Culture
Putting the NFC North’s dominance in context: Best division since realignment?
The NFL’s Thanksgiving schedule delivers three-fourths of what could become the most dominant division since the league realigned in 2002.
The 2024 NFC North is the first division since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to feature three teams with at least eight victories through Week 12, led by the 10-1 Detroit Lions, who have tied an all-time NFL mark for most victories in a season by at least 38 points (three, all outside the division).
With the Lions facing the division-rival Chicago Bears (4-7) in the early game Thursday before the 8-3 Green Bay Packers play the late game against the AFC East’s Miami Dolphins, the 2024 NFC North — which also includes the 9-2 Minnesota Vikings — stands apart. It could well decide who takes home the Lombardi Trophy.
The Lions (+260), Packers (+750) and Vikings (+850) are among the top seven in Super Bowl odds, per BetMGM, and the top four in odds to win the NFC, along with the Philadelphia Eagles (+325). The Lions remain Super Bowl favorites, comfortably ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs (+450), while the NFC North has the shortest odds to produce the champion at +175, half of the second-place AFC West (+350).
GO DEEPER
Jared Goff hit rock bottom. A conversation with Dan Campbell ignited his unlikely comeback
The chart below shows where all eight divisions have ranked each season since the league realigned in 2002 in point margin per game (X-axis) and win rate (Y-axis) in non-divisional games through the first 12 weeks of each season. The 2024 NFC North (red dot) ranks first among these 184 divisional seasons in average point margin (+9.5) and second in win rate (.765), per TruMedia.
Only the 2022 NFC East (26-7) had a better record than the 2024 NFC North (26-8) in non-division games through Week 12, but the current NFC North had a far better average point margin (+9.5 to +5.1) in these games.
Here’s what you need to know about where the NFC North stands and what it must do to become the most dominant division over a full season since realignment.
1. The NFC North is by far the most dominant division this season.
The scheduling rotation (which we’ll explore later) is part of the equation, but this level of dominance is extreme.
2024 non-divisional game scorecard
| Division | W-L | Point Margin |
|---|---|---|
|
NFC North |
26-8 (.765) |
+323 |
|
AFC West |
19-12 (.613) |
+74 |
|
AFC North |
17-16 (.515) |
+56 |
|
NFC West |
15-15 (.500) |
-33 |
|
NFC East |
15-16 (.484) |
-33 |
|
AFC East |
13-18 (.419) |
-38 |
|
NFC South |
10-18 (.357) |
-138 |
|
AFC South |
11-23 (.324) |
-211 |
AFC North teams lead the way in total victories over opponents who currently have winning records (11) and total non-divisional victories in these games (nine). The NFC North is second with eight and six.
Since 2002, the NFC North’s +323 point margin ranks first by 64 points over the runner-up 2013 NFC West (+259) through Week 12. That is larger than the difference between the 2013 NFC West and the sixth-ranked division in that span, the 2011 NFC North (+200). The table below shows the only divisions since 2002 with PPG margins greater than 7.0 through Week 12, led by the 2024 NFC North.
2002-24 non-division PPG margin (Wk 1-12)
| Division | W-L | PPG Margin |
|---|---|---|
|
2024 NFC North |
26-8 (.765) |
+9.5 |
|
2013 NFC West |
23-9 (.719) |
+8.1 |
|
2002 NFC South |
17-8-1 (.673) |
+7.3 |
|
2008 NFC South |
22-8 (.733) |
+7.2 |
|
2011 NFC North |
19-9 (.679) |
+7.1 |
|
2005 AFC West |
20-10 (.667) |
+7.1 |
2. Strong defense has been the key to the NFC North dominating its non-divisional schedule.
The 2024 NFC North ranks first among 184 divisions since 2002 in defensive EPA per play against non-division opponents, compared to a No. 69 ranking in offensive EPA per play.
| Non-Division Category | 2024 NFC North | Rank of 184 |
|---|---|---|
|
W-L |
26-8 (.765) |
2 |
|
PPG |
26.1 |
16 |
|
PPG allowed |
16.6 |
2 |
|
PPG differential |
+9.5 |
1 |
|
Score differential/play |
+4.86 |
1 |
|
OFF EPA/play |
+0.013 |
69 |
|
DEF EPA/play |
+0.148 |
1 |
All four NFC North teams rank among the NFL’s top 10 in defensive EPA per play across all games this season. They are all in the top five when isolating non-divisional games only. The Lions and Packers also rank among the top 10 on offense across all games and in non-division games.
GO DEEPER
Vikings, Packers coaches make the NFC North the NFL’s best division: Sando’s Pick Six
3. Dominating a weak AFC South accounts for 61 percent of the NFC North’s +323 point differential in non-division games.
NFC North teams are 8-0 with a +144 differential against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. They are 14-2 with a +197 differential against the full AFC South. Bad teams get blown out. The NFC North has played its share of them.
2024 NFC North non-division scorecard
Forty-five percent of the +323 differential in non-division games stems from facing the Jaguars and Titans, while 61 percent stems from facing the AFC South overall.
The six other divisions are a combined 9-9 against the AFC South, with a +14 differential. That includes a 6-7 mark with a +21 differential for AFC East teams.
4. The NFC North has a 6-4 record against non-divisional opponents who had winning records through Week 12. Here’s a full accounting.
The Bears are the only NFC North team without a victory over a team that currently has a winning record. They are 0-3 in those matchups, headlined by their defeat at Washington on a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary. The rest of the NFC North has a 6-1 record in those games, with three victories over Houston, two over Arizona and one over Seattle.
2024 NFC North vs. teams now above .500
| NFC North Team | Wk-Opp | Result | Point Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
|
3-HOU |
W, 34-7 |
+27 |
|
|
6-AZ |
W, 34-13 |
+21 |
|
|
4-SEA |
W, 42-29 |
+13 |
|
|
3-AZ |
W, 20-13 |
+7 |
|
|
10-HOU |
W, 26-23 |
+3 |
|
|
7-HOU |
W, 24-22 |
+2 |
|
|
8-WAS |
L, 18-15 |
-3 |
|
|
1-PHI |
L, 34-29 |
-5 |
|
|
2-HOU |
L, 19-13 |
-6 |
|
|
9-AZ |
L, 29-9 |
-20 |
The NFC North’s record would be 6-3 if we adjusted the parameters to feature non-divisional games against teams that had winning records at kickoff. Victories over Dallas, San Francisco and Tampa Bay would come into play.
5. NFC North teams play 10 more games against non-division opponents this season. Here’s what the division must do to become the most dominant since 2002.
The NFL pushes most division games later in the season for competitive reasons. That leaves only 10 remaining non-division games for the NFC North to build upon its dominance or fall in the rankings. Those games are listed below chronologically and with point spreads pulled together from various sources where available.
Remaining non-division opponents
| NFC North Team | Week | Point Spread |
|---|---|---|
|
13 |
-3.5 (vs. AZ) |
|
|
13 |
-3 (vs. MIA) |
|
|
14 |
+6.5 (at SF) |
|
|
14 |
-5.5 (vs. ATL) |
|
|
15 |
-2 (vs. BUF) |
|
|
15 |
-1 (at SEA) |
|
|
16 |
+2 (at SEA) |
|
|
16 |
-5 (vs. NO) |
|
|
17 |
+3.5 (at SEA) |
|
|
17 |
-5 (at SF) |
The 2013 NFC North holds the full-season record for PPG margin against non-divisional opponents since realignment (+359 in 40 games, for 8.975 per game). That division featured the 13-3 Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers (12-4), the Bruce Arians-coached Cardinals (10-6) and the 7-9 Rams.
NFC North teams must outscore their 10 remaining non-divisional opponents by 72 points to beat the 2013 NFC West for the best full-season differential since 2002. That would leave the division +395 in 44 games for a +8.977 PPG differential.
The best full-season record against non-divisional opponents since 2002 is shared by the 2013 NFC West and the 2007 NFC South at 30-10 (.750). The NFC North (currently .765 at 26-8) would equal that mark with a 7-3 finish against foes outside the division.
The best team in the NFC North (Detroit) will be at home for the division’s toughest remaining opponent (Buffalo). The Seahawks’ recent improvement on defense could complicate efforts for Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay to win at Seattle. The 49ers’ decline could help Chicago (Week 14) and Detroit (Week 17).
Green Bay and Minnesota can set the tone in Week 13. Both are favored at home against non-division opponents.
(Photo of Josh Jacobs, center, and three Lions defenders: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
The story of the greatest players in NFL history. In 100 riveting profiles, top football writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NFL in the process.
The story of the greatest players in NFL history.
Buy
Culture
6 Poems You Should Know by Heart
Literature
‘Prayer’ (1985) by Galway Kinnell
Whatever happens. Whatever
what is is is what
I want. Only that. But that.
“I typically say Kinnell’s words at the start of my day, as I’m pedaling a traffic-laden path to my office,” says Major Jackson, 57, the author of six books of poetry, including “Razzle Dazzle” (2023). “The poem encourages a calm acceptance of the day’s events but also wants us to embrace the misapprehension and oblivion of life, to avoid probing too deeply for answers to inscrutable questions. I admire what Kinnell does with only 14 words; the repetition of ‘what,’ ‘that’ and ‘is’ would seem to limit the poem’s sentiment but, paradoxically, the poem opens widely to contain all manner of human experience. The three ‘is’es in the middle line give it a symmetry that makes its message feel part of a natural order, and even more convincing. Thanks to the skillful punctuation, pauses and staccato rhythm, a tonal quality of interior reflection emerges. Much like a haiku, it continues after its last words, lingering like the last note played on a piano that slowly fades.”
“Just as I was entering young adulthood, probably slow to claim romantic feelings, a girlfriend copied out a poem by Pablo Neruda and slipped it into an envelope with red lipstick kisses all over it. In turn, I recited this poem. It took me the remainder of that winter to memorize its lines,” says Jackson. “The poem captures the pitch of longing that defines love at its most intense. The speaker in Shakespeare’s most famous sonnet believes the poem creates the beloved, ‘So long as men can breathe or eyes can see, / So long lives this, and this gives life to thee.’ (Sonnet 18). In Rilke’s expressive declarations of yearning, the beloved remains elusive. Wherever the speaker looks or travels, she marks his world by her absence. I find this deeply moving.”
“Clifton faced many obstacles, including cancer, a kidney transplant and the loss of her husband and two of her children. Through it all, she crafted a long career as a pre-eminent American poet,” says Jackson. “Her poem ‘won’t you celebrate with me’ is a war cry, an invitation to share in her victories against life’s persistent challenges. The poem is meaningful to all who have had to stare down death in a hospital or had to bereave the passing of close relations. But, even for those who have yet to mourn life’s vicissitudes, the poem is instructive in cultivating resilience and a persevering attitude. I keep coming back to the image of the speaker’s hands and the spirit of steadying oneself in the face of unspeakable storms. She asks in a perfectly attuned gorgeously metrical line, ‘what did i see to be except myself?’”
‘Sonnet 94’ (1609) by William Shakespeare
They that have power to hurt and will do none,
That do not do the thing they most do show,
Who, moving others, are themselves as stone,
Unmovèd, cold, and to temptation slow,
They rightly do inherit heaven’s graces
And husband nature’s riches from expense;
They are the lords and owners of their faces,
Others but stewards of their excellence.
The summer’s flower is to the summer sweet,
Though to itself it only live and die;
But if that flower with base infection meet,
The basest weed outbraves his dignity.
For sweetest things turn sourest by their deeds;
Lilies that fester smell far worse than weeds.
“It’s one of the moments of Western consciousness,” says Frederick Seidel, 90, the author of more than a dozen collections of poetry, including “So What” (2024). “Shakespeare knows and says what he knows.”
“It trombones magnificent, unbearable sorrow,” says Seidel.
“It’s smartass and bitter and bright,” says Seidel.
These interviews have been edited and condensed.
More in Literature
See the rest of the issue
Culture
Classic and Contemporary Literature From France, Japan, India, the U.K. and Brazil
Literature
FRANCE
According to the writer Leïla Slimani, 44, the author of ‘The Country of Others’ (2020).
Classic
‘Essais de Montaigne’ (‘Essays of Montaigne,’ 1580)
“France is a country of nuance with a love of conversation and freedom and an aversion to fanaticism. It’s also a country built on reflexive subjectivity. Montaigne reveals all that, writing, ‘I am myself the matter of my book.’”
Contemporary
‘La Carte et le Territoire’ (‘The Map and the Territory,’ 2010) by Michel Houellebecq
“Houellebecq describes France as a museum, where landscape turns into décor and where rural areas are emptying out. He shows the gap between the Parisian elite and the rest of the population, which he paints as aging and disoriented by modernity. It’s a melancholic and yet ironic novel about a disenchanted nation.”
JAPAN
According to the writer Yoko Ogawa, 64, the author of ‘The Memory Police’ (1994).
Classic
‘Man’yoshu’ (late eighth century)
“‘Man’yoshu,’ the oldest extant collection of Japanese poetry, reflects a diversity of voices — from emperors to commoners. They bow their heads to the majesty of nature, weep at the loss of loved ones and find pathos in death. The pages pulse with the vitality of successive generations.”
Contemporary
‘Tenohira no Shosetsu’ (‘Palm-of-the-Hand Stories,’ 1923-72) by Yasunari Kawabata
“The essence of Japanese literature might lie in brevity: waka [a classical 31-syllable poetry form], haiku and short stories. There’s a tradition of cherishing words that seem to well up from the depths of the heart, imbued with warmth. Kawabata, too, exudes more charm in his short stories — especially these very short ‘palm-of-the-hand’ stories — than in his full-length novels. Good and evil, beauty and ugliness, love and hate — everything is contained in these modest worlds.”
INDIA
According to Aatish Taseer, 45, a T contributing writer and the author of ‘Stranger to History: A Son’s Journey Through Islamic Lands’ (2009).
Classic
‘The Kumarasambhava’ (‘The Birth of Kumara,’ circa fifth century) by Kalidasa
“This is an epic poem by the greatest of the classical Sanskrit poets and dramatists. The gods are in a pickle. They’re being tormented by a monster, but Shiva, their natural protector, is deep in meditation and cannot be disturbed. Kama, the god of love, armed with his flower bow, is sent down from the heavens to waken Shiva. Never a wise idea! The great god, in his fury, opens his third eye and incinerates Kama. But then, paradoxically, the death of the god of love engenders one of the greatest love stories ever told. In the final canto, Shiva and his wife, the goddess Parvati, have the most electrifying sex for days on end — and, 15 centuries on, in our now censorious time, it still leaves one agog at the sensual wonder that was India.”
Contemporary
‘The Complex’ (2026) by Karan Mahajan
“This state-of-the-nation novel, which was published just last month, captures the squalor and malice of Indian family life. Delhi is both my and Mahajan’s hometown and, in this sprawling homage to India’s capital, we see it on the eve of the economic liberalization of the 1990s, as the old socialist city gives way to a megalopolis of ambition, greed and political cynicism.”
THE UNITED KINGDOM
According to the writer Tessa Hadley, 70, the author of ‘The London Train’ (2011).
Classic
‘Jane Eyre’ (1847) by Charlotte Brontë
“Written almost 200 years ago, it remains an insight into our collective soul — or at least its female part. Somewhere at the heart of us there’s a small girl in a wintry room, curled up in the window seat with a book, watching the lashing rain on the window glass: ‘There was no possibility of taking a walk that day. …’ Jane’s solemnity, her outraged sense of justice, her trials to come, the wild weather outside, her longing for something better, for love in her future: All this speaks, perhaps problematically, to something buried in the foundations of our idea of ourselves.”
Contemporary
‘All That Man Is’ (2016) by David Szalay
“Though he isn’t quite completely British (he’s part Canadian, part Hungarian), Szalay is brilliant at catching certain aspects of British men — aspects that haven’t been written about for a while, now updated for a new era. Funny, exquisitely observed and terrifying, this novel reminds us, too, how absolutely our fate and our identity as a nation belong with the rest of Europe.”
BRAZIL
According to the writer and critic Noemi Jaffe, 64, the author of ‘What Are the Blind Men Dreaming?’ (2016).
Classic
‘Memórias Póstumas de Brás Cubas’ (‘The Posthumous Memoirs of Brás Cubas,’ 1881) by Machado de Assis
“Not only is it experimental in style — very short chapters mixed with long ones; different points of view; narrated by a corpse; metalinguistic — but it also introduces an extremely ironic view of the rising bourgeoisie in Rio de Janeiro at the time, revealing the hypocrisy of slave owners, the falsehood of love affairs and the only true reason for all social relationships: convenience and personal interest. After almost 150 years, it’s still modern, both formally and, unfortunately, also in content.”
Contemporary
‘Onde Pastam os Minotauros’ (‘Where Minotaurs Graze,’ 2023) by Joca Reiners Terron
“The two main characters — Cão and Crente — along with some of their colleagues, plan to escape and set fire to the slaughterhouse where they work under exploitative conditions. The men develop sympathy for the animals they kill, and one of them becomes a sort of philosopher, revealing the sheer nonsense of existence and the injustices of society in the deepest parts of Brazil.”
These interviews have been edited and condensed.
More in Literature
See the rest of the issue
Culture
6 Myths That Endure
Literature
The Myth of Meeting Oneself
“This is evident in Virgil’s ‘Aeneid’ (circa 30-19 B.C.) when Aeneas witnesses his own heroic actions depicted in murals of the Trojan War in Juno’s temple, and again in Miguel de Cervantes’s ‘Don Quixote’ (1605-15) when Quixote enters a printer’s shop and finds a book that has been published with fake details about his quest even as he’s living it,” says Ben Okri, 67, the author of “The Famished Road” (1991) and “Madame Sosostris and the Festival for the Brokenhearted” (2025). “In both stories, individuals throw themselves into the world and think they encounter objects, personae, obstacles and antagonists, but what they actually encounter is themselves. In our time, where our actions meet us in the echo chamber of social media, the process is magnified and swifter. Now a deed doesn’t even have to take place for it to enter the realm of reality.”
The Myth of Utopia
“I’ve always had trouble with the idea of utopia, feeling it derives its energy more from what it wishes to dismantle than what it wishes to enact,” says the T writer at large Aatish Taseer, 45, the author of “Stranger to History: A Son’s Journey Through Islamic Lands” (2009). “Ram Rajya, or the mythical rule of the hero Ram in the Hindu epic ‘Ramayana’ (seventh century B.C.-third century A.D.), like all visions of perfection, contains a built-in violence.”
The Myth of Invisibility
“Invisibility bears power and powerlessness at the same time,” says Okri. “In ancient cultures, it was a gift of the gods. Jesus, for example, walks unrecognized among his disciples, and in Greek myths, Scandinavian legends and ancient African tales, heroes are gifted invisibility in the form of cloaks, sandals or spells. Modern works like the two ‘Invisible Man’ novels, by H.G. Wells (1897) and Ralph Ellison (1952), and the ‘Harry Potter’ novels (1997-2007) by J.K. Rowling reach back to those ideas. But today, people talk about visibility as the highest form of social agency, while invisibility can render a whole class, race, caste or gender unseen.”
The Myth of Steadiness vs. Speed
“‘The Tortoise and the Hare,’ one of Aesop’s fables (sixth century B.C.), doesn’t necessarily strike a younger person as promising — possibly it has a whiff of morality in it,” says Yiyun Li, 53, the author of “A Thousand Years of Good Prayers” (2005) and “Dear Friend, From My Life I Write to You in Your Life” (2017). “But the longer I live and work, the more I understand that it’s the tortoiseness in a person that carries one along, not the swiftness of the mind and body of the hare.”
The Myth of Magic
“Ancient magical tales like Homer’s ‘Odyssey’ (late eighth to early seventh century B.C.) were allegories of transformation, of secret teachings,” says Okri, “whereas modern forms of magic are narrative devices and tropes of storytelling that continue the child’s wonder of life. I think of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s ‘The Great Gatsby’ (1925), Gabriel García Márquez’s ‘One Hundred Years of Solitude’ (1967) and, again, the ‘Harry Potter’ books. The intuition of magic persists even in these atheistic and science-infested times, where nothing is to be believed if it can’t be subjected to analysis. This is perhaps because the ultimate magic confronts us every day in the mystery of consciousness. That we can see anything is magical; that we experience love is magical; and perhaps the most magical thing of all is the imagination’s unending power to alter the contents and coordinates of reality. It hides tenaciously in the act of reading, which is the most generative act of magic.”
The Myth of the Immortal Soul
“ ‘The soul is birthless and eternal, imperishable and timeless and is not destroyed when the body is destroyed,’ says Krishna in the ‘Bhagavad Gita’ (second century-first century B.C.). This belief in the immortality of the soul — what used to be called Pythagoreanism in ancient Greece — is still the most pervasive myth in India,” says Taseer, “and has more influence over behavior and how one lives one’s life than any other.”
These interviews have been edited and condensed.
More in Literature
See the rest of the issue
-
Detroit, MI2 hours agoFormer Piston shows Detroit what they’re missing as he dominates next to LeBron
-
San Francisco, CA2 hours agoEastbound I-80 closure in San Francisco snarls traffic, slows business
-
Videos2 hours agoCan Keir Starmer survive the latest Mandelson revelations? | BBC News
-
Dallas, TX2 hours agoPetar Musa’s Brace Not Enough as FC Dallas Draws LA Galaxy 2-2
-
Miami, FL2 hours agoMLS: Messi double helps Inter Miami slay Rapids in front of huge crowd
-
Boston, MA2 hours agoFrom across Boston they flock to play for Latin Academy boys’ tennis, a co-op of 29 schools – The Boston Globe
-
Denver, CO2 hours agoDale Kistler Obituary | The Denver Post
-
Seattle, WA2 hours agoWEST SEATTLE WEATHER: Warm day, but far below record