Crypto
AML Compliance for Cryptocurrency and other Virtual Assets
Compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CFT) is becoming more complex as the global financial system – and the regulatory environment that governs it – continues to evolve. AML compliance professionals find themselves focusing their battles on two fronts: traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralised finance (DeFi), with a diverse and growing set of virtual assets that can be held, transferred or traded. Compliance is particularly challenging at the intersection of these two fronts, involving fiat currency and cryptocurrency.
As Paul Grewal of Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the United States, wrote in a June 2023 blog: ‘With more than 20 percent of Americans owning and using crypto, we need a regulatory framework that will protect consumers and enable the critical uses of this new technology to continue and grow.’
The number of distinct cryptocurrencies and digital assets continues to increase. Since the 2008 launch of Bitcoin, which remains the best-known cryptocurrency as well as the largest by market capitalisation, thousands of digital currencies have been coined. ‘Virtual assets’ is a term that describes a wide range of digital objects, including cryptocurrency, stablecoins pegged to a reserve currency such as the US dollar, non-fungible tokens (NFT) and security tokens that resemble tradable stocks and bonds. A new form of virtual asset that has emerged in the past few years is DeFi tokens, which can mimic traditional financial system products such as loans and savings accounts.
From an AML compliance standpoint, regulatory requirements for virtual assets are essentially the same for fiat currency and tangible assets. The most important aspect of all AML compliance programmes is that they should be designed to prevent criminals from using the global financial system to launder their ill-gotten gains, whether those are in fiat currency or cryptocurrency. Financial institutions’ AML compliance teams, therefore, must meet the same standards regardless of the type of asset. If a traditional financial institution opts to serve its customers using digital assets, the institution cannot apply a different standard of compliance, even if the tools used for transaction monitoring and other activities differ for virtual assets. As Adrienne A Harris, superintendent of the New York State Department of Financial Services, has explained: ‘All virtual currency companies licensed in New York State are subject to the same anti-money laundering, consumer protection, and cybersecurity regulations as traditional financial services companies.’
Internationally, regulatory jurisdictions are implementing or considering rules for cryptocurrency and other virtual assets. For example, although cryptocurrency has been fully legalised in 20 countries analysed by the Atlantic Council – including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, Japan and Singapore – only 14 currently have AML/CFT regulations that apply to cryptocurrency. As with any emerging technology, the pace of regulation has not kept up with the pace of adoption, and the disparate rules in various jurisdictions add to the challenge with compliance for institutions with global operations.
In the 45 countries the Atlantic Council studied, entities regulated for cryptocurrency and virtual assets include crypto exchanges, crypto issuers, traditional financial institutions, cryptoasset service providers and cryptocurrency miners. The regulatory status the council assigned to each of these jurisdictions are (1) legal, meaning all activities are permitted, (2) partial ban, or some activities are not permitted, and (3) general ban, signifying that all crypto and virtual asset activities are not permitted.
Ten of the G20 countries have legalised crypto and virtual assets, representing 50 per cent of global gross domestic product. According to the Atlantic Council, all members of the G20 are considering crypto regulations. An emerging area of virtual assets is stablecoins, which are usually backed by a fiat currency (except for algorithmic stablecoins that are unbacked by fiat currency). Regulation of stablecoins is under consideration in the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States and Thailand. Among G20 countries, Mexico has a partial ban on crypto and virtual assets, and currently does not permit financial institutions to issue stablecoins.
In October 2021, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) updated its guidance for a risk-based approach to virtual assets and virtual asset service providers (VASPs). The FATF noted that its recommendations apply to virtual assets and VASPs in the same way as they do to traditional financial institutions. The FATF is not attempting to regulate either the users of virtual assets or the technologies on which virtual assets are traded or used to conduct trades or transfers. Rather, the FATF is trying to clarify definitions of virtual assets and VASPs and provide guidance on the risks and tools to address money laundering and terrorist financing risks in peer-to-peer transactions.
What is changing steadily about virtual assets are their types, utilisation by individuals and corporate entities, and their value. Although this is a challenge for compliance professionals to stay current on the dynamic marketplace for virtual assets, an even bigger challenge may be what is not changing: regulatory expectations for AML compliance.
Compliance activities’ challenges and solutions
Arrayed against compliance professionals’ efforts to combat money laundering and terrorist financing are criminal entities that have proven themselves to be highly adaptable. From rogue actors to organised and state-sponsored enterprises, the opponents are adept at exploiting loopholes and altering tactics to maintain their flows of illicit funds. Virtual assets have become a popular mode of transferring and storing value, in part because there is a perception that they enable counterparties to remain anonymous in transactions. For obvious reasons, this benefits those with criminal intent; but anonymity in virtual assets has its limits – in fact, virtual assets are considered pseudo-anonymous.
Individuals familiar with the basic workings of cryptocurrency may assume all virtual asset transactions are recorded on distributed ledgers known as blockchains. Just as the internet encompasses both public and private cloud servers, the crypto world also has public and private blockchains. Although many cryptocurrency transactions are indeed recorded on public blockchains, many are not, especially those that take place on centralised exchanges. ‘Off-chain’ transactions, although less secure, nevertheless can provide faster service and lower fees than those that occur ‘on-chain’, such as Bitcoin’s public blockchain.
On-chain transactions are immutable and traceable, as digital wallets have public addresses and movements of funds are viewable on blockchains. Once a crypto transaction is verified on a blockchain, a record of it is stored on all ledgers on that chain. This fact is good news for AML/CFT compliance, as it enables analysis and attribution to wallet holders using sophisticated tools. The downside, and why virtual assets are pseudo-anonymous, is that each party in a transaction retains a secret key. The public address of a digital wallet remains visible but not the name of the user associated with that wallet. A significant challenge exists for compliance professionals in discerning the names to which digital wallets are attributed. Fortunately, compliance teams can enlist assistance in that effort from technology-enabled expert services.
The scale of crime involving digital wallets and movement of virtual assets, relative to all cryptocurrency volume, is minuscule: in 2022, the amount of crypto activity associated with illicit activities was 0.24 per cent, up from 0.12 per cent in 2021, according to blockchain data analysis company Chainalysis. The value of crime in cryptocurrency, however, is quite large. In its 2023 Crypto Crime Report, Chainalysis reports that cryptocurrency values received by illicit addresses hit an all-time high of US$20.6 billion in 2022, up from US$18.1 billion in 2021. The three predominant sources of illicit revenues in 2022 were sanctioned entities, scams and stolen funds. Chainalysis notes that these figures do not include non-crypto crimes, such as conventional drug trafficking, that use cryptocurrency as payment.
Onboarding and know-your-customer programmes
The pseudo-anonymous nature of virtual assets is a hurdle that compliance teams must clear to fulfil their mission to prevent or disrupt criminal use of the financial system. With the value of illicit activity rising in cryptocurrency, the stakes are getting higher.
Conducting know-your-customer (KYC) and customer due diligence (CDD) activities in an online environment poses a different kind of challenge from how onboarding has been done traditionally; for example, many more kinds of customers are coming to financial institutions through online channels, rather than face-to-face. The emergence and proliferation of financial technology companies (fintechs) have accelerated financial institutions’ adoption of digital onboarding. Fintechs have pushed banks to expand their onboarding from manual, paper-based processes and human identification verification to fully digital and automated verification using biometrics and, very often, third-party databases. Onboarding and KYC for customers with virtual assets requires a similar digital approach, while managing AML risks. The FATF guidance notes that virtual assets:
enable non-face-to-face business relationships . . . . Further, [virtual assets] can be used to quickly move funds globally . . . and to facilitate a range of financial activities—from money or value transfer services to securities, commodities or derivatives-related activity, among others. These factors in [virtual asset] financial activities or operations may indicate higher ML/TF [money laundering/terrorism financing] risks.
A critical component of onboarding and KYC is wallet screening. When conducted during onboarding and for ongoing KYC, wallet screening and due diligence help to identify bad actors by recognising risk exposure and, in some instances, associating wallets with a known entity or individual. Transactions outside the financial institution’s risk threshold can be blocked and fraud can be combated by pinpointing a wallet’s source and destination of funds. In turn, robust wallet screening provides users with confidence in executing trustworthy transactions and making links with other crypto wallets on the network, as well as helping to detect if a specific crypto exchange, sanctioned entity or darknet market is in control of a wallet.
For these reasons, compliance teams at TradFi institutions may find it useful to emulate the compliance steps that fintechs need to perform in the online environment in which they operate. These include onboarding, risk rating, transaction review, identification of counterparties and periodic reviews.
Onboarding customers to open accounts requires careful and consistent processes that may involve seeking additional information to establish and verify a customer’s identity, including obtaining documentation verifying complex ownership structures and the identities of any beneficial owners. KYC and CDD are merely the first steps in the AML compliance journey. A risk-based compliance programme enables institutions to allocate resources to more effectively align with their AML risks.
Transaction monitoring
Transaction monitoring is another key component in compliance programmes that lets financial institutions spot trouble and take action. An effective transaction monitoring programme establishes a feedback loop between an institution’s KYC and customer risk rating activities. Risk-based compliance requires monitoring and maintaining an up-to-date risk rating, as customers’ financial behaviours can and do change.
Compliance teams should continuously analyse customers’ transactions involving such assets in the context of cryptocurrency and other virtual assets; for example, a customer may convert fiat currency into cryptocurrency and vice versa. Similarly, institutions should monitor the outbound and inbound movement of crypto assets recorded on-chain and the movements of crypto assets off-chain, paying particular attention to unusual transaction patterns or transactions involving high-risk customers and locations.
A component of transaction monitoring is know your transaction (KYT), which is a process that financial institutions use to monitor, track and evaluate financial transactions to detect and prevent fraudulent or criminal activity. As cryptocurrency use grows, institutions must understand how crypto transactions carry bits of information with them so compliance teams can investigate these transactions for evidence of financial crimes. Additionally, KYT allows financial institutions to comply with AML regulations and protect their reputations and customers from financial crime. Without KYT, financial institutions would be at risk of unknowingly facilitating illegal activity, which could lead to legal penalties, financial losses and reputational damage.
KYT clarifies whether a person or business engages in illegal financial activity. It is a critical tool for financial institutions to ensure compliance with regulations, prevent financial crime, protect their customers and reputation, and analyse financial behaviour for oddities in individual transactions and patterns across multiple money moves. Together with KYC, financial institutions can supplement a well-established KYC/CDD process with additional steps when they offer a virtual asset product or service.
TradFi institutions typically get into crypto by offering it to existing customers. When establishing the expected activity of a customer, in addition to the usual questions about cash and wire transfers, the institution may ask if the customer plans to engage in cryptocurrency transactions. That could lead to follow-up questions: What kinds of coins/tokens? What are the customer’s current wallet addresses? From what wallets will the customer send funds to the institution? Will the customer engage in DeFi, or peer-to-peer, transactions? The KYC process can allow compliance teams to determine whether the expected activity of the customer is legal in their jurisdiction, and then allow the institution to screen existing wallets for direct and indirect exposure to unusual activity. Institutions can then design transaction monitoring alerts when customers send in funds through undisclosed wallets. The results of transaction monitoring help to create configurable wallet risk scoring so that users can better understand their transaction counterparties. That is why wallet screening, KYT and transaction monitoring remain integral parts of an adequate AML programme.
Beneficial ownership and direct/indirect exposure
To meet AML compliance requirements, institutions must gather information about counterparties to determine whether the movement of funds is suspicious. Even though crypto wallet addresses and the movement of funds are visible in virtual asset transactions on public blockchains, attribution of these addresses often requires additional analytical tools. For example, virtual asset monitoring companies have attributed wallet addresses to criminal and high-risk entities, including those that are subject to sanctions.
Institutions handling virtual assets can have direct exposure to the counterparties in a blockchain transaction as well as indirect exposure; that is, institutions face exposure to other addresses with which the counterparty has transacted. Indirect exposure can occur in both the sending and receipt of funds, and where they originate as well as their destination. Asset tracing takes on even more importance when those assets are virtual, but the good news for compliance teams is that tracing is easier thanks to the transparency of the distributed ledger system in blockchains.
In contrast, indirect exposure does not exist for institutions handling cash. It is not possible to track fiat currency in a centralised place to determine whether or where it has been in the hands of criminals. Except when cryptocurrency enters centralised crypto exchanges, mixers or tumblers, indirect exposure in crypto can be measured to a degree. Just as criminals using traditional financial institutions attempt to obfuscate and obscure the origin of their illicit funds by shifting them through a series of entities and other financial institutions, a similar technique exists in cryptocurrency. A cryptocurrency holder may possess multiple wallets to collect and transfer funds to intermediary non-service addresses on their way to a service address, such as a crypto exchange, through what are known as ‘hops’.
Transaction monitoring for virtual assets, therefore, should take into account direct and indirect exposure and create alerts to prompt further investigation. Examples of alerts that could uncover suspicious activity include those for multiple hops, as well as ex post facto receipt of virtual assets. Cryptocurrency exchanges cannot prevent the inflow of virtual assets but they can screen transactions after the fact to determine whether the target destination is associated with illicit addresses. Aligning transaction monitoring and alerts to guidance on trends and criminal typologies provided by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) also is a prudent step.
As the FATF notes:
[virtual asset] products or services that facilitate pseudonymous or anonymity-enhanced transactions also pose higher ML/TF risks, particularly if they inhibit a VASP’s ability to identify the beneficiary. Lack of customer and counterparty identification is especially concerning in the context of [virtual assets], which are cross-border in nature. If customer identification and verification measures do not adequately address the risks associated with non-face-to-face or opaque transactions, the ML/TF risks increase, as does the difficulty in tracing the associated funds and identifying transaction counterparties.
How regulatory environment is evolving on crypto and virtual assets
The regulatory environment on cryptocurrency and other virtual assets is becoming more complex, like the objects of regulation themselves. Even though financial services regulators hold institutions to the same standards, whether they handle digital or fiat currencies, regulators do recognise that the domain of virtual assets is developing rapidly. As a result, regulations on digital currencies and virtual assets are multi-part. Compliance teams have to wrestle with requirements relating to cryptocurrency itself, the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA), anti-money laundering and cybersecurity.
Adding to the complexity is the reality that multiple regulatory authorities exercise jurisdiction over crypto and virtual assets. Within the United States, several federal agencies, as well as state regulatory authorities, issue rules regarding virtual assets; among those agencies are the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the US Department of the Treasury. Outside the United States, differing regulatory regimes make it difficult for compliance teams to establish and maintain a global approach to AML on crypto and virtual assets.
In April 2023, the European Parliament passed its Regulation on Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA). The Regulation directs cryptoasset service providers to take steps to protect consumers and improve governance, and expands the entities that are subject to European AML rules. A separate, companion piece of legislation on AML is working its way through the European Parliament. This is intended to align the European Union AML approach with FATF standards on transfers of funds.
Regulation of the transfer of funds (TFR), also known as the Travel Rule, has long been a standard in fiat currency and is now being applied to cryptocurrency transactions. The Travel Rule sets a threshold at which institutions must identify the originators and beneficiaries of transactions. Jurisdictions differ on this, with the United States using a US$3,000 threshold for cryptocurrency transactions. The FATF initially suggested a threshold of US$1,000 or €1,000 for cryptocurrency transactions but new EU rules impose a €0 threshold, meaning all cryptocurrency transactions, regardless of size, must identify the originators and beneficiaries.
In spring 2023, more jurisdictions announced plans to enforce AML regulations for cryptocurrency transactions. Japan announced plans to enforce strict AML rules, beginning in June, intended to bring the nation in line with global cryptocurrency regulations, including the Travel Rule. Japan’s application of this rule imposes a US$3,000 threshold on cryptocurrency transactions. Similar action was taken in May 2023 by the United Arab Emirates, which indicated it would require licensed financial institutions to verify the identities of all customers, based on FATF standards, including relationships with virtual asset service providers, such as cryptocurrency exchanges.
Regulatory actions by other jurisdictions on virtual assets are likely as more financial services regulators consider global standards. An FATF report showed that 75 per cent of jurisdictions are partially or fully non-compliant with virtual asset AML standards. The report cited a general lack of understanding of cryptocurrency markets, as well as compliance tools that are limited in scope or not interoperable to meet FATF standards.
For compliance professionals, there is both a benefit and a challenge in the promulgation of regulations. The more national and other regulators that issue requirements on cryptocurrency and other virtual assets, the more legitimised these transactions become. More regulation, therefore, is likely to promote further use of digital assets, meaning financial institutions will see increasing volumes, and the AML compliance team’s workload will rise commensurately.
Steps for compliance teams to take
The road ahead in AML compliance for cryptocurrency and other virtual assets may appear difficult to navigate, but financial institutions can chart a course to make the journey easier. A foundational step is to assess the existing five pillars of the BSA/AML compliance programme. These pillars must support an institution’s compliance efforts when it comes to fiat currency as well as cryptocurrency. Successful compliance programmes are built on:
- Internal policies, procedures, and controls: Monitoring and screening methodologies should be reviewed and updated as risk profiles change for a given institution. AML compliance teams’ controls – including algorithms for identifying and investigating suspicious activities, filing suspicious activity reports and conducting forensic reviews – are the true test. Without effective controls, institutions can veer off into compliance failures.
- Designation of an AML officer: Accountability is critical in compliance, and the designation of an AML officer, with the right balance of experience between compliance and virtual assets, is an important foundational step.
- Employee training: Keeping up with changes in regulations and jurisdictional differences is difficult enough. Add in marketplace changes and new forms of virtual assets and that task becomes vastly more complicated. Continuing employee training is recommended for all financial institutions.
- Independent testing: To be consistently effective, compliance activities and procedures should be properly designed, analysed and validated. An independent third party who is knowledgeable about AML and virtual assets can be a valuable partner in this effort.
- Customer due diligence: KYC and CDD are essential elements in AML compliance. Compliance programmes need to account for the risk factors that pertain to the specific institution. Risk scoring of existing and prospective counterparties is a critical step, for any asset type.
Another important step is to utilise trusted partners to assist in designing, validating or performing the critical services relating to AML compliance. These include KYC, CDD, blockchain analytics, transaction monitoring, sanctions screening and risk scoring.
Finally, specific and regular training for compliance teams on cryptocurrency and other virtual assets is recommended. Keeping up to date with new asset types, marketplace trends, typologies in the use of cryptoassets for money laundering and corresponding regulations is vital for effective AML compliance.
Footnotes
Crypto
Coinbase Investigates ‘Delayed Sends’ for XRP on Its Platform | PYMNTS.com
Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase said Tuesday (Jan. 14) that it is investigating a problem with delayed sends of Ripple (XRP) on its platform.
“We are aware that some users may be experiencing delayed sends for Ripple (XRP),” Coinbase said in an incident report on its status page. “Buys, Sells and Fiat withdrawals/deposits are not affected. We are investigating this issue and will provide an update shortly.”
In an earlier, separate report on its status page, Coinbase said some users experienced delayed sends and receives for Stellar (XLM) on Friday (Jan. 10). That incident was resolved within 90 minutes.
On Thursday (Jan. 9), some users experienced latency or degraded performance with buys, sells, sends, Coinbase Onramp and Advanced Trade. That issue was resolved within two hours, according to the page.
In other, separate news about the company, it was reported Thursday (Jan. 9) that Coinbase told customers that it may have to share data demanded by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The regulator sent a subpoena to the firm that seeks information about Coinbase customers’ interactions with prediction market firm Polymarket, and Coinbase emailed some customers saying it may have to share that data with the CFTC.
“When we receive requests for information from a government, each request is carefully reviewed by a team of trained experts using established procedures to determine its legal sufficiency,” a Coinbase spokesperson told CoinDesk.
On Dec. 9, cryptocurrency payments solution firm Triple-A announced an integration with Coinbase that it said it designed to let Coinbase users make payments to select merchants in the Triple-A network.
“Triple-A’s integration with Coinbase Commerce will empower merchants to offer a Coinbase-specific payment option, enhancing the convenience for Coinbase users and allowing Coinbase to connect with a wider network of merchants, to drive the broader adoption of cryptocurrency payments,” the company said in a press release.
Coinbase upgraded its Coinbase One subscription program and launched a new tier called Coinbase One Premium on Dec. 4, saying that with these new offerings, “Coinbase One now truly benefits all types of traders.”
Coinbase One membership has reached 600,000 across 42 countries, the company added.
Crypto
Credissential Inc. Adopts Cryptocurrency Policy, Plans XRP and XLM Purchases – TipRanks.com
Stay Ahead of the Market:
An update from Axiom Capital Advisors, Inc. ( (TSE:WHIP) ) is now available.
Credissential Inc. announced a new Cryptocurrency Acquisition Policy aimed at enhancing shareholder value by purchasing digital assets like XRP and XLM. This move aligns with the company’s cryptocurrency initiatives and allows investors exposure to the growing digital asset market. The policy is also seen as a strategy to navigate inflationary pressures while diversifying the company’s treasury holdings, indicating a proactive approach to adapting to market trends and delivering long-term shareholder value.
More about Axiom Capital Advisors, Inc.
Credissential Inc. is a vertically integrated AI software development company focusing on advancing financial technology solutions. The company is committed to developing innovative products such as Antenna, a payment platform enhanced with AI and quantum encryption technologies, and DealerFlow, an AI-driven dealer management system designed to streamline operations and enhance efficiency.
YTD Price Performance: -6.45%
Average Trading Volume: 298,973
Technical Sentiment Consensus Rating: Buy
Current Market Cap: C$6.17M
Find detailed analytics on WHIP stock on TipRanks’ Stock Analysis page.
Crypto
Why Is Bitcoin Price Going Up? BTC Prediction After Bullish Buy Signal
Bitcoin’s
price (BTC) is making significant gains on Tuesday, January 14, 2025, adding
over $2,000 to its value. However, Monday saw the market shaken, with the price
briefly dropping to a two-month low below the critical $90,000 psychological
level.
In this
article, I review what triggered the sudden drop, why the Bitcoin price is
going up today, and how to interpret the bullish pin bar above the 50-day
exponential moving average—a potentially strong buy signal.
On Tuesday,
Bitcoin is trading above $97,000 on Binance, marking its highest value in a
week. The cryptocurrency is currently up 2.7%, with altcoins following suit.
Ethereum (ETH) has gained 4.9% over the past 24 hours, reaching
$3,200, while XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has
risen 7% to $2.56.
As shown in
the chart below, Bitcoin’s price remains in a consolidation phase that has been
in place since November, with the lower boundary near $92,000 and the upper
limit at its previous high of $98,000.
However,
Monday painted a less optimistic picture as
Bitcoin briefly dipped to just $89,398, causing significant panic and
confusion among retail investors.
The
temporary panic was also evident in the derivatives market: within four days,
investors pulled $1.6 billion from cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs),
marking one of the longest selling streaks in recent times.
Over the
past 24 hours, both bulls and bears have incurred losses. Approximately $500
million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the market, with nearly
equal distribution between long and short positions. Bitcoin accounted for over
20% of this activity, with $44 million liquidated from long positions and $72
million from shorts.
Analysts
attribute the recent decline in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market
to two primary factors: so-called “Trump Trade” and monetary policy.
Why Bitcoin Fell? Fed
Policy and Market Uncertainty Shake BTC Price
The
cryptocurrency market’s downturn is primarily driven by shifting expectations
about Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate policies. Strong economic indicators
have led investors to anticipate a longer period of higher interest rates. The
robust U.S. job market, with 256,000 new nonfarm payrolls and a 4.1%
unemployment rate, has particularly influenced this outlook.
According
to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting,
scheduled for January 29, is just 2.7%. The market is currently pricing in a
stronger likelihood (around 40%) of a cut to the 4.00–4.25% range in the second
half of the year. Earlier expectations were for a more aggressive path of rate
cuts, which was expected to fuel risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and
stocks.
Moreover, the
initial euphoria surrounding Trump’s pro-crypto stance has given way to more
cautious market sentiment. While Trump’s upcoming presidency promised to make
the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world,” investors are now
focusing on immediate economic realities rather than future policy promises.
The
cryptocurrency decline isn’t occurring in isolation. The selloff in Treasury
markets has created a ripple effect across various asset classes, affecting
both crypto and traditional markets. This broader market reaction demonstrates
Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with conventional risk assets.
Will Bitcoin Keep Going
Up? BTC Price Prediction and Technical Analysis
The
candlestick I want to highlight in the technical analysis of Bitcoin ‘s price
chart may seem modest and even barely noticeable. However, in my view, it
carries significant strength and buying potential. This is a bullish pin bar
(or doji candle) with an almost invisible body and a very long lower wick,
indicating that bears were in control but had to concede to bulls by the
session’s close.
What
does the chart show?
- The bullish
pin bar tested the 50 EMA and two critical support levels: $92,000 and $90,000. - All three
levels held, and the price responded with an immediate increase the following
day. - This strong
bullish signal confirmed the lower boundary of the consolidation range,
signaling that buyers are likely to actively defend the green-marked support
zone.
While
Bitcoin remains in consolidation, this reaction suggests, from a purely
technical standpoint, the potential for a move towards $103,000 (the 2025
highs) and ultimately $108,000, the all-time high (ATH) to date.
Bitcoin Price Key Support
and Resistance Levels
Support |
Resistance |
$90,000 – psychological round |
$100,000 – psychological round |
$92,000 – local lows tested in |
$103,000 – highs from 2025 |
50 EMA – currently at $94,482 |
$108,000 – current ATH |
Breaking
above the current all-time high is a necessary condition for considering
ambitious forecasts for 2025 and beyond. Some of these projections are
truly bold.
Bitcoin Price Prediction:
Will BTC Reach $1 Million?
Late last
year, I explored the question, “Will
Bitcoin hit $1 million?” According to Jeff Park, Head of Alpha
Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, this could be possible if the U.S.
government were to adopt a Bitcoin reserve strategy. However, he currently
assigns only a 10% probability to this scenario.
Arthur
Hayes, the Founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has frequently
mentioned such ambitious levels as $1 million. Last week, he appeared as a guest on
Tom Bilyeu’s show, where he discussed the current state of the
cryptocurrency market during a nearly two-hour interview. Hayes suggested that
Bitcoin is gradually heading toward seven-figure valuations and could
potentially reach them within the next five years.
“It’s the bull market. When the music is playing you gotta $DANCE.” ~ Arthur Hayes x Tom Bilyeu#crypto #dance #memecoin #solana #bullrun pic.twitter.com/g9MdkEtIZe
— DANCE MEMECOIN 🤩 (@dancememecoin) January 7, 2025
“Bitcoin
has already survived for 15 years. This makes investors start to believe that
it can last for decades to come.” – Hayes commented. “BTC will be here for
the next 15, 20, 100 years. I think it will be a store of value. I can use it
to pay for things I need, so I’m going to take 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 10% of my
retirement income or savings and start buying that asset now.”
Other
experts, including VanEck analysts, predict more down to earth numbers. Month
ago, they
forecasted that Bitcoin price could reach $180,000 in 2025.
JUST IN: $118 billion VanEck predicts $180,000 #Bitcoin and the U.S. will embrace a Strategic BTC Reserve in 2025 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/s7lnNgkyhn
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 13, 2024
Bitcoin Price, FAQ
Why Is the Price of
Bitcoin Going Up?
Bitcoin’s
price is rising due to a strong bullish pin bar forming above critical support
levels, signaling strong buying activity. Market sentiment improved as Bitcoin
rebounded from a two-month low of $89,398 to trade above $97,000. This movement
reflects consolidation within the $92,000–$98,000 range, supported by technical
indicators and broader market optimism.
Will Bitcoin Rise Again?
Bitcoin’s
price is expected to rise further based on technical analysis. If it breaks
through key resistance at $103,000, it could test the all-time high of
$108,000. Long-term projections remain optimistic, with some experts predicting
significant gains by 2025, assuming market conditions remain favorable.
Why Is Bitcoin So Valuable
Today?
Bitcoin’s
value stems from its status as a decentralized digital asset with limited
supply, serving as a hedge against inflation and a potential store of value.
Its increasing adoption, network security, and potential as a global reserve
asset contribute to its high valuation.
Why Did Bitcoin Fall
Recently?
Bitcoin’s
recent decline was driven by market reactions to expectations of prolonged
higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Strong U.S. economic data
reduced the likelihood of rate cuts, pressuring risk assets like
cryptocurrencies. Additionally, shifting sentiment around pro-crypto policies
under the upcoming U.S. administration added to market uncertainty.
How Much Will Bitcoin Cost
in 2025?
Bitcoin’s
2025 price predictions vary widely. Analysts forecast potential highs ranging
from $180,000 (VanEck) to over $1 million (Arthur Hayes), depending on adoption
trends, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory developments. A more
conservative estimate places Bitcoin at $180,000, reflecting steady growth
without speculative excess.
Bitcoin’s
price (BTC) is making significant gains on Tuesday, January 14, 2025, adding
over $2,000 to its value. However, Monday saw the market shaken, with the price
briefly dropping to a two-month low below the critical $90,000 psychological
level.
In this
article, I review what triggered the sudden drop, why the Bitcoin price is
going up today, and how to interpret the bullish pin bar above the 50-day
exponential moving average—a potentially strong buy signal.
On Tuesday,
Bitcoin is trading above $97,000 on Binance, marking its highest value in a
week. The cryptocurrency is currently up 2.7%, with altcoins following suit.
Ethereum (ETH) has gained 4.9% over the past 24 hours, reaching
$3,200, while XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has
risen 7% to $2.56.
As shown in
the chart below, Bitcoin’s price remains in a consolidation phase that has been
in place since November, with the lower boundary near $92,000 and the upper
limit at its previous high of $98,000.
However,
Monday painted a less optimistic picture as
Bitcoin briefly dipped to just $89,398, causing significant panic and
confusion among retail investors.
The
temporary panic was also evident in the derivatives market: within four days,
investors pulled $1.6 billion from cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs),
marking one of the longest selling streaks in recent times.
Over the
past 24 hours, both bulls and bears have incurred losses. Approximately $500
million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the market, with nearly
equal distribution between long and short positions. Bitcoin accounted for over
20% of this activity, with $44 million liquidated from long positions and $72
million from shorts.
Analysts
attribute the recent decline in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market
to two primary factors: so-called “Trump Trade” and monetary policy.
Why Bitcoin Fell? Fed
Policy and Market Uncertainty Shake BTC Price
The
cryptocurrency market’s downturn is primarily driven by shifting expectations
about Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate policies. Strong economic indicators
have led investors to anticipate a longer period of higher interest rates. The
robust U.S. job market, with 256,000 new nonfarm payrolls and a 4.1%
unemployment rate, has particularly influenced this outlook.
According
to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting,
scheduled for January 29, is just 2.7%. The market is currently pricing in a
stronger likelihood (around 40%) of a cut to the 4.00–4.25% range in the second
half of the year. Earlier expectations were for a more aggressive path of rate
cuts, which was expected to fuel risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and
stocks.
Moreover, the
initial euphoria surrounding Trump’s pro-crypto stance has given way to more
cautious market sentiment. While Trump’s upcoming presidency promised to make
the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world,” investors are now
focusing on immediate economic realities rather than future policy promises.
The
cryptocurrency decline isn’t occurring in isolation. The selloff in Treasury
markets has created a ripple effect across various asset classes, affecting
both crypto and traditional markets. This broader market reaction demonstrates
Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with conventional risk assets.
Will Bitcoin Keep Going
Up? BTC Price Prediction and Technical Analysis
The
candlestick I want to highlight in the technical analysis of Bitcoin ‘s price
chart may seem modest and even barely noticeable. However, in my view, it
carries significant strength and buying potential. This is a bullish pin bar
(or doji candle) with an almost invisible body and a very long lower wick,
indicating that bears were in control but had to concede to bulls by the
session’s close.
What
does the chart show?
- The bullish
pin bar tested the 50 EMA and two critical support levels: $92,000 and $90,000. - All three
levels held, and the price responded with an immediate increase the following
day. - This strong
bullish signal confirmed the lower boundary of the consolidation range,
signaling that buyers are likely to actively defend the green-marked support
zone.
While
Bitcoin remains in consolidation, this reaction suggests, from a purely
technical standpoint, the potential for a move towards $103,000 (the 2025
highs) and ultimately $108,000, the all-time high (ATH) to date.
Bitcoin Price Key Support
and Resistance Levels
Support |
Resistance |
$90,000 – psychological round |
$100,000 – psychological round |
$92,000 – local lows tested in |
$103,000 – highs from 2025 |
50 EMA – currently at $94,482 |
$108,000 – current ATH |
Breaking
above the current all-time high is a necessary condition for considering
ambitious forecasts for 2025 and beyond. Some of these projections are
truly bold.
Bitcoin Price Prediction:
Will BTC Reach $1 Million?
Late last
year, I explored the question, “Will
Bitcoin hit $1 million?” According to Jeff Park, Head of Alpha
Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, this could be possible if the U.S.
government were to adopt a Bitcoin reserve strategy. However, he currently
assigns only a 10% probability to this scenario.
Arthur
Hayes, the Founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has frequently
mentioned such ambitious levels as $1 million. Last week, he appeared as a guest on
Tom Bilyeu’s show, where he discussed the current state of the
cryptocurrency market during a nearly two-hour interview. Hayes suggested that
Bitcoin is gradually heading toward seven-figure valuations and could
potentially reach them within the next five years.
“It’s the bull market. When the music is playing you gotta $DANCE.” ~ Arthur Hayes x Tom Bilyeu#crypto #dance #memecoin #solana #bullrun pic.twitter.com/g9MdkEtIZe
— DANCE MEMECOIN 🤩 (@dancememecoin) January 7, 2025
“Bitcoin
has already survived for 15 years. This makes investors start to believe that
it can last for decades to come.” – Hayes commented. “BTC will be here for
the next 15, 20, 100 years. I think it will be a store of value. I can use it
to pay for things I need, so I’m going to take 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 10% of my
retirement income or savings and start buying that asset now.”
Other
experts, including VanEck analysts, predict more down to earth numbers. Month
ago, they
forecasted that Bitcoin price could reach $180,000 in 2025.
JUST IN: $118 billion VanEck predicts $180,000 #Bitcoin and the U.S. will embrace a Strategic BTC Reserve in 2025 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/s7lnNgkyhn
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 13, 2024
Bitcoin Price, FAQ
Why Is the Price of
Bitcoin Going Up?
Bitcoin’s
price is rising due to a strong bullish pin bar forming above critical support
levels, signaling strong buying activity. Market sentiment improved as Bitcoin
rebounded from a two-month low of $89,398 to trade above $97,000. This movement
reflects consolidation within the $92,000–$98,000 range, supported by technical
indicators and broader market optimism.
Will Bitcoin Rise Again?
Bitcoin’s
price is expected to rise further based on technical analysis. If it breaks
through key resistance at $103,000, it could test the all-time high of
$108,000. Long-term projections remain optimistic, with some experts predicting
significant gains by 2025, assuming market conditions remain favorable.
Why Is Bitcoin So Valuable
Today?
Bitcoin’s
value stems from its status as a decentralized digital asset with limited
supply, serving as a hedge against inflation and a potential store of value.
Its increasing adoption, network security, and potential as a global reserve
asset contribute to its high valuation.
Why Did Bitcoin Fall
Recently?
Bitcoin’s
recent decline was driven by market reactions to expectations of prolonged
higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Strong U.S. economic data
reduced the likelihood of rate cuts, pressuring risk assets like
cryptocurrencies. Additionally, shifting sentiment around pro-crypto policies
under the upcoming U.S. administration added to market uncertainty.
How Much Will Bitcoin Cost
in 2025?
Bitcoin’s
2025 price predictions vary widely. Analysts forecast potential highs ranging
from $180,000 (VanEck) to over $1 million (Arthur Hayes), depending on adoption
trends, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory developments. A more
conservative estimate places Bitcoin at $180,000, reflecting steady growth
without speculative excess.
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