A blast of Siberian air and back-to-back winter storms will send subfreezing temperatures in the 20s across North Florida and bring a high chance of snow to the Florida Panhandle and a portion of the Big Bend and Jacksonville areas.

“The cold outbreak will occur right smack in the middle of what is historically the coldest part of the winter,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Larson said.

The first of two winter storms expected to impact the southeastern United States will bring showers and a possible thunderstorm to the Florida Panhandle starting late Friday night and continuing through Saturday, according to AccuWeather.

The second winter storm will be colder and snowier – even in Florida, which is the only contiguous U.S. state not to see snow this winter.

North Florida has a 50% chance of snow

The National Weather Service and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model are now in agreement as the chance of snow creeps to 50% in the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

The chance of snow diminishes eastward across the Sunshine State. Tallahassee has a slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10 a.m. on Tuesday and a possible mix of rain and snow later that night. The ECMRWF model puts those chances around 30-40%.

Jacksonville does not currently have a chance of snow, according to the NWS, but the ECMRWF model shows a sliver of a chance, between 10-20%.

How cold will it get in Florida?

Much of Florida will avoid the worst parts of the chill, according to AccuWeather. North Florida will see the coldest temperatures, but freezing temperatures will likely be felt even in Central Florida, too.

Here’s a look at temperatures in some of Florida’s regional hubs, according to AccuWeather’s Forecast:

• Pensacola
  • Sunday: High 54, low 25
  • Monday: High 43, low 28
  • Tuesday: High 39, low 21
  • Wednesday: High 41, low 29
• Tallahassee
  • Sunday: High 60, low 27
  • Monday: High 47, low 32
  • Tuesday: High 47, low 24
  • Wednesday: High 43, low 24
• Jacksonville
  • Sunday: High 67, low 35
  • Monday: High 47, low 39
  • Tuesday: High 48, low 31
  • Wednesday: High 45 low 35
• Orlando
  • Sunday: High 71, low 45
  • Monday: High 53, low 46
  • Tuesday: High 58, low 39
  • Wednesday: High 57, low 45
• Tampa
  • Sunday: High 73, low 47
  • Monday: High 58, low 45
  • Tuesday: High 57, low 39
  • Wednesday: High 54, low 42
• Miami
  • Sunday: High 81, low 65
  • Monday: High 70, low 66
  • Tuesday: High 74, low 61
  • Wednesday: High 66, low 63

Why is snow so rare in Florida?

The most basic answer is that subfreezing temperatures in Florida tend to be brought on by cold fronts, which generally produce dry air.

Florida’s best chance of seeing snow happens when a storm pulls in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico while cold air is being pushed from the north. Of course, if cold air is moving south, it’s likely pushing that moisture away from Florida, hence the conundrum.

The more complicated reason snow is rare in Florida is almost everything about Florida, from its geographical features to its proximity to the equator, discourages the conditions needed for snow.

Florida’s warm temperatures are the first problem. The second issue is that Florida, the Sunshine State, gets a lot of sunlight because of how close it is to the equator. That sunlight and warmer temperatures tend to keep sustained cold air at bay, preventing it from amassing in quantities for snow to form.

Florida is also a pretty flat state, and its highest point, Britton Hill, is only about 345 feet above sea level. That doesn’t give cold air a lot of places to hang out.

Lastly, there’s the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is a relatively warm body of water, and it acts as a large temperature moderator for Florida.

What’s needed for snow to form?

The conditions required to produce snow are typically generalized. Most people know that it needs to be at or below 32 degrees, which is considered the threshold for water to freeze. That’s not the only condition where snow can form, however.

Snow can still form even in temperatures as high as 33.8 degrees. There are occasions when a higher layer of atmosphere is slightly above freezing where the snowflake might start to melt as it passes through that layer but can still make it to the ground as snow.

Another special case is referred to as the “wet bulb” effect. The wet bulb temperature is the temperature air reaches when water evaporates into it. Snow can still manage to form if the height where the wet bulb temperature reaches freezing is less than 1,500 above the ground.

In both special circumstances, the snow will be wetter and stickier than traditional fluffy and dry snow.