Crypto
Will Bitcoin Repeat History? On-Chain Data Suggests a Q4 Breakout: CryptoQuant
Historical data shows bitcoin (BTC) performing well in the fourth quarters of previous bull cycles, especially in halving years. Current on-chain data indicates that the leading cryptocurrency is following previous patterns and is on track to another remarkable Q4.
A report by the market analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that bitcoin’s price rally in the coming weeks could be sustainable because demand for the asset is recovering and growing at the fastest monthly pace since April.Bitcoin in Positive Seasonal Performance
During bitcoin’s seasonal performance in the halving years of 2012, 2016, and 2020, the cryptocurrency increased by 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively, in their fourth quarters. CryptoQuant analysts found that BTC is behaving very similarly to patterns seen in 2016 and 2020.
This positive performance is driven by the spike in apparent demand for BTC, which recorded a monthly growth of 177,000 BTC last week, its largest reading since April. Apparent demand refers to the difference between BTC production (mining issuance) and changes in its inventory (supply inactive for more than a year). This metric reached 496,000 BTC in early April, shortly after BTC rallied above $72,000 in March.
The surge in this metric preceded an over 5% rally in the price of BTC. The cryptocurrency touched a ten-week high of $68,100 earlier this week and was changing hands at $67,900 at the time of writing.Demand Is Growing
Furthermore, the rise in BTC demand can be seen in the increased purchases of United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These products have been netbuyingroughly 8,000 BTC recently, their highest daily purchase since July 21.
Large bitcoin investors (whales) are also expanding their holdings, with their balancesgrowingby 670,000 BTC yearly. Additionally, the growth of whale holdings stands above its 365-day moving average, which is considered a positive sign for prices.
CryptoQuant says the expansion of bitcoin’s apparent demand is necessary for BTC to surge sustainably to record highs. Historical data shows how positive and growing apparent demand led BTC price rallies in 2020-2021 and earlier this year. Apparent demand in those cases peaked at 490,000-550,000 BTC; however, current demand stands at 177,000 BTC. Hence, there is more room for growth.
Crypto
Report Shows Massive Increase in Iranian Bitcoin Adoption Amid Nationwide Unrest
A new report from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis indicates there has been a massive increase in Bitcoin adoption in Iran over the past month, as the country deals with nationwide unrest and protests. The report specifically looks at the increase in withdrawals from crypto exchanges to unknown Bitcoin addresses, which indicates the local population is avoiding centralized financial infrastructure in the country in favor of the decentralized, peer-to-peer digital cash system.
In terms of specifics, the report shows a 262% increase in the amount of withdrawals valued at more than $10,000 into what are thought to be self-custodial bitcoin wallets since the nationwide protests began. According to the report, reasons for the increased interest in self-custodial bitcoin include the collapse in value in the Iranian rial and the potential increased need for citizens to operate outside of government-controlled financial channels.
The report also indicates spikes in Iranian crypto activity were seen during other major domestic and geopolitical events such as the Kerman bombings in January 2024, Iran’s missile strikes against Israel in October 2024, and the 12-day war. Nobitex, which is by far Iran’s largest and most popular exchange, was also hacked for $90 million during the 12-day war.
“This pattern of increased BTC withdrawals during times of heightened instability reflects a global trend we’ve observed in other regions experiencing war, economic turmoil, or government crackdowns,” says the report.
To Chainalysis’s point, this is not the first time a sharp increase in Bitcoin adoption has been noticed in a country dealing with some sort of crisis. In the past, Chainalysis has issued reports involving increased adoption in Ukraine amid war with Russia, Argentina and Venezuela’s respective currency devaluations, and more.
More recently, countries like Venezuela and Russia have used bitcoin and stablecoins like Tether’s USDT to avoid economic sanctions. According to another recent report from Chainalysis, this sort of sanctions avoidance was behind crypto’s record year of $154 billion worth of illicit financial use.
Unrest has persisted in Iran since late December, as protesters are fed up with the devaluation of the Iranian rial and other economic hardships. These grievances are compounded by longer-term issues such as corruption, repression, and general government mismanagement. In this way, the use of Bitcoin itself can also be seen as a form of protest where people are simply opting out of the traditional financial system.
Ironically, the Iranian regime has also been found to have used crypto for avoiding sanctions and laundering funds. In fact, the same Chainalysis report just released also indicates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accounts for roughly half of all crypto activity taking place in Iran, which is estimated at $7.78 billion. A recent report from TRM Labs also indicated two crypto exchanges in the United Kingdom were effectively fronts for the Iranian regime, and another past report from Elliptic shows Iran has been involved in bitcoin mining for purposes of monetizing their energy resources.
This situation illustrates the conundrum for authoritarian regimes around the world when it comes to Bitcoin, as the features that make it useful for the regime to avoid restrictions in the US-controlled global banking system also enable it to be used for the local population to gain greater financial freedom.
Bitcoin is not the only technology that has proven helpful for Iranians during the protests, as the existence of Starlink is one of the only reasons information has been able to get out of the country amid government-imposed internet blackouts. While mesh-networking based Bitchat has seen increased adoption in other countries dealing with turmoil recently, a forked version of the app called Noghteha has gained notoriety in Iran. Although, there has been controversy with Noghteha due to its closed source aspects and collection of donations.
Crypto
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