Culture
Five things we learned about the College Football Playoff race in Week 1
The first full Saturday of the college football season is in the books, and the College Football Playoff race is already top of mind.
Yes, it’s only one week of games. Yes, we always overreact to Week 1. Yes, there’s a ton of football still to be played. But it’s impossible to ignore the new 12-team CFP because every Football Bowl Subdivision team enters the season with a chance to make the field now. And even one week of action was enough to inform some takeaways that will impact the CFP race the rest of the way.
Here are five Playoff-adjacent lessons from Week 1.
1. Brace yourself for some blowouts in December.
Lopsided results were a frequent concern in the 10 years of the four-team CFP. Whether in the semifinals (Alabama vs. everyone) or the national championship game (Georgia 65, TCU 7), several Playoff matchups turned into blowouts because the top couple of teams in the sport were so much better than everyone else. Georgia and Clemson’s neutral-site opener in Atlanta doubled as a test for a 12-team era, as the No. 1 ranked SEC favorite took on one of the top teams in the ACC, ranked No. 14.
The result: a 34-3 beatdown in which the Bulldogs outscored the Tigers by 25 in the second half. Georgia looks as good as everyone thought it would be. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs not reaching the Playoff for the third time in four years, whether as the SEC champion or as one of the seven at-large selections. Georgia has a tough schedule, traveling to Alabama in Week 4, to Texas in mid-October and to Ole Miss in November, but any SEC contender with two losses is still likely to make the field. That fact may one day take some of the shine off of these high-profile nonconference regular season tests, but that’s the price being paid to ensure more universal championship access in an expanded Playoff. And if this Georgia team gets matched up with another ACC team, a Big 12 team or a Group of 5 team in December’s early rounds, the talent disparity could lead to ugly final margins like we saw on Saturday.
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Clemson, meanwhile, exhibited all the same offensive problems it did a year ago. Georgia may be the best team in the country, but the Tigers again don’t look like a national championship contender based on Saturday’s effort. Still, the 12-team format means no Power 4 conference team’s season is done after Week 1. All Clemson has to do is win the ACC to guarantee itself a spot. And that still seems doable because…
2. Miami looks fantastic, but the rest of the ACC does not.
While the ACC league office battles Florida State and Clemson in court amid the two members’ ongoing efforts to break free from the conference’s grant of rights agreement, it would’ve behooved the ACC to get off to a strong start on the field and keep the realignment noise in the background. The league entered the season with no shortage of optimism thanks to seven teams in the AP poll’s top 30 (three of which landed just outside the Top 25).
Instead, it’s been a rough first week for what was perceived to be the top of the league. Defending champion and preseason favorite Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in Ireland in Week 0, Clemson got shellacked by Georgia on Saturday, popular dark horse pick Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt, and preseason No. 24 NC State needed a fourth-quarter comeback to escape Western Carolina on Thursday.
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But then there’s Miami! The Hurricanes lived up to their offseason hype with a dominant 41-17 win at Florida. Transfer quarterback Cam Ward looked spectacular, as did Miami’s other transfer additions. That is getting what you paid for. It’s only one week, but Miami looked like the best team in the league by a wide margin. And with a schedule that avoids Clemson and draws Virginia Tech and Florida State at home, Miami will suddenly be a very popular pick to make the CFP.
The Hurricanes now have a 42 percent chance to make the Playoff and a 23 percent chance to win the ACC, per Austin Mock’s projections model, while Clemson and Florida State have each fallen to a 20 percent chance to make the CFP. Beyond Miami, the rest of the league will need to play much better if the conference wants to find a second CFP bid.
ACC title and Playoff odds (Sept. 1)
Find all CFP projections here
3. Penn State looks like a real contender.
When the CFP expanded to 12 teams, Penn State looked to be the biggest beneficiary: The Nittany Lions finished ranked in the top 12 six times since 2016 but never made the four-team CFP field.
That feeling is even stronger after Penn State’s dominant 34-12 win at West Virginia. The defense was its normal physical and stout self, but the offense was explosive, and dare I say exciting, after drawing meme-worthy ridicule for its unwillingness to attack vertically last year. The Nittany Lions had two completions of at least 50 yards on Saturday after having just five all of last season. Quarterback Drew Allar finished 11 of 17 passing for 216 yards and three touchdowns, plus another 44 yards on the ground. He looked composed and sharp on the road in a way he didn’t last year.
It’s early, but Penn State looked like a team that might just not make the CFP, but win a game or two. The Nittany Lions now have a 74 percent chance to make the CFP, per our model, up from 67 percent before Week 1.
4. Notre Dame has an inside path to the Playoff already.
As an independent, the Fighting Irish don’t have a conference championship to play for, and because the top four seeds in the expanded CFP go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, even a Notre Dame team ranked No. 1 at the end of the season would not get a first-round bye. Still, the additional at-large bids available in the expanded field greatly help the Irish’s chances of making the Playoff, and after a season-opening 23-13 win against Texas A&M in College Station, Notre Dame should already be heavily favored to qualify, with a 72 percent to make it, according to The Athletic’s model.
It’s very likely Notre Dame will be favored in every game left on its schedule: The toughest remaining games are probably at Georgia Tech, at home against Florida State and at USC to close the year. The Irish can probably afford to lose one of those and still make the CFP field at 11-1. Marcus Freeman’s team has Playoff expectations this year, and Saturday’s win was a massive step toward that goal. A consequential Week 1 win makes their margin for error that much wider.
5. The Group of 5 favorites escaped some scares, with big Power 4 tests ahead.
The new stakes for the Group of 5 were made clear immediately when Boise State, the preseason favorite for the CFP spot reserved for the G5’s highest-ranked conference champion, trailed Georgia Southern on the road in the fourth quarter. The Broncos rallied to win 56-45 on the back of 377 rushing yards between Ashton Jeanty and Sire Gaines, retaining their Mountain West front-runner status and juicing Jeanty’s draft stock. Next up is a trip to Oregon, which needed to hold on to survive an upset bid from FCS Idaho.
Sun Belt favorite Appalachian State led East Tennessee State by just seven points deep into the third quarter but eventually won 38-10. Next up for the Mountaineers: a trip to Clemson.
Meanwhile, defending Conference USA champion Liberty trailed FCS Campbell deep into the second quarter and only led by 10 points entering the fourth but eventually won 41-24. AAC favorite Memphis, for its part, had no trouble during a 40-0 win against FCS North Alabama. The Tigers travel to Florida State in two weeks. The strength of these teams’ and their conferences’ resumes will be under scrutiny all fall.
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(Photo: Jack Gorman / Getty Images)
A famous poet once observed that it is difficult to get the news from poems. The weather is a different story. April showers, summer sunshine and — maybe especially — the chill of winter provide an endless supply of moods and metaphors. Poets like to practice a double meteorology, looking out at the water and up at the sky for evidence of interior conditions of feeling.
The inner and outer forecasts don’t always match up. This short poem by Louise Glück starts out cold and stays that way for most of its 11 lines.
And then it bursts into flame.
“Early December in Croton-on-Hudson” comes from Glück’s debut collection, “Firstborn,” which was published in 1968. She wrote the poems in it between the ages of 18 and 23, but they bear many of the hallmarks of her mature style, including an approach to personal matters — sex, love, illness, family life — that is at once uncompromising and elusive. She doesn’t flinch. She also doesn’t explain.
Here, for example, Glück assembles fragments of experience that imply — but also obscure — a larger narrative. It’s almost as if a short story, or even a novel, had been smashed like a glass Christmas ornament, leaving the reader to infer the sphere from the shards.
We know there was a couple with a flat tire, and that a year later at least one of them still has feelings for the other. It’s hard not to wonder if they’re still together, or where they were going with those Christmas presents.
To some extent, those questions can be addressed with the help of biographical clues. The version of “Early December in Croton-on-Hudson” that appeared in The Atlantic in 1967 was dedicated to Charles Hertz, a Columbia University graduate student who was Glück’s first husband. They divorced a few years later. Glück, who died in 2023, was never shy about putting her life into her work.
But the poem we are reading now is not just the record of a passion that has long since cooled. More than 50 years after “Firstborn,” on the occasion of receiving the Nobel Prize for literature, Glück celebrated the “intimate, seductive, often furtive or clandestine” relations between poets and their readers. Recalling her childhood discovery of William Blake and Emily Dickinson, she declared her lifelong ardor for “poems to which the listener or reader makes an essential contribution, as recipient of a confidence or an outcry, sometimes as co-conspirator.”
That’s the kind of poem she wrote.
“Confidence” can have two meanings, both of which apply to “Early December in Croton-on-Hudson.” Reading it, you are privy to a secret, something meant for your ears only. You are also in the presence of an assertive, self-possessed voice.
Where there is power, there’s also risk. To give voice to desire — to whisper or cry “I want you” — is to issue a challenge and admit vulnerability. It’s a declaration of conquest and a promise of surrender.
What happens next? That’s up to you.
Cold weather can serve as a plot point or emphasize the mood of a scene, and this week’s literary geography quiz highlights the locations of recent novels that work winter conditions right into the story. Even if you aren’t familiar with the book, the questions offer an additional hint about the setting. To play, just make your selection in the multiple-choice list and the correct answer will be revealed. At the end of the quiz, you’ll find links to the books if you’d like to do further reading.
When a writer is praised for having a sense of place, it usually means one specific place — a postage stamp of familiar ground rendered in loving, knowing detail. But Kiran Desai, in her latest novel, “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny,” has a sense of places.
This 670-page book, about the star-crossed lovers of the title and several dozen of their friends, relatives, exes and servants (there’s a chart in the front to help you keep track), does anything but stay put. If “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny” were an old-fashioned steamer trunk, it would be papered with shipping labels: from Allahabad (now known as Prayagraj), Goa and Delhi; from Queens, Kansas and Vermont; from Mexico City and, perhaps most delightfully, from Venice.
There, in Marco Polo’s hometown, the titular travelers alight for two chapters, enduring one of several crises in their passionate, complicated, on-again, off-again relationship. One of Venice’s nicknames is La Serenissima — “the most serene” — but in Desai’s hands it’s the opposite: a gloriously hectic backdrop for Sonia and Sunny’s romantic confusion.
Their first impressions fill a nearly page-long paragraph. Here’s how it begins.
Sonia is a (struggling) fiction writer. Sunny is a (struggling) journalist. It’s notable that, of the two of them, it is she who is better able to perceive the immediate reality of things, while he tends to read facts through screens of theory and ideology, finding sociological meaning in everyday occurrences. He isn’t exactly wrong, and Desai is hardly oblivious to the larger narratives that shape the fates of Sunny, Sonia and their families — including the economic and political changes affecting young Indians of their generation.
But “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny” is about more than that. It’s a defense of the very idea of more, and thus a rebuke to the austerity that defines so much recent literary fiction. Many of Desai’s peers favor careful, restricted third-person narration, or else a measured, low-affect “I.” The bookstores are full of skinny novels about the emotional and psychological thinness of contemporary life. This book is an antidote: thick, sloppy, fleshy, all over the place.
It also takes exception to the postmodern dogma that we only know reality through representations of it, through pre-existing concepts of the kind to which intellectuals like Sunny are attached. The point of fiction is to assert that the world is true, and to remind us that it is vast, strange and astonishing.
See the full list of the 10 Best Books of 2025 here.
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