Culture
Dodgers vs. Mets 2024 NLCS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more
By Fabian Ardaya, Tim Britton, Will Sammon and Eno Sarris
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets both put away division rivals in the NLDS to keep their postseason hopes alive and reach the NLCS. The Dodgers overcame a 2-1 series deficit against the Padres, storming back to shut out San Diego in a decisive Game 5. The Mets took care of the Phillies in four, with Francisco Lindor slamming the door on Philadelphia to give New York its first playoff series win at Citi Field.
This is the fourth time these teams have squared off in the postseason, with the Mets prevailing in the 2015 NLDS and 2006 NLDS and the Dodgers taking the 1988 NLCS. This best-of-seven NLCS begins Sunday in L.A., with the winner advancing to the World Series to face the New York Yankees or the Cleveland Guardians.
Game times
Game 1: Mets at Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 13, 8:15 p.m. ET, Fox
Game 2: Mets at Dodgers, Monday, Oct. 14, 4:08 p.m. ET, Fox/FS1
Game 3: Dodgers at Mets, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 8:08 p.m. ET, FS1
Game 4: Dodgers at Mets, Thursday, Oct. 17, Time TBD, FS1
Game 5: Dodgers at Mets, Friday, Oct. 18, Time TBD, Fox/FS1 (if necessary)
Game 6: Mets at Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 20, Time TBD, Fox/FS1 (if necessary)
Game 7: Mets at Dodgers, Monday, Oct. 21, Time TBD, Fox/FS1 (if necessary)
Pitching matchups
The Dodgers’ staff should be deeper than the Mets, and probably also better. If Yoshinobu Yamamoto is going to sit 97 mph and look as sharp as he did in Game 5 of the Divisional Series, that gives the Dodgers an ace to throw against any other. Jack Flaherty is a good No. 2 and equal to any starter New York will throw out there. And if the Mets have a better third starter, the Dodgers’ bullpen depth should help them zero out that difference. The Dodgers had a whopping 15 relievers who featured above-average stuff in the regular season, and they’ve showcased that depth this October. Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Daniel Hudson and Michael Kopech have collectively hung a zero on the postseason. And if Vesia is injured, the Dodgers have other pitchers who can step forward.
But anything can happen in the playoffs. After all, Philadelphia probably had a better staff than the Mets, and yet it was the Phillies who imploded — they pitched to a 5.82 ERA overall in the NLDS while the Mets got 18 innings of four-run ball from the trio of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana. Those starters have been mixing it up well, and taking their inspiration from tragedy or whimsy. With Kodai Senga back in the fold — even with a couple of his pitches moving strangely and his velocity a little down — this might be a “just enough” kind of rotation.
It just feels like a high-wire act for New York — with all that below-average velocity from the starters, and a bullpen that somehow has an ERA around 4 despite a 12 percent walk rate and a below-average strikeout-minus-walk rate. No pitcher represents how shaky, yet successful this bullpen has been in the postseason better than the Mets’ closer. Edwin Díaz has blown a save, is sporting a postseason ERA over 8, and has five walks in 3 1/3 innings, but he also has seven strikeouts, a save and a win. Just enough from this staff will be four-ish innings from the starter, good bridge work from previous starters David Peterson and Tylor Megill, and a version of Díaz that somehow finds his command that’s been missing. Maybe a few days off will help, given his heavy usage.
The Dodgers just have fewer questions in the bullpen. That’s mostly what gives them the advantage in this pitching matchup. — Sarris
Why the Dodgers will win
They may be the most talented team left in the tournament along with its hottest bullpen. Mookie Betts’ bat came to life. The Dodgers’ lineup has shown depth and length, with Kiké Hernández once again emerging as a clutch October performer in their NLDS-clinching win. They still employ Shohei Ohtani.
And, believe it or not, the strength of their bullpen might be giving them enough pitching to make the rest of the pieces of the puzzle work. Dodgers pitchers combined to hold the Padres to 24 consecutive scoreless innings to end the series, the longest consecutive stretch in franchise postseason history. Yamamoto was sterling in the series clincher and could be back to start for the Dodgers as soon as Game 4 of the NLCS. Flaherty is lined up to pitch Game 1. And their bullpen could likely run back the bullpen game it successfully executed in Game 4 of the NLDS. — Ardaya
Why the Mets will win
Well, there’s this whole “Mets Magic” thing going on. You know, the fast-food mascot, the “playoff pumpkin” and the catchy pop song. If that’s not enough for your taste, the Mets proved long ago that they’re a pretty good baseball team.
The Mets’ lineup has displayed the kind of versatility that tends to come in handy in October. They can string together hits for a big inning late in games and they also have the ability to overwhelm pitching staffs with their power. The Mets’ defense is as crisp as it has been all year. And their starting rotation continues to surprisingly impress — more often than not in the playoffs, a Mets starter has thrown at least six innings. As long as the rotation continues to pitch deep into games, their bullpen becomes less concerning.
The Mets do not have a dominant bridge to Díaz, who has also looked shaky. But the return of Senga allows the Mets to be creative elsewhere. He is still limited but should be able to give the Mets more than the two innings he threw in Game 1 against the Phillies. Senga’s presence allows the Mets to use Megill, a righty, and Peterson, a lefty, out of the bullpen in either bulk or leverage roles. — Britton and Sammon
Staff picks
| TEAM | PERCENT OF VOTE |
|---|---|
|
71.4% |
|
|
28.6% |
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His status will be as much of a question throughout the NLCS as it was during the NLDS. Freeman took 14 at-bats and started four of the five games in the series, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury that would normally knock him out for a month. Freeman said during Friday’s celebration he expects to be in the lineup for Game 1 of the NLCS, but even that likely would come with some compromise in terms of his mobility and ability to potentially play in consecutive games. — Ardaya
But seriously, who else could it be? Lindor has been the central figure of the Mets’ entire turnaround, sparking it with his offensive production in late May and pushing it further and further with his all-around brilliance late in the season. His heroics to clinch a playoff berth and now lift the Mets into the NLCS have cemented this as probably the best individual season by a position player in team history. He can win a game in so many ways, and he’s shown it throughout the season. — Britton and Sammon
Tale of the Tape
Who has the edge?
| Teams | R/G | SP ERA | RP ERA | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 (7th) |
3.91 (12th) |
4.03 (17th) |
108 (7th) |
|
|
5.20 (2nd) |
4.23 (19th) |
3.53 (4th) |
121 (1st) |
Dodgers top performers
| PLAYER | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lineup |
DH |
54 HR, 59 SB, .646 SLG, 190 OPS+ |
9.2 |
|
|
Rotation |
RHP |
3.17 ERA, 127 ERA+, 194 Ks |
3.1 |
|
|
Bullpen |
RHP |
1.93 ERA, 201 ERA+, 0.943 WHIP |
1.4 |
|
|
Fielding |
CF/UTIL |
3 OAA, 1 DRS |
1.8 (dWAR) |
Mets top performers
| PLAYER | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lineup |
SS |
33 HR, 39 2B, 29 SB, 138 OPS+ |
7 |
|
|
Rotation |
LHP |
3.47 ERA, 184 Ks, 114 ERA+ |
3 |
|
|
Bullpen |
RHP |
3.52 ERA, 20 Saves, 14.1 K/9 |
0.5 |
|
|
Fielding |
C |
.993 Fielding Percentage, 88th percentile framing |
8.9 (dWAR) |
Dodgers must-reads
Kiké Hernández delivers again as Dodgers advance: ‘He’s not afraid of the moment’
Dave Roberts knows that for the Dodgers, it’s title or bust: ‘It’s expected’
Freddie Freeman begins next chapter after his most arduous season
Why Dodgers’ defense of the NL West is ‘a tick sweeter’
Shohei Ohtani delivers with ridiculous performance: ‘Makes you speechless’
Mets must-reads
Francisco Lindor’s swing of a lifetime lifts the Mets into the NLCS
Mets’ longest-tenured players celebrate breakthrough: ‘A dream come true’
Pete Alonso delivers heroic homer after teammate calls the shot
In an instant classic, Mets clinch playoff berth with win over Braves
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(Top image: Pete Alonso: Rob Tringali / MLB Photos via Getty Images; Mookie Betts: Harry How / Getty Images)
A famous poet once observed that it is difficult to get the news from poems. The weather is a different story. April showers, summer sunshine and — maybe especially — the chill of winter provide an endless supply of moods and metaphors. Poets like to practice a double meteorology, looking out at the water and up at the sky for evidence of interior conditions of feeling.
The inner and outer forecasts don’t always match up. This short poem by Louise Glück starts out cold and stays that way for most of its 11 lines.
And then it bursts into flame.
“Early December in Croton-on-Hudson” comes from Glück’s debut collection, “Firstborn,” which was published in 1968. She wrote the poems in it between the ages of 18 and 23, but they bear many of the hallmarks of her mature style, including an approach to personal matters — sex, love, illness, family life — that is at once uncompromising and elusive. She doesn’t flinch. She also doesn’t explain.
Here, for example, Glück assembles fragments of experience that imply — but also obscure — a larger narrative. It’s almost as if a short story, or even a novel, had been smashed like a glass Christmas ornament, leaving the reader to infer the sphere from the shards.
We know there was a couple with a flat tire, and that a year later at least one of them still has feelings for the other. It’s hard not to wonder if they’re still together, or where they were going with those Christmas presents.
To some extent, those questions can be addressed with the help of biographical clues. The version of “Early December in Croton-on-Hudson” that appeared in The Atlantic in 1967 was dedicated to Charles Hertz, a Columbia University graduate student who was Glück’s first husband. They divorced a few years later. Glück, who died in 2023, was never shy about putting her life into her work.
But the poem we are reading now is not just the record of a passion that has long since cooled. More than 50 years after “Firstborn,” on the occasion of receiving the Nobel Prize for literature, Glück celebrated the “intimate, seductive, often furtive or clandestine” relations between poets and their readers. Recalling her childhood discovery of William Blake and Emily Dickinson, she declared her lifelong ardor for “poems to which the listener or reader makes an essential contribution, as recipient of a confidence or an outcry, sometimes as co-conspirator.”
That’s the kind of poem she wrote.
“Confidence” can have two meanings, both of which apply to “Early December in Croton-on-Hudson.” Reading it, you are privy to a secret, something meant for your ears only. You are also in the presence of an assertive, self-possessed voice.
Where there is power, there’s also risk. To give voice to desire — to whisper or cry “I want you” — is to issue a challenge and admit vulnerability. It’s a declaration of conquest and a promise of surrender.
What happens next? That’s up to you.
Cold weather can serve as a plot point or emphasize the mood of a scene, and this week’s literary geography quiz highlights the locations of recent novels that work winter conditions right into the story. Even if you aren’t familiar with the book, the questions offer an additional hint about the setting. To play, just make your selection in the multiple-choice list and the correct answer will be revealed. At the end of the quiz, you’ll find links to the books if you’d like to do further reading.
When a writer is praised for having a sense of place, it usually means one specific place — a postage stamp of familiar ground rendered in loving, knowing detail. But Kiran Desai, in her latest novel, “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny,” has a sense of places.
This 670-page book, about the star-crossed lovers of the title and several dozen of their friends, relatives, exes and servants (there’s a chart in the front to help you keep track), does anything but stay put. If “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny” were an old-fashioned steamer trunk, it would be papered with shipping labels: from Allahabad (now known as Prayagraj), Goa and Delhi; from Queens, Kansas and Vermont; from Mexico City and, perhaps most delightfully, from Venice.
There, in Marco Polo’s hometown, the titular travelers alight for two chapters, enduring one of several crises in their passionate, complicated, on-again, off-again relationship. One of Venice’s nicknames is La Serenissima — “the most serene” — but in Desai’s hands it’s the opposite: a gloriously hectic backdrop for Sonia and Sunny’s romantic confusion.
Their first impressions fill a nearly page-long paragraph. Here’s how it begins.
Sonia is a (struggling) fiction writer. Sunny is a (struggling) journalist. It’s notable that, of the two of them, it is she who is better able to perceive the immediate reality of things, while he tends to read facts through screens of theory and ideology, finding sociological meaning in everyday occurrences. He isn’t exactly wrong, and Desai is hardly oblivious to the larger narratives that shape the fates of Sunny, Sonia and their families — including the economic and political changes affecting young Indians of their generation.
But “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny” is about more than that. It’s a defense of the very idea of more, and thus a rebuke to the austerity that defines so much recent literary fiction. Many of Desai’s peers favor careful, restricted third-person narration, or else a measured, low-affect “I.” The bookstores are full of skinny novels about the emotional and psychological thinness of contemporary life. This book is an antidote: thick, sloppy, fleshy, all over the place.
It also takes exception to the postmodern dogma that we only know reality through representations of it, through pre-existing concepts of the kind to which intellectuals like Sunny are attached. The point of fiction is to assert that the world is true, and to remind us that it is vast, strange and astonishing.
See the full list of the 10 Best Books of 2025 here.
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