President Donald Trump congratulated conservative attorney and businessman Abelardo de la Espriella on becoming president of Colombia Monday at the White House. Yet while he holds a slim lead and is the favorite to win over left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda, authorities have yet to officially certify the result.

With 99.9% of votes counted, de la Espriella led with 49.7% to Cepeda’s 48.7%. De la Espriella, known to his supporters as “El Tigre,” dominated in the country’s mountainous interior and the vote-rich state of Antioquia, while Cepeda won in the capital Bogotá and performed well in coastal regions, following trends of recent presidential elections.

Cepeda has challenged the results, citing irregularities at thousands of polling stations. Nonetheless, overturning the election would be unprecedented in Colombian history.

If de la Espriella does hold out, it will mirror a continent-wide rightward shift seen in recent electoral results in Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Peru, where conservative Keiko Fujimori appears poised to win the presidency.

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Donald Trump congratulated de la Espriella during a signing at the White House on Monday. Trump told reporters that, “He called me last night, and he thanked me for the endorsement. He won. He won the election.” In response to a question on relations between the U.S. and Colombia, Trump asserted that things would be “Much better. It’ll be better. He’s going to be a great president.”

The election featured two candidates representing polar opposites of the Colombian political spectrum. De la Espriella, known as ‘El Tigre’ by his supporters, has enjoyed the enthusiastic backing of Donald Trump, promised a return to the law-and-order approach of former President Alvaro Uribe, and pledged an aggressive military campaign against guerrilla groups and criminal organizations, while Cepeda vowed to continue the negotiation-based strategy of Petro, a longtime political ally.

Ivan Cepeda is a longtime figure on the Colombian left, and served as senator for 12 years, following a four-year stint in the Chamber of Representatives. His father, Manuel Cepeda, was a prominent figure in the Colombian Communist Party, and was assassinated in 1994 during a particularly bloody era in Colombia’s internal conflict.

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The first round of the election, held on May 31, saw de la Espriella win 43.7% of the vote, to Cepeda’s 40.9%, with right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia placing a distant third, at 6.9%.

On Sunday evening, Secretary of State Marco Rubio congratulated de la Espriella on the result, saying, “The Trump Administration looks forward to working closely with your incoming administration to advance regional security cooperation, end illegal immigration to the United States.”

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While the issues driving American and Colombian politics remain considerably distinct, de la Espriella’s insurgent outsider campaign emulated Trump’s in many ways, particularly in the sense that neither held elected nor appointed office prior to winning the presidency, launching successful campaigns almost entirely outside the existing party structure.

The defining safety and security issue set de la Espriella on a winning course, as he honed something of a strongman image to forcefully critique the Petro administration’s policy of peace through negotiation with armed groups in opposition to the Colombian government.

It is widely believed that Petro’s negotiation-based approach and restraint with respect to military action has allowed such groups as the ELN (National Liberation Army), and various dissident elements of the FARC to regroup, boost recruitment and regain control of key territory and drug trafficking routes.

De la Espriella promised a return to an aggressive military campaign to reclaim territory from terrorist groups and cartels, and pledged to build “mega-prisons”, citing the policies of El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele as a model for eradicating criminal groups.

A de la Espriella administration will also likely mark a return to free-market economics, decreased governmental intervention in the economy, and a renewed push to lower taxes.

A strengthened U.S.-Colombia relationship is also a certainty, following an era of considerable tensions between Petro and Trump, which led to a series of acrimonious social media exchanges. Historically, Colombia was the U.S.’ strongest ally in the region, but the relationship has weakened considerably under the tenure of Petro.

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Political analysts will also be closely watching the dynamic between Colombia and Venezuela.  De la Espriella is likely to follow the Trump administration’s lead in Bogotá’s approach to the new Delcy Rodriguez administration, demanding a timeline for free and fair elections, and calling on the Venezuelan government to aggressively pursue the ELN Marxist guerrilla group in border regions where it has long sought refuge, and had an allegedly close relationship with former dictator Nicolás Maduro.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Belgium has issued visas to a Taliban delegation to attend a migration meeting in Brussels, paving the way for the first visit by Taliban representatives to an EU-hosted event since the group returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021.

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The planned talks have already sparked criticism from human rights organisations, which argue that engaging with the Taliban risks undermining the European Union’s commitment to human rights.

However, the Belgian government said it approved five visas for members of the delegation after security assessments found no evidence that the individuals posed a threat. The visas are tightly restricted, allowing entry only to Belgium, not the wider Schengen Area, and are valid for a single day.

Belgian officials have refused to disclose the exact date of the visit, citing security concerns. However, EU sources say the meeting was expected to take place shortly after the visas were issued.

What will the talks focus on?

According to European officials, the discussions will focus on migration and the possible return of Afghan nationals who do not have the right to remain in the European Union. In May, the European Commission announced its “intention to invite Taliban officials to Brussels in the near future for discussions concerning the return of migrants to Afghanistan.”

The European Commission has stressed that the meeting is being held at a technical level and does not amount to formal recognition of the Taliban government. EU officials have repeatedly said the talks are intended to address practical migration issues rather than diplomatic relations with Afghanistan’s rulers.

The issue remains highly sensitive because the Taliban have faced widespread international criticism since regaining power. They imposed severe restrictions on women and girls, including limits on education, employment and freedom of movement.

Human rights groups have been urging the EU to cancel the meeting altogether. Organisations including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International argue that any engagement with the Taliban should focus on accountability and human rights rather than facilitating deportations to a country they describe as increasingly dangerous.

The controversy has also revealed divisions within Belgium itself. Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot said he opposed inviting Taliban representatives to Brussels, but argued that Belgium could not refuse the visas because it hosts the EU’s institutions and was acting on a request linked to official European business.

The talks come as European governments face growing pressure to tighten migration policies. While Afghans remain among the nationalities most likely to receive asylum protection in the EU, several member states have pushed for stricter migration controls and greater cooperation on returns for people whose applications have been rejected.

Afghanistan is currently facing a humanitarian crisis. According to the United Nations, millions of Afghans face food insecurity and economic hardship, while the country is also absorbing large numbers of returnees from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan.