Culture
College Football Playoff at-large contenders: Cases for, against and fatal flaws
As the season approaches its final two weeks, jostling for at-large bids continues for teams in the upper echelon of College Football Playoff competition.
At this point, there are teams with CFP hopes both as a conference champion and as an at-large. There are others, such as Big 12 contenders BYU and Colorado, which need to win their conference to reach the Playoff. The same scenario exists for Group of 5 squads Boise State and Tulane.
For the teams strictly in at-large contention, what are the cases for their inclusion and what are the flaws that could keep them from the 12-team tournament? Below we examine 16 teams with at-large hopes — not just the 16 highest-ranked teams — and examine why they are worthy of at-large consideration while breaking down their flaws.
No. 1 Oregon (11-0)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS (strength of schedule): 52; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 4-0; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 6-0; Points for: 33.9; Points against: 15.7.
Case for: The Ducks are the nation’s only unbeaten team, have ranked wins against Ohio State, Boise State and Illinois and compete in a coast-to-coast conference. At this stage, Oregon deserves the No. 1 ranking without debate.
Fatal flaw: This is more of a concern moving forward. Had Ohio State quarterback Will Howard slid a second earlier and called a timeout against Oregon, the Buckeyes might have kicked a game-winning field goal in Eugene. The teams are likely to meet in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship. Should Oregon fall, the Ducks could face Boise State again in the CFP, and they won that game on a last-second field goal. Rematches against motivated opponents could pose challenges.
No. 2 Ohio State (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 58; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 5-0; Points for: 37.8; Points against: 10.7.
Case for: The Buckeyes have the talent at every position to compete with any team in the country. They boast two NFL-caliber running backs and the nation’s top defense. Howard has completed 80 percent of his passes in six different games, and receivers Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are an electrifying trio. On a neutral field, this team could win it all.
Fatal flaw: There are times the Buckeyes look ordinary, like in a 21-17 home win against Nebraska. Injuries to Ohio State’s top two offensive linemen could have consequences against a physical, athletic front. Howard has competed at a high level this year, but can he make the game-winning plays in a close contest against similar talent?
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No. 3 Texas (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 39; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 7-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 3-0; Points for: 37.8; Points against: 12.1.
Case for: Texas can match up with anyone player-for-player. The Longhorns have the SEC’s top scoring defense and rank second nationally in total defense. They have an experienced quarterback in Quinn Ewers, elite players at every position and showed their grit by losing only one game so far in their first SEC season.
Fatal flaw: The Longhorns don’t own a victory over a current Top 25 team. They avoided Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee and South Carolina and they lost decisively to Georgia. That doesn’t take away their intent; the Longhorns traveled to defending national champion Michigan and won 31-19. But questions persist about how Texas will perform against fellow elite programs because they haven’t faced more than one entering this week’s showdown against Texas A&M.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 37; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 6-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 32.4; Points against: 14.6.
Case for: The Nittany Lions have handled their business in fine fashion. They survived at tough road venues like USC, Minnesota, Wisconsin and West Virginia with big plays in critical moments. Penn State has an underrated quarterback in Drew Allar, the nation’s best tight end in Tyler Warren and a top-five NFL Draft pick in edge rusher Abdul Carter. The Nittany Lions can adapt to different styles and weather won’t be a factor.
Fatal flaw: There are two big questions facing Penn State. One, can their wide receivers gain enough separation against an equally talented opponent? Two, can coach James Franklin string together multiple wins against top-10 competition? In Franklin’s 11 years, the Nittany Lions are 3-17 against top-10 opponents with only one victory in the last eight seasons.
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By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 65; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 6-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 39.0; Points against: 11.6.
Case for: Few, if any, teams have looked more impressive than Notre Dame in the last two months. Only once have the Irish allowed more than 16 points in a game, and they’ve scored at least 31 points in each of their last seven games. Quarterback Riley Leonard has become an elite playmaker and Notre Dame’s line of scrimmage play can hang with any opponent.
Fatal flaw: The Irish have ranked wins against Texas A&M and Army away from home, but their overall schedule was light. Notre Dame’s 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois has served as a lightning rod for criticism. For the Irish the scenario is simple: beat USC and pick up a home CFP game. Lose to the Trojans and probably fall from CFP consideration.
No. 6 Miami (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 61; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 44.7; Points against: 22.3.
Case for: The Hurricanes average more points than any team in CFP contention. With quarterback Cam Ward, Miami can fill it up. In five different games, the Hurricanes have scored at least 50 points.
Fatal flaw: No at-large contender allows more points per game than Miami at 22.3. The Hurricanes frequently have been involved in one-score games against unranked opponents and have needed late rallies to win. Miami has yet to play a Top 25 team, let alone beat one.
Miami will finish the regular season on the road against Syracuse on Saturday. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 4; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 4-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 33.2; Points against: 14.6.
Case for: Nobody has more quality wins than Georgia, which beat CFP contenders Clemson, Texas and Tennessee. When operating at a high level, the Bulldogs look like an eventual champion. They have a veteran quarterback and talent that jumps off the roster. Despite a loss at Alabama, their furious comeback attempt will scare any future opponent.
Fatal flaw: Which version of Carson Beck will take the field in the CFP? He’s thrown 12 interceptions and three picks in three different games, including in a loss to Alabama and a win against Texas. In a game between equally matched opponents, how Beck performs could enhance – or harm – Georgia’s performance.
No. 8 Tennessee (9-2)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 57; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 3-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 5-0; Points for: 37.4; Points against: 13.1.
Case for: The Vols can play any style of football and compete. They rank second in the SEC in both points scored and points allowed. Running back Dylan Sampson is one of the nation’s three best running backs and sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava displays some dynamic qualities.
Fatal flaw: Outside of beating Alabama, the Vols have an ordinary resume. None of their nonconference opponents are bowl eligible, and they lost to 6-5 Arkansas at home. It’s why Tennessee hovered outside the CFP before Ole Miss and Alabama suffered losses last weekend.
No. 9 SMU (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 59; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 39.3; Points against: 21.0.
Case for: SMU’s ACC debut has been flawless with nary a loss despite a reduced revenue share. The Mustangs are one victory shy of running the table and advancing to the ACC title game. All-everything running back Brashard Smith was critical in wins against Duke and Pittsburgh.
Fatal flaw: An early loss to BYU lingers but not in the way most people expected back in September. With SEC teams slipping after their third loss, heightened scrutiny awaits SMU this weekend against Cal and in a potential ACC title game. It’s worth watching SMU’s defense, which has allowed at least 25 points to every bowl-eligible opponent since its BYU loss.
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By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 68; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 3-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 6-0; Points for: 41.3; Points against: 16.0.
Case for: The eye test and statistics favor Indiana. The Hoosiers have an electrifying offense led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke and five receivers with at least 24 catches, 280 yards and three touchdowns. Indiana also plays high-level defense, which is unusual for a portal-based team.
Fatal flaw: As of today, Indiana has beaten three FBS teams with winning records but that could fall to zero by Saturday. Its strength of schedule is by far the lowest of any power conference team vying for an at-large bid. In the Hoosiers’ only game against a ranked opponent, they lost 38-15 to Ohio State.
No. 12 Clemson (9-2)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 62; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 1-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 7-0; Points for: 37.6; Points against: 22.0.
Case for: In all but one of its victories, Clemson won by double figures. It has a potent offense guided by quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has 29 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tigers are third in the ACC in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
Fatal flaw: Clemson has the most pedestrian resume of any potential at-large squad. It has played just three FBS teams with winning records and won just once, and that was last week against 7-4 Pittsburgh. The Tigers give up nearly 23 points a game, the second-most of any team in the CFP Top 25.
No. 13 Alabama (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 7; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 6-3; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 1-0; Points for: 36.2; Points against: 17.5.
Case for: In the first half against Georgia or throughout its victories against LSU and Missouri, Alabama looked like not only a CFP team but a title contender. Nine of its 11 FBS opponents have winning records, including seven of eight SEC opponents.
Fatal flaw: It really starts and ends with the win-loss record. Losing three games would end CFP hopes for nearly every other program save for Alabama. The Tide dropped games to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, both of which are 6-5. It’s not impossible to build a case for Alabama’s inclusion, but it involves losses by multiple teams this weekend rather than for the Tide to simply beat Auburn.
No. 14 Ole Miss (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 31; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 2-1; Points for: 38.5; Points against: 13.9.
Case for: Just watch the Rebels in action. It’s a potent offense led by Jaxson Dart and Tre Harris, capable of putting up points on everyone. Ole Miss crushed Georgia 28-10 and scored 63 points on Arkansas, which held Tennessee to 14. The defense has NFL-caliber performers, especially along the line.
Fatal flaw: Not only do Mississippi’s three losses make it difficult to climb into the CFP, but it’s also who beat the Rebels. None of the three teams are ranked by the committee with LSU (7-4) posting the best record. Losing at home to Kentucky (4-7) is probably the kill shot.
Ole Miss’ loss to Florida last week dropped the Rebels’ Playoff chances to 9 percent, per The Athletic’s model. (Matt Pendleton / Imagn Images)
No. 15 South Carolina (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 18; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 4-3; Record vs. non-winning FBS teams: 3-0; Points for: 32.9; Points against: 18.2.
Case for: Of the 8-3 teams hovering in the SEC’s second tier, the Gamecocks won the important head-to-head battles against Texas A&M and Missouri. South Carolina has one of college football’s most dominant defensive lines with 39 sacks. Its offensive efficiency is impressive.
Fatal flaw: This is the season of “almosts” for South Carolina. Two touchdowns were called back against LSU because of penalties and a failed two-point conversion cost the Gamecocks an overtime opportunity against Alabama. Barring a chaotic scenario rivaling 2007, South Carolina “almost” will get into the CFP.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 33; Record vs. winning teams: 3-1; Record vs. non-winning teams: 6-1; Points for: 30.5; Points against: 22.8.
Case for: Arizona State has posted its two most impressive wins in the last two weeks, beating Kansas State 24-14 on the road before toppling BYU 28-23 at home. The Sun Devils, who are led by versatile running back Cam Skattebo, have churned out five wins by a touchdown or less.
Fatal flaw: The Sun Devils have a 7.7-point differential, which is by far the lowest of any potential at-large team. Their losses came against 7-4 Texas Tech and 5-6 Cincinnati, and they’ve played only four teams with winning records.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 40; Record vs. winning teams: 4-1; Record vs. non-winning teams: 4-1; Points for: 31.4; Points against: 19.5.
Case for: The Cyclones are resilient, as demonstrated by three come-from-behind victories in the closing seconds. Iowa State has the Big 12’s best pass defense, which ranks third overall. Their receiving combination of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel has compiled nearly 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Fatal flaw: Iowa State steadily climbed the rankings until losing two straight to Texas Tech and Kansas (5-6). The Cyclones don’t own any Top 25 wins, and their depleted defense has given up more than 230 rushing yards in three of their last five games.
(Top photo: Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Images))
A strong sense of place can deeply influence a story, and in some cases, the setting can even feel like a character itself — or have a lasting influence on an author. With that in mind, this week’s literary geography quiz highlights the final stops for five authors after a life of writing. To play, just make your selection in the multiple-choice list and the correct answer will be revealed. At the end of the quiz, you’ll find links to the books if you’d like to do further reading.
Whatever you do, don’t think of a bird.
Now: What kind of bird are you not thinking about? A pigeon? A bald eagle? Something more poetic, like a skylark or a nightingale? In any case, would you say that this bird you aren’t thinking about is real?
Before you answer, read this poem, which is quite literally about not thinking of a bird.
Human consciousness is full of riddles. Neuroscientists, philosophers and dorm-room stoners argue continually about what it is and whether it even exists. For Wallace Stevens, the experience of having a mind was a perpetual source of wonder, puzzlement and delight — perfectly ordinary and utterly transcendent at the same time. He explored the mysteries and pleasures of consciousness in countless poems over the course of his long poetic career. It was arguably his great theme.
Stevens was born in 1879 and published his first book, “Harmonium,” in 1923, making him something of a late bloomer among American modernists. For much of his adult life, he worked as an executive for the Hartford Accident and Indemnity Company, rising to the rank of vice president. He viewed insurance less as a day job to support his poetry than as a parallel vocation. He pursued both activities with quiet diligence, spending his days at the office and composing poems in his head as he walked to and from work.
As a young man, Stevens dreamed of traveling to Europe, though he never crossed the Atlantic. In middle age he made regular trips to Florida, and his poems are frequently infused with ideas of Paris and Rome and memories of Key West. Others partake of the stringent beauty of New England. But the landscapes he explores, wintry or tropical, provincial or cosmopolitan, are above all mental landscapes, created by and in the imagination.
Are those worlds real?
Let’s return to the palm tree and its avian inhabitant, in that tranquil Key West sunset of the mind.
Until then, we find consolation in fangles.
When the director Rob Reiner cast his leads in the 1986 film “Stand by Me,” he looked for young actors who were as close as possible to the personalities of the four children they’d be playing. There was the wise beyond his years kid from a rough family (River Phoenix), the slightly dim worrywart (Jerry O’Connell), the cutup with a temper (Corey Feldman) and the sensitive, bookish boy.
Wil Wheaton was perfect for that last one, Gordie Lachance, a doe-eyed child who is ignored by his family in favor of his late older brother. Now, 40 years later, he’s traveling the country to attend anniversary screenings of the film, alongside O’Connell and Feldman, which has thrown him back into the turmoil that he felt as an adolescent.
Wheaton has channeled those emotions and his on-set memories into his latest project: narrating a new audiobook version of “The Body,” the 1982 Stephen King novella on which the film was based.
A few years ago, Wheaton started to float the idea of returning to the story that gave him his big break — that of a quartet of boys in 1959 Oregon, in their last days before high school, setting out to find a classmate’s dead body. “I’ve been telling the story of ‘Stand By Me’ since I was 12 years old,” he said.
But this time was different. Wheaton, who has narrated dozens of audiobooks, including Andy Weir’s “The Martian” and Ernest Cline’s “Ready Player One,” says he has come to enjoy narration more than screen acting. “I’m safe, I’m in the booth, nobody’s looking at me and I can just tell you a story.”
The fact that he, an older man looking back on his younger years, is narrating a story about an older man looking back on his younger years, is not lost on Wheaton. King’s original story is bathed in nostalgia. Coming to terms with death and loss is one of its primary themes.
Two days after appearing on stage at the Academy Awards as part of a tribute to Reiner — who was murdered in 2025 alongside his wife, Michele — Wheaton got on the phone to talk about recording the audiobook, reliving his favorite scenes from the film and reexamining a quintessential story of childhood loss through the lens of his own.
This interview has been edited and condensed.
“I felt really close to him, and my memory of him.”
Wheaton on channeling a co-star’s performance.
There’s this wonderful scene in “Stand By Me.” Gordie and Chris are walking down the tracks talking about junior high. Chris is telling Gordie, “I wish to hell I was your dad, because I care about you, and he obviously doesn’t.”
It’s just so honest and direct, in a way that kids talk to each other that adults don’t. And I think that one of the reasons that really sticks with people, and that piece really lands on a lot of audiences, and has for 40 years, is, just too many people have been Gordie in that scene.
That scene is virtually word for word taken from the text of the book. And when I was narrating that, I made a deliberate choice to do my best to recreate what River did in that scene.
“You’re just a kid,
Gordie–”
“I wish to fuck
I was your father!”
he said angrily.
“You wouldn’t go around
talking about takin those stupid shop courses if I was!
It’s like
God gave you something,
all those stories
you can make up, and He said:
This is what we got for you, kid.
Try not to lose it.
But kids lose everything
unless somebody looks out for them and if your folks
are too fucked up to do it
then maybe I ought to.”
I watched that scene a couple of times because I really wanted — I don’t know why it was so important to me to — well, I know: because I loved him, and I miss him. And I wanted to bring him into this as best as I could, right?
So I was reading that scene, and the words are identical to the script. And I had this very powerful flashback to being on the train tracks that day in Cottage Grove, Oregon. And I could see River standing next to them. They’re shooting my side of the scene and there’s River, right next to the camera, doing his off-camera dialogue, and there’s the sound guy, and there’s the boom operator. There’s my key light.
I could hear and feel it. It was the weirdest thing. It’s like I was right back there.
I was able to really take in the emotional memory of being Gordie in all of those scenes. So when I was narrating him and I’m me and I’m old with all of this experience, I just drew on what I remembered from being that little boy and what I remember of those friendships and what they meant to me and what they mean to me today.
“Rob gave me a gift. Rob gave me a career.”
Wheaton recalls the “Stand By Me” director’s way with kids on set, as well as his recent Oscars tribute.
Rob really encouraged us to be kids.
Jerry tells the most amazing story about that scene, where we were all sitting around, and doing our bit, and he improvised. He was just goofing around — we were just playing — and he said something about spitting water at the fat kid.
We get to the end of the scene, and he hears Rob. Rob comes around from behind the thing, and he goes, “Jerry!” And Jerry thinks, “Oh no, I’m in trouble. I’m in trouble because I improvised, and I’m not supposed to improvise.”
The context for Jerry is that he had been told by the adults in his life, “Sit on your hands and shut up. Stop trying to be a cutup. Stop trying to be funny. Stop disrupting people. Just be quiet.” And Jerry thinks, “Oh my God. I didn’t shut up. I’m in trouble. I’m gonna get fired.”
Rob leans in to all of us, and Rob says, “Hey, guys, do you see that? More of that. Do that!”
The whole time when you’re a kid actor, you’re just around all these adults who are constantly telling you to grow up. They’re mad that you’re being a kid. Rob just created an environment where not only was it supported that we would be kids — and have fun, and follow those kid instincts and do what was natural — it was expected. It was encouraged. We were supposed to do it.
They chanted together:
“I don’t shut up,
I grow up.
And when I look at you I throw up.”
“Then your mother goes around the corner
and licks it up,”
I said, and hauled ass out of there,
giving them the finger over my shoulder as I went.
I never had any friends later on
like the ones I had when I was twelve.
Jesus, did you?
When we were at the Oscars, I looked at Jerry. And we looked at this remarkable assemblage of the most amazingly talented, beautiful artists and storytellers. We looked around, and Jerry leans down, and he said, “We all got our start with Rob Reiner. He trusted every single one of us.”
And to stand there for him, when I really thought that I would be standing with him to talk about this stuff — it was a lot.
“I was really really really excited — like jumping up and down.”
The scene Wheaton was most looking forward to narrating: the tale of Lard Ass Hogan.
I was so excited to narrate it. It’s a great story! It’s a funny story. It’s such a lovely break — it’s an emotional and tonal shift from what’s happening in the movie.
I know this as a writer: You work to increase and release tension throughout a narrative, and Stephen King uses humor really effectively to release that tension. But it also raises the stakes, because we have these moments of joy and these moments of things being very silly in the midst of a lot of intensity.
That’s why the story of Lard Ass Hogan is so fun for me to tell. Because in the middle of that, we stop to do something that’s very, very fun, and very silly and very celebratory.
“Will you shut up and let him tell it?”
Teddy hollered.
Vern blinked.
“Sure. Yeah.
Okay.”
“Go on, Gordie,”
Chris said. “It’s not really much—”
“Naw,
we don’t expect much from a wet end like you,”
Teddy said,
“but tell it anyway.”
I cleared my throat. “So anyway.
It’s Pioneer Days,
and on the last night
they have these three big events.
There’s an egg-roll for the little kids and a sack-race for kids that are like eight or nine,
and then there’s the pie-eating contest.
And the main guy of the story
is this fat kid nobody likes
named Davie Hogan.”
When I narrate this story — whenever there is a moment of levity or humor, whenever there are those brief little moments that are the seasoning of the meal that makes it all so real and relatable — yes, it was very important to me to capture those moments.
I’m shifting in my chair, so I can feel each of those characters. It’s something that doesn’t exist in live action. It doesn’t exist in any other media.
“I feel the loss.”
Wheaton remembers River Phoenix.
The novella “The Body” is very much about Gordie remembering Chris. It’s darker, and it’s more painful, than the movie is.
I’ve been watching the movie on this tour and seeing River a lot. I remember him as a 14- and 15-year-old kid who just seemed so much older, and so much more experienced and so much wiser than me, and I’m only a year younger than him.
What hurts me now, and what I really felt when I was narrating this, is knowing what River was going through then. We didn’t know. I still don’t know the extent of how he was mistreated, but I know that he was. I know that adults failed him. That he should have been protected in every way that matters. And he just wasn’t.
And I, like Gordie, remember a boy who was loving. So loving, and generous and cared deeply about everyone around him, all the time. Who deserved to live a full life. Who had so much to offer the world. And it’s so unfair that he’s gone and taken from us. I had to go through a decades-long grieving process to come to terms with him dying.
Near the end
of 1971,
Chris
went into a Chicken Delight in Portland
to get a three-piece Snack Bucket.
Just ahead of him,
two men started arguing
about which one had been first in line. One of them pulled a knife.
Chris,
who had always been the best of us
at making peace,
stepped between them and was stabbed in the throat.
The man with the knife had spent time in four different institutions;
he had been released from Shawshank State Prison
only the week before.
Chris died almost instantly.
It is a privilege that I was allowed to tell this story. I get to tell Gordie Lachance’s story as originally imagined by Stephen King, with all of the experience of having lived my whole adult life with the memory of spending three months in Gordie Lachance’s skin.
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