ACC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 6 Miami is back from its open week on the road against Louisville in college football’s Week 8 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.
Miami is one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams this week, scoring over 38 points in each game and ranking 1st nationally in both scoring offense and average passing yardage.
Louisville was ranked before losing 2 straight games, at Notre Dame and at home against SMU, falling to 2-1 in ACC play, but rebounded last week with a 4 point victory against Virginia.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
So far, the simulations give a slight edge to the visiting team to stay perfect.
Miami is projected to win the game outright in the majority 55.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.
That leaves Louisville as the expected winner in the remaining 44.6 percent of sims.
In total, the Hurricanes came out ahead in 11,080 of the index’s simulations for the game, while the Cardinals won out in the other 8,920 predictions.
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The index also projects a close result on the scoreboard.
Miami is projected to be just 2.1 points better than Louisville on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Hurricanes to cover the spread.
That’s because Miami is a 4.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the game.
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And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -200 and for Louisville at +170 to win outright.
A plurality of bettors expect the Hurricanes will take care of the Cardinals on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
About 60 percent of bets project Miami will beat Louisville and cover the spread.
And the other 40 percent of wagers expect the Cardinals will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the narrow line.
Miami is first among ACC teams with a 72 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.
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The index suggests the Hurricanes are 17.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, ranking No. 10 nationally.
That model gives Louisville a win total prediction of 7.8 games and lists the team as fifth in the ACC with a 7.9 percent shot at the playoff.
FPI forecasts the Cardinals will be 14.1 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for 16th nationally.
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
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Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
First-place votes in parentheses
Texas (56)
Oregon (6)
Penn State
Ohio State
Georgia
Miami
Alabama
LSU
Iowa State
Clemson
Tennessee
Notre Dame
BYU
Texas A&M
Boise State
Indiana
Kansas State
Ole Miss
Missouri
Pittsburgh
SMU
Illinois
Army
Michigan
Navy
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams
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ORLANDO, Fla. — Lionel Messi scored twice in a four-goal second half, defender Telasco Segovia added a goal and two assists and defending champion Inter Miami CF rallied to beat Orlando City SC 4-2 on Sunday night, winning for the first time at Inter&Co Stadium.
Messi took a pass from Segovia and scored in the 57th minute to tie it 2-2, and Segovia scored unassisted in the 85th for the lead. Messi put the finishing touch on the victory when he scored off a free kick in the 90th.
“The victory belongs exclusively to the players,” Miami coach Javier Mascherano said after the game. “In the second half, they were a championship team. There were no tactics, nothing like that. There was heart, courage, possession, resilience, commitment. I think the team came out because they were champions last year.
“In the end, the players showed it. This victory is theirs.”
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Messi’s first two goals of the season give him 52 in his first 55 regular-season MLS matches — 51 of them in his past 49 appearances. It also brought the reigning MLS MVP to 898 career goals scored, including 672 for Barcelona and 115 for Argentina.
“He’s the best player to ever play this sport. He’s a leader, and as a leader, he inspires others, but he also often needs to be inspired himself,” Mascherano said of Messi. “When he was driving forward, he had more attacking options, and with so many opportunities, he clearly has the ability to create chances like no one else, and that’s what allowed us to turn the game around.”
Marco Pašalić took a pass from Iván Angulo and scored in the 18th minute to give Orlando City a 1-0 lead. Pašalić has scored in four straight matches against Inter Miami.
Inter Miami players celebrate after scoring a goal against Orlando City in MLS.
Defender Griffin Dorsey set up Martín Ojeda for a goal six minutes later for a 2-0 advantage that stood through halftime.
Inter Miami cut it to 2-1 four minutes into the second half on Mateo Silvetti’s first career goal. Defenders Segovia and Facundo Mura had assists as the 20-year-old forward found the net in his fifth career appearance.
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Segovia had eight goals and six assists as a rookie last season, while Mura collected his first assist in his first season.
Dayne St. Clair, the reigning goalkeeper of the year, turned away three shots — all in the second half of his second start with Inter Miami, but let in a soft goal for Orlando’s first.
Maxime Crépeau had four saves in his second start for Orlando City.
Teenager Colin Guske, 19, will miss Orlando City’s next match after the rookie picked up two yellow cards in his first start — the second one led to his exit in the 88th minute.
Inter Miami, which had never won in its previous nine trips to Orlando, was coming off a 3-0 road loss to LAFC.
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Orlando City swept Inter Miami during the regular season last year and leads the all-time series 8-7-4.
Inter Miami plays D.C. United on Saturday at Audi Field. Orlando City is also on the road with a match against New York City FC.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this recap.
Rain floods Miami Beach streets, cut short Miami Heat Family Festival
MIAMI BEACH, Fla. — Much-needed rain fell across South Florida on Sunday, but the downpour quickly led to flooding and traffic headaches.
“The drainage systems aren’t the best but in ten minutes it will be gone,” one person said.
The rain lasted longer than 10 minutes, flooding several spots along Collins Avenue in Miami Beach.
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In one neighborhood, at least a foot of water blocked the entrance. Drivers who attempted to pass through sent waves crashing onto nearby sidewalks.
The heavy rain also snarled traffic on parts of Interstate 95 and on the bridges to and from Miami Beach, slowing drivers trying to get around the area.
“It’s Miami for you. What do they call it, a sun shower?” one driver said.
The weather disrupted Sunday plans for many. The 26th annual Miami Heat Family Festival was cut short after strong winds swept through Dan Paul Plaza, knocking over several tents.
There is no word yet on how or when the Miami Heat plan to make up the family festival.
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Brett Knese
Brett Knese joined the Local 10 News team as a general assignment reporter in March 2025.
Jack and Jill of America’s Miami chapter closed out Black History Month with an inaugural “Roots Across Waters” trip to Nassau, where families explored ancestral sites, honored the Bahamian labor that helped build early Miami, and donated Afro‑Caribbean children’s books to local students.
