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Bears, Bulls and Regulations Shape Crypto’s 2025 Aspirations | PYMNTS.com

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Bears, Bulls and Regulations Shape Crypto’s 2025 Aspirations | PYMNTS.com

The global cryptocurrency market is capitalized at over $3 trillion. Much of that value is concentrated at the top, among a few key digital tokens.

Bitcoin, as the first and most widely recognized cryptocurrency, plays a central role in the sector’s valuation, commanding a substantial share. At its highest, bitcoin’s market capitalization has approached $2 trillion, representing roughly two-thirds of the landscape’s overall market value.

Bitcoin topped $100,000 as 2024 came to a close, but has skidded down double digits from its peak of over $108,000 around two weeks ago.

This concentration of value at the top has implications for the overall market’s volatility, innovation and the evolution of altcoins, with bitcoin often setting the tone for broader market trends. It also raises questions about the future of crypto market dynamics as new technologies and use cases continue to emerge.

With the news that the Tether stablecoin’s (USDT) market cap fell more than 1% to $137.24 billion this week, the largest decline since the crash of the FTX exchange in November 2022, understanding the impact of regulations on the marketplace is becoming crucial for businesses looking to capture efficiencies and advantages from the use of tokens such as stablecoins.

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After all, USDT is supposed to maintain a stable, flat value of $1. As of reporting, the stablecoin is a smidge below that value, sitting at $0.9993. The decline comes after several European Union-based crypto exchanges removed USDT due to compliance issues with the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation that took full effect on Dec. 30 (the actual law around stablecoins kicked in six months ago).

Per the MiCA regulations, stablecoin issuers must hold an e-money license in at least one EU member state in order to operate across the 27-nation bloc. Tether, which has faced controversy throughout its history, has yet to apply for an e-money license.

Read more: What Was Crypto’s Biggest 2024 Story? Hint: It Wasn’t Named Elon

The Role of Institutional Adoption 

In 2025, the cryptocurrency market may find itself at a crossroads. If the bulls are right, the industry could see substantial growth, with more institutional investment, regulatory clarity and real-world use cases for cryptocurrencies. However, if the bears prevail, we may witness a volatile market, regulatory crackdowns and a continued struggle to overcome the technology’s shortcomings.

The bullish optimism surrounding institutional adoption is one of the strongest driving forces. In 2025, financial institutions, banks and even central banks are expected to play a significant role in legitimizing cryptocurrencies. Global financial giants are already eyeing blockchain for solutions like cross-border payments and settlement systems, providing liquidity for crypto markets and solidifying their utility in traditional finance.

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Stablecoins — digital currencies pegged to traditional assets like the U.S. dollar — are likely to become a common mode of transaction. With major players in FinTech, like PayPal and Visa, already integrating cryptocurrencies into their platforms and experimenting with stablecoins, real-world use cases could soon be as easy as tapping a credit card.

Read also: Why Banks Might Want to Have a Blockchain Strategy

The Bearish Argument: Volatility, Regulatory Shadows

Perhaps the biggest concern for crypto’s future is government regulation. The lack of clear rules around cryptocurrencies has been a major deterrent for mainstream adoption.

PYMNTS covered on Nov. 25 how cryptocurrencies, and more specifically their underlying blockchain technologies, have gone from a solution in search of a problem to a solution in hopes of some regulatory clarity. Of course, that clarity may come when cryptocurrency companies and other firms embrace and invest in, rather than resist, appropriate guardrails for their industries.

The dynamic situation at home in the U.S. has even led to people like venture capitalist Marc Andreessen arguing that banks are cutting ties with customers on the political right, or with industries such as the cryptocurrency sector.

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Writing about the issue earlier this month, PYMNTS argued that while Andreessen’s claims might resonate with the frustrations held by many corners of the cryptocurrency and FinTech sectors, the reality could be far more nuanced than a political assault on those industries.

“After all, innovation typically moves faster than regulation, and the growing strain between traditional banks and future-fit FinTech and crypto firms can also be in part chalked up to the inevitable consequence of outdated regulatory frameworks, stricter know your customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) standards, as well as heightened fraud risks,” that report said.

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The Last Frontier For Cryptocurrency Adoption

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The Last Frontier For Cryptocurrency Adoption

While studies reveal institutional investors and wealth managers believe tokenized ETFs will drive mainstream market adoption for cryptocurrency, there looms the theft of bad actors that most often go untraceable.

Barriers to the expansion of tokenization are starting to fall as major investment firms consider launching tokenized ETFs, according to new global research by London-based Nickel Digital Asset Management (Nickel), Europe’s leading digital assets hedge fund manager founded by alumni of Bankers Trust, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

Its study with institutional investors (pension funds, insurance asset managers and family offices) and wealth managers at organisations which collectively manage over $14 trillion in assets found almost all (97%) believe the potential launch of tokenized ETFs such as BlackRock’s will be important to the expansion of the sector with nearly one in three (32%) rating the development as very important.

The study also reflected the belief that tokenization will continue to grow, with nearly 70% of respondents believing that fund managers looking to tokenize investment funds and asset classes will increase over the next three years.

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Nickel’s research with firms in the US, UK, Germany, Switzerland, Singapore, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates found growing awareness of the benefits of tokenization. Private markets are seen as offering the greatest potential for tokenization, with almost 70% seeing private equity funds as the asset class with the most opportunity, followed by fixed income (55%) and public equities (42%).

Anatoly Crachilov, CEO and Founding Partner at Nickel Digital, said: “Tokenization is quickly moving from theory to real-world adoption as institutional investors grow more comfortable with its benefits and see major players enter the space. When firms like BlackRock step in, it fundamentally shifts the conversation. This development is timely for our multi-manager vehicle as expanding liquidity depth will allow some of our pods to start trading tokenized assets in the coming months.”

To address potential criminal threat, an advanced detection system to identify and trace blockchain funds connected with criminal activity was presented earlier this week at the Annual CyberASAP Demo Day in London.

The system, called SynapTrack, enables faster and more accurate detection of fraudulent activity using blockchains and cryptocurrencies, where traditional anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing systems struggle to keep pace.

Although current fraud detection methods pick up unusual activity, they deliver an extremely high rate (40%) of false positive reports. These require manual checking by compliance professionals, resulting in backlogs in identifying and acting on suspicious activity.

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The SynapTrack system is designed to deliver a substantially lower rate of false positives. It has already been tested using real-life data from the notorious 2025 Bybit hack, where criminals stole $1.5bn of digital tokens from a cryptocurrency exchange. SynapTrack traced the hacker with 98% accuracy.

The team behind SynapTrack is keen to hear from exchanges, financial regulators or law enforcement agencies who want to test the prototype in real-world conditions.

SynapTrack uses a validated methodology to score the likelihood of transactions being part of a money laundering scheme. It has a self-improving algorithm that continuously adapts to new tactics – dynamically identifying suspicious patterns in blockchain transactions. It has a universal cross-chain capability, and is designed around how compliance teams work, presenting results in a dashboard. No infrastructure changes are needed for installation.

It is relatively easy to obscure fraudulent or criminal activity by moving funds between blockchains, or dispersing them across many blockchains, in what are known as ‘cross-chain’ transactions. It is these transactions that pose the greatest difficulty for existing anti-money laundering systems.

SynapTrack was developed by University of Birmingham computer scientists Dr Pascal Berrang and PhD student Endong Liu, in collaboration with blockchain developer Nimiq. Dr Berrang’s research is in IT security and privacy on blockchain, artificial intelligence and machine learning. The subject of Endong Liu’s PhD is transaction tracing. Nimiq is supporting with blockchain-specific insights, knowledge of real-world constraints, and implementation.

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The team is currently fundraising to ensure regulatory readiness and complete the team with a CEO and software developers.

Dr Berrang said: “The last few years have seen a near-exponential growth in blockchain transactions. While many of these are legitimate, blockchains are attractive to criminals as funds can be moved very quickly to other jurisdictions. Our work with Nimiq and the creation of SynapTrack is addressing this black spot, and will enable more effective regulation, making the whole ecosystem of blockchain safer and more trustworthy.”

With the financial market and cybersecurity industry converging, cryptocurrency is here to stay.

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Bitcoin drops to $63,000 as U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran

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Bitcoin drops to ,000 as U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $65,000 before pulling back to $64,700 as the Iran conflict continued to escalate through Saturday.

Iranian state media reported at least 70 killed in its Hormozgan province, per Aljazeera, including a strike on an elementary school. Israel activated air raid alerts after detecting fresh missile launches from Iran.

Trump told the Washington Post that “all I want is freedom for the people.” NATO said it was “closely following” developments, China urged an immediate ceasefire, and Turkey offered to mediate.

Bitcoin’s inability to hold $65,000 on the bounce suggests sellers remain in control, but the relative stability given the severity of the headlines points to thin weekend order books rather than active selling pressure.

Headline risks persist for BTC traders as the U.S. day progresses.

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What happened earlier

Earlier in the day, BTC neared $63,000 in Saturday trading after the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, pushing the largest cryptocurrency down roughly 3% in a matter of hours and extending what had already been a difficult weekend for risk assets.
The move brought bitcoin to its lowest level since the Feb. 5 crash, when the token briefly dipped below $60,000.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared an immediate state of emergency across all areas of Israel. A U.S. official confirmed American participation in the strikes, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The sell-off follows a well-established pattern. Bitcoin trades 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, while equity and bond markets are closed on weekends.

That makes it one of the only large, liquid assets available for traders to sell when geopolitical risk spikes outside of traditional market hours.

The result is that bitcoin often acts as a pressure valve for broader risk-off sentiment during weekend events, absorbing selling that would otherwise spread across equities, commodities, and currencies if those markets were open.

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The attack risks a wider regional conflict in one of the most economically sensitive parts of the world, following a month-long U.S. military buildup and failed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

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Better Cryptocurrency to Buy With $5,000 and Hold Forever: XRP vs. Ethereum | The Motley Fool

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Better Cryptocurrency to Buy With ,000 and Hold Forever: XRP vs. Ethereum | The Motley Fool

Both Ethereum (ETH 6.03%) and XRP (XRP 3.76%) are tried-and-tested blockchains which have survived (and sometimes thrived) for years on end. That means they’re both sturdy enough to be candidates for a big investment, like $5,000, and for holding over the very long term, or even forever.

So which of these two leading coins is the better option for a forever hold?

Image source: Getty Images.

Ethereum has more ways to grow

Forever is a long time, especially for an investment in an emerging sector like crypto. Therefore, an asset’s optionality regarding where it can derive growth is a key factor, as today’s growth drivers might peter out and new ones are likely to emerge.

On that front, Ethereum has plenty of options. It already hosts a large decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem worth more than $53 billion today, powered by a massive stablecoin base of $159 billion. That existing base of capital is a strategic asset because it gives developers and financial institutions a reason to build new products right where liquidity already lives. It also gives investors exposure to many possible growth lanes at once, from the onboarding of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) to the development of new settlement rails for payments between AI agents.

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Ethereum Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-6.03%) $-123.58

Current Price

$1924.97

Another advantage is that Ethereum has a track record of consistently shipping large protocol upgrades. The Pectra upgrade, for example, landed on the mainnet in May 2025, followed by the Fusaka upgrade in December. Two similarly large feature packages are expected for 2026, and they should help to build the chain’s ability to scale up without spiking transaction costs.

If you plan to hold an asset indefinitely, this network’s culture of iterative improvement reduces the risk that its technical capabilities will become irrelevant as emerging opportunities for growth arise. Its habit of attracting and retaining substantial capital also helps prevent that outcome.

XRP has to keep winning specific fights over time

XRP is not a bad crypto asset by any means, but its long-term burden is its far narrower positioning than Ethereum.

Ripple, the coin’s issuer, built the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem as a toolkit of financial technologies to support specific workflows in institutional finance, especially cross-border payments and money transfers, and, more recently, the management of tokenized asset capital. The coin’s value is thus derived from the utility of its ledger.

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That focus could pay off if the financial companies the chain targets like what it’s offering, but it also concentrates risk. Financial institutions move cautiously, and winning them over is a slow, grinding process of catering to their needs and building strong relationships. Their technology adoption process can stall for years, even when the product works, and decision-makers broadly want to adopt the new tech.

To Ripple’s credit, the XRP Ledger includes plenty of features that match institutional requirements and seek to minimize their potential pain points. The network’s authorized trust lines, for instance, let tokenized asset issuers whitelist who can hold their issued tokens, which is a feature that supports regulatory constraints around who can legally custody an asset. Similarly, the ledger supports freezing tokens when suspicious activity appears, which is a control that traditional finance teams tend to expect in regulated asset workflows.

XRP Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-3.76%) $-0.05

Current Price

$1.35

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But holding a coin forever is unforgiving of sustained competitive pressure, which XRP doubtlessly faces. Its competitors include fintech companies and other cryptocurrencies, not to mention the internal tech development capabilities of many of its target users in big banks. So it’ll need to continuously one up the other players in its space if it’s going to grow over the long term, and it’s hard to believe that it’ll win every round that counts.

The verdict

The decision here is about resilience and resources.

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Ethereum’s “grizzled veteran” reputation today stems from surviving numerous shifts in user demand patterns while maintaining a large on-chain capital pool and growing it all the while. Its success or failure in any given crypto market segment is not guaranteed, nor was it in the past, but its constant evolution has ensured that failures are not fatal, and also that missed opportunities aren’t very damaging overall.

XRP, on the other hand, is only just starting to scale up its on-chain capital base; it has only $418 million in stablecoins. Furthermore, while it has succeeded in attracting some financial institutions to its chain, the truth is that its growth trajectory has not yet been seriously tested, and is still finding an appropriate product-market fit. Its real competitive challenges have only just begun.

So if you want a coin to buy with $5,000 and hold forever, pick the asset that can win without needing to be perfect: Ethereum. XRP is still a decent long-term hold, assuming it’s part of a diversified crypto portfolio, but it’s riskier.

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