Florida
Florida vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?
Tennessee has almost certainly played itself out of the College Football Playoff conversation, but it can still put itself into a decent bowl and end its season on a high note with a win here, combined with another against insurgent rival Vanderbilt.
Florida has no ability to get to a bowl at just 3-7, but can hand two of its rivals an ugly late-season loss with a good showing against the Vols this week and then against Florida State in the finale.
1. Tennessee’s Offensive Explosiveness
Tennessee enters the matchup with the No. 2 offense in the country, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar and a host of playmakers at the skill positions.
The Volunteers average 43.4 points per game and almost 500 total yards, frequently hitting explosive plays in the passing game and mixing in a solid running attack.
For Florida to have a chance, its defense must contain Tennessee’s high-powered offense and disrupt Aguilar’s rhythm early.
2. Florida’s Run Defense and Second-Half Play
A key storyline is Florida’s struggle against the run, giving up 470 rushing yards in its last two games, and its inability to play a full 60 minutes, particularly on offense.
Tennessee uses their run game to set up play action, and Florida’s defense must get set quickly against the Vols’ up-tempo approach.
The Gators also need to improve offensively in the second half, as scoring droughts and stalled drives have cost them winnable games.
3. Turnover Margin
Both teams have had turnover issues, but it has been particularly damaging for Florida, ranking near the bottom nationally in giveaways.
Tennessee is opportunistic, forcing 19 turnovers this season, and the Volunteers thrive when winning the turnover battle.
Key takeaways or lost possessions could swing momentum and prove decisive in a game that is expected to be close, with simulations and expert picks predicting a one-score outcome.
Bettors predictably are siding with the Vols, but expect a much closer game.
Tennessee is a 3.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updates game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -178 and for Florida at +150 to win outright.
Tennessee has not won a game at Florida since 2003, a streak of 10 straight losses, but if there is a year where the Gators can get got in the Swamp, this is it. Just ask USF.
Joey Aguilar leads a Vols offense that is among the most explosive and consistent in college football, but it has one major weakness, turning the ball over at the worst times. Still, the Gators are worse in that department, averaging 90th in FBS in turnover margin.
Florida has bodies on defense that can make this interesting. Consider close results against Georgia and Ole Miss, and a win against a then top-ten Texas at home.
And with nothing to lose, they could make this very close, especially against a Tennessee pass defense that is just 118th in the country.
College Football HQ picks…
When: Sat., Nov. 22
Where: Florida
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Austin Smotherman will carry a three-stroke lead into the weekend at the Cognizant Classic at The Palm Beaches.
Smotherman followed his opening 62 with a 2-under-par 69 on Friday at PGA National’s Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. That brought him to 11 under, comfortably clear of Taylor Moore, who is in second after his second straight 4-under 67.
Cognizant Classic scoreboard
“Yeah, leading a PGA Tour event, come on, pretty awesome,” Smotherman said.
Smotherman, 31, is in fine position for his first win on the PGA Tour since turning pro a decade ago. He has won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour, including last June.
Afterwards, he credited himself with playing “Austin Smotherman golf.” When asked what that meant, he responded, “as boring and simple as it can be.
“That’s what I want to do out there. I feel like I ball strike it good enough to have that kind of boring golf, a bunch of fairways ideally,” he said.
He suffered three bogeys Friday after a bogey-free opening round, but the key stretch for him after starting on the back nine was between Nos. 17 and 3. He birdied four holes in that stretch, starting with a 54-foot bomb at the par-3 17th hole.
“Anything under par I thought would have been (good) following up a round like yesterday, which was a special one,” he said, “and try not to get too far ahead of myself thinking I’m going to make every long putt I’m looking at, like kind of was the feeling yesterday, and then today I still make a 55-footer on 17.”
Moore overcame a bogey in each half of his round with three birdies on either nine, more than counterbalancing the rough patches to earn his second straight solid score.
“I think very different 67s,” Moore said when comparing his rounds. “I didn’t hit many fairways yesterday, kind of grinded a lot, had a couple chip-ins, which obviously helps. I thought I struck the ball much better today. Drove it in the fairways on the par-5s, I felt like. Yeah, still had a few up-and- downs, obviously, with the tough windy conditions this afternoon, but overall I thought it was solid.”
Canadian A.J. Ewart had the round of the day, a 64 that powered him to 7 under for the week. He’s tied with Colombia’s Nico Echavarria (72), and Joel Dahmen is in fifth at 6 under after a second consecutive 68.
Ewart, who played for nearby Barry University in college, came in with some familiarity.
“We used to come and watch this tournament when I was at school. I think I came up here twice, maybe three times and watched,” Ewart said. “I had never actually played the golf course, but I felt like I knew it just from watching it.”
Irishman Shane Lowry, one of the most recognizable players in the field, is in a large knot for sixth at 5 under after posting a 67. Defending champion Joe Highsmith made the cut on the number at even par.
Notable players who missed the cut included Webb Simpson (1 over), Gary Woodland (2 over), Matt Kuchar (2 over) and Canada’s Adam Hadwin (3 over).
Kim maintains narrow lead in Singapore
Auston Kim maintained a narrow lead over three seasoned competitors with a 3-under-par 69 on Friday at the HSBC Women’s World Championship in Singapore.
Kim carded five birdies and a double-bogey at the par-5 16th hole at Sentosa Golf Club to move to 9-under par, one shot ahead of major champions Minjee Lee of Australia (64 on Friday) and Thailand’s Ariya Jutanugarn (67) and three- time LPGA Tour winner Haeran Ryu of South Korea (68).
Lurking two shots back at 7-under in the no-cut event are Australia’s Hannah Green (66), Denmark’s Nanna Koerstz Madsen (68), Sweden’s Linn Grant (69) and England’s Mimi Rhodes (69).
Kim, an LPGA Tour member since 2024, has been knocking on the door of her first tour win. The American has eight finishes in the top 10 and was the runner-up at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship last season.
“I think just sticking to my process. I’m trying to earn each shot and win each shot and win each day,” Kim, 25, said of her strategy heading into the weekend. “I can put a hundred percent of my focus into every single shot and try my best to execute each time, I’ll do well.”
Lee soared into contention with an eagle at the par-4 second hole and six birdies in a bogey-free round.
“I think just I holed a few more putts out there,” Lee said of the difference between Friday’s play and her opening-round of 72. “I holed a few long ones and I also holed out for eagle on the second. That always helps the score.”
Jutanugarn had six birdies, including three straight from holes Nos. 5-7, and one bogey.
Ryu collected four birdies in a round free of bogeys, but not free from pain.
“Today, my neck was so bad and I cannot turn it around, it’s so hard, my neck,” Ryu said. “But yeah, golf is not perfect. I just think about it, just hit the fairway and the green. Yeah, that’s good for me. There’s a lot of birdies, and yeah, I’m so happy.”
Angel Yin matched Lee for the low round of the day with a 64 to move into a tie for ninth at 6-under.
Defending champion Lydia Ko of New Zealand (72) remained a 2-under posting four birdies and four bogeys.
World No. 1 Jeeno Thitikul of Thailand is tied for 33rd at 1-under after a round of 70.
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