each voter to pick the eight East playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team.
(*-playoff team in 2023-24)
Granger: There seems to be a pretty clear cutoff after the top eight teams, both in these poll results and the betting odds. Boston is still a -135 favorite to make the playoffs despite the slow start, while the next-closest team (Ottawa) is a slight +110 underdog to make it.
Gentille: Eight-for-eight thus far. End the season immediately.
Mirtle: One vote for Ottawa for me. They’ve looked really good lately and managed to nab some points when Linus Ullmark was out of the lineup. Maybe ease up on those Travis Hamonic minutes a bit, though, Mendes.
Goldman: The East feels somewhat decided besides that eighth seed. Boring!
West playoff field
We asked each voter to pick the eight West playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team.
(*-playoff team in 2023-24)
Granger: What a fall for Nashville, from 92.9 percent to 32.3 percent in only a month of hockey. The Predators are still favorites to make the playoffs according to the oddsmakers, though.
Gentille: I love what the Kings are doing. They’re a top-10 five-on-five team, and that bodes well for them snagging one of the wild cards, especially given how lost Nashville has looked.
Mirtle: The rise of the Wild could make the West race pretty dull. I have a hard time seeing any of the bottom seven get in at this point. Prove me wrong, Utahns!
Goldman: Time to cancel another trip to Sphere or something to get Nashville back in this race. Utah had a lot of momentum early on and wow, did it fade quickly.
Hart Trophy
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA).
Gentille: It’s worth noting that we voted while Connor McDavid was on the shelf, and he wound up missing a grand total of three games. At 6.5 percent, he came in a little light.
Mirtle: Kirill Kaprizov is a fine choice, but I think we’re chasing the shiny new toy here a bit. Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon have been amazing lately and are going to make this one interesting, I think.
Goldman: No disagreements with Kaprizov and Kucherov leading the way, but goalies (and Shesterkin, specifically) should be in the conversation more often.
Get yourself a glass 🥛 pic.twitter.com/W0QrBuHni4
— Minnesota Wild (@mnwild) November 9, 2024
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the leading goal scorer at the end of the regular season.
Goldman: Who among us expected Kucherov to score this much with a 40-goal scorer like Jake Guentzel on his wing?
Gentille: “Me,” I say very dishonestly. He didn’t get any votes, but I feel it necessary to point out that Tage Thompson leads the league with nine five-on-five goals. If Buffalo’s power play gets it together, he should have a shot.
Mirtle: The Auston Matthews skepticism also comes with him on the shelf for a few games, but the concern is warranted. His shooting percentage is down by half, the Leafs power play had a rough start but is getting better, and it feels a bit like the off-year he had in 2022-23 so far.
Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position. Voted on by the PHWA.
Granger: Cale Makar is scoring at an 82-game pace of 135 points …
Gentille: Makar has been undeniably sick, but I went with Quinn Hughes here if only to make a point. His work in his own end has been both incredible and a step up from last season, when he won Norris No. 1. His campaign for a repeat deserves to start now.
Mirtle: I picked Makar, but glad to see Brock Faber here. If the Wild make the playoffs, he’s going to be getting votes for this, no question.
Goldman: Hughes is having such an excellent start that he probably should be getting more hype. No shade to Makar, who rightfully leads the way here. It just feels like it should be a bit tighter.
GO DEEPER
16 stats: Sabres’ second-line issues, Timothy Liljegren trade, Quinn Hughes’ Norris case
Selke Trophy
Given to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game. Voted on by the PHWA.
Goldman: Aleksander Barkov is the easy answer here and will probably be a perennial finalist for the rest of his career. But Nico Hischier’s scoring could finally push him to the top of the list this year, since there is so much more emphasis on two-way play in today’s game.
Gentille: That was my logic, too. Barkov missed some time and Hischier is scoring enough (10 goals) to bolster his case.
Mirtle: The 12th (Sidney Crosby) and 13th (Anze Kopitar) oldest skaters are getting reputation votes here, but it’s pretty remarkable that both are still putting up better than a point a game at age 37.
Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Voted on by the general managers of all 32 NHL clubs.
Granger: Shesterkin is playing on his own planet — perhaps his own universe — at the moment. The 11.97 goals he’s saved above expected this season (even after a rare bad outing on Thursday) rank second in the league. It’s almost unfair when he’s this locked in.
Gentille: I’m Team Shesterkin, too, but shoutout to Jake Oettinger, who’s having the type of regular season (.922 save percentage, fifth in the NHL in goals saved above expected) that plenty of us expected in 2023-24.
Mirtle: Quite a negotiation strategy from Shesterkin right now …
GO DEEPER
Goalie Tracking: The top storylines in net from the first month of the NHL season
Jack Adams Award
Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association.
Coach | Preseason | Now |
---|---|---|
0.0% |
29.0% |
|
42.9% |
22.6% |
|
0.0% |
12.9% |
|
0.0% |
9.7% |
|
3.6% |
6.5% |
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
0.0% |
3.2% |
|
0.0% |
3.2% |
|
10.7% |
0.0% |
|
7.1% |
0.0% |
|
7.1% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
Goldman: We saw Spencer Carbery do a lot with a little last season. With some roster additions, the Capitals are thriving. He deserves a lot of credit for it. If Washington can stay in the playoff race, he feels like the slam-dunk pick for this award.
Gentille: I’d love to see Carbery stay in the discussion here. Too many Jack Adams candidates are propped up by overachieving goalies, and that hasn’t been the case in D.C. They’re across-the-board good.
Mirtle: Carbery was pegged by a lot of organizations as a rising star after what he did as an assistant in Toronto, and that’s definitely playing out right now. Few saw this kind of a rise from the Capitals, who suddenly look very legit. Great hire by Brian MacLellan.
Granger: The Senators aren’t quite playing well enough for Travis Green to fly up this list, but I like what he’s doing with that young team.
Calder Trophy
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Voted on by the PHWA.
Gentille: As I type this, Matvei Michkov has been healthy-scratched. It was bound to happen at some point, I suppose.
Goldman: The Sharks scored more than expected without Macklin Celebrini, so if they can build on it with him back in the fold (he scored two goals on Thursday), he could emerge as the favorite.
MACKLIN’S GOT ANOTHER ONE ✌️ pic.twitter.com/zX4UW1hZlq
— NHL (@NHL) November 8, 2024
Mirtle: I’m heavily biased here because I’ve watched him with my hometown team for years, but folks are sleeping on Logan Stankoven. His line has been great defensively, and his point-per-game pace isn’t percentage-driven. He’s going to have a great career.
Granger: Stankoven was so good in the playoffs last year and has rolled it right into this season. The guy is everywhere when he’s on the ice, a great forechecker and has plenty of skill with the puck once he gets it.
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: Bruce Kluckhohn, Andre Ringuette / NHLI; Joel Auerbach / Getty Images)
Culture
Can You Place These Children’s Books on the World Map?
A strong sense of place can deeply influence a story, and in some cases, the setting can even feel like a character itself. This week’s literary geography quiz celebrates popular children’s books and stories from cultures around the world. To play, just make your selection in the multiple-choice list and the correct answer will be revealed. Links to the books will be listed at the end of the quiz if you’d like to do further reading.
Culture
Ranking 134 college football teams after Week 11: Will shaky contenders feel an SEC squeeze?
Editor’s note: The Athletic 134 is a weekly ranking of all FBS college football teams.
The ACC and Big 12’s hopes of sending multiple teams to the first 12-team College Football Playoff took a big hit over the weekend.
Miami (Fla.) and Iowa State both lost, greatly damaging their at-large hopes. Meanwhile, Ole Miss’ win at Georgia brought more SEC teams into the Playoff mix rather than knocking one out with a third loss. BYU’s comeback escape at Utah likely didn’t help its at-large case with the committee, either.
At this point, those leagues’ best hope for multiple bids is an upset in their respective conference championship games that doesn’t knock the top team out of the mix either. Those two conferences should also be rooting for Tennessee to beat Georgia next week and hoping Alabama and Ole Miss find a second loss somewhere. The crowd of two-loss SEC teams has the potential to squeeze out not only ACC and Big 12 at-large hopes but a team like Indiana, too, should the Hoosiers lose to Ohio State in overwhelming fashion.
But this isn’t the committee. This is The Athletic 134, and I’m standing by my rankings and not reacting to the initial CFP rankings like poll voters sometimes do.
Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 134.
1-10
Rank | Team | Record | Prev |
---|---|---|---|
1 |
10-0 |
1 |
|
2 |
8-1 |
3 |
|
3 |
8-1 |
5 |
|
4 |
9-0 |
6 |
|
5 |
8-1 |
7 |
|
6 |
8-1 |
8 |
|
7 |
10-0 |
9 |
|
8 |
7-2 |
13 |
|
9 |
8-2 |
16 |
|
10 |
7-2 |
2 |
Is BYU the fourth-best team in the country? I don’t know, but they keep pulling out wins, and they still have two victories over top-20 teams in SMU and Kansas State. That’s a good resume. Should Tennessee be higher than the Cougars with its loss to Arkansas or should Penn State and Indiana be higher without a top-25 win? Right now, I don’t really think so.
Indiana moves up from No. 9 to No. 7 thanks to losses by Georgia and Miami, but the Hoosiers barely held on for a 20-15 win against a Michigan team that pushed them around a bit in the second half. I think Indiana should be safe for a CFP spot as long as it beats Purdue, but a blowout loss to Ohio State could start a conversation. We’ll see what happens in two weeks.
Alabama jumps from No. 13 to No. 8 after whipping LSU on the road, while Ole Miss climbs from No. 16 to No. 9 after handling Georgia. The Bulldogs are suddenly barely hanging on to a spot in the CFP, and they’ve lost to both Alabama and Ole Miss. Alabama stays ahead of Ole Miss here because of their performances against LSU, which beat Ole Miss.
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Indiana up to 92 percent chance to make field
11-25
Notre Dame actually inches out of my CFP field after Alabama and Ole Miss move up. The Irish might be another team hoping the SEC knocks some of its teams out, depending on what the committee shows on Tuesday.
SMU is my new ACC leader at No. 12 and in position for the No. 4 seed. The problem with Miami’s weak resume was that it couldn’t afford a bad loss, and it took one against Georgia Tech, dropping from No. 4 to No. 14. Miami’s best wins include Louisville and … Duke? Its early-season escapes against Cal and Virginia Tech don’t help. SMU also has wins against Louisville and Duke, plus its Pitt win (which doesn’t mean as much this week), and its lone loss is to undefeated BYU.
Colorado is up to No. 17 and controls its path to the Big 12 title game and a CFP spot after Saturday’s win at Texas Tech. Washington State is 8-1 and up to No. 18, but the path to an at-large spot might be just too far away. Still, the Cougars are having a great season and should feel good about it.
South Carolina jumps up to No. 20 after a dominant win against Vanderbilt. Army is also newly into this group at No. 22 after beating North Texas 14-3. The Black Knights went from zero wins against teams with a winning record to two over the weekend, thanks to this game and East Carolina’s win elsewhere. Arizona State grabs the No. 25 spot after beating UCF to move to 7-2.
GO DEEPER
Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Alabama got its act together and looks Playoff bound … again
26-50
Tulane has quietly been rolling and is up to No. 26, very much in the race for the Group of 5’s guaranteed Playoff bid if Boise State stumbles. Iowa State falls to No. 27 after a loss to Kansas, while Pitt drops to No. 28 after losing to Virginia, the second consecutive loss for both teams. 8-1 Louisiana might be too far behind to challenge for the G5 spot in the CFP, especially since its one loss was to Tulane, but the Ragin’ Cajuns look like the best team in the Sun Belt and are having a really good season, now up to No. 31.
Georgia Tech jumps up to No. 32 after beating Miami. Syracuse falls to No. 40 after losing to Boston College, while Iowa drops to No. 41 after a loss at UCLA. West Virginia’s win against Cincinnati sees the Mountaineers climb to No. 46.
GO DEEPER
Week 11 CFP race lessons: Mizzou in the ‘Playoff hunt’? One-bid ACC?
51-75
UCLA has really turned things around, winning three consecutive games and rising to No. 57 after sitting near the bottom of the Power 4 not long ago. NC State slips to No. 64 after losing to Duke. Kansas jumps up from No. 85 to No. 65 thanks to its win against Iowa State. No. 71 UConn is 7-3, its most wins since the Fiesta Bowl season of 2010, after beating UAB.
76-100
San Jose State’s win against Oregon State moves the Spartans up to No. 79 and the Beavers down to No. 80. Jacksonville State, No. 81, scored on a Hail Mary against Louisiana Tech and missed the game-winning extra point but won in overtime anyway to stay tied atop the Conference USA standings.
Oklahoma State’s collapse continued with a 38-13 loss to TCU, making it seven consecutive losses for the Cowboys, who have fallen to No. 85. Texas State beat ULM to move up to No. 84. The MAC pack continues, as Miami (Ohio), Ohio and Bowling Green all won, and Northern Illinois handed Western Michigan its first MAC defeat. Four teams are tied atop the conference standings at 4-1.
Has East Carolina turned things around since firing head coach Mike Houston? The Pirates are 2-0 under interim coach Blake Harrell and have scored a combined 105 points in wins against Temple and FAU, moving up to No. 97.
101-134
I haven’t become numb to seeing Florida State lose every week, now down to No. 103 after a 52-3 loss to Notre Dame. It’s still shocking every time. Mike Norvell got moving early in cleaning house, announcing Sunday that both coordinators had been fired. New Mexico is 4-6 and up to No. 109 after beating San Diego State. Nevada might be the best 3-8 team in the country — the Wolf Pack have now pushed SMU and Boise State to the limit in defeat this season.
Air Force beat Fresno State to move up to No. 126, and in a battle of one-win teams, UTEP beat Kennesaw State in overtime, leading to a coaching change at Kennesaw State. Kent State lost 41-0 to Ohio and remains winless and at the bottom of the rankings.
The Athletic 134 series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo: Justin Ford / Getty Images)
Culture
Klay Thompson’s all-time legend moment, as remembered by the Warriors
SAN FRANCISCO — The pinnacle act that defines Klay Thompson’s Bay Area legend, which will be celebrated Tuesday night at the San Francisco palace his dynasty contributions helped build, came on the final night in Oracle Arena across the water in Oakland.
For three quarters, he was the best player on the floor in Game 6 of the 2019 Finals: 30 points on 12 shots. Four 3s in his typical flame-throwing fashion. Four makes inside the arc because of a blossoming off-the-dribble game. Ten free throws, all makes, because he was attacking the rim with some extra playoff ferocity.
“The peak of his powers,” Steve Kerr said.
Thompson was feeling it enough — 10 points in the first 10 minutes of a frantic third quarter — that he went skying for a rare transition dunk to punctuate a nuclear personal run. That’s when Raptors wing Danny Green met him up top with a physical contest, knocking Thompson off balance and forever altering his career.
“One moment,” Joe Lacob said. “One nanosecond can change everything.”
The aftermath is best remembered for Thompson’s determination to brush the pain aside and continue. Trainers forced him toward the locker room. Kerr sent a messenger down the tunnel to relay word that Thompson must shoot the free throws to remain eligible for a return. He hobbled back to the floor and ignited one of the loudest Oracle eruptions ever in its final night, a tease that maybe he would be fine.
“That roar,” Kerr still remembers.
Thompson made both free throws and tried to shamble back on defense. But that wasn’t the plan. Kerr called for a DeMarcus Cousins take foul, gifting Pascal Siakam two free throws so Thompson could finally go to the back and get his knee checked. As he walked past Kerr, Thompson told him: “Give me two minutes.” He was determined to return for the start of the fourth quarter.
“That’s when they did the ACL test,” Kerr said. “I tore my ACL in college. The trainer can tell right away. They just put it up on a table and twist it a certain way. They know instantly.”
Word filtered back to Kerr early in the fourth that Thompson was done. Thompson exited the arena on crutches and was taken to a nearby hospital for testing before the final buzzer. The Warriors, up 85-80 when he disappeared, lost the lead and the game and the title in the fourth quarter.
“I honestly think if he doesn’t get hurt, we win the series,” Kerr said. “But that’s just what we have to believe. No disrespect to Toronto. They were the better team and earned it. Injuries are a part of it. But I will always believe if Klay had stayed healthy, we would’ve found a way. Because that’s what that team did.”
There are those in the organization who believe had he not torn the ACL during one of the greatest games of his life, triggering a torturous domino effect, Tuesday night’s welcome back ceremony in the NBA Cup opener never would’ve been necessary because he never would’ve worn another jersey. But he returns as a member of the Dallas Mavericks and leftover curiosity remains about how it ever got to this point.
The Warriors won four titles in eight years. That much success isn’t attached to many what-if scenarios. But Thompson’s horrid-luck knee injury generates the most painful, not only for the possible three-peat that never was but, more sympathetically, for the tragic ramifications delivered to Thompson’s career.
He wouldn’t play another NBA game for 941 days, missing his ninth, 10th and more than half of his 11th NBA seasons on the heels of five straight All-Star appearances, returning as a productive but understandably diminished player whose body needed far more routine maintenance.
“How old was he?” Kerr asked. “Twenty-nine?”
Yes. Thompson turned 29 four months before the ACL tear. He was 30 when, at the end of his ACL rehab process, he tore his Achilles, sending him into 14 more months of tedious rehab.
“That’s just so devastating,” Kerr said. “To me, 28, 29, 30, that’s when everything comes together — your mind, your experience, your body, your skill. I didn’t think he ever looked better. So that injury clearly was the pendulum swinging the other way in his career. He was still good. Still really good. Helped us win a championship (in 2022).”
But …
“Those next couple years (after the ACL), I think, would’ve been his absolute prime,” Kerr said. “That would’ve been the very best version of Klay. I think part of the reason he struggled so much with it emotionally is that he knew those years were ripped from him by the injuries. He was really at the apex of his game. That’s why it was so tough to see him suffer. He was so distraught at times, even last year. It was sad. To me, he’s just had a really difficult time reconciling the injuries.”
Thompson signed a five-year max extension a couple weeks after the 2019 ACL tear, an earned commitment to a living legend who had delivered so much production (and financial value) to the organization. He spent a large chunk of that next season mostly away from the Warriors, rehabbing out of Rick Celebrini’s view. Celebrini is the team’s respected lead medical decision-maker.
That was a mistake, Thompson would later admit, telling The Athletic in February 2022 that he was about 10 pounds above his normal playing weight when his Achilles popped during an unsanctioned pickup game in Los Angeles a month before his presumed return in 2020.
“I tried to go off on my own and do my own thing, seek out my own thing,” Thompson told The Athletic in 2023. “That backfired. Very badly. So I came crawling back to Rick. Very apologetic.”
Thompson was more present, more diligent, more patient during the second rehab process. But the agonizing wait wore on him. Cameras caught him in tears on the back of the bench during an April 2021 game. Steph Curry came over to console him. In November 2021, two months prior to his return, he sat on the bench for a half-hour postgame with a towel over his head, overcome with emotion.
It’s now been about 20 minutes since the game ended and Klay Thompson is still on the bench with a towel over his head pic.twitter.com/5bvnXjQgCO
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) November 27, 2021
The work proved worth it. Thompson returned from a pair of catastrophic mid-career leg injuries about as impressively as imaginable. He averaged 36 minutes and 19 points in a 22-game playoff run to the 2022 title. He led the league in 3s the next season. He made the fourth most the season after that.
But Thompson maintained an ambition to regain his All-Star form, to chase down the ghost of his former self, to recapture those prime years lost. It led to a level of shot-hunting that sometimes hijacked the offense and off-court brooding that impacted the mood in the locker room, team sources said throughout the season. He had the “four rings” outburst ejection in Phoenix and several behind-the-scenes conversations with teammates and Kerr about throttling back the shot selection, centering himself and exuding better energy.
“I had a conversation (with Kerr) about just enjoying the last chapter of my career and how lucky I truly am to be playing this game,” Thompson said after a January 2024 game. “Being a better mentor for the young guys. Leading by example and having my energy right every game. He helped me realize I do have negative energy and how that affects the team in a poor manner.”
The contractual context didn’t help. Thompson never liked the narrative that he owed the Warriors something for signing him to a max contract after the ACL tear, considering all he’d done before it. Warriors leadership would privately note that half of that max contract (2.5 years) was spent rehabbing.
Extension talks stalled prior to last season. There are differing stories on the authenticity of the two-year, $48 million reported offer. Thompson never felt a level of genuine desire from the front office or ownership to ensure a franchise legend remained around. When the summer came, they prioritized other pursuits and Thompson decided to depart before giving them a chance to circle back.
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In his final season, bitterness had grown. Kerr began closing without Thompson on the floor on certain nights and replaced him with a rookie, Brandin Podziemski, in the starting lineup in February. These demotions stung and wounds still appear unhealed. When approached in Dallas back in the preseason, he declined to speak about it: “I’m not talking about the past,” Thompson said.
“There’s always stuff as a coach that, you know, you look back and you go, ‘Man, I wish I had done this or said that,’” Kerr said. “But there’s nothing that keeps me up at night. Everybody’s life and career arc is different. I think Klay made the right decision going to Dallas. Just seeing him the last couple of years, I think he needed a fresh start.”
As Kerr and Lacob made clear in separate interviews with The Athletic last week, nothing about the end should taint the greatness of Thompson’s run with the Warriors. He’s a statue player who will be welcomed with a celebration on Tuesday. The franchise is giving out Captain Klay hats to every fan in attendance.
Lacob’s first Thompson memory was in college. He’s a huge Stanford fan. He watched Thompson, a star at Washington State, drop 21 points in a road win in Maples Pavilion.
“My son Kent (currently in the front office) was young at the time,” Lacob said. “I remember him telling me: ‘If we don’t draft Klay Thompson, I’ll never talk to you again.’”
Lacob took control of the franchise in late 2010. Their first draft pick, 11th overall, came in June 2011. They’d just hired Jerry West to join the front office and consult on big personnel decisions. This was a major early moment. Lacob and West, among others, went down to Torrance, Calif., to watch Thompson work out.
“He did like maybe five minutes and Jerry said: ‘That’s the guy!’” Lacob recalled. “And I’m like: ‘You’ve only seen him for a couple minutes.’ Jerry said: ‘That’s the guy. That’s all there is to it.’ Maybe it was his shot. Maybe it was his footwork. It was so Jerry.”
West and Kerr were also among the strong advocates not to trade Thompson when Kevin Love became available in the summer of 2014. That’s considered one of the best non-trade decisions in league history. Thompson soon morphed into one of the best shooting guards in basketball and a perfect fit next to Curry. They won their first title the following June.
“Everyone knows the incredible shooting, kind of the unconscious nature of his play,” Kerr said. “He and Steph both share that. People know Captain Klay, China Klay, you know, the fun-hearted guy. But I don’t know that people understand what a killer competitor Klay is. Ultimately that’s what made him a champion.”
Lacob’s most memorable night is a predictable one. Game 6 in Oklahoma City. The Warriors were down 3-2 in that 2016 series and down eight heading to the fourth quarter. Thompson scored 19 in the fourth, hit 11 3s in the game and rescued the Warriors from elimination with a 41-point performance. As he returned to the locker room, Lacob famously bowed to him in the tunnel, a picture that Lacob sent to Thompson in one of his goodbye text messages after he departed for Dallas.
“The tunnel thing was sort of impromptu,” Lacob said.
Kerr’s favorite Thompson story to retell came during the 2017 Finals. JR Smith crashed into him during the first quarter of Game 1, causing a painful high ankle sprain. Thompson also took a knee directly to the thigh.
“He was wearing a sleeve or something and he takes the sleeve off and it was like black and blue and yellow and like, I mean, it was an injury that would have kept him out for at least two weeks in the regular season,” Kerr said. “And he didn’t miss a minute. To me, Klay’s competitive desire is his most underrated quality. At the peak of his powers, the way he guarded the ball and then moved off the ball year after year. He and Steph were one and two in most mileage per game in the NBA. His conditioning, his size, his ability to switch on to Kevin Love and big guys like that and guard them in the post. I mean you don’t do that unless you’re a great athlete, but also unless you care desperately about results and winning at the highest level.”
The Warriors’ charity foundation throws an annual poker event. At it, they put various items up for auction. In the lead-up to the event early this decade, they had the idea of offering a ride across the bay on Thompson’s famous boat from his house to the practice facility. Lacob called to ask. He was uneasy about the request.
“He was like, instantaneously: ‘Absolutely. I’d love to do that,’” Lacob said. “He actually was so enthusiastic about it. I didn’t know. That’s an invasion of someone’s privacy and personal space and time.”
On the night of the auction, the bidding went wild. Toward the end, two attendees were rocketing the price up, intent on acquiring this boat ride. While the bidding neared its final destination of $250,000 — a record for any item or offer at the event — Lacob approached Thompson.
“Would you be willing to do it … twice?” Lacob asked.
Thompson said yes.
“It was a half-million dollars to the foundation,” Lacob said. “He has a great heart. He’s a really good person. That’s what I’ll always remember about him.”
Thompson and Kerr had breakfast in Manhattan Beach in late June. Kerr made the drive up from San Diego. He wanted to reiterate to Thompson that, while everything was still in flux, he valued him and wanted him back. They talked a little about the contractual situation. Kerr laid out the reality of his future with the Warriors — it’d probably include a fluctuating role, perhaps off the bench.
“At the end of the breakfast, he said, ‘You know, I think it’s time. I think I’m going to go to Dallas,’” Kerr said. “I understood. I completely understood. Sometimes a fresh start can be healthy. I think it was the right decision for him.”
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Many within the Warriors had seen the move coming and had privately been predicting it for months. Lacob has maintained that it hit him as a surprise. The front office had hinted that the plan was to bring a market offer back to him later in free agency.
“To be honest with you, shocked,” Lacob said. “If you would’ve told me a few years ago, if there’s one person that I would have never thought that would ever leave the Warriors and would retire as a Warrior, I would probably (have said) Klay would be the highest likelihood.”
That reality never panned out. He returns to face the Warriors in a Mavericks jersey on Tuesday night.
“It’s weird seeing No. 31 (on it),” Curry said. “I hate that.”
“This will be as emotional as anything we’ve ever experienced, I think, in my time here,” Kerr said. “I think it’ll be even more emotional than his return to play. Obviously now there’s a finality to it and appreciation for everything he did hanging the banners, helping get the arena built, just being so beloved by everybody.”
“Some of the stuff we’re talking about here today is not a secret,” Lacob said. “People kind of understand from both sides some of the issues that, yeah, kind of happened. But I do think everyone still loves the history. You can’t take away what he meant to the franchise. Honestly, to me as an owner — very, very important. He’s the first guy we ever drafted. I’m not just saying this. I really did feel like he was a son … Regardless of anything — how it ended, didn’t end. Whatever. That doesn’t matter. It’s an important moment. An important day.”
What will Klay Thompson’s return on Tuesday be like?
Steph Curry: “I don’t know. We’ve had homecomings before, but nothing like this.” pic.twitter.com/NT34K1kKyg
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) November 11, 2024
Asked Klay Thompson about his return to San Francisco on Tuesday for his first game against the Warriors:
“It’ll be good to see people you grinded with obviously, but to me, it’s just another regular season game in November.” pic.twitter.com/Kf9KkUwfNP
— Mike Curtis (@MikeACurtis2) November 11, 2024
(Photo illustration: Meech Robinson/The Athletic; photos Sam Hodde / Getty Images, Gregory Shamus / Getty Images, Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
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