Montana

Tester outraising Republican opponent 2-1 in Montana, still behind in polls

Published

1 year ago

September 27, 2024

Tester outraising Republican opponent 2-1 in Montana, still behind in polls

Republican Tim Sheehy has built up a steady polling lead against Democratic Senator Jon Tester in what may become the most important Senate race of the 2024 election.

Montana, usually a ruby-red state, is home to one of the most competitive Senate elections of the cycle. Tester, a centrist Democrat who has served as senator since 2006, has outrun other Democrats in the state in the past, and the party’s majority may hinge on his ability to win in November.

But a flurry of recent polls showing Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL officer and businessman, in the lead has sparked concerns about whether he can win in Montana this year. Turnout is expected to be high in a state former President Donald Trump will almost certainly win. Montana’s history of ticket-splitting has also ebbed in recent years.

While Sheehy has benefitted from strong polling numbers, Tester still holds a fundraising advantage.

So far this campaign, Tester has raised about $43 million, while Sheehy has raised nearly $14 million, according to data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC). Meanwhile, Tester has spent more than $32.6 million, while Sheehy has spent over $10.6 million, the nonprofit OpenSecrets reported.

Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy speaks during a rally in Bozeman on August 9, 2024. Senator Jon Tester speaks in Billings, Montana on September 2, 2024. Polls show Sheehy with a lead over Tester…

Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images; William Campbell/Getty Images

At the end of June, Tester had about $10.9 million in the bank, compared to $1.7 million for Sheehy, according to the FEC. Fundraising is crucial for any Senate candidate, but Montana is a smaller, generally less expensive state with fewer media markets than other key Senate races in states like Pennsylvania or Texas.

The amount of money both parties pour into the race speaks to its importance this year. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 Senate majority and are expected to lose at least the seat vacated by West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.

This means Democrats must win every other seat they currently hold or flip one elsewhere to retain their majority in what has been viewed as a particularly challenging map in November. Montana is considered the tipping point for Senate control, with Ohio being another Democratic-held seat in a Republican-leaning state viewed as a potential GOP flip.

Tester continued to outraise Sheehy in the second quarter, bringing in $10.5 million to Sheehy’s $5.3 million, according to the Helena-based Independent Record.

Outside PACs have also spent tens of millions of dollars on the race, according to OpenSecrets.

GOP-supporting PACs have spent more than $13 million on advertisements supporting Sheehy and more than $30 million opposing Tester. Conversely, Democratic-leaning PACs have spent $3.5 million in support of Tester and nearly $31 million opposing Sheehy, according to the nonprofit.

The Last Best Place PAC, reported by HuffPost to be affiliated with Democratic leadership, has been the top outside spender in the race, pouring in $19 million. Meanwhile, the GOP-aligned More Jobs, Less Government PAC spent $18.8 million on the election, according to OpenSecrets.

Tester spokesperson Monica Robinson told Newsweek on Friday that the senator is “no stranger to tough races.”

“He’s won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, and he has a record of delivering for Montana. Montanans know that the dirt farmer from Big Sandy is the best choice to defend Montana – not the multimillionaire out-of-stater Tim Sheehy, who doesn’t understand our way of life and is changing Montana for the worse,” Robinson said.

Newsweek also reached out to the Sheehy campaign for comment via email.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate gave Sheehy a 3.7-point advantage over Tester on Thursday following weeks of strong Republican polling in the state.

An RMG Research/Napolitan Institute survey conducted among 491 likely voters from September 12 to September 19 showed Sheehy up seven points (50 percent to 43 percent).

That pollster showed Tester with a lead as recently as last month, with an August 6 to August 14 poll among 540 registered voters showing Tester up five points (49 percent to 44 percent).

A Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research/AARP poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters from August 25 to August 29, showed Sheehy up six points in a head-to-head race (51 percent to 45 percent).

Elsewhere, an American Pulse Research & Polling/KULR-TV poll showed Sheehy with a 6-point lead over Tester (51 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 538 registered voters from August 10 to August 12.

Sheehy, endorsed by Trump, has faced scrutiny after a Native American news publication released audio recordings allegedly of Sheehy using stereotypes about Indigenous people. His spokesperson told the Associated Press, “What folks are insinuating about him, that’s just not who he is.”

Following the spate of polls showing Sheehy with a lead, Democrats announced plans for new investments in the Florida and Texas Senate races this week, suggesting they may see the Montana race as increasingly out of reach.

Even though Republican incumbent Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott have been viewed as favorites, recent polls showed the states could be closer than Montana as democratic challengers Representative Colin Allred and former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell gain ground.

The Cook Political Report rates Montana’s Senate race as “Lean Republican,” meaning it is “considered competitive,” but the GOP “has an advantage.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball also reclassified the race from “toss-up” to “Lean Republican” on September 6, with forecaster Kyle Kondik writing that “history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side.”

“He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election,” Kondik wrote. “Many of Tester’s red-state Democratic colleagues have lost or retired in recent years, and it is a credit to his abilities that he has won 3 Senate elections in a state that is otherwise clearly Republican.”

Update 9/27/24, 5:43 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Monica Robinson.

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Montana

Apparent AI Glitch in Filing by Montana Public Defender, Recent Congressional Candidate

Published

1 hour ago

March 2, 2026

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Apparent AI Glitch in Filing by Montana Public Defender, Recent Congressional Candidate

Everyone makes mistakes, even experienced professionals; a good reminder for the rest of us to learn from those mistakes. The motion in State v. Stroup starts off well in its initial pages (no case law hallucinations), but is then followed by several pages of two other motions, which I don’t think the lawyer was planning to file, and which appear to have been AI-generated: It begins with the “Below is concise motion language you can drop into …” language quoted above.

Griffen Smith (Missoulian) reported on the story, and included the prosecutor’s motion to strike that filing, on the grounds that it violates a local rule (3(G)) requiring disclosure of the use of generative AI:

The document does not include a generative artificial intelligence disclosure as required. However, page 7 begins as follows: “Below is concise motion language you can drop into a ‘Motion to Admit Mental-Disease Evidence and for Related Instructions’ keyed to 45-6-204, 45-6-201, and 4614-102. Adjust headings/captions to your local practice.” Page 10 states “Below is a full motion you can paste into your pleading, then adjust names, dates, and styles to fit local practice.” These pages also include several apparent hyperlinks to “ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws,” “ppl-ai-fileupload.s3.amazonaws+1,” and others. The document includes what appears to be an attempt at a second case caption on page 12. It is not plausible on its face that any source other than generative AI would have created such language for a filed version of a brief….

There’s more in that filing, but here’s one passage:

While generative AI can be a useful tool for some purposes and may have greater application in the future, when used improperly, and without meaningful review, it can ultimately damage both the perception and the reality of the profession. One assumes that Mr. Stroup has had, or will at some point have, an opportunity to review the filing made on his behalf. What impression could a review of pgs. 12-19 leave upon a defendant who struggles with paranoia and delusional thinking? While AI could theoretically one day become a replacement for portions of staff of experienced attorneys, it is readily apparent that this day has not yet arrived.

The Missoulan article includes this response:

In a Wednesday interview, Office of Public Defender Division Administrator Brian Smith told the Missoulian the AI-generated language was inadvertently included in an unrelated filing. And he criticized the county attorney’s office for filing a “four-page diatribe about the dangers of AI” instead of working with the defense to correct her mistake.
“That’s not helping the client or the case,” Smith said, “and all you are doing is trying to throw a professional colleague under the bus.”

As I mentioned, the lawyer involved seems quite experienced, and ran for the Montana Public Service Commission in 2020 (getting nearly 48% of the vote) and for the House of Representatives in Montana’s first district in 2022 (getting over 46% of the vote) and in 2024 (getting over 44%). “Его пример другим наука,” Pushkin wrote in Eugene Onegin—”May his example profit others,” in the Falen translation.

Thanks to Matthew Monforton for the pointer.

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Montana

Your guide to local sports events, plus what’s on TV

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13 hours ago

March 2, 2026

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Your guide to local sports events, plus what’s on TV

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Montana

Montana Department of Agriculture focusing on innovation in 2026

Published

1 day ago

March 1, 2026

Press Room

Montana Department of Agriculture focusing on innovation in 2026

HELENA — You probably have goals and plans for 2026—the Montana Department of Agriculture does too.

“We’re really focusing on innovative agricultural practices,” Montana Department of Agriculture director Jillien Streit said.

It’s no secret that agriculture—farming and ranching—is not easy. There are long days, planning, monitoring crops and livestock, and other challenges beyond farmers’ and ranchers’ control.

(WATCH: Montana Department of Agriculture focusing on innovation in 2026)

Montana Department of Agriculture focusing on innovation in 2026

“We have very low commodity prices across the board,” Streit said. “We still have very high input prices across the board, and we have really high prices when it comes to our equipment, and so, it’s a really tough year.”

But innovation, including new practices, partnerships and technology use, can help navigate some of those challenges.

“We can’t make more time and we can’t make more land, so we need to start putting together innovative practices that help us maximize what our time and land can do,” Streit said.

Practices range from using technology like autonomous tractors and virtual fencing—allowing rangers to contain and move cattle right from their phones—to regenerative farming and ranching.

“It is bringing cattle back into farming operations to be able to work with cover cropping practices to invigorate the soil for new soil health benefits,” Streit said.

The Montana Department of Agriculture is working to help producers learn, share, and collaborate on new ideas to work in their operations.

The department will share stories of practices that work from farms and ranches across the state. Also, within the next year or so, Streit said the department is hoping to roll out technology to help producers collaborate.

“(It’s) providing a communication platform where people can get together and really help each other out by utilizing each other’s assets,” she said.

While not easy, agriculture is still one of Montana’s largest industries, and Streit said innovating and sharing ideas across the state can keep it going long into the future.

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