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Tester’s Senate Fate Could Make or Break a Harris Presidency

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Tester’s Senate Fate Could Make or Break a Harris Presidency

On the day Barack Obama took over the White House on Jan. 20, 2009, six of his cabinet nominees were immediately confirmed by the Senate. He signed his first piece of legislation — a major bill guaranteeing equal pay for women — into law just nine days later.

Should Vice President Kamala Harris win the presidency, she could not count on such cooperation from the chamber where she, like Mr. Obama, once served. Mr. Obama benefited from a big Democratic majority in the Senate. But Democrats are in control now by only the slimmest of margins, and their chances of keeping that majority most likely hang on the fate of Senator Jon Tester of Montana, who is currently trailing in his re-election race in his solidly red state.

If he should lose and Democrats fail to score any upsets in a handful of races they are not favored to win, Republicans would take over the Senate, putting Ms. Harris at loggerheads from the start with a newly empowered G.O.P. bent on stymying her at every turn.

“It is night and day,” Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, said about the difference between his party hanging on and Republicans winning the Senate. “It’s loss of control, putting the agenda very much in peril.”

At the moment, most analysts lean toward Republicans capturing the Senate, given a political map that was stacked against Democrats from the start and has only gotten tougher for them. The G.O.P. is all but certain to win the West Virginia seat being vacated by Senator Joe Manchin III. And Mr. Tester is lagging in a state expected to vote overwhelmingly for former President Donald J. Trump.

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The swing of those two seats alone would be enough to knock Democrats out of their 51-to-49 majority and fundamentally alter the governing landscape if they cannot secure an upset win elsewhere. Polls show that other Democratic incumbents in battleground states, including Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jacky Rosen in Nevada, continue to run ahead of their Republican opponents.

The prospect of a new Democratic president and a Republican Senate is a rare scenario. The winner of the White House historically has had coattails that brought Congress into line — at least at the start. Presidents of both parties elected in recent decades have consistently been sworn in with their allies controlling both the House and the Senate. Not since Grover Cleveland in 1884 has a Democrat been elected to a first presidential term with a Republican Senate.

The potential for winning the White House and losing the Senate is a chief reason that Democrats are so determined to re-elect Mr. Tester, promising to stick with him to the finish whatever the polls say. Democrats say they have confidence that Mr. Tester can pull out a victory.

“There’s no world that you can conceive of that I’m not going to be in Montana until the end,” Senator Gary Peters, Democrat of Michigan and the chairman of the party’s Senate campaign operation, said during a recent speech at the National Press Club. “Jon Tester will have everything he needs to win.”

Yet Democrats are also beginning to allocate resources to the Republican-dominated states of Texas and Florida, where Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott have shown some weakness, as alternative paths to a Senate majority should Mr. Tester be unable to prevail. And in a surprise, Dan Osborn, an independent, is mounting a strong bid against Senator Deb Fischer, a Republican, in Nebraska. An upset there could deny Republicans a majority.

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The stakes are enormous, particularly since the old notion of a honeymoon for a newly elected president is out the window. These days, many voters from the losing party expect their representatives to put up a fight, not rally around the winner.

Should they lose their Senate majority, Democrats would give up their all-important committee chairmanships. With Republicans in control, Ms. Harris would have to think about her cabinet choices in an entirely different way. The idea that presidents are entitled to their chosen nominees is a quaint one these days, and any picks would have to pass intense G.O.P. scrutiny.

Instead of making selections that could pass muster with a Democratic majority, Ms. Harris would need to choose candidates who could appeal to enough Republicans to win confirmation should they even clear committee and reach the floor for a vote. There would be no flurry of approvals on her first day in office.

“Obviously we would be in a position to negotiate nominations from everything from the Supreme Court to the Department of Homeland Security and everything in between,” said Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas and one of the men vying to replace Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky as party leader beginning in 2025. “It will be a different role.”

Mr. Cornyn also noted that a Republican Senate would be able to block Democrats from gutting the filibuster to pass new nationwide protections for abortion rights, a move that Ms. Harris has said she would support.

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Things could get even more difficult when it comes to lifetime appointments to the federal courts. Democrats have so far placed 213 judges on the bench during the Biden administration. Republicans would want to slow that momentum and screen Ms. Harris’s choices extremely carefully after the confirmations of scores of judges they opposed.

As for the Supreme Court, it is not certain that a Democratic president could even get a nominee through a Republican-controlled Senate should a vacancy occur. At minimum, any Supreme Court nominee would need to be much more centrist than the person a Democratic president might select if her own party held the Senate majority.

“Particularly with the judiciary, because we have the power of confirmation, I think they’re going to have to think long and hard about who they submit and whether or not they think they could get them cleared through the Senate,” said Senator John Thune, Republican of South Dakota and another candidate for party leader. “But that’s a bridge we’ll cross if and when we come to it. Certainly we’re hoping we have all the reins of power next year.”

Depending on the final Senate margin, having Ms. Harris in the White House and the G.O.P. controlling the Senate could empower the dwindling band of more moderate Republicans like Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who might team up with Democrats on select issues and be persuaded to back some Democratic nominees. They would still have to find ways to force legislation to the floor and overcome the 60-vote filibuster.

Of course, a Democratic White House and a Republican Senate is just one possible scenario from the election, and nothing is locked in at this point. But a Trump presidency and a Democratic Senate seems a far more unlikely outcome while both parties still have a chance at securing the coveted trifecta of controlling the House, the Senate and the White House.

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Under virtually any predicted outcome of the voting in November, the partisan margins in both the House and the Senate are going to be tight as they have been the past two years, making legislating precarious.

Democrats say they have shown they can make progress in a divided Congress by striking spending and legislative deals with Republicans while advancing executive branch and judicial nominees. They would relish a chance to do so again — but they would need to hang on in the Senate.

“Over the last four years,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, “we have shown what can get done with a Democratic president and a Democratic majority in the Senate.”

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Immigrant whose skull was broken in 8 places during ICE arrest says beating was unprovoked

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Immigrant whose skull was broken in 8 places during ICE arrest says beating was unprovoked

Alberto Castañeda Mondragón poses for a portrait at an apartment on Feb. 4, 2026, in St. Paul, Minn.

Mark Vancleave/AP


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Mark Vancleave/AP

MINNEAPOLIS — Alberto Castañeda Mondragón says his memory was so jumbled after a beating by immigration officers that he initially could not remember he had a daughter and still struggles to recall treasured moments like the night he taught her to dance.

But the violence he endured last month in Minnesota while being detained is seared into his battered brain.

He remembers Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents pulling him from a friend’s car on Jan. 8 outside a St. Paul shopping center and throwing him to the ground, handcuffing him, then punching him and striking his head with a steel baton. He remembers being dragged into an SUV and taken to a detention facility, where he said he was beaten again.

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He also remembers the emergency room and the intense pain from eight skull fractures and five life-threatening brain hemorrhages.

“They started beating me right away when they arrested me,” the Mexican immigrant recounted this week to The Associated Press, which recently reported on how his case contributed to mounting friction between federal immigration agents and a Minneapolis hospital.

Castañeda Mondragón, 31, is one of an unknown number of immigration detainees who, despite avoiding deportation during the Trump administration’s enforcement crackdown, have been left with lasting injuries following violent encounters with ICE officers. His case is one of the excessive-force claims the federal government has thus far declined to investigate.

He was hurt so badly he was disoriented for days at Hennepin County Medical Center, where ICE officers constantly watched over him.

Officers claimed he ran headfirst into a wall

The officers told nurses Castañeda Mondragón “purposefully ran headfirst into a brick wall,” an account his caregivers immediately doubted. A CT scan showed fractures to the front, back and both sides of his skull — injuries a doctor told AP were inconsistent with a fall.

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“There was never a wall,” Castañeda Mondragón said in Spanish, recalling ICE officers striking him with the same metal rod used to break the windows of the vehicle he was in. He later identified it as an ASP, a telescoping baton routinely carried by law enforcement.

Training materials and police use-of-force policies across the U.S. say such a baton can be used to hit the arms, legs and body. But striking the head, neck or spine is considered potentially deadly force.

“The only time a person can be struck in the head with any baton is when the person presents the same threat that would permit the use of a firearm — a lethal threat to the officer or others,” said Joe Key, a former Baltimore police lieutenant and use-of-force expert who testifies in defense of police.

Once he was taken to an ICE holding facility at Ft. Snelling in suburban Minneapolis, Castañeda Mondragón said officers resumed beating him. Recognizing that he was seriously hurt, he said, he pleaded with them to stop but they just “laughed at me and hit me again.”

“They were very racist people,” he said. “No one insulted them, neither me nor the other person they detained me with. It was their character, their racism toward us, for being immigrants.”

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The Department of Homeland Security, which includes ICE, did not respond to repeated requests for comment over the last two weeks on Castañeda Mondragón’s injuries.

It is unclear whether his arrest was captured on body-camera footage or if there might be additional recordings from security cameras at the detention center.

In a recent bid to boost transparency, DHS announced a broad rollout of body cameras for immigration officers in Minneapolis as the government also draws down ICE’s presence there.

ICE deportation officer William J. Robinson did not say how Castañeda Mondragón’s skull was smashed in a Jan. 20 declaration filed in federal court. During the intake process, it was determined he “had a head injury that required emergency medical treatment,” he wrote in the filing.

The declaration also stated that Castañeda Mondragón entered the U.S. legally in March 2022, and that the agency determined only after his arrest that he had overstayed his visa. A federal judge later ruled his arrest had been unlawful and ordered him released from ICE custody.

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Video shows him stumbling during arrest

A video posted to social media captured the moments immediately after Castañeda Mondragón’s arrest as four masked men walk him handcuffed through a parking lot. The video shows him unsteady and stumbling, held up by ICE officers.

“Don’t resist,” shouts the woman who is recording. “Cause they ain’t gonna do nothing but bang you up some more.”

“Hope they don’t kill you,” she adds.

“And y’all gave the man a concussion,” a male bystander shouts.

The witness who posted the video declined to speak with AP or provide consent for the video’s publication, but Castañeda Mondragón confirmed he is the handcuffed man seen in the recording.

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At least one ICE officer later told staff at the medical center that Castañeda Mondragón “got his (expletive) rocked,” according to court documents filed by a lawyer seeking his release and nurses who spoke with AP.

AP interviewed a doctor and five nurses about Castañeda Mondragón’s treatment at HCMC and the presence of ICE officers inside the hospital. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss patient care and feared retaliation. AP also consulted an outside physician, who affirmed the injuries were inconsistent with an accidental fall or running into a wall.

Minnesota state law requires health professionals to report to law enforcement any wounds that could have been perpetrated as part of a crime.

An HCMC spokeswoman declined to say this week whether anyone at the facility had done so. However, following the Jan. 31 publication of AP’s initial story about Castañeda Mondragón’s arrest, hospital administrators opened an internal inquiry seeking to determine which staff members have spoken to the media, according to internal communications viewed by AP.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz posted a link to AP’s prior story about Castañeda Mondragón, but his office has not said whether state authorities would pursue answers.

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“Law enforcement cannot be lawless,” Walz wrote in the post on X. “Thousands of aggressive, untrained agents of the federal government continue to injure and terrorize Minnesotans. This must end.”

Castañeda Mondragón’s arrest came a day after the first of two fatal shootings of U.S. citizens in Minneapolis by immigration officers, triggering widespread public protests.

Elected officials call for accountability

Minnesota congressional leaders and other elected officials, including St. Paul Mayor Kaohly Her, called this week for an investigation of Castañeda Mondragón’s injuries.

The Ramsey County Attorney’s Office, which oversees St. Paul, urged Castañeda Mondragón to file a police report to prompt an investigation. He said he plans to file a complaint. A St. Paul police spokesperson said the department would investigate “all alleged crimes that are reported to us.”

While the Trump administration insists ICE limits its operations to immigrants with violent rap sheets, Castañeda Mondragón has no criminal record.

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“We are seeing a repeated pattern of Trump Administration officials attempting to lie and gaslight the American people when it comes to the cruelty of this ICE operation in Minnesota,” Sen. Tina Smith, a Minnesota Democrat, said in a statement.

Rep. Kelly Morrison, another Democrat and a doctor, recently toured the Whipple Building, the ICE facility at Ft. Snelling. She said she saw severe overcrowding, unsanitary conditions and an almost complete lack of medical care.

“If any one of our police officers did this, you know what just happened in Minnesota with George Floyd, we hold them accountable,” said Democratic Rep. Betty McCollum, whose district includes St. Paul.

A native of Veracruz, Mexico, Castañeda Mondragón came to Minnesota nearly four years ago on a temporary work visa and found jobs as a driver and roofer. He uses his earnings to support his elderly father, who is disabled and diabetic, and his 10-year-old daughter.

On the day of his arrest, he was running errands with a friend when they suddenly found themselves surrounded by ICE agents. They began breaking the windows and opening the doors of the vehicle. He said the first person who hit him “got ugly with me for being Mexican” and not having documents showing his immigration status.

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About four hours after his arrest, court records show, Castañeda Mondragón was taken to an emergency room in the suburb of Edina with swelling and bruising around his right eye and bleeding. He was then transferred to the Minneapolis medical center, where he told staff he had been “dragged and mistreated by federal agents,” before his condition deteriorated, court records show.

A week into his hospitalization, caregivers described him as minimally responsive. As his condition slowly improved, hospital staff handed him his cellphone, and he spoke with his child in Mexico, whom he could not remember.

“I am your daughter,” she told him. “You left when I was 6 years old.”

His head injuries erased past experiences that for his daughter are unforgettable, including birthday parties and the day he left for the U.S. She’s been trying to revive his memory in daily calls.

“When I turned 5, you taught me how to dance for the first time,” she reminded him recently.

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“All these moments, really, for me, have been forgotten,″ he said.

He showed gradual improvement and, to the surprise of some who treated him, was released from the hospital on Jan. 27.

Long recovery lies ahead

He faces a long recovery and an uncertain future. Questions loom about whether he will be able to continue to support his family back in Mexico. “My family depends on me,” he said.

Though his bruises have faded, the effects of his traumatic brain injuries linger. In addition to the problems with his memory, he also has issues with balance and coordination that could prove debilitating for a man whose work requires going up and down ladders. He said he is unable to bathe himself without help.

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“I can’t get on a roof now,” he said.

Castañeda Mondragón, who does not have health insurance, said doctors have told him he needs ongoing care. Unable to earn a living, he is relying on support from co-workers and members of the Minneapolis-St. Paul community who are raising money to help provide food, housing and medical care. He has launched a GoFundMe.

Still, he hopes to stay in the U.S. and to provide again someday for his loved ones. He differentiates between people in Minnesota, where he said he has felt welcome, and the federal officers who beat him.

“It’s immense luck to have survived, to be able to be in this country again, to be able to heal, and to try to move forward,” he said. “For me, it’s the best luck in the world.”

But when he closes his eyes at night, the fear that ICE officers will come for him dominates his dreams. He is now terrified to leave his apartment, he said.

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“You’re left with the nightmare of going to work and being stopped,” Castañeda Mondragón said, “or that you’re buying your food somewhere, your lunch, and they show up and stop you again. They hit you.”

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Video: Why ICE Raids in Minneapolis Are Driving Up Demand for Guns

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Video: Why ICE Raids in Minneapolis Are Driving Up Demand for Guns

new video loaded: Why ICE Raids in Minneapolis Are Driving Up Demand for Guns

Gun permit applications have surged in Minnesota since ICE raids began across the state in December. After weeks of protests and violent confrontations that led to the shooting deaths of two U.S. citizens, we traveled to Minneapolis to speak to some of the new gun owners choosing to exercise their right to bear arms.

By Michael Anthony Adams, Ben Garvin and Caroline Kim

February 7, 2026

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Councilmember Nithya Raman to run for L.A. mayor, challenging onetime ally Karen Bass

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Councilmember Nithya Raman to run for L.A. mayor, challenging onetime ally Karen Bass

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman is running for mayor, shaking up the field of candidates one final time.

Raman said she will challenge Mayor Karen Bass, her onetime ally, campaigning on issues of housing and homelessness, transparency and “safety in our streets.”

In an interview, Raman called Bass “an icon” and someone she deeply admires. But she said the city needs a change agent to address its problems.

“I have deep respect for Mayor Bass. We’ve worked closely together on my biggest priorities and her biggest priorities, and there’s significant alignment there,” said Raman, who lives in Silver Lake. “But over the last few months in particular, I’ve really begun to feel like unless we have some big changes in how we do things in Los Angeles, that the things we count on are not going to function anymore.”

Saturday’s announcement — hours before the noon filing deadline for the June 2 primary election — capped a chaotic week in L.A. politics, with candidates and would-be candidates dropping in and out of the race to challenge Bass, who is seeking a second four-year term.

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Raman would immediately pose a formidable challenge to Bass. She was the first council member to be elected with support from the Democratic Socialists of America, which scored an enormous victory last fall with the election of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Councilmember Nithya Raman jumps in the race for mayor, challenging former ally Karen Bass in the June primary.

(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)

At the same time, Raman has deep ties to leaders in the YIMBY movement, who have pushed for the city to boost housing production by upzoning single-family neighborhoods and rewriting Measure ULA, the so-called mansion tax, which applies to property sales of $5.3 million or more.

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Raman’s eleventh-hour announcement caps what has been the most turbulent candidate filing period for an L.A. mayoral election in at least a generation. She launched her bid less than a day after another political heavyweight, L.A. County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, decided against a run.

Until Raman’s surprise entry, the field had seemed to be clear of big-name challengers. Former L.A. schools superintendent Austin Beutner ended his campaign on Thursday, citing the death of his 22-year-old daughter. That same day, real estate developer Rick Caruso reaffirmed his decision not to run.

Bass campaign spokesperson Douglas Herman did not immediately provide comment.

Raman’s announcement comes as Bass continues to face sharp criticism over the city’s handling of the Palisades fire, which killed 12 people and destroyed thousands of homes. Unlike some of the candidates, Raman has not publicly criticized Bass about the city’s preparation for, or response to, the disaster.

Bass, 72, faces more than two dozen opponents from across the political spectrum.

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Reality TV star Spencer Pratt, a Republican, has received praise from an array of Trump supporters, including Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, of Florida. Pratt has focused heavily on the city’s handling of the fire, which destroyed his home.

Spencer Pratt poses for a portrait in Pacific Palisades.

Spencer Pratt poses for a portrait in Pacific Palisades.

(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)

Democratic socialist Rae Huang is running against the mayor from her political left. Huang has called for more public housing and for a reduction in the number of police officers, with the cost savings poured into other city services.

Brentwood tech entrepreneur Adam Miller, who has described himself as a lifelong Democrat, said the city is on a downward trajectory and needs stronger management. The 56-year-old nonprofit executive plans to tap his personal wealth to jump-start his campaign.

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Also in the race is Asaad Alnajjar, an employee of the Bureau of Street Lighting who sits on the Porter Ranch Neighborhood Council. Alnajjar has already lent his campaign $80,000.

At City Hall, Raman’s entrance into the mayor’s race is a bombshell, particularly given her relationship with Bass.

Mayor Karen Bass addresses the crowd at the Shine LA event at Hansen Dam Recreation Area.

Mayor Karen Bass addresses the crowd at the Shine LA event at Hansen Dam Recreation Area in Lake View Terrace, Calif., on Saturday.

(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)

In December 2022, not long after taking office, Bass launched her Inside Safe program, which moves homeless people indoors, in Raman’s district.

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Two years later, while running for reelection, Raman prominently featured Bass on at least a dozen of her campaign mailers and door hangers. Raman’s campaign produced a video ad that heavily excerpted Bass’ remarks endorsing her at a Sherman Oaks get-out-the-vote rally.

Raman, whose district stretches from Silver Lake to Reseda, ultimately won reelection with 50.7% of the vote. In the years that followed, she continued to praise Bass’ leadership.

In November, while appearing at a DSA election night watch party for Mamdani, Raman told The Times that Bass is “the most progressive mayor we’ve ever had in L.A.”

Last month, Bass formally announced that she had secured Raman’s endorsement, featuring her in a list of a dozen San Fernando Valley political leaders who backed her reelection campaign.

Raman ran for office in 2020, promising to put in place stronger tenant protections and provide a more effective, humane approach to combating homelessness. On her campaign platform, she called for the transformation of the LAPD into a “much smaller, specialized armed force” — but never specified what exactly that would mean.

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Nithya Raman, right, arrives with her chief of staff Andrea Conant to file paperwork to run for mayor

A woman takes a photo with her phone at the C. Erwin Piper Technical Center on Saturday.

(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)

Since then, the LAPD has lost about 1,300 officers — a decrease of about 13%. The City Council has put in place new eviction protections for tenants, while also capping the size of rent increases in the city’s “rent stabilized” apartments, which were mostly built before October 1978.

Raman does not face the same political risks as Horvath, who had already been running for reelection in her Westside and San Fernando Valley district. Horvath, had she run for mayor, would have had to forfeit her seat on the county Board of Supervisors.

If Raman loses, she would still hold her council seat, since she does not face reelection until 2028.

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