Health
How Much Vaccination Stops a Measles Outbreak?
To stop the spread of an infectious disease like measles, you don’t have to vaccinate everyone. But you do have to vaccinate many.
Just how many? To let you discover for yourself, we simulated an outbreak of a hypothetical disease, about as contagious as the flu. (A lot less contagious than measles.)
We’d like you to contain it. But first, some basics:
Here’s a sick person in a population with no protection against the disease.
That person infects some neighbors.
Who, in turn, do the same.
Soon, almost everyone has been infected.
In a world where no one has immunity, infectious diseases spread exponentially. That’s what happened early in the Covid pandemic.
But for most infectious diseases, many people will already have some level of immunity — whether through a previous infection or through vaccination — and this can slow the spread.
Now it’s your turn to try.
Level 1: Less Contagious
How low can you set the vaccination rate to contain the outbreak?
This simulation uses randomness, so the results will turn out somewhat differently every time you play it. But there are patterns that you can discover: When the vaccination level is below around 40 percent, outbreaks are very likely. Above that level, they’re quickly extinguished.
Chance of an outbreak growing out of control for a less contagious disease
That sharp gradient from red to white shows us this “herd immunity” threshold, where vaccination can halt an outbreak and protect the unvaccinated. (Including those who can’t be vaccinated, such as infants and people with weakened immune systems.)
The difference is stark. A little below that threshold, outbreaks easily grow out of control. Above it, they are quickly squelched. This is why it’s so important to keep vaccination levels above the herd immunity threshold.
Next, let’s see what happens with a disease that’s more contagious.
Level 2: More Contagious
How low can you set the vaccination rate to contain the outbreak?
Because this disease is more contagious, it can more easily slip through the gaps of unvaccinated people.
That’s why the vaccination level needed for herd immunity rose from around 40 percent to around 60 percent in this example: It takes greater levels of vaccination to contain a more contagious infectious disease.
Chance of an outbreak growing out of control for a less contagious disease …
… and for a more contagious disease
So far, all our simulations have assumed that vaccination is evenly distributed. In reality, that isn’t the case.
Our final simulation tries to capture two neighboring communities. Think of them like two school districts in the same county. In one district, 75 percent of students are vaccinated. In the other, just 50 percent are.
That means the average vaccination rate for the county overall is 63 percent — right around the herd immunity threshold for our simulated disease. But see what happens.
Unvaccinated pockets
50% Vaccinated
75% Vaccinated
For the most part, the 75 percent district is protected, while the 50 percent district is overrun, even though they sit right next to each other. Herd immunity operates at a local level, and the average vaccination rate for a broad region can mask smaller communities at risk.
On a few tries, you might have gotten lucky and seen the outbreak fizzle out. This, too, mimics reality. But luck is not an effective public health strategy.
The simulated world you saw above mirrors a real-world problem: There are increasingly many parts of the U.S. where skepticism of vaccines has gained momentum and childhood vaccination rates have fallen.
And measles is far more contagious than the disease we simulated — because of space constraints, we could not even simulate it in this form. It’s so contagious that a vaccination rate of 50 percent or even 75 percent won’t contain an outbreak.
How contagious is measles?
Epidemiologists estimate the contagiousness of an infectious disease with a “basic reproductive number,” or R0 — how many people a sick person infects, in a community with no protection.
A disease can grow out of control if an infected person infects more than one other person, on average. A person with the flu can infect one to two others — an R0 between 1 and 2.
But a person with measles can infect 10 times as many:
Disease
Contagiousness (Est. R0)
Measles
Whooping cough
Covid (Omicron)
Chickenpox
Polio
Covid (Delta)
Flu (1918)
Seasonal flu
For measles, a 1982 study put its R0 between 12 and 18. A more recent review of studies found a very wide spread, with a median of around 15 in the Americas.
That means measles is one of the most contagious diseases known. And there’s a direct relationship between contagiousness and the level of protection needed for herd immunity.
Population protection needed for herd immunity
Reaching herd immunity means each infected person can infect only one other person or fewer, on average. That means, at the high end of the measles range, you’d need to prevent 17 of 18 infections, or over 94 percent. That’s why health officials set a goal of vaccinating 95 percent of people against measles.
(The measles vaccine, unlike vaccines for some other infectious diseases, is very effective and its protection lasts decades; measles also is extremely unlikely to develop mutations that allow it to evade the vaccine.)
The average vaccination rate for kindergartners in the U.S. has fallen below that threshold since the pandemic. Most kindergarteners now live in states where the vaccination rates are below herd immunity.
Number of states with kindergarten measles vaccination rates below 95 percent
Many kindergartners live in counties and go to schools where the rates have fallen even further, below 80 percent or even below half — making it possible for measles to spread like wildfire.
Health
Weight gain in certain decade of life may be more dangerous, study suggests
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Weight management is often treated as a “middle-age” problem, but new research suggests that the pounds you pack on in your 20s may be the most dangerous of your life.
A massive study of more than 620,000 individuals found that the damage from early weight gain is disproportionately high and surprisingly permanent. According to the findings, the younger someone is when obesity sets in, the higher the risk of early mortality.
The study, published in the journal eClinicalMedicine, analyzed data from the Obesity and Disease Development Sweden project.
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“The most consistent finding is that weight gain at a younger age is linked to a higher risk of premature death later in life, compared with people who gain less weight,” Tanja Stocks, a professor at Lund University and one of the researchers behind the study, said in a press release.
New research suggests that the pounds you pack on in your 20s may be the most dangerous of your life. (iStock)
Developing obesity between the ages of 17 and 29 was linked to a 70% higher risk of early death compared to weight gain later in life.
Weight gain later in adulthood, between ages 30 and 60, was also linked to higher death rates, but the connections were generally weaker.
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“One possible explanation for why people with early obesity onset are at greater risk is their longer period exposed to the biological effects of excess weight,” Huyen Le, a doctoral student at Lund University and first author of the study, said in the release.
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When weight gain happens in the 20s, the blood vessels, liver and metabolic systems endure obesity-related strain for decades longer than someone who gains the same weight in their 50s, experts say.
Weight gain later in adulthood, between ages 30 and 60, was also linked to higher death rates, but the connections were generally weaker. (iStock)
The study identified type 2 diabetes as the leading cause of death associated with early-onset obesity. Other significant risks included high-blood pressure, liver cancer in men and uterine cancer in women.
To reach these conclusions, researchers tracked participants’ weight paths across adulthood over more than 50 years, focusing on three specific windows: ages 17 to 29, 30 to 44, and 45 to 60.
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Using a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher to define obesity, the team compared weight data against Sweden’s national death registry.
After adjusting for a variety of factors, including smoking habits and marital status, the trend showed that becoming obese later in life still carried risks, but the danger compounded the longer people stayed obese.
While type 2 diabetes is the leading risk, early-onset obesity is also tied to higher rates of high-blood pressure and specific cancers. (iStock)
While these findings highlight the “importance of early and sustained obesity prevention strategies,” the researchers noted that other factors come into play, and that increases in risk within a population can be difficult to interpret.
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“We shouldn’t get too hung up on exact risk figures,” Stocks said.
“They are rarely entirely accurate, as they are influenced, for example, by the factors taken into account in the study and the accuracy with which both risk factors and outcomes have been measured.”
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Because the study was conducted in Sweden, more research is needed to understand the effect of early-onset obesity in other populations, the team noted.
Health
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Health
Popular weight-loss medications linked to hidden side effects, study finds
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In a sweeping analysis of more than 400,000 Reddit posts, researchers have revealed some little-known GLP-1 side effects.
GLP-1 receptor agonists — such as semaglutide (Ozempic and Wegovy), and tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound) — have been most commonly associated with gastrointestinal side effects, such as nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and constipation.
A new study published in Nature Health, however, uncovered some overlooked effects.
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University of Pennsylvania researchers used artificial intelligence to analyze more than five years of Reddit posts from more than 67,000 people taking the popular drugs for diabetes or weight loss.
While clinical trials are still the “gold standard,” the researchers noted that Reddit community feedback reflects a different population.
GLP-1 receptor agonists — such as semaglutide (Ozempic and Wegovy), and tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound) — have been most commonly associated with gastrointestinal side effects, such as nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and constipation. (iStock)
“People often use medications differently than they’re prescribed, so it’s also important to look at real-world usage, which can diverge from usage in a clinical trial,” lead researcher Neil Sehgal, a PhD student at the University of Pennsylvania, told Fox News Digital. “So there are many possible reasons we’re seeing signals that the trials may have missed.”
Overlooked effects
Nearly half of the users reported one or more side effects. The most common were nausea, vomiting and constipation, which aligned with what clinical trials found, according to Sehgal.
“We’re almost certainly capturing a skewed slice of the full picture.”
“We did notice a few side effects that have not previously been reported for these drugs,” he told Fox News Digital.
“For example, about 4% of users who described side effects reported menstrual irregularities. Other Redditors described unusual temperature-related symptoms, like chills or hot flashes.”
OBESITY EXPERT REVEALS THE BEST WAY TO DECIDE IF GLP-1S ARE RIGHT FOR YOU
Nearly 13% of users also experienced psychiatric symptoms, such as anxiety, depression and insomnia. More than 5% also complained of abdominal pain, acid reflux, headache and dizziness.
“Fatigue was also the second most commonly reported symptom overall, but has met relatively few reporting thresholds in existing trials,” Seghal noted. “This gap between what patients are self-reporting online and what gets captured in trials is really what motivated this whole line of work.”
Clinical context
Dr. Sue Decotiis, a New York City-based board-certified weight-loss physician, noted that many of the reported symptoms, such as disorientation and fatigue, are most likely due to dehydration and hypoglycemia (low blood sugar).
“People often use medications differently than they’re prescribed, so it’s also important to look at real-world usage, which can diverge from usage in a clinical trial,” the lead researcher said. (iStock)
“Patients should be carefully monitored using a structured protocol that ensures proper nutrition and adequate hydration, ideally under the direct supervision of a physician experienced in metabolism and weight loss,” Decotiis, who was not involved in the study, told Fox News Digital.
“Additionally, body composition analysis can help identify issues such as muscle loss, excessive water loss or insufficient fat loss.”
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A significant concern, according to the doctor, is that many individuals are accessing these medications through online platforms or without receiving appropriate medical care.
“In my experience treating thousands of patients with various GLP-1 medications, complications are rare and typically occur only when patients are noncompliant,” she added.
Study limitations
As the data came from Reddit users, who tend to be younger, primarily male and mostly based in the U.S., it may not represent everyone taking these medications, the researchers noted.
“In my experience treating thousands of patients with various GLP-1 medications, complications are rare and typically occur only when patients are noncompliant,” a weight-loss doctor shared. (iStock)
“And even within Reddit, the people who post about their side effects are probably not typical of everyone on the medication,” Sehgal said. “If you had a good experience, you’re less likely to be writing about it online. So we’re almost certainly capturing a skewed slice of the full picture.”
The researchers also noted that the study can’t prove the drug caused the reported symptoms.
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“To be clear, we can’t say for certain whether these drugs are causing menstrual irregularities,” Sehgal said. “Patients on Reddit aren’t going to self-report every symptom they have, and they may also report things that aren’t actually linked to the medications. So it’s important to treat this as hypothesis-generating signals and do more research.”
The researchers noted that the study can’t prove the drug caused the reported symptoms. (iStock)
The study also didn’t include GLP-1 dosage, duration of the medication and symptoms, or other health conditions the users experienced. There is also the chance that the AI tools misunderstood meanings or context, the researchers noted.
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The results must be confirmed with more rigorous research, Sehgal said. “That’s how we’ll get real answers about prevalence and causality, which social media data alone can’t provide.”
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“These are signals, not conclusions – but I do think it’s always worth talking to your doctor about anything unexpected you’re experiencing while on a new medication, even if you’re not sure if it’s related,” he advised. “So if something feels off, say something.”
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