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Estimates Imply That Tariffs Could Fall Heavily on Consumers

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Estimates Imply That Tariffs Could Fall Heavily on Consumers

President Trump has said that his aim in imposing tariffs is to force companies to move production back to the United States. If manufacturers make their goods in America, he argues, they won’t have to pay the tariffs.

But the latest revenue projections proffered by his administration call into question what Mr. Trump wants to achieve with the tariffs he is imposing on both allies and adversaries.

Peter Navarro, a senior trade adviser to Mr. Trump, told Fox News on Sunday that the sweeping tariffs the president was imposing would raise about $6 trillion over the next decade, with those revenues going toward funding “the biggest tax cut in American history for the middle class.”

While he insisted that Americans would not bear the cost, those estimates imply that the burden of tariffs could fall heavily on consumers, rather than encouraging companies to reshore supply chains.

Trade experts have argued that using tariffs to raise revenue directly contradicts the goal of using tariffs to bring factories back to the United States. In order for the government to take in so much revenue, Americans would need to continue buying substantial amounts of imported products.

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Mr. Navarro said the administration would also lower costs for Americans by bringing down gas prices. Trump officials have said that would be accomplished by drilling for more oil in the United States.

“Tariffs are tax cuts, tariffs are jobs, tariffs are national security,” Mr. Navarro said. “Tariffs are great for America.”

Mr. Trump is expected to introduce global tariffs on other countries this week, and has also repeatedly talked about replacing taxes with tariffs. But the U.S. government raises about $2 trillion from individual and corporate income taxes. In 2024, the United States imported $4 trillion of products, meaning tariffs would have to be extremely high to replace tax revenue.

Calculations by economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics suggested that tariff revenue could peak at about $780 billion annually with a 50 percent tariff on all imports. After that, the amount of revenue would shrink. That’s because when tariffs reach a certain level, consumers tend to stop buying imported products, meaning the revenue they generate decreases.

The Yale Budget Lab estimated that the auto tariffs scheduled to go into effect on Thursday could raise $600 billion to $650 billion between 2026 and 2035. But those prices would fall heavily on consumers. U.S. vehicle prices would rise by 13.5 percent on average, the equivalent of an additional $6,400 for the price of an average new 2024 car. Every American household would pay an extra $500 to $600 as a result of the tariffs, the group estimated.

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Mr. Trump campaigned on reducing inflation that plagued the United States and other countries during the Biden administration.

Mr. Navarro said that tariffs had led to price stability and prosperity in Trump’s first term and would again. “Trust in Trump,” he said.

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Video: How the Save America Act Could Change Voting

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Video: How the Save America Act Could Change Voting

new video loaded: How the Save America Act Could Change Voting

Legislation that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote is only the beginning as Republicans press to sharply limit voting in line with President Trump’s false claims of widespread fraud. Our congressional correspondent Annie Karni describes two of the bills and their prospects.

By Annie Karni, Rebecca Suner, Nikolay Nikolov, Whitney Shefte and Sutton Raphael

February 21, 2026

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Newsom weighs in on social media age restrictions, citing experience as a parent: ‘We need help’

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Newsom weighs in on social media age restrictions, citing experience as a parent: ‘We need help’

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom entered the battle over social media age limits for kids under 16 on Thursday, stating “it’s long overdue.”

Newsom shared his thoughts on the issue during a news conference regarding public transportation in the Bay Area. 

He shared his own experience as a father, recalling a recent incident where he confronted his daughter and her friends at a birthday party.

“I literally stopped everybody because there were seven of them together on their cellphone at the birthday party, not one of them talking to each other,” Newsom told reporters. 

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FRANCE LAWMAKERS DECLARE ‘BATTLE FOR FREE MINDS’ AFTER APPROVING SOCIAL MEDIA BAN FOR CHILDREN UNDER 15

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has entered the battle over social media age limits for kids. (Tayfun Coskun/Getty Images)

Seven members of the California State Assembly introduced a bipartisan bill this month to establish a minimum age requirement to “open or maintain a social media account.”

“It’s long overdue that we’re having the debate we’re having now in the legislature, and I’m very grateful the legislature is taking this very seriously,” Newsom said.

The bill doesn’t clarify a cutoff age.

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The bill cites preexisting laws that “impose various requirements on social media platforms,” including things such as requiring platforms to post terms of service, “disclose threat reporting procedures and maintain a law enforcement contact process.”

JILLIAN MICHAELS: BIG TECH BUILT A DIGITAL DRUG — AND OUR KIDS ARE HOOKED

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks on social media usage for teens during a press conference on Thursday. (Governor Gavin Newsom via YouTube)

Newsom also stated he recently met with leaders at the Munich Security Conference and World Economic Forum in Switzerland concerning social media.

“I was overseas to meet with Prime Minister Sanchez of Spain, who’s also moving in this direction. We had a direct conversation about this. I also met with the Vice Premier of Australia,” Newsom said.

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“It’s something that I’m very grateful that we are debating and pursuing at the state level,” Newsom continued.

Newsom later confirmed to Politico that he wants state legislation that would restrict access to online platforms for individuals under 16. 

Newsom spokesperson Tara Gallegos said the governor supports “age-gating rules,” inspired by rules that took effect in Australia.

NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF AMERICAN VOTERS BACK SOCIAL MEDIA BAN FOR KIDS UNDER 16, FOX NEWS POLL SHOWS

Newsom wants state legislation that would restrict access to online platforms for kids under 16.  (Anna Barclay/Getty)

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He doubled down in a social media post Saturday, saying, “Bad news for child predators: they’ll soon lose access to kids on the platforms they use to groom them,” while taking a swipe at President Donald Trump.

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“As a parent, we need help,” Newsom said Thursday. “We have a generation that’s never been more anxious, less free, more stressed and we have to address this issue.”

Newsom’s office and the White House did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

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Democrats’ fear rising that too many candidates in governor’s race could lead to a Republican victory

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Democrats’ fear rising that too many candidates in governor’s race could lead to a Republican victory

Leaders of the California Democratic Party, along with liberal activists and loyal power brokers, are openly expressing fear that their crowded field of candidates running for governor may splinter the vote and open the door to a surprise Republican victory in November.

Because of those concerns, the Democrats lagging at the bottom of the pack are being urged to drop out of the race to ensure that the party’s political dominance in statewide elections survives the 2026 election.

“California Democrats are prepared to do what’s required,” state party chairman Rusty Hicks told reporters at the California Democratic Party’s annual convention on Friday. “We are ready and willing and able to do what’s required … to ensure we have a strong candidate coming out of the primary to do what’s required in November.”

Nine prominent Democrats are running to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, compared with two top GOP candidates, and could divide the Democratic electorate enough that the two Republicans could receive the most votes in the June primary and advance to the November election. Under California’s “jungle primary” system, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation.

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Hicks was deferential to the Democratic candidates who have long served in public office and have compelling personal tales and the experience to take the helm of the state. But he said there is the harsh political reality that a viable candidate needs to raise an enormous amount of money to have a winning campaign in a state of 23.1 million registered voters and some of the most expensive media markets in the nation.

The party, its allies and the candidates themselves have a “collective commitment to ensuring we do not see a Republican elected [for governor],” Hicks said.

While Hicks and other party leaders did not publicly name the candidates who ought to leave the race, among the candidates lagging in the polls are state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon.

Democratic voters vastly outnumber the number of registered Republicans in the state, and no Republican has been elected to statewide office since 2006.

But given the sprawling field of gubernatorial candidates, the lack of a clear front-runner and the state’s unique primary system, the race appears up for grabs. According to an average of the most recent opinion polls, conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — both Republicans — are tied for first place, according to Real Clear Politics. Each received the support of 15.5% of voters. The top Democrat, Rep. Eric Swalwell of Dublin, Calif., was backed by 12.5%.

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In 2012, Republicans finished in first and second place in the race for a San Bernardino County congressional district — despite Democrats having a solid edge in voter registration. The four Democrats running for the seat split the vote, opening the door for a victory by GOP Rep. Gary Miller. Pete Aguilar, one of the Democrats who lost in the primary, went on to win that seat in 2014 and has served in Congress ever since.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) on Friday pushed back at the fears that two Republicans will win the top two gubernatorial spots in June.

“That’s not going to happen,” she said in an interview after speaking at a young Democrats’ reception. “And everything that you should know about the Democrats this year is we are unified. As I say, our diversity is our strength, our unity is our power. And everybody knows that there’s too much at stake.”

However, the scenario has prompted a cross section of the typically fractious party to unite behind the belief the field must shrink, whether by candidates’ choice or through pressure.

Jodi Hicks, the leader of Planned Parenthood’s California operations, said that the organization is laser-focused on congressional races, but having two Republican gubernatorial candidates “would be nothing short of devastating.”

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“We have not weighed in on the governor’s race, but we are paying close attention to whether this comes to play, and whether or not we do decide to weigh in and make sure that doesn’t happen,” she said.

Newsom and legislative Democrats have tried to buffer the massive federal funding cuts to reproductive care. A November election with two Republicans on the gubernatorial ballot would eliminate a key partner in Sacramento, and could affect turnout in down-ballot congressional and legislative races.

“A top-two Republican [race] would certainly have dire consequences for the midterm battle and to the governor’s office,” Jodi Hicks said.

Lorena Gonzalez, the leader of California Federation of Labor Unions, noted that her organization’s endorsement process begins on Tuesday.

“I think we are going to have some pretty honest discussions with candidates about their individual paths and where they are,” she said. “They’re all great candidates, so many of them are really good folks. But it’s starting to get to be that time.”

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She expects the field to begin to thin in the coming days and weeks.

The conversation went beyond party leaders, taking place among delegates such as Gregory Hutchins, an academic labor researcher from Riverside.

“My goal at the convention, it’s not necessarily that the party coalesces around one particular candidate, but more, this is a test to see what candidates have a level of support that they can mount a successful campaign,” said the 29-year-old, who said he hopes to see some candidates drop out after the weekend.

“Am I concerned long term that [a top-two Republican runoff] could be a thing? Yes and no,” he said. “I’m not concerned that we’re not going to solve this problem before the primary, but I do think we need to start getting serious about, ‘We need to solve this problem soon.’”

Not everyone agreed.

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Tim Paulson, a San Francisco Democrat who supports Yee, called efforts to push people out of the race “preemptive disqualification.”

“This is nothing but scare tactics to get people out of the race,” he said. “This is still a vibrant primary. Nobody knows who the front-runner is yet.”

Bob Galemmo, 71, countered that many people did not believe Donald Trump would be elected president in 2016 and fears two Republicans could advance to the general election.

“You should never say never,” he said. “If we could get down to like four or five [candidates], that would be helpful.”

The efforts have already begun.

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RL Miller, the chair of the state Democratic Party’s environmental caucus, said Yee ought to drop out.

Yee, “who is at the bottom of the polls, needs to be taking a good long look at whether she is serving the party or being selfish by staying in the race,” Miller said.

Yee, a former state party vice chair, pushed back forcefully, saying pressure to drop out of the race “would just be undemocratic.”

“First of all, I’ve served this party for a long time. I don’t do it out of selfishness, by any means,” she said at a Saturday gathering where she provided breakfast burritos to delegates. “But I’ll just say this — the race is wide open.”

Yee‘s campaign manager noted that the largest group of voters is still undecided, and the candidate said no one has asked her directly to exit the race, but that someone started a rumor a month or two ago that she was going to drop out and run for insurance commissioner instead.

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“I’m not dropping out, and I don’t think any candidate should go out,” Yee said.

Calderon said Swalwell had urged him to get out of the race.

Calderon defended staying in the race to try to reach undecided voters during a gubernatorial forum at the Commonwealth Club on Friday.

“I stay very consistent in that 1 to 3% range,” he joked. “But my challenge is access to resources and visibility, which is something that could change within a day with the right backing and support.”

Swalwell did not respond to a request for comment.

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