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Analysis: Fever over BlackRock’s bitcoin fund faces chill of rate hikes and regulations

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Analysis: Fever over BlackRock’s bitcoin fund faces chill of rate hikes and regulations

LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) – BlackRock’s plans for a bitcoin fund have helped push the world’s largest cryptocurrency to its highest in a year, but rising interest rates and a regulatory crackdown could choke off the rally, analysts and industry insiders say.

Bitcoin jumped more than 15% last week, rising above $30,000 for the first time since April, its best week since March, in large part driven by BlackRock (BLK.N) filing an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed by bitcoin.

If approved, a bitcoin ETF from the world’s biggest asset manager could attract investors reluctant to buy the high-risk cryptocurrency directly.

The industry has been hit by a loss of investor confidence and heightened regulatory scrutiny this year after a series of collapses at major crypto firms in 2022 left investors saddled with losses.

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In a market driven by sentiment, with sky-high valuation predictions not uncommon, the crypto industry saw BlackRock’s application as a sign that Wall Street is coming round to bitcoin, a view bolstered by the launch of a crypto exchange backed by Citadel Securities, Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab.

But economic stresses could thwart hopes for a sustained rally, analysts say. Bitcoin’s gains slowed towards the end of the week, and on Monday it was trading at $30,405.

“Sticky inflation and economic recession concerns are still longer-term risks that we have to be cautious about,” said Youwei Yang, chief economist at bitcoin miner BTCM.

Reuters Graphics

BITCOIN’S BUYERS

“From our perspective, and based on conversations with sell-side desks, this rally was led by institutional buyers,” said Wes Hansen, head of trading and operations at crypto hedge fund Arca.

At crypto broker Genesis Trading, “dozens” of top-tier clients have increased their exposure to bitcoin following the BlackRock filing, said Gordon Grant, managing director of sales and trading.

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A spot bitcoin ETF could rebuild investors’ confidence in their ability to move U.S. dollars in and out of cryptocurrency, after the collapse of crypto lenders Signature, Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank in the United States earlier this year, Grant added.

“The market is now pricing an ability to put a significant amount of fiat – if there is the volition to do so – into bitcoin, and that is such a significant development.”

Luuk Strijers, chief commercial officer of crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, said that he’d seen a significant increase in call buying, pointing to “bullish momentum.”

To be sure, the SEC has yet to approve BlackRock’s application and it has so far rejected proposed ETFs that track bitcoin from the likes of Fidelity and Cboe Global Markets. The SEC has cited concerns about market manipulation in such products. Digital asset manager Grayscale had its proposal for a spot bitcoin ETF rejected last year.

“In previous spot ETF rejections, the SEC has cited concerns about market manipulation, and BlackRock’s application appears to take a different approach to address this sticking point,” said Riyad Carey, a research analyst at Kaiko.

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LESS CAPITAL OVERALL

After surprise rate hikes in Australia and Canada, and as the Federal Reserve forecasts two more hikes, investors are now betting that interest rates will remain higher for longer.

Bitcoin had benefited from ultra-low interest rates, which incentivised investors to take riskier bets in search of returns.

Genesis Trading’s Gordon Grant said higher rates mean investors can get returns in other assets.

“A lot of liquidity, nominally, has been withdrawn from the system… There’s just less capital overall, and not only that, cash is now no longer trash.”

Although bitcoin has recovered from last year’s low of $15,479, it still trades at less than half of its all-time high of $69,000, reached in late 2021.

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Analysts say prices have also been depressed by regulatory uncertainty, as the SEC is increasingly cracking down on what it sees as a culture of rule-breaking across the industry. The SEC earlier this month sued major exchanges Coinbase and Binance.

“The uncertainty around SEC activity had led to softness around price action, with Blackrock coming out “in support” it feels a little different,” said Usman Ahmad, CEO of Zodia Markets, the crypto exchange of the venture arm of Standard Chartered (STAN.L) and Hong Kong crypto firm BC Technology.

“Albeit – there are likely to be further challenges with interest rates continuing to increase,” he said.

Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft, additional reporting by Tom Wilson, Editing by Louise Heavens

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Elizabeth Howcroft

Thomson Reuters

Reports on the intersection of finance and technology, including cryptocurrencies, NFTs, virtual worlds and the money driving “Web3”.

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Cryptocurrency investor known as ‘Bitcoin Jesus’ reaches Deal With Prosecutors. What to expect?

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Cryptocurrency investor known as ‘Bitcoin Jesus’ reaches Deal With Prosecutors. What to expect?
Roger Ver, a prominent cryptocurrency investor, has reached a tentative agreement with the Justice Department to table a criminal tax fraud case that federal prosecutors brought against him last year, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. Ver, 46, known as “Bitcoin Jesus” in crypto circles for his early evangelism, was charged by federal prosecutors in 2024 with fraud and tax evasion for failing to pay $48 million in taxes that he owed on his digital currency holdings. Under the terms of the deferred-prosecution agreement, Ver would pay about that much to the government, said the people, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the deal.

Under the deal, which has not been filed with the court and could still change, the charges would eventually be dropped if Ver complied with the terms of the agreement.

The case is poised to become the latest example of how the Trump administration has systematically dismantled a yearslong government crackdown on the crypto industry, a sector rife with fraud, scams and theft.

Like other beneficiaries of the rollback, Ver sought to curry favor with President Donald Trump by linking his case to the president’s grievances about the weaponization of the justice system.

This year, Ver paid $600,000 to Roger Stone, a longtime associate of Trump, to try to abolish the tax provisions at the heart of the case. And crypto investor hired David Schoen, a lawyer who represented Trump during his second impeachment trial. Lobbying filings show that Ver also hired Christopher M. Kise, a lawyer who defended Trump against various criminal and civil charges, as well as the lobbying firm run by Brian Ballard, a major Trump fundraiser.

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A spokesperson for the Justice Department declined to comment. Reached by phone, Ver also declined to comment.”I’d LOVE to say more, but I will follow my tax lawyer’s advice like I’ve been doing for decades,” he wrote in a follow-up email. “Unfortunately, that means ‘no comment.’”The Biden administration spent years cracking down on crypto. The Securities and Exchange Commission filed a series of lawsuits arguing that digital currencies should be subject to the same strict rules that govern stocks and bonds on Wall Street.

But since Trump took office for his second term, the SEC has dropped lawsuits against Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the United States, and other major firms.

And during his first week in office, Trump pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the crypto-fueled drug marketplace Silk Road, who was serving a life sentence on charges that included distributing narcotics on the internet. The president later pardoned the founders of the BitMEX exchange, who had pleaded guilty in 2022 to violating a law that protects against money laundering.

Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the crypto exchange Binance, is also seeking a pardon that would wipe away a money-laundering violation and pave the way for his company to establish itself in the U.S. market.

Ver, a former California resident who renounced his U.S. citizenship in 2014, was arrested last year in Spain, according to the Justice Department, which announced plans at the time to extradite him. Prosecutors accused him of concealing the value of his bitcoin holdings while he prepared filings connected to the requirement that Americans settle any tax obligations before renouncing citizenship.

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In January, Ver claimed in a video posted on social media that he was being threatened with a possible sentence of more than 100 years because of his political views and his role in promoting crypto.

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Ripple Highlights Transatlantic Initiative as Blueprint for Global Crypto Regulation

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Ripple Highlights Transatlantic Initiative as Blueprint for Global Crypto Regulation
A groundbreaking transatlantic initiative is fueling institutional blockchain adoption, spotlighting stablecoins, tokenized assets, regulatory alignment, and cross-border finance, with Ripple positioned to shape global standards and accelerate digital growth.
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Texas brothers charged in cryptocurrency kidnapping, robbery in MN

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Texas brothers charged in cryptocurrency kidnapping, robbery in MN

A Washington County family was reportedly kidnapped and held hostage at gunpoint for hours by two Texas brothers who ultimately took more than $72,000 in cryptocurrency. 

Raymond Christian Garcia, 23, and Isiah Angelo Garcia, 24, were each charged via warrant with three counts of kidnapping, three counts of first-degree burglary, and one count of first-degree aggravated robbery for their alleged roles.

The incident led to the Washington County Sheriff’s Office issued a shelter in place order while they searched for the suspects. The incident ultimately led to the cancellation of a high school homecoming football game in Mahtomedi.

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Home invasion and cryptocurrency theft

The backstory:

According to the criminal complaint, a 911 call was received at approximately 4:45 p.m. on Sept. 19 from someone in Grant, Minnesota, stating that he and his family had been kidnapped and were being held hostage at gunpoint in their home. 

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The complaint details that on Sept. 19, a man was taking out the garbage at around 7:45 a.m. when the armed brothers allegedly forced him back into the garage and bound his hands with zip ties. The men then woke up the two other people in the house, also binding them. 

Raymond Garcia is accused of holding the 911 caller and his mother hostage for nine hours while armed with an AR-15-style rifle. Police said the upstairs bedroom door was tied shut with wire and needed to be cut in order to free them, according to the complaint. 

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Meanwhile, Isiah Garcia, armed with a shotgun, allegedly forced the man to log into his cryptocurrency wallet and transfer over $36,000 to an unknown account, charges state. After learning of a separate crypto wallet kept at the family cabin in Jacobson, Minnesota, Isiah Garcia allegedly forced the man to drive three hours and transfer the additional cryptocurrency, valued at over $36,000.

According to the complaint, the victim believed some of his crypto account information had been leaked during a data breach. The charges note that the men were frequently on the phone with an “unknown third party who directed [them] to transfer the cryptocurrency.”

The victim inside the house called 911, and multiple squad cars passed Isiah Garcia as they were driving back from the cabin. Isiah Garcia then turned the truck around, parked, and fled on foot before discarding the shotgun in a nearby field, charges allege. 

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Raymond Garcia was seen on camera running out the back door of the home. During a search of the area, authorities recovered an AR-15 rifle in a suitcase located in the tree line behind the home, charges said.

Brothers arrested in Texas 

The investigation:

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According to the complaint, Isiah Garcia rented a car near Houston, Texas, on Sept. 16 and drove to Minnesota. The vehicle’s GPS data placed the car near the victim’s home and a motel in Roseville. On Sept. 21, Isiah Garcia was taken into custody while driving the same rental car in Texas. 

Raymond Garcia went to authorities on Sept. 22 to report that his AR-15 had been stolen in Waller, Texas. During a search of the brother’s home in the Waller area, authorities reportedly found a firearm box with a serial number matching the AR-15 recovered in Minnesota. 

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At the time the criminal complaints were filed, both men were in custody in Texas. 

The Source: This story uses previous FOX 9 reporting and information from a Washington County criminal complaint. 

Crime and Public SafetyWashington CountyTexas
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