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Tester’s Senate Fate Could Make or Break a Harris Presidency
On the day Barack Obama took over the White House on Jan. 20, 2009, six of his cabinet nominees were immediately confirmed by the Senate. He signed his first piece of legislation — a major bill guaranteeing equal pay for women — into law just nine days later.
Should Vice President Kamala Harris win the presidency, she could not count on such cooperation from the chamber where she, like Mr. Obama, once served. Mr. Obama benefited from a big Democratic majority in the Senate. But Democrats are in control now by only the slimmest of margins, and their chances of keeping that majority most likely hang on the fate of Senator Jon Tester of Montana, who is currently trailing in his re-election race in his solidly red state.
If he should lose and Democrats fail to score any upsets in a handful of races they are not favored to win, Republicans would take over the Senate, putting Ms. Harris at loggerheads from the start with a newly empowered G.O.P. bent on stymying her at every turn.
“It is night and day,” Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, said about the difference between his party hanging on and Republicans winning the Senate. “It’s loss of control, putting the agenda very much in peril.”
At the moment, most analysts lean toward Republicans capturing the Senate, given a political map that was stacked against Democrats from the start and has only gotten tougher for them. The G.O.P. is all but certain to win the West Virginia seat being vacated by Senator Joe Manchin III. And Mr. Tester is lagging in a state expected to vote overwhelmingly for former President Donald J. Trump.
The swing of those two seats alone would be enough to knock Democrats out of their 51-to-49 majority and fundamentally alter the governing landscape if they cannot secure an upset win elsewhere. Polls show that other Democratic incumbents in battleground states, including Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jacky Rosen in Nevada, continue to run ahead of their Republican opponents.
The prospect of a new Democratic president and a Republican Senate is a rare scenario. The winner of the White House historically has had coattails that brought Congress into line — at least at the start. Presidents of both parties elected in recent decades have consistently been sworn in with their allies controlling both the House and the Senate. Not since Grover Cleveland in 1884 has a Democrat been elected to a first presidential term with a Republican Senate.
The potential for winning the White House and losing the Senate is a chief reason that Democrats are so determined to re-elect Mr. Tester, promising to stick with him to the finish whatever the polls say. Democrats say they have confidence that Mr. Tester can pull out a victory.
“There’s no world that you can conceive of that I’m not going to be in Montana until the end,” Senator Gary Peters, Democrat of Michigan and the chairman of the party’s Senate campaign operation, said during a recent speech at the National Press Club. “Jon Tester will have everything he needs to win.”
Yet Democrats are also beginning to allocate resources to the Republican-dominated states of Texas and Florida, where Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott have shown some weakness, as alternative paths to a Senate majority should Mr. Tester be unable to prevail. And in a surprise, Dan Osborn, an independent, is mounting a strong bid against Senator Deb Fischer, a Republican, in Nebraska. An upset there could deny Republicans a majority.
The stakes are enormous, particularly since the old notion of a honeymoon for a newly elected president is out the window. These days, many voters from the losing party expect their representatives to put up a fight, not rally around the winner.
Should they lose their Senate majority, Democrats would give up their all-important committee chairmanships. With Republicans in control, Ms. Harris would have to think about her cabinet choices in an entirely different way. The idea that presidents are entitled to their chosen nominees is a quaint one these days, and any picks would have to pass intense G.O.P. scrutiny.
Instead of making selections that could pass muster with a Democratic majority, Ms. Harris would need to choose candidates who could appeal to enough Republicans to win confirmation should they even clear committee and reach the floor for a vote. There would be no flurry of approvals on her first day in office.
“Obviously we would be in a position to negotiate nominations from everything from the Supreme Court to the Department of Homeland Security and everything in between,” said Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas and one of the men vying to replace Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky as party leader beginning in 2025. “It will be a different role.”
Mr. Cornyn also noted that a Republican Senate would be able to block Democrats from gutting the filibuster to pass new nationwide protections for abortion rights, a move that Ms. Harris has said she would support.
Things could get even more difficult when it comes to lifetime appointments to the federal courts. Democrats have so far placed 213 judges on the bench during the Biden administration. Republicans would want to slow that momentum and screen Ms. Harris’s choices extremely carefully after the confirmations of scores of judges they opposed.
As for the Supreme Court, it is not certain that a Democratic president could even get a nominee through a Republican-controlled Senate should a vacancy occur. At minimum, any Supreme Court nominee would need to be much more centrist than the person a Democratic president might select if her own party held the Senate majority.
“Particularly with the judiciary, because we have the power of confirmation, I think they’re going to have to think long and hard about who they submit and whether or not they think they could get them cleared through the Senate,” said Senator John Thune, Republican of South Dakota and another candidate for party leader. “But that’s a bridge we’ll cross if and when we come to it. Certainly we’re hoping we have all the reins of power next year.”
Depending on the final Senate margin, having Ms. Harris in the White House and the G.O.P. controlling the Senate could empower the dwindling band of more moderate Republicans like Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who might team up with Democrats on select issues and be persuaded to back some Democratic nominees. They would still have to find ways to force legislation to the floor and overcome the 60-vote filibuster.
Of course, a Democratic White House and a Republican Senate is just one possible scenario from the election, and nothing is locked in at this point. But a Trump presidency and a Democratic Senate seems a far more unlikely outcome while both parties still have a chance at securing the coveted trifecta of controlling the House, the Senate and the White House.
Under virtually any predicted outcome of the voting in November, the partisan margins in both the House and the Senate are going to be tight as they have been the past two years, making legislating precarious.
Democrats say they have shown they can make progress in a divided Congress by striking spending and legislative deals with Republicans while advancing executive branch and judicial nominees. They would relish a chance to do so again — but they would need to hang on in the Senate.
“Over the last four years,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, “we have shown what can get done with a Democratic president and a Democratic majority in the Senate.”
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Takeaways from an eventful 2025 election cycle
Is there such a thing as an “off year” for U.S. elections? The elections in 2025 were not nearly as all-encompassing as last year’s presidential race, nor as chaotic as what is expected from next year’s midterms. But hundreds of elections were held in dozens of states, including local contests, mayoral races, special congressional elections and two highly anticipated governor’s races.
Many of the elections were seen as early tests of how lasting President Trump’s 2024 gains might be and as a preview of what might happen in 2026.
Here are five takeaways from the 2025 election cycle.
In Elections Seen as Referendums on Trump, Democrats Won Big
Democrats did well in nearly all of this year’s elections, continuing a pattern that has played out across off-year elections for the last two decades: The party that wins the White House routinely loses ground in the next round of elections.
The change in the final margin from the presidential election to the next election for governor
Virginia and New Jersey have historically swung away from the president’s party in governor’s races
Elections in these years are often viewed as referendums on the president’s performance. And Mr. Trump’s approval ratings, after months of holding steady, took a dip in November.
A notable shift came in New Jersey, where the majority-Hispanic townships that swung toward Mr. Trump in 2024 swung back to Democrats in the 2025 governor’s race. That contributed significantly to the victory of Representative Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate, over Jack Ciattarelli, the Trump-backed Republican.
New Jersey’s majority-Hispanic towns snapped back left in 2025
Each line is a township whose width is sized to the number of votes cast in 2025
The leftward swing was viewed by many political commentators as a reaction to Mr. Trump. If that is the case, it remains to be seen how much of it will carry over into 2026.
Progressive and Moderate Democrats Are Both Claiming Victories
Democratic strategists continue to debate whether the party should embrace progressive candidates or more moderate ones. And in 2025, the election results had both sides feeling emboldened.
In New York City, Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who struggled to garner support from the Democratic Party, defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by nine points. A similar story played out in Jersey City, where James Solomon, a progressive, crushed former Gov. James McGreevey of New Jersey in a mayoral runoff. Progressives also prevailed in cities like Detroit and Seattle.
Centrist Democrats, meanwhile, came away with arguably the two biggest wins of the year against Trump-endorsed Republicans. Abigail Spanberger and Ms. Sherrill, both Democrats, outperformed their polling estimates and decisively won the high-profile governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey.
The debate will continue among Democrats as several 2026 primaries have prominent progressive and moderate candidates going head to head.
In Texas, Representative Jasmine Crockett, a progressive, entered the primary race for a U.S. Senate seat against the more moderate James Talarico. A similar situation has developed in Maine, where Graham Platner has pitched himself as a more progressive alternative to Janet Mills in the party’s attempt to unseat Senator Susan Collins, a Republican. Other progressives, like Julie Gonzales in Colorado and Brad Lander in New York, are challenging incumbent Democrats in primary races.
A Record 14 Women Will Serve as Governors in 2026
Virginians elected Ms. Spanberger as their first female governor. In New Jersey, Ms. Sherrill became the second woman to secure the position. Both women significantly outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris’s margins from the 2024 presidential race, improving on her results by almost 10 points.
Female candidates also did well down the ballot. Eileen Higgins will be the first female mayor in Miami after defeating Emilio González, who had the support of Mr. Trump. And, in Seattle, Katie Wilson defeated the incumbent mayor, Bruce Harrell.
States that will have female governors in 2026
Come 2026, a record 14 women — 10 Democrats and four Republicans — will serve as governors, with six of them expected to run for re-election next year. (More than a dozen states have yet to elect a female governor.)
In New York, it is likely that both candidates will be women: Representative Elise Stefanik, a Republican, began a campaign last month against the incumbent, Kathy Hochul.
Special Elections Are Still Very Special (for Democrats)
Despite not flipping any House seats, Democrats outperformed Ms. Harris’s 2024 results in every House special election this cycle. Their wins, however, offer limited insight into what might happen in 2026.
Special elections, which happen outside of regular election cycles to fill vacated seats, draw fewer voters than those in midterm or presidential years. Special election voters tend to be older and highly engaged politically, and they are more likely to be college educated. That has given Democrats a distinct advantage in recent years, and 2025 was no exception.
Democratic candidates in this year’s special congressional elections outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 margins.
Democrats did well in the 2025 special elections
Democratic strength in special elections extended to lower-profile races held this year. In Virginia, Democrats secured 64 out of 100 seats in the House of Delegates. In Georgia, Democrats won two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission, the first time the party won a non-federal statewide office since 2006. Pennsylvania Democrats swept the major Bucks County contests, electing a Democratic district attorney for the first time. And, in Mississippi, Democrats broke the Republican supermajority in the State Senate.
Odd-Numbered Years Are Still Very Odd (for Election Polls)
Polling in off-year election cycles is challenging because it’s hard to know who will turn out to vote. This year, the polls significantly overestimated the Republicans in the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races, which both had particularly high turnout for an off year. In 2021, polls had the opposite problem, as they overestimated Democrats.
Each dot is a poll from the relevant governor’s election, positioned according to its polling error in the election.
Polls missed in opposite directions in 2021 and 2025
Polling misses don’t necessarily carry over from cycle to cycle: Despite the leftward bias of the polls in 2021, they performed very well in 2022. After each election, pollsters look at the result and evaluate their performance, and then note where they went wrong. Analysis from groups like the American Association for Public Opinion Research frequently indicates that errors come from an incorrect sense of who shows up to vote. Pollsters then try to adjust for this error in the next election cycle.
The errors of 2025 may prove largely irrelevant, however, as the midterm elections will feature a larger, very different pool of voters with a new set of races, and a new host of lessons for pollsters to learn.
Off years are weird, and the polling errors they produce often are as well.
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Putin tells news conference that Kremlin’s military goals will be achieved in Ukraine
MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Moscow’s troops were advancing across the battlefield in Ukraine, voicing confidence that the Kremlin’s military goals would be achieved.
Speaking at his highly orchestrated year-end news conference, Putin declared that Russian forces have “fully seized strategic initiative” and would make more gains by the year’s end.
Russia’s larger, better-equipped army has made slow but steady progress in Ukraine in recent months.
The annual live news conference is combined with a nationwide call-in show that offers Russians across the country the opportunity to ask questions of Putin, who has led the country for 25 years. Putin has used it to cement his power and air his views on domestic and global affairs.
This year, observers are watching for Putin’s remarks on Ukraine and the U.S.-backed peace plan there.
U.S. President Donald Trump has unleashed an extensive diplomatic push to end nearly four years of fighting after Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, but Washington’s efforts have run into sharply conflicting demands by Moscow and Kyiv.
Putin reaffirmed that Moscow was ready for a peaceful settlement that would address the “root causes” of the conflict, a reference to the Kremlin’s tough conditions for a deal.
Earlier this week, Putin warned this week that Moscow would seek to extend its gains in Ukraine if Kyiv and its Western allies reject the Kremlin’s demands.
The Russian leader wants all the areas in four key regions captured by his forces, as well as the Crimean Peninsula, which was illegally annexed in 2014, to be recognized as Russian territory. He also has insisted that Ukraine withdraw from some areas in eastern Ukraine that Moscow’s forces haven’t captured yet — demands Kyiv has rejected.
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Video: Trump Mocks Obama, Biden in His Presidential ‘Walk of Fame’
new video loaded: Trump Mocks Obama, Biden in His Presidential ‘Walk of Fame’
By Chris Cameron and Jackeline Luna
December 18, 2025
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