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Texas seeing an increase in kindergarteners who don’t meet state requirements for measles shots

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Texas seeing an increase in kindergarteners who don’t meet state requirements for measles shots

Before the pandemic helped fuel the growth of vaccine politicization across the country, less than 1% of Austin school district’s kindergarteners in the fall of 2019 failed to comply with the state’s vaccine reporting requirements.

Five years later, the Austin Independent School District had some of the state’s highest number of kindergarteners who neglected those state requirements — about 1 in 5 kindergarteners had not proven they were fully vaccinated against measles and did not file an exemption.

A Texas Tribune analysis has found that this explosion of vaccine non-compliance has played out across many school districts in the state in recent years, helping to push Texas’ measles vaccine coverage to the lowest it’s been since at least 2011.

“We definitely were on a better trajectory (before the pandemic),” said Alana Bejarano, executive director of health services and nursing for the Austin school district, which reported a 23% delinquency rate for the measles vaccines among their kindergarteners.

“I don’t know that I can pinpoint the concrete answer, except (preschool and kindergarteners) were born at a time where everything kind of went off track and getting them back into that, you know, that’s been difficult.”

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The Tribune examined kindergarten measles vaccination compliance because it’s the earliest the state documents school vaccination rates and measles can be especially deadly for young children. The state’s two measles deaths this year were girls ages 6 and 8. Under Texas vaccine requirements, most kindergarteners must show they are fully vaccinated against measles or file an exemption to enroll in school; most who are not fully vaccinated have an exemption.

During the pandemic, the statewide measles vaccine delinquency rate — a term the Texas Department of State Health Services uses to track students not compliant with those requirements — more than doubled.

The Tribune estimated the number of vaccine-delinquent kindergarteners in each district by comparing delinquency rates and enrollment totals.

In school districts with the most delinquent kindergarteners in the 2024-25 school year, the latest data available from the state, as much as 44% of their kindergarteners were delinquent in the measles vaccines, and their delinquencies also outnumbered exemptions, which was not the case at the state level. Those school districts had vaccine delinquency rates as small as a fraction of a percent just five years prior.

The five other vaccinations required for kindergarten followed similar increases in delinquency rates during the same time period.

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The pandemic is the driving force behind the increase in vaccine delinquency, school district officials say. Many children are entering school after falling behind on their immunizations during the pandemic, making it an untenable task for resource-strapped school districts to chase after parents to vaccinate their children or submit an exemption.

Meanwhile, access to vaccines, especially free and low-cost doses, have also dwindled over the last several years amid funding cuts and the politicization of vaccines.

State laws and rules don’t dictate who has to enforce vaccine compliance, although the Texas Department of State Health Services administers the law and school districts have traditionally been among the first line of enforcement.

While school districts acknowledge they are enrolling students not compliant with state vaccine requirements, district officials say they are caught in a no-win situation. Pushing vaccines too hard could lead to retaliation from groups and politicians opposed to vaccine mandates, and district officials don’t want to disenroll students — public schools have a responsibility to educate all children and so much of their funding is tied to attendance, too.

“We encourage our school nurses to advocate strongly to promote and protect public health at their campus,” Becca Harkleroad, executive director of the Texas School Nurse Organization. “But ultimately it’s up to the superintendent and the principal to decide how strictly they are going to enforce it or if they are going to enforce it.”

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Statewide, the percentage of kindergarteners who were delinquent in getting the measles vaccine more than doubled to 2.68% between 2019-20 and 2024-25, the latest data available. The delinquency rate jumped to 3.1% in 2021-22, surpassing the number of students who had an exemption. Those rates have not returned to pre-pandemic levels, although the exemption rate has returned to exceeding the delinquency rate.

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that a year ago 25,000 Texas kindergarteners were not fully vaccinated against measles. Of those, more than 16,000 had an exemption, and about 9,000 did not have an exemption and under the state’s definition, were vaccine delinquent.

The overall vaccine delinquency rates may be small, but anything that causes vaccination levels to fall means more children are vulnerable. Ideally, schools try to keep their vaccination levels at 95% to help protect those children with compromised immune systems or medical conditions that keep them from being vaccinated.

In addition to vaccine delinquency, the state also tracks the percentage of students who are vaccinated, formally exempt from vaccinations, and provisionally enrolled because of vaccination status.

Most unvaccinated students in Texas are permitted to enroll because they have an exemption form or a note from a doctor. They can also provisionally enroll without proving vaccination status if they are homeless, military dependents or in foster care and their records cannot be obtained by the start of the school year.

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The Texas measles kindergarten vaccination rate of 93% is the lowest it’s been since at least 2011, ranking the state 18th nationally.

“The decrease in vaccination rates overall is certainly a concern because it leaves our population vulnerable to different infections,” said Dr. Erin Nicholson, a pediatric infection physician at Texas Children’s Hospital and an assistant professor at Baylor College of Medicine. “And we saw that front and center with the measles outbreak that recently happened.”

Schools: A first line of defense against infectious disease

By the time most children enter kindergarten, they have received two MMR vaccination doses, which will provide lifelong protection against measles, as well as mumps and rubella for most people. The MMR vaccination for kindergarteners is considered one of the most important immunization targets by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

State health officials audit school vaccination records each year for accuracy, by sampling school district records, explains Chris Van Deusen, spokesperson for the Texas Department of State Health Services. But there is nothing in state rules that requires DSHS to enforce the vaccination requirement.

As a result, the de facto enforcement has traditionally fallen to school districts.

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Some of the state’s highest kindergarten measles delinquency rates were in larger school districts and charter networks: KIPP Texas Public Schools (44%), Spring ISD (30%), Austin ISD (23%), Dallas ISD (20%), and Houston ISD (7%).

The five public school systems with the highest counts made up more than half of all delinquent kindergartners in the state, despite enrolling less than 10% of the state’s public school kindergarteners.

Some district officials, including Dallas, say they try to follow state requirements by sending home students who do not have completed vaccination requirements or an exemption. But, they enroll those students, contributing to the district’s vaccine delinquency rate.

The Austin school district will also enroll the students who don’t meet vaccine requirements, but they wait to send those students home until their parents have been notified of their vaccine delinquency three times, Bejarano said. They can return once they have proof of vaccination or the exemption form.

State data doesn’t track how many vaccine-delinquent students school districts send home. It also doesn’t reflect changes to vaccine delinquency later in the year because the data is based on surveys school districts submit in the first half of the school year.

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While some school districts say they try to send home students who don’t meet vaccine requirements, Houston ISD officials said they are keeping those students in the classroom. They, too, dedicate time and resources to track all students’ vaccination status and try to communicate information with parents about the need for staying up to date on the schedule.

But, they are “not excluding students from learning based on vaccine status,” according to a statement to the Tribune.

Chanthini Thomas, a school nurse who retired from her job at Houston ISD’s Bellaire High School last summer, said the conflicting messages from the district, resource reductions and the yearlong chase to get vaccine paperwork in was frustrating.

“You have little support,” she said. “Why would you say … that’s a requirement to any school for the state of Texas but then you put out a mandate from the district to say, don’t let immunizations prevent enrollment? And the reason is because they need the numbers, because the numbers were dwindling.”

Like many other urban school districts, HISD is battling declining enrollment — and the funding that comes with it — as more families move toward better job opportunities and lower housing costs in the suburbs or choose charter and private schools.

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As school nurses have told the Tribune over the summer, school districts choose to enroll unvaccinated children so they can keep “butts in the seats” and the base amount of money they receive from state and local sources to educate each student — about $6,160.

“I see the school as being in a tough spot,” said Melissa Gilkey, a University of North Carolina professor who studies vaccine efforts at schools. “We work so hard to minimize absenteeism … that I do have some sympathy for that idea that it’s hard to exclude them for one health service.”

KIPP Texas Public Schools, a charter network with campuses across the state, declined an interview but insisted it was following the state immunization requirements. Its kindergarten measles vaccine delinquency rate was less than 1% in 2019 compared to 44% last year.

Spring ISD, north of Houston, reported last year that more than 30% of its kindergarteners were measles vaccine delinquent. The district informed the Tribune it also follows state rules closely but said its high MMR delinquency rate was evidence of “enrollment and access issues” and that Spring ISD was “actively working to strengthen this process.”

The Spring district cited family’s frequent moves in the area, limited access to health care and language barriers as reasons there’s a delay in getting student shot records updated in time for school.

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“We are committed to improving compliance rates and ensuring our students are protected against preventable diseases,” said Shane Strubhart, the Spring ISD spokesperson.

Access to vaccines has dwindled

The pandemic disrupted preventive health care, becoming most apparent in some of the most recent kindergarten classes, filled with students born around the first COVID-19 outbreak. The COVID-19 pandemic not only interrupted home and school life, experts say, it upended regular health checkups younger children typically receive before they start school and that impact continues to be felt today.

Families “going to see the doctors got off track for everyone during the pandemic,” Austin ISD’s Bejarano said.

For low-income and immigrant families who already found health care access a challenge, more are struggling to find what Bejarano calls their “medical” home, a regular primary care doctor who can either vaccinate their children or answer concerns and perhaps direct them to the state’s exemption process if they feel strong enough to opt out.

“COVID didn’t do vaccination or education and many other things as a whole, any favors,” said Jennifer Finley, executive director of health services for Dallas ISD. The district’s kindergarten measles delinquency rate jumped to 20% last school year compared to 1% during the 2019-20 school year.

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Diminished vaccine access is also a factor. Up until the early aughts, public health departments, churches and even lawmakers would hold free or low-cost immunization clinics over the summer for families.

In 2004, the Dallas school district turned away hundreds of students, who walked and drove to nearby clinics for free or low-cost vaccines, according to a Dallas Morning News article.

After the pandemic, those resources are even fewer.

“It really stopped during the pandemic,” Finley said. “Some of the folks lost their funding.”

Schools rely heavily on local public health departments to help them with vaccination clinics. Once the threat of COVID lessened, public health departments used those funds to add more staff and hold more vaccination clinics.

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But two things began impacting vaccination efforts by local health departments. First, those leftover funds were clawed back early by the Trump administration this year, prompting some staff to look for other jobs, thereby causing staff shortages in public health vaccination departments. And second, public health officials suspect more immigrant families are shying away from vaccination because of stepped-up immigration efforts and deportations.

In Texas, there are an estimated 111,000 immigrant children, all of whom do not qualify for state Medicaid health insurance coverage, attending school.

“We typically have big lines and the waiting room is packed. Our whole lobby is packed,” Dr. Phil Huang, the director of the Dallas County Health and Human Services Department, told the Tribune in August. “This year it has not been that way.”

Vaccine hesitancy changing school messaging

After the pandemic, many parents watched as debates raged over the safety of the quickly-developed COVID-19 vaccine. As a result, they are asking more questions about all childhood vaccinations.

In many cases, parents are spreading MMR doses out and that, too, could be the reason for more kindergartners showing up with an incomplete vaccination status, Bejarano said.

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“The main concern (among parents) is basically, ‘Am I doing the right thing for my child, that is in their best interest and help me understand what the risks are of these infectious diseases that vaccines are trying to prevent,’” Nicholson, the Texas Children’s physician, said.

Before COVID, many doctors adopted an imperial tone — “you should do this because I’m the expert,” she said. That changed after the pandemic. “We are looking at how we talk to these parents, because the last thing that we want to do is come across as condescending.”

School nurses have also worked tirelessly to try to find a winning formula to reach families of vaccine-delinquent kids. At a national school nurse conference in Austin this summer, an entire session was devoted to teaching nurses how to have tension-free conversations with parents who are skeptical of vaccine requirements.

Ultimately, school nurses just want to inform parents of their two options to stay compliant with state rules: either provide proof of vaccination or an exemption, Bejarano said.

“We’ve made these large campaigns and we are really kind when they register, letting them know what is the law, what the exemptions (are),” Bejarano said. “I just think the district in general is understanding we need to do better when it comes to public health and getting these rates up.”

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The good news, she says, is that the greater efforts made by school nurses in the fall to try to help parents become vaccine compliant tends to push down the high delinquency rates by the end of the school year. Data provided to the Tribune by Austin ISD proved that out. That 23% delinquency rate for kindergartners recorded in the fall of 2024 fell drastically to 6% by May 2025 possibly due to the fear produced by the measles outbreak in the months prior.

“I do think that everybody came together in the Austin community and really did try to push for that” compliance, Bejarano said. “And I think that’s why it helped the rate last year.”

Finley points to other lesser-known reasons complicating the back-to-school vaccination picture. Among them, an influx of students came to Texas from other states, many already armed with vaccination exemptions or with incomplete vaccination histories who are having to be re-educated about Texas requirements.

Starting Sept. 1, Texas parents can more easily obtain a vaccine exemption form by downloading it off the state’s website, but how that will impact the delinquency gap won’t be seen until data is released next year.

Nicholson, Finley, Bejarano and others say they would like to see more data that clearly explains the rising delinquency rate and how many students who were once marked delinquent end up becoming fully vaccinated or obtaining an exemption by the end of the year.

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“Does it mean, you know, people are just struggling with paperwork?” Nicholson said. “Or does it mean that really those vaccinations are falling?”

___

This story was originally published by The Texas Tribune and distributed through a partnership with The Associated Press.

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Pentagon hosts first-ever Israeli–Lebanese military talks aimed at curbing Hezbollah

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Pentagon hosts first-ever Israeli–Lebanese military talks aimed at curbing Hezbollah

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Israeli and Lebanese military delegations opened Pentagon-mediated talks Friday morning in Washington, launching a new U.S.-brokered security coordination track aimed at preventing renewed escalation along the Israel–Lebanon border and shoring up a fragile ceasefire reached in mid-April.

A State Department official told Fox News Digital that, “As we have continuously stated, the only path to lasting peace is through direct negotiations between the two sovereign governments.”

The discussions mark a shift from diplomatic negotiations into direct military coordination, with talks expected to focus on ceasefire enforcement, border stability, Israeli withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon and the role of the Lebanese Armed Forces in containing Hezbollah.

ISRAEL MOVES TOWARDS CEASEFIRE DEAL WITH HEZBOLLAH: REPORTS

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Michael Needham, counselor for the U.S. Department of State, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa, Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Nada Hamadeh Moawad, and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter pose for a photo before a meeting at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on April 14, 2026. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo)

The talks come weeks after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire first reached during the broader regional conflict tied to the U.S.–Iran war. While large-scale fighting has eased, Israeli forces continue operating inside parts of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah maintains drone and rocket capabilities, keeping tensions high along the border.

The ceasefire was extended on May 15 for another 45 days, creating pressure on both sides to show progress before the current arrangement expires.

But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse.

“This will be the first meeting between representatives of the militaries since the start of the negotiation process between Lebanon and Israel,” Ahmed Sharawi, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told Fox News Digital.

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Representing Lebanon in the talks is Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal, who previously served as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces in southern Lebanon, an area where Hezbollah maintains a strong presence. Hezbollah is the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organization designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization. 

“What we should expect is talks regarding de-confliction and what the expectations are for the LAF in terms of the broader disarmament plan against Hezbollah’s weapons,” he said.

Sharawi said the chances of a broader breakthrough remain limited so long as Hezbollah remains heavily armed and politically entrenched inside Lebanon.

“The biggest obstacle here is that the Lebanese state is yet to present a feasible plan to disarm Hezbollah,” he said.

LAWMAKERS QUESTION WHETHER US MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO CAPITALIZE ON HEZBOLLAH’S WEAKENED STATE

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But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse.  (Ibrahim AMRO / AFP via Getty Images)

He pointed to the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, which placed responsibility for disarming Hezbollah on the Lebanese state.

“We are yet to see the confiscation of one single bullet from Hezbollah,” Sharawi said.

He also warned that Hezbollah’s deep support among Lebanon’s Shiite population complicates any attempt to move toward normalization with Israel.

“There’s a fear of a civil war,” he said. “That also accounts for the Lebanese state’s unwillingness to disarm Hezbollah.”

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The talks opened as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled Israel intends to maintain military pressure on Hezbollah despite the negotiations.

Sharawi argued the Trump administration nevertheless appears determined to push the process forward as part of a broader effort to weaken Iranian influence in the region.

“The reason behind these meetings is that President Trump is really trying to push for a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon,” he said. “Peace between these two countries could really undermine Hezbollah and its influence in Lebanon.”

WALTZ SAYS TRUMP HAS CREATED ‘BEST CHANCE IN OUR LIFETIME’ TO BREAK HEZBOLLAH’S GRIP ON LEBANON

Churches in the southern Lebanese town of Rmeish remained standing throughout the conflict, as residents say the community resisted Hezbollah attempts to launch rockets from the area. (Jusoor News)

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Israeli analysts similarly described the talks less as a breakthrough and more as a strategic signal aimed at Hezbollah.

“The war between us and Hezbollah is continuing,” Yossi Kuperwasser, senior project manager at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former head of the Research Division of Israeli Military Intelligence, told Fox News Digital.

“There is no doubt the Lebanese government does not have a monopoly on the use of force in Lebanon,” he said.

‘OVERBLOWN’ REPORTS ON ISRAEL–LEBANON NORMALIZATION RISK HINDERING BORDER TALKS BEFORE THEY BEGIN: OFFICIAL

IDF troops discovered a Hezbollah weapons cache near a UNIFIL post in southern Lebanon in 2024. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)

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Kuperwasser said expectations for an immediate diplomatic breakthrough should remain low, but argued the talks themselves send an important political message.

“The purpose of these talks is first and foremost to send a message to Hezbollah and also to the Americans,” he said. “Both sides are prepared to sit together against Hezbollah and signal that they are moving, even if slowly, toward normalization between Israel and Lebanon.”

He argued Hezbollah has been weakened politically and militarily by the ongoing conflict and by growing frustration among Lebanese civilians displaced by the fighting.

“For years Hezbollah portrayed itself as the defender of Lebanon,” Kuperwasser said. “Now many Lebanese see Hezbollah as responsible for the suffering Lebanon is experiencing.”

Kuperwasser added that while Israel supports strengthening the Lebanese army, Beirut fears direct confrontation with Hezbollah could ignite another civil war.

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“The Lebanese government fears military action against Hezbollah would lead to civil war,” he said. “That fear shapes everything.”

The talks also come amid mounting domestic pressure inside Israel, where critics of Netanyahu have accused the government of pursuing containment rather than decisive military victory against Hezbollah.

Speaking Friday during a visit to Israel’s northern front, Netanyahu said Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River and were operating across multiple parts of Lebanon. 

“We are operating in Beirut, in the Bekaa Valley, across the entire front and striking Hezbollah hard,” Netanyahu said.

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A woman holds her dog as she walks past burned cars a day after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, on April 9, 2026. (Emilio Morenatti/AP)

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s leadership is attempting to balance growing American pressure with fears of internal instability and renewed sectarian conflict.

Neither the Israeli Embassy in Washington nor the Lebanese Embassy in Washington immediately responded to requests for comment. The Pentagon did not have anything to add when asked to comment. 

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Israel, Russia among new additions on UN sexual violence ‘blacklist’

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Israel, Russia among new additions on UN sexual violence ‘blacklist’

The United Nations has confirmed it placed Israel on a blacklist of countries suspected of committing sexual violence against civilians, and pushed back on accusations made by Israel regarding its inclusion.

The list, part of a “conflict-related sexual violence” report released on Friday, prompted Israel’s foreign ministry to say it would sever all ties with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

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Last August, the UN cited “credible information” regarding sexual violence committed by Israeli security forces against Palestinian detainees in prisons and other detention centres, and said UN inspectors had been denied access to the facilities.

“We invited the representative of the UN to come to Israel to check those ridiculous allegations. They chose not to come,” Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon posted on X on Thursday.

“I never received an iota of information on measures taken by the government of Israel on implementation of the preventive measures,” Pramila Patten, the UN official who authored the report, told reporters on Friday at a briefing at the UN’s New York headquarters.

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“I have made several requests in writing, and sometimes during meetings, for details about initial steps, including the issuance of orders of command information on access and information on accountability measures, but I did not get any response on the substantive aspect of the preventive measures,” she added.

Patten did confirm that there had been an invitation from Israel, but referred also to disagreements about the scope of the visit and related issues of access and cooperation, and said it ultimately had to be suspended due to Israel’s war on Gaza.

‘Multiple incidents’ in Gaza and occupied West Bank

This year’s report ⁠said that in 2025 “the United Nations verified multiple incidents of conflict-related sexual violence, including as a form of torture, inflicted against 14 men, seven women, nine boys and one girl from the Gaza Strip and the [occupied] West Bank.”

It said 13 of the attacks happened last year, and 18 in 2023 and 2024.

“Violations consisted ⁠of rape, including with objects, gang rape, attempted rape, physical violence to the genitals, instances of targeted shooting of the genitals, touching ⁠of breasts and genitals, strip and cavity searches conducted without apparent security justification, forced nudity and threats of rape,” it said.

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“Rape and gang rape, in some cases repeated, were perpetrated against nine victims, the majority Palestinians from Gaza,” it said, adding that perpetrators included Israeli armed and security forces. The assaults occurred primarily during detention and interrogation in several sites, including military camps, at checkpoints and during Israeli military operations in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

It said survivors included journalists and human rights defenders and in some cases, the violations were filmed or photographed, including one case of rape.

The report added that sexual violence against female detainees included mostly threats of rape, forced nudity, unwanted touching, and humiliating or degrading strip searches without justification, while men and boys were targeted with rape, attempted rape and violence to the genitals.

This resulted in five male victims suffering severe rectal bleeding or swelling for multiple days or ‌weeks, ‌it added.

Russia added to list alongside Israel

The latest UN report also contains harrowing descriptions of abuses at the hands of Russia’s military after “findings of continued patterns of sexual violence documented”.

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The UN human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine had verified 310 cases of conflict-related sexual violence perpetrated by Russian armed and security forces.

It said the cases, including rape, gang rape, genital mutilation, electric shocks and beatings to the genitals, injured 280 men, 26 women and four girls.

The report’s annex lists 77 parties deemed responsible for patterns of conflict-related sexual violence, including 62 non-state actors.

New additions include three non-state armed groups operating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Nearly 10,000 cases of conflict-related sexual violence were recorded worldwide last year – more than double the previous year’s figure, the report said.

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Being added to the list does not automatically carry specific punitive measures such as sanctions, although public naming and shaming can cause significant reputational damage for the ‌states involved, and those repeatedly listed are barred from UN peacekeeping operations.

Patten said the increase in cases of conflict-related sexual violence verified by the United Nations marks a very disturbing trend that was still only the “very tip of the iceberg”.

“This number can ⁠be attributed to the fact that we are going through a time when we have a record number of extremely violent conflicts, and the fact that perpetrators are feeling emboldened by a context of impunity, where this crime is almost cost-free,” she said.

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How Japan Lost 3 Million People in Five Years

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How Japan Lost 3 Million People in Five Years

Japan’s population fell by more than 3 million over the past five years, according to official statistics released on Friday, a drop that underscores the depths of the country’s accelerating demographic crisis.

The population stood at 123 million in 2025, according to preliminary census results, down from 126.1 million in 2020. It is the biggest decrease since the government began collecting census data in 1920.

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Japan’s population loss is accelerating

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Change in population every five years

Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

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Japan’s population peaked in 2008 at 128 million, and it is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070. The country is now roughly the same size it was in 1989.

For decades, the Japanese authorities have tried to make up for the rapidly aging population by encouraging young people to have more children. But the effort has fallen short, leaving the country with one of the world’s lowest birth rates. For each new birth, there are two deaths.

Japan is a harbinger of the demographic headwinds that will soon buffet other developed countries. The shrinking population is already constraining Japan’s economic growth, putting pressures on its health care system and causing labor shortages.

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The census data shows that the demographic crisis has now reached almost every part of Japan. All but two of the country’s 47 prefectures reported population decreases in 2025, and the rate of decline is accelerating.

Among the hardest hit areas were the northern prefectures of Akita and Aomori, where the population shrank by about 8 percent from 2020 to 2025. Those areas are home to some of Japan’s oldest residents, and young people have left at a rapid rate because of stagnant wages and harsh winters.

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Most of Japan is losing population

The Japanese countryside is hollowing out as the population ages and young people leave to seek jobs in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and other cities. In some rural areas, schools are being converted into nursing homes and community centers. Millions of homes are vacant; government offices and hospitals are downsizing; and train lines are shutting down.

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Opening Japan’s doors more widely to foreigners could help offset the declines. But the government has long taken a cautious approach to immigration, and nationalist politicians and commentators have gained influence recently with a “Japan First” agenda.

“Japan has now reached a level where this kind of decline is not reversible in the short- or medium-run,” said James Raymo, a professor of sociology at Princeton University who studies Japan. “It simply will not happen in the absence of mass immigration.”

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There were a few bright spots in the census, including Okinawa, a subtropical chain of islands in the south, where the population grew slightly. Okinawa has Japan’s highest fertility rate, with women there giving birth to an average of 1.5 children in their lifetimes, compared with 1.1 nationally.

Japan’s biggest cities are managing to stave off demographic decline — for now. The population of the Tokyo metropolitan area, which includes Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures of Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, rose slightly to 37 million in 2025. The area now accounts for roughly 30 percent of Japan’s total population.

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Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

Tokyo, a vibrant hub of business, politics and culture, is now about 20 times denser than the rest of Japan — and one of the world’s densest cities. (Tokyo’s population rose more than 1 percent to 14.2 million in 2025.) The growth has been fueled in large part by an influx of students and young workers looking for jobs and educational opportunities.

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Japan’s woes are likely to worsen in the coming decades. It will probably become increasingly difficult to find workers to staff schools, hospitals, police departments and train stations. And the country could lack enough young people to pay the taxes necessary to support retirees.

Professor Raymo said the Japanese government’s efforts to promote fertility had “not really moved the needle.” He said that ultimately Japan could provide lessons for other governments.

“More and more countries in Asia and elsewhere will experience similar levels of demographic decline,” he said. “Japan is just at the forefront and has been at it much longer.”

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