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‘Worst kind of setup for the Fed’: What Wall Street is saying about the central bank’s next rate decision

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‘Worst kind of setup for the Fed’: What Wall Street is saying about the central bank’s next rate decision

Weak labor market data overshadowed a sticky inflation print last week, keeping investor expectations intact that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its policy meeting on Wednesday.

Government data released Thursday showed that consumer prices rose 0.4% in August from the previous month, an uptick from July’s 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, separate data showed weekly jobless claims rising to 263,000 — the highest in nearly four years, up from a revised 236,000 the prior week.

The Fed weighs its dual mandate of full employment and price stability when deciding whether to change interest rates. Given the dynamic of a slowing jobs market coupled with sticky price increases, Wall Street strategists told Yahoo Finance that the Fed has a complicated decision ahead.

“It’s the worst kind of setup for the Fed,” Claudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist and former Federal Reserve Board economist, told Yahoo Finance. “They will not be cutting because we have good news on inflation. They’ll be cutting because we have bad news on employment.”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference after the central bank’s July meeting. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates next week. (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo) · Reuters / Reuters

Sahm expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points during its two-day meeting this week. She noted, though, that inflation is “still too firm.”

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Other strategists agreed: “Inflation is still elevated. It’s been elevated, and it’s moving in the wrong direction right now,” Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research, told Yahoo Finance.

Sticky inflation may keep the Fed cautious after September, RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas said.

“Yes, you’re going to get your rate cut out there in trading land,” Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance. “But I have to tell you, the underlying tenor of the data doesn’t suggest that it’s a lock that you’re going to get three rate cuts before the end of the year.”

Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related

As of Friday, investors were pricing in a 76% probability of three rate cuts this year, according to the CME FedWatch, as the labor market shows increasing cracks.

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Thursday’s jobless claims data was the latest to underscore the slowdown. A sweeping jobs revision released earlier this week showed the US employed 911,000 fewer people between April 2024 and March 2025 than originally reported.

Still, the slowdown doesn’t appear to be pushing the economy over a cliff.

“We’re not getting this hard landing like collapse in the job market,” Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder Lakshman Achuthan said. “This could get rough at some point … but it’s not yet.”

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Finance

Consumer confidence plunges among younger adults

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Consumer confidence plunges among younger adults

Consumer confidence has plunged among traditionally optimistic younger adults amid fears for their personal finances and the wider economy, figures show.

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index remained unchanged at an overall score of minus 23 in June.

However, the analyst said this was was “misleading as, beneath the surface, there are new signs that confidence is weakening”.

Source: GfK

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “The biggest fall this month is among those aged 16 to 29, traditionally one of the most optimistic groups.

“Here confidence has dropped 11 points over the past month to minus two, the lowest level seen for two years, driven by large falls in views on both their own personal finances and the wider economy.

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“More broadly, there are now no demographic groups with a positive confidence score, including higher-income households earning £50,000 or more, who have slipped back into negative territory as of June.

“Confidence remains subdued and vulnerable to further economic or political uncertainty.”

Sourve: GfK
Sourve: GfK

Overall, confidence in personal finances over the coming year remained flat at minus two, four points lower than this time last year.

The measures of both personal finances and the economy over the previous 12 months were both slightly down, by two points and three points respectively, “reflecting the sense that things have been extremely tough over the last year for so many”, GfK said.

The only measure to increase was expectations for the wider economy over the next 12 months, up two points to minus 36 but still eight points below this time last year.

The major purchase index, an indicator of confidence in buying big ticket items, remained at minus 20, four points lower than June last year.

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How US-Iran peace deal will affect our cost of living

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How US-Iran peace deal will affect our cost of living

“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” said Donald Trump on social media after he announced the signing of an interim peace deal with Iran on Sunday. Under the agreement – which Iran acknowledged included a 60-day negotiating period for a final deal – the president said that following retrieval of mines, there would be a “toll free opening” of the Strait of Hormuz.

But many of the finer details remain “unclear”, said The Guardian. There are questions over the “exact timing of the reopening of the maritime route, who will oversee safe passage and whether any conditions will be applied”.

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Hong Kong graduates prefer careers in finance, survey finds

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Hong Kong graduates prefer careers in finance, survey finds
Hong Kong graduates believe the city’s finance industry is its most attractive and stable sector, making them more optimistic about career opportunities than their global peers, according to a study by the CFA Institute, which trains investment managers.

The US-based institute’s “2026 Graduate Outlook Survey”, released on Wednesday, found that 71 per cent of Hong Kong graduates rated their career prospects between eight and 10 out of 10. The global average for that level of optimism was 59 per cent.

The graduates’ view of careers in finance reflected “both the sector’s resilience and Hong Kong’s continued strength as an international financial centre, which ranks third worldwide and first in Asia-Pacific”, the institute said in a statement.

The findings also indicated that young people were confident about Hong Kong’s role as an international financial centre, resilient amid global uncertainties, and strategically focused on improving skills, it said.

That confidence was “deeply grounded”, it said, with nearly 90 per cent believing they had the skills to succeed and clearly understood what employers were looking for, notwithstanding the wider adoption of artificial intelligence in the city.

“Rather than viewing AI as a threat, 38 per cent of Hong Kong graduates believe it has no negative impact on their job hunting, and 37 per cent believe it makes securing a job easier,” the institute said. “Three quarters are already actively using AI tools in their job applications, demonstrating a proactive, tool-first mindset.”

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