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How the NFL views the NIL era: 'This whole draft landscape has changed'

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How the NFL views the NIL era: 'This whole draft landscape has changed'

The bright lights and quarterback debates will be there as always when the NFL Draft starts Thursday night. But something’s different this year, which will become more evident as the rounds turn and we get into Day 3 on Saturday.

Only 58 underclassmen have declared for this week’s draft — down from 130 players in 2021 and the smallest number of underclassmen since 2011. For those in NFL circles, the introduction of NIL money is a clear factor.

“It’s crazy to fathom that some of these guys made more money in college than they will in the NFL,” Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur said.

Players started signing marketing deals after the Supreme Court’s 2021 ruling that collegiate athletes are entitled to payment for their “name, image and likeness.” The pandemic-shortened season in 2020 has also played a part in players staying in school, as they were granted an extra year of eligibility. And then the NCAA allowed players to transfer without sitting out a year.

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How name, image and likeness is impacting NFL draft decisions

NIL payments are not public figures, but most players who will be selected in the top three rounds this week have money in the bank now. USC quarterback Caleb Williams, the projected top pick to the Chicago Bears, has been estimated to have earned around $10 million while in school. He may be an outlier, but NFL coaches are noticing a difference in their interactions with draft prospects in the NIL era.

“You look for the guys that have that look in their eye,” Las Vegas Raiders coach Antonio Pierce said. “You can really feel it, and you can also see the guys that are entitled, that have NIL money, which is an issue because they come in privileged. They have money in the bank.

“When I came in the league, I was broke. These guys already got goddamn jewelry on and the Louis Vuitton rocking already.”


Las Vegas Raiders coach Antonio Pierce wants to see players enter the NFL with the same type of competitive edge that he possessed. (Steve Marcus / Getty Images)

Pierce wants players with an edge, and he feels that already having money in the bank from college might affect how hard they are willing to work to crack a starting lineup in the NFL. Compounding that problem, Minnesota Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said it’s harder to know how players respond to adversity when so many hit the transfer portal at the drop of a hat.

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“They already have money in their pocket, so you see some guys not going as hard in the pre-draft process,” agent Ron Slavin said. “And no one is eating those packs of ramen noodles anymore.”

The NFL minimum salary for a rookie in 2024 is $795,000. Players who are drafted sign standard four-year deals — contracts for first-round picks also include a fifth-year option — that are scaled based on the draft slot. The slotted deal for the No. 1 pick — presumably Williams — is $38.5 million over four years. By the start of the second round, the four-year value dips to under $10 million. From about the fourth round on, players make an average of roughly $1 million per season on their rookie deals.

And that’s where there appears to be a huge drop-off in player quality in this year’s draft.

“Clubs are saying that this is a really good draft through 150 picks, and then after that it falls off a cliff,” agent Steve Caric said.

New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen said Thursday that, according to the team’s assistant director of player personnel, Dennis Hickey, 170 players with draftable grades returned to school this year.

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“Because of COVID partly and NIL, this whole draft landscape has changed,” Baltimore Ravens GM Eric DeCosta said. “There’s less draftable players, less underclassmen.”

“All those guys stayed in school for NIL money,” Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy said. “You’re going to see teams drafting players late that they usually sign as priority free agents.”

Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said players he has been scouting for years still are not in the draft.

“It’s a supply and demand issue,” he said. “Defensive line was apparently a big issue in college, and a lot of those guys got a lot of money to go back to college. And so that’s gonna affect our league and the depth of that position and different things.”

NFL teams will likely spend the run-up to the draft looking to package fifth-, sixth- and seventh-round picks and move up.

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“We’ve talked about the idea of, (in) the later rounds of the draft, if there’s nobody there that you covet, potentially trading that pick for a better pick,” DeCosta said.


The feeling around the NFL is the quality of draft prospects drops after this year’s fourth round, in part because so many players elected to stay in school. (Michael Wade / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Jason Belzer, the CEO and co-founder of Student Athlete NIL (SANIL), manages more than 30 booster collectives for some of the bigger Power 5 schools.

“I think the NIL has affected the NFL considerably, but for the better,” Belzer said. “You have more and more players that are choosing to stay in college football and develop and get paid, rather than go into the draft. There are multiple quarterbacks that made over a million dollars that are not going to get that kind of money because they’re going to be late-round picks. The NIL is the best thing that ever happened to the NFL when it comes to development.”

He estimates that 40 college players made more than the 2023 minimum NFL salary of $750,000, with a lot more making $500,000, including a tackle projected to go in the sixth round this week. Belzer said that roughly five players per Power 5 roster make more than $100,000.

For late-round picks who aren’t guaranteed to make the roster, the decision to return to school can be quite easy.

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“Getting drafted is a significant honor no matter where you go — even the sixth or seventh round — but if you’re a seventh-round pick, you’re getting, like, a $90,000 signing bonus, and that’s the only guaranteed part of your contract,” agent Eugene Lee said. “Compare that to a school where you have a front-line starter at a P4 school and you say, ‘Hey, come back! We’ll give you $350,000.’ It’s just like, ‘OK.’ You take out a loss-of-value policy and there you go.”

The later-round prospects simply are taking advantage of a chance to have their cake and eat it too.

“A fourth-round pick, for example, has a chance to go back to school and get better, move his draft status up and then make more money next year,” Caric said. “And as insurance, he can make what he would make with a Day 3 signing bonus thanks to NIL and coming back to school.”

More collegiate experience can be a good thing, especially at the quarterback position. Jayden Daniels played in 55 games at Arizona State and LSU, almost double the number of games North Carolina’s Drake Maye played in (28).

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“We don’t have a minor league, and those extra years is maybe a couple of minor-league years,” Adofo-Mensah said. “And that also depends on where they’re playing and the system, how relatable that is to our game.”

The Vikings, who hold picks Nos. 11 and 23 in the first round, could trade up to fill their quarterback need or just stay put and use their first pick on the best player available and the latter pick on someone like Oregon QB Bo Nix. Nix played a whopping 61 games at Auburn and Oregon and thinks his experience gives him an edge over the other potential first-round quarterbacks.

“Repetition is the mother of all skill, so the more you can do something, the better you become at it,” Nix said at the combine. “I was able to prove that as the years went on, getting better and better, learning new things, playing in different systems — five in five years is a lot, but that’s a lot of fun. And I wouldn’t trade it for the world.”

Nix is 24 years old, which could impact his perceived upside.


Bo Nix’s age (24) could work against him in the draft process, but he thinks his experience is a benefit. (Zac BonDurant / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

“I don’t think it’s a bad thing if you come out a little bit older — and maybe even a better thing,” Raiders GM Tom Telesco said. “You’ve got more experience under your belt, more maturity at that position. Other positions, it may or may not matter.

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“Typically as a scouting staff, we always say we’d like a younger player because the guy has a chance to develop, maybe has a little bit more ceiling. Is that true or not? I’m not really sure. But I do know that we’re going to have some players coming in the league that have good experience and may be ready to play a little bit earlier than maybe in times past.”

Nix could have entered the draft last year but stayed for a chance to win a national championship and had the cushion NIL allows.

That experience edge might only hold for quarterbacks, though.

“I can’t tell you how many conversations I have had in the last couple of weeks where I ask a club about Player A or Player B; the older age is always a minus,” Caric said. “They obviously want to draft someone they’re going to have for more than one contract. When you come into the league at 24 years old with these super-senior years, that’s not as attractive as the 21-year-old.”

Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham was able to enjoy a different college lifestyle than previous players but said the extra money also helped him prepare for the NFL.

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“It definitely has you grow up,” Latham said at the combine. “You gotta understand that you’re getting more money now, so there’s gonna be a bigger target on your back.”

It can also help players learn to manage their money before their first NFL rookie camp.

“If you want to create more wealth for yourself and your family, you gotta really understand how to maneuver it and manage it,” Latham said. “Definitely puts you in the mindset to really understand what’s going on around you and how (you can) create your wealth early.”


All these players staying in school have to come out at some point, so the number of draftable players will grow again next year.

And GMs and coaches still need to draft good players to keep their jobs — owners don’t want to hear an excuse about the NIL impact after another losing season.

“I do think — especially in the early rounds — it’s a very good draft,” Denver Broncos GM George Paton said.

And though the NFL can wring its hands a bit about NIL, it doesn’t change how it watches a player’s game tape and decides who to invest in.

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“It hasn’t changed our preparation that much,” said first-year Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, a former defensive coordinator at Michigan. “I was ready for it since we had it down back at Michigan.

“The only thing is that some of these players are going to have to take a pay cut to play in the league.”

— Staff writer Tashan Reed contributed to this report.

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(Top illustration: Dan Golfarb / The Athletic; top photos of Roger Goodell and Caleb Williams: Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images and Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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Xia De-hong, 94, Dies; Persecuted in China, She Starred in Daughter’s Memoir

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Xia De-hong, 94, Dies; Persecuted in China, She Starred in Daughter’s Memoir

Xia De-hong, who survived persecution and torture as an official in Mao Zedong’s China and was later the central figure in her daughter’s best-selling 1991 memoir, “Wild Swans: Three Daughters of China,” died on April 15 in Chengdu, China. She was 94.

Ms. Xia’s death, in a hospital, was confirmed by her daughter Jung Chang.

Ms. Chang’s memoir, which was banned in China, was a groundbreaking, intimate account of the country’s turbulent 20th century and the iron grip of Mao’s Communist Party, told through the lives of three generations of women: herself, her mother and her grandmother. An epic of imprisonment, suffering and family loyalty, it sold over 15 million copies in 40 languages.

The story of Ms. Chang’s stoic mother holding the family together while battling on behalf of her husband, a functionary who was tortured and imprisoned during Mao’s regime, was the focus of “Wild Swans,” which emerged out of hours of recordings that Ms. Chang made when Ms. Xia visited her in London in 1988.

Ms. Xia was inspired as a teenager to become an ardent Communist revolutionary because of the mistreatment of women in the Republic of China, as well as the corruption of the Kuomintang nationalists in power. (Her own mother had been forced into concubinage at 15 by a powerful warlord.)

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In 1947, in Ms. Xia’s home city of Jinzhou, the Communists were waging guerrilla war against the government. She joined the struggle by distributing pamphlets for Mao, rolling them up inside green peppers after they had been smuggled into the city in bundles of sorghum stalks.

Captured by the Kuomintang, she was forced to listen to “the screams of people being tortured in the rooms nearby,” her daughter later wrote. But that only stiffened her resolve.

She married Chang Shou-yu, an up-and-coming Communist civil servant and acolyte of Mao, in 1949.

It was then that disillusionment began to set in, according to her daughter. The newlyweds were ordered to travel a thousand miles to Sichuan, her husband’s home province. Because of Mr. Chang’s rank, he was allowed to ride in a jeep, but she had to walk, even though she was pregnant, and suffered a miscarriage as a result.

“She was vomiting all the time,” her daughter wrote. “Could he not let her travel in his jeep occasionally? He said he could not, because it would be taken as favoritism since my mother was not entitled to the car.”

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That was the first of many times that her husband would insist she bow to the rigid dictates of the party, despite the immense suffering it caused.

When she was a party official in the mid-1950s, Ms. Xia was investigated for her “bourgeois” background and imprisoned for months. She received little support from Mr. Chang.

“As my mother was leaving for detention,” Ms. Chang wrote, “my father advised her: ‘Be completely honest with the party, and have complete trust in it. It will give you the right verdict.’ A wave of aversion swept over her.”

Upon her release in 1957, she told her husband, “You are a good Communist, but a rotten husband.” Mr. Chang could only nod in agreement.

He became one of the top officials in Sichuan, entitled to a life of privilege. But by the late 1960s, he had become outraged by the injustices of the Cultural Revolution, Mao’s blood-soaked purge, and was determined to register a formal complaint.

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Ms. Xia was in despair; she knew what became of families who spoke out. “Why do you want to be a moth that throws itself into the fire?” she asked.

Mr. Chang’s career was over, and both he and his wife were subjected to physical abuse and imprisoned. Ms. Xia’s position was lower profile; she was in charge of resolving personal problems, such as housing, transfers and pensions, for people in her district. But that did not save her from brutal treatment.

Ms. Xia was made to kneel on broken glass; paraded through the streets of Chengdu wearing a dunce’s cap and a heavy placard with her name crossed out; and forced to bow to jeering crowds.

Still, she resisted pressure from the party to denounce her husband. And unlike many other women in her position, she refused to divorce him.

Twice she journeyed to Beijing to seek his release, the second time securing a meeting with the prime minister, Zhou Enlai, who was considered a moderate. Ms. Xia was “one of the very few spouses of victims who had the courage to go and appeal in Peking,” her daughter wrote in “Wild Swans.”

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But Ms. Xia and her husband never criticized the Cultural Revolution in front of their children, checked by the party’s absolute power and the fear it inspired.

“My parents never said anything to me or my siblings,” Ms. Chang wrote. “The restraints which had kept them silent about politics before still prevented them from opening their minds to us.”

She was held at Xichiang prison camp from 1969 to 1971 as a “class enemy,” made to do heavy labor and endure denunciation meetings.

The camp, though less harsh than her husband’s, was a bitter experience. “She reflected with remorse on the pointlessness of her devotion,” her daughter wrote. “She found she missed her children with a pain which was almost unbearable.”

Xia De-hong was born on May 4, 1931, in Yixian, the daughter of Yang Yu-fang and Gen. Xue Zhi-heng, the inspector general of the metropolitan police in the nationalist government.

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When she was an infant, her mother fled the house of the general, who was dying, and returned to her parents, eventually marrying a rich Manchurian doctor, Xia Rui-tang.

Ms. Xia grew up in Jinzhou, Manchuria, where she attended school before joining the Communist underground.

In the 1950s, when she began to have doubts about the Communist Party, she considered abandoning it and pursuing her dream of studying medicine, her daughter said. But the idea terrified her husband, Ms. Chang said in an interview, because it would have meant disavowing the Communists.

By the late 1950s, during the Mao-induced Great Famine that killed tens of millions, both of her parents had become “totally disillusioned,” Ms. Chang said, and “could no longer find excuses to forgive their party.”

Mr. Chang died in 1975, broken by years of imprisonment and ill treatment. Ms. Xia retired from her government service, as deputy head of the People’s Congress of the Eastern District of Chengdu, in 1983.

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Besides Ms. Chang, Ms. Xia is survived by another daughter, Xiao-hong Chang; three sons, Jin-ming, Xiao-hei and Xiao-fang; and two grandchildren.

Jung Chang saw her mother for the last time in 2018. Ms. Chang’s criticism of the regime, in her memoir and a subsequent biography, made returning to China unthinkable. She told the BBC in a recent interview that she never knew whether her mother had read “Wild Swans.”

But the advice her mother gave her and her brother Xiao-hei, a journalist who also lives in London, was firm: “She only wanted us to write truthfully, and accurately.”

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Why Is Everyone Obsessed With Bogs?

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Why Is Everyone Obsessed With Bogs?

In prehistoric northern Europe, peatlands — areas of waterlogged soil rich with decaying plant matter — were considered spiritual sites. Since then, swords, jewelry and even human bodies have been found fossilized in their sludgy depths. More recently, however, many of these bogs have been depleted by overharvesting, neglect and development. But as awareness of their important role in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere grows, more wetlands are being restored, while also serving as unlikely creative inspiration. Here’s how bogs are showing up in the culture.

At fall 2026 Paris Fashion Week, several houses — including Louis Vuitton (above left) and Hermès — staged shows amid mossy sets featuring spongy green structures and mounds of vegetation. And the Danish fashion brand Solitude Studios is distressing its eerie, grungy looks (above right) by submerging them in a local peat bog.

For her exhibition at California’s San José Museum of Art, on view through October, the Chalon Nation artist Christine Howard Sandoval is presenting sculptures, drawings and plant-dyed works (above) exploring how the state’s wetlands were once sites of Indigenous resistance and community. This month, at Storm King Art Center in New York’s Hudson Valley, the conceptual artist Anicka Yi will unveil an outdoor installation featuring six-foot-tall transparent columns holding algae-rich ecosystems cultivated from nearby pond water and soil.

The Bog Bothy (above), a mobile design project by the Dublin-based architecture practice 12th Field in collaboration with the Irish Architecture Foundation, was inspired by the makeshift huts once used by peat cutters who harvested the material for fuel. After debuting in the Irish Midlands last year, it’ll tour the region again this summer. In Edinburgh, the designer Oisín Gallagher is making doorstops from subfossilized bog-oak scraps carbon-dated to 3300 B.C.

At La Grenouillère on France’s north coast, the chef Alexandre Gauthier reflects the restaurant’s reedy, frog-filled river valley landscape with dishes like a “marsh bubble” of herbs encased in hardened sugar. This spring, Aponiente — the chef Ángel León’s restaurant inside a 19th-century tidal mill on Spain’s Bay of Cádiz — added an outdoor dining area on a pier above the neighboring marshland, serving local sea grasses and salt marsh flowers alongside seafood (above) from the estuary.

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Credit…Penguin Random House

The Irish British writer Maggie O’Farrell’s forthcoming novel, “Land,” about an Irish cartographer and his son surveying the island in 1865 after the Great Famine, depicts haunting encounters with the verdant landscape, including its plentiful oozing bogs.

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Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas

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Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas

SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay, by Mary Lisa Gavenas


Mary Kay, the cosmetics company whose multilevel marketing included sales parties and whose biggest earners were awarded pink Cadillacs, was really in the business of selling second chances. Or, at least, that’s what Mary Lisa Gavenas argues in “Selling Opportunity,” a dual biography of the brand and the woman behind it.

Mary Kathlyn Wagner, who would become Mary Kay Ash, “the most famous saleswoman in the world” and “maybe the most famous ever,” in Gavenas’s extravagant words, was born in 1918 to a poor family and raised mostly in Houston. Although a good student, she eloped at 16 with a slightly older boy. The young couple had two babies in quick succession.

Mary Kay’s creation was a combination of timing and good luck. Door-to-door sales was a thriving industry — but, traditionally, a man’s world: Lugging heavy samples was not considered feminine, and entering the homes of strangers, unsafe. But things began to change during the Great Depression, Gavenas suggests, thanks to a convergence of factors — financial pressures and the rise of the aspirational prosperity gospel espoused by Dale Carnegie’s self-help manuals.

At the same time, female-run beauty lines like Annie Turnbo Malone’s Poro and Madam C.J. Walker’s were finding great success in Black communities. And, coincidentally or otherwise, the California Perfume Company changed its name to Avon Products in 1939.

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Ash began by selling books door to door, moving on to Stanley Home Products in the 1940s. She was talented, but direct sales was a rough gig. Every party to show off wares was supposed to beget two more bookings; these led to sales that resulted in new recruits. But there was no real security or stability: no salary, no medical benefits, no vacations. “Stop selling and you would end up right back where you started. Or worse,” the author writes.

Gavenas, a onetime beauty editor who wrote “Color Stories,” takes her time unspooling Mary Kay’s tale, with a great deal of evident research. We learn about direct sales, women’s rights and Texas history.

But, be warned: Readers must really enjoy both this woman and this world to take pleasure in “Selling Opportunity.” Mary Kay the person keeps marrying, getting divorced or widowed and working her way through various sales jobs (it’s hard to keep track of the myriad companies and last names). Gavenas seems to leave no detail out. Thus, the 1963 founding of the eponymous beauty company doesn’t come until almost 200 pages in.

Beauty by Mary Kay included a Cleansing Cream, a Magic Masque and a Nite Cream (which containined ammoniated mercury, later banned by the F.D.A.). The full line of products — which was how Mary Kay strongly encouraged customers to buy them — ran to a steep $175 in today’s money. (To fail to acquire the whole set, Ash said, was “like giving you my recipe for chocolate cake but leaving out an important ingredient.”)

Potential clients attended gatherings at acquaintances’ homes — no undignified doorbell-ringing here — where they received a mini facial, then an application of cosmetics like foundation, lip color and cream rouge — and a wig. The company made $198,514 in sales its first year.

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Although Ash may have seemed a pioneer, in many ways Mary Kay was a traditionalist company, whose philosophy was “God first, family second, career third.” Saleswomen, official literature dictated, were working to provide themselves with treats rather than necessities so as not to threaten their breadwinner husbands.

And yet, they were also encouraged to sell sell sell. Golden Goblet pendants were awarded for major orders. After the company started using custom pink Peterbilt trucks for shipping, it began commissioning those Cadillacs for top consultants. (Mary Kay preferred gifts to cash bonuses, lest women save the money to spend on practical things rather than the licensed frivolities.) The Cadillacs, always driven on company leases, would become industry legend and part of American pop culture lore. “Never to be run-down, repainted or resold, the cars would double as shining pink advertisements for her selling opportunity,” Gavenas writes.

The woman herself was iconic, too. While Ash was a product of the Depression, she was also undeniably over-the-top. She wore white suits with leopard trim, lived in a custom Frank L. Meier house and brought her poodle to the office.

Mary Kay went public in 1968, making her the first woman to chair a company on the New York Stock Exchange. By the 1990s, the Mary Kay headquarters near Dallas was almost 600,000 square feet. They commissioned a hagiographic company biopic; there was a Mary Kay consultant Barbie; they were making $1 billion in wholesale. When she died, in 2001, Ash was worth $98 million.

And yet, Gavenas cites that at the company’s height, in 1992, sales reps made on average just $2,400 per year.

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Instead of so much time in the pink fantasia of Mary Kay, it would have been nice for a few detours showing how infrequently the opportunities the company sold were truly realized.

SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay | By Mary Lisa Gavenas | Viking | 435 pp. | $35

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