Culture
Five things we learned about the College Football Playoff race in Week 1
The first full Saturday of the college football season is in the books, and the College Football Playoff race is already top of mind.
Yes, it’s only one week of games. Yes, we always overreact to Week 1. Yes, there’s a ton of football still to be played. But it’s impossible to ignore the new 12-team CFP because every Football Bowl Subdivision team enters the season with a chance to make the field now. And even one week of action was enough to inform some takeaways that will impact the CFP race the rest of the way.
Here are five Playoff-adjacent lessons from Week 1.
1. Brace yourself for some blowouts in December.
Lopsided results were a frequent concern in the 10 years of the four-team CFP. Whether in the semifinals (Alabama vs. everyone) or the national championship game (Georgia 65, TCU 7), several Playoff matchups turned into blowouts because the top couple of teams in the sport were so much better than everyone else. Georgia and Clemson’s neutral-site opener in Atlanta doubled as a test for a 12-team era, as the No. 1 ranked SEC favorite took on one of the top teams in the ACC, ranked No. 14.
The result: a 34-3 beatdown in which the Bulldogs outscored the Tigers by 25 in the second half. Georgia looks as good as everyone thought it would be. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs not reaching the Playoff for the third time in four years, whether as the SEC champion or as one of the seven at-large selections. Georgia has a tough schedule, traveling to Alabama in Week 4, to Texas in mid-October and to Ole Miss in November, but any SEC contender with two losses is still likely to make the field. That fact may one day take some of the shine off of these high-profile nonconference regular season tests, but that’s the price being paid to ensure more universal championship access in an expanded Playoff. And if this Georgia team gets matched up with another ACC team, a Big 12 team or a Group of 5 team in December’s early rounds, the talent disparity could lead to ugly final margins like we saw on Saturday.
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Clemson, meanwhile, exhibited all the same offensive problems it did a year ago. Georgia may be the best team in the country, but the Tigers again don’t look like a national championship contender based on Saturday’s effort. Still, the 12-team format means no Power 4 conference team’s season is done after Week 1. All Clemson has to do is win the ACC to guarantee itself a spot. And that still seems doable because…
2. Miami looks fantastic, but the rest of the ACC does not.
While the ACC league office battles Florida State and Clemson in court amid the two members’ ongoing efforts to break free from the conference’s grant of rights agreement, it would’ve behooved the ACC to get off to a strong start on the field and keep the realignment noise in the background. The league entered the season with no shortage of optimism thanks to seven teams in the AP poll’s top 30 (three of which landed just outside the Top 25).
Instead, it’s been a rough first week for what was perceived to be the top of the league. Defending champion and preseason favorite Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in Ireland in Week 0, Clemson got shellacked by Georgia on Saturday, popular dark horse pick Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt, and preseason No. 24 NC State needed a fourth-quarter comeback to escape Western Carolina on Thursday.
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But then there’s Miami! The Hurricanes lived up to their offseason hype with a dominant 41-17 win at Florida. Transfer quarterback Cam Ward looked spectacular, as did Miami’s other transfer additions. That is getting what you paid for. It’s only one week, but Miami looked like the best team in the league by a wide margin. And with a schedule that avoids Clemson and draws Virginia Tech and Florida State at home, Miami will suddenly be a very popular pick to make the CFP.
The Hurricanes now have a 42 percent chance to make the Playoff and a 23 percent chance to win the ACC, per Austin Mock’s projections model, while Clemson and Florida State have each fallen to a 20 percent chance to make the CFP. Beyond Miami, the rest of the league will need to play much better if the conference wants to find a second CFP bid.
ACC title and Playoff odds (Sept. 1)
Find all CFP projections here
3. Penn State looks like a real contender.
When the CFP expanded to 12 teams, Penn State looked to be the biggest beneficiary: The Nittany Lions finished ranked in the top 12 six times since 2016 but never made the four-team CFP field.
That feeling is even stronger after Penn State’s dominant 34-12 win at West Virginia. The defense was its normal physical and stout self, but the offense was explosive, and dare I say exciting, after drawing meme-worthy ridicule for its unwillingness to attack vertically last year. The Nittany Lions had two completions of at least 50 yards on Saturday after having just five all of last season. Quarterback Drew Allar finished 11 of 17 passing for 216 yards and three touchdowns, plus another 44 yards on the ground. He looked composed and sharp on the road in a way he didn’t last year.
It’s early, but Penn State looked like a team that might just not make the CFP, but win a game or two. The Nittany Lions now have a 74 percent chance to make the CFP, per our model, up from 67 percent before Week 1.
4. Notre Dame has an inside path to the Playoff already.
As an independent, the Fighting Irish don’t have a conference championship to play for, and because the top four seeds in the expanded CFP go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, even a Notre Dame team ranked No. 1 at the end of the season would not get a first-round bye. Still, the additional at-large bids available in the expanded field greatly help the Irish’s chances of making the Playoff, and after a season-opening 23-13 win against Texas A&M in College Station, Notre Dame should already be heavily favored to qualify, with a 72 percent to make it, according to The Athletic’s model.
It’s very likely Notre Dame will be favored in every game left on its schedule: The toughest remaining games are probably at Georgia Tech, at home against Florida State and at USC to close the year. The Irish can probably afford to lose one of those and still make the CFP field at 11-1. Marcus Freeman’s team has Playoff expectations this year, and Saturday’s win was a massive step toward that goal. A consequential Week 1 win makes their margin for error that much wider.
5. The Group of 5 favorites escaped some scares, with big Power 4 tests ahead.
The new stakes for the Group of 5 were made clear immediately when Boise State, the preseason favorite for the CFP spot reserved for the G5’s highest-ranked conference champion, trailed Georgia Southern on the road in the fourth quarter. The Broncos rallied to win 56-45 on the back of 377 rushing yards between Ashton Jeanty and Sire Gaines, retaining their Mountain West front-runner status and juicing Jeanty’s draft stock. Next up is a trip to Oregon, which needed to hold on to survive an upset bid from FCS Idaho.
Sun Belt favorite Appalachian State led East Tennessee State by just seven points deep into the third quarter but eventually won 38-10. Next up for the Mountaineers: a trip to Clemson.
Meanwhile, defending Conference USA champion Liberty trailed FCS Campbell deep into the second quarter and only led by 10 points entering the fourth but eventually won 41-24. AAC favorite Memphis, for its part, had no trouble during a 40-0 win against FCS North Alabama. The Tigers travel to Florida State in two weeks. The strength of these teams’ and their conferences’ resumes will be under scrutiny all fall.
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(Photo: Jack Gorman / Getty Images)
Where do you turn when you need advice? A chatbot? A life coach? A wise and trusted friend?
How about a poet? Poets may not be famous for making the best life choices, but because they subject the mess of human existence to the discipline of language, they can be as helpful as any therapist or mentor.
Good poets know the rules and when to break them, which is something they can teach the rest of us.
To wit:
Giving advice is a peculiar literary undertaking. It flourishes in certain popular genres — graduation speeches, newspaper columns, country and western songs and poems like this one — but what, in these contexts, is it really for?
I’m thinking of situations when you don’t urgently need help but nonetheless enjoy reading answers to questions you may not have thought to ask. What interests you isn’t the content of the advice — you could get all the life hacks you want from A.I. — so much as the voice of the person dispensing it.
Wendy Cope is an English poet, born in 1945, who has been a fixture of her country’s literary scene since the 1980s. More recently, her short, buoyant poem “The Orange” has been widely memed online, bringing her to the attention of new readers beyond Britain.
Cope favors rhyme, meter, brisk jokes and tart aperçus. She addresses romance, friendship and the petty absurdities of modern life with disarming good humor. The last line of “The Orange” is “I love you. I’m glad I exist.” Somehow she makes it the opposite of cringe.
This isn’t the kind of poetry you would describe as “confessional.” And yet …
Question 1/7
Stop, if the car is going “clunk”
Or if the sun has made you blind.
Don’t answer e–mails when you’re drunk.
Tap a word above to fill in the highlighted blank.Want to learn this poem by heart? We’ll help.
Fill in the missing words below. You can always refer to the reading by A.O. Scott and full
text above.Let’s start with the first stanza.
A strong sense of place can deeply influence a story, and in some cases, the setting can even feel like a character itself. This week’s literary geography quiz highlights places where authors were born (or lived) that later became locations in their books. To play, just make your selection in the multiple-choice list and the correct answer will be revealed. At the end of the quiz, you’ll find links to the works if you’d like to do further reading.
AMERICA, U.S.A.: How Race Shadows the Nation’s Anniversaries, by Eddie S. Glaude Jr.
For those of us in the national memory-keeping business, anniversaries hold near-totemic power. Satisfyingly round units of time, ideally bearing fancy, Latin-derived names, serve as the overburdened pegs on which to hang think pieces and museum exhibits, revisionist documentaries and maudlin public ceremonies. The arbitrary nature of such occasions is precisely what gives them their charge, inviting us to set aside complacency and submit to a comprehensive check-in.
In his new book, “America, U.S.A.,” Eddie S. Glaude Jr. presents an intriguing variation on the genre, seeing the country’s 250th birthday as an anniversary of anniversaries: 50 years since the malaise-ridden, schlock-heavy Bicentennial. A century since the subdued Prohibition-era Sesquicentennial. A century and a half since telegraphed reports of George Armstrong Custer’s defeat by the Lakota and Cheyenne at Little Bighorn rudely interrupted the Gilded Age Republic’s 100th birthday party.
If an anniversary offers a snapshot of a moment, the core of Glaude’s book is an old-timey photo album, a collection of notable episodes from earlier national reckonings, long-ago glances in the mirror. An estimable scholar of Black history, politics and religion at Princeton — best known for “Begin Again,” his 2020 meditation on James Baldwin’s relevance for our times — Glaude focuses, as his subtitle puts it, on “how race shadows the nation’s anniversaries.”
Such celebrations, he contends, have never really been the moments for honest self-reflection they are often advertised to be. Instead, the nation usually shatters the mirror, refusing to accept what it prefers not to see. “American anniversaries are often moments to turn a blind eye to the evils of the past and the present,” Glaude writes, “to suppress the fact of America’s divided soul.”
It’s a clever concept, and, needless to say, perfectly timed. Last year, Glaude notes, the Trump administration executed a hostile takeover of the government’s studiously bipartisan 250th anniversary planning. It is now preparing a program that is certain to conceal more than it reveals about the country ostensibly being celebrated.
Glaude, in no mood for celebration, argues that such omissions and evasions also defined commemorations in the past. In 1875, Frederick Douglass predicted “one grand Centennial hosannah of peace and good will to all the white race of this country.” He was right: The nation reached 100 years old at a crucial moment in the post-Civil War fight over racial equality, with white Northerners ready to give up on Southern Reconstruction. The occasion would help the once-warring sections to reunite around a shared commitment to white supremacy. On May 10, 1876, at the opening of the Centennial Exposition in Philadelphia, the police tried to bar Douglass from the grandstand, until a white politician vouched for him.
The 150th anniversary came soon after a resurgent Ku Klux Klan successfully pushed for a restrictive immigration law aimed at keeping America a “Nordic” nation. At the lavishly funded, lightly attended celebrations in Philadelphia, Black veterans of World War I were excluded from marching in the opening parade. A writer with The Associated Negro Press wondered “what was in the breast of those black men who fought to make America safe for Democracy and on Monday stood on the sidelines, forgotten, as the Nordic strode by in all his vain pride.”
By 1976, when the nation marked its Bicentennial, the violence of the ’60s had destroyed any semblance of consensus. Vietnam and Watergate had eroded trust in the government. The commission initially tasked with organizing the anniversary was disbanded amid reports of corruption. Corporations filled the vacuum, Glaude explains, with “star-spangled whoopee cushions; patriotic toilet seats; Liberty hamburgers; red, white and blue beer cans.” The author, around 8 years old at the time, dimly remembers donning a pair of tricolor trousers.
A half-century later, Glaude is refreshingly honest about the depths of his despair. “I do not love America, and never have, especially now,” he writes in one of the more startling opening sentences I’ve read in some time. He dismisses this year’s Semiquincentennial as reaching back “to a storybook America that requires either the banishment of Black people from view or the reduction of our role in the country’s history, so as to affirm America’s ongoing quest to be a more perfect union.”
Undoubtedly true. But Trump doesn’t own the country, at least not yet, nor the 250th anniversary of one of the most radically liberatory and confusingly contradictory events in world history — an inspiration, as Glaude shows, even to critical observers of the American experiment, like Douglass. Far from the revanchist MAGA-palooza in Washington, I suspect this summer’s unasked-for invitation to national soul-searching may surprise us yet.
Despite his despair, Glaude concludes that “the past still offers resources for us to freedom-dream.” So, too, does this book.
AMERICA, U.S.A.: How Race Shadows the Nation’s Anniversaries | By Eddie S. Glaude Jr. | Crown | 270 pp. | $31
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