Denver, CO
Cap Analyst Reveals Broncos 3 Worst-Value Contracts of 2024
Last offseason, the Denver Broncos spent quite a bit in free agency. This offseason, the Broncos have been frugal, primarily because of the cash owed to Russell Wilson, who was released before the start of the new league year.
Like any team, the Broncos want to get the most bang for their buck when it comes to veterans, whether they’re players they drafted and then extended or free agents who played for other teams.
In which veterans are the Broncos getting good value, relative to what they’re paid? And in which veterans are the Broncos not getting enough?
I’m going to first examine the three worst-value contracts the Broncos have, based on Over The Cap‘s player valuation for 2023 compared to the salary are set to make.
Keep in mind that a player who doesn’t have a good contract value doesn’t mean he’s bad. It simply means the Broncos didn’t get enough out of the player
relative to what he is expected to make.
2023 OTC valuation: $8.3M
2024 salary: $15M
McGlinchey represented the biggest investment the Broncos made in free agency in 2023. He signed a five-year, $87.5M contract that effectively tied him to the Broncos for three seasons.
McGlinchey’s first season with the team was a mixed bag. While he was a good run blocker, he struggled with pass protection. While some of it could be blamed on quarterback play, plenty of it was his responsibility.
McGlinchey needs to clean up his pass protection issues to justify the investment the Broncos made in him. While improved QB play will help, McGlinchey needs improvement himself.
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2023 OTC valuation: $3.4M
2024 salary: $10M
Jones signed a three-year, $30M contract with the Broncos back in 2022 and played well, though he was solid overall. Still, he might have received more money than expected for a defensive lineman whose strength is in run blocking.
In 2023, Jones didn’t play as well as he did a year earlier. I had thought the Broncos might cut him to save some cash and cap, but the Broncos decided to keep him.
It’s not a given that the Broncos will move on from Jones after training camp, so as he enters the final year of his deal, it would be good to see him bounce back.
2023 OTC valuation: $5.9M
2024 salary: $12M
Powers was another notable free agent signing in 2023. He received $27M fully guaranteed in the four-year, $52M contract he received.
Powers had his ups and downs in the 2023 season. He needs to show more consistency, week to week, to justify the commitment the Broncos made to him.
To be fair, the contract Powers signed didn’t put him in the top tier and looks great when compared to deals handed out to free-agent guards this offseason. But it would be good to see Powers improve and give the Broncos better value out of his contract.
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The Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) dropped from first to second in the NFC North and from the second seed to the seventh seed in the NFC after losing to the Denver Broncos on Sunday.
Significant injuries suffered against the Broncos will mean lasting implications are felt past Sunday. The Packers are also now a long shot to catch the Los Angeles Rams for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and it’ll take a win next Saturday night in Chicago to retake control in the NFC North.
But the Packers are still in a good spot in terms of making the postseason field, especially after the Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys all lost on Sunday.
NFC playoff picture after Week 15
- Los Angeles Rams (11-3, 6-3 vs. NFC)
- Chicago Bears (10-4, 6-3 vs. NFC)
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, 7-3 vs. NFC)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, 5-5 vs. NFC)
- Seattle Seahawks (11-3, 6-3 vs. NFC)
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4, 8-2 vs. NFC)
- Green Bay Packers (9-4-1, 7-2-1 vs. NFC)
Others: Lions (8-6), Panthers (7-7), Cowboys (6-7-1)
According to The Athletic’s NFL playoff simulator, the Packers have a 92 percent chance of making the postseason with three weeks to go. They become all but guaranteed of a playoff spot if they can beat the Bears in Chicago in Week 16. In fact, just one win over the final three weeks could be enough for the Packers to get in.
The NFC North winner looks like a coinflip. The Athletic’s model gives the Packers a 48 percent chance of winning the division right now, and it would go up to 82 percent with a win over the Bears on Saturday. Chicago took down the Cleveland Browns with ease in bitter cold temps at Soldier Field on Sunday.
The Athletic’s model also gives the Packers a 98 percent chance of being the No. 2 seed if Matt LaFleur’s team can win out. That will be much easier said than done without Micah Parsons (and potentially Christian Watson) down the stretch.
Two very possibilities for the Packers: Win the NFC North and host the Bears in the NFC Wild Card Round, or get in as the No. 7 seed and go to Chicago to play the Bears in the NFC Wild Card Round. A third round of the rivalry is increasingly possible in January.
Packers remaining games
Nothing easy here. The Bears, Ravens and Vikings all won Sunday. The Bears and Ravens won comfortably; the Vikings upset the Cowboys — who desperately needed to win — in Dallas. The Bears and Ravens are both playing to win division titles. The Vikings are a dangerously talented spoiler team, and winning at U.S. Bank Stadium is never easy. The Athletic’s model gives the Packers roughly a 40 percent chance of making the postseason even with an 0-3 finish. The Lions are the biggest threat to pass the Packers in the event they finish 0-3.
It appears the Packers can clinch a playoff spot next week with a win over the Bears and a Steelers win over the Lions.
It’s time for the AFC’s #1 team to meet the NFC’s #2. Today the Denver Broncos host the Green Bay Packers in a key late-season inter-conference matchup that could have playoff seeding implications for both teams.
In Denver, the Broncos will be trying to hold on to the top spot in the AFC and keep their impressive win streak rolling. Denver has won ten straight games, some of them in fairly ridiculous fashion, but they sit at 11-2, sharing the top record in the NFL with the New England Patriots, who are just behind them in the playoff picture based on conference record.
The Packers, meanwhile, want to hold on to the lead in the NFC North before they have their rematch with the Chicago Bears next Saturday night. Green Bay sits behind only the Los Angeles Rams in the playoff race in the NFC, and they want to return to the Central time zone with that lead intact.
Join us here at Acme Packing Company to discuss today’s game, and Go Pack Go!
Houston Rockets (16-6, third in the Western Conference) vs. Denver Nuggets (18-6, second in the Western Conference)
Denver; Monday, 9:30 p.m. EST
BOTTOM LINE: Denver hosts Houston looking to end its four-game home slide.
The Nuggets are 13-5 in conference games. Denver averages 125.5 points while outscoring opponents by 9.6 points per game.
The Rockets are 9-5 in Western Conference play. Houston is fifth in the NBA scoring 120.6 points per game while shooting 48.6%.
The Nuggets’ 13.5 made 3-pointers per game this season are only 0.8 more made shots on average than the 12.7 per game the Rockets give up. The Rockets average 120.6 points per game, 4.7 more than the 115.9 the Nuggets give up.
The teams meet for the second time this season. In the last meeting on Nov. 22 the Nuggets won 112-109 led by 34 points from Nikola Jokic, while Reed Sheppard scored 27 points for the Rockets.
TOP PERFORMERS: Jokic is averaging 29.5 points, 12.3 rebounds and 10.9 assists for the Nuggets. Hunter Tyson is averaging 2.0 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games.
Alperen Sengun is averaging 23 points, 9.4 rebounds, seven assists and 1.5 steals for the Rockets. Amen Thompson is averaging 20.0 points over the last 10 games.
LAST 10 GAMES: Nuggets: 7-3, averaging 126.7 points, 41.4 rebounds, 30.3 assists, 5.8 steals and 4.1 blocks per game while shooting 53.1% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 119.8 points per game.
Rockets: 7-3, averaging 115.7 points, 47.2 rebounds, 24.8 assists, 9.3 steals and 5.1 blocks per game while shooting 48.0% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 107.0 points.
INJURIES: Nuggets: Christian Braun: out (ankle), Aaron Gordon: out (hamstring), Julian Strawther: day to day (back).
Rockets: Fred VanVleet: out for season (acl), Dorian Finney-Smith: out (ankle), Tari Eason: out (oblique).
——
The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
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