Dallas, TX
The Cowboys defense is in a strong position entering 2024
It seemed inevitable. There was no way that the Dallas Cowboys could keep it up. The conversation surrounding the team after the 2021 season was that their historic turnover tally would regress to the mean in 2022. Plenty of NFL history to that point supported that claim. This is true for a variety of reasons, but generally because turnovers are a difficult thing for a defense to completely control.
In a literal sense that was proven to be true. The Cowboys defense generated 34 turnovers in 2021 (shout out Trevon Diggs) and did not reach that mark a season later in 2022. The 2022 Dallas Cowboys generated a measly 33 turnovers, if you can believe it.
Amazing was it was, that was clearly an exception to the norm that is football history. Kudos to the now-departed Dan Quinn and the players on the team for upholding that level of consistency in a way that most people have not been able to.
It should come as no surprise to learn that Dallas dipped again in total turnovers in 2023 and generated only 26, although DaRon Bland set the NFL record for the most interceptions returned for a touchdown in the process. While that is technically regression, 26 is still an incredible number. Not quite an exception but it puts the Cowboys of the last three years in some rarified air.
What about year four?
History is not totally against the Cowboys defense continuing to generate turnovers
Personally speaking I have felt like the bottom just had to come out of the Cowboys this year. How could you not?
They have pulled off the impossible (relatively speaking) by continuing to generate so many turnovers, but with Dan Quinn now gone, an incredibly important piece of the puzzle is now different with Mike Zimmer in place. It has felt somewhat inevitable.
Recently I had the chance to sit down with the great Aaron Schatz from FTN Fantasy to discuss a number of things concerning the Cowboys but I wanted to specifically hit on this point. You can watch our entire conversation below.
Thankfully I’d prepped Schatz for this question and he was able to have some information handy that made me feel better about the 2024 Cowboys potentially not falling off of a cliff in this overall department.
If you head to about the eight-minute mark this is where the conversation starts. According to Schatz, there are four teams since 2000 that have ranked in the top five in terms of takeaways per drive for three straight years.
Of the 12 total seasons involved here, 11 featured a playoff appearance from the team involved. The only one here to miss out on the postseason were the 2020 Patriots, although there were obviously a lot of circumstances involved there to say the least. Tom Brady’s defection to Tampa was just one of them.
But on the subject of the Buccaneers, they cashed in on their run with a Super Bowl title in the final season of their three-year stretch. The first Patriots run included a Super Bowl appearance. Neither the second Patriots run or Dallas’ (obviously) included even a conference championship appearance.
What about the years following, though?
The 2003 Buccaneers missed out on the playoffs so the season was a failure in that sense, but defensively they didn’t exactly collapse in the turnover department. They finished sixth in takeaways per drive which is right outside of the top five.
Additionally the 2022 Patriots followed up their run with a sixth-place finish in the metric we are looking at. The sample size is small, but two of the three teams hung right around the same realm in year number four.
Something significant does separate the Cowboys, though. While there has been no turnover at head coach in Mike McCarthy, he was obviously not the architect of what took place defensively for Dallas over the last thousand days. Dan Quinn is out and that will play a role here in a way that the other teams didn’t have affecting them.
Tampa Bay’s defensive coordinator at the time was and remained Monte Kiffin (this whole exercise is just so much fun, isn’t it) and Bill Belichick was at the helm for all of the Patriots seasons involved. It goes without saying that there is immense pressure on Mike Zimmer to uphold the standard, but history is technically on his side which is encouraging.
Dallas, TX
Game Day Guide: Stars at Wild | Dallas Stars
First Shift 🏒
For the past four regular seasons, the Stars have the best road record in the NHL.
Through 164 games, Dallas tops the league with a .655 points percentage away from home. It also leads in goals per game at 3.40 and in GAA at 2.70. That spans two different head coaches and several different players, but there is a culture that the team hopes to tap into Wednesday when the best-of-seven playoff series moves to Minnesota for Game 3.
“You have to be able to play on the road,” said Stars coach Glen Gulutzan. “Since my time here, our guys feel really comfortable.”
The Stars were tied for second in road points percentage this season at .683, so an actual improvement over their previous average. They were third in GAA at 2.73 and sixth in scoring at 3.41, so the league has improved. That said, the new coaching staff has also embraced a sound road strategy.
Like Pete DeBoer before him, Gulutzan doesn’t worry too much about matching lines – at home or on the road. The road matching can create some real gymnastics, as the home team gets second change. But the fact that a team chooses not to chase that part of the game.
“That’s why you program your guys to play in those situations and not yank them off every time something happens,” Gulutzan said. “That way they have the confidence to play in all of those situations.”
The Stars coach did make some tweaks after a disappointing team performance in Game 1. Arttu Hyry jumped in for Adam Erne and played center on a line with Jamie Benn and Sam Steel. The right-handed Hyry was a solid complement to lefties Steel and Benn. That allowed Hryckowian to move up to the top line in place of Steel. The left-handed Hryckowian is good balance to right-handed center Johnston.
Again, when you have those options, you are comfortable with whatever line is on the ice.
“I like our combinations right now,” Gulutzan said. “One of the things you worry about is the hands of your centermen, and on each line we have a righty and a lefty that are more than capable. Plus, all of the guys know their systems and their jobs, and they’ve been doing it all year.”
The Stars have had several injuries this season to key players, and that means everyone has played everywhere with everyone else. That’s big this time of year.
“I definitely think that helps,” said Colin Blackwell. “It just makes everything flow. If the coaches shuffle things up, you usually land with someone you have played with before.”
And that means playing on the road isn’t as difficult. The biggest challenge might be fact that Minnesota will be fired up by its home crowd and will be looking to make a point about grievances they perceived in Game 2.
“I don’t know if we need a bulletin board,” Gulutzan said when asked about the Wild making “bulletin board” statements Monday. “We’re just going to keep doing what we’re doing and grind this thing to where we need it to go.”
Dallas, TX
The Brandon Aubrey Deal | DZTV
The Dumb Zone hosts analyze the record-breaking contract extension for Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey, critiquing the team’s media narrative regarding the negotiations and debating the kicker’s value in a “fourth-down revolution” era.
Dallas, TX
Johnston scores twice, Stars hold off Wild in Game 2 to even West 1st Round | NHL.com
Johnston gave the Stars a 1-0 lead at 8:58 of the first period. His slap shot from above the right face-off circle deflected off Wild forward Danila Yurov and then bounced off the end boards and in off Wallstedt’s left arm.
“I’ve had a goal like that go in on me, too, that’s a tough bounce,” Oettinger said. “Like I said in Game 1, we got some bad bounces. We got a nice bounce there. We had one where I was behind the net, and the guy was shooting it in the net and our (defense) stopped it, so we got some good bounces. The way we played the last 40 minutes of the game, I think, didn’t give up much, had a ton of good chances offensively. The power play, we got looks and our (penalty kill) was great. If we kind of build off the game that we played the last 40 minutes, I think we should feel very good for the next few games.”
Faber tied it 1-1 at 11:33. He took a pass from Hughes, skated around Robertson in the left circle and cut to the slot, where his wrist shot ramped up and in off Oettinger.
Duchene put the Stars back up 2-1 with a power-play goal at 4:02 of the second period. Mikko Rantanen gained the offensive zone along the right boards and sent a backhand pass to Duchene, who snapped the puck between Wallstedt’s pads from in front.
Robertson made it 3-1 at 7:09 of the third period when he tipped Lundkvist’s wrist shot from the blue line past the right pad of Wallstedt.
“I think we got to do a better job, I mean, the odd-man’s, right? I thought we played a really good game. Probably their best game, you know, meaningful game. And, yeah, we didn’t get fazed by it. Was really good by us. Just got to be smarter in some areas, and we get to go back home and in front of our crowd,” Minnesota forward Marcus Foligno said. “They want (penalties). I mean, they’re looking to play 5-on-4. I mean, that’s their game. They can’t hang with us 5-on-5. We got to just be smarter, and myself included. But it’s a heated game out there. You’re gonna have emotional swings and learn from it. We got a split series.”
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