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Election immigration fight could upend Nevada’s economy from the desert to the Strip

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Election immigration fight could upend Nevada’s economy from the desert to the Strip


In the remote Nevada desert, the Baker Ranch couldn’t survive without immigrant guest workers who come every year from Mexico.

About 300 miles to the south In Las Vegas — increasingly a vacation playground for Americans from all political and socioeconomic backgrounds — immigrants are just as vital, keeping the 24-hour economy humming all day, every day.

Immigration has become a source of fear and frustration for voters in this presidential election — with possible outcomes that could take the United States down two dramatically different paths. But immigrants who have been in the country for decades say a nuanced issue has been drowned out by seemingly simpler solutions championed by both parties.

Nowhere are the complicated economic and social realities behind the searing-hot political divide on immigration more clear than in Nevada, a toss-up state that could decide an increasingly close election.

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Here are highlights from the AP’s report:

How immigration has shaped the presidential race

The influx of illegal border crossings long strained city and state resources even in Democratic strongholds across the country, even as encounters between immigrants and law enforcement officials have declined sharply in recent months. And yet, immigration has fueled job growth in ways that strengthen the economy and improve the federal government’s fiscal health.

Former President Donald Trump is championing hardline proposals that would force mass deportations, while Vice President Kamala Harris is calling for pathways to citizenship for millions of people in the country illegally. But Harris is also calling for increased funding for border security enforcement and strengthening existing Biden administration actions that tightened rules for immigrants to seek asylum in the U.S. when they arrive at the southern border.

“I think that our focus is completely directed into the border and not toward the people who are already here and have been here for many, many years,” said Erika Marquez, immigrant justice organizer for the advocacy group Make the Road Nevada.

Bipartisan support for guest workers — to a point

Both parties have called for expanding guest worker programs in agriculture.

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The Trump administration deemed guest farmworkers essential during the coronavirus pandemic, and the program’s participation rose while he was in office. But he also proposed a rule freezing farmworkers’ salaries for two years, loosening requirements for worker housing and restricting the transportation costs they could be reimbursed for.

The Biden administration wiped out those rules. Since then, more than 310,000 H-2A visas were issued in fiscal year 2023, compared to around 213,000 in fiscal year 2020, the last full one under Trump. But the Biden White House also imposed a series of new rules meant to better protect workers that have occasionally frustrated business owners like the Bakers.

“It is a hot potato and each side’s lobbing one at the other. And, in all honesty, both are to blame,” Janille Baker, who runs the ranch’s financial books, said of immigration. “There is going to come a point where it has to get taken care of. You can’t just keep using fearmongering and scaring people, and then being critical of the people who do or don’t want to do whatever jobs.”

A state economy powered by immigrants

In Nevada, nearly 19% of residents are foreign-born and 9% of the total workforce does not have U.S. legal status. If the state lost all of its workers in the country illegally, Labor Department figures suggest the direct job losses would be roughly as large as those from the 2008 financial crisis, which stalled tourism, triggered a wave of housing market foreclosures and cost the state about 9.3% of its jobs during the subsequent Great Recession.

“In our wonderful, 24-hour economy, we know that these hotels and casinos could not, should not, would not be able to open every day without immigrants,” said Peter Guzman, president and CEO of the Latin Chamber of Commerce in Nevada.

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And even rounding up people in the country illegally might not count those with temporary protected status, or the guest workers on Baker ranch, all of whom are authorized to be in the U.S.

Haydee Zetino, who scrubs lavish hotel suites at Harrah’s Casino on the famed Las Vegas strip, is an immigrant from El Salvador with only temporary protected status in the U.S. The 62-year-old saw Trump try to strip away many such protections during his first term and worries it could happen again if he wins — even as she can’t vote herself as a non-citizen.

“These people don’t have any conscience,” she said of mass deportation supporters. “They believe they can lift up the country, move the economy forward, but they don’t think of those at the bottom.”

A small state that could be a big factor on Election Day

The Pew Research Center estimates that 11 million people in the country illegally live in the U.S. Big states like California, Texas and Florida have larger numbers who potentially could have even more influence on workforces and communities. But all of those states are all solidly red or blue in presidential races — and aren’t likely to sway the election as toss-up Nevada might.

Despite having just six electoral votes, Nevada could go for either Trump or Harris. Clark County, encompassing Las Vegas, is about 75% of the state’s population and includes a sizeable number of hospitality industry workers represented by Nevada’s powerful Culinary Union, which has endorsed Harris.

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But Trump was able to turn out infrequent voters there in 2020, and did well in much of the rest of the state, which is rural and more conservative. Washoe County, home to Reno, is a perennial toss-up. Voters can also choose “None” of the presidential candidates, adding to the Nevada electorate’s famously fickle nature.

It’s all left some voters afraid of what the outcome might be.

“There’s a lot of fear,” said Nancy Valenzuela, a 48-year-old maid who works at the Strat casino. “There are people who don’t have papers. They’re like, ‘They want to throw us all out.’”



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Earthquake swarm rattles central Nevada near Tonopah along newly identified fault

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Earthquake swarm rattles central Nevada near Tonopah along newly identified fault


A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling a remote stretch of central Nevada near Tonopah, including a magnitude 4.0 quake that hit near Warm Springs Tuesday morning.

Seismologists said the activity is typical for Nevada, where clusters of earthquakes can flare up in a concentrated area. “This is a very Nevada-style earthquake sequence. We have these a lot where we just see an uptick in activity in a certain spot,” said Christie Rowe, director of the Nevada Seismological Lab.

The latest magnitude 4.0 quake struck east of Tonopah near Warm Springs. The largest earthquake in the swarm so far has measured a 4.2.

What has stood out to researchers is the fault involved. Rowe said the earthquakes are occurring along a fault stretching along the southern edge of the Monitor and Antelope ranges — and that it was previously unknown to scientists. “We didn’t know this fault was there. It’s a new fault to us — not to the Earth, obviously — but it was previously unknown,” Rowe said.

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For now, the earthquakes have remained moderate. Rowe said the lab would not deploy additional temporary sensors unless activity increases to around a magnitude 5 or greater.

Seismologists said they are continuing to watch the swarm closely as Nevada works to bring the ShakeAlert early warning system to the state. The program, already active in neighboring states, can send cellphone alerts seconds before shaking arrives. “For me, it’s a really high priority. That distance to the faults gives us enough time to warn people — and that can make a big difference in reducing injuries and damage,” Rowe said.

Seismologists encouraged anyone who feels shaking to report it through the U.S. Geological Survey’s “Did You Feel It” system, saying even small quakes can help scientists better understand Nevada’s seismic activity.

Experts said the swarm is worth monitoring but is not cause for alarm. They noted that earthquakes like the 5.8 that hit near Yerington in December 2024 typically happen in Nevada about every eight to 10 years, and said they will continue monitoring the current activity closely.



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Kalshi Enforcement Action Belongs in Nevada Court, Judge Says

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Kalshi Enforcement Action Belongs in Nevada Court, Judge Says


Nevada state court is the proper venue for reviewing whether KalshiEX LLC is improperly accepting sports wagers without a license, a federal district court said.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board showed that the state statutes under which it seeks relief don’t require interpreting federal law, Judge Miranda M. Du of the US District Court for the District of Nevada said in a Monday order. The board’s action is now remanded to the First Judicial District Court in Carson City, Nev., the order said.

The board in 2025 urged Kalshi, a financial services company, to get a gaming license, but the …



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EDITORIAL: Nevada still vulnerable as tourist downturn continues

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EDITORIAL: Nevada still vulnerable as tourist downturn continues


Strip gaming executives can put their best spin on the numbers, but local tourism indicators remain a major concern. Casino operators seeking to draw more people through the door still have much work to do.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board released January gaming numbers Friday. The news was underwhelming. The state gaming win was down 6.6 percent from a year earlier. The Strip took the largest hit, an 11 percent drop. But the gloomy returns were spread throughout Clark County: Downtown Las Vegas was off 5.2 percent, Laughlin suffered a 3.3 percent decline and the Boulder Strip dipped by 7 percent.

For the current fiscal year, gaming tax collections are up a paltry
2.1 percent, below budget projections.

The red flags include more than gaming numbers. Recently released figures for 2025 reveal that visitation to Las Vegas fell nearly 8 percent from 2024, which represented the lowest total since the pandemic in 2021. Traffic at Reid International Airport fell more than 10 percent in December and was down 6 percent for the year. Strip occupancy rates fell 3 percent in 2025.

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To be fair, this is not just a Las Vegas problem. International travel to the United States was down
4.8 percent in January, Forbes reported, the ninth straight month of decline. Travel from Europe fell 5.2 percent, and passenger counts from Asia fell 7.5 percent. Canadian tourism cratered by 22 percent.

No doubt that President Donald Trump’s blustery rhetoric has played a role in the decline, but there’s more at work. International tourism has been largely flat since Barack Obama’s last few years in office. But domestic travel has held relatively steady although it is “starting to cool,” according to the U.S. Travel Association. Las Vegas hasn’t been helped by high-profile complaints last year about exorbitant Strip prices for parking, bottled water and other staples. Casino operators responded by offering discounts, particularly for locals, and they’ll need to continue those policies into 2026.

The tourism downturn has ramifications for the state budget, which relies primarily on sales and gaming tax revenues to support spending plans. “Nevada’s employment and economic challenges reflect deep structural factors that extend beyond cyclical economic fluctuations,” noted a recent report by economic analyst John Restrepo. “The state’s extreme concentration in tourism and gaming creates unique vulnerabilities.”

The irony is that state and local politicians have been talking for the past half century about “diversifying” the state economy. In recent years, that effort has primarily consisted of handing out millions in tax breaks and other incentives to attract businesses to the state. A dispassionate observer might ask whether that approach has brought an adequate return on investment.

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