FIRST ON THE DAILY SIGNAL—A new poll shows Republican challenger Tim Sheehy taking the lead over incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, in the battle for a U.S. Senate seat in Montana that pundits say could determine what party controls the U.S. Senate.

Fully 50% of those polled said they would pick Sheehy over Tester if the Nov. 5 election were held today, the poll found. Tester, in office since 2007, was supported by 41%.

The new poll also found that 3% said they would vote for “some other candidate,” 2% said they wouldn’t vote, and 4% said they weren’t sure.

In the presidential race, the same poll found Republican Donald Trump fared far better at 59% than Democrat Kamala Harris at 38%.

The poll found that only 18% of likely Montana voters said their personal finances were getting better these days, while 54% said their finances were getting worse.

Sheehy’s popularity in the Senate race apparently has grown since the last known poll results a month ago. That poll, conducted Aug. 6-14, found Tester had 49% and Sheehy 44%.

The new poll, conducted Sept. 12-19 by RMG Research for the Napolitan News Service, included 491 likely voters in Montana. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Asked whether they knew their vote could decide what party would control the Senate, 57% said they would vote Republican and 36% said they would vote Democrat.

Overall, Tester had a 45% favorable rating and a 52% unfavorable rating.

Trump had a 59% favorable rating compared to Harris’ 36%. The former president had a 40% unfavorable rating compared with the vice president’s 63% unfavorable rating.

The Republican candidate has won Montana in 16 of the past 18 presidential elections since 1952, according to Ballotpedia.

According to the poll, Trump is about as popular as Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, a Republican, who got a 58% favorable rating.

The poll found that Trump’s strongest support was among men, with 43% saying they have a “very favorable” view of him; by comparison, 33% of women polled said they have a “very favorable” view of Trump.

Trump suffers among registered independents, the poll found, with only 4% saying they hold a “very favorable” view of him, compared with 73% who said their view of him is “very unfavorable.”

Harris saw her strongest support come from nonwhite voters, 39% of whom said they have a “very favorable” of her compared to the 31% of nonwhites who said they have a “very favorable” view of Trump.

The poll also found that the economy was the most important issue to 38% of those polled, illegal immigration was second at 29%, and abortion third at 11%.