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As Delta Reports Profits, Airlines Are Optimistic About 2025

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As Delta Reports Profits, Airlines Are Optimistic About 2025

This year just got started, but it is already shaping up nicely for U.S. airlines.

After several setbacks, the industry ended 2024 in a fairly strong position because of healthy demand for tickets and the ability of several airlines to control costs and raise fares, experts said. Barring any big problems, airlines — especially the largest ones — should enjoy a great year, analysts said.

“I think it’s going to be pretty blue skies,” said Tom Fitzgerald, an airline industry analyst for the investment bank TD Cowen.

In recent weeks, many major airlines upgraded forecasts for the all-important last three months of the year. And on Friday, Delta Air Lines said it collected more than $15.5 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024, a record.

“As we move into 2025, we expect strong demand for travel to continue,” Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said in a statement. That put the airline on track to “deliver the best financial year in Delta’s 100-year history,” he said.

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The airline also beat analysts’ profit estimates and said it expected earnings per share, a measure of profitability, to rise more than 10 percent this year.

Delta’s upbeat report offers a preview of what are expected to be similarly rosy updates from other carriers that will report earnings in the next few weeks. That should come as welcome news to an industry that has been stifled by various challenges even as demand for travel has rocketed back after the pandemic.

“For the last five years, it’s felt like every bird in the sky was a black swan,” said Ravi Shanker, an analyst focused on airlines at Morgan Stanley. “But it appears that this industry does have its ducks in a row.”

That is, of course, if everything goes according to plan, which it rarely does. Geopolitics, terrorist attacks, air safety problems and, perhaps most important, an economic downturn could tank demand for travel. Rising costs, particularly for jet fuel, could erode profits. Or the industry could face problems like a supply chain disruption that limits availability of new planes or makes it harder to repair older ones.

Early last year, a panel blew off a Boeing 737 Max during an Alaska Airlines flight, resurfacing concerns about the safety of the manufacturer’s planes, which are used on most flights operated by U.S. airlines, according to Cirium, an aviation data firm.

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The incident forced Boeing to slow production and delay deliveries of jets. That disrupted the plans of some airlines that had hoped to carry more passengers. And there was little airlines could do to adjust because the world’s largest jet manufacturer, Airbus, didn’t have the capacity to pick up the slack — both it and Boeing have long order backlogs. In addition, some Airbus planes were afflicted by an engine problem that has forced carriers to pull the jets out of service for inspections.

There was other tumult, too. Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy. A brief technology outage wreaked havoc on many airlines, disrupting travel and resulting in thousands of canceled flights in the heart of the busy summer season. And during the summer, smaller airlines flooded popular domestic routes with seats, squeezing profits during what is normally the most lucrative time of year.

But the industry’s financial position started improving when airlines reduced the number of flights and seats. While that was bad for travelers, it lifted fares and profits for airlines.

“You’re in a demand-over-supply imbalance, which gives the industry pricing power,” said Andrew Didora, an analyst at the Bank of America.

At the same time, airlines have been trying to improve their businesses. American Airlines overhauled a sales strategy that had frustrated corporate customers, helping it win back some travelers. Southwest Airlines made changes aimed at lowering costs and increasing profits after a push by the hedge fund Elliott Management. And JetBlue Airways unveiled a strategy with similar aims, after a less contentious battle with the investor Carl C. Icahn.

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Those improvements and industry trends, along with the stabilization of fuel, labor and other costs, have created the conditions for what could be a banner 2025. “All of this is the best setup we’ve had in decades,” Mr. Shanker said.

That won’t materialize right away, though. Travel demand tends to be subdued in the winter. But business trips pick up somewhat, driven by events like this week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

The positive outlook for 2025 is probably strongest for the largest U.S. airlines — Delta, United and American. All three are well positioned to take advantage of buoyant trends, including steadily rebounding business travel and customers who are eager to spend more on better seats and international flights.

But some smaller airlines may do well, too. JetBlue, Alaska Airlines and others have been adding more premium seats, which should help lift profits.

While he is optimistic overall, Mr. Shanker acknowledged that the industry was vulnerable to a host of potential problems.

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“I mean, this time last year you were talking about doors falling off planes,” he said. “So who knows what might happen.”

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Commentary: Ted Cruz and his GOP colleagues are pushing yet another tax break for the 1%

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Commentary: Ted Cruz and his GOP colleagues are pushing yet another tax break for the 1%

America’s beleaguered 1%, backed by their supporters in Congress, are pleading for your sympathy.

They say they’re treated unfairly by the federal tax code, you see, because inflation has sapped the value of their most cherished tax break, the preferential tax rate on capital gains. And they want it fixed.

Inflation, says Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), the leading proponent of this idea, has been “turning gains into an unfair tax burden.” Last year, he proposed to rectify this injustice via the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act of 2025.

That was a rerun of similar bills he introduced in 2018 and 2021. None of them passed, so this time around, he’s proposing to circumvent Congress entirely by persuading President Trump to enact the break by presidential fiat.

The argument proponents make sounds logical until you think about it.

— Steve Wamhoff, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (2019)

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The reaction by legal and economic experts outside the GOP echo chamber has been overwhelmingly negative. Whether Trump could enact the tax break via executive order is dubious , they say, and in any event the break is unwarranted and economically unwise.

“The argument proponents make,” wrote Steve Wamhoff of the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy in 2019, “sounds logical until you think about it.” The legal and economic considerations haven’t changed since then.

As Wamhoff observed, there’s a certain amount of superficial logic underlying the argument that inflation in effect raises the tax rate charged on capital gains — the profits investors pocket from increases in the value of their stocks and bonds over time.

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That’s because of how the gain is calculated. The math starts with the “basis,” the price originally paid for the asset, and proceeds to the final sale price. The difference is subject to the capital gains tax.

If the asset has been held for more than a year, the gain is taxed at a rate that tops out at 20%. This year, the rate is zero for taxpayers with income up to $48,350 ($96,700 for couples) and 15% for those with income up to $533,400 ($600,050 for couples). The top rate of 20% kicks in for those with incomes higher than that.

Gains on assets held for less than a year are taxed at the higher rates due on ordinary income, which this year top out at 37% on incomes over $640,600 ($768,700 for couples).

The issue raised by the proponents of change is that the basis is calculated on a pre-inflation value, but the gain on post-inflation values. Therefore, they assert, at least some of the gains reported by investors are due not to real advances in an asset’s value, but to inflation. They say no one should be taxed on inflation.

To illustrate, if you bought a share of stock for $5 a decade ago and then sold it for $9, your capital gain of $4 is subject to the tax. But if the value’s increase matched the inflation rate over that period, Wamhoff noted, “you have not genuinely profited.” Indeed, if your gain was less than the inflation rate, you might even be charged tax on an inflation-adjusted loss.

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The remedy that Cruz proposes is to adjust the original basis for inflation. Say that due to inflation alone, that share of stock might have gained $3 in value. If one raises the basis by $3, the real taxable gain would be $1, not $4, quite a difference for the taxpayer.

There are a few problems with this narrative. Among the chief rationales for the lower tax rate on capital gains is to counter the effect of inflation. Adding the inflation indexing of the basis would mean accommodating inflation twice.

Another issue would be finding the right inflation index. Proponents of indexing typically cite the consumer price index, but that’s only one of numerous inflation measures the government calculates. Because the index tracks changes in the price of purchased goods, it’s not necessarily the right measure to adjust the values of capital assets such as stocks and bonds.

Then there’s the question of why only capital gains should be singled out for a special inflation adjustment. “Inflation distorts all forms of capital income and expense, not just capital gains,” observed Elena Patel of the Brookings Institution earlier this month. “Interest, dividends, rents: all of them partly reflect inflation.”

The impact of this change on the federal budget can’t be overlooked. The cost over 10 years, according to the Yale Budget Lab, would be $169 billion if the indexing rule were imposed only on newly purchased capital assets, but nearly $1 trillion if it were applied retrospectively to stocks and bonds already held by investors.

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Also at issue is whether America’s rich really need another tax break. The tax cuts delivered by Republicans and Trump in 2017, during his first term, are estimated to be worth $1.5 trillion or more over 10 years. They were made permanent by the GOP budget bill enacted last year; the fiscal hawks at the Committee for a Responsible Budget estimate the cost of those provisions at more than $2.4 trillion over the next decade.

All that comes on top of a general reduction in top marginal federal income tax rates that have reduced them to the lowest level in a half-century.

As for the assertion by Cruz that inflation “will boost savings, spur investment, and create jobs nationwide,” there’s little evidence for that. Economists generally have calculated that whatever economic growth could be ascribed to the change would be washed out by the revenue loss from inflation-indexing only new purchases, and utterly swamped by the cost of indexing all holdings, past and future.

Nevertheless, Republicans have been relentless in trying to secure this tax break for their rich patrons. Legislation to enact the indexation of capital gains taxes was introduced in 1978, 1983, 1994, 1997 and 1998. Cruz introduced his own bills in 2018, 2021 and 2025.

All those efforts flopped in Congress. Accordingly, the advocates of inflation-indexing of capital gains have dusted off a workaround that first surfaced in 1992, during the George H. W. Bush administration. This is for the Treasury to rule on its own authority that “basis” means “inflation-adjusted cost.”

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The Department of Justice and the Treasury subjected the question of whether the change could be made without congressional action to their gimlet-eyed scrutiny, and turned thumbs-down. “Not only did I not think we could, I did not think that a reasonable argument could be made to support that position,” then-Atty. Gen. William Barr said later. The Bush administration dropped the idea.

But Cruz, along with Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) have urged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to revive it. Eight Republican lawmakers joined the parade, asserting in a March 5 letter that such a move would be “a straightforward administrative action grounded in fairness and sound tax policy.” (The Treasury Department didn’t respond to my request for comment.)

It should go without saying that with Democrats campaigning on an “affordability” platform, this idea sounds like political poison. It’s impossible to see it as anything other than a handout to the rich. How do we know this? Because it’s only the rich who have any significant exposure to the capital gains tax.

According to IRS data, about 75% of the income of the median American household, which earned about $84,000 in 2024, came from wages and only about 1.1% from capital gains. In the wealthiest households — those with $10 million or more in annual income— only about 12% came from wages but nearly half came from capital gains.

That may understate the value of capital gains for the wealthy. As Ed Kleinbard, the late taxation guru at USC, was fond of pointing out, the capital gains tax is our only truly voluntary tax. That’s because no one has to pay it until they sell the asset. If they hold it until their death, their heirs pay nothing, thanks to the “step-up” in basis for inherited wealth, which revalues the asset to its price as of the death of the owner, extinguishing the tax forever on what could be decades of gains.

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After 48 years of unsuccessful politicking, one might be tempted to call the idea of indexing capital gains a certified washout. But when it comes to the GOP’s cherished hobby horses, it’s always too early to tell.

Bruce Bartlett, who served as an adviser to the Reagan and H. W. Bush administrations but has since become a most percipient critic of modern GOP economic nostrums, says the GOP’s peculiar genius is to keep even its unpopular policies simmering away in the expectation that, at some point in the future, a window will open up to get them enacted. That’s how they got abortion rights rescinded by the Supreme Court in 2022 — after 49 years of fighting against Roe vs. Wade.

When a GOP proposal fails to pass, Bartlett told me, “They put it on the shelf when the time isn’t right and when the situation changes they pull it off the shelf, dust it off, and they are ready to go again. … The left doesn’t do this. It waits until the political opportunity is ripe to even begin preparing. By the time they are ready, the opportunity has passed.”

The Republican fixation on relieving their rich patrons of the burden of capital gains taxes isn’t surprising. As I’ve reported in the past, the capital gains preference rate is the most valuable tax break the wealthy receive.

That’s because, in addition to being voluntary, as Kleinbard noted, it’s uncapped — unlike, say the deduction of mortgage interest.

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This proposal doesn’t make sense even on its own terms. Isn’t it time for the proponents to drop the subject already?

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Lone survivor of fiery Cybertruck crash was trapped by electronic doors, lawsuit says

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Lone survivor of fiery Cybertruck crash was trapped by electronic doors, lawsuit says

The only survivor of a Cybertruck crash in Piedmont is suing Tesla, saying the vehicle’s electronic doors failed to open while he was trapped inside, surrounded by flames.

On Nov. 27, 2024, Jordan Miller was riding in the passenger seat when the driver, who was speeding, lost control and crashed into a tree at Hampton Road and King Avenue. The vehicle burst into flames, killing three college students, including the driver, Soren Dixon.

In a complaint filed in Alameda County Superior Court in 2025, Miller sued Dixon’s estate and the estate of Dixon’s grandfather, Charles Patterson, who was the registered vehicle owner. Toxicology reports showed that Dixon had a blood alcohol level of 0.195%, more than two times the legal limit.

On Tuesday, Miller amended the complaint to add Tesla as a defendant, alleging product liability claims. Lawyers for Miller said his injuries would have been much less severe if he was able to escape the vehicle earlier.

After the crash, a friend who was driving behind the Cybertruck desperately tried to free Miller from the burning vehicle, but could not open the doors because there were no external handles. The electronic controls to open the doors did not work, the complaint said.

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The friend used a tree branch to strike the vehicle’s front window several times until it broke and he was able to remove Miller. Miller suffered severe burns to his legs, airways and lungs, and broke four vertebrae. He was in an induced coma for five days following the collision.

The lawsuit alleges that Tesla was aware its Cybertruck doors could fail in emergency situations.

“As the manufacturer and designer of the Cybertruck, Tesla knew of the serious risk of trapping Tesla owners, drivers, and passengers in their electronically powered vehicles for over a decade when involved in a collision,” the amended complaint said. “Despite having been on notice of the many serious injuries and/or fatalities caused by the defective design of their vehicles, including the Cybertruck, Tesla continued to manufacture and sell such dangerous vehicles.”

The complaint said Tesla has received accounts dating back to 2016 of victims becoming trapped in burning Tesla vehicles due to the failure of the electronic doors. Rescuers often struggle to open Tesla doors following crashes because there are no external handles.

Parents of the other two passengers killed in the crash sued Tesla last October. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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California Highway Patrol investigators said that speeding and driver impairment led to the deadly crash. The three students killed each had cocaine in their systems, according to the Alameda County coroner.

The Cybertruck, Elon Musk’s futuristic electric pickup, was unveiled in 2019. Though it attracts looks with its unique design, it’s been the subject of several significant recalls in recent years. In 2024, nearly 4,000 vehicles were recalled for a faulty accelerator pedal that could become dislodged and stuck. Last year, U.S. regulators recalled more than 46,000 Cybertrucks, warning that the truck’s exterior panels could detach while driving.

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Disney’s new CEO says his focus is on storytelling and creativity

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Disney’s new CEO says his focus is on storytelling and creativity

Disney has a new captain, and his eyes are on the stars.

Taking over the reins from Bob Iger on Wednesday, new chief executive Josh D’Amaro signaled a bold shift for the entertainment giant: a future where emotional storytelling remains the “North Star,” but cutting-edge technology provides the fuel.

From ESPN to the Magic Kingdom, D’Amaro said in his first letter to employees as the top boss that his mission is to turn a century of nostalgia into a more personal, high-tech reality for fans worldwide.

“Used thoughtfully, it can empower our storytellers, strengthen our capabilities, and help us create more immersive, interactive and personal ways for people to experience Disney,” he wrote in the Wednesday morning note.

D’Amaro also said he wants the sprawling company, which includes film and TV studios, a tourism division, streaming services and live sports programming, to operate as “one Disney,” saying the global businesses all play a role in deepening consumers’ relationship with the Mouse House.

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That connection people have with Disney’s brand is key to the company’s future. Consumers have more film, TV and experiences to choose from than ever, meaning Disney needs to distinguish itself among competitors.

To do that, D’Amaro plans to focus on the emotions consumers feel when they encounter Disney. As an example, he reminisced about his own first visit to Disneyland more than 40 years ago.

He recalled the joy on his father’s face as the two rode Peter Pan’s Flight together. And when they soared over the miniature version of London on the ride, he remembered his father leaning in and saying, “See, I told you. It feels like we’re flying!”

“That feeling of flying I had on Peter Pan all those years ago is still real to me,” he wrote in the Wednesday morning note. “And today, I am honored to move forward with all of you — with ambition, optimism, and absolute confidence in what we can build together.”

That new era also included a goodbye to Bob Iger, who handed over the reins Wednesday and now moves into a senior advisory role for the rest of the year before his planned retirement.

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The company paid tribute to Iger in a video during Disney’s annual shareholders meeting Wednesday morning.

With clips from his earliest public appearances as Disney’s CEO, a highlight reel of the acquisitions the company made under his tenure and even a nod to his previous career behind the anchor desk, the video highlighted Iger’s legacy at the company and the role he played in bulking up Disney’s franchises, global theme parks, sports and streaming platforms.

When asked in the video about where he’ll go from here, Iger laughed and replied, “To Disneyland.”

In a pre-recorded speech, Iger said his time at Disney has spanned much of his life and that he never expected to become CEO of the company — much less twice.

“Over the years, we experienced extraordinary change and faced real challenges that were particularly profound in the last three years,” Iger said. “It was daunting at times, but through it all, what sustained me was the passion I saw every day from great storytellers, innovators, leaders and people around the world.”

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In his parting remarks during that speech, he expressed confidence in the new leadership team of D’Amaro and Dana Walden, who is now president and chief creative officer of the company.

“I will be cheering on Josh, Dana and all of you as I sail off into the sunset,” he said. “So thank you for the trust you placed in me, for the memories we created together, and for allowing me the honor of serving. It has meant more to me than I can say.”

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