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Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leading Trump Narrowly In Michigan And Wisconsin—But Tied In Pennsylvania

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Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leading Trump Narrowly In Michigan And Wisconsin—But Tied In Pennsylvania


Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has razor-thin leads over former President Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, but the two candidates are tied in the crucial state of Pennsylvania, according to a new CBS/YouGov poll—reflecting a tight race in the key battleground states with just two months before the election.

Key Facts

Pennsylvania: Harris and Trump are tied here at 50% of likely voters according to CBS—similar to Trump’s 50%-49% lead over President Joe Biden in an April CBS poll, but a swing in Harris’ favor from July, when Trump was leading by four points in a July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey (the latest CBS poll had a margin of error of 3.4 points).

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Michigan: Harris is up 50%-49%, CBS and YouGov found, well within the 3.6-point margin of error, and narrower than Harris’ five-point lead in a late August CNN/SSRS poll and her 11-point advantage in the July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.

Wisconsin: Harris had a 51%-49% lead in the CBS/YouGov poll, with a 4-point margin of error, a shift from her 50%-44% edge according to CNN and SSRS (though 14% of voters say they could change their minds), and on par with the two-point advantage she held here in July’s Bloomberg poll.

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Arizona: Trump leads Harris by five points, 49% to 44%, according to a survey of likely voters by CNN/SSRS from Aug. 23 to 29, though 14% of Arizona voters said they might change their minds before November—Trump trailed Harris by two points, 49% to 47%, here in the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey of registered voters taken just after President Joe Biden’s exit from the race.

Georgia: Harris is up by one point here, 48% to 47%, according to CNN/SSRS, within the 4.7-point margin of error, while 11% of likely voters surveyed suggested they could change their minds (she and Trump were tied here in July with 47% support each in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll).

Nevada: Another state with no clear leader, Harris leads by one point, 48% to 47%, and 13% of respondents told CNN/SSRS they’re not firmly committed to the candidates they prefer now, a slight decline from Harris’ two-point lead here in the July survey.

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Big Number

2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in North Carolina, 49% to 47%, among registered voters, according to a late August Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, reversing the 48% to 46% lead Trump held there in July. North Carolina is widely considered a battleground state this year following changes in the population over the past decade that have shifted it more toward the left.

Tangent

Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to a recent New York Times survey, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

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Further Reading

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out (Forbes)

Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)

Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)



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Pennsylvania

Cause determined for plane crash that killed school board president in Chester County

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Cause determined for plane crash that killed school board president in Chester County


Friday, March 6, 2026 7:13PM

Cause determined for plane crash that killed school board president in Chester County

WEST CALN TWP., Pa. (WPVI) — Investigators have revealed the cause of a plane crash that killed a Chester County school board president two years ago.

The National Transportation Safety Board blamed it on inadequate preflight inspection.

There was a loss of engine power because the fuel was contaminated with water from a recent rainfall, the NTSB said.

The plane crashed shortly after takeoff in West Caln Township on February 1, 2024.

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Octorara Area School District School Board President Sam Ganow was killed when a small plane crashed Thursday in Chester County, Pennsylvania.

The pilot, Sam Ganow, was the only one onboard.

He was the Octorara Area School District board president.

Copyright © 2026 WPVI-TV. All Rights Reserved.



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Pennsylvania man arrested for allegedly feeding pet parakeet marijuana and beer

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Pennsylvania man arrested for allegedly feeding pet parakeet marijuana and beer


A Pennsylvania man was arrested on animal cruelty charges for allegedly feeding marijuana and beer to his pet parakeet after bringing the injured feathered friend to a bar, according to reports.

Timothy Grace, 40, was busted on Feb. 21 after carrying his wounded pet budgie named “Blue Skies” in his pocket to Callaghan’s Bar in Greensburg, according to CBS Pittsburgh.

Timothy Grace was arrested on animal cruelty charges for allegedly feeding marijuana and beer to his pet parakeet after bringing the injured feathered friend to a bar. WTAE

“The caller’s a bartender. She says there is a white male at the bar with a parakeet,” a dispatcher reported on the police radio transmissions obtained by the outlet.

“The patron was bragging to other people that were inside the bar that he feeds the parakeet marijuana and has it drink beer on a daily basis,” Detective Sergeant Justin Scalzo told the outlet.

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Grace “appeared extremely intoxicated” when police showed up to the bar and found the pet bird in distress, according to court documents obtained by the outlet.

“Its leg appeared to be broken,” Scalzo said, according to WTAE. “Its foot was actually facing the wrong direction.”

Grave was initially arrested for public intoxication and now faces charges including aggravated cruelty to animals and transporting animals in a cruel manner, the outlet said.

The pet bird was brought to PEARL Parrot Rescue in the Pittsburgh area, which rushed him to an emergency care facility.


Exterior of Callaghan's bar, with a sign showing
The injured parakeet is still breathing hard, remains on antibiotics, and has to wear a splint on his right leg. WTAE

Blue Skies spent four days in the hospital and was later taken in to be fostered by Teri Grendzinski, the president of PEARL. The injured parakeet is still breathing hard, remains on antibiotics, and has to wear a splint on his right leg, CBS reported.

“They realized his leg was broken. He also had some respiratory issues going on,” Grendzinski told the outlet. “He was also very, very skinny.”

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“The leg was broken badly enough there is a chance they’re going to have to amputate the leg if it doesn’t heal correctly,” she added.

If Blue Skies is eventually put up for adoption, he will require specialized care, the outlet said.

“When we got that call, it was horrifying. Why would you do that to a bird?” Grendzinski said.



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Pa. man found guilty of raping teen girl who he took to Mexico

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Pa. man found guilty of raping teen girl who he took to Mexico


A Pennsylvania man was found guilty of repeatedly raping his daughter’s best friend over a three-year span before fleeing with the teen to Mexico.

On Thursday, March 5, 2026, Kevin Esterly, 53, of Whitehall Township, Pennsylvania, was convicted on all counts of rape, statutory sexual assault, involuntary sexual intercourse and endangering the welfare of children.

Esterly shook his head as the verdict was read but said nothing in the courtroom.

Resources for victims of sexual assault are available through the National Sexual Violence Resources Center and the National Sexual Assault Telephone Hotline at 800-656-4673.

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Esterly’s trial began on Tuesday, March 3, after a judge denied his pretrial motion for the charges against him to be dismissed and for the Lehigh County District Attorney to be removed as a prosecutor in the case.

Both Esterly and his victim testified on Wednesday, March 4.

The victim — who is now 24-years-old — told the courtroom that she met Esterly and his family while attending church as a child and became best friends with one of his daughters. Esterly was a youth leader and elder at the church at the time. The victim said Esterly also coached her soccer team.

The victim said she became so close to Esterly’s family that she called his wife “mom” and eventually spent almost every weekend at their home in Lowhill Township, Pennsylvania. She also said she vacationed with them in New York state and Ocean City, Maryland.

The victim said Esterly first sexually assaulted her in August 2015 when she was 13-years-old after he gave her alcohol during a family birthday party.

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“I was scared. Frozen in fear,” the woman told the courtroom on Wednesday. “I pretended I was sleeping.”

The woman accused Esterly of sexually assaulting her almost every time she slept over at his home. She told the courtroom she eventually became addicted to alcohol and drugs, which Esterly gave her in exchange for sex. According to the woman, Esterly gave her cocaine and methamphetamine to keep her awake during school because she “would be up with him all night.”

The woman said Esterly continued to sexually assault her until he was confronted by his wife in 2017. Esterly’s wife then threw him out of the house, according to the victim. She said Esterly continued to sexually assault her over the next year.

Esterly was later arrested and then sentenced to prison after federal agents found him with the victim in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, in 2018. She was 16-years-old at the time.

The woman said she moved on and went to college after Esterly’s sentencing though she still struggled with drug addiction. She said she sought counseling in February 2025. She told the courtroom she received a message from Esterly on LinkedIn that same month in which he apologized for “failing you as a person I was supposed to be for you.” At that point Esterly had been released from prison.

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The woman said she had not told anyone about her relationship with Esterly up to that point and replied to him, “I live with our secret every day as I promised. I would appreciate an apology.”

The woman told the courtroom that Esterly responded by writing, “I hope one day you can forgive me. Nobody knows I reached out to you. That is the best for both of us.”

On Feb. 21, 2025, Allentown Police received a report of Esterly’s sexual assaults which led to the new charges being filed against him. He was arrested in West Virginia in June 2025 after two police pursuits. He was then extradited to Pennsylvania.

The victim told the courtroom on Wednesday that she kept quiet about Esterly’s abuse for years because she “was afraid to speak,” and felt “dirty and ashamed.”

“I wasn’t ready to tell anyone,” she said. “He was a father figure in my life. I loved him.”

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The woman also said she didn’t want to hurt Esterly’s daughter who was her best friend.

When the District Attorney asked her why she was “here today,” she replied by saying, “I want to tell the truth. I want to be set free.”

The woman ended her testimony by saying, “I don’t want to live with this secret anymore.”

After her testimony, Esterly took the stand for 45 minutes, denied all of the accusations against him and accused the woman of lying.

Closing arguments then took place Thursday morning. It then took an hour for the jury of seven women and five men to reach their verdict.

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