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Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

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Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

Minnesota has enacted the most far-reaching crackdown on massively popular services like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Steve Karnowski/Associated Press


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Steve Karnowski/Associated Press

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has signed the nation’s first law banning prediction market sites from operating in the state, and in response, the Trump administration has sued, teeing up a legal battle over the most far-reaching crackdown on popular services like Kalshi and Polymarket.

It comes as states confront a growing standoff with the Trump administration over how to regulate the industry, which allows people to bet on virtually anything.

The new state law makes it a crime to host or advertise a prediction market, which it defines as a system that lets consumers place a wager on a future outcome, like sports, elections, live entertainment, someone’s word choice and world affairs.

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The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban.

It would force prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to leave the state, or face possible felony charges. The law takes effect in August.

“We as a state should decide how best and what regulations we think should attach to gambling, to protect public safety, to protect our kids,” said Minnesota Rep. Emma Greenman, the Democrat who introduced the measure.

The law has a carve-out for event contracts that serve as an insurance policy in the event of “harm, or loss sustained” and for the purchase of securities and other commodities.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s lawsuit seeks to block the law before it starts, arguing the prediction market industry should be exclusively regulated by federal officials.

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“This Minnesota law turns lawful operators and participants in prediction markets into felons overnight,” said CFTC Chairman Michael Selig. “Minnesota farmers have relied on critical hedging products on weather and crop-related events for decades to mitigate their risks. Governor Walz chose to put special interests first and American farmers and innovators last.”

Besides Minnesota, bills cracking down on the prediction market industry have been introduced in seven other states, according to the National Conference of State Legislators. Two of those states, Hawaii and North Carolina, have pending bills seeking to ban the industry statewide.

Experts say the cloud of legal uncertainty hanging over prediction markets apps have not slowed their rapid growth.

“The states are using any tactic they can to go after the prediction market companies,” said Melinda Roth, a professor at Washington and Lee University’s School of Law, who studies the industry. “But they’ve embarked on a too big to fail strategy and have become quite mainstream,” she said. “It will be hard to put that genie back in the bottle.”

A legal fight over the Minnesota ban is expected. Questions over whether states or the federal government should oversee the prediction market industry have already triggered more than 20 lawsuits. One of those cases, in Nevada, led to Kalshi pausing its sports betting in the state after a judge found it “indistinguishable” from state-regulated sports gambling.

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed federal lawsuits against five states, including Arizona, Wisconsin and New York, attempting to override state regulators’ attempts to rein in the betting sites.

The CFTC has argued it has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, even though former CFTC members and legal experts say bets on football games, words President Trump might say during a press conference and whether Ricky Martin will make an appearance at the Super Bowl are matters far outside its traditional scope.

In a statement to NPR, Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said banning prediction markets is a “blatant violation” of the law.

“Minnesota banning prediction markets is like trying to ban the New York Stock Exchange,” said Diana, adding that “this actively harms users because it reduces competition and drives activity offshore.”

A Polymarket spokesman told NPR that Minnesota’s ban runs counter to the federal government’s “established framework” for regulating prediction markets.

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Tribal-owned casinos operate in Minnesota, but online gambling and sports betting are not legal in the state.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have given access to sports betting to people in states where the activity is prohibited, since the Trump administration regulates the sites as a type of “event contract,” rather than gambling, which typically is overseen by state gaming authorities.

Nonetheless, sports gambling powers the sites. On Kalshi, for instance, more than 85% of trading activity is related to a sporting event, some of those trades being “parlays,” high-risk wagers that multiple things, points scored, fouls, passes, will all happen.

Bettors on the sites are making billions of dollars in trades every week, even as questions around insider trading and how the markets can create perverse incentives for people to manipulate real world outcomes continue to vex the companies.

Minnesota Public Radio News reporters Dana Ferguson and Peter Cox contributed reporting to this story.

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Video: Deal Ends Long Island Rail Road Strike

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Video: Deal Ends Long Island Rail Road Strike

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Deal Ends Long Island Rail Road Strike

The Long Island Rail Road strike ended after transit officials and union representatives reached a deal. Tuesday’s commute was expected to be disrupted even as regular train service resumed.

No contract, no trains. No contract, no trains. No contract, no trains. It has been absolutely awful. It’s been three and a half hours to get to work because I work in the South Bronx. It was actually smoother than I had anticipated. It was just longer. I got on the bus in five seconds. We took off about two minutes later, so that was great. But the problem was the traffic was crazy. So as a union worker, I stand for the union. I think that for three years they knew this was up and coming. I just felt like there should have been better preparation. I’m a teacher and I’m a union member. I also pay monthly fares and they’re expensive so I can see both sides. I don’t really want to play the blame game on it.

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The Long Island Rail Road strike ended after transit officials and union representatives reached a deal. Tuesday’s commute was expected to be disrupted even as regular train service resumed.

By McKinnon de Kuyper, Michael Anthony Adams and Jiwoong Hong

May 19, 2026

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Long Island Rail Road strike ends as MTA, unions reach tentative deal

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Long Island Rail Road strike ends as MTA, unions reach tentative deal

The Long Island Rail Road strike is over after the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and unions reached a tentative agreement Monday to end the three-day work stoppage.  

“Tonight, the MTA reached a fair deal with the five LIRR unions that delivers raises for workers while protecting riders and taxpayers. I’m pleased to announce that phased LIRR service will resume beginning tomorrow at noon,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said in a post on X.   

The deal between five LIRR labor unions and the MTA was announced just before 9 p.m. after negotiations all day and over the weekend, bringing service back to the largest commuter rail in the U.S. 

The LIRR, which serves roughly 300,000 commuters daily, has been paralyzed since midnight Saturday, when the 3,500 unionized workers walked off the job.

LIRR service to resume Tuesday

MTA CEO Janno Lieber said the strike would officially end at midnight Tuesday, but train service will not be available for the morning commute. 

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“The strike is going to be over and there are people who are reporting to work in this hour and in the hours to come to resume service,” Lieber said at a news conference outside MTA headquarters in Lower Manhattan. 

LIRR President Robert Free said service will resume Tuesday at noon, with hourly service on the Port Washington, Huntington, Ronkonkoma and Babylon branches, followed by full peak service for the afternoon and evening rush hour. 

“Once the rush hour begins, about 4 p.m., we’ll have service on all branches … normal weekday schedule,” said Free, who noted shuttle buses will be available in the morning. 

The MTA said it needs time to conduct mandatory inspections and call employees back to work before regular service restarts. 

More details are available on the MTA’s website here. 

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No tax or fair hikes, Hochul says

Full details of the agreement were not immediately provided, but Hochul said at the MTA news conference that it does not raise taxes or fares.

“At a time when everything is going up, we all know the story, I was not going to allow taxes or fares to go up,” the governor said. 

The National Mediation Board summoned union leaders and MTA management to a meeting to resume bargaining Sunday evening and both sides picked up the talks Monday.    

“Due to the nature of the negotiations, we cannot discuss the specifics,” Kevin Sexton, national vice president of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, said at a separate news conference. “What we can say is that we are looking forward to our members getting back to work and doing what they do best, which is serving the region.” 

“The whole point was that we needed to find ways that we could give people fair raises, but also structure it in a way that didn’t blow the MTA budget. We got it done,” Lieber said. 

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The deal must still be ratified by the five labor unions. The conductors and maintenance workers had been working without a contract for two and a half years.    

This was the first LIRR strike since June 1994, when conductors and maintenance workers walked off after two and a half years without a contract. Then-Gov. Mario Cuomo and his administration had to step in and impose a contract settlement.       

Commuters take shuttle buses

The MTA’s strike contingency plan, with replacement shuttle buses, will remain in use Tuesday morning to bring commuters to the New York City subway. Buses will run from 4:30 a.m. – 9 a.m. 

More than 2,100 commuters who couldn’t drive Monday morning went to one of the six Long Island pickup locations and boarded buses to stations in Queens, according to the MTA, which had capacity for 13,000. 

In the afternoon, MTA workers guided commuters off the subway and toward their buses to get home. 

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LIRR strike shuttle bus service map

Travel times were up, and so were some riders’ frustrations at the Howard Beach-JFK station. 

“Hell, it cost me $100 in the Uber to get to Queens and now I got to ride a two-hour bus,” said Kevin Pierre-Louis, of Bayshore. “I know everybody wants money and they want to get the pay they deserve, but it’s inconveniencing a lot of people.” 

Pierre-Louis said he’ll work from home Tuesday to avoid the hassle, but others won’t have that option. 

“Two hours to go to Manhattan,” said Marcia Russell, of Hempstead, who works at Harlem Hospital. “I have to go to work.” 

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“I left at 7:30 and I punched in at 11:23,” said Josephine Pantell, of Seaford. “It’s just so frustrating.” 

Jamaica-179th Street was also a shuttle location. 

Staffy Chavis, of St. Albans, waited at Jamaica-179th Street to board a shuttle bus to get to Fire Island for her 8 p.m. work shift. 

“It’s chaotic, but this looks organized,” Chavis said. “Just a really big inconvenience.” 

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The Supreme Court avoids taking up a fight over Voting Rights Act enforcement for now

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The Supreme Court avoids taking up a fight over Voting Rights Act enforcement for now

A demonstrator holds a sign saying “PROTECT MINORITY VOTING RIGHTS” at a March 2025 rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington, D.C.

Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Legal Defense Fund


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Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Legal Defense Fund

Weeks after further weakening the Voting Rights Act, the U.S. Supreme Court sidestepped weighing in on a legal question that could severely limit enforcement of the law’s remaining protections for minority voters.

In a brief, unsigned order on Monday, the high court announced it is sending cases about Mississippi and North Dakota state legislative maps back to lower courts to be reconsidered in light of its recent ruling in Louisiana v. Callais.

That landmark decision in April weakened the Voting Rights Act’s protections against racial discrimination in redistricting and as a result reignited the congressional gerrymandering battle sparked by President Trump ahead of the 2026 midterm election to help Republicans keep control of the House of Representatives.

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Monday’s move by the court effectively allows the justices to take an off-ramp from hearing what could have been the next major Supreme Court fight over the landmark 1965 law.

What the court avoided in Monday’s order: a “private right of action”

What’s known as Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act has been mainly enforced as a result of lawsuits by voters and advocacy groups, who have brought hundreds of challenges to maps of voting districts and other election-related procedures.

But in the Mississippi and North Dakota redistricting cases, Republican officials have raised a novel argument — that private individuals and groups do not have a right to sue under Section 2, and only the U.S. attorney general does.

Such an interpretation would lead to far fewer Section 2 lawsuits, legal experts say.

The Supreme Court’s decision not to take up the question of what the legal world refers to as a “private right of action” under Section 2 drew pushback from liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.

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In dissents from Monday’s order, Jackson pointed out the high court’s ruling in the Callais case did not address the legal question of Section 2’s enforceability by private individuals and groups.

“Thus I see no basis for vacating the lower court’s judgment,” Jackson said, criticizing the move to throw out earlier lower court rulings in both the Mississippi and North Dakota cases.

Enforcement of another Voting Rights Act section is also at risk

Still, while those cases now make their way back down the federal court system, the future enforcement of another section of the Voting Rights Act is also under question.

Section 208 generally allows voters who need help to vote because of a disability or inability to read or write to get assistance from a person of their choice. But in a case challenging an Arkansas law, a panel of the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has found that private groups and individuals cannot sue to enforce Section 208.

That federal appeals court also ruled against a private right of action under Section 2 in the North Dakota legislative redistricting case.

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In an opinion dissenting from the 8th Circuit’s decision not to review the panel’s decision in the Arkansas case, Chief Judge Steven Colloton, a nominee of former President George W. Bush, wrote the 8th Circuit continues on a “regrettable path of rendering unenforceable, in this circuit alone, the voting rights law that many have considered ‘the most successful civil rights statute in the history of the Nation.’ “

A Supreme Court brief on the Arkansas case is due Monday as the justices prepare to decide, at some point, whether to take it up.

Edited by Benjamin Swasey

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