Business
California in a jam after borrowing billions to pay unemployment benefits
California’s massive budget deficit, coupled with the state’s relatively high level of joblessness, has become a major barrier to reducing the billions of dollars of debt it has incurred to pay unemployment benefits.
The surge in unemployment brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic pushed the state’s unemployment insurance trust into insolvency. And over the last year California’s joblessness has been on the upswing again, reaching 5.3% in February, the highest among all states. The March job numbers come out Friday.
To keep the safety-net program operating at a time when the taxes paid by employers and earmarked for jobless benefits are insufficient, Sacramento has been borrowing billions of dollars from the federal government. The debt now stands at about $21 billion and growing, an increasing burden for state deficit fighters and for the businesses that pay into the jobless insurance program.
Payroll taxes paid by employers are rising not only to cover payouts to unemployed workers but also a state surcharge and a gradually increasing federal surtax to help pay off the principal on the debt. But the tax increases are not enough to deal with the huge loan the state has incurred, or at least not in any timely manner.
California already has paid more than $650 million in interest on the loan — and about $550 million more is due Sept. 30.
“Businesses are going to continue to see the slow boil eating into their margins,” said Robert Moutrie, senior policy advocate for the California Chamber of Commerce.
Higher taxes will hit small and midsize companies in sectors such as restaurants and tourism especially hard, he said.
“It just adds to the burden and the costs of operating here and makes companies look at operating elsewhere,” Moutrie said.
Although the pandemic is largely to blame for California’s huge unemployment insurance debt — and there’s been a lot of attention on dollars lost to fraud — analysts and workers’ rights groups point to another problem: Even during more-normal economic times, the state often doesn’t collect enough unemployment insurance taxes to cover jobless claims.
“The root problem really is that for decades policymakers haven’t been requiring businesses to pay enough into the [unemployment insurance] fund to support the benefits workers really need,” said Amy Traub, senior researcher and policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project.
“So there’s a structural deficit that underlies this crisis moment with this huge debt to the federal government.”
Data also show that jobless workers in California stay on unemployment significantly longer than the national average, which adds to the total payout amount. And California workers claim unemployment benefits in disproportionately high numbers.
The state accounts for about 20% of the nation’s jobless claims, far in excess of its 11% share of the labor force population. That partly reflects the state’s higher unemployment and accompanying increases in layoffs and jobless claims in the tech industry and other sectors, but also its comparatively easier eligibility rules and low re-employment rate.
Last year California’s jobless workers received on average $385 a week, replacing only about 28% of the average wage. Both figures are lower than the national averages, according to Department of Labor statistics. (The wage replacement rate is about 50% for minimum-wage workers in California.)
From surplus to deficit
But California also stands out as an outlier in the way it has managed, or mismanaged, the program.
When COVID struck in March 2020, U.S. unemployment jumped to 14.8% a month later and brought unprecedented jobless claims, forcing California and many other states to borrow from the federal government to keep paying benefits. Almost all the other states have since repaid those loans, some with pandemic relief money they also got from Washington.
Today only New York and California, plus the Virgin Islands, still owe money for unemployment insurance loans.
Analysts said California could have used some of the $43.5 billion the state received from the American Rescue Plan Act to pay down the debt. Instead, state officials spent the relief money for other purposes, including additional stimulus checks to residents.
“California had options and it chose the spending option instead of the responsible option,” said Matt Weidinger, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who has written widely on the unemployment insurance program. He said higher employer payroll taxes will ultimately spill over to employees in the form of less wages.
“California distributed relief during a time when people and businesses were struggling, everything from covering rent and utility bills to small business grants — helping those hardest hit by the pandemic while stimulating the economy,” said Alex Stack, a spokesman for Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office. “That’s on top of paying down $250 million of unemployment fund debts.”
State legislative analysts were careful not to criticize policy choices made during the extraordinarily uncertain times.
Some suggested, however, that officials may have felt the state had plenty of financial cushion coming out of the pandemic in 2021-22. Then, Sacramento was flush with cash, thanks to huge tax windfalls. And the interest rate on the federal unemployment insurance loan two years ago was at a historical low of 1.6%.
But the interest rate on the loan has since risen to 2.6% — and may yet rise further. What’s more, once huge surpluses are now a projected record budget deficit of more than $70 billion in 2024-25, according to a February update by California’s Legislative Analyst Office.
An economic downturn in the state, marked by a falloff in technology investment and rising overall unemployment, has resulted in unprecedented shortfalls in tax revenues.
Under such budget constraints, California officials had little choice but to pull back on plans to spend $1 billion to reduce the principal on the unemployment insurance loan.
What’s the solution?
California’s Employment Development Department, which oversees the state’s unemployment insurance program, has said that it would rely on increased federal taxes on employers to pay down the debt.
Currently California employers pay a federal unemployment insurance tax of 1.2% on the first $7,000 of wages per employee, but that will rise incrementally every year so long as California is in debt, to more than 3.5% after 10 years. And analysts estimate that it may take at least that long to pay off the debt.
Businesses also pay a state unemployment insurance tax, also on the first $7,000 of wages, based on their layoff history, plus a surcharge when there’s a shortfall in the jobless benefits fund.
Combining both state and federal portions, a new California employer, for example, would be looking at paying about $500 in unemployment insurance taxes per employee this year — almost double than during normal times.
“California’s apparent plan to rely on [federal tax] revenue to pay off the loan avoids addressing solvency in the state unemployment insurance law and places the burden of increased unemployment benefits during the pandemic on employers,” said Doug Holmes, former director of Ohio’s unemployment insurance program and currently president of the consulting firm UWC.
In California, business groups say it’s unfair for employers to shoulder the increasing burden when they weren’t responsible for the pandemic or the temporary lockdowns that were imposed on them, resulting in layoffs and higher unemployment claims. They argue that it will only add to the state’s already higher business costs that have pushed some California companies to relocate to Texas, Nevada and other states.
Traub, of the National Employment Law Project, said employers have to pay more to make the math work and ensure the unemployment trust system is sustainable over the long haul.
Sacramento collects unemployment insurance taxes on the first $7,000 of wages per employee per year. Traub noted that most other states have a significantly higher taxable wage limit — New York at $12,500; New Mexico at $31,700; and Washington state, the highest, at $68,500.
“Raising the taxable wage base has got to be part of the solution,” Traub said.
California legislators are now considering an increase, which many agree is needed. “That’s very reasonable,” said Michael Bernick, an employment attorney at Duane Morris in San Francisco.
Bernick was the EDD director in the early 2000s when, under Gov. Gray Davis, the state raised the maximum weekly unemployment benefits to $450 a week — but without increasing the taxes to cover the larger payments.
Writing in a report with Holmes, Bernick recommended a number of steps the EDD could take to shore up the state’s unemployment benefits program, including tightening eligibility standards and modernizing the agency’s computer and communications systems. But by far the main policy change that’s needed is to help jobless workers move into new jobs more rapidly.
In 2022, California workers stayed on unemployment aid for an average of 18.1 weeks, compared with 14.5 weeks nationally, according to a study by the Department of Labor’s former lead actuary, Robert Pavosevich.
In California that year, 47% of recipients took the full maximum 26 weeks of jobless benefits. Nationally, only 27% exhausted all benefit weeks available.
“Those are striking numbers and highlight just how much the system needs to be reshaped,” Bernick said. “How do we get people back to work quickly? It’s both good for businesses and the workers, but also for the unemployment fund.”
Business
A tale of two Ralphs — Lauren and the supermarket — shows the reality of a K-shaped economy
John and Theresa Anderson meandered through the sprawling Ralph Lauren clothing store on Rodeo Drive, shopping for holiday gifts.
They emerged carrying boxy blue bags. John scored quarter-zip sweaters for himself and his father-in-law, and his wife splurged on a tweed jacket for Christmas Day.
“I’m going for quality over quantity this year,” said John, an apparel company executive and Palos Verdes Estates resident.
They strolled through the world-famous Beverly Hills shopping mecca, where there was little evidence of any big sales.
John Anderson holds his shopping bags from Ralph Lauren and Gucci at Rodeo Drive.
(Juliana Yamada / Los Angeles Times)
One mile away, shoppers at a Ralphs grocery store in West Hollywood were hunting for bargains. The chain’s website has been advertising discounts on a wide variety of products, including wine and wrapping paper.
Massi Gharibian was there looking for cream cheese and ways to save money.
“I’m buying less this year,” she said. “Everything is expensive.”
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The tale of two Ralphs shows how Americans are experiencing radically different realities this holiday season. It represents the country’s K-shaped economy — the growing divide between those who are affluent and those trying to stretch their budgets.
Some Los Angeles residents are tightening their belts and prioritizing necessities such as groceries. Others are frequenting pricey stores such as Ralph Lauren, where doormen hand out hot chocolate and a cashmere-silk necktie sells for $250.
People shop at Ralphs in West Hollywood.
(Juliana Yamada / Los Angeles Times)
In the K-shaped economy, high-income households sit on the upward arm of the “K,” benefiting from rising pay as well as the value of their stock and property holdings. At the same time, lower-income families occupy the downward stroke, squeezed by inflation and lackluster income gains.
The model captures the country’s contradictions. Growth looks healthy on paper, yet hiring has slowed and unemployment is edging higher. Investment is booming in artificial intelligence data centers, while factories cut jobs and home sales stall.
The divide is most visible in affordability. Inflation remains a far heavier burden for households lower on the income distribution, a frustration that has spilled into politics. Voters are angry about expensive rents, groceries and imported goods.
“People in lower incomes are becoming more and more conservative in their spending patterns, and people in the upper incomes are actually driving spending and spending more,” said Kevin Klowden, an executive director at the Milken Institute, an economic think tank.
“Inflationary pressures have been much higher on lower- and middle-income people, and that has been adding up,” he said.
According to a Bank of America report released this month, higher-income employees saw their after-tax wages grow 4% from last year, while lower-income groups saw a jump of just 1.4%. Higher-income households also increased their spending year over year by 2.6%, while lower-income groups increased spending by 0.6%.
The executives at the companies behind the two Ralphs say they are seeing the trend nationwide.
Ralph Lauren reported better-than-expected quarterly sales last month and raised its forecasts, while Kroger, the grocery giant that owns Ralphs and Food 4 Less, said it sometimes struggles to attract cash-strapped customers.
“We’re seeing a split across income groups,” interim Kroger Chief Executive Ron Sargent said on a company earnings call early this month. “Middle-income customers are feeling increased pressure. They’re making smaller, more frequent trips to manage budgets, and they’re cutting back on discretionary purchases.”
People leave Ralphs with their groceries in West Hollywood.
(Juliana Yamada / Los Angeles Times)
Kroger lowered the top end of its full-year sales forecast after reporting mixed third-quarter earnings this month.
On a Ralph Lauren earnings call last month, CEO Patrice Louvet said its brand has benefited from targeting wealthy customers and avoiding discounts.
“Demand remains healthy, and our core consumer is resilient,” Louvet said, “especially as we continue … to shift our recruiting towards more full-price, less price-sensitive, higher-basket-size new customers.”
Investors have noticed the split as well.
The stock charts of the companies behind the two Ralphs also resemble a K. Shares of Ralph Lauren have jumped 37% in the last six months, while Kroger shares have fallen 13%.
To attract increasingly discerning consumers, Kroger has offered a precooked holiday meal for eight of turkey or ham, stuffing, green bean casserole, sweet potatoes, mashed potatoes, cranberry and gravy for about $11 a person.
“Stretch your holiday dollars!” said the company’s weekly newspaper advertisement.
Signs advertising low prices are posted at Ralphs.
(Juliana Yamada / Los Angeles Times)
In the Ralph Lauren on Rodeo Drive, sunglasses and polo shirts were displayed without discounts. Twinkling lights adorned trees in the store’s entryway and employees offered shoppers free cookies for the holidays.
Ralph Lauren and other luxury stores are taking the opposite approach to retailers selling basics to the middle class.
They are boosting profits from sales of full-priced items. Stores that cater to high-end customers don’t offer promotions as frequently, Klowden of the Milken Institute said.
“When the luxury stores are having sales, that’s usually a larger structural symptom of how they’re doing,” he said. “They don’t need to be having sales right now.”
Jerry Nickelsburg, faculty director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, said upper-income earners are less affected by inflation that has driven up the price of everyday goods, and are less likely to hunt for bargains.
“The low end of the income distribution is being squeezed by inflation and is consuming less,” he said. “The upper end of the income distribution has increasing wealth and increasing income, and so they are less affected, if affected at all.”
The Andersons on Rodeo Drive also picked up presents at Gucci and Dior.
“We’re spending around the same as last year,” John Anderson said.
At Ralphs, Beverly Grove resident Mel, who didn’t want to share her last name, said the grocery store needs to go further for its consumers.
“I am 100% trying to spend less this year,” she said.
Business
Instacart ends AI pricing test that charged shoppers different prices for the same items
Instacart will stop using artificial intelligence to experiment with product pricing after a report showed that customers on the platform were paying different prices for the same items.
The report, published this month by Consumer Reports and Groundwork Collaborative, found that Instacart sometimes offered as many as five different prices for the same item at the same store and on the same day.
In a blog post Monday, Instacart said it was ending the practice effective immediately.
“We understand that the tests we ran with a small number of retail partners that resulted in different prices for the same item at the same store missed the mark for some customers,” the company said. “At a time when families are working exceptionally hard to stretch every grocery dollar, those tests raised concerns.”
Shoppers purchasing the same items from the same store on the same day will now see identical prices, the blog post said.
Instacart’s retail partners will still set product prices and may charge different prices across stores.
The report, which followed more than 400 shoppers in four cities, found that the average difference between the highest and lowest prices for the same item was 13%. Some participants in the study saw prices that were 23% higher than those offered to other shoppers.
At a Safeway supermarket in Washington, D.C., a dozen Lucerne eggs sold for $3.99, $4.28, $4.59, $4.69 and $4.79 on Instacart, depending on the shopper, the study showed.
At a Safeway in Seattle, a box of 10 Clif Chocolate Chip Energy bars sold for $19.43, $19.99 and $21.99 on Instacart.
The study found that an individual shopper on Instacart could theoretically spend up to $1,200 more on groceries in one year if they had to deal with the price differences observed in the pricing experiments.
The price experimentation was part of a program that Instacart advertised to retailers as a way to maximize revenue.
Instacart probably began adjusting prices in 2022, when the platform acquired the artificial intelligence company Eversight, whose software powers the experiments.
Instacart claimed that the Eversight experimentation would be negligible to consumers but could increase store revenue by up to 3%.
“Advances in AI enable experiments to be automatically designed, deployed, and evaluated, making it possible to rapidly test and analyze millions of price permutations across your physical and digital store network,” Instacart marketing materials said online.
The company said the price chranges were not dynamic pricing, the practice used by airlines and ride-hailing services to charge more when demand surges.
The price changes also were not based on shoppers’ personal information such as income, the company said.
“American grocery shoppers aren’t guinea pigs, and they should be able to expect a fair price when they’re shopping,” Lindsey Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, said in an interview this month.
Shares of Instacart fell 2% on Monday, closing at $45.02.
Business
Apple, Google and others tell some foreign employees to avoid traveling out of the country
Big Tech companies, including Apple, Google, Microsoft, and ServiceNow, have warned employees on visas to avoid leaving the country amid uncertainty about changing immigration policy and procedures.
Following an attack on National Guard members in Washington, the Trump administration expanded travel bans earlier this month, and beefed up vetting and data collection for visa applicants. The new policy now includes screening the social media history of some visa applicants and their dependents.
Soon after the announcement, U.S. consulates began rescheduling appointments for future dates, some as late as summer 2026, leaving employees who required appointments unable to return.
“Please be aware that some U.S. Embassies and Consulates are experiencing significant visa stamping appointment delays, currently reported as up to 12 months,” noted an email sent by Berry Appleman & Leiden LLC, the immigration firm that represents Google. The advisory also recommended “avoiding international travel at this time.”
Business Insider earlier reported on the travel advisories.
Microsoft’s memo noted that much of the rescheduling is occurring in India, in cities such as Chennai and Hyderabad, and that new stamping dates are as far out as June 2026.
The company advised employees with valid work authorization who were traveling outside the U.S. for stamping to return before their current visa expires. Those still in the U.S. scheduling upcoming travel for visa stamping should “strongly consider” changing their travel plans.
Apple’s immigration team also recommended that employees without a valid H1-B visa stamp avoid international travel for now.
ServiceNow, a business software company, similarly issued an advisory recommending that those with valid visa stamps return to the U.S.
Microsoft declined to comment on its memo. Apple, Google and ServiceNow did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Companies warned that delays due to enhanced screening is for H-1B, H-4, F, J and M visas.
H-1B is a high-skilled immigration visa program that allows employers to sponsor work visas for individuals with specialized skills. The program, capped at 85,000 new visas per year, is a channel for American tech giants to source skilled workers, such as software engineers.
Big Tech companies such as Amazon, Google, and Meta have consistently topped the charts in terms of the number of H-1B approvals, with Indian nationals as the largest beneficiaries of the program, accounting for 71% of approved H-1 B petitions.
H-1B visas are awarded through a lottery system, which its critics say has been exploited by companies to replace American workers with cheap foreign labor.
In September, the Trump administration announced a $100,000 fee for new H-1B employee hires. But after severe pushback, it clarified that it applied only to employers seeking to use the H-1B visa to hire foreign nationals not already in the U.S.
The H-1B program is an issue that has not only animated the right but also splintered it. Those on the tech-right, such as Elon Musk and David Sacks, are strongly in favor of strengthening skilled immigration, while the core MAGA base is vehemently opposed to it.
Proponents of the program often highlight that skilled worker immigration made the U.S a technological leader, and nearly half of the fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children, creating jobs for native-born Americans.
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