Business
Column: Did business leaders do enough to head off Trump's tariff saber-rattling? Obviously not
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers posted some well-chosen words Saturday about Donald Trump’s bewildering and pointless tariff war, which had been launched earlier that day.
In a string of tweets he called the 25% tariffs Trump proposed on goods from Canada and Mexico “inexplicable and dangerous,” joined the near-unanimous chorus of economists in predicting that the tariffs would raise domestic prices on “automobiles, gasoline, and all kinds of things that people buy,” and noted that the arbitrary imposition of tariffs would lead other countries to view the U.S. as a “bad partner,” which will “undermine our economy, our power and our national security.”
The tariffs, Summers wrote, are “an important test for the business community,” which knows that “this is not a pro-business strategy … I hope business leaders have the courage to say so.”
CEOs have kept their powder dry from public discourse knowing that Trump hates the humiliation of being trapped in a corner and can lash out like a wounded animal.
— Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, Yale
If only.
Summers’ plea came late, after the tariffs were announced. But with a few notable exceptions, America’s business leaders were silent about the sheer madness of Trump’s launching a trade war without legitimate justification.
In the months, weeks and days before the announcement, they spoke vaguely about how they would navigate tariff barriers affecting their own industries, but little about the broader ramifications. And even the fiercest critics of the tariffs bent a knee to Trump’s ostensible but exaggerated rationale for the tariffs, the flow of fentanyl and undocumented workers coming into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico.
For the most part, the business community’s pushback against tariffs played out via news releases covered largely by the business press, if at all. The impending economic crisis warranted a more direct response in which business leaders tried to seize the stage back from Trump, outlining in ways that ordinary Americans would understand the costs that every American household will shoulder if the tariffs continue.
They didn’t do that.
Business leaders may have calculated that Trump’s breast-beating about imposing higher tariffs was just talk, or part of a negotiating strategy. As it happened, they appear to be right. Monday, hours before the tariffs were to take effect, Trump backed away, agreeing to pause the tariffs for a month, pending negotiations with both cross-border partners.
But Trump’s actions rattled the financial markets, which didn’t fully recover losses sustained while the tariffs appeared to be imminent. Also rattled was the faith of foreign governments in America’s steadfastness, which may not recover as long as Trump is in the White House.
“CEOs have kept their powder dry from public discourse knowing that Trump hates the humiliation of being trapped in a corner and can lash out like a wounded animal,” says Yale business professor Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, whose insights into chief executive thinking are unmatched.
Let’s go deeper into the business community’s unsuccessful campaign, such as it was, against the tariffs.
On Saturday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce called foul on Trump’s citing the Carter-era International Emergency Economic Powers Act as the statute giving him unilateral authority to impose tariffs by citing an “emergency situation” caused by “illegal aliens and drugs” coming from beyond the border.
“The imposition of tariffs under IEEPA is unprecedented, won’t solve these problems, and will only raise prices for American families and upend supply chains, chamber Senior Vice President John Murphy said.
On Jan. 16, in her annual address on the state of American business, chamber CEO Suzanne P. Clark warned that “blanket tariffs would worsen the cost-of-living crisis, forcing Americans to pay even more for daily essentials like groceries, gas, furniture, appliances, and clothing. And retaliation by our trading partners will hit our farmers and manufacturers hard, with ripple effects across the economy.”
The National Assn. of Manufacturers also issued a strongly worded response, noting that “a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico threatens to upend the very supply chains that have made U.S. manufacturing more competitive globally. The ripple effects will be severe, particularly for small and medium-sized manufacturers that lack the flexibility and capital to rapidly find alternative suppliers or absorb skyrocketing energy costs. These businesses — employing millions of American workers — will face significant disruptions.”
From there, however, there’s a sharp drop-off in the vigor of comments from American industry about tariffs with the potential to upend the global economy. At General Motors, the American automaker most exposed to the impact of the tariffs, CEO Mary Barra wanly addressed the issue during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings announcement conference call Jan. 28.
Barra noted in response to a question that GM builds trucks in Mexico and Canada, “so we can look at where the international markets are being sourced from. So there’s plays that we can do on that perspective to minimize the impact if there are tariffs either on Canada or Mexico…. We’re doing the planning and have several levers that we can pull.”
That was it; no observations about tariff policy itself or its broader economic implications.
A spokesperson told me Monday that the company had “no new statements … at this time” and referred me to its trade groups, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation and the American Automotive Policy Council.
The council has merely asked that its cars and parts be exempted from any new tariffs without making any observations about the consequences of a tariff war. On Saturday, the alliance observed that “seamless automotive trade in North America accounts for $300 billion in economic value” and added, “We look forward to working with the administration on solutions that achieve the president’s goals and preserve a healthy, competitive auto industry in America.”
Drug overdose deaths have been falling sharply since mid-2023, raising questions about Trump’s rationale for tariffs at the Mexican and Canadian borders.
(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
I’ve written before that counting on corporate leaders to stand firm against policy threats to American democracy or the U.S. economy is a mug’s game. But these tariffs took direct aim at American businesses, which should have gotten them more stirred up.
The Business Roundtable, an organization of CEOs of top U.S. corporations, was especially mealymouthed. In a statement issued Sunday, it said, “We agree with the President’s goals of securing our borders and stopping the flow of illegal drugs into the country…. Business Roundtable hopes that Mexico, Canada and the U.S. can quickly reach a deal to strengthen security at the border.”
I asked the Roundtable whether it had anything to add, and got a rather snarky response from Michael Steel, its head of communications, that my question “seems a bit OTBE’ed at the moment.”
Steel meant “overtaken by events,” by which he was referring to an announcement Monday that Trump had decided to put Mexican tariffs on hold for a month, based on Mexico’s purported agreement to send 10,000 troops to the border.
As it happens, Mexico had already reached a similar agreement with the Biden administration without Biden’s having had to threaten to trash the global economy. There’s no indication that the 10,000 troops will be additional to the 15,000 troops deployed earlier. Trump is also said to be planning a talk with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Could American CEOs have headed off the tariffs chaos either by a more focused publicity campaign or more jawboning with Trump? That’s impossible to say, in part because business leaders haven’t been out in front of Trump’s tariff policy in any broadly public way, and because no one can be sure why Trump had decided to impose steep tariffs on America’s most important trading partners without provocation.
More than two dozen CEOs had contacted Trump privately, Sonnenfeld told me, but their efforts to dissuade him plainly didn’t stop him from announcing the tariffs.
The corporate reaction to Trump’s tariff obsession shows that business leaders are still afraid of confronting Trump directly even as his policies threaten to erode their sales and profits, not to mention to undermine the rule of law in the U.S. in ways they will regret.
We know this because even the sternest statements from business organizations embraced Trump’s stated rationale of securing the borders. As a preface to its statement objecting to the tariffs, the Chamber of Commerce said “the President is right to focus on major problems like our broken border and the scourge of fentanyl.”
This isn’t an expression of fact about the border; it’s a shibboleth, designed to communicate that, all things considered, the chamber is still down with Trump’s leadership in general terms.
The truth is that Trump’s rationalizations don’t stand up to scrutiny. Under Biden, enforcement at the Mexican border was sharply stepped up, with 54,000 “encounters” recorded in September 2024, down from 250,000 in December 2023, according to the Migrant Policy Institute. In part this was the result of stronger enforcement by the Mexican government.
On fentanyl, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Drug Enforcement Administration both documented major victories in stemming the flow of illegal fentanyl into the country and sharply reduced overdose deaths. Drug overdoses peaked at about 114,000 in the year that ended June 2023, were down to less than 90,000 in the year that ended August 2024 and seemed destined to continue falling. Trump has claimed that 300,000 people are dying every year from drugs smuggled from Mexico, but that figure has never been true.
Nor is fentanyl smuggling a significant issue on the Canadian border; in fiscal 2024, U.S. agencies seized 21,000 pounds of fentanyl at the Mexican border, but only 43 pounds at the Canadian border.
All this points to the basic instability of American foreign relations in the Trump regime. Our business leaders need to acknowledge that such a situation won’t be good for anybody, and poses a particular threat to our relations with countries that have been loyal allies of the U.S.
That gives new meaning to the quip once offered by Henry Kissinger, in a different context: “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
Business
Polymarket Bets on Paris Temperature Prompt Investigation After Unusual Spikes
Early in April, Ruben Hallali got an unusual alert on his phone: The evening temperature at Paris Charles de Gaulle International Airport had jumped about 6 degrees Fahrenheit in seconds.
Mr. Hallali, the chief executive of the weather risk company Sereno, had set up notifications for extreme weather swings. Then, nine days later, it happened again.
“It was an isolated jump, at one single station, early in the evening,” said Mr. Hallali, who added that he noticed another strange coincidence about the spikes: The timing was just right for somebody to reap a windfall on the betting site Polymarket.
He wasn’t the only one who sensed a problem. Météo-France, the country’s national meteorological service, filed a complaint last week with the police and local prosecutors, saying it had evidence that a weather sensor at Charles de Gaulle, the country’s largest airport, may have been tampered with.
The temperature swings, experts said, coincided with a period of unusual activity on Polymarket, one of the leading online prediction markets, which allow users to wager on the outcome of virtually anything.
One increasingly popular area is weather betting, where speculators can make real-time wagers on temperature readings, rainfall totals, the number of Atlantic hurricanes in a year and much more — with payouts in the thousands of dollars and higher.
As the stakes rise, so has the temptation to tamper with the instruments used to generate weather readings in hopes of engineering a lucrative outcome. Experts warn that this could have dangerous ripple effects, like degrading the information that underpins safe air travel.
Temperature data is used in a host of calculations at airports, helping determine correct takeoff distance, climb rate and whether crews need to apply frost treatment to planes. It’s crucial to airport safety, Mr. Hallali said.
“The Charles de Gaulle incident is not an isolated curiosity,” Mr. Hallali said. “It is what happens when financial incentives meet fragile data infrastructure.”
On April 6, the temperature reading at Charles de Gaulle jumped from 64 degrees Fahrenheit to 70 degrees at 7 p.m., before slowly falling over the next hour, according to data from Météo-France.
On April 15, the recorded temperature climbed even more sharply, from 61 degrees at 9 p.m. to 72 at 9:30 p.m., then dropping back to 61 a half-hour later.
In both instances, the spikes set the high temperature for the day, the metric on which some Polymarket wagers rest.
Laurent Becler, a spokesman for Météo-France, said the service contacted the police after noticing the discrepancies in temperature data. He declined to comment further on the case, saying it was under investigation.
Mr. Hallali said that after the first instance, experts and commenters on the French weather forum Infoclimat began to search answers. Theories were floated, including user error. But after the second spike, commenters zeroed in on the unusual Polymarket wagers, which totaled nearly $1.4 million over the two days, according to the company’s data.
The sums bet on April 6 and 15 were hundreds of thousands of dollars higher than on typical days this month.
It is not the first time that strange bets on prediction markets have raised accusations of insider trading.
On Thursday, a U.S. Army special forces soldier who helped capture President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela in January was charged with using classified information to bet on outcomes related to Venezuela, making more than $400,000 on Polymarket. Late last year, another trader on the site made roughly $300,000 betting on last-minute pardons from President Joseph R. Biden Jr. before he left office.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment. While the site used to tie some bets to temperature readings at Charles de Gaulle, this week, after Météo-France filed its complaint, the platform began using temperatures taken at another airport near the city, Paris-Le Bourget, according to recent bets on the site.
Representatives for Charles de Gaulle airport declined to comment beyond saying that the case was under investigation. The airport police also declined to comment. The Bobigny Public Prosecutor’s Office, which is handling the case, declined to answer questions about the investigation but said that no complaint had been filed against Polymarket.
As to how the instruments could have been tampered with, a number of theories have been offered online, including by use of a hair dryer or a lighter. Mr. Hallali said that the precision of the spike on April 15 suggested the use of a calibrated portable heating device, although he declined to speculate about what kind.
“Markets are expanding into every domain where an outcome can be observed, measured, and settled,” he said. “As these markets multiply, so does the surface area for manipulation.”
Business
California’s jet fuel stockpile hits two-year low as war strangles oil supplies
As the war in Iran strangles the flow of oil around the globe, California’s jet fuel reservoirs are running low.
The state — which refines much of its own fuel in El Segundo and elsewhere but still relies on crude oil imports — has seen its jet fuel stock decline by more than 25% from last year’s peak to a level not seen since 2023, according to data from the California Energy Commission.
The supply is shrinking as a global shortage is already affecting travelers’ summer plans with canceled flights and higher fares. It could even affect plans for people coming to Los Angeles for the 2026 World Cup, which starts in June, said Mike Duignan, a hospitality expert and professor at Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University.
“People don’t know exactly how this is going to escalate,” he said. “There’s a huge black cloud over the sea for the World Cup and the travel slump that we’re seeing is all linked to this oil shortage.”
As fuel supplies shrink, flight prices are rising. Airlines are adding baggage surcharges to cover fuel costs. Several routes leaving from smaller California hubs, including Sacramento and Burbank, have already been canceled.
Air Canada has suspended flights for this summer, cutting routes from JFK to Toronto and Montreal.
“Jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the Iran conflict, affecting some lower profitability routes and flights which now are no longer economically feasible,” the airline said in a statement last week.
Europe had just more than a month’s supply of jet fuel left last week, the International Energy Agency said. In an effort to cut costs, the German airline Lufthansa slashed 20,000 flights from its summer schedule this week.
Without a fresh oil supply flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation is unlikely to improve, experts said. The oil reserves countries and companies have in storage are helping fill shortfalls, but the squeezed supply chain could still wreak economic havoc.
“When there’s a shortage somewhere, everything is affected,” said Alan Fyall, an associate dean of the University of Central Florida Rosen College of Hospitality Management. “Airlines are being cautious, and I would say that is a very wise strategy at the moment.”
California’s jet fuel stock reached its lowest levels in two and a half years at 2.6 million barrels last week, down from a peak of more than 3.5 million barrels last year.
The California Energy Commission, which tracks fuel inventory, said the state’s current jet fuel stock is sill sufficient.
“Current production and inventory levels of jet fuel are within historical ranges,” a spokesperson said. “Although supply is tight, no structural deficit has emerged yet. The present tightness reflects short‑term global market stress. As long as refinery operations remain stable, California is positioned to meet regional jet fuel needs.”
Europe has been affected more directly because it relies on the Middle East for the vast majority of its crude oil and many refined products, experts said. California gets crude oil from the Middle East but also from Canada, Argentina and Guyana.
The state has the capacity to refine around 200,000 barrels of jet fuel per day, most of it from refineries in El Segundo and Richmond.
The amount of crude oil originating in the state has been declining since the early 2000s, as state regulations and drilling costs have led to more imports.
California has become particularly vulnerable to supply-chain shocks like the war in Iran, says Chevron, one of the companies that provides jet fuel in the state.
“The conflict in the Mideast Gulf has exposed the danger of California’s decision to offshore energy production,” said Ross Allen, a Chevron spokesperson. “Taxes, red tape and burdensome regulations cost the state nearly 18% of its refinery capacity in just the past year, and we urge policymakers to protect the remaining manufacturing capacity.”
In 2025, 61% of crude oil supply to California’s refineries came from foreign sources, according to the California Energy Commission. Around 23% came from inside the state, down from 35% five years ago.
The state’s refining capacity has also been declining, said Jesus David, senior vice president of Energy at IIR Energy. The West Coast region’s refining capacity has decreased from 2.9 million to 2.3 million barrels a day since 2019, he said.
“California’s had issues prior to the war,” David said. “Nothing new has been built over the past 30 years, and California has closed a lot of capacity.”
The result is higher prices for both gasoline and jet fuel in the state. Jet fuel at LAX costs close to $15 per gallon this week, compared with almost $10 at Denver International Airport and $11 at Newark International Airport.
Gasoline prices have also been hit hard by the global conflict. Average gas prices in California are close to $6 a gallon, around $2 higher than the national average.
The West Coast is a “fuel island” because it’s not connected by pipelines to the rest of the country, United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby said in an interview last month. That means oil and refined products have to be brought in by ships.
“Fuel price is more susceptible to supply weakness on the West Coast than anywhere else in the country,” Kirby said.
Some airlines might not survive the turmoil if oil prices don’t level out soon, he said. Spirit Airlines, a budget carrier based in Florida, is reportedly facing imminent liquidation if it isn’t bailed out by the Trump administration.
Business
Nike to Cut 1,400 Jobs as Part of Its Turnaround Plan
Nike is cutting about 1,400 jobs in its operations division, mostly from its technology department, the company said Thursday.
In a note to employees, Venkatesh Alagirisamy, the chief operating officer of Nike, said that management was nearly done reorganizing the business for its turnaround plan, and that the goal was to operate with “more speed, simplicity and precision.”
“This is not a new direction,” Mr. Alagirisamy told employees. “It is the next phase of the work already underway.”
Nike, the world’s largest sportswear company, is trying to recover after missteps led to a prolonged sales slump, in which the brand leaned into lifestyle products and away from performance shoes and apparel. Elliott Hill, the chief executive, has worked to realign the company around sports and speed up product development to create more breakthrough innovations.
In March, Nike told investors that it expected sales to fall this year, with growth in North America offset by poor performance in Asia, where the brand is struggling to rejuvenate sales in China. Executives said at the time that more volatility brought on by the war in the Middle East and rising oil prices might continue to affect its business.
The reorganization has involved cuts across many parts of the organization, including at its headquarters in Beaverton, Ore. Nike slashed some corporate staff last year and eliminated nearly 800 jobs at distribution centers in January.
“You never want to have to go through any sort of layoffs, but to re-center the company, we’re doing some of that,” Mr. Hill said in an interview earlier this year.
Mr. Alagirisamy told employees that Nike was reshaping its technology team and centering employees at its headquarters and a tech center in Bengaluru, India. The layoffs will affect workers across North America, Europe and Asia.
The cuts will also affect staffing in Nike’s factories for Air, the company’s proprietary cushioning system. Employees who work on the supply chain for raw materials will also experience changes as staff is integrated into footwear and apparel teams.
Nike’s Converse brand, which has struggled for years to revive sales, will move some of its engineering resources closer to the factories they support, the company said.
Mr. Alagirisamy said the moves were necessary to optimize Nike’s supply chain, deploy technology faster and bolster relationships with suppliers.
-
Movie Reviews12 minutes ago‘Michael’ Review: A Perfect Puzzle With Major Missing Pieces
-
World24 minutes agoMelissa McCarthy Hits on Mariska Hargitay as ‘Law & Order: SVU’ Guest Star: ‘I Know My Way Around a Pair of Handcuffs’
-
News30 minutes agoA New Worry for Republicans: Latino Catholics Offended by Trump
-
Politics36 minutes agoTariffs Raised Consumers’ Prices, but the Refunds Go Only to Businesses
-
Business42 minutes agoPolymarket Bets on Paris Temperature Prompt Investigation After Unusual Spikes
-
Science48 minutes agoCould an Earthly Fungus Contaminate Mars? NASA May Have Found One Hardy Enough.
-
Health54 minutes agoThis Is the Best Time To Eat Breakfast for Weight Loss After 50
-
Culture1 hour agoBook Review: ‘Make Believe: On Telling Stories to Children,’ by Mac Barnett