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State of the Race: Six key Senate seats Republicans look to flip in 2024

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State of the Race: Six key Senate seats Republicans look to flip in 2024

Republicans are gearing up for what could be an epic showdown for majority control of the Senate with several contentious elections around the country later this year.

Democrats control the U.S. Senate with a 51-49 majority, but Republicans are looking at a favorable Senate map in 2024, with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs. Three of those seats are in red states former Donald Trump carried in 2020 — West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

Five other seats, one of which is held by an independent, are in key swing states narrowly carried by President Biden in 2020 — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Texas and Florida, where incumbents Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, respectively, are seeking re-election, appear to be the only potentially competitive GOP-held seats up for grabs next year.

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‘TOUGHEST UPHILL CLIMB’: RACE FORECASTER REVEALS SHIFT TOWARD GOP IN TOP 2024 SENATE RACE

From left to right: Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy; Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.; Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc.; Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio; Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake; and Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick. (Getty Images)

Ohio

Longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is the only member of his party to win a non-judicial, statewide election in Ohio in the past decade. As Brown runs in 2024 for a fourth six-year term representing Ohio, he is facing heavy targeting by Republicans in the state that was once a premier general election battleground but has shifted red over the past six years.

Trump carried Ohio by eight points in his 2016 presidential election victory and his 2020 re-election defeat. Last year, Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate in Ohio, Sen. JD Vance, topped longtime Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by six points despite Ryan running what political experts considered a nearly flawless campaign.

Brown, who has served as a congressman, state lawmaker and Ohio secretary of state during his nearly half-century career in politics, has reportedly raked in $5.7 million in the first two months of 2024, giving his campaign $13.5 million on hand.

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Two Republicans who ran unsuccessfully against Vance for the 2022 GOP Senate nomination in Ohio — state Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno — are in the race to oust Brown.

Dolan, a former top county prosecutor and Ohio assistant attorney general, launched his campaign in January 2023. Dolan, whose family owns Major League Baseball’s Cleveland Guardians, shelled out millions of his own money to run ads for his 2022 Senate bid.

He surged near the end of the primary race, finishing third in a crowded field of Republican contenders, winning nearly a quarter of the vote.

Moreno, a successful Cleveland-based businessman and luxury auto dealership magnate, declared his candidacy in April. An immigrant who arrived in the U.S. legally from Colombia with his family as a 5-year-old boy, Moreno also shelled out millions of his own money to run TV commercials to try and boost his first Senate bid. But he suspended his campaign in February 2022 after requesting and holding a private meeting with Trump.

In July, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose joined the race, launching a much-anticipated Senate campaign. The state’s primary election is scheduled for March 19.

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Ohio GOP Senate candidates Matt Dolan, Frank LaRose and Bernie Moreno are vying for their party’s nomination in the state’s March 19 primary. (AP)

Montana

Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when Sen. Jon Tester of Montana announced earlier this year that he would seek re-election in 2024 in a state Trump carried by 16 points in the 2020 presidential election. The Democratic incumbent, who’s running unopposed, had hauled in a formidable $15 million in fundraising as of the end of 2023.

Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient who notched more than 200 missions in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere around the globe, launched a Republican Senate bid in late June.

Sheehy, the CEO of Bridger Aerospace, a Montana-based aerial firefighting and wildfire surveillance services company, enjoys the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) backing and received an endorsement from Trump last month.

Sheehy will face off against four other GOP hopefuls, including former Montana Secretary of State Brad Johnson, in the state’s June 4 primary election.

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Rep. Matt Rosendale, a hard-right congressman, had initially launched a bid for the Senate seat before withdrawing from the race.

Following his withdrawal, Rosendale, who narrowly lost to Tester in the 2018 Senate election, said he would seek re-election in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District. That plan, however, was halted last week when Rosendale announced he was suspending his House campaign, citing “current attacks” against him.

The campaign for Tester, who’s running unopposed, announced it had hauled in $15 million at the end of 2023. (Getty Images )

West Virginia

With Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., not seeking re-election, the race for the Senate in West Virginia is looking brighter for Republicans as they seek to flip the seat from blue to red.

Last year, NRSC Chairman Sen. Steve Daines said, “We like our odds in West Virginia.”

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Right now, the main action is in the Republican Senate primary, where popular Democrat-turned-Republican Gov. Jim Justice has the backing of the NRSC and Trump. Among Justice’s six Republican challengers, the leading rival for the GOP Senate nomination is GOP Rep. Alex Mooney, who represents the state’s 2nd Congressional District and has received support from the fiscally conservative Club for Growth.

The first Democrat to jump into the race following Manchin’s departure was 32-year-old Zachary Shrewsbury, a native West Virginian and Marine Corps veteran. Two other Democrats — Don Blankenship and Glenn Elliott — are also running.

Manchin announced in November he would not be seeking re-election to his post in the upper chamber, saying in a video posted to X he believes he “accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia” during his tenure in the Senate. Manchin, who previously served as governor of the state, was first elected to the Senate to represent West Virginia in a 2010 special election.

The state’s primary election is slated to take place May 14.

Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., left, and Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, right. (Getty/AP Photo/Chris Jackson)

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Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., is looking to retain her post in the upper chamber and clinch a third term in office.

Baldwin, who announced her candidacy in the race last April, has represented the Badger State in the Senate since 2013. She previously served in the Wisconsin State Assembly and represented the state’s 2nd Congressional District in the House from 1999 to 2013.

Running unopposed, Baldwin has received strong support from her party on a state and national level. However, Republicans are eager to make an attempt to win the seat this cycle.

GOP businessman and real estate mogul Eric Hovde launched his bid for the Senate in February and quickly became a target for Democrats as the party seeks to maintain control of the seat.

The Senate Majority PAC went up with a $2 million ad buy last week targeting Hovde as a “multi-millionaire California banker.” The ad attempted to portray Hovde as an “out-of-touch carpetbagger” whose interests don’t align with those of the Wisconsin constituency.

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Recognizing the ad campaign, Mike Berg, the communications director for the NRSC, wrote on X: “How bad are @TammyBaldwin and @SenSchumer panicking about @EricHovde?”

Hovde previously ran in 2012 but lost in the GOP primary to former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Baldwin went on to win the general election that year.

Hovde formally launched his bid for the U.S. Senate in February. (Eric Hovde campaign)

Arizona

With Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s announcement that she won’t seek re-election, the spotlight for the Senate race in the battleground state of Arizona has shifted to two prominent candidates — Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat who represents the state’s 3rd Congressional District, and Republican Kari Lake, who previously made a run for governor of the state in 2022.

It was reported earlier this year that Gallego, the top Democrat seeking the Senate seat, had raised $3.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Since launching his bid for the seat in January 2023, Gallego’s campaign reported raising $13 million earlier this year.

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Lake, a former TV news anchor who has been endorsed by several leading Senate Republicans and Trump, instantly became the GOP frontrunner when she jumped into the race last October.

Politico reported in January that Lake had “raised $2 million in the roughly 11 weeks after she entered the race, but she quickly spent nearly half that haul,” leaving her with a “little over $1 million in the bank — and $308,000 in debt” to start 2024.

Prior to Lake entering the race, Mark Lamb, a Republican who serves as sheriff for Pinal County, filed paperwork to run for the seat last April. Seven other Republicans are also seeking their party’s nomination for the seat in the state’s July 30 primary election.

From left to right: Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb; Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.; Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz.; and former Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. (Getty Images)

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State, a perennial general election battleground, will likely live up to its reputation once again in 2024 as it holds what will arguably be one of the most competitive and expensive Senate races in the country.

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Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat who served a decade as the state’s auditor general and then treasurer before first winning election to the Senate in 2006, is seeking a fourth six-year term in office.

Casey, who is not expected to face any serious Democratic primary challenge, is the son of a popular former governor.

Republicans appear united behind Dave McCormick, who is making his second straight Senate run. McCormick narrowly lost the state’s 2022 GOP Senate primary election to Dr. Mehmet Oz, who went on to lose in the general election to former Braddock Mayor John Fetterman.

McCormick, a former hedge fund executive, West Point graduate, Gulf War combat veteran and Treasury Department official in former President George W. Bush’s administration, was endorsed by the Pennsylvania GOP in late September, soon after he entered the race.

Casey, a Democrat who first won election to the Senate in 2006, is seeking a fourth six-year term in office. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

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Axios reported in January that McCormick had raised $5.4 million in his first quarter as a candidate. Casey’s campaign announced at the beginning of the year that it had raised more than $3.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

McCormick had been courted by national and state Republicans to run, and his candidacy gives the GOP a high-profile candidate with the ability to finance his own race.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

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Video: President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

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Video: President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

new video loaded: President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

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President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

President Trump fired Kristi Noem, his embattled homeland security secretary, on Thursday and announced his plans to replace her with Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma.

“The fact that you can’t admit to a mistake which looks like under investigation is going to prove that Ms. Good and Mr. Pretti probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back. Law enforcement needs to learn from that. You don’t protect them by not looking after the facts.” “Our greatness calls people to us for a chance to prosper, to live how they choose, to become part of something special. Anyone who searches for freedom can always find a home here. But that freedom is a precious thing, and we defend it vigorously. You crossed the border illegally — we’ll find you. Break our laws — we’ll punish you.” “Did you bid out those service contracts?” “Yes they did. They went out to a competitive bid.” “I’m asking you — sorry to interrupt — but the president approved ahead of time you spending $220 million running TV ads across the country in which you are featured prominently?” “Yes, sir. We went through the legal processes. Did it correctly —” Did the president know you were going to do this?” “Yes.” “I’m more excited about just ready to get started. There’s a lot of work we can do to get the Department of Homeland Security working for the American people.”

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President Trump fired Kristi Noem, his embattled homeland security secretary, on Thursday and announced his plans to replace her with Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma.

By Jackeline Luna

March 5, 2026

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DOJ continues Biden autopen probe despite former president unlikely to face charges

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DOJ continues Biden autopen probe despite former president unlikely to face charges

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The Department of Justice (DOJ) is continuing its investigation into former President Joe Biden’s use of an autopen in the final months of his administration — focusing on pardons and commutations — though a senior official said Biden is unlikely to face criminal exposure.

A senior DOJ official told Fox News the autopen investigation is ongoing and not closed, adding investigators are reviewing clemency actions taken in the final months of the Biden administration.

The official also pointed out, however, that the use of an autopen by a sitting president is “established law.”

The issue under review is whether the autopen was used in violation of the law, specifically, whether Biden personally approved each name included on pardon and commutation lists.

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A framed portrait shows former President Joe Biden’s signature and an autopen along “The Presidential Walk of Fame” outside the Oval Office of the White House.  (Andrew Harnick/Getty Images)

“These types of cases are tough. Executive privilege issues come into play,” the official said.

What is also clear, the official indicated, is that the target of any potential prosecution would not likely be Biden.

“It’s hard to imagine how [Biden] could be criminally liable for pardon power,” the senior DOJ official said.

BIDEN’S AUTOPEN PARDONS DISTURBED DOJ BRASS, DOCS SHOW, RAISING QUESTIONS WHETHER THEY ARE LEGALLY BINDING

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The use of the autopen by former President Joe Biden remains under investigation. (AP Photo)

The official noted that one reason the former president would be unlikely to face charges stems from a 2024 Supreme Court ruling that originally involved current President Donald Trump but would also apply to Biden.

“We conclude that under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power requires that a former President have some immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts during his tenure in office,” the Supreme Court ruled in Trump v. United States in 2024. 

“At least with respect to the President’s exercise of his core constitutional powers, this immunity must be absolute.”

Sources familiar with the matter told Fox News Digital that U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s team continues to review the Biden White House’s reliance on an autopen, contradicting a recent New York Times report that indicated the investigation had been paused.

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DOJ SIGNALS IT’S STILL DIGGING INTO BIDEN AUTOPEN USE DESPITE REPORTS PROBE FIZZLED

President Donald Trump has pushed for consequences for former President Joe Biden’s alleged use of the autopen. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP Photo)

Trump has pushed for consequences over the autopen controversy, alleging on social media that aides acted unlawfully in its use and raising the prospect of perjury charges against Biden.

Biden has rejected those claims, saying in a statement last year he personally directed the decisions in question.

“Let me be clear: I made the decisions during my presidency,” Biden said. “I made the decisions about the pardons, executive orders, legislation and proclamations. Any suggestion that I didn’t is ridiculous and false.”

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The House Oversight Committee has homed in on Biden’s clemency actions, including five controversial pardons for family members in the final days of his presidency, citing what it described as a lack of “contemporaneous documentation” confirming that Biden directly ordered the pardons.

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The committee asked the DOJ to investigate “all of former President Biden’s executive actions, particularly clemency actions, to assess whether legal action must be taken to void any action that the former president did not, in fact, take himself.”

Fox News Digital’s Ashley Oliver contributed to this report.

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Anxiety grows among California Democrats as gubernatorial candidates rebuff calls to drop out

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Anxiety grows among California Democrats as gubernatorial candidates rebuff calls to drop out

Despite a plea from the head of the California Democratic Party for underperforming candidates to drop out of the governor’s race, all but one of the party’s top hopefuls spurned the request.

Party leaders fear the growing possibility that the crowded field will split the Democratic electorate in the state’s June top-two primary election and result in two Republicans advancing to the November ballot, ensuring a Republican governor being elected for the first time since 2006.

His advice largely unheeded, state party Chairman Rusty Hicks on Thursday said the fate of a Democratic victory now rests squarely on the gubernatorial candidates who flouted him.

“The candidates for Governor now have a chance to showcase a viable path to win,” Hicks said in a statement Thursday.

Eight top Democratic candidates filed the official paperwork to appear on the June ballot after Hicks released a letter on Tuesday urging those “who cannot show meaningful progress towards winning” to drop out. Friday is the deadline to file to appear on the primary election ballot. On March 21, the secretary of state’s office will formally announce who will appear on the June ballot.

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“It sounded like someone who has his head in the sand,” former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said of Hicks’ open letter. “[Most] of us filed within 24 hours of getting that letter. It created some press but not much else. It didn’t impact [most] of the candidates and it certainly didn’t impact my candidacy.”

Democratic strategist Elizabeth Ashford said it was appropriate for Hicks and other Democratic leaders to make a public plea as opposed to keeping such discussions solely behind closed doors.

But the response showed the limited power of the modern-day party bosses.

“It’s definitely not Tammany Hall,” said Ashford, referring to the storied Democratic political machine that had a grip on New York City politics for nearly a century. “The party and Rusty are influential and they are helpful and that is their role. I don’t think anyone would be comfortable with outright public strong-arming of specific candidates.”

Ashford, who worked for former Govs. Jerry Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger, along with former Vice President Kamala Harris when she served as state attorney general, added that the minimal power of the state GOP is likely a factor in the dynamics of Democrats’ decision to stay in the race. Democratic registered voters outnumber Republicans by almost a 2-to-1 margin in the state, and Democrats control every statewide elected office and hold supermajorities in both chambers of the California Legislature.

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“If there were a strong viable opposition that existed, if the Republican Party was actually relevant in California, I think that would sort of force greater unity amongst Democrats,” she said.

Just one of the nine major Democrats did heed the party chair’s message. Ian Calderon, a former Los Angeles-area Assemblyman who consistently polled near the bottom of the field, withdrew from the race and endorsed Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin) on Thursday.

Candidates cannot withdraw their name from the ballot once they officially file to run for office, leading to some fears that even if other candidates drop out of the race, a crowded primary ballot could still split California’s liberal votes.

“I’m disappointed most of them will be on the ballot,” said Lorena Gonzalez, the head of the California Federation of Labor Unions, which will announce whether it endorses in the governor’s race on March 16. But “I do still think you can have people drop out of the race or become viable. I think that there are candidates who know viability is a real thing they have to show in coming weeks” before ballots start being mailed to voters.

Jodi Hicks, chief executive and president of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, said she is “still worried” about the prospect of two Republicans winning the top two spots in the June primary, shutting Democrats out of any chance of winning the governor’s office in November.

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“I didn’t have any specifics of who I wanted to do what,” she said. “I’m just very, very concerned and the stakes are really high right now and seem to be getting worse by the day.”

Republican candidate Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, said he is “confident that I’ll be in the top two” along with a Democratic candidate. “I find it very difficult to believe that the Democratic Party will just surrender California and allow two Republicans to be in the top two.”

Hilton made the comments Thursday after a gubernatorial forum in Sacramento hosted by the California Assn. of Realtors focused on housing and homeownership. Villaraigosa, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Rep. Katie Porter also attended. Swalwell, who is currently in Washington, joined the panel virtually.

During the panel, candidates were in broad agreement about the need to reduce barriers and costs in order to build more housing in California, where the median single-family home costs more than $820,000. Many also endorsed proposals to disincentivize private investment firms from buying up homes as well as a $25-billion bond proposed by former Sen. Bob Hertzberg to help first-time homebuyers afford a down payment.

“This really isn’t a debate because we’re agreeing so much with each other,” Hilton said at one point during the event.

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That political alignment on one of the most pressing issues facing California may explain why voters are having such a difficult time deciding who to support.

A recent poll of the Public Policy Institute of California found that the five candidates topping the crowded field were within 4 percentage points of one another: Porter, Swalwell, Hilton, Democratic hedge fund founder Tom Steyer and Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Earlier polls had Hilton and Bianco leading the field, though many voters remained undecided.

Some candidates took issue with Hicks’ push to cull the field, noting that most of the lower-polling candidates he asked to drop out are people of color.

“Our political system is rigged, corrupted by the political elites, the wealthy and well connected,” state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, who is Black and Latino, said in a video posted on social media in response to the open letter. “The California Democratic Party is essentially telling every person of color in the race for Governor to drop out.”

Villaraigosa argued that enough voters remain undecided that it was too early for quality candidates to call it quits.

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“Most people don’t even know who’s in the race,” said Villaraigosa. “It’s premature to be thinking about getting out of the race. I certainly am not considering it and I feel no pressure.”

Aside from the opinion polls, other indicators on who may emerge from the pack a candidates are slowly emerging.

Though it wasn’t enough to win the party’s endorsement, Swalwell won support from 24% of delegates at the state Democratic convention last month, the most of any party candidate.

While spending is no guarantee of success, Steyer has donated $47.4 million of his own wealth to his campaign. Mahan, who recently entered the race and is supported by Silicon Valley leaders, has quickly raised millions of dollars, as have two independent expenditures committees backing his bid.

Ashford said part of candidates’ decisions to remain in the race could have been driven by their lengthy political careers, as well as Democrats’ crushing November redistricting victory.

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“In several cases, these are people who have won statewide office,” she said. “It’s tough to feel like there may not be a sequel to that.”

Nixon reported from Sacramento and Mehta from Los Angeles.

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