AUSTIN, Texas — February is typically one of our cooler months in Austin, Texas.
In 2021, a series of ice storms and snow storms caused mass chaos and is a winter storm that Austinites will never forget. Now, instead of worrying about scraping ice off of our cars, we’re grabbing the swimsuits.
Austin is in the midst of one of the warmest February’s in the city’s history. This year’s January cold snap lingered around for Feb. 1, but since then, only two days have been slightly below average. Compare that with 20 days above average, with the rest of this month expected to have temps in the mid to upper 80s.
But how does this compare to our warmest February ever? We don’t have to go back too far to find the hottest February on record in 2017. The average high temp was 76.5 degrees with 12 out of the 28 days spent above 80 degrees.
Other years in the top 5 were 1999, 1976, and 1957 with each year having numerous days above 80 degrees. So far, 2026 has ten. Plus, I’m forecasting 2 more 80 degree days. Should we hold onto this weather pattern, this will be in the top five hottest February’s of all-time.
Austin is in the midst of one of the warmest February’s in the city’s history. (Graphic: Michael Crowley)
For some, this heat may be just another day to grab the swimsuit or head outside and work up a sweat, but this has meteorologists sweating for different reasons. We are in a serious drought now.
The latest drought monitor released on Feb. 26, 2026 has 9 of the 13 counties in the CBS Austin viewing area in an “extreme drought,” which is the second worst category of drought conditions.
The latest drought monitor released on Feb. 26, 2026 has 9 of the 13 counties in the CBS Austin viewing area in an “extreme drought,” which is the second worst category of drought conditions. (Graphic: Michael Crowley)
In the past 190 days, two of those days have had rainfall over 1 inch. Our current streak of 123 days in a row with less than 1 inch in rainfall is one of the longest since 2000.
Combine the heat and the rainless days, and you get a flash drought. Opposite of a flash flood, hot temperatures rapidly dry out the soil and drought conditions can worsen quickly. With the dehydrated vegetation, dry air, and above average temperatures, you’re now looking at dangerous fire weather.
We’ve already had several fires reported across Central Texas in just the past week. The Nebo Mountain Fire in Gillespie County and the Cedar Gulch Fire in Burnet County. With this above average heat and below average precipitation, we are especially vulnerable.
But there is some good news.
The start of March looks to be starting off very warm, but our pattern looks to become a bit more active. Our long-term futurecasts look to be favoring more showers and storms possible for the first few weeks of March.
Remember that we are also getting closer to our severe weather season. So while we do need the rain, we must remain safe in case we get locally high rainfall amounts in these thunderstorms and be mindful of tornadoes and damaging winds.
Hopefully we can see an improvement in this drought and heat, but history is made in different ways every year nowadays. Maybe it’ll be for the right reasons this time around.