Business
Column: Did business leaders do enough to head off Trump's tariff saber-rattling? Obviously not
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers posted some well-chosen words Saturday about Donald Trump’s bewildering and pointless tariff war, which had been launched earlier that day.
In a string of tweets he called the 25% tariffs Trump proposed on goods from Canada and Mexico “inexplicable and dangerous,” joined the near-unanimous chorus of economists in predicting that the tariffs would raise domestic prices on “automobiles, gasoline, and all kinds of things that people buy,” and noted that the arbitrary imposition of tariffs would lead other countries to view the U.S. as a “bad partner,” which will “undermine our economy, our power and our national security.”
The tariffs, Summers wrote, are “an important test for the business community,” which knows that “this is not a pro-business strategy … I hope business leaders have the courage to say so.”
CEOs have kept their powder dry from public discourse knowing that Trump hates the humiliation of being trapped in a corner and can lash out like a wounded animal.
— Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, Yale
If only.
Summers’ plea came late, after the tariffs were announced. But with a few notable exceptions, America’s business leaders were silent about the sheer madness of Trump’s launching a trade war without legitimate justification.
In the months, weeks and days before the announcement, they spoke vaguely about how they would navigate tariff barriers affecting their own industries, but little about the broader ramifications. And even the fiercest critics of the tariffs bent a knee to Trump’s ostensible but exaggerated rationale for the tariffs, the flow of fentanyl and undocumented workers coming into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico.
For the most part, the business community’s pushback against tariffs played out via news releases covered largely by the business press, if at all. The impending economic crisis warranted a more direct response in which business leaders tried to seize the stage back from Trump, outlining in ways that ordinary Americans would understand the costs that every American household will shoulder if the tariffs continue.
They didn’t do that.
Business leaders may have calculated that Trump’s breast-beating about imposing higher tariffs was just talk, or part of a negotiating strategy. As it happened, they appear to be right. Monday, hours before the tariffs were to take effect, Trump backed away, agreeing to pause the tariffs for a month, pending negotiations with both cross-border partners.
But Trump’s actions rattled the financial markets, which didn’t fully recover losses sustained while the tariffs appeared to be imminent. Also rattled was the faith of foreign governments in America’s steadfastness, which may not recover as long as Trump is in the White House.
“CEOs have kept their powder dry from public discourse knowing that Trump hates the humiliation of being trapped in a corner and can lash out like a wounded animal,” says Yale business professor Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, whose insights into chief executive thinking are unmatched.
Let’s go deeper into the business community’s unsuccessful campaign, such as it was, against the tariffs.
On Saturday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce called foul on Trump’s citing the Carter-era International Emergency Economic Powers Act as the statute giving him unilateral authority to impose tariffs by citing an “emergency situation” caused by “illegal aliens and drugs” coming from beyond the border.
“The imposition of tariffs under IEEPA is unprecedented, won’t solve these problems, and will only raise prices for American families and upend supply chains, chamber Senior Vice President John Murphy said.
On Jan. 16, in her annual address on the state of American business, chamber CEO Suzanne P. Clark warned that “blanket tariffs would worsen the cost-of-living crisis, forcing Americans to pay even more for daily essentials like groceries, gas, furniture, appliances, and clothing. And retaliation by our trading partners will hit our farmers and manufacturers hard, with ripple effects across the economy.”
The National Assn. of Manufacturers also issued a strongly worded response, noting that “a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico threatens to upend the very supply chains that have made U.S. manufacturing more competitive globally. The ripple effects will be severe, particularly for small and medium-sized manufacturers that lack the flexibility and capital to rapidly find alternative suppliers or absorb skyrocketing energy costs. These businesses — employing millions of American workers — will face significant disruptions.”
From there, however, there’s a sharp drop-off in the vigor of comments from American industry about tariffs with the potential to upend the global economy. At General Motors, the American automaker most exposed to the impact of the tariffs, CEO Mary Barra wanly addressed the issue during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings announcement conference call Jan. 28.
Barra noted in response to a question that GM builds trucks in Mexico and Canada, “so we can look at where the international markets are being sourced from. So there’s plays that we can do on that perspective to minimize the impact if there are tariffs either on Canada or Mexico…. We’re doing the planning and have several levers that we can pull.”
That was it; no observations about tariff policy itself or its broader economic implications.
A spokesperson told me Monday that the company had “no new statements … at this time” and referred me to its trade groups, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation and the American Automotive Policy Council.
The council has merely asked that its cars and parts be exempted from any new tariffs without making any observations about the consequences of a tariff war. On Saturday, the alliance observed that “seamless automotive trade in North America accounts for $300 billion in economic value” and added, “We look forward to working with the administration on solutions that achieve the president’s goals and preserve a healthy, competitive auto industry in America.”
Drug overdose deaths have been falling sharply since mid-2023, raising questions about Trump’s rationale for tariffs at the Mexican and Canadian borders.
(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
I’ve written before that counting on corporate leaders to stand firm against policy threats to American democracy or the U.S. economy is a mug’s game. But these tariffs took direct aim at American businesses, which should have gotten them more stirred up.
The Business Roundtable, an organization of CEOs of top U.S. corporations, was especially mealymouthed. In a statement issued Sunday, it said, “We agree with the President’s goals of securing our borders and stopping the flow of illegal drugs into the country…. Business Roundtable hopes that Mexico, Canada and the U.S. can quickly reach a deal to strengthen security at the border.”
I asked the Roundtable whether it had anything to add, and got a rather snarky response from Michael Steel, its head of communications, that my question “seems a bit OTBE’ed at the moment.”
Steel meant “overtaken by events,” by which he was referring to an announcement Monday that Trump had decided to put Mexican tariffs on hold for a month, based on Mexico’s purported agreement to send 10,000 troops to the border.
As it happens, Mexico had already reached a similar agreement with the Biden administration without Biden’s having had to threaten to trash the global economy. There’s no indication that the 10,000 troops will be additional to the 15,000 troops deployed earlier. Trump is also said to be planning a talk with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Could American CEOs have headed off the tariffs chaos either by a more focused publicity campaign or more jawboning with Trump? That’s impossible to say, in part because business leaders haven’t been out in front of Trump’s tariff policy in any broadly public way, and because no one can be sure why Trump had decided to impose steep tariffs on America’s most important trading partners without provocation.
More than two dozen CEOs had contacted Trump privately, Sonnenfeld told me, but their efforts to dissuade him plainly didn’t stop him from announcing the tariffs.
The corporate reaction to Trump’s tariff obsession shows that business leaders are still afraid of confronting Trump directly even as his policies threaten to erode their sales and profits, not to mention to undermine the rule of law in the U.S. in ways they will regret.
We know this because even the sternest statements from business organizations embraced Trump’s stated rationale of securing the borders. As a preface to its statement objecting to the tariffs, the Chamber of Commerce said “the President is right to focus on major problems like our broken border and the scourge of fentanyl.”
This isn’t an expression of fact about the border; it’s a shibboleth, designed to communicate that, all things considered, the chamber is still down with Trump’s leadership in general terms.
The truth is that Trump’s rationalizations don’t stand up to scrutiny. Under Biden, enforcement at the Mexican border was sharply stepped up, with 54,000 “encounters” recorded in September 2024, down from 250,000 in December 2023, according to the Migrant Policy Institute. In part this was the result of stronger enforcement by the Mexican government.
On fentanyl, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Drug Enforcement Administration both documented major victories in stemming the flow of illegal fentanyl into the country and sharply reduced overdose deaths. Drug overdoses peaked at about 114,000 in the year that ended June 2023, were down to less than 90,000 in the year that ended August 2024 and seemed destined to continue falling. Trump has claimed that 300,000 people are dying every year from drugs smuggled from Mexico, but that figure has never been true.
Nor is fentanyl smuggling a significant issue on the Canadian border; in fiscal 2024, U.S. agencies seized 21,000 pounds of fentanyl at the Mexican border, but only 43 pounds at the Canadian border.
All this points to the basic instability of American foreign relations in the Trump regime. Our business leaders need to acknowledge that such a situation won’t be good for anybody, and poses a particular threat to our relations with countries that have been loyal allies of the U.S.
That gives new meaning to the quip once offered by Henry Kissinger, in a different context: “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
Business
California led the nation in job cuts last year, but the pace slowed in December
Buffeted by upheavals in the tech and entertainment industries, California led the nation in job cuts last year — but the pace of layoffs slowed sharply in December both in the state and nationwide as company hiring plans picked up.
State employers announced just 2,739 layoffs in December, well down from the 14,288 they said they would cut in November.
Still, with the exception of Washington, D.C., California led all states in 2025 with 175,761 job losses, according to a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The slowdown in December losses was experienced nationwide, where U.S.-based employers announced 35,553 job cuts for the month. That was down 50% from the 71,321 job cuts announced in November and down 8% from the 38,792 job cuts reported the same month last year.
That amounted to good news in a year that saw the nation’s economy suffer through 1.2 million layoffs — the most since the economic destruction caused by the pandemic, which led to 2.3 million job losses in 2020, according to the report.
“The year closed with the fewest announced layoff plans all year. While December is typically slow, this coupled with higher hiring plans, is a positive sign after a year of high job cutting plans,” Andy Challenger, a workplace expert at the firm, said in a statement.
The California economy was lashed all year by tumult in Hollywood, which has been hit by a slowdown in filming as well as media and entertainment industry consolidation.
Meanwhile, the advent of artificial intelligence boosted capital spending in Silicon Valley at the expense of jobs, though Challenger said the losses were also the result of “overhiring over the last decade.”
Workers were laid off by the thousands at Intel, Salesforce, Meta, Paramount, Walt Disney Co. and elsewhere. Apple even announced its own rare round of cuts.
The 75,506 job losses in technology California experienced last year dwarfed every other industry, according to Challenger’s data. It attributed 10,908 of the cuts to AI.
Entertainment, leisure and media combined saw 17,343 announced layoffs.
The losses pushed the state’s unemployment rate up a tenth of a point to 5.6% in September, the highest in the nation aside from Washington, D.C., according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released in December.
September also marked the fourth straight month the state lost jobs, though they only amounted to 4,500 in September, according to the bureau data.
Nationally, Washington, D.C., took the biggest jobs hits last year due to Elon Musk’s initiative to purge the federal workforce. The district’s 303,778 announced job losses dwarfed those of California, though there none reported for December.
The government sector led all industries last year with job losses of 308,167 nationwide, while technology led in private sector job cuts with 154,445. Other sector with losses approaching 100,000 were warehousing and retail.
Despite the attention focused on President Trump’s tariffs regime, they were only cited nationally for 7,908 job cuts last year, with none announced in December.
New York experienced 109,030 announced losses, the second most of any state. Georgia was third at 80,893.
These latest figures follow a report from the Labor Department this week that businesses and government agencies posted 7.1 million open jobs at the end of November, down from 7.4 million in October. Layoffs also dropped indicating the economy is experiencing a “low-hire, low-fire” job market.
At the same time, the U.S. economy grew at an 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, surprising economists with the fastest expansion in two years, as consumer and government spending, as well as exports, grew. However, the government shutdown, which halted data collection, may have distorted the results.
Still, December’s announced hiring plans also were positive. Last month, employers nationwide said they would hire 10,496 employees, the highest total for the month since 2022 when they announced plans to hire 51,693 workers, Challenger said.
The December plans contrasted sharply with the 12-month figure. Last year, U.S. employers announced they would hire 507,647 workers, down 34% from 2024.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Business
Commentary: Yes, California should tax billionaires’ wealth. Here’s why
That shrill, high-pitched squeal you’ve been hearing lately? Don’t bother trying to adjust your TV or headphones, or calling your doctor for a tinnitis check. It’s just America’s beleaguered billionaires keening over a proposal in California to impose a one-time wealth tax of up to 5% on fortunes of more than $1 billion.
The billionaires lobby has been hitting social media in force to decry the proposed voter initiative, which has only started down the path toward an appearance on November’s state ballot. Supporters say it could raise $100 billion over five years, to be spent mostly on public education, food assistance and California’s medicaid program, which face severe cutbacks thanks to federal budget-cutting.
As my colleagues Seema Mehta and Caroline Petrow-Cohen report, the measure has the potential to become a political flash point.
The rich will scream The pundits and editorial-board writers will warn of dire consequences…a stock market crash, a depression, unemployment, and so on. Notice that the people making such objections would have something personal to lose.
— Donald Trump advocating a wealth tax, in 2000
Its well-heeled critics include Jessie Powell, co-founder of the Bay Area-based crypto exchange platform Kraken, who warned on X that billionaires would flee the state, taking with them “all of their spending, hobbies, philanthropy and jobs.”
Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya claimed on X that “$500 billion in wealth has already fled the state” but didn’t name names. San Francisco venture investor Ron Conway has seeded the opposition coffers with a $100,000 contribution. And billionaire Peter Thiel disclosed on Dec. 31 that he has opened a new office in Miami, in a state that not only has no wealth tax but no income tax.
Already Gov. Gavin Newsom, a likely candidate for the Democratic nomination for president, has warned against the tax, arguing that it’s impractical for one state to go it alone when the wealthy can pick up and move to any other state to evade it.
On the other hand. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont), usually an ally of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, supports the measure: “It’s a matter of values,” he posted on X. “We believe billionaires can pay a modest wealth tax so working-class Californians have Medicaid.”
Not every billionaire has decried the wealth tax idea. Jensen Huang, the CEO of the soaring AI chip company Nvidia — and whose estimated net worth is more than $160 billion — expressed indifference about the California proposal during an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday.
“We chose to live in Silicon Valley and whatever taxes, I guess, they would like to apply, so be it,” he said. “I’m perfectly fine with it. It never crossed my mind once.”
And in 2000, another plutocrat well known to Americans proposed a one-time tax of 14.25% on taxpayers with a net worth of $10 million or more. That was Donald Trump, in a book-length campaign manifesto titled “The America We Deserve.”
“The rich will scream,” Trump predicted. “The pundits and editorial-board writers will warn of dire consequences … a stock market crash, a depression, unemployment, and so on. Notice that the people making such objections would have something personal to lose.” (Thanks due to Tim Noah of the New Republic for unearthing this gem.)
Trump’s book appeared while he was contemplating his first presidential campaign, in which he presented himself as a defender of the ordinary American. His ghostwriter, Dave Shiflett, later confessed that he regarded the book as “my first published work of fiction.”
All that said, let’s take a closer look at the proposed initiative and its backers’ motivation. It’s gaining nationwide attention because California has more billionaires than any other state.
The California measure’s principal sponsor, the Service Employees International Union, and its allies will have to gather nearly 875,000 signatures of registered voters by June 24 to reach the ballot. The opposition is gearing up behind the catchphrase “Stop the Squeeze” — an odd choice for a rallying cry, since it’s hard to imagine the average voter getting all het up about multibillionaires getting squoze.
The measure would exempt directly held real estate, pensions and retirement accounts from the calculation of net worth. The tax can be paid over five years (with a fee charged for deferrals). It applies to billionaires residing in California as of Jan. 1, 2026; their net worth would be assessed as of Dec. 31 this year. The measure’s drafters estimate that about 200 of the wealthiest California households would be subject to the tax.
The initiative is explicitly designed to claw back some of the tax breaks that billionaires received from the recent budget bill passed by the Republican-dominated Congress and signed on July 4 by President Trump. The so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act will funnel as much as $1 trillion in tax benefits to the wealthy over the next decade, while blowing a hole in state and local budgets for healthcare and other needs.
California will lose about $19 billion a year for Medi-Cal alone. According to the measure’s drafters, that could mean the loss of Medi-Cal coverage for as many as 1.6 million Californians. Even those who retain their eligibility will have to pay more out of pocket due to provisions in the budget bill.
The measure’s critics observe that wealth taxes have had something of a checkered history worldwide, although they often paint a more dire picture than the record reflects. Twelve European countries imposed broad-based wealth taxes as recently as 1995, but these have been repealed by eight of them.
According to the Tax Foundation Europe, that leaves wealth taxes in effect only in Colombia, Norway, Spain and Switzerland. But that’s not exactly correct. Wealth taxes still exist in France and Italy, where they’re applied there to real estate as property taxes, and in Belgium, where they’re levied on securities accounts valued at more than 1 million euros, or about $1.16 million.
Switzerland’s wealth tax is by far the oldest, having been enacted in 1840. It’s levied annually by individual cantons on all residents, at rates reaching up to about 1% of net worth, after deductions and exclusions for certain categories of assets.
The European countries that repealed their wealth taxes did so for varied reasons. Most were responding at least partially to special pleading by the wealthy, who threatened to relocate to friendlier jurisdictions in a continent-wide low-tax contest.
That’s the principal threat raised by opponents of the California proposal. But there are grounds to question whether the effect would be so stark. For one thing, notes UC Berkeley economist Gabriel Zucman, an advocate of wealth taxes generally, “it has become impossible to avoid the tax by leaving the state.” Billionaires who hadn’t already established residency elsewhere by Jan. 1 this year have missed a crucial deadline.
The initiative’s drafters question the assumption that millionaires invariably move from high- to low-tax jurisdictions, citing several studies, including one from 2016 based on IRS statistics showing that elites are generally unwilling to move to exploit tax advantages across state lines.
As for the argument that billionaires could avoid the tax by moving assets out of the state, “the location of the assets doesn’t matter,” Zucman told me by email. “Taxpayers would be liable for the tax on their worldwide assets.”
One issue raised by the burgeoning controversy over the California proposal is how to extract a fair share of public revenue from plutocrats, whose wealth has surged higher while their effective tax rates have declined to historically low levels.
There can be no doubt that in tax terms, America’s wealthiest families make out like bandits. The total effective tax rate of the 400 richest U.S. households, according to an analysis by Zucman, his UC Berkeley colleague Emmanuel Saez, and their co-authors, “averaged 24% in 2018-2020 compared with 30% for the full population and 45% for top labor income earners.” This is largely due to the preferences granted by the federal capital gains tax, which is levied only when a taxable asset is sold and even then at a lower rate than the rate on wage income.
The late tax expert at USC, Ed Kleinbard, used to describe the capital gains tax as our only voluntary tax, since wealthy families can avoid selling their stocks and bonds indefinitely but can borrow against them, tax-free, for funds to live on; if they die before selling, the imputed value of their holdings is “stepped up” to their value at their passing, extinguishing forever what could be decades of embedded tax liabilities. (The practice has been labeled “buy, borrow, die.”)
Californians have recently voted to redress the increasing inequality of our tax system. Voters approved what was dubbed a “millionaires tax” in 2012, imposing a surcharge of 1% to 3% on incomes over $263,000 (for joint filers, $526,000). In 2016, voters extended the surcharge to 2030 from the original phase-out date of 2016. That measure passed overwhelmingly, by a 2-to-1 majority, easily surpassing that of the original initiative.
But it may be that California’s ability to tax billionaires’ income has been pretty much tapped out. Some have argued that one way to obtain more revenue from wealthy households is to eliminate any preferential rate on capital gains and other investment income, but that’s not an option for California, since the state doesn’t offer a preferential tax rate on that income, unlike the federal government and many other states. The unearned income is taxed at the same rate as wages.
One virtue of the California proposal is that, even if it fails to get enacted or even to reach the ballot, it may trigger more discussion of options for taxing plutocratic fortunes. One suggestion came from hedge fund operator Bill Ackman, who reviled the California proposal on X as “an expropriation of private property” (though he’s not a California resident himself), but acknowledged that “one shouldn’t be able to live and spend like a billionaire and pay no tax.”
Ackman’s idea is to make loans backed by stock holdings taxable, “as if you sold the same dollar amount of stock as the loan amount.” That would eliminate the free ride that investors can enjoy by borrowing against their holdings.
The debate over the California wealth tax may well hinge on delving into plutocrat psychology. Will they just pay the bill, as Huang implies would be his choice? Or relocate from California out of pique?
California is still a magnet for the ambitious entrepreneur, and the drafters of the initiative have tried to preserve its allure. Those who come into the state after Jan. 1 to pursue their ambitious dreams of entrepreneurship would be exempt, as would residents whose billion-dollar fortunes came after that date. There may be better ways for California to capture more revenue from the state’s population of multibillionaires, but a one-time limited tax seems, at this moment, to be as good as any.
Business
Google and Character.AI to settle lawsuits alleging chatbots harmed teens
Google and Character.AI, a California startup, have agreed to settle several lawsuits that allege artificial intelligence-powered chatbots harmed the mental health of teenagers.
Court documents filed this week show that the companies are finalizing settlements in lawsuits in which families accused them of not putting in enough safeguards before publicly releasing AI chatbots. Families in multiple states including Colorado, Florida, Texas and New York sued the companies.
Character.AI declined to comment on the settlements. Google didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
The settlements are the latest development in what has become a big issue for major tech companies as they release AI-powered products.
Suicide prevention and crisis counseling resources
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Last year, California parents sued ChatGPT maker OpenAI after their son Adam Raine died by suicide. ChatGPT, the lawsuit alleged, provided information about suicide methods, including the one the teen used to kill himself. OpenAI has said it takes safety seriously and rolled out new parental controls on ChatGPT.
The lawsuits have spurred more scrutiny from parents, child safety advocates and lawmakers, including in California, who passed new laws last year aimed at making chatbots safer. Teens are increasingly using chatbots both at school and at home, but some have spilled some of their darkest thoughts to virtual characters.
“We cannot allow AI companies to put the lives of other children in danger. We’re pleased to see these families, some of whom have suffered the ultimate loss, receive some small measure of justice,” said Haley Hinkle, policy counsel for Fairplay, a nonprofit dedicated to helping children, in a statement. “But we must not view this settlement as an ending. We have only just begun to see the harm that AI will cause to children if it remains unregulated.”
One of the most high-profile lawsuits involved Florida mom Megan Garcia, who sued Character.AI as well as Google and its parent company, Alphabet, in 2024 after her 14-year-old son, Sewell Setzer III, took his own life.
The teenager started talking to chatbots on Character.AI, where people can create virtual characters based on fictional or real people. He felt like he had fallen in love with a chatbot named after Daenerys Targaryen, a main character from the “Game of Thrones” television series, according to the lawsuit.
Garcia alleged in the lawsuit that various chatbots her son was talking to harmed his mental health, and Character.AI failed to notify her or offer help when he expressed suicidal thoughts.
“The Parties request that this matter be stayed so that the Parties may draft, finalize, and execute formal settlement documents,” according to a notice filed on Wednesday in a federal court in Florida.
Parents also sued Google and its parent company because Character.AI founders Noam Shazeer and Daniel De Freitas have ties to the search giant. After leaving and co-founding Character.AI in Menlo Park, Calif., both rejoined Google’s AI unit.
Google has previously said that Character.AI is a separate company and the search giant never “had a role in designing or managing their AI model or technologies” or used them in its products.
Character.AI has more than 20 million monthly active users. Last year, the company named a new chief executive and said it would ban users under 18 from having “open-ended” conversations with its chatbots and is working on a new experience for young people.
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