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Kamala Harris’ surprisingly strong polling in state Dems lost for 60 years

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Kamala Harris’ surprisingly strong polling in state Dems lost for 60 years


Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris only trails Republican nominee former President Donald Trump by single digits in Alaska, a state that a Democratic presidential hopeful hasn’t won in six decades.

The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Alaska was President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964—exactly 60 years ago. The GOP has won the state in every presidential election since then, carrying the state by comfortable double-digit margins in recent cycles.

Trump’s margin did shrink in Alaska between 2016 and 2020. In his first election against Hillary Clinton, he carried the state by nearly 15 points, but that went down to a lead of 10 points when he was up against President Joe Biden. Notably, Alaskans bucked Trump’s favored Senate and House candidates in the 2022 midterm election.

Democratic Representative Mary Peltola and anti-Trump GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski won their races despite Trump endorsing their opponents and campaigning against them. They were buoyed by Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system, in which voters get to list and rank multiple options for each office on the ballot.

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Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email on Saturday morning.

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a rally on September 13 in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. Former President Donald Trump greets supporters during a campaign rally on September 13 in Las Vegas. New polling suggests Harris is just…


Dominic Gwinn/Middle East Images via AFP/Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

What the Alaska Poll Shows

New polling conducted by Alaska Survey Research from September 11 to 12, after the ABC News debate between Harris and Trump, showed the Democrat down by 5 points with likely voters in the northwestern state. Harris had the support of 42 percent of respondents, whereas Trump had the backing of 47 percent.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was running as an independent but endorsed Trump in late August, received 5 percent support. An additional 6 percent said they were still undecided. Sixty-seven percent of respondents said they had watched the debate between Harris and Trump, with 52 percent saying Harris had won.

The poll included 1,254 likely Alaskan voters. The margin of error and confidence level were not posted with the results.

With ranked-choice voting, those who list Kennedy Jr. as their first choice could select Harris or Trump as their second choice on the ballot. Their votes would then be redistributed in a second round of counting, assuming Kennedy Jr. would be eliminated in the first round. Several other presidential hopefuls, including Libertarian contender Chase Oliver and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, have qualified to be on the ballot in Alaska.

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Nate Silver Weighs In

Nate Silver, the founder of the Silver Bulletin polling analysis, shared the polling on Substack on Friday, noting that his model has been “bullish” on Harris’ chances of winning Alaska.

“LOL, Silver Bulletin model had been randomly bullish on D chances in Alaska even before this poll. Just 3 electoral votes so unlikely to matter, but 8th-highest state in our Voter Power Index (impact per marginal vote),” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

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Silver previously founded the prominent FiveThirtyEight polling analysis site, which is now owned by ABC News. He parted ways with ABC and FiveThirtyEight in 2023.

What National and Swing State Polling Shows

Nationally, Harris appears to be narrowly ahead of Trump. Silver’s polling average shows the vice president with 48.3 percent support compared to the former president’s 46.2 percent. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with 48.1 percent and Trump with 45.4 percent.

In the critical swing states, Harris narrowly leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, according to Silver’s average. Meanwhile, Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona, with the candidates tied in North Carolina and Nevada.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has Harris up by slim margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. Trump is narrowly ahead in Arizona and Georgia, while FiveThirtyEight shows the candidates tied in North Carolina.

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Over $150K worth of drugs seized from man in Juneau, police say

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Over 0K worth of drugs seized from man in Juneau, police say


JUNEAU, Alaska (KTUU) – An Alaska drug task force seized roughly $162,000 worth of controlled substances during an operation in Juneau Thursday, according to the Juneau Police Department.

Around 3 p.m. Thursday, investigators with the Southeast Alaska Cities Against Drugs (SEACAD) approached 50-year-old Juneau resident Jermiah Pond in the Nugget Mall parking lot while he was sitting in his car, according to JPD.

A probation search of the car revealed a container holding about 7.3 gross grams of a substance that tested presumptively positive for methamphetamine, as well as about 1.21 gross grams of a substance that tested presumptively positive for fentanyl.

As part of the investigation, investigators executed a search warrant at Pond’s residence, during which they found about 46.63 gross grams of ketamine, 293.56 gross grams of fentanyl, 25.84 gross grams of methamphetamine and 25.5 gross grams of MDMA.

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In all, it amounted to just less than a pound of drugs worth $162,500.

Investigators also seized $102,640 in cash and multiple recreational vehicles believed to be associated with the investigation.

Pond was lodged on charges of second-degree misconduct involving a controlled substance, two counts of third-degree misconduct involving a controlled substance, five counts of fourth-degree misconduct involving a substance and an outstanding felony probation warrant.

See a spelling or grammar error? Report it to web@ktuu.com

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Sand Point teen found 3 days after going missing in lake

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Sand Point teen found 3 days after going missing in lake


SAND POINT, Alaska (KTUU) – A teenage boy who was last seen Monday when the canoe he was in tipped over has been found by a dive team in a lake near Sand Point, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Alaska’s News Source confirmed with the person, who is close to the search efforts, that the dive team found 15-year-old Kaipo Kaminanga deceased Thursday in Red Cove Lake, located a short drive from the town of Sand Point on the Aleutian Island chain.

Kaminanga was last seen canoeing with three other friends on Monday when the boat tipped over.

A search and rescue operation ensued shortly after.

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Alaska Dive Search Rescue and Recovery Team posted on Facebook Thursday night that they were able to “locate and recover” Kaminanga at around 5 p.m. Thursday.

“We are glad we could bring closure to his family, friends and community,” the post said.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated when more details become available.

See a spelling or grammar error? Report it to web@ktuu.com

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Opinion: Homework for Alaska: Sales tax or income tax?

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Opinion: Homework for Alaska: Sales tax or income tax?


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This is a tax tutorial for gubernatorial candidates, for legislators who will report to work next year and for the Alaska public.

Think of it as homework, with more than eight months to complete the assignment that is not due until the November election. The homework is intended to inform, not settle the debate over a state sales tax or state income tax — or neither, which is the preferred option for many Alaskans.

But for those Alaskans willing to consider a tax as a personal responsibility to help fund schools, roads, public safety, child care, state troopers, prisons, foster care and everything else necessary for healthy and productive lives, someday they will need to decide on a state income tax or a state sales tax after they accept the checkbook reality that oil and Permanent Fund earnings are not enough.

This homework assignment is intended to get people thinking with facts, not emotions. Electing the right candidates will be the first test.

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Alaskans have until the next election because nothing will change this year. It will take a new political alignment led by a reality-based governor to organize support in the Legislature and among the public.

But next year, maybe, with the right elected leadership, Alaskans can debate a state sales tax or personal income tax. Plus, of course, corporate taxes and oil production taxes, but those are for another school day.

One of the biggest arguments in favor of a state sales tax is that visitors would pay it. Yes, they would, but not as much as many Alaskans think.

Air travel is exempt from sales taxes. So are cruise ship tickets. That’s federal law, which means much of what tourists spend on their Alaska vacation is beyond the reach of a state sales tax.

Cutting further into potential revenues, state and federal law exempts flightseeing tours from sales tax, which is a particularly costly exemption when you think about how much visitors spend on airplane and helicopter tours.

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That leaves sales tax supporters collecting from tourists on T-shirts, gifts for grandchildren, artwork, postcards, hotels, Airbnb, car rentals and restaurant meals. Still a substantial take for taxes, but far short of total tourism spending.

An argument against a state sales tax is that more than 100 cities and boroughs already depend on local sales taxes to pay for schools and other public services. Try to imagine what a state tax piled on top of a local tax would do to kill shopping in Homer, already at 7.85%, or Kodiak, Wrangell and Cordova, all at 7%, and all the other municipalities.

Supporters of an income tax say it would share the responsibility burden with nonresidents who earn income in Alaska and then return home to spend their money.

Almost one in four workers in Alaska in 2024 were nonresidents, as reported by the state Department of Labor in January. That doesn’t include federal employees, active-duty military or self-employed people.

Nonresidents earned roughly $3.8 billion, or about 17% of every dollar covered in the report.

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However, many of those nonresident workers are lower-wage and seasonal, employed in the seafood processing and tourism industries, unlikely to pay much in income taxes. But a tax could be structured so that they pay something, which is fair.

Meanwhile, higher-wage workers in oil and gas, mining, construction and airlines (freight and passenger service) would pay taxes on their income earned in Alaska, which also is fair.

It comes down to what would direct more of the tax burden to nonresidents: a tax on income or on visitor spending. Wages or wasabi-crusted salmon dinners.

Larry Persily is a longtime Alaska journalist, with breaks for federal, state and municipal public policy work in Alaska and Washington, D.C. He lives in Anchorage and is publisher of the Wrangell Sentinel weekly newspaper.

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