Crypto
K33 Research Says Bitcoin’s $60K Bottom Was Bear Market’s Maximum Drawdown
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s Downside Capped at $60K
In a research note published this week, K33’s head of research, Vetle Lunde, argued that the conditions defining the 2026 bear market make an 80%-plus collapse (akin to those seen in 2018 and 2022) structurally unlikely. She added that the 2025 bull market was less aggressive than prior cycles, and a proportionally less severe bear market will follow as a consequence.
The firm’s key evidence sits in derivatives data as bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rate has remained negative for 81 consecutive days, an unusually prolonged stretch of bearish positioning in perpetual swap markets. Lunde describes this as a “uniquely pessimistic” sentiment, which paradoxically stands to limit further downside by exhausting near-term selling pressure before a sustained decline can develop.
K33’s base case projects bitcoin consolidating within a range of $60,000 to $75,000, with slow grind dynamics rather than a sharp capitulation event. The “maximum drawdown” in this scenario sits at the February low of approximately $60,000, a roughly 52% decline from the all-time high of $126,272 reached on October 6, 2025.
The numbers may be severe by historical standards for equities, but quite modest for a bitcoin bear market cycle, as previous cycles have produced peak-to-trough losses exceeding 80%.
The key structural difference K33 points to is the role of institutional capital. With access to bitcoin now largely routed through regulated products, the extreme leverage feedback loops that drove prior capitulations are harder to sustain at scale. Long-term holders also appear to be approaching selling exhaustion, a metric that in previous cycles has preceded a medium-term price floor.
Moreover, in February, K33 flagged parallels to the late 2022 bear market bottom when bitcoin first approached the $60,000 level. The latest note extends that argument forward, suggesting that if February was the floor, the market is now in slow recovery territory rather than mid-decline.
For traders and long-term holders alike, the question now shifts from how low bitcoin can go to how long the consolidation lasts.
Crypto
After hundreds of millions lost to fraud, NC lawmakers push for crypto ATM protections
North Carolina lawmakers on Tuesday advanced a bill to protect consumers from cryptocurrency kiosk fraud.
House Bill 920, which passed the House with a 115-to-0 vote, aims to regulate an industry that its author claims is unregulated in the state.
“It’s the wild, wild West,” Rep. Neal Jackson, R-Moore, said during a committee discussion on Tuesday. “There is no regulation whatsoever in North Carolina. That’s what we’re trying to do here.”
Lawmakers cited a growing amount of fraud as the reason for the bill. About $389 million in losses were reported last year through cryptocurrency ATMs, a 58% increase from 2024, according to the FBI. The majority of those impacted are 60-plus.
The bill now goes to the Senate for consideration. It seeks to:
- Require licenses for all kiosk operators under the Money Transmissions Act.
- Place operators under the supervision of the Commissioner of Banks.
- Require fraud warnings and transaction receipts for every transaction.
- Require compliance and consumer protection officers that are always available.
It also seeks to place limitations on transactions in an effort to reduce fraud, requiring a $2,000 daily limit for the first 30 days for new customers and a $5,000 daily limit for existing customers, who would qualify after 30 days.
While other states have service fees between 20% and 30%, Jackson suggests putting a cap at 14%.
State Rep. Tim Longest, D-Wake, expressed concern about having the kiosks at all in the state. He said the bill’s protections could be stronger.
“These machines can be the subject of fraud, basically facilitating fraud on seniors and other vulnerable individuals and in those cases,” Longest said. “… In crafting regulations, I think it’s important that we ensure consumers are adequately protected by those regulations and I do not believe that, under the language of the bill currently before you, those regulations are sufficient to protect consumers.”
Jackson pointed to this bill as an effort to regulate, not shut down, cryptocurrency kiosks in the state and said there are even more consumer protections in place.
David N. Tente, the executive director of the ATM Industry Association, said the bill — and others like it — is problematic because it requires operators to provide refunds to fraud victims in certain instances.
“In most cases, the cash in the ATM/kiosk does not belong to the operator, which means that returning any of it would be, technically, theft,” Tente said. “If you give someone cash for something, and you change your mind after they leave, you probably won’t get it back.”
He added: “We certainly feel sorry for those being scammed, but there are very simple things you can do to avoid it.”
Tente said these kinds of scams have existed for centuries, adding: “They are still here — just using different means of payment.”
Crypto
Zcash Climbs 80% Since June 5 as Traders Shrug off Orchard Bug Fears
Key Takeaways
- Zcash surged 11.3% to $478, reclaiming its top privacy coin status over monero after an 80% rally.
- The ZEC spike wiped out $11.5 million in short positions within 24 hours as bitcoin dropped below $63,000.
- Analysts like Matthew Brienen watch Zcash next to see how the market prices in the 2022 Orchard pool bug.
The Orchard Vulnerability
Privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) surged on Tuesday, jumping 11.3% to $478 as it maintained a steady recovery that began shortly after it plunged to just under $265. At the time of writing (5:32 a.m. EST), the privacy coin’s latest climb pushed its gains since June 5 to approximately 80% and saw ZEC’s market capitalization reclaim the $8 billion threshold.
The coin, alongside rival monero, was one of a handful of altcoins that logged gains exceeding 5% even as bitcoin dipped below the $63,000 threshold. ZEC’s surge above $470 on June 9 resulted in $11.5 million in short positions on the coin being wiped out in 24 hours, compared with $2.43 million in liquidated long bets.
While Zcash has since wrestled back its top-dog status from chief rival Monero, the asset is still trading at a steep discount compared to its pre-June 5 peak of just over $600. Before the correction, ZEC was riding a powerful wave of momentum, fueled by a resurgence in the crypto-privacy narrative and high-profile endorsements from industry heavyweights like Arthur Hayes. However, that bullish trajectory ground to a sudden halt. The catalyst for the reversal was the unsettling discovery of a critical vulnerability within Zcash’s Orchard shielded pool—a zero-knowledge security flaw that had quietly lay dormant since 2022.
Despite this, supporters of the privacy coin believe the uncovering of the bug has not damaged ZEC’s long-term appeal. Posting on X, Eunice Wong insisted there is an extremely low likelihood an exploit was executed and said traders who offloaded their holdings had overreacted.
“Long-term thesis hasn’t changed. In an AI-driven world where every transaction is tracked, financial privacy will become the scarcest asset, and ZEC is still one of the strongest privacy plays in crypto. Catching this falling knife is going to look like a genius move,” Wong wrote.
Matthew Brienen, managing partner at Cryptocharged, said while he recently reduced his ZEC holdings, it was purely a risk-management decision rather than a change in conviction. Nevertheless, he offered an explanation for why caution is warranted even if there is no proof that ZEC was counterfeited.
“The Orchard bug isn’t a confirmed inflation event. It’s a confirmed inability to prove supply integrity. Those are not the same thing. The most important fundamental fact to remember is that turnstile accounting is not the same as proving Orchard balances are legitimate. You can track what entered. You can track what exited. That doesn’t prove every claim inside the pool was valid,” Brienen explained.
He added, however, that if counterfeit Orchard notes do exist, they could remain hidden until redemption is ultimately forced. According to Brienen, the recent price action suggests that is exactly what the market is trying to price in.
Crypto
Top 100 Bitcoin Treasuries Now Hold 1.26M BTC
Key Takeaways
- Top 100 institutional bitcoin holders now control nearly 1.26 million BTC, although Strategy alone accounts for more than two-thirds of that total.
- Mining firms, technology companies, private enterprises, and treasury vehicles are using bitcoin to diversify reserves, hedge inflation risk, and signal long-term conviction.
- The data shows broad institutional participation, but holdings remain highly concentrated among crypto-native firms and one dominant corporate buyer.
Bitcoin Treasuries Are Turning Scarcity Into Strategy
Institutional bitcoin accumulation has grown dramatically, with the top 100 holders now controlling 1,258,090 BTC as of June 8, 2026, according to a chart published on X by HODL15Capital. This group includes public companies, private firms, mining operators, and treasury-focused entities, reflecting specialized corporate allocations alongside one dominant buyer.
At the top of the list, Strategy holds exactly 845,256 BTC, far surpassing every other entity. Twentyone Capital follows with 43,514 BTC, and Japan’s Metaplanet holds 40,177 BTC, showing that institutional BTC accumulation is global and spans multiple industries. Marathon Digital contributes 35,303 BTC.
The size of Strategy’s lead reveals how uneven the race has become. One company controls more bitcoin than the rest of the top 100 combined, turning corporate treasury policy into a marketwide talking point. For investors, that concentration makes Strategy one of the clearest equity-market proxies for BTC exposure.
Other major names on the chart include Coinbase, Riot Platforms, Tesla, Spacex, Cleanspark, Block, Galaxy Digital, American Bitcoin Corp., and Hut 8. That lineup makes the trend easy to understand: bitcoin is no longer only a crypto-sector balance sheet bet. It now reaches miners, exchanges, technology firms, private companies, and treasury vehicles.
The BTC Concentration Across Sectors and Borders
The global spread of BTC holders is as notable as the headline total. Metaplanet’s top ranking shows adoption is no longer U.S.-centric, with participants from Japan, Canada, Europe, and Asia signaling worldwide corporate and institutional demand for bitcoin.
The supply angle is what makes the chart matter beyond crypto circles. The top 100 holders control more than 6% of bitcoin’s maximum 21 million supply, giving a singular corporate buyer a highly visible role in market liquidity. For shareholders, that creates both upside potential and sharper exposure to crypto-driven swings.
Overall, the chart illustrates a highly centralized institutional concentration of bitcoin reserves. The focus is no longer just who holds the most, but how BTC has become a balance sheet battleground, with companies using treasury positions to signal conviction, attract investors, and position themselves in a more bitcoin-integrated financial landscape.
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