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49ers’ Ricky Pearsall released from hospital after being shot, did not require surgery: Source
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One day after San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall was shot during an attempted robbery in San Francisco, the rookie was released from the hospital Sunday afternoon, the team announced.
Pearsall did not require surgery and remained awake and lucid during his hospital stay, according to a league source. His family was in the room Saturday night, the source said.
“He and his family, along with the entire San Francisco 49ers organization, would like to thank the San Francisco Police Department, emergency medical services, doctors and staff at San Francisco General Hospital,” the 49ers said in a statement Sunday.
Pearsall, 23, was upgraded to “fair condition” earlier Sunday, the hospital announced.
According to police, he was shot in the Union Square area of San Francisco after being approached by a suspect, which ignited a physical confrontation. During the robbery attempt, both Pearsall and the suspect were shot, police said.
On Saturday, police said a 17-year-old suspect from Tracy, Calif. — about 60 miles east of San Francisco — was in custody. SFPD chief William Scott said the suspect’s gun was recovered at the scene.
Scott added it doesn’t appear Pearsall was targeted due to being an NFL player. Scott, who spoke with Pearsall about what happened, said the police believes the suspect was working alone.
Pearsall was drafted by the 49ers with No. 31 pick in this year’s draft. He played three seasons at Arizona State and two years at Florida.
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Culture
Five things we learned about the College Football Playoff race in Week 1
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The first full Saturday of the college football season is in the books, and the College Football Playoff race is already top of mind.
Yes, it’s only one week of games. Yes, we always overreact to Week 1. Yes, there’s a ton of football still to be played. But it’s impossible to ignore the new 12-team CFP because every Football Bowl Subdivision team enters the season with a chance to make the field now. And even one week of action was enough to inform some takeaways that will impact the CFP race the rest of the way.
Here are five Playoff-adjacent lessons from Week 1.
1. Brace yourself for some blowouts in December.
Lopsided results were a frequent concern in the 10 years of the four-team CFP. Whether in the semifinals (Alabama vs. everyone) or the national championship game (Georgia 65, TCU 7), several Playoff matchups turned into blowouts because the top couple of teams in the sport were so much better than everyone else. Georgia and Clemson’s neutral-site opener in Atlanta doubled as a test for a 12-team era, as the No. 1 ranked SEC favorite took on one of the top teams in the ACC, ranked No. 14.
The result: a 34-3 beatdown in which the Bulldogs outscored the Tigers by 25 in the second half. Georgia looks as good as everyone thought it would be. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs not reaching the Playoff for the third time in four years, whether as the SEC champion or as one of the seven at-large selections. Georgia has a tough schedule, traveling to Alabama in Week 4, to Texas in mid-October and to Ole Miss in November, but any SEC contender with two losses is still likely to make the field. That fact may one day take some of the shine off of these high-profile nonconference regular season tests, but that’s the price being paid to ensure more universal championship access in an expanded Playoff. And if this Georgia team gets matched up with another ACC team, a Big 12 team or a Group of 5 team in December’s early rounds, the talent disparity could lead to ugly final margins like we saw on Saturday.
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Clemson, meanwhile, exhibited all the same offensive problems it did a year ago. Georgia may be the best team in the country, but the Tigers again don’t look like a national championship contender based on Saturday’s effort. Still, the 12-team format means no Power 4 conference team’s season is done after Week 1. All Clemson has to do is win the ACC to guarantee itself a spot. And that still seems doable because…
2. Miami looks fantastic, but the rest of the ACC does not.
While the ACC league office battles Florida State and Clemson in court amid the two members’ ongoing efforts to break free from the conference’s grant of rights agreement, it would’ve behooved the ACC to get off to a strong start on the field and keep the realignment noise in the background. The league entered the season with no shortage of optimism thanks to seven teams in the AP poll’s top 30 (three of which landed just outside the Top 25).
Instead, it’s been a rough first week for what was perceived to be the top of the league. Defending champion and preseason favorite Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in Ireland in Week 0, Clemson got shellacked by Georgia on Saturday, popular dark horse pick Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt, and preseason No. 24 NC State needed a fourth-quarter comeback to escape Western Carolina on Thursday.
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But then there’s Miami! The Hurricanes lived up to their offseason hype with a dominant 41-17 win at Florida. Transfer quarterback Cam Ward looked spectacular, as did Miami’s other transfer additions. That is getting what you paid for. It’s only one week, but Miami looked like the best team in the league by a wide margin. And with a schedule that avoids Clemson and draws Virginia Tech and Florida State at home, Miami will suddenly be a very popular pick to make the CFP.
The Hurricanes now have a 42 percent chance to make the Playoff and a 23 percent chance to win the ACC, per Austin Mock’s projections model, while Clemson and Florida State have each fallen to a 20 percent chance to make the CFP. Beyond Miami, the rest of the league will need to play much better if the conference wants to find a second CFP bid.
ACC title and Playoff odds (Sept. 1)
Find all CFP projections here
3. Penn State looks like a real contender.
When the CFP expanded to 12 teams, Penn State looked to be the biggest beneficiary: The Nittany Lions finished ranked in the top 12 six times since 2016 but never made the four-team CFP field.
That feeling is even stronger after Penn State’s dominant 34-12 win at West Virginia. The defense was its normal physical and stout self, but the offense was explosive, and dare I say exciting, after drawing meme-worthy ridicule for its unwillingness to attack vertically last year. The Nittany Lions had two completions of at least 50 yards on Saturday after having just five all of last season. Quarterback Drew Allar finished 11 of 17 passing for 216 yards and three touchdowns, plus another 44 yards on the ground. He looked composed and sharp on the road in a way he didn’t last year.
It’s early, but Penn State looked like a team that might just not make the CFP, but win a game or two. The Nittany Lions now have a 74 percent chance to make the CFP, per our model, up from 67 percent before Week 1.
4. Notre Dame has an inside path to the Playoff already.
As an independent, the Fighting Irish don’t have a conference championship to play for, and because the top four seeds in the expanded CFP go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, even a Notre Dame team ranked No. 1 at the end of the season would not get a first-round bye. Still, the additional at-large bids available in the expanded field greatly help the Irish’s chances of making the Playoff, and after a season-opening 23-13 win against Texas A&M in College Station, Notre Dame should already be heavily favored to qualify, with a 72 percent to make it, according to The Athletic’s model.
It’s very likely Notre Dame will be favored in every game left on its schedule: The toughest remaining games are probably at Georgia Tech, at home against Florida State and at USC to close the year. The Irish can probably afford to lose one of those and still make the CFP field at 11-1. Marcus Freeman’s team has Playoff expectations this year, and Saturday’s win was a massive step toward that goal. A consequential Week 1 win makes their margin for error that much wider.
5. The Group of 5 favorites escaped some scares, with big Power 4 tests ahead.
The new stakes for the Group of 5 were made clear immediately when Boise State, the preseason favorite for the CFP spot reserved for the G5’s highest-ranked conference champion, trailed Georgia Southern on the road in the fourth quarter. The Broncos rallied to win 56-45 on the back of 377 rushing yards between Ashton Jeanty and Sire Gaines, retaining their Mountain West front-runner status and juicing Jeanty’s draft stock. Next up is a trip to Oregon, which needed to hold on to survive an upset bid from FCS Idaho.
Sun Belt favorite Appalachian State led East Tennessee State by just seven points deep into the third quarter but eventually won 38-10. Next up for the Mountaineers: a trip to Clemson.
Meanwhile, defending Conference USA champion Liberty trailed FCS Campbell deep into the second quarter and only led by 10 points entering the fourth but eventually won 41-24. AAC favorite Memphis, for its part, had no trouble during a 40-0 win against FCS North Alabama. The Tigers travel to Florida State in two weeks. The strength of these teams’ and their conferences’ resumes will be under scrutiny all fall.
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‘No-brainer’: Colts’ Kylen Granson to wear Guardian Cap in regular season
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INDIANAPOLIS — Indianapolis Colts tight end Kylen Granson wore a Guardian Cap over his helmet during the preseason and plans to continue doing so in the regular season to further protect his brain from long-term damage.
“At one point people thought seatbelts were f—ing stupid,” Granson told The Athletic on Thursday. “Why wouldn’t I (wear it)? Just because it looks silly? I feel like health and safety is more important than aesthetics.”
After Granson’s comments went viral, the four-year pro explained his position even further in an Instagram video Friday. Granson and hundreds of other NFL players began wearing Guardian Caps, essentially soft-shell pads attached to their helmets, when the NFL mandated certain position groups wear them in practice ahead of the 2022 season.
He’s liked the results so far, and now that the league will allow players to wear them in games, Granson believes it is a “no-brainer” for him to further protect his brain.
“There’s no amount of aesthetic that could outweigh what a TBI (traumatic brain injury) could do to you,” Granson said via Instagram. “And one of the more unknown things is that not only is it the big hits that you have to worry about, it’s the culmination of a bunch of little hits.”
He compared someone’s brain to Jell-O, explaining every time a football player takes a hit and their brain shakes like Jell-O, it may not seem like much in the moment but it could have a dire or even deadly effect down the line. Granson also noted hundreds of these little brain shakes can occur from OTAs and training camp in the offseason, a three-game preseason, a 17-game regular season and even more games if a team reaches the playoffs.
Granson, 26, suffered a concussion in a Week 6 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars last year and was sidelined for the next two games.
However, Granson said he would still wear a Guardian Cap even if he hadn’t sustained a concussion. The tragic stories of Pro Football Hall of Famer Junior Seau and former New England Patriots tight end and convicted murderer Aaron Hernandez, who both died by suicide and were later diagnosed with CTE, serve as sobering reminders for Granson.
“I want to live forever,” Granson told The Athletic, partly joking. “I don’t want anyone to dig me up after I’m gone and check my brain.”
Granson elaborated even more on Instagram, saying he wants to be able to remember the first dance at his forthcoming wedding “30 years from now” and his future child’s first steps. But aside from his own wishes, he believes it’s his responsibility to set an example for the millions of children who look up to NFL players.
“I want to inspire kids to think that health and safety is also cool,” Granson said on Instagram. “You can do cool things out on the football field and still wear a Guardian Cap. I want my (future) children to wear helmets when they ride a bike. … Because there’s no amount of cool that would be worth walking into a hospital room and your child’s in a vegetative state because they weren’t wearing a helmet. Because they didn’t want to look dumb.”
Since 2022, the NFL reports Guardian Caps have resulted in a 50 percent decrease in concussions among players who’ve worn them in practice.
NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller told ESPN earlier this year in addition to Guardian Caps, “there are new helmets this year that provide as much — if not more — protection than a different helmet model paired with a Guardian Cap.”
Ultimately, it is still the player’s choice, and it certainly makes for a hot topic in NFL locker rooms. Some Colts players, who are supportive of Granson wearing a Guardian Cap, are vehemently against wearing one themselves because of how it looks. Granson is one of at least two Indianapolis players who will don the added head gear regardless, as safety Rodney Thomas II told The Athletic he plans to wear a Guardian Cap during the regular season, too.
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is arguably the most prominent NFL player to wear a Guardian Cap during the preseason, though he was noncommittal about wearing it in the regular season.
Granson said via Instagram he loves football with all of his heart, but it’s not worth putting his life or his family’s life at risk because he’s afraid of being ridiculed or perceived as soft.
“It’s bigger than me. It’s bigger than just looking cool,” Granson said. “And if I can do the same things on the field, and be safe at the same time, why would I not want that? As a fan, why would you not want that? Some of your best players could play for longer and protect their health.”
Required reading
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Culture
2024 NFL win total projections for all 32 teams: Experts react to our model
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The Detroit Lions have never won 10 or more games in consecutive seasons. Will that change this year?
Can anything keep the two-time defending Kansas City Chiefs from nabbing the AFC’s top seed? Will Jayden Daniels’ arrival lift the Washington Commanders? Could Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos or Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers land among the league’s bottom feeders?
Let’s go to our experts to answer these questions, with the help of analytics and our eyes on the beat.
After running 10,000 simulations of the 2024 season, Austin Mock’s NFL betting model has calculated an expected win total for every team, from the San Francisco 49ers (11.4 wins) to the Washington Commanders (5.9). (You can see the AFC teams here and the NFC here.) Now, our beat writers are here to answer: Is the model too high, too low or just right regarding the team you cover?
San Francisco 49ers
Win total: 11.4
This feels just right. The 49ers won 13 games in 2022 and 12 games in 2023. Factor in the exhaustion from repeated postseason runs (the 49ers have played 60 games over the past three seasons), and another decline in win total this season would make sense. But the Niners, assuming there’s a resolution to the contractual situations involving Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk, might’ve actually upgraded their roster this offseason. Seven members of their 2024 draft class made the 53-man roster, including a starter at what had been the offense’s weakest position, right guard. And quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to improve with experience. The 49ers’ defense, coming off a down year, has seen a talent overhaul, which could help them stay in the 11- to 12-win range. — David Lombardi
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Kansas City Chiefs
Win total: 11.3
Projecting the Chiefs to have the best record in the AFC is logical. But they could have more than 11 victories, especially if they sweep their two-game home series to start the season against the Ravens and the Bengals. The Chiefs are clearly favored to win their ninth consecutive AFC West crown. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have dominated the division, and the Chiefs have arguably the league’s best kicker in Harrison Butker, who usually gives them a critical advantage in tight games. The biggest concern is if their defense slides back in the rankings with L’Jarius Sneed, Willie Gay and Mike Edwards no longer on the roster. — Nate Taylor
Detroit Lions
Win total: 10.5
The case for the Lions exceeding 10.5 wins is that they won 12 games a year ago with a young roster and obvious holes. This offseason, they bolstered their secondary, added D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport along the defensive line and expect their young players to take a step forward. At the same time, though, the Lions face a first-place schedule, and the division is tougher on paper. There’s a world in which the team is more complete overall but wins fewer games. But I have the Lions at 12 wins again, so it’s a touch low, in my opinion. — Colton Pouncy
Baltimore Ravens
Win total: 10.2
If you could guarantee Lamar Jackson will play 15 games or more, I’d say 10.2 wins is a bit low, simply because of how good Baltimore has been in the regular season with a healthy Jackson. However, you can’t do that, so 10.2 looks just right to me. The Ravens have a solid and deep team, but they play a really tough schedule and they have legitimate questions in two key areas: offensive line and edge rush. Those factors need to be considered. — Jeff Zrebiec
Cincinnati Bengals
Win total: 10.2
The Bengals had a fully healthy Joe Burrow for just five-and-a-half games last year. Their defense looked nothing like its previous self without Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. They played one of the toughest schedules in the league. Very little went right. They still won nine games. A projection of 10.2 is solid, but I’d be more comfortable going over than under. They have questions, no doubt, but they added veteran safeties, the schedule appears dramatically easier, the offensive line is as solid as Burrow has played behind. As long as Burrow is healthy (all signs are good) with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins outside, 10 wins feels like the floor. — Paul Dehner Jr.
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Win total: 10.2
Mock writes, “Ultimately, this division comes down to how well Eagles QB Jalen Hurts plays.” I agree. And that’s why I still feel comfortable about my 12-5 prediction from the spring. Hurts was noticeably more polished in training camp. He was decisive, effective and dangerous on deep throws. The Eagles’ wealth of offensive talent could produce, at the very least, a top-five offense if Hurts can command this system properly. Owner Jeffrey Lurie has demonstrated patience with his head coaches so long as there’s confidence in a competitive path forward. But it’s worth wondering whether a 10-win season would be considered a regression under Nick Sirianni. — Brooks Kubena
Win total: 10.0
Despite Dallas’ three consecutive 12-win seasons, the model’s 10-win projection is right on line with what most would expect from the Cowboys. After winning the NFC East, the Cowboys have a tough first-place schedule, which includes games against the Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Eagles (twice), Texans and Bengals. If they remain mostly healthy in all of the key spots, anywhere between nine wins and 12 wins seems like a fair projection. — Saad Yousuf
Win total: 9.8
Mock has the Packers’ win total as the fifth-highest in the NFC. I think the Packers will win 10 or 11 games, so it’s just about right and, if anything, a tick low. Jordan Love and company won’t need the first half of the season to work out the kinks of unfamiliarity, and new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley seems to have his unit firing on all cylinders. The biggest question marks are offensive line depth, the kicker position and youth in the secondary. Shore up at least two of those three and the Packers will be a legitimate title contender. — Matt Schneidman
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Win total: 9.7
This seems just about right. A team led by Josh Allen in his prime should always be taken seriously. I’m sure, even with several questions about the Bills in 2024, Allen is why they have the AFC’s fourth-highest win total. But the questions are legitimate. The defense could take a real step back due to cap-cleaning offseason turnover and a long-term injury to linebacker Matt Milano. Plus, it’s a new offense without wideout Stefon Diggs or center Mitch Morse. The Bills could struggle with a tough early schedule, but don’t rule out a second-half surge once all the new pieces jell just in time for the playoffs. — Joe Buscaglia
![](https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2024/08/29170117/GettyImages-1802941482-scaled.jpg)
Even with Aaron Rodgers’ healthy return to the Jets, Josh Allen’s team still has a slight edge on its division rival. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
Win total: 9.6
It’s hard to argue with this projection — and fascinating how tightly the AFC East teams are grouped. The Jets clearly have the most talented roster of the three from top to bottom, and if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, there’s no reason they should fall short of 10 wins. They had a top-five defense in each of the last two seasons, and the unit is still mostly intact (and could be even better if/when Haason Reddick finally reports). The offense should be vastly improved. Rodgers is obviously a major upgrade over Zach Wilson and last year’s rotation of backups, Breece Hall is fully healthy, Garrett Wilson is ready to break out and GM Joe Douglas did a good job rebuilding the offensive line this offseason. — Zack Rosenblatt
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Win total: 9.5
This matches the over/under from BetMGM, so the experts are aligned here. However, the Dolphins are coming off of an 11-win season, and with a light schedule to start the campaign, I lean toward the over here. I expect coach Mike McDaniel to field another offensive juggernaut while unleashing some new wrinkles that most defenses won’t be able to handle. I’m concerned about Miami’s defensive line without Christian Wilkins but also love the system new DC Anthony Weaver is implementing. I think Miami gets off to another hot start but will have to fight to get to 10 wins against what looks like a very tough closing slate (at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets). — Jim Ayello
Win total: 9.4
If the Falcons don’t win at least 10 games, they’ll be disappointed, and they should be. They said they were ready to compete “at the highest level” when they fired Arthur Smith. They guaranteed Kirk Cousins $100 million. They traded for Matthew Judon and signed Justin Simmons. Eighty-one-year-old owner Arthur Blank is pushing all his chips in and making an expensive bet that this team is better than 9.4 wins. — Josh Kendall
Houston Texans
Win total: 9.0
The Texans were a surprise success story last season, going 10-7 and winning the AFC South. Mock projects them for nine wins this season, but I think they could again surpass that. C.J. Stroud has a season of experience under his belt. Bobby Slowik did well as a first-time play caller but will likely find ways to get even more out of Stroud this season, given the additional weapons (including Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon) acquired this offseason. Adding pass rusher Danielle Hunter in free agency should help both Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans’ defense as a whole. DeMeco Ryans’ squad has a good shot at another 10-win season and a return to the playoffs. — Mike Jones
Win total: 8.9
Nine wins feels about right for the Chargers. I had them at 10 in my prediction in May. Consider the extra game the Jim Harbaugh bump. The players are bought in. Harbaugh has led dramatic turnarounds in all of his head-coaching stops — San Diego University, Stanford, the San Francisco 49ers and Michigan. I believe he will have the same impact in Los Angeles. And, of course, the Chargers still have one of the best quarterbacks in football in Justin Herbert, who looked great in practice last week after returning from his plantar fascia injury. — Daniel Popper
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Win total: 8.8
This feels a little low for a team that exceeded expectations in 2023 and added more resources to both sides of the ball. Injuries will be a major factor early, with the Rams returning multiple key players from absence: Jonah Jackson (shoulder), Puka Nacua (knee) and Darious Williams (hamstring). They should get starting right tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle) back either in Week 1 or by Week 3. Starting left tackle Alaric Jackson (ankle, suspension) will be back in Week 3. No, there’s no Aaron Donald — but a depleted Rams team won 10 games last season. They will go as quarterback Matthew Stafford goes. — Jourdan Rodrigue
Cleveland Browns
Win total: 8.7
The Browns have a much higher ceiling than 8.7 wins, and internally, they’d say the roster is better than last year’s version that went 11-5 despite having to play five different quarterbacks. But just one quarterback matters in the present and future, and Deshaun Watson just had an unimpressive training camp while coming off of shoulder surgery. He hasn’t played a live snap in almost 10 months and has played 12 games in the last three years. The Browns have a lot of talent, but can they count on Watson? I’d say eight or nine wins feels right. — Zac Jackson
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Win total: 8.2
The Saints entered last year as a no-brainer favorite to win the NFC South with one of the league’s easiest schedules. They only won nine games and missed the playoffs. Their schedule doesn’t seem much tougher this season, but the NFC South improved around them and New Orleans didn’t grow enough along the roster this offseason. These are legitimate reasons as to why the Saints aren’t the favorites in a still seemingly weak division. So an 8.2-win projection feels fair. These projections also indicate the Saints would miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, which would likely mean a new coach and new quarterback for the 2025 campaign. — Larry Holder
Win total: 8.2
Seattle went 9-8 thanks to narrow Week 18 victories in each of Pete Carroll’s final two seasons. Mike Macdonald inherited much of the same roster, so even if his new coaching staff is better, this projection feels accurate. The NFC West is a tough division, and Seattle has legitimate questions at inside linebacker and offensive line. Plus there might naturally be some growing pains along the way with an entirely new coaching staff led by a first-year head coach and first-year offensive coordinator. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
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Win total: 8.1
The Bears trail the Lions (10.5) and Packers (9.8), but a nine- or 10-win season doesn’t feel like a reach, either. The Bears beat the division-winning Lions last year — and coach Matt Eberflus’ defense should be better this season. Quarterback Caleb Williams will have his rookie moments, but he’s surrounded by talent with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett and running back D’Andre Swift. They’ll all help with Williams’ growing pains. — Adam Jahns
Win total: 8.1
I think this is a 10-win team. And if the Jaguars play closer to the version that went 15-5 from late 2022 to early 2023, they might have 12-win potential. Of course, a lot will have to go right for that to materialize. My biggest concern is the Jags start at the Dolphins, return home for the Browns, then visit the Bills and Texans. If they aren’t on point and fall to 0-4, there’s no telling what that could do to their confidence. But barring a catastrophe of that magnitude, they’ve got enough winnable games over the final three months of the season to exceed the projected 8.1 wins. — Jeff Howe
Pittsburgh Steelers
Win total: 7.6
Mike Tomlin has been the model of consistency, never finishing with a losing record in 17 seasons as coach. The biggest threat to that streak is one of the NFL’s most challenging schedules. The Steelers play in arguably the league’s most competitive division. The backstretch is brutal, with three games — at Baltimore, at Philadelphia and vs. Kansas City — in 10 days in December. Still, it would be hard to bet against Tomlin’s history, making the 7.6 win projection a little low. The remade offensive line and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith should help. If Tomlin can get to .500 or better with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB, he should be able to do it with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. — Mike DeFabo
Win total: 7.5
The Colts won nine games last year primarily with backup QB Gardner Minshew at the helm. Their schedule is tougher this season, but the belief internally is that a healthy Anthony Richardson can elevate the entire team. I agree that Richardon’s dual-threat abilities make him capable of leading Indianapolis to more wins than Mock’s projected 7.5, though the inexperienced secondary could be a big weakness. Assuming the back end doesn’t completely fall apart, I’ll pencil the Colts in for 10 wins and their first playoff berth since 2020. — James Boyd
![](https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2024/08/29165433/GettyImages-2168628828-scaled.jpg)
The Colts have their sights set high with Anthony Richardson back and healthy. (Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
Win total: 7.5
Internal expectations and fan expectations are much greater than this. According to Mock’s model, the Bucs are 11th in the NFC and third in the NFC South behind the Saints and Falcons. The Bucs won nine last year, and the general perception is they improved in the offseason with the additions of Jordan Whitehead, Graham Barton and Jalen McMillan. Whether they improve or slide might depend largely on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had a breakout year in 2023 and is adjusting to new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has replaced Dave Canales. — Dan Pompei
Win total: 7.3
The quarterback selection of Gardner Minshew over Aidan O’Connell didn’t move the needle much, so it’s no surprise that Mock has the Raiders at 7.3 wins, just clearing the Vegas over-under line of 6.5 wins. The defense should be very good, Davante Adams is still one of the best offensive players in the league, and first-round pick Brock Bowers should have a big impact at tight end. Problems could arise if there are any injuries, as the Raiders are not deep and new general manager Tom Telesco is taking the long view with salary-cap space. And if the Raiders get off to a slow start, Adams might call for a trade, so … 7.3 sounds good, but there is some shaky ground. — Vic Tafur
Win total: 7.1
Local optimism is high. And it should be. Kyler Murray is healthy. The talent around him is better. The Cardinals are trending in the right direction. But coming off a four-win first season under coach Jonathan Gannon, 7.1 wins in Year 2 sounds right. GM Monti Ossenfort inherited a significant rebuilding job, and the worst thing he could’ve done was try to do too much too soon. This is the next step. Maximize Murray. Improve defensively. Develop depth. Learn how to win. Reversals can happen quickly, but for the Cardinals, there are no shortcuts. — Doug Haller
Win total: 6.8
There are days when Mock’s projection feels low — and other days when it feels high. Is it underrating Brian Flores’ defense? Is it accurately assessing quarterback Sam Darnold? Maybe yes, maybe no. If you think it’s too high, it’s probably because of the schedule. The Vikings open with the Giants, then face a gauntlet: 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets, Lions and Rams. Those six teams have incredible talent and high-end coaching. If you see 6.8 wins as too low, you are probably looking at Darnold’s situation alongside Justin Jefferson and head coach Kevin O’Connell and thinking an explosive offense is in store. Both viewpoints make sense. Anyone who thinks they know how it’ll play out is overconfident. — Alec Lewis
Win total: 6.8
This is on the low side of the Titans’ range, but six or seven wins is certainly possible, especially with the tough NFC North on the schedule. This is a very difficult team to project considering the changes and unknowns. A first-time head coach (Brian Callahan) with first-time coordinators (Nick Holz, Dennard Wilson) will rely heavily on draft picks plugged into key roles immediately (left tackle JC Latham, defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat), and hope key veteran acquisitions (L’Jarius Sneed, Calvin Ridley, Chidobe Awuzie, Tony Pollard, Quandre Diggs) have best-case seasons. Oh, and the Titans hope they have a franchise quarterback in Will Levis. They just don’t know yet. — Joe Rexrode
Win total: 6.7
It’s wild to say about a team with a projection of only 6.7 wins, but this seems too high. The Patriots went 4-13 a year ago, parted with the greatest coach of all time and brought back a remarkably similar roster to last season. Drake Maye won’t be starting at quarterback, the wide receiver and offensive line groups both rank among the league’s worst, and the defense got worse in recent weeks after losing its top two pass rushers (Christian Barmore was diagnosed with blood clots and is out indefinitely, while Matthew Judon was traded to the Falcons). — Chad Graff
![go-deeper](https://cdn.theathletic.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=128,height=128,fit=cover,format=auto/app/uploads/2024/08/29120014/GettyImages-2155206922-1024x683.jpg)
GO DEEPER
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New York Giants
Win total: 6.7
This is right on target. The Giants won six games last year and, yes, there was a Murphy’s Law element involved with so many injuries to top players. But it’s not as simple as expecting improvement if the team manages to stay healthier. First, quarterback Daniel Jones has a lengthy injury history, so health isn’t a given. Additionally, the Giants are without some top players from last season’s roster (Saquon Barkley, Xavier McKinney, Leonard Williams). They traded for Brian Burns and drafted Malik Nabers in the first round with the expectation they’ll be game-changers on both sides of the ball. But there are enough question marks with the roster to temper expectations. — Dan Duggan
Win total: 6.4
The model was not kind to the Panthers, who sit ahead of only Denver (6.0) and Washington (5.9). But it feels about right, considering I picked the Panthers to go 6-11 when schedules were released in May. It’s reasonable to think Bryce Young will take a step forward in a new offensive system and with improved blockers and playmakers. But with sizable holes at cornerback and edge rusher, the defense could take a step back. — Joseph Person
Denver Broncos
Win total: 6.0
This is too low. In 16 seasons as an NFL head coach, Sean Payton has never won fewer than seven games. The Broncos went 8-9 last season, then jettisoned a handful of veterans like Russell Wilson, Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy. But Wilson’s replacement at quarterback, Bo Nix, looks more ready to run Payton’s offense than I initially expected. A personnel overhaul in the front seven will make the Broncos better against the run. Many players are in Year 2 in their schemes, and it’s been easy to see the impact of that continuity in training camp. It’s fair to sell the Broncos as a playoff team, but seven wins feels like the floor to me. — Nick Kosmider
Washington Commanders
Win total: 5.9
The broad oddsmakers set the win total at 6.5, a number that many Jayden Daniels believers find shockingly low. Mock’s model went even lower with a league-worst 5.9 wins. What the projections cannot easily consider is the Commanders’ renewed competitive spirit under coach Dan Quinn. Daniels’ upside and more weekly consistency should push Washington above Mock’s number, but it might take injury and bounce-of-the-ball luck (and better-than-expected CB and OT play) to reach seven wins or sniff .500. — Ben Standig
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Ryan Kang, Perry Knotts, Jaiden Tripi / Getty Images)
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