Culture
5 potential College Football Playoff underdogs favorites should fear including…Alabama?
College football has seen its fair share of underdog stories over the years. But too many of them occurred in September or in bowl games that counted for little more than pride. At long last, we’re on the brink of a new era. On Sunday, a genuine playoff bracket will be revealed, the first of its kind in FBS history (sorry, a four-team invitational doesn’t count).
With it comes the introduction of one of the most compelling aspects of sports: the chance for meaningful upsets. And, per our past research charting commonalities from upsets across sports, the most likely team to pull off one of those upsets (should they make the field) is Alabama.
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: What will Sunday’s final bracket look like?
Upsets are our niche, dating all the way back to 2006, when we launched the Giant Killers model that projects NCAA Tournament upsets (you know it as Bracket Breakers now). Over the years, we have expanded our reach to identify worthy underdogs in events ranging from the World Cup to the Olympics to the NFL. But all of those competitions had historical data we could analyze in our search for trends.
It will take time to build a robust model unique to the brand new College Football Playoff. (How much of an edge does a first-round home game provide? How much does an underdog’s conference matter in its chances of pulling off an upset?) In the meantime, we can still apply what we’ve learned about upsets in other sports, starting with three key premises that have proven true in just about any sport we have studied.
1. Some underdogs are underrated and under-seeded
Find teams whose underlying statistical strengths outweigh their records, and you’ll pinpoint squads that are likely to overperform in the future. In this case, that leads you to that plucky squad known as … the Alabama Crimson Tide. It also highlights how the current format won’t allow some of the most dangerous teams into the field. More on that later.
2. The best underdogs play high-risk, high-reward styles
Inviting greater variance into the upset equation boosts the chances an underdog can clip a superior opponent. For longshots, inconsistency is a good thing. To examine this, we have looked at the weekly shifts in every FBS team’s basic power rating this season, after adjusting for the strength of their opponents. Our Variability Index measures which programs have the widest range of game-to-game outcomes. Kansas has the craziest gyrations among Power 4 teams, beating BYU and Colorado before getting wiped out by Baylor in the past three weeks.
3. Luck tends to regress to the mean over time
It pays to target underdogs that have been victims of bad fortune, and attack favorites who have received more than their fair share of good breaks. Teamrankings.com measures this by comparing team records with scoring margins. Their Luck Rankings call UCF the unluckiest team in the country: The Knights went just 4-8 but scored 42 points more than their opponents this season.
With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the teams currently sitting on the CFP bubble. We’ll define that as teams that have a realistic chance of playing a first-round road game. We’re not concerned with which teams are most deserving of a bid; we want to know which have the best chance of pulling off a major upset, whether that’s a 12-seed winning a road game against the 5-seed, or a 9-seed taking out the No. 1 team in the quarterfinals.
We will be able to take a deeper dive once we have matchups. And we can address teams that don’t offer particularly strong or weak upset chances – Miami and Clemson, specifically – should they find their way into the bracket. But for now, here are five potential underdogs that favorites should want to avoid and four they should hope to face.
Good dogs
Ole Miss and Alabama
Hey, don’t blame us for shoehorning a couple of the biggest powerhouses in the country into the role of plucky underdogs. The top conferences have expanded to the point where their highly ranked teams can’t all play one another. And the CFP selection committee still hasn’t made its mission clear: Is it out to reward the teams that accomplished the most, or the teams that would make the strongest contenders moving forward?
It’s nearly inevitable for some of the best Power 4 also-rans to end up underseeded. It was also entirely foreseeable, too. Back in May, Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione asked, “[What] if a team has had a great season and played the toughest schedule in the season and has marquee wins but ends up with a 9-3 record?” So here we are.
No. 1 Oregon has gone 12-0 while scoring 422 points and allowed 194, for a 228-point differential. Alabama is at plus-219 (426-207) against a significantly tougher schedule. Ole Miss is at plus-283 (450-167) against a comparably difficult schedule.
GO DEEPER
How much does the CFP committee punish losing a conference title game?
The Crimson Tide have been unfortunate, winning six games by more than three touchdowns apiece while losing two by a touchdown or fewer. They rate 105th in the luck rankings.
The Rebels fare considerably worse than that, ranking 119th. They’ve walloped South Carolina and Georgia, but sustained three losses by a total of 13 points. Their pre-Thanksgiving game against Florida, where Ole Miss outgained the Gators 464 yards to 344 and had more red zone chances but lost, 24-17, was a particular horror show of uncharacteristic turnovers and fluky plays.
In fact, our Variability Index says Ole Miss has been one of the most consistent teams in the country, with the smallest spread among their very best and very worst performances. The Rebels’ weekly swings have been almost completely due to the strength of their opponents and (mostly bad) luck.
Whatever system you pick — Massey, ESPN’s SP+, the Simple Rating System, etc. — predictive analytics see both Alabama and Ole Miss as top-10 teams. It looks like Ole Miss is out, but if either of these two get in, all we can say is: Favorites, beware.
SMU
SMU enters Saturday night’s ACC Championship Game against Clemson as a 2.5-point favorite. If the Mustangs win, they could land the No. 3 seed.
If they lose, they can still make the Playoff, but probably as the 11- or 12-seed. It’s through that lens that we’re looking at them as a potential underdog. And in that scenario, their slingshot would be very dangerous. SMU ranks 30th in the nation in our Variability Index, the second-highest among all bubble teams — and not because their results have been bouncing all over the place, but because they’ve been improving by leaps and bounds.
SMU entered the national polls after beating Louisville on Oct. 5, and the Mustangs have continued to rise nearly every week since then, pulverizing ACC opponents by ever-increasing margins. In November, they won all four games by double-digits with an average margin of victory of 22.75 points.
SMU has been outstanding in the trenches, rushing for 177.9 yards while allowing just 95.8 per game. (Clemson, for comparison, is at 190.6 and 150.3.) And fairly quietly, quarterback Kevin Jennings has put together a season where he ranks 10th in the country in passer rating.
Point is, SMU is a top-10 team that’s unpredictable because it’s been getting better. If the Mustangs land in the lower reaches of the CFP, they’ll make one hot dog.
Indiana
By now, you know about Indiana’s astounding offense. The Hoosiers have hung 40 or more points on opponents eight times this season. QB Kurtis Rourke has a passer rating of 181.4, and WR Elijah Sarratt is nicknamed “Waffle House” because he’s always open, and he doesn’t even lead the team in yards per reception. That would be Omar Cooper Jr., who leads the country with 21.1 yards a catch.
But Indiana has also allowed just 14.7 points per game, the seventh-lowest total among FBS teams. The Hoosiers’ scoring margin (plus-344) is so huge that analytics systems see them as a top-10 team despite their middling schedule and a loss in their one true test at Ohio State.
Indiana has also had big swings: half a dozen games where they demolished opponents (beating Nebraska by 49, Michigan State by 37), and a handful of others where they won by merely comfortable margins (beating Northwestern by 17, Maryland by 14). Overall, the Hoosiers rank fifth in the country in our Variability Index, the highest among teams with a chance to make the CFP. So they’re very strong and very variable. Even on the road, that’s a recipe for seriously threatening a higher seed.
South Carolina
The Gamecocks aren’t likely to get in the field, but they represent another interesting case when viewed through the underdog lens.
In contrast to Alabama and Ole Miss, the Gamecocks haven’t been unlucky. If anything, their record is slightly better than their season-long numbers. But like SMU, they have been inconsistent because they have been getting better. South Carolina ranks 37th in the country in our Variability Index, second-highest among bubble teams, and you can see why: After three conference losses, including a blowout by Ole Miss, in a four-game stretch, this team turned around and whipped Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, and then overcame Missouri and Clemson by narrow margins.
All the while, South Carolina’s defense has been raising its game. Kyle Kennard now leads the nation with 11.5 sacks and 16 tackles for losses. Nick Emmanwori and Jalon Kilgore have eight interceptions between them. The Gamecocks have allowed just 15.3 points per game over the second half of this season. They’ve already shown that, at their best, they can play with anybody, and they’re showing at the end of the season their best is getting better. Alas, they probably won’t make the field.
Bad dogs
Boise State or UNLV
First things first: Boise State may not even get an opportunity to be a true underdog. Should the Broncos beat UNLV for the Mountain West title, they are likely to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 or even No. 3 seed. That’s despite ranking just 21st in ESPN’s SP+ rankings. Then again, despite being the higher seed, they should be a significant underdog in the quarterfinals if the No. 5 seed (potentially Penn State or Notre Dame) advances. And the Broncos don’t have the profile of a team that should pose much of a threat.
As we’ve stressed, variability is a key ingredient in an upset. Low floors don’t matter: They are the difference between losing by three or 30. But high ceilings generate unlikely outcomes. Boise State is the antithesis of that type of team. From week to week, the Broncos’ opponent-adjusted power rating has changed (up or down) by an average of only 0.88 points, the smallest bounce in the entire country. They’re also 14th in the nation in “luck” meaning they have likely overperformed against an underwhelming schedule.
Yes, the Broncos took Oregon to the wire in September. And sure, they have Ashton Jeanty doing jaw-dropping things. But the metrics say Boise State’s highest level simply isn’t good enough, and that’s still better than UNLV’s!
The Rebels are ranked in the 30s by most rating systems (and 42nd by Massey), so it’s not like they’re some sort of sleeping giant. They rank in the top half of the country in terms of good luck, and are only in the middle of the pack in our Variability Index. UNLV simply isn’t a Playoff-worthy team and, if they shock Boise State in the Mountain West title game, the Rebels’ stay will be brief.
Iowa State or Arizona State
Whichever team wins the Big 12 Championship Game should savor the moment because it won’t last long. There’s a reason why the CFP committee has consistently ranked Boise State ahead of whichever team has led the Big 12 most of the season. The conference is really weak.
According to ESPN’s SP+ rankings, BYU is the best of the bunch (20th), but the Cougars won’t play for the conference championship. Iowa State ranks 24th – one spot ahead of 6-6 USC. And Arizona State is 39th!
It’s not just that these teams are mediocre (by playoff standards). They also don’t compensate with strong underdog traits. Both teams have been extremely fortunate: The Sun Devils rank ninth in the country in luck rating, and the Cyclones are 15th. Their level of play is also steady. Arizona State is in the top 40 of most consistent teams in the country, which is nice when you’re trying to beat the likes of Kansas and TCU, but not when you need a ceiling-game to beat Notre Dame. Iowa State is the third-most consistent team in the country.
Neither team did much in its nonconference games, unless you’re impressed by Iowa State’s one-point win over Iowa in September or Arizona State’s seven-point win over 2-10 Mississippi State.
In short, one of these teams will win the Big 12, likely play the No. 5 seed on the road … and lose.
(Illustration by Eamonn Dalton; photo of Kevin Jennings: Sam Hodde/Getty Images; photo of Ashton Jeanty: Brandon Vallance / ISI Photos / Getty Images; photo of Jalen Milroe: Jason Clark / Getty Images)
Culture
Closed-Door Romance Books That Will Make You Swoon
As a lifelong fan of romantic comedies, my list of favorite “sweet” romances is extensive.
Not because I have a spice aversion — but because the rom-coms I love most, with that classic cinematic vibe, often come with fewer peppers on the spice scale.
Some people refer to these books as “closed door.” I prefer to think of them as “in the hall” romances (though that admittedly doesn’t roll off the tongue quite the same way). The reader is there for all the swoon, the burn and the banter — but when things head to the bedroom, the reader remains out in the hallway. With less focus on what happens inside the boudoir, all that juicy heightened tension and yearning really shine. Here are a few of my favorites.
Culture
Book Review: ‘Seek the Traitor’s Son,’ by Veronica Roth
SEEK THE TRAITOR’S SON, by Veronica Roth
I read Veronica Roth’s new novel for adults, “Seek the Traitor’s Son,” over one weekend and had a hard time putting it down, and not just because I was procrastinating on my house chores.
There’s much about the novel one would expect from Roth, the author of the Divergent series, one of the hottest dystopian young adult series of the 2010s. Thematically, the novels are similar. Like “Divergent,” this new book is also set in an alternate, dystopian version of our world; it is also packed with vivid, present-tense prose full of capitalized labels to let you know that something different is going on; and it also centers on a classic “Chosen One” who is burdened by the mantle of savior she carries.
These are classic tropes, but I, like many other genre fiction fans, enjoy that familiarity. Still, I’m always hoping for a subversion, a tornado twist that sucks me into imagination land.
In “Seek the Traitor’s Son,” our Chosen One is Elegy Ahn, the spare heir of the most powerful woman in Cedre. Elegy likes her life, even if it’s filled with danger. See, some time ago, a virus took over the world. The contagion is strange: Everyone who is infected dies, but 50 percent of the people who die come back to life with mysterious cognitive gifts.
After the outbreak, Earth split into two factions: The dominant Talusar, who worship the Fever, believe it is a divine gift, willingly infect themselves with it and consider anyone who does not submit to it a blasphemer; and Cedre, a small country made up of everyone who rejects the virus and the dogma around it. They are, naturally, at war.
Early in the book, Elegy, solidly on the Cedre side, and Rava Vidar, a brutal Talusar general, are summoned by an order of prophets who tell them: One of you will lead your people to victory over the other, and one of the deciding factors involves an unnamed man whom Elegy is prophesied to fall in love with.
Elegy doesn’t want this. But the prophecy spurs the Talusar into action, and so her mother assigns her a Talusaran refugee as a knight and forces her into the fray as the Hope of Cedre.
If that seems like a lot of setup, don’t worry. That’s just the first few chapters. Besides, if you know those dystopian novel tropes, you’ll get the hang of it. Roth gets through the world exposition quickly, and after a rather jarring time skip, the plot takes off, effectively and entertainingly driving readers to the novel’s exhilarating end.
The strength of “Seek the Traitor’s Son” is Roth’s character work. Elegy is a dynamic heroine. She has a lot to lose, and she leads with love, which is reflected in the intense grief she feels for the people she’s lost in the war and the life the prophecy took from her. It’s love that makes her stop running from her destiny and do what she thinks is right to save the people she has left.
Many authors isolate their characters to back them into bad decisions, so it’s refreshing that Roth has given Elegy a community to support her. Her sister Hela in particular is a treat. She’s refreshingly grounded, and often gives a much needed reprieve from the melodrama of the other characters’ lives. (She has an important subplot that has to do with a glowing alien plant, but the real reason you should pay attention to her is that she’s funny, loves her sister so much, has cool friends and listens to gay romance novels.) Hela and Elegy’s unwavering loyalty to each other casts a positive illumination on both characters.
My favorite character is Theren, Elegy’s knight, who is kind and empathetic to everyone but himself. As the obvious romantic lead, his character most diverges from genre standard because of the nuanced depiction of his trauma. He has been so broken by his experiences that he thinks what he can do with his body is all he can offer, and it’s worth nothing to him.
But like I said, I need subversion, and for all the creative world-building, I didn’t quite get it. The most distinct part of the novel was the setting and structure of alternate Earth, as well as the subcultures born from that setting. But after ripping through the novel, I found that those details didn’t provide nourishment for thought, and the general handwaviness of the technology and history of Earth was distractingly easy to nitpick.
I am a greedy reader, so I want my books to have everything: romance, action, an intellectual theme, novel ideas about the future, and character development. “Seek the Traitor’s Son” comes close. The novel is the first in a series, and I’m willing to hold my reservations until I read the next book. Elegy and Theren are worth it.
SEEK THE TRAITOR’S SON | By Veronica Roth | Tor | 416 pp. | $29
Culture
Revolution is the Theme at the Firsts London Book Fair
To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, “Revolution” is the timely theme of the Firsts London book fair, opening Thursday in the contemporary art spaces of the Saatchi Gallery.
The fair, running Thursday through Sunday, will feature 100 dealers’ booths on three floors of the neoclassical, early 19th-century building in the upscale Chelsea neighborhood and will take place at a moment of geopolitical convulsion, if not revolution. It also coincides with a profound change in reading habits: Fewer people read for pleasure, and when they do, more often it is on a screen. And yet some physical books are fetching record prices.
Why is that? Clues can be found at Firsts London, regarded as Britain’s pre-eminent fair devoted to collectible books, maps, manuscripts and ephemera. Dealers will be responding to the revolution theme by showing a curated selection of items that document political upheavals over the centuries.
While the organizers — members of the nonprofit Antiquarian Bookseller’s Association and the International League of Antiquarian Booksellers — have been eager to expand the theme to include material that throws light on revolutions in other realms such as science and social attitudes, the momentousness of the Declaration’s anniversary has spurred dealers to bring items with ties to 18th-century America.
The New York-based dealer James Cummins Bookseller, for instance, will be offering a 1775 London printing of Congress’s declaration of the “Causes and Necessity of Taking Up Arms” against the British authorities. Mostly written by John Dickinson and Thomas Jefferson and published just a year before the Declaration of Independence, the document represents a decisive moment in the colonies’ struggle for self-determination. It is priced at $22,500.
“We’re generalists. We’re bringing a bit of everything,” said Jeremy Markowitz, a specialist on American books at Cummins. “But this year, because of the anniversary, we’re bringing Americana that we otherwise wouldn’t have brought.”
The London dealer Shapero Rare Books will be showing a letter written in January 1797 by Thomas Paine, one of the most influential Founding Fathers, to his friend Col. John Fellows who had served with the American militia during the Revolutionary War. The text reiterates the views of Paine’s open letter to George Washington, urging him to retire from the presidency, fearing that the office might become hereditary. With an asking price of 95,000 pounds, or about $130,000. Paine’s letter to Fellows was written just weeks before Washington stood down in March at the end of his second term, a practice later enshrined in the 22nd Amendment limiting presidents to two terms.
Bernard Quaritch, another London bookseller, will be exhibiting a first edition in book form of “The Federalist Papers,” the celebrated collection of essays written in favor of the new Constitution by Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay from 1787-1788. (These texts are mentioned in Lin-Manuel Miranda’s award-winning musical “Hamilton.”) In its original binding, with the pages uncut and largely unopened, this pioneering work of U.S. political philosophy is priced at £220,000.
The fair, like the United States, has gone through its own process of reinvention. It is the sixth annual edition of Firsts London, but its origins stretch from 1958, when its more traditional forerunner, the London International Antiquarian Book Fair, was founded.
The rebranded Firsts London was initially held at an exhibition space in Battersea Park in 2019, then transferred to the Saatchi in 2021. (There is also Firsts New York and Firsts Hong Kong.) Last year the event attracted an estimated 5,000 visitors over its four days, according to the organizers, and notable sales were made.
“Book fairs are now part of the ‘experience culture.’ In an age where everything is available at a click, fairs have to present themselves in a different way,” the exhibitor Daniel Crouch said.
Crouch will be showing two late-18th-century engraved maps printed on paper of New York by Bernard Ratzer, an engineer commissioned by the British to survey the city and its environs in 1766 and 1767 in case it became a battlefield. Ratzer’s large three-sheet map of the southern end of Manhattan and part of New Jersey and Brooklyn is priced at £240,000; his smaller map of south Manhattan at £25,000. Both date from January 1776, just six months before the Declaration of Independence was adopted in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776.
Other revolutions are also represented. The cover design of Millicent Fawcett ’s classic 1920 Suffragists tract, “The Women’s Victory — and After,” from the collection of the Senate House Library at the University of London, is the poster image for the event and the library is lending the entire pamphlet for display at the fair.
Scientific revolutions are represented by items like a 1976 first edition of Richard Dawkins’s book “The Selfish Gene,” offered at £2,250 by Ashton Rare Books of Market Harborough in Leicestershire, England. Fold the Corner Books in Surrey is offering a handwritten letter by an anonymous British spy describing scenes in Paris in 1791 during the French Revolution, and the dealers at Peter Harrington are bringing a Chinese parade banner from the Cultural Revolution. The banner and the letter are each priced at £750.
While the U.S. document’s anniversary has spurred many exhibitors to show rare 18th-century American items, the organizers stressed the fair’s wider remit.
“We wanted to do something related to our cousins over the water, but something a bit broader than just the American Revolution,” said Tom Lintern-Mole, the chairman of this year’s London fair.
“Revolution is a concept,” he said. “It encompasses everything to do with our world. Printing itself was a revolution. It helps foment revolutions. We like to think that books make history, as well as being artifacts of it.”
In terms of making sales, science fiction and science and fantasy are genres that many traders see as the key growth areas, because of, in great part, recent Hollywood adaptations. “Affluent younger collectors are moving the needle in the market,” said Pom Harrington, owner of Peter Harrington.
Cummins is offering a 1965 first edition of “Dune” for $16,500, while the London-based Foster Books will be asking £22,500 for a 1954-1955 three-volume first edition of “The Lord of the Rings” by J.R.R. Tolkien. It is sumptuously covered in red morocco leather by the binders at Bayntun Riviere.
And with the rise of tech, online sales have increasingly replaced high street transactions, resulting in many rare-book shops closing. Tom W. Ayling, who trades from his home in Oxfordshire and is exhibiting at Firsts London, is one of the most prominent of a cohort of young dealers who sell online and at fairs without the expense of a shop.
“I get almost all my customers through social media,” said Ayling, who has about 298,000 followers on Instagram alone.
Tolkien is a favorite subject for his engaging, regular video posts. Ayling will be bringing a copy of the author’s extremely rare collection of poems, “Songs for the Philologists.” Printed in 1936, only about 15 copies of the collection are known. Ayling is asking £65,000 for this one.
“I put as much content out there as I can to get people interested in book collecting,” Ayling said. “I want to widen the arcane world of book collecting to a mass audience.”
A mass audience collecting — let alone reading — books? That really would be a revolution.
-
New York23 minutes agoFlag With Swastika and Star of David Flown on N.Y.U. Building, Police Say
-
Los Angeles, Ca29 minutes agoEarly morning Montebello fire leaves resident critically injured
-
Detroit, MI53 minutes agoWhat big announcement at DPSCD Hall of Fame Gala could mean for Detroit students
-
San Francisco, CA1 hour agoCasting shade on shadows: S.F. supervisor seeks to bar using shadows to block new housing
-
Dallas, TX1 hour agoDallas Approves $180,500 for New Botham Jean Boulevard Street Signs
-
Miami, FL1 hour agoMiami residents sue over land for Trump presidential library
-
Boston, MA1 hour agoBoston has a secret society built on opium money in ‘The Society’
-
Denver, CO1 hour agoDenver weather: Nearing record highs again