Culture
Court Vision: 11 things to know about 2024-25 NCAA men’s college basketball season before tipoff
It’s a long wait from the first weekend in April until the first week of November, but at last, the men’s college basketball season is upon us.
We’ve already shared The Athletic’s preseason conference rankings, full of stats and analysis. We’ve rolled out our preseason All-America teams and Top 25. And there’s plenty more to come. Consider this my first national column, which will regularly cover the week that was and preview the weekend that will be.
So, before the games actually tip off, let’s get you caught up on everything you need to know.
1. UConn’s quest for a three-peat is historic — but not impossible
Last season, Connecticut became just the third program in the modern era to win back-to-back national titles, joining Florida (2006 and 2007) and Duke (1991 and 1992).
But neither the Gators nor the Blue Devils were able to run things back a third time. Which means the only team that’s ever won three straight is still John Wooden’s UCLA dynasty, which won seven consecutive championships from 1967 to ’73 (and 10 over a 12-year span). But Dan Hurley wouldn’t have turned down the Los Angeles Lakers’ head-coaching job this summer if his team didn’t have a realistic shot at cutting down the nets (again) in 2025.
Beyond the difficulty of winning a single-elimination tournament three years running is that Hurley, 51, keeps losing his best players. After his first title, three starters left for the NBA. After UConn won it all again, Hurley lost four more starters. At least Hurley convinced redshirt junior Alex Karaban to come back … but now he needs the 6-foot-9 forward to go from highly efficient role player to a true All-American.
Karaban will get help from guard Aidan Mahaney (Saint Mary’s) and center Tarris Reed Jr. (Michigan), both top-50 transfers according to The Athletic’s list of best available players, and five-star wing Liam McNeeley was the No. 17 recruit in the nation. Hurley also needs his role players from the past two seasons to take the leap. There’s enough talent here to make another run. And if UConn does? It would cement Hurley not just as the best coach of the modern era, but one of the best the sport has ever seen.
2. The coaching carousel
Who knew that SMU firing Rob Lanier would be so consequential?
But that became the first domino in a wild offseason. SMU, ahead of its move to the ACC, quickly hired Andy Enfield away from USC, which paved the way for Eric Musselman to leave Arkansas for Los Angeles. The Razorbacks responded with a home run swing: luring Hall of Famer John Calipari away from his lifetime contract at Kentucky as his act appeared to be wearing thin in Lexington. (A blue-blood coaching change, for the fourth straight offseason.)
Kentucky settled on BYU coach Mark Pope — a captain on UK’s 1996 championship team — as Calipari’s successor, after its pursuit of Baylor coach Scott Drew came up short. BYU hired former Phoenix Suns assistant Kevin Young, who has seemingly unlocked the Cougars’ name, image and likeness vault.
POV: You are in section 224 during @CoachMarkPope‘s introduction during #BBM24. pic.twitter.com/Vchb6UQ1a5
— Kentucky Men’s Basketball (@KentuckyMBB) October 14, 2024
Those interconnected dominoes don’t even factor in Michigan winning the sweepstakes for Dusty May, who took Florida Atlantic to its lone Final Four. Louisville, which ended its disastrous two-year Kenny Payne experiment, pivoted to Charleston’s Pat Kelsey.
Tony Bennett’s recent abrupt retirement from Virginia, where he hung the program’s only national championship banner in 2019, left the ACC without a championship-winning coach for the first time since 1981-82. Ron Sanchez (former head coach at Charlotte) was named interim coach and will have every opportunity to win the full-time job. And lastly, tragically, South Florida coach Amir Abdur-Rahim — who led Kennesaw State to its first NCAA Tournament appearance and was a rising star — died last week at age 43 due to complications from a medical procedure. Assistant Ben Fletcher will be the interim.
3. Zach Edey is gone, but there’s still returning star power
Edey — the first two-time Wooden Award winner since Ralph Sampson in the 1980s — is gone to the NBA, but The Athletic’s preseason All-America teams include several accomplished players.
North Carolina guard RJ Davis is the only first-team All-American back from last season, but two second-team honorees also return: Alabama guard Mark Sears and Kansas center Hunter Dickinson. (Thank the extra COVID-19 year of eligibility for guys sticking in school long enough to become household names.) Karaban is the face of UConn’s bid for a three-peat, Arizona guard Caleb Love is two seasons removed from ending Mike Krzyzewski’s Hall of Fame career, and Purdue guard Braden Smith is set to step out of Edey’s enormous shadow.
That’s just a snippet of the talent back. But there’s also …
4. Cooper Flagg, the most hyped high school prospect since …?
Welcome to the year of Flagg. The 6-foot-9 Maine native was the top-ranked recruit in this year’s freshman class, and he’s long been the front-runner to go No. 1 in the 2025 NBA Draft. It’s not hyperbolic to call him the most-anticipated high school recruit since Anthony Davis at Kentucky in 2011-12. And the nine months “The Brow” was on campus turned out pretty well for the Wildcats, no? Duke and third-year coach Jon Scheyer are hoping Flagg leads the Blue Devils to similar national championship heights — and talent-starved NBA fans in Washington, Brooklyn and Detroit are watching just as eagerly.
Flagg’s hype train hit a new gear after his performance this summer at Team USA camp. Despite being the lone college representative on the Select Team — which featured rising NBAers like Brandon Miller and Jalen Suggs — Flagg was, at times, the best player on the court.
Flagg is a better defensive player than offensive one at this point, but he can still pour it in as a scorer. Regardless, Duke’s do-everything centerpiece will have a spotlight trained on him for good reason: He’s the rare talent, even at 17, who can lead a team to a national championship.
COOP &1 @Cooper_Flagg pic.twitter.com/P9pCUnbjuf
— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) October 28, 2024
5. Experience rules
When the 2020 NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID-19, the NCAA granted every player that season an additional year of eligibility. In the final season with those players still active, what is the legacy of that decision? The most experienced era in the recent history of the sport.
According to NCAA data, in 2018-19 — the final full season before the pandemic — the average experience level for DI men’s players was 2.41 years; for this season, it’s up to 2.62. But that data isn’t totally representative because it counts fifth-year players like normal seniors. If it accounted for the additional year, the average is pushed even higher. Take Xavier, the most experienced high-major team in the country this season. The Musketeers’ average experience is 3.35 years, per NCAA data. But if you account for the team’s eight fifth-year players, that figure rises to 3.53.
As for how experience correlates to winning? There have been only two freshman starters in the past two Final Fours combined, both for UConn: Karaban (2023) and Stephon Castle (2024). Duke, or another freshman-heavy team, may reverse that narrative this season. But recent history suggests experience is more valuable than ever.
6. Rutgers has 2 of the nation’s top 3 recruits
The only school in the past decade to land two of the nation’s top three recruits was Duke, until this summer. But by signing forward Ace Bailey (No. 2 nationally, per the 247Sports Composite) and point guard Dylan Harper (No. 3), Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell has accomplished the seemingly impossible in New Jersey. (The wonders that a family legacy — Harper’s older brother, Ron Harper Jr., also played at Rutgers — and a robust NIL pitch can do.)
Both Bailey and Harper are projected top-five picks in next summer’s NBA Draft — and they could even challenge Flagg to go first if they lead the Scarlet Knights to the NCAA Tournament.
At 6 feet 6 and 215 pounds, Harper has ideal size for a lead guard, and he offers polished three-level scoring ability. Bailey is more raw, but there aren’t many prospects with his athleticism at 6 feet 10. They’ll be asked to carry a heavy load in a Big Ten predicated on physicality and post play.
7. Another transfer portal cycle sees top names find new homes
Where did some of the top names wind up? Former Final Four participants — point guard Jeremy Roach (Duke) and forward Norchad Omier (Miami) — will team up at Baylor this season. The remaining cornerstones from Florida Atlantic’s 2023 Final Four team scattered, as well; center Vlad Goldin followed May to Michigan, guard Johnell Davis went to Arkansas, while guard Alijah Martin stayed in Florida and joined the Gators.
Tucker DeVries — the two-time Missouri Valley Player of the Year and the No. 1 transfer in The Athletic’s rankings — went with his father, Darian, to West Virginia. New Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz brought his best player, the goggle-wearing Robbie Avila, with him from Indiana State. Forward Great Osobor moved from Utah State to Washington to stay with coach Danny Sprinkle.
Coleman Hawkins (Illinois) picked Kansas State. Rylan Griffen left one Final Four team (Alabama) for another potential one (Kansas). Louisville brought in an entire new roster, headlined by Chucky Hepburn (Louisville), Terrence Edwards Jr. (James Madison) and Kasean Pryor (USF). We could go on.
8. Can the Big Ten end its 25-year national title drought? It looks unlikely
No Big Ten team has won it all since Tom Izzo captured his first (and only) title with Michigan State in 2000.
Since then, eight Big Ten teams — Indiana (2002), Illinois (2005), Ohio State (2007), Michigan State (2009), Michigan (2013), Wisconsin (2015), Michigan (2018) and Purdue (2024) — have made it to the championship game, but none have finished the job. Eleven coaches surveyed by The Athletic largely agreed that probably speaks more to the randomness of March Madness than any overarching condemnation of one conference but also spoke to style of play.
It seems unlikely the Big Ten snaps its dry spell this season. Purdue is the top-ranked preseason team in the league at No. 14, followed by Indiana (No. 17), UCLA (No. 22) and Rutgers (No. 25). There just doesn’t appear to be one or two clear front-runners. However …
9. Could we see a record for NCAA Tournament teams from one league?
The Big East holds the single-season record for NCAA Tournament bids by one league, when 11 of its 16 teams qualified in 2011. But with conference realignment leading to larger high-major leagues, will the record be broken this season?
Possible, but still improbable. Three leagues seem best-positioned: the SEC, Big Ten or Big 12. The SEC has nine teams ranked in the preseason Top 25 and a 10th (Mississippi State) that received votes in the poll. The Big Ten has seven others who received preseason votes in addition to the four ranked. The Big 12 is top-heavy; six of its teams are ranked, with the potential for more to emerge from its meaty middle class.
Even if it doesn’t happen this season, we expect that 11-bid mark to eventually be topped. It could also fall soon if there is moderate NCAA Tournament expansion, which could be implemented as soon as the 2026 bracket. Over the summer, The Athletic reported that the NCAA had presented proposals for both a 72- and 76-team field to DI conference commissioners. Under both proposals, the First Four would be expanded to include at least four more at-large teams.
How much of an appetite is there to expand the 68-team field? Enough, although not to a major extent. But multiple high-major conference commissioners — including the SEC’s Greg Sankey and the ACC’s Jim Phillips — have previously expressed an interest in exploring tournament expansion. Talks remain ongoing.
10. Final Four predictions
In our staff survey, 11 teams earned Final Four votes: Gonzaga (8), Alabama (6), UConn (5), Houston (5), Kansas (5), Iowa State (4), Duke (2), Baylor (2), Arizona, Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Of those schools, five were picked as the preseason national champion at least once — but none more than Gonzaga, whom three of our experts picked to deliver Mark Few’s long-awaited first title. (The others? Alabama, Kansas, UConn and Houston.) That group makes up the clear top cluster of teams expected to compete to win it all.
11. Cheers to the schedule-makers for great opening-week games
Here are 10 of the opening-week matchups circled on our calendar, featuring 10 different ranked teams (times ET):
Monday
No. 13 Texas A&M at UCF, 7 p.m.
Missouri at Memphis, 8 p.m.
No. 19 Texas vs. Ohio State, 10 p.m.
No. 8 Baylor at No. 6 Gonzaga, 11:30 p.m.
Friday, Nov. 8
No. 9 North Carolina at No. 1 Kansas, 7 p.m.
Saturday, Nov. 9
No. 12 Tennessee at Louisville, noon
No. 8 Baylor vs. No. 16 Arkansas, 7:30 p.m.
Northwestern at Dayton, 7:30 p.m.
No. 11 Auburn vs. No. 4 Houston, 9:30 p.m.
Sunday, Nov. 10
Michigan vs. Wake Forest, 1 p.m.
(Photo of UConn’s Alex Karaban: Brett Wilhelm / NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
Culture
Lewis Hamilton ends Mercedes F1 career with fight, emotion: ‘I’ve got no more tears’
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — Stooped beside his silver and black Mercedes W15 car on the main straight of the Yas Marina Circuit on Sunday, Lewis Hamilton paused to soak up the moment.
It was the final time after 12 seasons, 246 grands prix, 84 race wins and six drivers’ world championships, making it the longest and most successful driver and team partnership in the history of F1, that he would be alone with his Mercedes car. In February, he’ll be racing in red for Ferrari.
Balancing on his toes and with his forearms resting on the sidepod, helmet still on, Hamilton bowed his head and took some time to think about the journey he and Mercedes had been on together. The good, the bad. The highs, the lows.
“I just wanted to embrace the moment because it’s the last time I’m going to step into a Mercedes and represent them,” Hamilton said in the media pen after the race, eyes glistening. “It’s been the greatest honor of my life.”
The overriding emotion in that moment beside the car was gratitude. “I was just giving thanks,” Hamilton said. “Firstly, thanking my own spirit for not giving up, for continuing to push, and thanking everyone that powers and builds that car. I’m proud of everyone.”
Twenty-four hours earlier, it felt like Hamilton’s last blast in the silver car might be a difficult one. Mercedes made a mistake by mistiming his last qualifying run in Q1, leaving him a lowly 16th on the grid. Toto Wolff, the team principal, apologized to Hamilton for an “idiotic” mistake that would make his race much, much tougher.
In the post-qualifying debrief, even as the engineers and strategists rued the error, Hamilton reminded them of all the good moments they’d enjoyed together. He was still hopeful of finishing on a high, providing a swansong tribute to the team that has given him so much professionally and personally.
And Hamilton did exactly that, delivering a memorable fightback to sign off at Mercedes in Abu Dhabi.
From 16th, he made up a handful of positions on the opening lap thanks to incidents ahead before sitting on the fringes of the points. By running the alternate tire strategy, the plan was always to run deep on the hard tire before pitting, setting Hamilton up for a final charge to the line. After biding his time and letting the cars ahead pit, he started moving into position for a decent points haul. Hamilton’s engineer, Pete Bonnington, came onto the radio toward the end of the first stint to say there was a possible third-place finish on the cards, according to Mercedes’ data.
Hamilton emerged from the pits in seventh place with fresh medium tires, ready to bear down on the cars ahead on older, slower hards. For one final time, Bonnington delivered the catchphrase that it was time for Hamilton to push, one that has encouraged the Briton to claim wins and poles throughout their time together.
“OK, Lewis, it’s hammer time!”
“When he told me, I was like, I can’t remember the last time he told me ‘hammer time,’” Hamilton said post-race. “I remember I told Bono to say hammer time back in the first year together. I was like, ‘Don’t tell me just, ‘go faster,’ just tell me, ‘It’s hammer time,’ and I’ll know what it is!’”
As always, Hamilton got the memo. He quickly picked off Nico Hulkenberg and Pierre Gasly before being told there was a 14-second gap to his teammate, George Russell, ahead in fourth place. The pair went into Abu Dhabi tied on points from their three seasons together. This last stint would settle the intra-team battle. Hamilton said it “took perfection” to catch Russell in the final stages.
It went all the way to the last lap. On the radio, Wolff told Russell to bear in mind the situation, which was a gentle reminder to keep things clean. Russell was powerless to keep his teammate behind anyway when at Turn 9, the same corner where Hamilton saw Max Verstappen pull away to the championship three years ago and deny him a historic eighth title, Hamilton swept around Russell outside and moved ahead. A brave, brilliant overtake.
“I only caught him right at that last lap, and I was like, it’s now or never,” Hamilton said. Russell thought it was “quite a fitting way to finish with Lewis, just one second apart after these three years” and was pleased to see his teammate end in style. “He deserved it,” Russell said. “The team deserved to give him that send-off.”
As he turned through the final few corners, the sky already lit up with fireworks to honor Lando Norris’s win, Hamilton soaked in the last moments as a Mercedes grand prix driver before crossing the line. The radio messages with Bonnington and Wolff on the cool-down lap were filled with emotion, Bonnington seemingly in tears. The end had arrived.
Post-race, the analytical side of Wolff pondered that, without the bollard getting stuck under Hamilton’s car in qualifying, he might’ve been able to fight for victory. Hamilton told Wolff to instead think about the 84 wins they’d already achieved together.
“These last few races, they don’t change how we feel about it,” Wolff said. “He drove like a world champion today from P16. We played the long game and finished fourth, driving away from the Red Bull. That was a statement of a world champion.”
Hamilton was also glad to finish a challenging year on a high. Despite wins at Silverstone and Spa, his first victories since 2021, seventh place still marks his lowest championship finish in F1, having struggled to gel with the tricky Mercedes car throughout the year. The subtext of his pending move to Ferrari, announced at the start of February, underpinning everything this year also presented its own challenge.
“It’s been a really turbulent year, probably the longest year of my life, I would say,” Hamilton said. “We’ve known from the beginning that I’m leaving, and it’s like a relationship — when you’ve told whoever the counterpart is that you’re leaving, but you’re living together for a whole year. Lots of ups and downs, emotionally. But we finished off with a high today.”
The only emotions Hamilton felt post-race were positive. He’d completed his celebratory donuts on the start-finish line, permission given to him as part of the FIA’s post-race procedures, and then gone back to the Mercedes garage to celebrate with his team, so many of whom were eager to get one final picture together. A lasting memory for all their success. All the history they have written.
The whole weekend had been about that. On Thursday, Hamilton took a number of his engineers and mechanics, including Bonnington, for a hot lap about the Yas Marina Circuit. Mercedes then held a team event on Thursday night that looked back on Hamilton’s time at Brackley and paid tribute to all their success. Hamilton had no idea it was happening and was genuinely touched by the surprise.
“That was super emotional,” he said. “I ain’t got no more tears, really. Everything came out there.”
That didn’t stop Sunday from being soaked in emotion. Despite the challenges of this year and the long, awkward goodbye before he moves to Ferrari, a fierce rival Hamilton and Mercedes have worked tirelessly to defeat, there has always been an underlying respect and affection for all they’ve accomplished together. The message from Wolff and the Mercedes board members in Abu Dhabi to Hamilton was that he would always be a part of their story and, more importantly, their family.
When Hamilton made the decision to quit McLaren for Mercedes back in 2012, many thought it was the wrong move. Few could have predicted their success. Even fewer that the relationship would’ve lasted so long and run so deep.
As Hamilton put it on the cool-down lap, “What started out as a leap of faith turned into a journey into the history books.” What a journey it has been.
Top photo: Sipa USA
Culture
Ilia Malinin, U.S. figure skating’s new star, caps a perfect year and eyes Olympic glory
At the end of his free skate Saturday, Ilia Malinin sprawled out on the ice, eyes closed, soaking it all in. The man known as the “Quad God” had just unleashed a series of quadruple jumps — including the quad axel, a jump that no one else has ever landed — and even a backflip in his typical spectacular style.
The routine had included a fall and several other miscues, but it didn’t matter. Malinin, the rising American who turned 20 on Monday, easily beat Japanese rival Yuma Kagiyama to win the men’s singles competition in the Grand Prix Final, finish an undefeated 2024 and further cement his status as a superstar in the making.
Perhaps the only thing not going Malinin’s way is that the Olympics are in 14 months instead of two.
Since the 2022 Beijing Games, Malinin has become the new force in men’s figure skating, his win Saturday completing a perfect calendar year that included the World Championship gold medal and has made him the sport’s clear No. 1, just over a year before the 2026 Olympics begin in Milan.
Malinin started with a dazzling short program Friday, opening up a near-12-point lead over Kagiyama, the silver medalist at worlds behind Malinin. In Saturday’s free skate, Malinin unleashed a barrage of quads — the axel, lutz, salchow, toe loop, loop and flip — and a crowd-pleasing backflip near the end to claim another major title. He finished with a combined score of 292.12, besting Kagiyama’s 281.78. Japan’s Shun Sato took third with a 270.82.
“I had this idea and this goal that I wanted to achieve here, and I was able to blow it out of the park,” Malinin said in the arena after the win.
A familiar sound for Ilia Malinin. 🇺🇸
He stands on the top of the podium after successfully defending his #GPFigure title. 🥇 pic.twitter.com/QkhbfrWP8f
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) December 7, 2024
The Grand Prix Final is the culmination of figure skating’s annual Grand Prix series, inviting only the top six skaters or pairs in each discipline. It’s among the most prestigious worldwide titles in the sport, after the Olympics and the World Championships.
The win capped a stellar weekend in Grenoble, France, for the U.S. with three titles. Earlier Saturday, Amber Glenn won the women’s competition, and Madison Chock and Evan Bates — the two-time defending world champions — won the ice dance for the second straight year. The Americans also took a gold and two silvers in the junior competition.
Malinin was born and raised in Virginia. His parents, Roman Skorniakov and Tatiana Malinina, are former Olympic figure skaters with Russian and Uzbekistani heritage. They relocated to the U.S. and live in Vienna, Va., where Malinin learned to skate at the facility where his parents coach. He attends George Mason University.
Malinin might already be a household name for casual Olympics fans if not for a decision in 2022 that kept him off the U.S. team in Beijing.
At the U.S. Championships that year, one month before the Olympics, Malinin — who had just turned 18 — finished a surprising second place behind Nathan Chen, making a strong case to be named to the team. But the selection committee — not required to choose based on the results alone — instead opted for experience and picked former Olympians Vincent Zhou and Jason Brown — the third- and fourth-place finishers at nationals — to join Chen in Beijing and made Malinin the first alternate.
It worked out for the U.S. — it won team gold after Russian skater Kamila Valieva was disqualified and her score subtracted — but it meant Malinin would have to wait for his Olympic debut.
In the time since, he has skyrocketed to the top of the sport. After the Olympics, the Americans sent Malinin to the 2022 World Championships, where he finished ninth. Then he competed in the World Junior Championships and won gold for his first major victory.
From there, he competed on the senior circuit full time. The 2022-23 season brought gold at the U.S. Championships and bronze at worlds and the Grand Prix Final, as well as his first successful quad axel. Now, in 2024, he’s been unbeatable — World Championships, Grand Prix Final, U.S. Championships — gold in all.
Before his arrow-shot up the rankings, Malinin gained recognition for an unprecedented move. Until Sept. 15, 2022, no figure skater had landed a fully rotated quadruple axel — four full spins in the air off the axel jump, which is considered the hardest in the sport and starts forward-facing, necessitating an extra half rotation to complete.
That changed when Malinin unleashed it at an event in Lake Placid, N.Y.
History. Made.🤯
17-year-old Ilia Malinin 🇺🇸 becomes the first figure skater to land a quadruple Axel in competition.
Full story ➡️ https://t.co/cIHBkGIZFH#FigureSkatingpic.twitter.com/jysyCrF0lr
— The Olympic Games (@Olympics) September 15, 2022
He’s repeated the feat several times since and goes by the nickname “Quadg0d” on Instagram in honor of the accomplishment. He’s said in interviews he’s considering trying a quintuple version of the jump.
It’s his signature move but far from the extent of his skill. Malinin’s athletic routines have produced massive scores — including a world-record free skate at this year’s World Championships. He wasted no time breaking out a backflip in competition in October after a ban on the move — in place since 1977 — was lifted earlier this year.
Can we talk about Ilia Malinin casually doing a backflip in his program real quick? 🫨 #SkateAmerica pic.twitter.com/vcafwJn2yZ
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) October 21, 2024
Malinin finished 2024 with seven wins in seven events. He hasn’t finished out of the top three in any event since that 2022 World Championships he competed in after missing out on Beijing. And the next major event is on his home turf — the 2025 worlds are in Boston from March 23 to 30.
There’s still another year of competition until the Olympics begin in Milan in February 2026, time for another top contender like Kagiyama or France’s Adam Siao Him Fa — the bronze medalist at last year’s worlds who missed this Grand Prix Final with an injury — to chase Malinin down. But the American enters 2025 as the clear No. 1 in the sport.
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(Photo: Jurij Kodrun / International Skating Union via Getty Images)
Culture
Giants’ record-setting Willy Adames deal shows Buster Posey means business
Buster Posey held the San Francisco Giants’ record for the largest contract in franchise history. In Posey’s first major move as the club’s president of baseball operations, he did not hesitate to smash it.
The Giants agreed to terms with free-agent shortstop Willy Adames on a seven-year, $182 million contract on Saturday, reshaping the left side of their infield for the remainder of the decade and signaling their resolve to remain aggressive as they seek to reestablish their relevance in the National League West. The agreement with Adames is pending a physical — more than a trifling detail given the medical issues that scuttled Carlos Correa’s $350 million contract following the 2022 season — and its guaranteed money would soar past Posey’s own nine-year, $167 million contract that he signed after winning the NL MVP Award in 2012.
With Adames and third baseman Matt Chapman, who signed a six-year, $150 million extension in September, the Giants have committed a third of a billion dollars to establish a solid offensive and defensive presence on the left side of their infield. Viewed together, those investments are not so different from the megadeals that the Texas Rangers gave to shortstop Corey Seager and second baseman Marcus Semien after the 2021 season — a $500 million bet that paid off when the Rangers won the first World Series title in franchise history two years later.
Adames, 29, earned 4.8 fWAR last season when he finished fourth in the majors with 112 RBIs, set career highs in home runs (32) and stolen bases (21), and led the Milwaukee Brewers to the NL Central title. Likely just as significant to Posey and the Giants, Adames was a respected leader in Milwaukee, praised for his durability and his ability to produce in the clutch. He was among the league’s best defenders at shortstop in 2023, and although several of his advanced metrics declined this past season, there’s little doubt that he represents an upgrade with the glove over the Giants’ internal options at the position.
Perhaps the most revealing aspect of the Giants’ stunning agreement, which came on the eve of baseball’s Winter Meetings in Dallas, is how it reflects on Posey, who had been something of a cipher in his brief tenure as a first-time baseball executive, filling out front-office positions and adding advisory voices but otherwise providing few specifics on how aggressive he would be at improving a team that finished 80-82 in 2024 while missing the postseason for the seventh time in eight seasons.
But Posey had been clear on one point: He identified acquiring a shortstop as the club’s top priority. And the Giants just agreed to sign the top shortstop on the free-agent market.
Posey had a talent for cutting through the noise during his career behind the plate, tackling problems head-on, carving a direct path and avoiding the trap of overthinking. If his first major move as the Giants’ chief baseball architect is any indication, he will lean on those same attributes and impulses while seeking to close the sizable gap between his team and the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Identify problem. Fix problem.
Posey wasn’t sufficiently deterred by the fact that signing Adames, who had been extended a qualifying offer by the Brewers, will force the Giants to sacrifice their second- and fifth-round picks along with $1 million in international bonus money from their 2026 pool. Those are no small considerations for a franchise that also punted its second- and third-round picks in this past draft after signing Chapman and left-hander Blake Snell the previous offseason. The Giants wouldn’t have lost draft picks if they had pivoted from Adames to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, a favorite of Giants manager Bob Melvin from their time together in San Diego but who will be continuing to rehab from offseason shoulder surgery on Opening Day.
But Adames was clearly the best shortstop on the market. And Posey kept it as simple as that.
“Ultimately, it’s a boring answer, but you just want complete baseball players,” Posey said at the GM Meetings in November. “You want guys who can do some of everything.”
GO DEEPER
Top 45 MLB free agents for 2024-25 with contract predictions, team fits: Will Soto get $600M+?
Interestingly, Posey’s first major free-agent signing is a fellow CAA client. The Giants recently announced the hiring of Jeff Berry, Posey’s former agent and the former head of CAA’s baseball division, as a special advisor.
ESPN was the first to report the agreement. The Giants aren’t expected to announce it until late Sunday or Monday.
The addition of Adames would push Tyler Fitzgerald into a competition at second base with Casey Schmitt, Brett Wisely and potentially Marco Luciano if the organization’s former top prospect isn’t traded or moved to the outfield.
The biggest question becomes how aggressive the Giants will be to address their second major need: a pitching presence for a rotation that threw the fewest innings in the National League despite the fact that their opening-day ace, Logan Webb, threw the most on an individual basis. Several reports have linked the Giants to former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, a Bakersfield-area native who competed at Saint Mary’s College in Moraga and would give the Giants one of the best 1-2 punches in the league.
Before last season with the Baltimore Orioles, Burnes had spent his entire major-league career with the Brewers so the addition of Adames might be a selling point in any Giants’ attempt at a pursuit. Both players are very well known to Zack Minasian, the Giants’ newly elevated GM, who had been the scouting director in Milwaukee during his 14 seasons with the organization. Minasian had been one of the strongest voices to champion Burnes when the right-hander showed promise in the minor leagues, advising then-Brewers GM Doug Melvin to make the former fourth-round pick practically untouchable in trade discussions.
On a cash basis, the Giants spent $206 million on player salaries last season, exceeded the luxury tax threshold ($237 million) for the first time since 2018 and sustained operating losses that caused some discomfort among members of the ownership group. Their placeholder budget numbers for 2025 had called for a reduction in player payroll, which might still be achieved even if the club can win the bidding for Burnes — a market that is expected to exceed $200 million — as well as Adames.
Adding Adames’ $26 million average annual value would put the Giants’ estimated cash-basis payroll at roughly $170 million. If the Giants seek to trim in other areas, they could trade one or more of their arbitration-eligible players (LaMonte Wade Jr. and Camilo Doval among them). Or they could sign one of several second-tier starting pitchers who won’t come cheap — witness Luis Severino’s three-year, $67 million contract with the A’s — but would require a fraction of what it would take to land Burnes, who notably left CAA for the Boras Corporation in 2023 and whose potential signing also would cost the Giants their third- and sixth-round draft picks.
Or Posey could do what he demonstrated so often over his playing career: cut through the noise, go after the best player, and convince ownership to spend.
“I know we’ll be very diligent in our decision-making,” Posey said last month. “But something I’ve tried to inject with the group is for us not to be hamstrung from that potential fear of failure. It’s knowing that, ‘Hey, sometimes we’re going to have to risk media members saying this was a bad decision or a bad move.’ But if we feel convicted in it, then you have to be OK with it.”
(Top photo of Adames: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)
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