Culture
Five things we learned about the College Football Playoff race in Week 1
The first full Saturday of the college football season is in the books, and the College Football Playoff race is already top of mind.
Yes, it’s only one week of games. Yes, we always overreact to Week 1. Yes, there’s a ton of football still to be played. But it’s impossible to ignore the new 12-team CFP because every Football Bowl Subdivision team enters the season with a chance to make the field now. And even one week of action was enough to inform some takeaways that will impact the CFP race the rest of the way.
Here are five Playoff-adjacent lessons from Week 1.
1. Brace yourself for some blowouts in December.
Lopsided results were a frequent concern in the 10 years of the four-team CFP. Whether in the semifinals (Alabama vs. everyone) or the national championship game (Georgia 65, TCU 7), several Playoff matchups turned into blowouts because the top couple of teams in the sport were so much better than everyone else. Georgia and Clemson’s neutral-site opener in Atlanta doubled as a test for a 12-team era, as the No. 1 ranked SEC favorite took on one of the top teams in the ACC, ranked No. 14.
The result: a 34-3 beatdown in which the Bulldogs outscored the Tigers by 25 in the second half. Georgia looks as good as everyone thought it would be. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs not reaching the Playoff for the third time in four years, whether as the SEC champion or as one of the seven at-large selections. Georgia has a tough schedule, traveling to Alabama in Week 4, to Texas in mid-October and to Ole Miss in November, but any SEC contender with two losses is still likely to make the field. That fact may one day take some of the shine off of these high-profile nonconference regular season tests, but that’s the price being paid to ensure more universal championship access in an expanded Playoff. And if this Georgia team gets matched up with another ACC team, a Big 12 team or a Group of 5 team in December’s early rounds, the talent disparity could lead to ugly final margins like we saw on Saturday.
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Clemson, meanwhile, exhibited all the same offensive problems it did a year ago. Georgia may be the best team in the country, but the Tigers again don’t look like a national championship contender based on Saturday’s effort. Still, the 12-team format means no Power 4 conference team’s season is done after Week 1. All Clemson has to do is win the ACC to guarantee itself a spot. And that still seems doable because…
2. Miami looks fantastic, but the rest of the ACC does not.
While the ACC league office battles Florida State and Clemson in court amid the two members’ ongoing efforts to break free from the conference’s grant of rights agreement, it would’ve behooved the ACC to get off to a strong start on the field and keep the realignment noise in the background. The league entered the season with no shortage of optimism thanks to seven teams in the AP poll’s top 30 (three of which landed just outside the Top 25).
Instead, it’s been a rough first week for what was perceived to be the top of the league. Defending champion and preseason favorite Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in Ireland in Week 0, Clemson got shellacked by Georgia on Saturday, popular dark horse pick Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt, and preseason No. 24 NC State needed a fourth-quarter comeback to escape Western Carolina on Thursday.
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But then there’s Miami! The Hurricanes lived up to their offseason hype with a dominant 41-17 win at Florida. Transfer quarterback Cam Ward looked spectacular, as did Miami’s other transfer additions. That is getting what you paid for. It’s only one week, but Miami looked like the best team in the league by a wide margin. And with a schedule that avoids Clemson and draws Virginia Tech and Florida State at home, Miami will suddenly be a very popular pick to make the CFP.
The Hurricanes now have a 42 percent chance to make the Playoff and a 23 percent chance to win the ACC, per Austin Mock’s projections model, while Clemson and Florida State have each fallen to a 20 percent chance to make the CFP. Beyond Miami, the rest of the league will need to play much better if the conference wants to find a second CFP bid.
ACC title and Playoff odds (Sept. 1)
Find all CFP projections here
3. Penn State looks like a real contender.
When the CFP expanded to 12 teams, Penn State looked to be the biggest beneficiary: The Nittany Lions finished ranked in the top 12 six times since 2016 but never made the four-team CFP field.
That feeling is even stronger after Penn State’s dominant 34-12 win at West Virginia. The defense was its normal physical and stout self, but the offense was explosive, and dare I say exciting, after drawing meme-worthy ridicule for its unwillingness to attack vertically last year. The Nittany Lions had two completions of at least 50 yards on Saturday after having just five all of last season. Quarterback Drew Allar finished 11 of 17 passing for 216 yards and three touchdowns, plus another 44 yards on the ground. He looked composed and sharp on the road in a way he didn’t last year.
It’s early, but Penn State looked like a team that might just not make the CFP, but win a game or two. The Nittany Lions now have a 74 percent chance to make the CFP, per our model, up from 67 percent before Week 1.
4. Notre Dame has an inside path to the Playoff already.
As an independent, the Fighting Irish don’t have a conference championship to play for, and because the top four seeds in the expanded CFP go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, even a Notre Dame team ranked No. 1 at the end of the season would not get a first-round bye. Still, the additional at-large bids available in the expanded field greatly help the Irish’s chances of making the Playoff, and after a season-opening 23-13 win against Texas A&M in College Station, Notre Dame should already be heavily favored to qualify, with a 72 percent to make it, according to The Athletic’s model.
It’s very likely Notre Dame will be favored in every game left on its schedule: The toughest remaining games are probably at Georgia Tech, at home against Florida State and at USC to close the year. The Irish can probably afford to lose one of those and still make the CFP field at 11-1. Marcus Freeman’s team has Playoff expectations this year, and Saturday’s win was a massive step toward that goal. A consequential Week 1 win makes their margin for error that much wider.
5. The Group of 5 favorites escaped some scares, with big Power 4 tests ahead.
The new stakes for the Group of 5 were made clear immediately when Boise State, the preseason favorite for the CFP spot reserved for the G5’s highest-ranked conference champion, trailed Georgia Southern on the road in the fourth quarter. The Broncos rallied to win 56-45 on the back of 377 rushing yards between Ashton Jeanty and Sire Gaines, retaining their Mountain West front-runner status and juicing Jeanty’s draft stock. Next up is a trip to Oregon, which needed to hold on to survive an upset bid from FCS Idaho.
Sun Belt favorite Appalachian State led East Tennessee State by just seven points deep into the third quarter but eventually won 38-10. Next up for the Mountaineers: a trip to Clemson.
Meanwhile, defending Conference USA champion Liberty trailed FCS Campbell deep into the second quarter and only led by 10 points entering the fourth but eventually won 41-24. AAC favorite Memphis, for its part, had no trouble during a 40-0 win against FCS North Alabama. The Tigers travel to Florida State in two weeks. The strength of these teams’ and their conferences’ resumes will be under scrutiny all fall.
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(Photo: Jack Gorman / Getty Images)
Culture
Book Review: ‘Selling Opportunity,’ by Mary Lisa Gavenas
SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay, by Mary Lisa Gavenas
Mary Kay, the cosmetics company whose multilevel marketing included sales parties and whose biggest earners were awarded pink Cadillacs, was really in the business of selling second chances. Or, at least, that’s what Mary Lisa Gavenas argues in “Selling Opportunity,” a dual biography of the brand and the woman behind it.
Mary Kathlyn Wagner, who would become Mary Kay Ash, “the most famous saleswoman in the world” and “maybe the most famous ever,” in Gavenas’s extravagant words, was born in 1918 to a poor family and raised mostly in Houston. Although a good student, she eloped at 16 with a slightly older boy. The young couple had two babies in quick succession.
Mary Kay’s creation was a combination of timing and good luck. Door-to-door sales was a thriving industry — but, traditionally, a man’s world: Lugging heavy samples was not considered feminine, and entering the homes of strangers, unsafe. But things began to change during the Great Depression, Gavenas suggests, thanks to a convergence of factors — financial pressures and the rise of the aspirational prosperity gospel espoused by Dale Carnegie’s self-help manuals.
At the same time, female-run beauty lines like Annie Turnbo Malone’s Poro and Madam C.J. Walker’s were finding great success in Black communities. And, coincidentally or otherwise, the California Perfume Company changed its name to Avon Products in 1939.
Ash began by selling books door to door, moving on to Stanley Home Products in the 1940s. She was talented, but direct sales was a rough gig. Every party to show off wares was supposed to beget two more bookings; these led to sales that resulted in new recruits. But there was no real security or stability: no salary, no medical benefits, no vacations. “Stop selling and you would end up right back where you started. Or worse,” the author writes.
Gavenas, a onetime beauty editor who wrote “Color Stories,” takes her time unspooling Mary Kay’s tale, with a great deal of evident research. We learn about direct sales, women’s rights and Texas history.
But, be warned: Readers must really enjoy both this woman and this world to take pleasure in “Selling Opportunity.” Mary Kay the person keeps marrying, getting divorced or widowed and working her way through various sales jobs (it’s hard to keep track of the myriad companies and last names). Gavenas seems to leave no detail out. Thus, the 1963 founding of the eponymous beauty company doesn’t come until almost 200 pages in.
Beauty by Mary Kay included a Cleansing Cream, a Magic Masque and a Nite Cream (which containined ammoniated mercury, later banned by the F.D.A.). The full line of products — which was how Mary Kay strongly encouraged customers to buy them — ran to a steep $175 in today’s money. (To fail to acquire the whole set, Ash said, was “like giving you my recipe for chocolate cake but leaving out an important ingredient.”)
Potential clients attended gatherings at acquaintances’ homes — no undignified doorbell-ringing here — where they received a mini facial, then an application of cosmetics like foundation, lip color and cream rouge — and a wig. The company made $198,514 in sales its first year.
Although Ash may have seemed a pioneer, in many ways Mary Kay was a traditionalist company, whose philosophy was “God first, family second, career third.” Saleswomen, official literature dictated, were working to provide themselves with treats rather than necessities so as not to threaten their breadwinner husbands.
And yet, they were also encouraged to sell sell sell. Golden Goblet pendants were awarded for major orders. After the company started using custom pink Peterbilt trucks for shipping, it began commissioning those Cadillacs for top consultants. (Mary Kay preferred gifts to cash bonuses, lest women save the money to spend on practical things rather than the licensed frivolities.) The Cadillacs, always driven on company leases, would become industry legend and part of American pop culture lore. “Never to be run-down, repainted or resold, the cars would double as shining pink advertisements for her selling opportunity,” Gavenas writes.
The woman herself was iconic, too. While Ash was a product of the Depression, she was also undeniably over-the-top. She wore white suits with leopard trim, lived in a custom Frank L. Meier house and brought her poodle to the office.
Mary Kay went public in 1968, making her the first woman to chair a company on the New York Stock Exchange. By the 1990s, the Mary Kay headquarters near Dallas was almost 600,000 square feet. They commissioned a hagiographic company biopic; there was a Mary Kay consultant Barbie; they were making $1 billion in wholesale. When she died, in 2001, Ash was worth $98 million.
And yet, Gavenas cites that at the company’s height, in 1992, sales reps made on average just $2,400 per year.
Instead of so much time in the pink fantasia of Mary Kay, it would have been nice for a few detours showing how infrequently the opportunities the company sold were truly realized.
SELLING OPPORTUNITY: The Story of Mary Kay | By Mary Lisa Gavenas | Viking | 435 pp. | $35
Culture
Historical Fiction Books That Illustrate the Bonds Between Mother and Child
We often think of the past as if it were another world — and in some ways, it is. The politics, religion and social customs of other eras can be vastly different from our own. But one thing historians and historical fiction writers alike often notice is the constancy of human emotion. The righteous anger of a customer complaining about a Mesopotamian copper merchant in 1750 B.C. feels familiar. Tributes to beloved household pets from ancient Romans and Egyptians make us smile. And we are captivated by stories of love, betrayal and sacrifice from Homer to Shakespeare and beyond.
In literature, letters, tablets and even on coins, we find overwhelming evidence that people in the past felt the same emotions we do. Love, hate, fear, grief, joy: These feelings were as much a part of their lives as they are of our own. And they resonate especially acutely in the bond between mother and child. Here are eight historical novels that explore the meaning of motherhood across the centuries.
Culture
How ‘The Sheep Detectives’ Brought its Ovine Sleuths to Life
Sometime in the 2000s, the producer Lindsay Doran asked her doctor for a book recommendation. “I’m reading that book everybody’s reading,” the doctor replied. “You know, the one about the shepherd who’s murdered and the sheep solve the crime.”
Doran had not heard of the book, “Three Bags Full,” a best-selling novel by a German graduate student (“No one’s reading it,” she recalls responding, inaccurately), but she was struck by what sounded like an irresistible elevator pitch. “Everything came together for me in that one sentence,” she said. “The fact that it was sheep rather than some other animal felt so resonant.”
Doran spent years trying to extricate the book from a complicated rights situation, and years more turning it into a movie. The result, opening Friday, is “The Sheep Detectives,” which features Nicholas Braun and Emma Thompson as humans, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Patrick Stewart and others giving voice to C.G.I. sheep stirred from their customary ruminations by the death of their shepherd, George (Hugh Jackman).
The film, rated PG, is an Agatha Christie-lite mystery with eccentric suspects, a comically bumbling cop (Braun) and a passel of ovine investigators. It’s also a coming-of-age story about growing up and losing your innocence that might have a “Bambi”-like resonance for children. The movie’s sheep have a way of erasing unpleasant things from their minds — they believe, for instance, that instead of dying, they just turn into clouds — but learn that death is an inextricable part of life.
“In some ways, the most important character is Mopple, the sheep played by Chris O’Dowd,” the screenwriter, Craig Mazin, said in a video interview. “He has a defect — he does not know how to forget — and he’s been carrying his memories all alone.”
“Three Bags Full” is an adult novel that includes grown-up themes like drugs and suicide. In adapting it for a younger audience, Mazin toned down its darker elements, changed its ending, and — for help in writing about death — consulted a book by Fred Rogers, TV’s Mister Rogers, about how to talk to children about difficult subjects.
The journey from book to film has been long and circuitous. “Three Bags Full” was written by Leonie Swann, then a 20-something German doctoral student studying English literature. Distracting herself from her unwritten dissertation, on the topic of “the animal point of view in fiction,” she began a short story “playing around with the idea of sheep detectives,” she said. “And I realized it was more like a novel, and it wasn’t the worst novel I’d ever seen.”
Why sheep? “I wasn’t someone who was thinking about sheep all the time,” Swann, who lives in the English countryside and has a dog named Ezra Hound, said in a video interview. Yet they have always hovered on the periphery of her life.
There was a friendly sheep that she used to see on her way to school. There was an irate ram that once chased her through the streets of a Bavarian village. And there were thousands and thousands of sheep in the fields of Ireland, where she lived for a time. “There were so many of them, and you could tell there was a lot of personality behind them,” she said.
A book in which sheep are stirred to action had to be a mystery, she said, to motivate the main characters. “In a lot of other stories, you would have trouble making a sheep realize there’s a story there,” she said. “They would just keep grazing. But murder is an existential problem that speaks to sheep as well as humans.”
Swann (the name is a pseudonym; she has never publicly disclosed her real name) found a literary agent, Astrid Poppenhusen, who brought her manuscript to market. Published in 2005, the book was translated into 30 languages and ended up spending three and a half years on German best-seller lists. (The German title is “Glennkill,” after the village in which it takes place.) Other novels followed, including a sheep-centric sequel, “Big Bad Wool,” but Swann never finished her dissertation.
Doran, the producer, read the book — now published in the United States by Soho Press, along with four other Swann novels — soon after hearing about it. She was determined to make it into a movie. Whenever she told anyone about the idea, she said, she had them at “sheep.”
The director, Kyle Balda (whose credits include “Minions”), was so excited when he first read the script, in 2022, that “I immediately drove out to a sheep farm” near his house in Oregon, he said in a video interview. “Very instantly I could see the behavior of the sheep, their different personalities. I learned very quickly that there are more varieties of sheep than dogs.”
How to make the sheep look realistic, and how to strike the proper balance between their inherent sheep-iness and their human-esque emotions were important questions the filmmakers grappled with.
It was essential that “the sheep in this world are sheep” rather than humans in sheep’s clothing, Balda said. “It’s not the kind of story where they are partnered with humans and talking to each other.”
That means that like real sheep, the movie sheep have short attention spans. They’re afraid to cross the road. “They don’t drive cars; they don’t wear pants; they’re not joke characters saying things like, ‘This grass would taste better with a little ranch dressing,’” Doran said.
And whenever they speak, their words register to humans as bleating, the way the adult speech in “Peanuts” cartoons sounds like trombone-y gibberish to Charlie Brown and his friends.
Lily, the leader of the flock, is played by Julia Louis-Dreyfus. It is not her first time voicing an animal in a movie: She has played, among other creatures, an ant in “A Bug’s Life” and a horse in “Animal Farm.” “When I read the script, I thought, ‘Wow, this is so weird,’” she said in a video interview. “It’s not derivative of anything else.”
Lily is unquestionably not a person; among other things, like a real sheep, she has a relatively immobile face set off by lively ears. “But her journey is a human journey where she realizes certain things about life she didn’t understand,” Louis-Dreyfus said. “There’s also the question of being a leader, and how to do that when you’re questioning your own point of view.”
Nicholas Braun took easily to the role of Officer Tim, the inept constable charged with solving the shepherd’s murder.
“The part was a little Greg-adjacent in the beginning, and I don’t really want to play too many Gregs,” Braun said via video, referring to Cousin Greg, his hapless punching bag of a character in the TV drama “Succession.”
“I’m post-Greg,” he said.
It takes Officer Tim some time to notice that the neighborhood sheep might be actively helping him tackle the case. But Braun said that unlike Greg, who is stuck in perpetual ineptitude, Tim gets to grow into a braver and more assertive person, a take-charge romantic hero — much the way the sheep are forced into action from their default position of “just forgetting about it and moving on and going back to eating grass,” he said.
Braun mused for a bit about other potential animal detectives — horses, say, or cows — but concluded that the sheep in the film were just right for the job. He predicted that the movie would change people’s perception of sheep, much the way “Toy Story” made them “look at their toys, or their kids’ toys, differently.”
“I don’t think people are going to be eating as much lamb after this,” he said.,
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