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Dodgers vs. Mets 2024 NLCS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

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Dodgers vs. Mets 2024 NLCS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

By Fabian Ardaya, Tim Britton, Will Sammon and Eno Sarris

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets both put away division rivals in the NLDS to keep their postseason hopes alive and reach the NLCS. The Dodgers overcame a 2-1 series deficit against the Padres, storming back to shut out San Diego in a decisive Game 5. The Mets took care of the Phillies in four, with Francisco Lindor slamming the door on Philadelphia to give New York its first playoff series win at Citi Field.

This is the fourth time these teams have squared off in the postseason, with the Mets prevailing in the 2015 NLDS and 2006 NLDS and the Dodgers taking the 1988 NLCS. This best-of-seven NLCS begins Sunday in L.A., with the winner advancing to the World Series to face the New York Yankees or the Cleveland Guardians.


Game times

Game 1: Mets at Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 13, 8:15 p.m. ET, Fox

Game 2: Mets at Dodgers, Monday, Oct. 14, 4:08 p.m. ET, Fox/FS1

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Game 3: Dodgers at Mets, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 8:08 p.m. ET, FS1

Game 4: Dodgers at Mets, Thursday, Oct. 17, Time TBD, FS1

Game 5: Dodgers at Mets, Friday, Oct. 18, Time TBD, Fox/FS1 (if necessary)

Game 6: Mets at Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 20, Time TBD, Fox/FS1 (if necessary)

Game 7: Mets at Dodgers, Monday, Oct. 21, Time TBD, Fox/FS1 (if necessary)

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Pitching matchups

The Dodgers’ staff should be deeper than the Mets, and probably also better. If Yoshinobu Yamamoto is going to sit 97 mph and look as sharp as he did in Game 5 of the Divisional Series, that gives the Dodgers an ace to throw against any other. Jack Flaherty is a good No. 2 and equal to any starter New York will throw out there. And if the Mets have a better third starter, the Dodgers’ bullpen depth should help them zero out that difference. The Dodgers had a whopping 15 relievers who featured above-average stuff in the regular season, and they’ve showcased that depth this October. Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Daniel Hudson and Michael Kopech have collectively hung a zero on the postseason. And if Vesia is injured, the Dodgers have other pitchers who can step forward.

But anything can happen in the playoffs. After all, Philadelphia probably had a better staff than the Mets, and yet it was the Phillies who imploded — they pitched to a 5.82 ERA overall in the NLDS while the Mets got 18 innings of four-run ball from the trio of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana. Those starters have been mixing it up well, and taking their inspiration from tragedy or whimsy. With Kodai Senga back in the fold — even with a couple of his pitches moving strangely and his velocity a little down — this might be a “just enough” kind of rotation.

It just feels like a high-wire act for New York — with all that below-average velocity from the starters, and a bullpen that somehow has an ERA around 4 despite a 12 percent walk rate and a below-average strikeout-minus-walk rate. No pitcher represents how shaky, yet successful this bullpen has been in the postseason better than the Mets’ closer. Edwin Díaz has blown a save, is sporting a postseason ERA over 8, and has five walks in 3 1/3 innings, but he also has seven strikeouts, a save and a win. Just enough from this staff will be four-ish innings from the starter, good bridge work from previous starters David Peterson and Tylor Megill, and a version of Díaz that somehow finds his command that’s been missing. Maybe a few days off will help, given his heavy usage.

The Dodgers just have fewer questions in the bullpen. That’s mostly what gives them the advantage in this pitching matchup. — Sarris


Why the Dodgers will win

They may be the most talented team left in the tournament along with its hottest bullpen. Mookie Betts’ bat came to life. The Dodgers’ lineup has shown depth and length, with Kiké Hernández once again emerging as a clutch October performer in their NLDS-clinching win. They still employ Shohei Ohtani.

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And, believe it or not, the strength of their bullpen might be giving them enough pitching to make the rest of the pieces of the puzzle work. Dodgers pitchers combined to hold the Padres to 24 consecutive scoreless innings to end the series, the longest consecutive stretch in franchise postseason history. Yamamoto was sterling in the series clincher and could be back to start for the Dodgers as soon as Game 4 of the NLCS. Flaherty is lined up to pitch Game 1. And their bullpen could likely run back the bullpen game it successfully executed in Game 4 of the NLDS. — Ardaya

Why the Mets will win

Well, there’s this whole “Mets Magic” thing going on. You know, the fast-food mascot, the “playoff pumpkin” and the catchy pop song. If that’s not enough for your taste, the Mets proved long ago that they’re a pretty good baseball team.

The Mets’ lineup has displayed the kind of versatility that tends to come in handy in October. They can string together hits for a big inning late in games and they also have the ability to overwhelm pitching staffs with their power. The Mets’ defense is as crisp as it has been all year. And their starting rotation continues to surprisingly impress — more often than not in the playoffs, a Mets starter has thrown at least six innings. As long as the rotation continues to pitch deep into games, their bullpen becomes less concerning.

The Mets do not have a dominant bridge to Díaz, who has also looked shaky. But the return of Senga allows the Mets to be creative elsewhere. He is still limited but should be able to give the Mets more than the two innings he threw in Game 1 against the Phillies. Senga’s presence allows the Mets to use Megill, a righty, and Peterson, a lefty, out of the bullpen in either bulk or leverage roles. — Britton and Sammon

Staff picks

TEAM PERCENT OF VOTE

71.4%

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28.6%

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National League Championship Series predictions: Our experts make their picks


His status will be as much of a question throughout the NLCS as it was during the NLDS. Freeman took 14 at-bats and started four of the five games in the series, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury that would normally knock him out for a month. Freeman said during Friday’s celebration he expects to be in the lineup for Game 1 of the NLCS, but even that likely would come with some compromise in terms of his mobility and ability to potentially play in consecutive games. — Ardaya

But seriously, who else could it be? Lindor has been the central figure of the Mets’ entire turnaround, sparking it with his offensive production in late May and pushing it further and further with his all-around brilliance late in the season. His heroics to clinch a playoff berth and now lift the Mets into the NLCS have cemented this as probably the best individual season by a position player in team history. He can win a game in so many ways, and he’s shown it throughout the season. — Britton and Sammon

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Tale of the Tape

Who has the edge?

Teams R/G SP ERA RP ERA OPS+

4.74 (7th)

3.91 (12th)

4.03 (17th)

108 (7th)

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5.20 (2nd)

4.23 (19th)

3.53 (4th)

121 (1st)

Dodgers top performers

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PLAYER POS KEY STATISTICS WAR

Lineup

DH

54 HR, 59 SB, .646 SLG, 190 OPS+

9.2

Rotation

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RHP

3.17 ERA, 127 ERA+, 194 Ks

3.1

Bullpen

RHP

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1.93 ERA, 201 ERA+, 0.943 WHIP

1.4

Fielding

CF/UTIL

3 OAA, 1 DRS

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1.8 (dWAR)

Mets top performers

PLAYER POS KEY STATISTICS WAR

Lineup

SS

33 HR, 39 2B, 29 SB, 138 OPS+

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7

Rotation

LHP

3.47 ERA, 184 Ks, 114 ERA+

3

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Bullpen

RHP

3.52 ERA, 20 Saves, 14.1 K/9

0.5

Fielding

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C

.993 Fielding Percentage, 88th percentile framing

8.9 (dWAR)


Dodgers must-reads

Kiké Hernández delivers again as Dodgers advance: ‘He’s not afraid of the moment’

Dave Roberts knows that for the Dodgers, it’s title or bust: ‘It’s expected’

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Freddie Freeman begins next chapter after his most arduous season

Why Dodgers’ defense of the NL West is ‘a tick sweeter’

Shohei Ohtani delivers with ridiculous performance: ‘Makes you speechless’

Mets must-reads

Francisco Lindor’s swing of a lifetime lifts the Mets into the NLCS

Mets’ longest-tenured players celebrate breakthrough: ‘A dream come true’

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Pete Alonso delivers heroic homer after teammate calls the shot

In an instant classic, Mets clinch playoff berth with win over Braves

Inside the Mets’ revival: Grimace, OMG and a turnaround no one saw coming

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Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

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What we learned in the NLDS and ALDS: Bullpens, large sluggers, Steven Kwan is back

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(Top image: Pete Alonso: Rob Tringali / MLB Photos via Getty Images; Mookie Betts: Harry How / Getty Images)

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Try This Quiz on Oscar-Winning Adaptations of Popular Books

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Try This Quiz on Oscar-Winning Adaptations of Popular Books

Welcome to Great Adaptations, the Book Review’s regular multiple-choice quiz about works that have gone on to find new life as movies, television shows, theatrical productions — or even books. With the Academy Award nominations announced last week, this week’s challenge celebrates past Oscar-winning films that were based on books. Just tap or click your answers to the five questions below. And scroll down after you finish the last question for links to the books and their filmed versions.

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What Kind of Lover Are You? This William Blake Poem Might Have the Answer.

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What Kind of Lover Are You? This William Blake Poem Might Have the Answer.

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Not every poem about love is a love poem. This one, from William Blake’s “Songs of Innocence and of Experience,” first published in 1794, is more analytical than romantic. Instead of roses and violets, it offers us dirt and rocks.

William Blake (1757-1827), obscure in his own time and a hero to later generations of poets and spiritual seekers, made his living as an engraver and illustrator. He conceived and executed many of his poetic projects as works of visual as well as literary art, etching his verses and images onto copper plates and printing them in vivid color — a style designed to blur the boundary between word and picture.

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From a 1795 copy of William Blake’s “Songs of Innocence and of Experience.”

The Trustees of the British Museum

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“The Clod & the Pebble” is set in a rustic tableau populated by wild and domesticated animals. In the print, we can’t quite see the main characters, who are presumably somewhere beneath the hooves and the ripples. But the cows and sheep, the frogs and the duck, are nonetheless connected to the poem’s meaning.

The two sections of “Songs of Innocence and of Experience” are meant to illustrate “the contrary states of the human soul” — the purity and wonder associated with early childhood and the harder knowledge that inevitably follows.

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“The Clod & the Pebble” recapitulates this fall from sweetness into disillusionment, and the plate suggests it in contrasting ways. The wild animals down below symbolize a natural condition of innocence, while the livestock above live in confinement, bound to another’s use. At the same time, though, the cows and sheep are peaceful ruminants, while the frogs and the duck are predators.

In the poem, the Clod is an avatar of innocence. As it happens, this is a recurring character in the Blakean poetic universe. In “The Book of Thel,” a fantastical meditation composed a few years before the publication of “Songs of Innocence and of Experience,” the Clod appears as a maternal figure selflessly nursing a baby worm:

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The Clod of Clay heard the Worms voice, & raisd her pitying head; 

She bowd over the weeping infant, and her life exhald 

In milky fondness 

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“We live not for ourselves,” she tells the poem’s heroine, a young girl named Thel. But in Blake’s system self-sacrifice can never be the last word. There is no innocence without the fall into experience, and no experience without the memory of innocence. Giving gives way to wanting.

Want to learn this poem by heart? We’ll help.

Get to know the poem better by filling in the missing words below.

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Question 1/6

First, the Clod’s perspective.

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Love seeketh not Itself to please, 

Nor for itself hath any care; 

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Tap a word above to fill in the highlighted blank.

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Try This Quiz on Myths and Stories That Inspired Recent Books

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Welcome to Lit Trivia, the Book Review’s regular quiz about books, authors and literary culture. This week’s challenge tests your memory of 21st-century books that were inspired by ancient myths, legends and folk tales. In the five multiple-choice questions below, tap or click on the answer you think is correct. After the last question, you’ll find links to the books if you’d like to do further reading.

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