Alaska
JetBlue-Alaska Makes Most Sense, But Does Alaska Want It? – Live and Let’s Fly
There’s been a lot of chatter this week about the possible targets from JetBlue for a merger, and among them Alaska makes the most sense, but are they interested?
JetBlue Explores Merger Targets
As Matthew recently reported in JetBlue Merger Talks Analysis, JetBlue has been actively exploring potential merger scenarios with a range of partners, including United, Alaska, and Southwest. The reporting makes clear this is not idle speculation but a structured evaluation, with advisers engaged and regulatory feasibility playing a central role in how each option is being considered. At its core, the move reflects mounting pressure on JetBlue to find a sustainable path forward after years of inconsistent profitability and a failed attempt to acquire Spirit Airlines.
What stands out in his analysis is how differently each potential partner would reshape JetBlue’s future. A tie-up with United offers the most obvious network and slot advantages but would face intense regulatory scrutiny, while Alaska presents a more palatable antitrust profile with less obvious synergy. Southwest, meanwhile, represents the most unconventional path, with significant cultural and operational hurdles. Taken together, the report underscores that JetBlue is not just exploring growth, it is confronting a pivotal moment that could redefine its place in the US airline industry.
I want to dive deeper into the Alaska angle for a number of reasons.
Alaska-JetBlue Is The Most Logical
As Matthew points out, the route network is perfect for an Alaska-JetBlue merger (though this would undoubtedly be an acquisition of JetBlue by Alaska Airlines.) Alaska has an excellent position on the west coast, and out to Hawaii. It’s spreading its wings from Seattle and already has international long haul from Hawaii to Asia as well. But the northeast is extremely limited both in terms of airports served and connectivity. No one in Boston wants to fly to Seattle or Portland to connect to west coast options. The same was true for JetBlue’s experiment with operations in Long Beach trying to setup a west coast hub.
However, pairing those two lucrative coastal markets would provide incredible coverage. In a few years together, it could make sense to add a midwest hub to carry some of the load.
Alaska has also had an exceptional run as of late, has cash, highly valued stock, and a management structure the industry can trust.
Reasons Alaska Could Be Interested
If Alaska is truly interested in becoming a global carrier, it would be hard to ignore the northeast US market. Expanding into that market would be incredibly expensive and deeply embedded flag carriers would fight tooth and nail, including JetBlue assuming there was no merger. Buying into it could be a different matter. The table is already set, the customers have similar ethos: happy to fly a regional carrier with international aspirations that provides better service and has a personality.
As a defensive measure, Alaska has an opportunity to block other mergers. JetBlue is in the market and will find a suitor (if it can gain DOJ approval.) Its market is desirable, so is its fleet even if it could be run more profitably than it has been in the last few years. United has indicated that it’s open to an agreement but it’s incumbent on JetBlue to come to terms. American wanted a tie-up, had one, then years after it was disallowed by the Biden DOJ is now suing its former partner. While Matthew suggests American might want JetBlue – and it might – the carrier is probably not on the best terms with JetBlue management to construct a favorable deal and it can’t afford to run itself let alone take on more debt. Alaska can swing in and ensure that no one else gets them and expands their footprint and that alone could be worthwhile.
Buying JetBlue also helps grow its ambitions internationally. There’s little doubt that the future of trans-Atlantic international travel, especially for premium markets, is going to be on a narrowbody aircraft. Alaska, itself, is adding flights this summer to Iceland from Seattle on a 737. A base on the east coast with routes that can go to both alliance partner cities like London, Madrid, and Helsinki, and underserved premium markets in Scotland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany, anywhere in western Europe, helps a great deal.
It’s not just the European routes, though. JetBlue also has excellent coverage throughout the northeast and via its Fort Lauderdale hub to destinations in the Caribbean. Alaska knows leisure markets well and was the largest operator to Hawaii for many years prior to its purchase of Hawaiian. But it has zero coverage in the Caribbean outside of Cancun and Belize City. Alaska with JetBlue could become a serious bi-coastal force.
Alaska could also cement its place as a serious contender domestically while it grows its international presence.
The credit card base could be an exciting component too, and would likely end Barclays involvement in the US airline affinity space entirely. TrueBlue is valued at $5.5bn (though $2.75bn was leveraged during COVID), and Bank of America only contributed $310MM last year, for which the airline still posted a substantial loss. The carrier also sells miles to American Express, Chase, Citi, and Capital One though each specific value is murkier. The airline expected $50MM in EBIT generated from its United partnership but this would almost certainly fall away in a an acquisition.
Reasons Alaska Will Pass
Jetblue is not in good financial shape. In 2024, the carrier posted a loss of nearly $800MM and while efforts in 2025 cut these losses by almost 25%, it still lost $600MM in 2025 too. At this pace the carrier will be breakeven at the turn of the decade. The value of the airline is not what it’s currently turning over but what it could be. That said, other mergers and acquisitions typically find significant cost savings when combining. Not just by reducing common route frequencies but also by shared resources in outstations (ex. instead of JetBlue and Alaska maintaining two check-in counters and gate allotments, it can reduce its overhead costs.) But these overlaps are limited ad thus so too would be cost savings.
Alaska is primarily a Boeing carrier with JetBlue an all-Airbus airline. This changes everything about the way a combined carrier would operate. It’s not just replacement parts and maintenance contracts but training facilities and range commonality. The Mint product from JetBlue is also something that the combined airline would want to keep especially for long haul flying internationally and trans-continental routes, but would be unlikely to equip across its own fleet even on its long haul narrowbody routes. That makes it tough to integrate.
The carrier is still busy with Hawaiian and its own expansion plans without inviting a regulatory challenge, and the mess of a far greater integration with more moving parts.
Would this type of acquisition face more scrutiny from oneworld than Hawaiian? Maybe, it’s a possible factor and as the airline grows globally, it’s something it will have to consider. American Airlines likely benefits from Alaska’s network participation in the Pacific Northwest and doesn’t really put up a fight in Los Angeles. But in the Northeast it could be a different story.
Conclusion
JetBlue should absolutely consider all viable options for a merger or an acquiring partner. Alaska could be a great fit for JetBlue, and frankly, US consumers. But Alaska doesn’t need another project and that’s exactly what JetBlue would be. It requires its own turn around, there’s no fleet commonality, and no significant operational cost savings. JetBlue might be a great fit for Alaska, but probably not right now. That said, I’d love to see it and it would make the combined carrier a juggernaut and offer serious competition on the coasts and against the majors.
What do you think?
Alaska
State of Alaska Secures Win in Fight for Transparency Around Oil Development
(Bethel, AK) –Wednesday, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a favorable opinion for the State of Alaska in ConocoPhillips Alaska v. Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (AOGCC), agreeing that State laws requiring disclosure of oil well data are not preempted by federal law.
“Alaska relies heavily on our resources and resource development,” said Acting Alaska Attorney General Cori Mills. “We are also stewards of those resources for the citizens of Alaska. Alaska’s law both allows resource development now, and encourages further development and exploration in the future. We’re pleased that the Ninth Circuit recognized that federal law has not overridden Alaska’s balanced approach.”
The Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission regulates oil and gas operations throughout Alaska, including within the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPR–A). Under Alaska law, companies need permits from the AOGCC to drill and must submit well data. The AOGCC is required to keep well data confidential for 24 months.
ConocoPhillips drilled several wells on lease holdings within the NPR–A and submitted data to the AOGCC. When the 24-month period expired, the AOGCC notified ConocoPhillips of the upcoming well data disclosure. ConocoPhillips sued in federal court to stop the disclosure process claiming that the Naval Petroleum Reserves Production Act, the federal law allowing private exploration in the NPR–A, preempted Alaska’s 24-month disclosure law. The federal district court found Alaska law preempted, and the AOGCC sought appellate review by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.
On appeal, the Ninth Circuit agreed with the AOGCC. The federal Production Act does not preempt state law. The Ninth Circuit therefore reversed the district court’s holding to the contrary.
“The Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission is pleased with the court’s decision upholding Alaska law,” said AOGCC Commissioner Jessie Chmielowski in a declaration filed in the litigation court. “Alaska’s balanced approach to well data confidentiality leads to increased exploration activity, not less. Alaska law allows for a two-year confidentiality period on exploration well data to leverage a company’s investment in drilling. Thereafter, making the data public has incentivized exploration on the North Slope. Placing well data in the public record allows competing companies to evaluate different exploration concepts or interpretations based on seismic data that, without well data, are just educated guesses.”
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Alaska
Opinion: A governor’s race for Alaska’s next generation
Alaska needs change. That’s why I’m running for governor: to bring new energy and a new generation of leadership to the governor’s office.
For 13 years in a row, more Alaskans have left our great state than have moved here. Prices are rising, schools are closing and Alaskans are getting left behind.
This year, those planning to leave Alaska include Ben and Catherine Walker, both recipients of Alaska’s Teacher of the Year Award. They can’t justify staying in the place they grew up in and love because of our failure to invest in the fundamentals, such as our schools.
The problem is personal. I’m 37. Many of those leaving Alaska are my age — debating whether there’s a future for us here or not. It’s a challenge we must solve.
I love challenges.
Back in 2012, I dropped out of college to challenge an entrenched Republican incumbent legislator who was running unopposed to represent my home region of Southeast Alaska. I launched a scrappy, grassroots campaign and focused on the kitchen table issues that matter to every Alaskan: good schools, getting our fair share of oil revenues, lowering costs, protecting our fisheries. I won — by 32 votes.
When I was sworn in, I was baby-faced and bushy-tailed, just 23 years old. It was the beginning of a decade-long tenure in the Legislature. A lot happened in those 10 years.
Among the most important: We formed the House Bipartisan Coalition in 2016. While I have a “D” next to my name, I believe strongly in working across party lines. That’s what the Bipartisan Coalition was, and is, all about: Democrats, moderate Republicans and independents, all working together to do what’s best for Alaska.
I want to bring that same bipartisan, vigorous problem-solving spirit to the governor’s office, where it has been nonexistent the last eight years.
As governor, I want to work hand in hand with the Legislature to deliver some desperately needed wins for Alaska that will make our lives better and get our state back on track:
• Reinvest in our public schools. Our school districts are in battlefield triage mode, but instead of amputating limbs, our school boards are forced to choose which sports to cut, which electives to discontinue and which neighborhood school to close. Enough already. Get school funding back up to par.
• Forward fund our schools. Our school districts shouldn’t have to guess how much education funding will end up being appropriated in end-of-session legislative haggling.
This circus forces school districts to prospectively fire teachers, then rehire them a month or two later, when they find out the final education funding number. It’s awful for all involved. We should fix it by forward funding.
• Close the Hilcorp corporate income tax loophole. Hilcorp should pay their fair share in taxes just as ConocoPhillips, and nearly every other major corporation in Alaska, already does.
• Lower the cost of energy. Chugach Electric Association, Golden Valley Electric Association, Homer Electric Association and Matanuska Electric Association operate about 1,700 megawatts in power generation capacity. Peak Railbelt winter demand is half that: about 850 megawatts. Guess who pays for the nearly gigawatt in underused and unused power plants? You, on your power bill. The governor should force the co-ops to work together, reduce redundancies and diversify energy sources, including renewables, in order to reduce the sky-high cost of energy for Alaskans.
• Lower the cost of childcare. Alaska has inadvertently created a system of childcare permitting and licensing that effectively amounts to death by a thousand pieces of paperwork. It’s creating scarcity and cost. We need to fix it.
• Lower the cost of housing. Cut red tape to make it easier and cheaper to build more homes of all kinds — from tiny homes and ADUs to manufactured and modular housing, to apartments and condos, to traditional single-family homes. More housing of all kinds, faster.
• Rein in bottom-trawl bycatch. I will nominate Alaskans to the North Pacific Fishery Management Council who will make sure that Alaska and Alaskans — not Seattle and Lower 48 industry interests — foremost benefit from our fisheries.
• Responsibly develop our resources. Support projects that have regional buy-in and support, such as Pikka on the North Slope, which just produced first oil this month, while saying “no” when the risks are too great and those in the region are opposed, as is the case with Pebble.
• Grow our tourism economy. And let’s crack the code on winter tourism while we’re at it. If Iceland can do it, we darn well can, too. Fairbanks is having burgeoning winter tourism success. Let’s follow their great lead.
• Make Alaska an awesome place to live. Let’s build dozens more public-use cabins. Let’s build an alpine hut-to-hut system like they have in New Zealand and the Alps. Let’s build the Alaska Long Trail. Let’s make Anchorage a world-class winter city.
Does this sound like the kind of Alaska you want to live in? Then I have great news: We are the governor campaign for you. And if what you just read gives you indigestion, you’ll be relieved to know you have 17 other options.
I have more great news: I can win.
After beating an entrenched Republican incumbent, I spent a decade representing a swingy district that voted for Donald Trump.
In those 10 years, I recorded some of the highest margins of crossover support from Trump voters of any Democrat in Alaska. I ran 12% ahead of Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 15% ahead of Joe Biden in 2020.
Here’s the simple truth: Whoever becomes our next governor will need to win with the support of significant numbers of independents and moderate Republicans, in addition to Democrats. I’ve done that. And I’ll do it again. Will you join me?
Former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins of Sitka is a candidate for governor of Alaska.
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Alaska
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