Elizabeth Howcroft
Thomson Reuters
Reports on the intersection of finance and technology, including cryptocurrencies, NFTs, virtual worlds and the money driving “Web3”.
LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) – BlackRock’s plans for a bitcoin fund have helped push the world’s largest cryptocurrency to its highest in a year, but rising interest rates and a regulatory crackdown could choke off the rally, analysts and industry insiders say.
Bitcoin jumped more than 15% last week, rising above $30,000 for the first time since April, its best week since March, in large part driven by BlackRock (BLK.N) filing an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed by bitcoin.
If approved, a bitcoin ETF from the world’s biggest asset manager could attract investors reluctant to buy the high-risk cryptocurrency directly.
The industry has been hit by a loss of investor confidence and heightened regulatory scrutiny this year after a series of collapses at major crypto firms in 2022 left investors saddled with losses.
In a market driven by sentiment, with sky-high valuation predictions not uncommon, the crypto industry saw BlackRock’s application as a sign that Wall Street is coming round to bitcoin, a view bolstered by the launch of a crypto exchange backed by Citadel Securities, Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab.
But economic stresses could thwart hopes for a sustained rally, analysts say. Bitcoin’s gains slowed towards the end of the week, and on Monday it was trading at $30,405.
“Sticky inflation and economic recession concerns are still longer-term risks that we have to be cautious about,” said Youwei Yang, chief economist at bitcoin miner BTCM.
“From our perspective, and based on conversations with sell-side desks, this rally was led by institutional buyers,” said Wes Hansen, head of trading and operations at crypto hedge fund Arca.
At crypto broker Genesis Trading, “dozens” of top-tier clients have increased their exposure to bitcoin following the BlackRock filing, said Gordon Grant, managing director of sales and trading.
A spot bitcoin ETF could rebuild investors’ confidence in their ability to move U.S. dollars in and out of cryptocurrency, after the collapse of crypto lenders Signature, Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank in the United States earlier this year, Grant added.
“The market is now pricing an ability to put a significant amount of fiat – if there is the volition to do so – into bitcoin, and that is such a significant development.”
Luuk Strijers, chief commercial officer of crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, said that he’d seen a significant increase in call buying, pointing to “bullish momentum.”
To be sure, the SEC has yet to approve BlackRock’s application and it has so far rejected proposed ETFs that track bitcoin from the likes of Fidelity and Cboe Global Markets. The SEC has cited concerns about market manipulation in such products. Digital asset manager Grayscale had its proposal for a spot bitcoin ETF rejected last year.
“In previous spot ETF rejections, the SEC has cited concerns about market manipulation, and BlackRock’s application appears to take a different approach to address this sticking point,” said Riyad Carey, a research analyst at Kaiko.
After surprise rate hikes in Australia and Canada, and as the Federal Reserve forecasts two more hikes, investors are now betting that interest rates will remain higher for longer.
Bitcoin had benefited from ultra-low interest rates, which incentivised investors to take riskier bets in search of returns.
Genesis Trading’s Gordon Grant said higher rates mean investors can get returns in other assets.
“A lot of liquidity, nominally, has been withdrawn from the system… There’s just less capital overall, and not only that, cash is now no longer trash.”
Although bitcoin has recovered from last year’s low of $15,479, it still trades at less than half of its all-time high of $69,000, reached in late 2021.
Analysts say prices have also been depressed by regulatory uncertainty, as the SEC is increasingly cracking down on what it sees as a culture of rule-breaking across the industry. The SEC earlier this month sued major exchanges Coinbase and Binance.
“The uncertainty around SEC activity had led to softness around price action, with Blackrock coming out “in support” it feels a little different,” said Usman Ahmad, CEO of Zodia Markets, the crypto exchange of the venture arm of Standard Chartered (STAN.L) and Hong Kong crypto firm BC Technology.
“Albeit – there are likely to be further challenges with interest rates continuing to increase,” he said.
Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft, additional reporting by Tom Wilson, Editing by Louise Heavens
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Image=Santiment
It has been observed that the number of cryptocurrency holders has surged over the past two years.
On the 23rd (local time), the on-chain analysis platform Santiment reported on X (formerly Twitter) that “the number of cryptocurrency holders has significantly increased over the past two years. The number of non-empty wallets for the top 4 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization has generally increased.”
Specifically, Bitcoin (BTC) has 54.7 million wallets (a 27% increase), Ethereum (ETH) 134.9 million wallets (a 47% increase), Tether (USDT) 657 million wallets (a 66% increase), and Ripple 575 million wallets (a 28% increase).
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The global logistics industry is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by the integration of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency.
These innovations promise to enhance transparency, efficiency, and security across the supply chain. From tracking shipments to streamlining cross-border payments, the synergy between blockchain and cryptocurrency is setting new benchmarks for the logistics sector.
Blockchain technology, essentially a decentralized ledger system, enables secure and transparent recording of transactions. For logistics, this translates into the ability to track goods in real-time, authenticate the origin of products, and mitigate fraud. Key benefits include:
Traditional cross-border payments in logistics are often marred by high fees, long processing times, and currency exchange risks. Cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and stablecoins, are addressing these challenges by:
Several real-world applications highlight the impact of blockchain and cryptocurrency in logistics:
Despite its potential, the adoption of blockchain and cryptocurrency in logistics is not without hurdles:
The integration of blockchain and cryptocurrency in logistics is still in its nascent stages but holds immense promise.
Industry players are investing in pilot projects to explore scalability and operational viability. The convergence of these technologies with artificial intelligence and IoT will further revolutionize the sector, enabling predictive analytics, autonomous supply chains, and more.
Blockchain and cryptocurrency are not just buzzwords but transformative tools reshaping the logistics landscape.
By fostering transparency, reducing costs, and expediting processes, these technologies are addressing long-standing inefficiencies in the supply chain.
As adoption accelerates, businesses that embrace this revolution stand to gain a significant competitive edge in an increasingly digital and globalized economy.
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The performance of Bitcoin (BTC -0.53%) this year has been nothing short of extraordinary. It’s now up about 46% since the election on Nov. 5, and 146% year to date. Best of all, Bitcoin recently broke through the $100,000 price level to hit another all-time high just north of $108,000.
But what if I told you that there is another top cryptocurrency that is up more than 120% since the election, and 430% year to date? And that this cryptocurrency also just set a new all-time high? That cryptocurrency is Sui (SUI -3.69%), which now ranks 14th among all cryptocurrencies with a $13 billion market cap.
If you’ve never heard of Sui, that’s understandable. The cryptocurrency only launched in May 2023, just as the market was emerging from the crypto winter of 2022. So, in many ways, its launch flew under the radar of investors. There were bigger issues to consider. The industry was still coping with the aftermath of the collapse and scandal of crypto exchange FTX in November 2022, and nobody was very interested in hearing about another new cryptocurrency launch.
But fast-forward to August 2024. That’s when 21Shares — the company that partnered with Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest on the launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH -0.79%) — released a research report on Sui, detailing all of its unique characteristics. For example, it described how a new technical upgrade suddenly made Sui faster than any other top blockchain by a substantial margin. It pointed out how Sui was rapidly growing in terms of total value locked (TVL), which is a key metric showing the relative strength of a particular blockchain.
The title of the report (“Is Sui a Solana (SOL -0.00%) Killer?”) was very provocative, at least for crypto investors. It suggested that Sui had the technological chops to take on Solana, which now ranks as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency. For several years now, Solana has been positioned as the next Ethereum, so Sui being tabbed as a potential Solana killer is a big deal. In fact, 21Shares suggested that there might be a $68 billion market opportunity for Sui if it was able to take on Solana and win.
My primary concern right now with Sui is that it may be overheating. Just like Bitcoin, it is smashing through all-time high after all-time high. Right now, Sui is trading at about $4.50 after briefly testing the $5 price level. From the perspective of crypto traders, $5 presents the same psychological price barrier for Sui that $100,000 did for Bitcoin. It took Bitcoin a while to break through the $100,000 level, so Sui may not be able to break through the $5 price level by the end of this year.
But, in 2025, watch out. Just take a look at this comparison chart of Bitcoin and Sui since the presidential election. That leads me to think that the market is very bullish on Sui’s prospects under the Trump administration.
Moreover, consider the trading volume that Sui is now seeing on Coinbase Global (COIN 1.75%). Sui has become one of the 10 most popular cryptocurrencies on the platform in terms of 24-hour trading activity. Granted, the trading volume in Sui is nowhere near that of Bitcoin or Ethereum. But there’s more activity in Sui than in popular cryptocurrencies such as Chainlink, Litecoin, Cardano, Shiba Inu, and Avalanche.
Best of all, Sui has a major new product launch coming in 2025. It’s a $599 handheld gaming device that is currently available for pre-order online. If that product launch is a success, then it could be off to the races for Sui. It could easily double in price to hit the $10 price level.
This cryptocurrency could soar even higher if it ever realizes its full potential as the next Ethereum. Imagine if you had invested in Ethereum just 18 months after its launch. Most likely, you’d be a crypto millionaire by now. In December 2016, Ethereum was trading around $5, which is roughly where Sui is trading right now. Today, Ethereum trades for about $3,400.
That said, I can’t emphasize enough how speculative Sui is. It is still a baby in crypto terms. It has only been around for 18 months, and it can be difficult to get good data and reliable information about it. So, do your due diligence before investing in Sui, and keep your expectations in check. An investment opportunity like Ethereum might only come around once in a lifetime, so it’s asking a lot for it to happen with Sui as well.
Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, SUI, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Coinbase Global, Ethereum, SUI, and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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