The year 2025 has remained mixed for the crypto market as the sector presents a balanced yet optimistic outlook. Looking at the positive side, there was tangible advancement—DeFi ecosystems continued to grow, stablecoins gained wider traction, CBDC infrastructure pilots moved forward, and developer participation surged across APAC and worldwide, with millions building on-chain.

“On one hand, the industry saw real progress: growth in DeFi projects, expansion of stablecoins, new CBDC-infrastructure pilots, and rising developer activity across APAC and globally, with millions committing to code on-chain. On the other hand, after early-year optimism from retail investors, the October correction was a reminder that sentiment remains fragile and that hype without real delivery can still hurt the industry,” said Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX.

Bitcoin has fallen roughly 30% from record high levels and is down more than 6% so far this year, as the market continues to find it difficult to recover after the October crash. According to Bloomberg report, trading activity remains subdued, with retail speculation losing momentum.

The decline has partly been driven by technical factors, with prices dropping below the 365-day moving average, while persistent selling by long-term holders has also weighed on Bitcoin.

Key drivers of the crypto market in 2025

At the beginning of the year, the market witnessed the setup of US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, underscoring Bitcoin’s rising strategic significance.

By mid-year, the enactment of the GENIUS Act introduced a well-defined regulatory framework for USD-backed stablecoins, strengthening confidence and paving the way for wider adoption.

The CFTC’s December 4 decision to permit listed spot crypto products on registered futures exchanges represented a key milestone, advancing the market from regulated ETFs toward more transparent cross-border compliance structures and greater institutional involvement.

Crypto market outlook in 2026

According to Shetty, global institutional appetite for regulated digital-asset products will continue to increase, driving capital inflows and contributing to market stability.

At the same time, domestic policies for countries will be key in shaping their respective investor sentiment. In India, the foundation stone of the CBDC project could be laid soon, Shetty added.

“The RBI has announced a hackathon in October to nurture tech talents in the emerging technology space, which will encourage more Indians to see emerging tech as a promising career prospect. A clearer regulatory framework for VDAs, potentially paired with supportive tax measures, support for stablecoin initiatives alongside CBDC measures, could unlock real-world blockchain use cases from Indian builders to kickstart on-chain growth for Indians,” Shetty said.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

On-chain data shows a chunk of the Bitcoin supply has its cost basis above the current spot price, which could potentially shape volatility if BTC rebounds.

Bitcoin Supply Overhang Could Dictate Volatility & Selling Pressure

As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, over 6.6 million BTC is being held above the latest spot price of the cryptocurrency. The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Supply In Loss,” which measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of Bitcoin that’s currently carrying some net unrealized loss.

The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. If this previous transfer price was more than the current spot price for any coin, then that particular token is considered to be in a state of loss.

The Supply In Loss adds up all coins fulfilling this condition to find the total situation on the network. A counterpart indicator called the Supply In Profit accounts for the supply of the opposite type.

Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Supply In Loss over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Supply In Loss shrunk to a value of zero as the asset’s price set its all-time high (ATH) above $126,000 back in October, but with the market downturn that has followed since then, the indicator’s value has shot up.

Today, around 6.6 million tokens of the cryptocurrency sit below cost basis, equivalent to a third of the BTC supply in circulation. The recent highs in the Supply In Loss represent the highest degree of pain in the market since 2023.

In another X post, the analyst has shared the chart for another Bitcoin indicator, this one called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). The URPD contains information about how much BTC was bought last at each of the levels that the asset has visited in its history.

From the chart of the URPD, it’s visible how the Bitcoin supply that’s in loss is distributed across the various levels right now. A few levels are particularly prominent in the degree of supply that they carry, while some others are notably thin with coins.

Generally, investors who are in loss look forward to a retest of their cost basis so that they can get their money “back.” Once this happens, some of these hands decide to exit, fearing that BTC will go down again in the near future. This selling can make large supply clusters above the spot price, potential points of volatility.

Considering that a large portion of the supply is underwater right now, a venture back to higher levels could be met with selling pressure for Bitcoin.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has made some recovery during the past day as its price has returned to $88,600.