Culture
NHL predictions 2.0: New Stanley Cup favorite, surprise Hart Trophy front-runner and more
How much could have changed in a month?
Ask the Edmonton Oilers. When The Athletic polled its NHL staff for 2024-25 predictions in the preseason, Connor McDavid was the prohibitive favorite for the Hart Trophy, and his team was the front-runner to win the Stanley Cup.
Now? Well, the Oilers are the top pick in another category, but it’s not a good one. A new team takes the top spot for who we think will win it all, and another Western Conference superstar — who didn’t get any votes in the preseason — is our Hart Trophy pick.
What else has changed? This week, we polled staffers on the same set of questions we asked in the preseason. Here’s how our expectations for 2024-25 have already evolved, with expert analysis and critique from senior writers James Mirtle and Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.
Who will win the Stanley Cup?
Goldman: The Stars are the quietly effective, balanced team of all of our dreams. It’s no surprise to see them at the top here — especially after the Oilers have gotten off to another iffy start. It’s not as dramatic or dire as last year, but they aren’t inspiring a ton of confidence yet.
Granger: I personally chose the Rangers, but it’s hard to argue with any of the top three picks here. The Stars are as complete of a team as there is in the league right now, and the Rangers and Panthers look like they’re in their own tier in the East, at least early.
Gentille: I rarely bail on my preseason Cup picks period, let alone after a month, but I’m concerned enough with Stuart Skinner to deviate from protocol. Hello, Dallas.
Mirtle: I have company with the ‘Canes now! A 10-2-0 start, offensive explosion (more than four goals per game) and Martin Nečas arriving certainly help embiggen their case.
THIS MAN CAN’T BE STOPPED!!! pic.twitter.com/EZW21YE58t
— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) November 6, 2024
Who will be the runners-up?
Goldman: Apparently it’s win or bust for the Hurricanes and Panthers! I went with the Lightning here, who look a lot stronger than the last couple of seasons. With a pair of seconds and fourths in the 2025 draft, management should be able to address their depth — as long as they don’t spend all their picks on a player like, I don’t know, Tanner Jeannot.
Granger: It’s interesting to see how little the faith in Edmonton has wavered after the 6-7-1 start, both in this poll and in the betting odds. The Oilers are still the favorites to win the Cup at +700 despite currently sitting in fifth place in the Pacific Division standings with the third-fewest goals scored per 60 minutes.
Gentille: Yeah, I’m sticking with the Rangers here. They’ve got an elite goaltender in Igor Shesterkin, a Hart candidate in Artemi Panarin and enough five-on-five substance to keep me on the train.
Mirtle: No one be-Leafs anymore, after a tepid eight wins in 15 games start. (I don’t blame them.) I went with the Jets here, as with Connor Hellebuyck this dialed in, they could have a nice run.
Who will finish in last place?
Goldman: The Sharks, even without Macklin Celebrini, have had some interesting games lately … but we all know where their season is going. The big difference between them and the Ducks? Lukáš Dostál.
Granger: I thought the Sharks would be significantly better this season, and so far that’s proven to be very wrong. They obviously don’t have the talent to compete with the best teams, but they also sit back so passively on defense, letting teams pass the puck around the outside almost as if they’re on a power play for the majority of the game.
Gentille: San Jose needs to call up Yaroslav Askarov (.950 save percentage in his first six AHL games) to make this one interesting.
Mirtle: The Habs might make this one interesting if they keep playing this way defensively. Two wins in their last 11 games doesn’t look like a blip.
Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Must be projected at 100-plus points by Dom Luszczyszyn’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.
Granger: The top three teams are all in this spot thanks to subpar goaltending. The difference between the three is that Alexandar Georgiev and Skinner have long enough track records for me to believe they’ll eventually regress back to being league-average goalies. Meanwhile, it’s looking less likely Thatcher Demko is stepping through that door to save the Canucks, so I’m most worried about Vancouver.
Mirtle: No love for Kevin Lankinen! He’s been excellent, and the Canucks’ underlying numbers are solid. Their backup is hurting them (.797 save percentage for Artūrs Šilovs), but with Demko joining the main group at practice this week, they could be fine?
Granger: You might be right. Maybe I’m not giving Lankinen enough credit. He was excellent against the Kings on Thursday, and his numbers are great. I’m still a bit skeptical that will continue for an entire season, but if Demko returns soon it’ll change my mind in a hurry.
Gentille: Carolina is currently playing at a 137-point pace. Whoops!
Goldman: The Oilers bounced back from worse last year, so maybe that’s why I am not super worried there. Maybe the Maple Leafs should be higher. Or we all expect them to disappoint us, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if it happened.
Who’s your dark horse Cup contender?
Must be projected as a middle-of-the-pack team, between 85 and 100 points by Dom’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.
Goldman: The Wild and Capitals have gotten off to better-than-expected starts, which makes them dark-horse playoff teams. But contenders? I don’t think anyone sees them standing in the final four in the spring. That’s what separates them from the Jets, Devils, Lightning and Golden Knights.
Granger: I’m still alone on the Senators bandwagon, but I’m still comfortable despite the middling start. Ottawa is scoring at a good pace, and the goaltending has been better than the numbers suggest. They’re not as good as Tampa Bay or Vegas, but I find it hard to consider them dark horses.
Gentille: The Lightning are a bit of a riser here, which makes sense. They’re getting secondary production from their forwards, and that was a huge issue for them last season.
Mirtle: Sticking with Vegas. They’re riding a shooting percentage bender, sure, but offense sure doesn’t look like it’ll be the issue some thought it was this season. Pavel Dorofeyev has arrived.
Pav got us going!!! 🚪 pic.twitter.com/G1kdbFZagh
— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) November 3, 2024
Who’s your surprise playoff team?
Must be projected below 85 points by Dom’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.
Granger: The Flames are playing some fun, high-event hockey, and both Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar are off to good starts in net. More than anything, I just think the Pacific Division is the easiest to earn a playoff spot in.
Gentille: Ideally, we could’ve left this one blank, but I can see the Blues making a run once Robert Thomas is back in the lineup.
Mirtle: Yeah, this really feels like none of the above at this point. Good for Columbus, though; finally feels like they’re building something interesting there. They’ve been fun to watch.
Goldman: The door should be open for Detroit here with the Islanders, Penguins and Bruins all going through it, but … nope, the vibes are simply off there as well.
Who will be the first coach fired?
Coach | Preseason | Now |
---|---|---|
21.4% |
35.5% |
|
7.1% |
29.0% |
|
21.4% |
19.4% |
|
0.0% |
9.7% |
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
0.0% |
3.2% |
|
10.7% |
0.0% |
|
7.1% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
Goldman: There is a good case to make for any of the top three names here. Mike Sullivan would be purely for a change of direction. A team with Derek Lalonde at the helm shouldn’t be this bad defensively. But I personally went with Jim Montgomery. The Bruins look lost in the early goings of the season and are seeing their playoff chances trend down by the day at this point.
Gentille: Gotta say, I did not expect to see Montgomery challenging for the crown here. I still think it’s Lalonde, though. If Detroit’s power play goes cold for a protracted amount of time, things are gonna get ugly in a hurry.
Mirtle: I second Montgomery. It’s not so much Boston’s record, which isn’t great. They’ve been as bad defensively as we’ve seen in … 20 years? And even David Pastrňák looks out of sorts now.
East playoff field
We asked each voter to pick the eight East playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team.
(*-playoff team in 2023-24)
Granger: There seems to be a pretty clear cutoff after the top eight teams, both in these poll results and the betting odds. Boston is still a -135 favorite to make the playoffs despite the slow start, while the next-closest team (Ottawa) is a slight +110 underdog to make it.
Gentille: Eight-for-eight thus far. End the season immediately.
Mirtle: One vote for Ottawa for me. They’ve looked really good lately and managed to nab some points when Linus Ullmark was out of the lineup. Maybe ease up on those Travis Hamonic minutes a bit, though, Mendes.
Goldman: The East feels somewhat decided besides that eighth seed. Boring!
West playoff field
We asked each voter to pick the eight West playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team.
(*-playoff team in 2023-24)
Granger: What a fall for Nashville, from 92.9 percent to 32.3 percent in only a month of hockey. The Predators are still favorites to make the playoffs according to the oddsmakers, though.
Gentille: I love what the Kings are doing. They’re a top-10 five-on-five team, and that bodes well for them snagging one of the wild cards, especially given how lost Nashville has looked.
Mirtle: The rise of the Wild could make the West race pretty dull. I have a hard time seeing any of the bottom seven get in at this point. Prove me wrong, Utahns!
Goldman: Time to cancel another trip to Sphere or something to get Nashville back in this race. Utah had a lot of momentum early on and wow, did it fade quickly.
Hart Trophy
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA).
Gentille: It’s worth noting that we voted while Connor McDavid was on the shelf, and he wound up missing a grand total of three games. At 6.5 percent, he came in a little light.
Mirtle: Kirill Kaprizov is a fine choice, but I think we’re chasing the shiny new toy here a bit. Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon have been amazing lately and are going to make this one interesting, I think.
Goldman: No disagreements with Kaprizov and Kucherov leading the way, but goalies (and Shesterkin, specifically) should be in the conversation more often.
Get yourself a glass 🥛 pic.twitter.com/W0QrBuHni4
— Minnesota Wild (@mnwild) November 9, 2024
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the leading goal scorer at the end of the regular season.
Goldman: Who among us expected Kucherov to score this much with a 40-goal scorer like Jake Guentzel on his wing?
Gentille: “Me,” I say very dishonestly. He didn’t get any votes, but I feel it necessary to point out that Tage Thompson leads the league with nine five-on-five goals. If Buffalo’s power play gets it together, he should have a shot.
Mirtle: The Auston Matthews skepticism also comes with him on the shelf for a few games, but the concern is warranted. His shooting percentage is down by half, the Leafs power play had a rough start but is getting better, and it feels a bit like the off-year he had in 2022-23 so far.
Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position. Voted on by the PHWA.
Granger: Cale Makar is scoring at an 82-game pace of 135 points …
Gentille: Makar has been undeniably sick, but I went with Quinn Hughes here if only to make a point. His work in his own end has been both incredible and a step up from last season, when he won Norris No. 1. His campaign for a repeat deserves to start now.
Mirtle: I picked Makar, but glad to see Brock Faber here. If the Wild make the playoffs, he’s going to be getting votes for this, no question.
Goldman: Hughes is having such an excellent start that he probably should be getting more hype. No shade to Makar, who rightfully leads the way here. It just feels like it should be a bit tighter.
GO DEEPER
16 stats: Sabres’ second-line issues, Timothy Liljegren trade, Quinn Hughes’ Norris case
Selke Trophy
Given to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game. Voted on by the PHWA.
Goldman: Aleksander Barkov is the easy answer here and will probably be a perennial finalist for the rest of his career. But Nico Hischier’s scoring could finally push him to the top of the list this year, since there is so much more emphasis on two-way play in today’s game.
Gentille: That was my logic, too. Barkov missed some time and Hischier is scoring enough (10 goals) to bolster his case.
Mirtle: The 12th (Sidney Crosby) and 13th (Anze Kopitar) oldest skaters are getting reputation votes here, but it’s pretty remarkable that both are still putting up better than a point a game at age 37.
Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Voted on by the general managers of all 32 NHL clubs.
Granger: Shesterkin is playing on his own planet — perhaps his own universe — at the moment. The 11.97 goals he’s saved above expected this season (even after a rare bad outing on Thursday) rank second in the league. It’s almost unfair when he’s this locked in.
Gentille: I’m Team Shesterkin, too, but shoutout to Jake Oettinger, who’s having the type of regular season (.922 save percentage, fifth in the NHL in goals saved above expected) that plenty of us expected in 2023-24.
Mirtle: Quite a negotiation strategy from Shesterkin right now …
GO DEEPER
Goalie Tracking: The top storylines in net from the first month of the NHL season
Jack Adams Award
Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association.
Coach | Preseason | Now |
---|---|---|
0.0% |
29.0% |
|
42.9% |
22.6% |
|
0.0% |
12.9% |
|
0.0% |
9.7% |
|
3.6% |
6.5% |
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
0.0% |
3.2% |
|
0.0% |
3.2% |
|
10.7% |
0.0% |
|
7.1% |
0.0% |
|
7.1% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
Goldman: We saw Spencer Carbery do a lot with a little last season. With some roster additions, the Capitals are thriving. He deserves a lot of credit for it. If Washington can stay in the playoff race, he feels like the slam-dunk pick for this award.
Gentille: I’d love to see Carbery stay in the discussion here. Too many Jack Adams candidates are propped up by overachieving goalies, and that hasn’t been the case in D.C. They’re across-the-board good.
Mirtle: Carbery was pegged by a lot of organizations as a rising star after what he did as an assistant in Toronto, and that’s definitely playing out right now. Few saw this kind of a rise from the Capitals, who suddenly look very legit. Great hire by Brian MacLellan.
Granger: The Senators aren’t quite playing well enough for Travis Green to fly up this list, but I like what he’s doing with that young team.
Calder Trophy
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Voted on by the PHWA.
Gentille: As I type this, Matvei Michkov has been healthy-scratched. It was bound to happen at some point, I suppose.
Goldman: The Sharks scored more than expected without Macklin Celebrini, so if they can build on it with him back in the fold (he scored two goals on Thursday), he could emerge as the favorite.
MACKLIN’S GOT ANOTHER ONE ✌️ pic.twitter.com/zX4UW1hZlq
— NHL (@NHL) November 8, 2024
Mirtle: I’m heavily biased here because I’ve watched him with my hometown team for years, but folks are sleeping on Logan Stankoven. His line has been great defensively, and his point-per-game pace isn’t percentage-driven. He’s going to have a great career.
Granger: Stankoven was so good in the playoffs last year and has rolled it right into this season. The guy is everywhere when he’s on the ice, a great forechecker and has plenty of skill with the puck once he gets it.
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: Bruce Kluckhohn, Andre Ringuette / NHLI; Joel Auerbach / Getty Images)
Culture
Each NBA team’s biggest concern a month into the 2024-25 regular season
We’re about a month into the NBA season, and while the injury bug has bitten nearly every team in one way or another, there are other worries that are worth … well, worrying about.
The Athletic asked its NBA staff for each team’s biggest concern at this point. The responses covered the full spectrum, from free-throw shooting and poor depth to well-known names not yet producing at the levels we’ve come to expect in recent years. (Stats and records are through Wednesday’s games.)
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics
Rim protection: This is a fresh concern. It might be a short-term one since the Celtics ranked near the league leaders in rim protection last season and should soon welcome back 7-foot-2 shot blocker Kristaps Porziņģis. But Boston has been gashed for layups and dunks recently, especially in a loss to the Atlanta Hawks and an all-too-close win against the Toronto Raptors. Joe Mazzulla said his team needs to improve its individual defense and rebounding. The Celtics might just be suffering symptoms of a mild championship hangover. — Jay King
Brooklyn Nets
Nic Claxton’s back issue: The Nets got off to a surprisingly solid start, even as Claxton slowly worked his way into the rotation after a preseason hamstring injury. But now he is out again with a lingering back strain. The team wants to build an identity while the front office ideally wants to get the top pick in the draft. They’re achieving both at the moment, and there is a lot to be excited about if Cam Thomas is making a leap. But Claxton is one of the Nets’ cornerstones, and they need him to stay healthy and keep improving if this rebuild is going anywhere down the road. — Jared Weiss
New York Knicks
Lack of free throws: I could go with the defense here, but I think that’ll improve with more time and the eventual return of Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks rank 29th in the NBA in free-throw attempts per game (19.1). For a team that shoots a lot of 2-pointers — efficiently, I should add — and has a head coach who emphasizes shooting 3s, getting to the rim and free-throw attempts, it’s a bit concerning New York doesn’t visit the charity stripe more. Mikal Bridges has only taken 11 free throws this season, despite the majority of his shot attempts coming from inside the arc. — James L. Edwards III
Philadelphia 76ers
Can they get healthy and on the same page?: The Sixers are stuck in a spiral that seems inescapable at the moment. Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey shared the floor together for the first time Wednesday, a game that George left early because of an injury to the same knee he hurt in the preseason. Their only two wins came in overtime, so they are a few bounces away from being completely winless. They’re already at the team meeting stage of the season. The supporting cast has struggled to shoot and rebound. There simply has not been the spark to overcome adversity that defines a season. — Jared Weiss
GO DEEPER
‘Feels like negativity keeps following me’: Joel Embiid on Sixers’ team meeting, criticisms
Toronto Raptors
No chance to build chemistry: RJ Barrett had an AC joint injury. Pelvic and elbow injuries have kept Immanuel Quickley to two and a half games. Scottie Barnes suffered an orbital bone fracture early in the second week of the season. The Raptors schedule was always going to be tough to start the year. However, the presumptive starting lineup, which also features Jakob Poeltl and emerging sophomore Gradey Dick, has played zero minutes. Even if you are rebuilding, you want your core pieces to get big minutes against good teams. The Raptors are missing out on that opportunity. — Eric Koreen
Central Division
Chicago Bulls
Team defense: After trading Alex Caruso this offseason, the Bulls knew their defense would suffer, but Chicago is on the cusp of ranking among the bottom-three teams in defense. Without a single elite defender, and absent appropriate size, Chicago knows its fortunes will be difficult to change. The Bulls are attempting to overcome their defensive limitations by playing faster and launching more 3-pointers. But they’ve compounded their issues with turnovers and cold shooting nights. — Darnell Mayberry
Cleveland Cavaliers
How about … none?: Seriously, they deserve this moment. Only a few teams have done what the Cavs did — win their first 15 games — and historically speaking, those teams wound up in the NBA Finals. It’s OK to say this team has no glaring concerns. Take a bow. If you insist, there are some issues to keep an eye on, like wing depth (the Cavs have a bunch of them, but will they hold up in the playoffs?), defensive rebounding and serviceable bigs off the bench. We just can’t, with a straight face, call any of these items concerns right now. — Joe Vardon
Detroit Pistons
Turnovers: The Pistons entered Thursday tied with the Bulls for 20th in the NBA in turnovers per game. Cade Cunningham is Detroit’s primary ballhandler and fourth in the league in assists per game, but he leads the NBA in total turnovers. Turnovers are to be expected with a team this young, but Cunningham is the head of the snake. Once he and the Pistons value the basketball on each possession, there should be fewer close games that keep Detroit fans on the edge of their seats. — Hunter Patterson
Indiana Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton: My guy can’t shoot right now. Haliburton is making just 37.5 percent of his shots overall and is chucking it at an abysmal 28.4 percent from 3-point range. These are both, easily, career lows, and for what it’s worth, his 82 percent shooting at the foul line also is a career worst. The Pacers have better players and more depth, and Haliburton’s ability to push the pace and find the open man are still paramount (his assists are down too). But for the Pacers to be good, he has to play at his usual All-Star level. — Joe Vardon
Milwaukee Bucks
Khris Middleton’s health: During training camp, Middleton told The Athletic that he needed to play in at least 70 games to consider this a successful season for himself. The Bucks are 15 games through their schedule and he has still not felt confident enough to get on the floor for five-on-five activities. The Bucks have rebounded well from their 2-8 start by winning four of their past five games, but it will be difficult to compete for a championship without a healthy Middleton. — Eric Nehm
Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks
Trae Young: You can nitpick about Atlanta’s defense or the shooting on the wings or the backup point guard situation, but none of that matters if Young isn’t playing at an All-Star level. And while he’s leading the league in assists, he’s also struggled mightily to score, shooting just 38 percent on the season and failing to get off a shot in two last-shot situations that both ended in Hawks losses. While Young historically has been a slow starter, his Achilles tendinitis to begin the season adds to the concern level this time around. — John Hollinger
Charlotte Hornets
When will Mark Williams play again?: The Hornets are reaching an anniversary they don’t want: Dec. 8 will mark a year since Williams last played in a game. The 15th pick in the 2022 draft has played in just 62 games in his career. He missed most of last season with a back injury. This year, it’s been a left foot issue. Williams has been productive when he has played and could be a key piece for Charlotte in its rebuild, but the Hornets need to see him back on the floor to know that. — Mike Vorkunov
Miami Heat
Terry Rozier’s start: After their failed pursuit of Damian Lillard in the summer of 2023, Miami’s big move to bolster its backcourt was trading Kyle Lowry and a lottery-protected 2027 first-round pick to Charlotte for Terry Rozier. The 30-year-old got off to a decent start after his arrival in South Beach, but he missed the 2024 playoffs due to a neck injury, and he’s off to a rough start this season as the Heat have stumbled to a 6-7 mark. Rozier’s averaging 12.9 points and 3.7 assists on 38 percent shooting. Miami needs to be more explosive on offense to compete with teams such as Boston and Cleveland at the top of the Eastern Conference. Rozier has to play a key role in the offense taking another step. — Will Guillory
Orlando Magic
3-point shooting: Orlando has done an admirable job overcoming the absence of injured star Paolo Banchero. But the team still struggles to score in the half court and struggles to hit long-range shots. The Magic rank last in 3-point shooting percentage, making only 30.5 percent of their attempts. They remain competitive because of their outstanding defense, coaching, cohesiveness and home-court advantage. They have a lot of positives going for them. But as their shooting woes in last year’s playoffs demonstrated, their inability to convert from beyond the arc is an Achilles heel. — Josh Robbins
Washington Wizards
Can they keep players engaged?: Still early in their rebuild, the Wizards need to finish at or near the bottom of the NBA standings to enhance their 2025 draft lottery chances. It sounds ghoulish to say, but they’re on the right track with a 2-11 record. That said, for any team, losing a lot of games (and by wide margins too) can cause collateral damage, especially to veteran players who grow impatient with losing and potentially with young players who could fall into bad habits. Can coach Brian Keefe and the team leaders keep Washington’s older players positive and the young players on the right developmental track? — Josh Robbins
Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets
Same song: The Nuggets are going to win 50 games and be relevant come playoff time. But can they get over the hump this season? Do they have the quality depth to survive when all-everything Nikola Jokić is not on the floor? That’s what terminated their playoff run last season. Can it be different this time around? — Tony Jones
GO DEEPER
Without Nikola Jokić, the Nuggets have looked alarmingly helpless
Minnesota Timberwolves
Defense: The Timberwolves had the best defense in the NBA by a country mile last season, riding it all the way to the Western Conference finals. Rudy Gobert was Defensive Player of the Year and flanked by a trio of the best perimeter defenders in the league in Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Anthony Edwards. Of those four players, only Alexander-Walker has resembled what he was last season. Gobert has said he isn’t playing up to his standards at the rim, McDaniels hasn’t been anywhere close to the disrupter on the perimeter and Edwards has often looked inattentive and unfocused on that end. If the Wolves are going to overcome a sluggish start, those three guys have to get their defensive teeth back. — Jon Krawczynski
Oklahoma City Thunder
Alex Caruso’s shooting: Caruso scored a season-high 17 points during the recent win over the Trail Blazers. The Thunder are hoping that trend continues. For all the talk of the Caruso-for-Josh Giddey swap in Oklahoma City, neither side is seeing dividends yet. Giddey has struggled leading the Bulls offense and Caruso can’t find the net from beyond the 3-point arc, shooting just 21 percent from deep. And worse, defenders are straying all the way off him when he lines the perimeter. Caruso made more than 40 percent of his 3s in Chicago a season ago. If he continues to miss at this rate, he could become ill-fitting on a roster with shooting everywhere. But if he begins to look like himself again, at a bare minimum hitting open jumpers, the Thunder are in a better place. — Fred Katz
Portland Trail Blazers
Deni Avdija’s shot: The Blazers big offseason acquisition is off to a flat shooting start, which played a part in him losing his starting job 10 games into the season. After making a career-best 37.4 percent of his 3-pointers last season in Washington, Avdija has made only 13 of 50 in Portland (26 percent). With Shaedon Sharpe flourishing now that he is back from injury, Avdija’s minutes also have dipped slightly. He has provided value with his smarts, defense and passing, but when the Blazers gave up two first-round picks, two second-round picks and Malcolm Brogdon, they thought they were also getting a shooter on the rise. And maybe that is coming: Avdija in the last four games has made nearly half (7 of 15) of his 3-pointers. — Jason Quick
Utah Jazz
Will Hardy: The Jazz coach is so good at his job that, somehow, he still has a zombie roster competitive enough to only have the fourth-worst record in the league. It bodes well for when the Jazz have enough talent to win that Hardy will maximize that talent. He’s a phenomenal coach. But right now, the Utah front office needs about three more losses than the Jazz currently have. — Tony Jones
Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks
Crunchtime conundrum: Who knew having too many closers could be this clunky? While the Luka Dončić-Kyrie Irving-Klay Thompson trio has mostly worked well, it’s still quite surprising to see these Mavs drop so many close games with all these elite shot-makers on the payroll. Six of their seven losses have been by seven points or fewer, including a stretch of four in a row (against Phoenix, Denver, Golden State and Utah) in which they lost by a combined eight points. While that’s counterintuitive, to be sure, it’s also a reminder there’s only one ball and their late-game chemistry will have to come over time. That process will be slowed a bit with Dončić sidelined for at least a week due to a wrist injury. The numbers, however, indicate Dallas has been better than its record. — Sam Amick
Houston Rockets
Murky offensive identity: There aren’t many concerns with an 11-5 Rockets team within striking distance of first place in the West, but Houston’s lack of an offensive hierarchy is puzzling. The Rockets want to control the glass, run the floor in transition and defend aggressively without fouling, but the absence of a true pecking order rears its head at the wrong times, especially in crunchtime. Four of their five losses have come in the clutch when their pace and ball movement grinds to a halt. It’s hard to be a pace-and-space unit when you’re 15th in pace and 27th in 3s made per game, and those issues could be fixed with an outlined structure. — Kelly Iko
Memphis Grizzlies
Health: The Grizzlies’ depth has vastly improved from a year ago, enabling Memphis to survive — and even thrive at times — without a full complement of players. That said, the core trio of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. has played exactly one game together, with Morant’s most recent hip injury again raising the question of just how often the Grizzlies can unite their three stars. Morant only played nine games a year ago and just eight so far this year, while Bane has played 58 and 42 the past two campaigns and only seven so far this season. — John Hollinger
New Orleans Pelicans
Is it too late to make noise?: The Pelicans are going through an unprecedented stretch of bad injury luck that’s left the roster decimated the past few weeks. After starting the season 2-0, New Orleans only has two wins in its last 14 games. There will be a few key pieces getting back on the court in the next two weeks. There’s a good chance CJ McCollum, Jordan Hawkins and Herb Jones will all be back in the lineup before the end of November. The Pelicans may start turning things around very soon. But the West is so incredibly deep that it might not matter. This is the wrong season to be playing catch-up. — Will Guillory
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San Antonio Spurs
Lack of ball penetration: Nearly half of Victor Wembanyama’s shots are coming from the perimeter, up from just 30 percent as a rookie. The Spurs hoist the ninth-most 3s in the league, but to improve on their 20th-ranked offense, they’ll need to diversify their approach. Some of it is circumstantial: Rookie Stephon Castle, a physical downhill threat, is still learning; Tre Jones and Devin Vassell, San Antonio’s most frequent drivers last season, have only recently returned from injury; and Jeremy Sochan, who was fourth, has been sidelined since early November. Maybe reserve Keldon Johnson, who leads the way with 6.6 drives per game, gets more minutes, but it starts and ends with Wembanyama. The Frenchman needs to set the tone. — Kelly Iko
Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors
Free-throw shooting: The last time an NBA team shot below 70 percent from the line for a season was five seasons ago when the Knicks did it. The last time a team with a winning record did it was nine seasons ago, when the Pistons did it. The 11-3 Warriors have made only 69.5 percent of their free throws. Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Draymond Green, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Brandin Podziemski and Kevon Looney are all struggling from the line to varying degrees. They went 9 of 19 collectively in a three-point loss to the Clippers recently. In a conference where the standings margins are expected to be slim, a few free-throw-related losses in the middle months could be the difference between several seeding slots — the third to the seventh, for example — come April. — Anthony Slater
LA Clippers
Turnovers: One of the reasons the Clippers are hovering around .500 is because they donate possessions like a red kettle is on the floor. Only the Trail Blazers and Jazz average more turnovers per game. And it’s the wrong kind of turnovers, as opponents steal the ball from the Clippers more than any other team. The Clippers can be better than league average on offense if they take better care of the ball, especially in fourth quarters. — Law Murray
Los Angeles Lakers
Depth: The Lakers’ depth was a concern entering the season, and it has grown more problematic since training camp. Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood have yet to return from offseason surgeries. Jaxson Hayes is out with an ankle injury. Anthony Davis is battling plantar fasciitis, an injury that has bothered him since last season. Gabe Vincent and Max Christie have underperformed preseason expectations. Los Angeles is winning enough to stay competitive in the West, but it’s largely been because of production from the starters and D’Angelo Russell. Longer term, the Lakers need to get healthy and/or improve their roster via trade(s). — Jovan Buha
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Phoenix Suns
Staying healthy: Through nine games, Phoenix looked great. Then misfortune hit. Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal suffered calf strains, and a team that opened 8-1 dropped six of seven. Completely healthy, this team looked like a title contender. Durant played like an MVP candidate. Beal excelled in his role. A rebuilt bench contributed. But it’s not even Thanksgiving, and the Phoenix injury report has become a main storyline. The good news: The Suns showed what was possible. They weren’t perfect, but they had something solid from which to build. The bad: As the league’s second-oldest team at 28.26 years, per NBA.com, the health factor may not go away. — Doug Haller
Sacramento Kings
Star workload: De’Aaron Fox is averaging 37.4 minutes per game. Keegan Murray is at 36.7. Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan are both at 36.5. That gives the Kings’ four out of the NBA’s top 14 players in minutes per game. That’s a ton to ask over the course of an 82-game marathon, especially with Sabonis (in his ninth season) and DeRozan (in his 17th season) already missing time due to back injuries. But that’s the trouble for the Kings, who have injured bench players (Malik Monk, rookie Devin Carter), questionable depth and a voracious hunger from Mike Brown and the organization to wrestle away every possible regular-season win to avoid the Play-In Tournament. Fox, Murray, Sabonis and DeRozan have been very durable players historically. That will be tested. — Anthony Slater
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(Top photo of Paul George and Joel Embiid: Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)
Culture
VersaClimbers, Tiger Woods and Houston’s plan to get Kelvin Sampson a championship
HOUSTON — Jamal Shead sat in his locker stall after Houston’s Sweet 16 loss to Duke with a towel draped over his head, trying to answer questions. The locker room felt like a wake: players talking in hushed tones, shocked their run had ended with their indestructible leader sidelined by a sprained ankle. Eventually, Shead couldn’t take it anymore and escaped to the coaches’ locker room.
Shead had grown up in this program, from an unplayable freshman to an All-American and Big 12 Player of the Year as a senior, and the injury forced him to watch the final 26 minutes of his college career from the sidelines as the Blue Devils ground out a 54-51 win.
“I always think about the investment those kids made and how hard I was on them and how hard I pushed them,” Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson said months later. “That was Jamal’s last time. I had him for four years, and maybe I’ll have another one, maybe I won’t, but he won’t have another one.”
That night in the coaches’ locker room, head-coach-in-waiting Kellen Sampson, Kelvin’s son, looked at Shead’s ankle and shook his head. “This just keeps happening to us,” he said.
Each of the last three Houston teams since the program’s 2021 Final Four appearance have looked capable of finally bringing Sampson the title that has eluded him in his decorated career. In KenPom.com’s adjusted efficiency margin rankings, the most popular statistical shorthand for measuring college basketball teams, the Cougars have finished No. 2 three years running; this year’s team opened at No. 1. But every NCAA Tournament run since 2021 has ended with what-ifs attached because of deflating injuries.
In 2021-22, leading scorer Marcus Sasser was playing like an All-American when he broke the fifth metatarsal in his foot right before Christmas, a day after starting wing Tramon Mark had season-ending shoulder surgery. The Cougars finished the ‘22-23 regular season ranked No. 1, but Sasser suffered a groin injury during the AAC tournament and aggravated it during the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, the same game in which Shead hyperextended his knee. Last March against Duke, when Shead rolled his right ankle going up for a layup, Houston was already playing without Jojo Tugler and Terrance Arceneaux, both lost to prior season-ending injuries. The Cougars were controlling the game before Shead’s injury, but they just weren’t the same after.
At 69, Kelvin Sampson is still one of the best coaches in the sport, validated by this late-career run of regular-season dominance.
“When you get to be my age, I think you look at it as, let’s keep doing what we’re doing,” Sampson said this fall. “We don’t need to change anything.”
But once the Sampsons returned home and started looking ahead, knowing they would have another team good enough to win a title — everyone of significance, minus Shead, was back — Kellen suggested to his dad they be proactive.
The formula obviously works, but it needed a tweak.
Houston is the most physical team in college basketball for a reason. “You don’t practice soft and play tough,” is the line that defines Sampson’s program, and the preseason sets the tone. Rebounding drills with a bubble on the basket; brick slides, in which players have to hold up bricks while sliding from lane line to lane line; loose-ball drills that resemble a football fumble scrum; inclined sprints in a parking garage.
Last season, all those practices added up. The Cougars started earlier than usual because of a four-game exhibition tour of Australia in August, which granted them 10 official practices in July. By March, Kellen could see the mileage showing: “I thought that our needle got pretty close to empty, a little quicker than we would have wanted.”
How could a perennial contender be better longer into the spring? Kellen looked to LeBron James, who credits low-impact training for his staying power at the top of the basketball world. James has said if he had only one piece of equipment to train with for the rest of his life, it’d be the VersaClimber, an upright full-body workout machine.
This spring Houston purchased five VersaClimbers — specifically modified for taller users — and they arrived in time for summer school. The head coach was receptive to a change but a little worried it’d go against his mantra. “This ain’t cheer camp,” he would say.
Then he saw his players try the VersaClimber.
“And I go, I like the VersaClimber, because they hate it,” Kelvin Sampson said, flashing a big grin. “That thing is a problem. And our guys, it just puts them on their knees.”
“It’s no fun,” senior L.J. Cryer said.
“It’s easily the worst thing I’ve ever done in my life,” J’Wan Roberts said. “Easily. I feel like it hurts more when you get off. When you’re on it, you’re pushing, you’re pushing. But when you get off, it’s like your legs burnt.”
The VersaClimber replaced incline runs in the parking garage. Houston stayed off pavement and spent a couple weeks training in the sand this summer. The staff also consulted with NBA teams on ankle testing protocols and bought a machine for isometrically testing ankle and Achilles strength.
Sampson also wielded time on the VersaClimber as a punishment for mistakes. One of the VersaClimbers has taken up permanent residence in the corner of the practice gym.
When the Cougars went through speed and agility tests this fall, this year’s group posted faster results than any of Sampson’s first 10 teams. With almost an identical roster to last year, it was obvious what the difference maker was.
Sometimes injuries happen, like Shead’s sprained ankle — “purely fate, luck, misfortune,” Kelvin Sampson said — but if these changes could help reduce the chances for injury by even a half a percentage point, then it was worth it.
During halftime of an October exhibition game, Sampson narrowed his gaze toward Oklahoma transfer guard Milos Uzan and implored him not to be afraid to shoot. Sampson’s suggestion that Uzan not act like he’s stealing candy from a five-and-dime store got a chuckle from the older folks in the back of the locker room, but it’s doubtful his players were familiar with the old-timey establishments he was referencing.
“Milos from Vegas?” Kellen Sampson said. “No chance.”
Some of his humor might go over the heads of his players, but the elder Sampson does not have any issue connecting with young people, demonstrated by the fact that his late 60s have been the prime of his career.
Sampson is aging like there’s a blockage in the hourglass. At practice, he often has a player stand off to the side as he takes his place and demonstrates what he wants.
“He’s probably the most consistent person I’ve ever met in my life,” said Roberts, who has been at Houston for six years. “Screams like he’s 30. Might be a little slow when he’s walking, but that intensity and fire is still there.”
“I never really thought about coaching at 70 until I turned 69,” Sampson said, chuckling. “Then I realized the next number.”
In 2019 after Houston made its first Sweet 16 trip under Sampson, Kellen worried that his father’s coaching days were numbered because his hips had impacted his quality of life.
“He was starting to have some negative thoughts,” Kellen said. “My grandfather had battled a lot of health issues. He passed when I was 28 (Kellen is 39 now), and I don’t remember my grandfather not having physical health issues. And I think some of that started to worry my dad. Am I following a similar path?”
The pandemic-canceled 2020 postseason provided an opportunity. The forced time away from the gym convinced Sampson he had a window to get surgery and recover.
“That changed everything,” Kellen said.
Now, Sampson rides scooters and bikes when goes to Kellen’s to see his grandchildren. He’ll go down slides in the park. “If you spend any time with him,” Kellen said, “there’s nothing about him which makes you think he’s slowing down.”
As a graduate assistant at Michigan State In 1979, Sampson and Tom Izzo used to roll out baskets to a parking lot, get some string and erasable paint and line off courts for summer camp. Early in his head coaching career, Sampson did everything because he didn’t have much help. At Montana Tech, his assistant coach (a volunteer) couldn’t even travel to road games because there wasn’t room in the van, which Sampson drove. Once he landed in bigger jobs at Washington State, Oklahoma and finally Indiana, he still wanted to be involved with everything.
Kellen is convinced his father’s late-career ascent was a direct result of being forced out at Indiana in 2008 and landing in the NBA as an assistant coach.
“A six-year recharge,” Kellen said. “Away from the cauldron, away from being the governor. He got off the hamster wheel where everything was just this endless cycle of perpetual work. He got a chance to spend some time without all of the intense pressure and scrutiny all the time, and the daily beatdown of being in the top tier.”
When Sampson returned to college, he surrounded himself with people he knew and trusted — including his son and the backcourt from his 2002 Final Four team — and the staff has seen few changes in 11 years. Lamar coach Alvin Brooks is the only assistant coach who has left, and eight of the staffers on his original staff are still at Houston.
“One of the signs of him getting older is that he just doesn’t care about things he can’t control anymore,” Kellen said. “I’m choosing not to worry about that. I’m choosing happy every day.”
Sampson’s zen-ish approach has also allowed him not to let the recent bad injury luck consume him. He quotes an old Tiger Woods line: “Keep getting to the back nine with a chance to win, eventually things will go your way.”
The Cougars get to the back nine just about every March. Their 2018 tourney team, the first under Sampson, was the only one not to make the second weekend, and it lost on a buzzer beater to eventual national runner-up Michigan in the second round.
Sampson believes almost every team he’s had since has been good enough to win the title, with one exception: the 2021 team that actually made the Final Four.
“We weren’t better than Baylor,” he said. “They were different. Best team we’ve played against in the 10 years I’ve been here. But this team, if this team stays healthy…”
Sampson’s mind wandered off to his rotation and how he’s trying to get Arceneaux, working his way back into game action after an Achilles tear, to trust that he’s going to be OK.
“I’ve realized it’s not good enough to be good enough,” he said. “You’ve got to be good enough and fortune has to smile your way sometime.”
The question is: How many more shots does he have left?
Sampson won’t give a number. “I think at some point all coaches have to think about what’s best for the game,” he said. “I want to be a good coach. I don’t want to be an old coach.”
Kellen has been the coach-in-waiting since 2023, which has kept him from even considering other opportunities that have arisen in recent years.
“Regardless of what’s waiting for me when I become a head coach. I’m never going to get these years with my dad back,” Kellen said. “I’m wagering big and I’d do it 100 times over that I’m going to cherish and love these years I’m getting with my dad way more than whatever extra years I would have had sitting in the big chair. I’m getting to extend time with my hero.”
Kellen’s sister Lauren isn’t going to give a number either, but the one change she’s noticed in her dad is that he smiles easier now. She saw Rob Gray, the star of the 2018 team, as the first senior who started to savor every moment once February hit. “I would say dad’s the same way,” she said. “You feel things more acutely. The joy is bigger. The heartbreak.”
The pain Sampson felt last March was not for himself, he said; it’s always for the players, especially his seniors.
Sampson gets another chance, and he would love to win that elusive title, but thinking about it won’t help.
“Just do the best you can, but do the best you can,” he said. “Do not not do the best you can. That’s important that you do that, because I owe it to these kids. I owe it to them. And that’s why, if it happens, it happens. If it doesn’t, I’ve done everything I can to help them, put them in the best position so they can win.”
This summer on a lazy Saturday afternoon, Sampson was at his office with his grandchildren when someone stopped by and told him that his former players in town training for The Basketball Tournament were playing at the arena.
Sampson and his grandchildren hustled over to the Fertita Center for what felt like a reunion.
“It was like a picture of what this program is about,” he said. “Because that doesn’t happen at every school. But in some ways that’s your championship is the program you built. I know what stage we’re on and our opportunities that we have and I hope we make it. I just know how hard it is.”
This year again promises to be a grind — Houston is one of six Big 12 teams in the Top 25 and will play at least two Final Four hopefuls before conference play begins. Kellen, meanwhile, does not shy away from the urgency that is felt to make sure his dad cuts down a net on the final Monday of the season before he turns in his whistle:
“Every second, every day. One VersaClimber at a time.”
(Top photo: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
Culture
ESPN’s ‘Around the Horn’ ending in 2025 after 23-year run: Sources
One of ESPN’s longtime programming staples, “Around the Horn,” will come to an end in the summer of 2025, two sources briefed on the plans confirmed Thursday. The New York Post first reported the news.
The roundtable discussion show, which features notable panelists from the media world discussing the day’s top stories, launched in 2002 with Max Kellerman as host. Tony Reali took over hosting duties in 2004 and has remained in that role ever since. The show became a popular mainstay on the network in the 5 p.m. ET time slot, pairing with “Pardon the Interruption” and featuring sportswriters and media personalities from around the country, including Woody Paige, Mina Kimes, Bill Plaschke, Jackie MacMullan, J.A. Adande and Elle Duncan, among others.
Erik Rydholm, the creator and executive producer of “Pardon the Interruption,” has overseen “Around the Horn” since 2004.
The Athletic’s Stephen J. Nesbitt described the show in a story on Reali in 2022 as evolving “from a barrage of bombastic debate into a smarter show where banter and nuance can coexist,” and wrote that “Reali has developed from a facilitator, a pass-first point guard, into a host whose voice and vulnerability have made a glorified game show into a refreshingly genuine space.”
It’s unclear what will be next for Reali, 46. In terms of the show’s slot, the network and Rydholm’s team are exploring other shows but don’t have an exact plan yet, a source briefed on the matter confirmed.
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