Politics
What Does a Shutdown Have to Do With the Budget or Elon Musk? Here’s a Guide.
Republicans in government are hard at work refashioning federal spending through three major efforts, proceeding along parallel tracks. They may seem to be all the same story — and they do relate to each other — but they each have their own goals, deadlines and constraints. Here, a guide to all three.
Effort 1: Avoiding a shutdown
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Potential changes: The bill would fund a portion of the budget — hundreds of billions of dollars — for the rest of the fiscal year.
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Deadline: Saturday at 12:01 a.m.
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Status: A House vote is scheduled for Tuesday.
If Congress doesn’t pass a bill to fund ongoing government programs by the end of Friday, there could be a shutdown.
Congress is supposed to pass yearlong spending bills before a fiscal year begins, through a process known as regular appropriations. That process often breaks down, so Congress frequently passes shorter-term spending bills every few months instead to keep the government funded. The latest such “continuing resolution” expires this week, and a new one, which would fund the government through the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30, is on the table.
The appropriations process deals with only a portion of all federal spending — often called discretionary. It doesn’t affect “mandatory” programs like Social Security, which pay out benefits on a kind of autopilot, based on a formula. The resolution is also subject to a filibuster in the Senate, which means that at least seven Democrats will need to vote for it even if every Senate Republican supports it.
The current bill mostly allows the government to spend the same amount on most government agencies it has been spending all year, with a few key exceptions, including cuts to programs earmarked by lawmakers for their home districts, and an increase in military spending. Compared with last year’s funding, it reduces the amount allowed by around $7 billion — roughly 0.1 percent of the estimated $7 trillion in annual government spending.
Effort 2: Passing Trump’s agenda in one big bill
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Potential changes: Trillions of dollars in changes to both tax revenue and spending, over 10 years.
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Deadline: Oct. 1, or the process must start over.
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Status: The budget resolution passed the House. The timing of next steps is unclear.
The House adopted a budget outline for what the government should spend and raise over the next decade. That budget is the very first part of a process that could help Republicans cut taxes and reshape large government programs. Republicans have chosen this route, known as reconciliation, so they can pass their policies without needing any Democratic votes in the Senate.
The reconciliation process still has many steps left to go. Republicans in the Senate would need to adopt a matching budget resolution, and many have expressed reservations about the House approach (the Senate has passed its own, smaller budget plan). Then both chambers will have to write and pass legislation that carries out the cuts and increases in spending outlined in the budget.
By design, budget reconciliation mostly addresses the parts of federal spending that are not part of the appropriations process. This includes mandatory programs like Medicare, Medicaid, food assistance, student loans and farm aid that get automatically funded unless Congress makes changes to their structure.
The budget adopted by the House would also allow tax cuts of around $4.5 trillion over a decade, partly offset by around $2 trillion in spending reductions. It also includes a few spending increases, for the military and border security. The combination could increase deficits by an estimated $3.4 trillion, including interest on federal debt.
Because the budget process affects a decade at a time, the numbers above are 10-year changes. That’s part of why they are so much larger than the numbers used to describe the continuing resolution, which covers only about half a year’s worth of spending.
Effort 3: Using Elon Musk’s team to cut the budget
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Potential changes: The stated goal is to cut around 15 percent of next year’s budget.
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Deadline: That fiscal year ends in October 2027.
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Status: The cuts from Mr. Musk’s team are continuing, with new layoffs and contract cancellations announced this week.
Mr. Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur, is leading his own effort to trim government spending, and it’s unclear exactly how it will come to intersect with the work of Congress. He has pledged to use a team called the Department of Government Efficiency to reduce federal spending by $1 trillion in the next fiscal year, an ambitious target that would be hard to achieve without legislation.
So far, Mr. Musk’s team has been directing agencies to fire workers and cancel government contracts, grants and leases. The majority of those changes affect the discretionary part of the budget — the smaller portion of government spending that Congress is also trying to address this week.
Mr. Musk and Congress seem to be clashing. The current continuing resolution mostly leaves agencies funded at their current level, and does not take account of the changes by Mr. Musk’s group. But there has been some discussion about codifying some of Mr. Musk’s cuts using a process called rescission.
The effort by his team has also mostly ignored the military, which makes up more than half of discretionary spending.
Some of the group’s changes could affect federal revenues, too. His team is enacting large staff reductions at the Internal Revenue Service, which collects taxes and investigates tax fraud. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that a smaller I.R.S. staff generally means fewer taxes are collected.
P.S. Don’t forget about the debt limit
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Potential changes: Without legislation, the U.S. could fail to pay its obligations and default.
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Deadline: Sometime this summer.
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Status: The Treasury Department is already using “extraordinary measures” to prevent a default for as long as possible.
As federal debt rises, Congress has to periodically pass legislation that allows the Treasury Department to keep issuing bonds. It’s unclear when the country will run out of options to prevent a default, but many budget experts believe it will be as soon as this summer.
If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, the country will begin defaulting on its debt, an action likely to have negative and cascading consequences for the U.S. economy. Payments to Social Security beneficiaries, medical providers and government workers could stop.
House Republicans have folded this increase in borrowing authority into their big budget bill. But if the reconciliation process isn’t finished in time, Congress may have to pass an increase to the debt limit some other way.
Politics
Video: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran
new video loaded: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran
By David E. Sanger, Gilad Thaler, Thomas Vollkommer and Laura Salaberry
March 1, 2026
Politics
Dems’ potential 2028 hopefuls come out against US strikes on Iran
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Some of the top rumored Democratic potential candidates for president in 2028 are showing a united front in opposing U.S. strikes on Iran, with several high-profile figures accusing President Donald Trump of launching an unnecessary and unconstitutional war.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris said Trump was “dragging the United States into a war the American people do not want.”
“Let me be clear: I am opposed to a regime-change war in Iran, and our troops are being put in harm’s way for the sake of Trump’s war of choice,” Harris said in a statement Saturday following the joint U.S. and Israeli strikes throughout Iran.
“This is a dangerous and unnecessary gamble with American lives that also jeopardizes stability in the region and our standing in the world,” she continued. “What we are witnessing is not strength. It is recklessness dressed up as resolve.”
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Gov. Gavin Newsom are leading Democratic 2028 hopefuls who spoke out against U.S. strikes on Iran. (Big Event Media/Getty Images for HumanX Conference; Reuters/Liesa Johannssen; Mario Tama/Getty Images)
California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivered some of his sharpest criticism during a book tour stop Saturday night in San Francisco, accusing Trump of manufacturing a crisis.
“It stems from weakness masquerading as strength,” Newsom said. “He lied to you. So reckless is the only way to describe this.”
“He didn’t describe to the American people what the endgame is here,” Newsom added. “There wasn’t one. He manufactured it.”
Newsom is currently promoting his memoir, “Young Man in a Hurry,” with recent and upcoming stops in South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada — three key early voting states in the Democratic presidential calendar.
Earlier in the day, Newsom said Iran’s “corrupt and repressive” regime must never obtain nuclear weapons and that the “leadership of Iran must go.”
“But that does not justify the President of the United States engaging in an illegal, dangerous war that will risk the lives of our American service members and our friends without justification to the American people,” Newsom wrote on X.
California is home to more than half of the roughly 400,000 Iranian immigrants in the United States, including a large community in West Los Angeles often referred to as “Tehrangeles.”
DEMOCRATS BUCK PARTY LEADERS TO DEFEND TRUMP’S ‘DECISIVE ACTION’ ON IRAN
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., a leading progressive voice and “Squad” member, accused Trump of dragging Americans into a conflict they did not support.
“The American people are once again dragged into a war they did not want by a president who does not care about the long-term consequences of his actions. This war is unlawful. It is unnecessary. And it will be catastrophic,” Ocasio-Cortez said.
“Just this week, Iran and the United States were negotiating key measures that could have staved off war. The President walked away from these discussions and chose war instead,” she continued.
“In moments of war, our Constitution is unambiguous: Congress authorizes war. The President does not,” she said, pledging to vote “YES on Representatives Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie’s War Powers Resolution.”
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker criticized the strikes and accused Trump of ignoring Congress. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for Vox Media)
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, another Democrat often mentioned as a potential 2028 contender, also criticized the strikes and accused Trump of ignoring Congress.
“No justification, no authorization from Congress, and no clear objective,” Pritzker wrote on X.
“Donald Trump is once again sidestepping the Constitution and once again failing to explain why he’s taking us into another war,” he continued. “Americans asked for affordable housing and health care, not another potentially endless conflict.”
“God protect our troops,” Pritzker added.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro focused his criticism on war powers, arguing Trump acted outside constitutional guardrails.
“In our democracy, the American people — through our elected representatives — decide when our nation goes to war,” Shapiro said, adding that Trump “acted unilaterally — without Congressional approval.”
JONATHAN TURLEY: TRUMP STRIKES IRAN — PRECEDENT AND HISTORY ARE ON HIS SIDE
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro focused his criticism on war powers, arguing Trump acted outside constitutional guardrails. (Rachel Wisniewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“Make no mistake, the Iranian regime represses its own people… they must never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons,” he said. “But that does not justify the President of the United States engaging in an illegal, dangerous war.”
Shapiro added that “Congress must use all available power” to prevent further escalation.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also accused Trump of launching a “war of choice.”
“The President has launched our nation and our great military into a war of choice, risking American lives and resources, ignoring American law, and endangering our allies and partners,” Buttigieg wrote on X. “This nation learned the hard way that an unnecessary war, with no plan for what comes next, can lead to years of chaos and put America in still greater danger.”
Buttigieg has been hitting early voting states, stopping in New Hampshire and Nevada in recent weeks to campaign for Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who has been floated as a rising national figure within the party, said he lost friends in Iraq to an illegal war and opposed the strikes.
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“Young working-class kids should not pay the ultimate price for regime change and a war that hasn’t been explained or justified to the American people. We can support the democracy movement and the Iranian people without sending our troops to die,” Gallego wrote on X.
Fox News’ Daniel Scully and Alex Nitzberg contributed to this report.
Politics
Commentary: With midterm vote starting, here’s where things stand in national redistricting fight
Donald Trump has never been one to play by the rules.
Whether it’s stiffing contractors as a real estate developer, defying court orders he doesn’t like as president or leveraging the Oval Office to vastly inflate his family’s fortune, Trump’s guiding principle can be distilled to a simple, unswerving calculation: What’s in it for me?
Trump is no student of history. He’s famously allergic to books. But he knows enough to know that midterm elections like the one in November have, with few exceptions, been ugly for the party holding the presidency.
With control of the House — and Trump’s virtually unchecked authority — dangling by a gossamer thread, he reckoned correctly that Republicans were all but certain to lose power this fall unless something unusual happened.
So he effectively broke the rules.
Normally, the redrawing of the country’s congressional districts takes place once every 10 years, following the census and accounting for population changes over the previous decade. Instead, Trump prevailed upon the Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, to throw out the state’s political map and refashion congressional lines to wipe out Democrats and boost GOP chances of winning as many as five additional House seats.
The intention was to create a bit of breathing room, as Democrats need a gain of just three seats to seize control of the House.
In relatively short order, California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, responded with his own partisan gerrymander. He rallied voters to pass a tit-for-tat ballot measure, Proposition 50, which revised the state’s political map to wipe out Republicans and boost Democratic prospects of winning as many as five additional seats.
Then came the deluge.
In more than a dozen states, lawmakers looked at ways to tinker with their congressional maps to lift their candidates, stick it to the other party and gain House seats in November.
Some of those efforts continue, including in Virginia where, as in California, voters are being asked to amend the state Constitution to let majority Democrats redraw political lines ahead of the midterm. A special election is set for April 21.
But as the first ballots of 2026 are cast on Tuesday — in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas — the broad contours of the House map have become clearer, along with the result of all those partisan machinations. The likely upshot is a nationwide partisan shift of fewer than a handful of seats.
The independent, nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has a sterling decades-long record of election forecasting, said the most probable outcome is a wash. “At the end of the day,” said Erin Covey, who analyzes House races for the Cook Report, “this doesn’t really benefit either party in a real way.”
Well.
That was a lot of wasted time and energy.
Let’s take a quick spin through the map and the math, knowing that, of course, there are no election guarantees.
In Texas, for instance, new House districts were drawn assuming Latinos would back Republican candidates by the same large percentage they supported Trump in 2024. But that’s become much less certain, given the backlash against his draconian immigration enforcement policies; numerous polls show a significant falloff in Latino support for the president, which could hurt GOP candidates up and down the ballot.
But suppose Texas Republicans gain five seats as hoped for and California Democrats pick up the five seats they’ve hand-crafted. The result would be no net change.
Elsewhere, under the best case for each party, a gain of four Democratic House seats in Virginia would be offset by a gain of four Republican House seats in Florida.
That leaves a smattering of partisan gains here and there. A combined pickup of four or so Republican seats in Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri could be mostly offset by Democratic gains of a seat apiece in New York, Maryland and Utah.
(The latter is not a result of legislative high jinks, but rather a judge throwing out the gerrymandered map passed by Utah Republicans, who ignored a voter-approved ballot measure intended to prevent such heavy-handed partisanship. A newly created district, contained entirely within Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County, seems certain to go Democrats’ way in November.)
In short, it’s easy to characterize the political exertions of Trump, Abbott, Newsom and others as so much sound and fury producing, at bottom, little to nothing.
But that’s not necessarily so.
The campaign surrounding Proposition 50 delivered a huge political boost to Newsom, shoring up his standing with Democrats, significantly raising his profile across the country and, not least for his 2028 presidential hopes, helping the governor build a significant nationwide fundraising base.
In crimson-colored Indiana, Republicans refused to buckle under tremendous pressure from Trump, Vice President JD Vance and other party leaders, rejecting an effort to redraw the state’s congressional map and give the GOP a hold on all nine House seats. That showed even Trump’s Svengali-like hold on his party has its limits.
But the biggest impact is also the most corrosive.
By redrawing political lines to predetermine the outcome of House races, politicians rendered many of their voters irrelevant and obsolete. Millions of Democrats in Texas, Republicans in California and partisans in other states have been effectively disenfranchised, their voices rendered mute. Their ballots spindled and nullified.
In short, the politicians — starting with Trump — extended a big middle finger to a large portion of the American electorate.
Is it any wonder, then, so many voters hold politicians and our political system in contempt?
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