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Japan Has Long Sought More Inflation and a Weak Yen. But Not Like This.

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Japan Has Long Sought More Inflation and a Weak Yen. But Not Like This.

TOKYO — For years, as Japan tried to spice up its chronically weak financial progress, it pursued what its central financial institution noticed as a magic system: stronger inflation and a weaker yen.

It didn’t fairly work as supposed. Inflation by no means met the federal government’s modest goal, regardless of rock-bottom rates of interest and heaps of fiscal stimulus. Staff’ wages stagnated, and progress remained anemic.

Now, Japan is instantly getting what it wished for — simply not in the way in which it had hoped.

Whereas total inflation stays average, meals and vitality prices are rising quickly, an outgrowth not of elevated demand, however of market turmoil associated to the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And the yen has hit a two-decade low in opposition to the greenback, a dizzying drop of greater than 18 p.c since September that has unnerved Japanese companies.

The dual forces are posing yet one more problem for the world’s third-largest financial system as Japan trails different main nations in rising from the financial blow of the pandemic. The rise in costs has spooked Japanese customers used to many years of stability, and the weak yen is beginning to look as if it’s going to depress demand at house greater than stimulate it overseas.

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“The yen depreciation is attacking the weakest level of the financial system,” mentioned Takahide Kiuchi, an economist on the Nomura Analysis Institute who served on the Financial institution of Japan’s coverage board. Households, he mentioned, “are going through a rise in costs of each imported good,” and “the state of affairs is undermining shopper sentiment even upfront of precise inflation.”

The troubles concerning the depreciating yen replicate a gradual shift within the Japanese financial system over the previous decade.

In a earlier period, when Japan was a producing superpower, a weak yen would have been trigger for celebration, making Japanese exports cheaper overseas, growing the worth of income earned abroad and attracting overseas funding.

However exporting is now much less vital to the general Japanese financial system, and firms — searching for to keep away from commerce restrictions and benefit from cheaper labor prices — have begun to provide extra of their merchandise abroad, decreasing the influence of trade charges on their backside line.

A Financial institution of Japan report launched in January discovered that though a weak yen continued to assist the financial system, its constructive influence on exports had shrunk over the last decade main as much as the pandemic. Its contribution to inflation, nonetheless, had elevated throughout the identical interval.

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The pandemic and the struggle in Ukraine have most probably amplified the negatives and diminished the positives, mentioned Naohiko Baba, chief Japan economist at Goldman Sachs. Costs have been rising due to manufacturing shutdowns in China and broader logistics chain snarls, in addition to the struggle’s influence on exports of Ukrainian wheat and Russian gasoline and oil.

For resource-poor Japan, which is extremely reliant on imported gas and meals, the drop within the yen has pushed already excessive costs even increased, with the prices of some requirements rising by double digit percentages. For the primary time in over a decade, customers are paying extra for Asahi beer. And one model of comfort retailer rooster had its first worth improve in additional than 35 years.

“From the angle of exporters, the weaker yen must be useful, however for others, it must be impartial or damaging,” Mr. Baba mentioned. He added that the potential upside of the foreign money devaluation had been additional decreased by Japan’s determination to proceed barring worldwide vacationers, who is perhaps wanting to benefit from favorable trade charges.

There are a selection of causes for the yen’s weak spot. Japan’s financial system has faltered throughout the pandemic, and skyrocketing commodity costs have compelled importers to promote extra yen for {dollars} to pay their payments.

However the primary trigger, specialists say, is Japan’s insistence on sustaining rates of interest at close to zero at the same time as different central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, increase their very own drastically.

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The widening unfold has triggered a rush to purchase {dollars} as buyers search for higher returns. And the exodus appears prone to proceed.

Final week, the Fed raised rates of interest by half a degree, the most important bounce in over 20 years, and it has mentioned that it intends to proceed elevating borrowing prices because it seeks to chill speedy inflation stoked by a booming American job market and rising wages.

Wages in Japan, against this, have barely budged, and the nation’s excessive employment ranges have remained comparatively regular. That implies that Japan’s inflation, which over all stays beneath the federal government’s goal of two p.c, is most probably pushed by supply-side points attributable to the struggle and the pandemic, not the elevated demand that low rates of interest are supposed to provide.

In concept, the Financial institution of Japan may stanch the yen’s devaluation by elevating rates of interest. However its governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, whose time period ends subsequent April, appears set to stay together with his insurance policies till he achieves inflation of each the standard and amount he envisioned practically a decade in the past when he was nominated by then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Modest inflation pushed by shopper demand, the pondering goes, would create a virtuous cycle of financial enlargement: Corporations’ income would develop, spurring funding, wage progress and home consumption.

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In late April, Mr. Kuroda doubled down on his dedication to low charges, growing the Financial institution of Japan’s purchases of presidency bonds. The announcement was adopted by a yen sell-off.

Even when Mr. Kuroda needed to boost charges, doing so could set off a cascade of financial penalties, mentioned Gene Park, a professor of political science and worldwide relations at Loyola Marymount College who research Japanese financial coverage.

Japan has come to depend on massive spending to stimulate its financial system, Mr. Park mentioned, and elevating charges may each make that method tougher to proceed and make Japan’s nationwide debt, which stands at over 250 p.c of its annual financial output, tougher to service.

Whereas economists disagree about whether or not that degree of debt is sustainable, policymakers should not wanting to probability it.

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“Excessive inflation is politically poisonous, and making an attempt to appropriate for it, the drugs, can also be a particularly bitter tablet,” Mr. Park mentioned. “In the event that they increase rates of interest, that’s additionally going to be unpopular.”

Like Mr. Kuroda, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has dismissed recommendations that the Financial institution of Japan ought to search to strengthen the yen by elevating rates of interest.

As a substitute, he has sought to fight rising costs with extra stimulus. This 12 months, Parliament has signed off on a number of rounds of subsidies to Japanese oil firms which are supposed to decrease gasoline costs. In April, lawmakers introduced an extra spherical of subsidies and direct money funds of about $380 to households with youngsters.

Some politicians have instructed that the Financial institution of Japan may shore up the yen’s worth via foreign money market interventions, promoting its personal greenback holdings to raise the Japanese foreign money. However that’s an costly proposition that’s unlikely to have a lot impact, mentioned Saori Katada, a professor of worldwide relations on the College of Southern California who research Japan’s commerce and financial coverage.

“Nowadays, the central financial institution has already given up on intervening available in the market,” Ms. Katada mentioned. “The entire market has gotten so massive that the precise intervention doesn’t change it. It would change it for a number of days, nevertheless it gained’t change the development.”

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With few sensible choices, the one factor Japan can attempt to do is “discuss the yen up,” she mentioned, with officers making a full-court press to persuade markets that they are going to defend the foreign money’s worth. Nevertheless, “that requires different companions within the U.S. and Europe to assist,” she mentioned, and they’re too busy dealing with their very own economies’ issues to commit a lot thought to Japan.

“They don’t care an excessive amount of concerning the depreciating yen for the time being,” she mentioned.

Which means Japan might have to simply cling robust till issues flip round, mentioned Sayuri Shirai, an economics professor at Keio College in Tokyo and a former member of the Financial institution of Japan’s board.

U.S. rates of interest will “not develop perpetually,” she mentioned. “I feel we shouldn’t be panicked.”

Hisako Ueno contributed reporting.

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4 Takeaways From the Arguments Before the Supreme Court in the TikTok Case

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4 Takeaways From the Arguments Before the Supreme Court in the TikTok Case

The Supreme Court on Friday grappled over a law that could determine the fate of TikTok, an enormously popular social media platform that has about 170 million users.

Congress enacted the law out of concern that the app, whose owner is based in China, is susceptible to the influence of the Chinese government and posed a national risk. The measure would effectively ban TikTok from operating in the United States unless its owner, ByteDance, sells it by Jan. 19.

Here are some key takeaways:

While the justices across the ideological spectrum asked tough questions of both sides, the overall tone and thrust appeared to suggest greater skepticism toward the arguments by lawyers for TikTok and its users that the First Amendment barred Congress from enacting the law.

The questioning opened with two conservative members of the court, Justice Clarence Thomas and Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., suggesting that it was not TikTok, an American company, but its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, that was directly affected by the law.

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Another conservative, Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, focused on the risk that the Chinese government could use information TikTok is gathering on tens of millions of American teenagers and twentysomethings to eventually “develop spies, turn people, blackmail people” when they grow older and go to work for national security agencies or the military.

Justice Elena Kagan, a liberal, asked why TikTok could not just create or buy another algorithm rather than using ByteDance’s.

And another liberal, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, said she believed the law was less about speech than about association. She suggested that barring TikTok from associating with a Chinese company was akin to barring Americans from associating with foreign terrorist groups for national security reasons. (The Supreme Court has upheld that as constitutional.)

Still, several justices were skeptical about a major part of the government’s justification for the law: the risk that China might “covertly” make TikTok manipulate the content shown to Americans or collect user data to achieve its geopolitical aims.

Both Justice Kagan and Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, a conservative, stressed that everybody now knows that China is behind TikTok. They appeared interested in whether the government’s interest in preventing “covert” leveraging of the platform by a foreign adversary could be achieved in a less heavy-handed manner, like appending a label warning users of that risk.

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Two lawyers argued that the law violates the First Amendment: Noel Francisco, representing both TikTok and ByteDance, and Jeffrey Fisher, representing TikTok users. Both suggested that concerns about potential manipulation by the Chinese government of the information American users see on the platform were insufficient to justify the law.

Mr. Francisco contended that the government in a free country “has no valid interest in preventing foreign propaganda” and cannot constitutionally try to keep Americans from being “persuaded by Chinese misinformation.” That is targeting the content of speech, which the First Amendment does not permit, he said.

Mr. Fisher asserted that fears that China might use its control over the platform to promote posts sowing doubts about democracy or pushing pro-China and anti-American views were a weaker justification for interfering in free speech than concerns about foreign terrorism.

“The government just doesn’t get to say ‘national security’ and the case is over,” Mr. Fisher said, adding, “It’s not enough to say ‘national security’ — you have to say ‘what is the real harm?’”

The solicitor general, Elizabeth B. Prelogar, argued that Congress had lawful authority to enact the statute and that it did not violate the First Amendment. She said it was important to recognize that the law leaves speech on TikTok unrestricted once the platform is freed from foreign control.

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“All of the same speech that’s happening on TikTok could happen post-divestiture,” she said. “The act doesn’t regulate that at all. So it’s not saying you can’t have pro-China speech, you can’t have anti-American speech. It’s not regulating the algorithm.”

She added: “TikTok, if it were able to do so, could use precisely the same algorithm to display the same content by the same users. All the act is doing is trying to surgically remove the ability of a foreign adversary nation to get our data and to be able to exercise control over the platform.”

President-elect Donald J. Trump has asked the Supreme Court to issue an injunction delaying the law from taking effect until after he assumes office on Jan. 20.

Mr. Trump once shared the view that Chinese control of TikTok was an intolerable national security risk, but reversed course around the time he met with a billionaire Republican donor with a stake in its parent company.

If the court does uphold the law, TikTok would effectively be banned in the United States on Jan. 19, Mr. Francisco said. He reiterated a request that the court temporarily pause the law from taking effect to push back that deadline, saying it would “simply buy everybody a little breathing space.” It might be a “different world” for TikTok after Jan. 20, he added.

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But there was scant focus by the justices on that idea, suggesting that they did not take it seriously. Mr. Trump’s brief requesting that the court punt the issue past the end of President Biden’s term so he could handle it — signed by his pick to be the next solicitor general, D. John Sauer — was long on rhetoric extolling Mr. Trump, but short on substance.

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'We will not be closing.' Amid the fires, employers and employees walk a fine line between work and safety

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'We will not be closing.' Amid the fires, employers and employees walk a fine line between work and safety

When Brigitte Tran arrived Wednesday morning at the Rodeo Drive boutique where she works as a sales associate, she was on edge.

Smoke from multiple wildfires raging across Los Angeles County billowed overhead. The luxury shopping corridor usually bustling with tourists appeared a ghost town.

Tran’s co-worker texted their boss to let her know neighboring stores had closed, and described the acrid smoke in the air. But the woman, at home in Orange County, did not seem to grasp their concerns. “We will not be closing unless the mall instructs us to close,” she replied.

Tran, who, fearing professional repercussions, asked that her place of work not be named, grew more anxious as the hours ticked by. Around 3 p.m., she and the two other employees working that day mutinied. They packed up, told the security guard to head home, and locked the doors a few hours before closing time.

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As the wildfires have raged across Los Angeles County, choking the air, closing schools and forcing tens of thousands of people to evacuate, employers and employees alike have had to manage a difficult balancing act between work and well being. Some employers responded swiftly to the crisis, shutting down offices and shifting to remote work, providing outdoor workers with masks and other protective equipment, and offering support for employees forced to evacuate. Others have been less adept, clumsy in their communications or wholly unmoved by worker concerns — sparking anger among their ranks as a result.

The fires have underscored the need for companies to have a clear plan in place to respond to emergencies, said Jonathan Porter, a meteorologist at private weather forecaster AccuWeather. The obligation, he said, goes beyond monitoring whether an office is in an evacuation zone. For example, as the current devastation unfolds, businesses should be aware of the “copious amounts of dangerous smoke that’s wafting into the air” and be prepared to provide outdoor workers with quality respirators or move them away from polluted air.

Some employers gave employees flexibility. Snap, the Santa Monica-based creator of the photo messaging app Snapchat, for example, kept its offices open on Wednesday but encouraged employees to work remotely, said a company spokesperson.

Others changed course after fielding criticism.

An announcement by UCLA that the campus would remain open for classes and regular operations on Wednesday drew anger from some instructors and students on social media.

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Victor Narro, project director for the UCLA Labor Center and a lecturer on campus, said in a post on X he would ignore UCLA’s mandate and hold an optional class online.

“Students have been up all night panicked about sleeping through evacuation orders, winds still high, branches falling all over Westwood, power outages across city, & our new chancellor (on his 2nd day) thought this should be his first bold call…” wrote Nour Joudah, an assistant professor in UCLA’s Asian American Studies Department, in another X post.

That evening, UCLA changed course as conditions worsened, announcing it would close campus.

On Saturday, UCLA Chancellor Julio Frenk released a statement saying classes would be held remotely for at least another week and campus operations would be curtailed. “We ask for continued flexibility and understanding as we all work through these difficult times,” Frenk wrote.

But for many workers, the chaos of the last few dayshas left them feeling like they are fending for themselves.

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Tim Hernandez, a driver with Amazon Flex, an on-demand Uber-like program in which people use their own cars to deliver packages, was assigned a route Tuesday along the Pacific Coast Highway toward Malibu, which was rife with closures.

When he questioned whether making the delivery was safe, he said dispatchers at a Amazon facility in Camarillo brushed him off, leaving him to choose between concerns for his safety and worries that his rating in the Flex app would be hurt if he refused to go. He decided to try to make the deliveries, battling gusts of wind that knocked him over at one point. He lost cell signal, however, and was forced to return to the warehouse without completing the vast majority.

And when he arrived for his shift Tuesday, Alfred Muñoz, 43, an Amazon delivery driver who works out of a warehouse in the City of Industry, said he was handed an N95 mask but given little other instruction.

“It was just kind of business as usual,” Muñoz said.

High package counts and the number of stops on his assigned routes this week have made work even more difficult. On Tuesday, with wind gusts whipping debris around making it difficult to see, he had about 180 stops and 290 packages to deliver. On Thursday, the air thick with smoke and ash, he had more than 300 packages.

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He woke up Thursday morning with a bloody nose and a sooty black crust in the corners of his eyes.

In response to a request for comment, Montana MacLachlan, an Amazon spokesperson, said the company was “closely monitoring the wildfires across Southern California and adjusting our operations to keep our employees and those delivering for us safe.”

“If a driver arrives at a delivery location and the conditions are not safe to make a delivery, they are not expected to do so and the driver’s performance will not be impacted,” she said.

At the Brentwood location of popular Italian eatery Jon & Vinny’s, staff complained of headaches and sore throats in a text message group chat. An employee, who asked not to be named fearing retaliation at work, said that on Tuesday, staff huddled around an iPad with a fire map pulled up to keep an eye on the expanding evacuation zone. From the front of the restaurant, they could see the glow of the Palisades fire.

The employee said they were frustrated management kept the restaurant open when the perimeter of the mandatory evacuation zone was just two blocks away. On Wednesday, every server scheduled to work called in to say they were not coming, the employee said.

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A spokesperson for Joint Venture Restaurant Group, which owns Jon & Vinny’s, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

During natural disasters and extreme weather, employers’ choices can sometimes mean life or death, said David Michaels, a professor at the Milken Institute School of Public Health and a former assistant secretary of labor for the Occupational Safety and Health Administration.

He pointed to recent floods from Hurricane Helene that killed several workers at a plastics manufacturer. The tragedy has drawn scrutiny from state investigators, and a wrongful death lawsuit accuses the company of requiring employees to stay on site amid flooding after they requested permission to leave.

“It’s incumbent on employers to ensure the safety of their workers,” Michaels said. “The safety of their employees must take precedence over business concerns.”

Yasha Timenovich, 48, a driver for rideshare app Lyft and food delivery platform DoorDash, is more worried about declining earnings than on-the-job safety. With many restaurants and other businesses closed and would-be customers fleeing the city, he said that rides and deliveries have been slow. Traffic patterns have been strange and unpredictable with families piling into vehicles to flee fires.

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Timenovich, who faced an order to evacuate his Hollywood apartment with his fiance and 6-year-old daughter Wednesday night, said he planned to stay with relatives for a few days in San Luis Obispo, where he hopes business will be better.

“I’m going to get out of here because it’s too crazy with these fires,” Timenovich said.

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Scott Bessent, Trump’s Billionaire Treasury Pick, Will Shed Assets to Avoid Conflicts

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Scott Bessent, Trump’s Billionaire Treasury Pick, Will Shed Assets to Avoid Conflicts

Scott Bessent, the billionaire hedge fund manager whom President-elect Donald J. Trump picked to be his Treasury secretary, plans to divest from dozens of funds, trusts and investments in preparation to become the nation’s top economic policymaker.

Those plans were released on Saturday along with the publication of an ethics agreement and financial disclosures that Mr. Bessent submitted ahead of his Senate confirmation hearing next Thursday.

The documents show the extent of the wealth of Mr. Bessent, whose assets and investments appear to be worth in excess of $700 million. Mr. Bessent was formerly the top investor for the billionaire liberal philanthropist George Soros and has been a major Republican donor and adviser to Mr. Trump.

If confirmed as Treasury secretary, Mr. Bessent, 62, will steer Mr. Trump’s economic agenda of cutting taxes, rolling back regulations and imposing tariffs as he seeks to renegotiate trade deals. He will also play a central role in the Trump administration’s expected embrace of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

Although Mr. Trump won the election by appealing to working-class voters who have been dogged by high prices, he has turned to wealthy Wall Street investors such as Mr. Bessent and Howard Lutnick, a billionaire banker whom he tapped to be commerce secretary, to lead his economic team. Linda McMahon, another billionaire, has been picked as education secretary, and Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, is leading an unofficial agency known as the Department of Government Efficiency.

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In a letter to the Treasury Department’s ethics office, Mr. Bessent outlined the steps he would take to “avoid any actual or apparent conflict of interest in the event that I am confirmed for the position of secretary of the Department of Treasury.”

Mr. Bessent said he would shutter Key Square Capital Management, the investment firm that he founded, and resign from his Bessent-Freeman Family Foundation and from Rockefeller University, where he has been chairman of the investment committee.

The financial disclosure form, which provides ranges for the value of his assets, reveals that Mr. Bessent owns as much as $25 million of farmland in North Dakota, which earns an income from soybean and corn production. He also owns a property in the Bahamas that is worth as much as $25 million. Last November, Mr. Bessent put his historic pink mansion in Charleston, S.C., on the market for $22.5 million.

Mr. Bessent is selling several investments that could pose potential conflicts of interest including a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund; an account that trades the renminbi, China’s currency; and his stake in All Seasons, a conservative publisher. He also has a margin loan, or line of credit, with Goldman Sachs of more than $50 million.

As an investor, Mr. Bessent has long wagered on the rising strength of the dollar and has betted against, or “shorted,” the renminbi, according to a person familiar with Mr. Bessent’s strategy who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss his portfolio. Mr. Bessent gained notoriety in the 1990s by betting against the British pound and earning his firm, Soros Fund Management, $1 billion. He also made a high-profile bet against the Japanese yen.

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Mr. Bessent, who will be overseeing the U.S. Treasury market, holds over $100 million in Treasury bills.

Cabinet officials are required to divest certain holdings and investments to avoid the potential for conflicts of interest. Although this can be an onerous process, it has some potential tax benefits.

The tax code contains a provision that allows securities to be sold and the capital gains tax on such sales deferred if the full proceeds are used to buy Treasury securities and certain money-market funds. The tax continues to be deferred until the securities or money-market funds are sold.

Even while adhering to the ethics guidelines, questions about conflicts of interest can still emerge.

Mr. Trump’s Treasury secretary during his first term, Steven Mnuchin, divested from his Hollywood film production company after joining the administration. However, as he was negotiating a trade deal in 2018 with China — an important market for the U.S. film industry — ethics watchdogs raised questions about whether Mr. Mnuchin had conflicts because he had sold his interest in the company to his wife.

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Mr. Bessent was chosen for the Treasury after an internal tussle among Mr. Trump’s aides over the job. Mr. Lutnick, Mr. Trump’s transition team co-chair and the chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald, made a late pitch to secure the Treasury secretary role for himself before Mr. Trump picked him to be Commerce secretary.

During that fight, which spilled into view, critics of Mr. Bessent circulated documents disparaging his performance as a hedge fund manager.

Mr. Bessent’s most recent hedge fund, Key Square Capital, launched to much fanfare in 2016, garnering $4.5 billion in investor money, including $2 billion from Mr. Soros, but manages much less now. A fund he ran in the early 2000s had a similarly unremarkable performance.

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