Crypto
Will Bitcoin Repeat History? On-Chain Data Suggests a Q4 Breakout: CryptoQuant
Historical data shows bitcoin (BTC) performing well in the fourth quarters of previous bull cycles, especially in halving years. Current on-chain data indicates that the leading cryptocurrency is following previous patterns and is on track to another remarkable Q4.
A report by the market analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that bitcoin’s price rally in the coming weeks could be sustainable because demand for the asset is recovering and growing at the fastest monthly pace since April.Bitcoin in Positive Seasonal Performance
During bitcoin’s seasonal performance in the halving years of 2012, 2016, and 2020, the cryptocurrency increased by 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively, in their fourth quarters. CryptoQuant analysts found that BTC is behaving very similarly to patterns seen in 2016 and 2020.
This positive performance is driven by the spike in apparent demand for BTC, which recorded a monthly growth of 177,000 BTC last week, its largest reading since April. Apparent demand refers to the difference between BTC production (mining issuance) and changes in its inventory (supply inactive for more than a year). This metric reached 496,000 BTC in early April, shortly after BTC rallied above $72,000 in March.
The surge in this metric preceded an over 5% rally in the price of BTC. The cryptocurrency touched a ten-week high of $68,100 earlier this week and was changing hands at $67,900 at the time of writing.Demand Is Growing
Furthermore, the rise in BTC demand can be seen in the increased purchases of United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These products have been netbuyingroughly 8,000 BTC recently, their highest daily purchase since July 21.
Large bitcoin investors (whales) are also expanding their holdings, with their balancesgrowingby 670,000 BTC yearly. Additionally, the growth of whale holdings stands above its 365-day moving average, which is considered a positive sign for prices.
CryptoQuant says the expansion of bitcoin’s apparent demand is necessary for BTC to surge sustainably to record highs. Historical data shows how positive and growing apparent demand led BTC price rallies in 2020-2021 and earlier this year. Apparent demand in those cases peaked at 490,000-550,000 BTC; however, current demand stands at 177,000 BTC. Hence, there is more room for growth.
Crypto
New law regulates cryptocurrency kiosks in Wisconsin to protect against scams
WAUSAU, Wis. (WSAW) – A Wisconsin bill creating regulatory requirements for cryptocurrency kiosks is now law, aiming to protect people from scams involving the machines.
The Wood County Sheriff’s Department has been investigating scams involving cryptocurrency kiosks for more than three years and helped craft the new law.
Several people from the Wood County Sheriff’s Department have been testifying in Madison and educating people about these scams.
“And that’s something that is always an important part, but when you can get something out statutorily to protect people, that’s even better,” Becker said.
Daily limits and victim reimbursement
The law puts $1,000 daily transaction limits on the machines and requires machine operators to reimburse victims who report scams to law enforcement within 30 days.
Sheriff Shawn Becker said the department began investigating after receiving a complaint from a citizen who was scammed out of thousands.
“When we got the initial complaint from one of our citizens came in and was scammed $9,000. And then we were, these crypto ATMs were new to there and new to the country,” Becker said.
The department began seizing cash from the machines after people were scammed, holding it as evidence. They would return money to victims, but cryptocurrency companies sued over the practice.
“So we had to change our tactics and we would still serve the warrant, but now we hold that cash here at the sheriff’s department until we get a court order,” Becker said. “I think it really made a difference to get where we’re at now.”
New requirements for operators
The law requires operators to add warning labels to kiosks. Cryptocurrency kiosks also have to be more than five feet away from an ATM.
Kiosk operators must take reasonable steps to detect and prevent fraud. They need to provide notices of virtual kiosks locations to law enforcement before the first transaction on that machine.
“I’m very proud of our department, our investigators that working together with the legal justice system to be part of something that has changed and protected people from being scammed,” Becker said.
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Crypto
Op-Ed by Corbin Fraser, CEO of Bitcoin.com: The Bitcoin President Is Making Our Case for Us
What a difference eighteen months makes.
As I write this, a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is hours old. Whether it holds is anyone’s guess. The war that the U.S. and Israel launched on February 28 has already killed American service members, destroyed universities and elementary schools, closed the Strait of Hormuz, and sent shockwaves through every market on the planet. The president who promised to end wars threatened, in his own words, that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Iran’s ambassador at the United Nations called it incitement to genocide. Experts are debating whether the targeting of bridges, railways, and power grids constitutes war crimes. Children in Tehran are dead.
This is not what we signed up for.
The Bitcoin community did not coalesce around a political candidate so that he could become the latest patron of the military-industrial complex. The very machine, by the way, that Bitcoin was conceptually designed to defund. Satoshi’s whitepaper was published in the wreckage of 2008, a year when the Federal Reserve printed billions to bail out banks while governments spent trillions waging wars most citizens never asked for. Bitcoin was, from its genesis block, a protest against exactly this: the unchecked power of states to debase currency in service of violence.
I want to be clear about something: the crypto community’s natural disgust for war is not a political posture. It is a foundational value. We believe that when governments can’t print money at will, they can’t wage wars at will. That is the entire point. What is happening in Iran is a humanitarian catastrophe. Reports of children killed in residential neighborhoods, a major university bombed, human chains of young people forming around power plants to shield them from American missiles. These are not abstractions. They are the human cost of the very system Bitcoin was built to opt out of.
The two-week ceasefire, brokered through Pakistan’s intervention, is a fragile reprieve. Iran has accepted negotiations in Islamabad beginning Friday. But we have already seen what happens when diplomacy is sabotaged. Iran’s IRGC intelligence chief was assassinated mid-conflict, negotiators have been targeted, and the pattern of setting deadlines only to extend them has made the entire process feel performative. Time will tell if this ceasefire holds.
What won’t change is the math. Wars cost money. Money comes from somewhere. And when governments run out of honest revenue, they print. Every dollar created to fund conflict is a dollar that steals purchasing power from the people who earn it. Every bomb dropped on Iranian bridges is paid for with dollars. Every aircraft carrier repositioned to the Persian Gulf runs on the full faith and credit of the United States Treasury. Every escalation widens the deficit, increases the pressure on the Fed, and further erodes the credibility of the dollar as a neutral global reserve currency.
Bitcoin fixes this. Not through slogans, but through mathematics. A hard cap of 21 million. No Federal Reserve. No emergency printing. No backdoor funding of wars the public never authorized.
To my fellow travelers in the Bitcoin and crypto space: I understand the disillusionment. Many of us believed that political engagement would accelerate adoption and protect our industry. But we should never have expected a politician, any politician, to embody the values of decentralization. That was always our job. Bitcoin doesn’t need a president. It needs users. It needs people who look at what’s unfolding on their screens right now and decide they’d rather hold an asset that no government can inflate to fund the next war.
If the intent of Trump as the de facto “ Bitcoin President” is to embolden our beliefs more in voting with our feet, in selling more USD for BTC, then he’s doing a hell of a job.
_________________________________________________________________________
Bitcoin.com accepts no responsibility or liability, and shall not be liable, whether directly or indirectly, for any loss, damage, claim, cost, or expense of any kind, whether actual, alleged, or consequential, arising out of or in connection with the use of, or reliance upon, any content, goods, or services referenced in this article. Any reliance placed on such information is strictly at the reader’s own risk.
Crypto
Strategy Signals Bitcoin Supply Shock With 2.2x New BTC Supply Acquired and 24,675 BTC Gain
Key Takeaways:
- Strategy Inc. reported acquiring 94,470 BTC in 2026, reaching 2.2x bitcoin supply absorption.
- Bitcoin treasury metrics indicate 3.7% yield, generating 24,675 BTC worth about $1.7 billion.
- Michael Saylor stated sub-$100K bitcoin window may close in 2026 amid rising demand.
Strategy Bitcoin Accumulation Outpaces Network Supply Growth
Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR) shared on social media platform X on April 7 that it accumulated bitcoin faster than new issuance. The firm emphasized supply absorption and yield performance. The update framed its activity against bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule and tightening supply dynamics.
The update outlines year-to-date performance figures showing acquisition at 2.2 times the natural bitcoin supply alongside a BTC yield of 3.7% and a BTC gain of 24,675, valued at approximately $1.7 billion. The accompanying image breaks down how this performance developed across both quarterly and cumulative periods. In Q1 2026, Strategy reported acquiring 89,599 BTC while generating a BTC yield of 3.2% and a BTC gain of 21,329. The visual also presents a corresponding dollar gain of $1.4 billion for the quarter. Year-to-date totals extend these figures to 94,470 BTC acquired, reflecting continued accumulation and improved yield efficiency over time.
Bitcoin Supply Mechanics Highlight Strategy Market Impact
Bitcoin supply mechanics provide the baseline for measuring this activity. Following the 2024 halving, each mined block produces 3.125 BTC, while the network averages about 144 blocks per day. This results in roughly 450 BTC entering circulation daily, a figure observable through on-chain data. Over a period of roughly 90 to 100 days, issuance totals about 40,000 to 45,000 BTC. Against this level, Strategy’s reported acquisition of 94,470 BTC results in a ratio slightly above 2.0x, aligning with its stated 2.2x depending on timing and block production variability.
Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor framed this dynamic through the concept of supply absorption, describing how capital access allows entities to outpace bitcoin’s fixed issuance. He recently stated: “We can buy more bitcoin than they can sell.” With roughly 450 BTC produced daily, sustained buying can absorb both newly mined coins and available exchange liquidity. Saylor also described a reflexive flywheel, where capital raises fund additional bitcoin purchases, reducing available supply and increasing volatility. The approach emphasizes that bitcoin’s limited supply creates competition among market participants, framing the asset as digital property with constrained acreage. He added: “2026 will be known as the last year you could buy bitcoin at sub-$100K.”
Additional dashboard data expands on the company’s broader financial and market positioning alongside its bitcoin strategy. Strategy shows a share price of $123.63 with a daily decline of 3.18%, while reporting a market capitalization of $42.88 billion and an enterprise value of $59.17 billion. The dashboard lists trading volume at $724 million and a 30-day average trading volume of $2.62 billion. Volatility metrics include 76% implied volatility, 55% 30-day historical volatility, and 72% one-year historical volatility. The company also reports open interest of $29.97 billion, an mNAV ratio of 1.13, and an amplification figure of 36%, indicating how equity performance relates to underlying bitcoin exposure.
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