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Prediction: Solana Will Be the First Cryptocurrency to Get a Spot ETF in 2025 | The Motley Fool

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Prediction: Solana Will Be the First Cryptocurrency to Get a Spot ETF in 2025 | The Motley Fool

With Bitcoin and Ethereum already sporting their own funds, here’s my pick for the next up to bat.

In the wake of the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals, there’s been a lot of speculation about which crypto might be next. Already, a handful of names have been suggested, including all of the usual suspects: XRP, Solana (SOL 9.57%), Cardano, Litecoin, and Avalanche.

Of these, Solana has the best chance of getting a spot ETF. In fact, this could happen as early as January 2025. From my perspective, there are two key factors that make this likely to happen.

Market demand

In terms of market cap, Solana ranks fifth among all major cryptocurrencies. That’s a huge determining factor, because market cap can be useful as a proxy for investor demand. As a general rule of thumb, Wall Street isn’t going to launch a product if there isn’t sufficient demand for it, so it’s worth looking into how much demand is coming from both retail and institutional investors.

Image source: Getty Images.

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At the end of June, crypto investment firm GSR ran the numbers and concluded that Solana trailed only Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of overall demand. The firm’s “demand analysis” took into account three key factors: (1) market cap and overall trading volume, (2) assets under management of investment products already in the marketplace, and (3) size, activity, and reach of the online community for a specific token. Across all of these metrics, Solana outpaced rivals XRP, Cardano, and Avalanche.

There’s also great data available from CoinShares, which tracks institutional investor inflows into and out of the major cryptocurrencies. According to its latest report from early August, Solana still has a clear lead over major rivals such as XRP, Cardano, and Litecoin in terms of year-to-date inflows. That being said, investor inflows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum dwarf anything that’s happening with Solana right now.

Regulatory outlook

Of course, there’s no way that a Solana ETF is going to be approved if regulators have any doubts over whether Solana might actually be a security. This was the one factor that was hanging over Solana during much of the past year. But at the end of July, the SEC appeared to back down from its earlier stance when it acknowledged that it would no longer be looking into Solana as a potential security. If you’re hoping for a Solana ETF, that’s exactly what you want to see happen.

Moreover, it’s important to keep an eye on what’s happening in other financial markets, beyond the borders of the U.S. For example, in August, Brazilian regulators approved a spot Solana ETF. If that performs well in Brazil, then it could make it much easier to approve a U.S. version of the ETF. And, indeed, investment firm VanEck — one of only two firms that have already submitted a spot Solana ETF application to the SEC — now says that a Solana ETF is “inevitable.” I wouldn’t go that far, but it is looking good right now for Solana.

What to look for in 2024

As we saw from the recent market mini-crash in early August, there’s still quite a bit of volatility in the crypto market. Any sustained sell-off over the next few months would likely push back the launch date of a Solana ETF, simply due to the lack of investor demand for the product. Moreover, the SEC is unlikely to sign off on much of anything if the crypto market is showing signs of weakness, or if demand dries up for existing crypto ETFs.

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So keep your eye on the overall health of the crypto market, as well as investor inflows into the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. If the trend is positive, then I’m much more bullish on a spot Solana ETF launching in early 2025. And if pro-crypto sentiment gains hold in the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, then I would be even more bullish.

That being said, Solana is a high-risk, high-upside crypto investment. So if you are thinking about investing in Solana, make sure you do your due diligence. Investing in a Solana ETF would help to mitigate some of this risk, but it can’t eliminate the risk of holding Solana entirely.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Cardano, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Avalanche, Bitcoin, Cardano, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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The Last Frontier For Cryptocurrency Adoption

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The Last Frontier For Cryptocurrency Adoption

While studies reveal institutional investors and wealth managers believe tokenized ETFs will drive mainstream market adoption for cryptocurrency, there looms the theft of bad actors that most often go untraceable.

Barriers to the expansion of tokenization are starting to fall as major investment firms consider launching tokenized ETFs, according to new global research by London-based Nickel Digital Asset Management (Nickel), Europe’s leading digital assets hedge fund manager founded by alumni of Bankers Trust, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

Its study with institutional investors (pension funds, insurance asset managers and family offices) and wealth managers at organisations which collectively manage over $14 trillion in assets found almost all (97%) believe the potential launch of tokenized ETFs such as BlackRock’s will be important to the expansion of the sector with nearly one in three (32%) rating the development as very important.

The study also reflected the belief that tokenization will continue to grow, with nearly 70% of respondents believing that fund managers looking to tokenize investment funds and asset classes will increase over the next three years.

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Nickel’s research with firms in the US, UK, Germany, Switzerland, Singapore, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates found growing awareness of the benefits of tokenization. Private markets are seen as offering the greatest potential for tokenization, with almost 70% seeing private equity funds as the asset class with the most opportunity, followed by fixed income (55%) and public equities (42%).

Anatoly Crachilov, CEO and Founding Partner at Nickel Digital, said: “Tokenization is quickly moving from theory to real-world adoption as institutional investors grow more comfortable with its benefits and see major players enter the space. When firms like BlackRock step in, it fundamentally shifts the conversation. This development is timely for our multi-manager vehicle as expanding liquidity depth will allow some of our pods to start trading tokenized assets in the coming months.”

To address potential criminal threat, an advanced detection system to identify and trace blockchain funds connected with criminal activity was presented earlier this week at the Annual CyberASAP Demo Day in London.

The system, called SynapTrack, enables faster and more accurate detection of fraudulent activity using blockchains and cryptocurrencies, where traditional anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing systems struggle to keep pace.

Although current fraud detection methods pick up unusual activity, they deliver an extremely high rate (40%) of false positive reports. These require manual checking by compliance professionals, resulting in backlogs in identifying and acting on suspicious activity.

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The SynapTrack system is designed to deliver a substantially lower rate of false positives. It has already been tested using real-life data from the notorious 2025 Bybit hack, where criminals stole $1.5bn of digital tokens from a cryptocurrency exchange. SynapTrack traced the hacker with 98% accuracy.

The team behind SynapTrack is keen to hear from exchanges, financial regulators or law enforcement agencies who want to test the prototype in real-world conditions.

SynapTrack uses a validated methodology to score the likelihood of transactions being part of a money laundering scheme. It has a self-improving algorithm that continuously adapts to new tactics – dynamically identifying suspicious patterns in blockchain transactions. It has a universal cross-chain capability, and is designed around how compliance teams work, presenting results in a dashboard. No infrastructure changes are needed for installation.

It is relatively easy to obscure fraudulent or criminal activity by moving funds between blockchains, or dispersing them across many blockchains, in what are known as ‘cross-chain’ transactions. It is these transactions that pose the greatest difficulty for existing anti-money laundering systems.

SynapTrack was developed by University of Birmingham computer scientists Dr Pascal Berrang and PhD student Endong Liu, in collaboration with blockchain developer Nimiq. Dr Berrang’s research is in IT security and privacy on blockchain, artificial intelligence and machine learning. The subject of Endong Liu’s PhD is transaction tracing. Nimiq is supporting with blockchain-specific insights, knowledge of real-world constraints, and implementation.

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The team is currently fundraising to ensure regulatory readiness and complete the team with a CEO and software developers.

Dr Berrang said: “The last few years have seen a near-exponential growth in blockchain transactions. While many of these are legitimate, blockchains are attractive to criminals as funds can be moved very quickly to other jurisdictions. Our work with Nimiq and the creation of SynapTrack is addressing this black spot, and will enable more effective regulation, making the whole ecosystem of blockchain safer and more trustworthy.”

With the financial market and cybersecurity industry converging, cryptocurrency is here to stay.

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Bitcoin drops to $63,000 as U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran

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Bitcoin drops to ,000 as U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran

Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $65,000 before pulling back to $64,700 as the Iran conflict continued to escalate through Saturday.

Iranian state media reported at least 70 killed in its Hormozgan province, per Aljazeera, including a strike on an elementary school. Israel activated air raid alerts after detecting fresh missile launches from Iran.

Trump told the Washington Post that “all I want is freedom for the people.” NATO said it was “closely following” developments, China urged an immediate ceasefire, and Turkey offered to mediate.

Bitcoin’s inability to hold $65,000 on the bounce suggests sellers remain in control, but the relative stability given the severity of the headlines points to thin weekend order books rather than active selling pressure.

Headline risks persist for BTC traders as the U.S. day progresses.

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What happened earlier

Earlier in the day, BTC neared $63,000 in Saturday trading after the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, pushing the largest cryptocurrency down roughly 3% in a matter of hours and extending what had already been a difficult weekend for risk assets.
The move brought bitcoin to its lowest level since the Feb. 5 crash, when the token briefly dipped below $60,000.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared an immediate state of emergency across all areas of Israel. A U.S. official confirmed American participation in the strikes, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The sell-off follows a well-established pattern. Bitcoin trades 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, while equity and bond markets are closed on weekends.

That makes it one of the only large, liquid assets available for traders to sell when geopolitical risk spikes outside of traditional market hours.

The result is that bitcoin often acts as a pressure valve for broader risk-off sentiment during weekend events, absorbing selling that would otherwise spread across equities, commodities, and currencies if those markets were open.

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The attack risks a wider regional conflict in one of the most economically sensitive parts of the world, following a month-long U.S. military buildup and failed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

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Better Cryptocurrency to Buy With $5,000 and Hold Forever: XRP vs. Ethereum | The Motley Fool

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Better Cryptocurrency to Buy With ,000 and Hold Forever: XRP vs. Ethereum | The Motley Fool

Both Ethereum (ETH 6.03%) and XRP (XRP 3.76%) are tried-and-tested blockchains which have survived (and sometimes thrived) for years on end. That means they’re both sturdy enough to be candidates for a big investment, like $5,000, and for holding over the very long term, or even forever.

So which of these two leading coins is the better option for a forever hold?

Image source: Getty Images.

Ethereum has more ways to grow

Forever is a long time, especially for an investment in an emerging sector like crypto. Therefore, an asset’s optionality regarding where it can derive growth is a key factor, as today’s growth drivers might peter out and new ones are likely to emerge.

On that front, Ethereum has plenty of options. It already hosts a large decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem worth more than $53 billion today, powered by a massive stablecoin base of $159 billion. That existing base of capital is a strategic asset because it gives developers and financial institutions a reason to build new products right where liquidity already lives. It also gives investors exposure to many possible growth lanes at once, from the onboarding of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) to the development of new settlement rails for payments between AI agents.

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Ethereum Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-6.03%) $-123.58

Current Price

$1924.97

Another advantage is that Ethereum has a track record of consistently shipping large protocol upgrades. The Pectra upgrade, for example, landed on the mainnet in May 2025, followed by the Fusaka upgrade in December. Two similarly large feature packages are expected for 2026, and they should help to build the chain’s ability to scale up without spiking transaction costs.

If you plan to hold an asset indefinitely, this network’s culture of iterative improvement reduces the risk that its technical capabilities will become irrelevant as emerging opportunities for growth arise. Its habit of attracting and retaining substantial capital also helps prevent that outcome.

XRP has to keep winning specific fights over time

XRP is not a bad crypto asset by any means, but its long-term burden is its far narrower positioning than Ethereum.

Ripple, the coin’s issuer, built the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem as a toolkit of financial technologies to support specific workflows in institutional finance, especially cross-border payments and money transfers, and, more recently, the management of tokenized asset capital. The coin’s value is thus derived from the utility of its ledger.

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That focus could pay off if the financial companies the chain targets like what it’s offering, but it also concentrates risk. Financial institutions move cautiously, and winning them over is a slow, grinding process of catering to their needs and building strong relationships. Their technology adoption process can stall for years, even when the product works, and decision-makers broadly want to adopt the new tech.

To Ripple’s credit, the XRP Ledger includes plenty of features that match institutional requirements and seek to minimize their potential pain points. The network’s authorized trust lines, for instance, let tokenized asset issuers whitelist who can hold their issued tokens, which is a feature that supports regulatory constraints around who can legally custody an asset. Similarly, the ledger supports freezing tokens when suspicious activity appears, which is a control that traditional finance teams tend to expect in regulated asset workflows.

XRP Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-3.76%) $-0.05

Current Price

$1.35

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But holding a coin forever is unforgiving of sustained competitive pressure, which XRP doubtlessly faces. Its competitors include fintech companies and other cryptocurrencies, not to mention the internal tech development capabilities of many of its target users in big banks. So it’ll need to continuously one up the other players in its space if it’s going to grow over the long term, and it’s hard to believe that it’ll win every round that counts.

The verdict

The decision here is about resilience and resources.

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Ethereum’s “grizzled veteran” reputation today stems from surviving numerous shifts in user demand patterns while maintaining a large on-chain capital pool and growing it all the while. Its success or failure in any given crypto market segment is not guaranteed, nor was it in the past, but its constant evolution has ensured that failures are not fatal, and also that missed opportunities aren’t very damaging overall.

XRP, on the other hand, is only just starting to scale up its on-chain capital base; it has only $418 million in stablecoins. Furthermore, while it has succeeded in attracting some financial institutions to its chain, the truth is that its growth trajectory has not yet been seriously tested, and is still finding an appropriate product-market fit. Its real competitive challenges have only just begun.

So if you want a coin to buy with $5,000 and hold forever, pick the asset that can win without needing to be perfect: Ethereum. XRP is still a decent long-term hold, assuming it’s part of a diversified crypto portfolio, but it’s riskier.

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