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Super Tuesday and UK Budget, Israel-Hamas war passes milestone

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Super Tuesday and UK Budget, Israel-Hamas war passes milestone

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

US presidential election primary season reaches a peak this week, as delegates in 15 states vote for Republican and Democrat candidates on Super Tuesday. Will this be the moment when Nikki Haley stands down? You can get the latest polling data and news by subscribing to the excellent new US Election Countdown newsletter, delivered to your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday by clicking here. If you want more beamed to your digital device, sign up to the US election channel on WhatsApp.

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Another key question for Tuesday’s polling day is how much the unrest in the Hamas-Israel conflict — which passes its 150th day of fighting this week — will affect the Democrat vote for President Joe Biden. As my colleagues on the ground, Lauren Fedor and James Politi, note, the backlash over Gaza has also thrust foreign policy into the heart of the race for the White House. Hopes last week of a ceasefire deal ahead of the start of Ramadan this coming Sunday — or for that matter Biden’s State of the Union address on Thursday — have fizzled. Can Biden resurrect talks to end the fighting?

Wednesday is the Spring Budget, a prominent entry in the UK news diary and a classic piece of British political theatre for the rest of us. Star of the show will be chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who delivers his speech to parliament, outlining future tax and spending plans, at 12:30pm London time. The pressure is on for Hunt because it is likely to be the last big set-piece fiscal event for the Conservative government ahead of the general election. Expect tax giveaways. Click here for comprehensive FT updates on the day.

Talking of big political set pieces, they don’t come much bigger (in attendance numbers at least) than China’s National People’s Congress, which holds its annual session starting on Tuesday. Thousands of delegates will be descending on Beijing to be told, among other things, the country’s new growth projections for the year ahead. The pressure is on President Xi Jinping to introduce stronger measures to revive the world’s second-largest economy to previous levels of expansion, especially after lacklustre figures for factory output released last week.

Talking of economics, we have a lot of central bankers giving speeches this week, continuing 2024’s ongoing debate on when interest rates can fall. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell will on Thursday update Congress on monetary policy, while across the Atlantic European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde will reveal the latest interest rate decision.

After a quiet start to the week for earnings, the results calls will pick up during the coming few days with insurance a strong theme in the UK as Aviva, Legal & General, Hiscox and Royal London report figures.

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The week ends with voting again, this time for Portugal’s parliamentary election, which has been made a whole lot more interesting by the entrance of a far-right former football pundit.

One more thing . . . 

Or should I say, and the winner is . . . Prepare yourself for Oscars night next Sunday. This is not the only awards show in the diary, however. The Moules household will instead be following the other gala ceremony marked by ego clashes, tearful failures and big audience figures: yes, I’m talking about the Crufts dog show, which opens in Birmingham on Thursday.

A playful chocolate Labrador puppy arrived as the first Moules family pet a few weeks ago and I am therefore now in awe of anyone who can train any canine to the standard of Best in Show.

Your dog-rearing tips, as well as comments about your priorities for the next seven days, will be gratefully received. Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from you inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

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Monday

  • Samir Shah begins a four-year tenure as the chair of the BBC, taking over from acting chair Dame Elan Closs Stephens who stepped in following Richard Sharp’s resignation in April 2023

  • Results: Clarksons FY, GlobalData FY

Tuesday

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at FIN/SUM event in Tokyo

  • US Federal Reserve board vice-chair Michael Barr speaks at the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference in Portland, Oregon

  • British technology company Nothing launches its Phone (2a) smartphone in London

  • China, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/Caixin/HCOB February services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

  • South Korea: preliminary Q4 GDP figures (AM local time)

  • UK: HM Treasury publishes data on official holdings of international reserves. Also, BRC-KPMG February Retail Sales Monitor.

  • US: February factory orders data

  • Results: Ashtead Q3, Bakkavor FY, Bayer FY, Brembo FY, Foxtons FY, Fresnillo FY, Greggs FY, Hiscox FY, Inchcape FY, IWG FY, Johnson Service Group FY, Keller FY, Reach FY, Ross Stores Q4, SIG FY, STV Group FY, Target Corp Q4, Thales FY, TKH Group FY, Travis Perkins FY

Wednesday

  • Australia: Q4 GDP figures

  • Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision

  • Germany: February trade balance figures

  • South Korea: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data (AM local time)

  • UK: S&P Global February construction PMI data

  • US: Federal Reserve Beige Book

  • Results: AIB Group FY, Breedon FY, Brown-Forman Q3, Campbell Soup Company Q2, Capita FY, CLS Holdings FY, ConvaTec FY, DS Smith Q3 trading update, Galliford Try HY, Ibstock FY, Legal & General FY, Netcall HY, Nichols FY, Quilter FY, Rathbones FY, Ricardo HY, Spirent Communications FY, Tullow Oil FY

Thursday

  • European Commission deadline date for Big Tech companies designated as gatekeepers — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta and Microsoft — to ensure full compliance with the Digital Markets Act obligations for each of their designated core platform services

  • EU: European Central Bank interest rate announcement

  • UK: February Halifax House Price Index

  • US: Federal Reserve Board chair Jay Powell presents the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing in Washington

  • Results: Admiral Group FY, Aviva FY, Beazley FY, Broadcom Q1, Brooks Macdonald HY, Costco Wholesale Q2, Darktrace FY, Elementis FY, Entain FY, Funding Circle FY, Grafton FY, ITV FY, Kier HY, Kroger Q4, Lufthansa FY, Melrose Industries FY, PageGroup FY, Rentokil Initial FY, Robert Walters FY, TT Electronics FY, Vivendi FY

Friday

  • Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler speaks at the Investment Adviser Compliance Conference in Washington

  • Canada: February unemployment rate

  • EU: revised Q4 GDP figures and Q4 eurozone employment data

  • Germany: February industrial production data

  • Japan: trade balance data (AM local time)

  • US: February employment report

  • Results: Informa FY, Royal London FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • 150th day of Hamas-Israel conflict in Gaza

  • Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosts a special summit in Melbourne with leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to commemorate 50 years of dialogue between Australia and Asean

  • UK: 200th anniversary of the Royal National Lifeboat Institution

  • US: North Dakota Republican party presidential caucus

Tuesday

  • China: National People’s Congress annual session for the country’s top legislature opens in Beijing

  • Czech Republic: French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Prague

  • Russia: 71st anniversary of Joseph Stalin’s death. Communists traditionally lay flowers at the site of the Soviet leader’s grave in the Kremlin walls

  • US: Super Tuesday for the presidential primary elections, with voting taking place in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia and the Alaska Republican party.

Wednesday

  • Belize: municipal elections

  • EU: the European People’s party, the centre-right grouping ahead in polls for June’s EU elections, begins its congress in Bucharest, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen due to be named as its candidate

  • UK: Spring Budget speech by chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Linked to this, the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its economic forecast. Click here for full coverage from the FT

  • US: Ryan Salame, a former senior lieutenant to FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, is due to be sentenced after pleading guilty to two conspiracy counts last September

Thursday

  • UK: Crufts, featuring 24,000 dogs competing for the title of Best in Show, begins in Birmingham. The overall winner will be announced on Sunday

  • US: President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in Washington

Friday

  • International Women’s Day

  • Ghana: 13th African Games begin across three cities, Accra, Kumasi and Cape Coast

  • Ireland: referendums on changing the country’s constitution on family and care.

  • US: latest deadline for a new funding deal to avert a partial government shutdown

Saturday

Sunday

  • Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins

  • Deadline, given by Israel, for Hamas to free all hostages in Gaza

  • Portugal: general election

  • UK: Mothering Sunday

  • US: 96th Academy Awards (the Oscars) ceremony in Hollywood. Also, Daylight Saving time begins, with clocks going forward one hour.

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Trump sues IRS and Treasury for $10 billion over leaked tax information

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Trump sues IRS and Treasury for  billion over leaked tax information

The Internal Revenue Service building May 4, 2021, in Washington.

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WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is suing the IRS and Treasury Department for $10 billion, as he accuses the federal agencies of a failure to prevent a leak of the president’s tax information to news outlets between 2018 and 2020.

The suit, filed in a Florida federal court Thursday, includes the president’s sons Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. and the Trump organization as plaintiffs.

The filing alleges that the leak of Trump and the Trump Organization’s confidential tax records caused “reputational and financial harm, public embarrassment, unfairly tarnished their business reputations, portrayed them in a false light, and negatively affected President Trump, and the other Plaintiffs’ public standing.”

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In 2024, former IRS contractor Charles Edward Littlejohn of Washington, D.C. — who worked for Booz Allen Hamilton, a defense and national security tech firm — was sentenced to five years in prison after pleading guilty to leaking tax information about Trump and others to news outlets.

Littlejohn, known as Chaz, gave data to The New York Times and ProPublica between 2018 and 2020 in leaks that appeared to be “unparalleled in the IRS’s history,” prosecutors said.

The disclosure violated IRS Code 6103, one of the strictest confidentiality laws in federal statute.

The Times reported in 2020 that Trump did not pay federal income tax for many years prior to 2020, and ProPublica in 2021 published a series about discrepancies in Trump’s records. Six years of Trump’s returns were later released by the then-Democratically controlled House Ways and Means Committee.

Trump’s suit states that Littlejohn’s disclosures to the news organizations “caused reputational and financial harm to Plaintiffs and adversely impacted President Trump’s support among voters in the 2020 presidential election.”

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Littlejohn stole tax records of other mega-billionaires, including Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk.

The president’s suit comes after the U.S. Treasury Department announced it has cut its contracts with Booz Allen Hamilton, earlier this week, after Littlejohn, who worked for the firm, was charged and subsequently imprisoned for leaking tax information to news outlets about thousands of the country’s wealthiest people, including the president.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the time of the announcement that the firm “failed to implement adequate safeguards to protect sensitive data, including the confidential taxpayer information it had access to through its contracts with the Internal Revenue Service.”

Representatives of the White House, Treasury and IRS were not immediately available for comment.

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Map: 4.2-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Montana

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Map: 4.2-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Montana

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Mountain time. The New York Times

A light, 4.2-magnitude earthquake struck in Montana on Thursday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 12:41 p.m. Mountain time about 7 miles northeast of Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont., data from the agency shows.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Mountain time. Shake data is as of Thursday, Jan. 29 at 2:56 p.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Thursday, Jan. 29 at 5:42 p.m. Eastern.

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Medicare Advantage insurers face new curbs on overcharges in Trump plan

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Medicare Advantage insurers face new curbs on overcharges in Trump plan

Dr. Mehmet Oz leads the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. A CMS plan to keep payments to Medicare Advantage flat in 2027 roiled health insurance stocks this week.

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Medicare Advantage health plans are blasting a government proposal this week that would keep their reimbursement rates flat next year while making other payment changes.

But some health policy experts say the plan could help reduce billions of dollars in overcharges that have been common in the program for more than a decade.

On Jan. 26, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services officials announced they planned to raise rates paid to health plans by less than a tenth of a percent for 2027, far less than the industry expected. Some of the largest, publicly traded insurers, such as UnitedHealth Group and Humana, saw their stock prices plummet as a result, while industry groups threatened that people 65 and older could see service cuts if the government didn’t kick in more money.

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In Medicare Advantage, the federal government pays private insurance companies to manage health care for people who are 65 and older or disabled. 

“Chart reviews”

Less noticed in the brouhaha over rates: CMS also proposed restricting plans from conducting what are called “chart reviews” of their customers. These reviews can result in new medical diagnoses, sometimes including conditions patients haven’t even asked their doctors to treat, that increase government payments to Medicare Advantage plans.

The practice has been criticized for more than a decade by government auditors who say it has triggered billions of dollars in overpayments to the health plans. Earlier this month, the Justice Department announced a record $556 million settlement with the nonprofit health system Kaiser Permanente over allegations the company added about half a million diagnoses to its Advantage patients’ charts from 2009 to 2018, generating about $1 billion in improper payments.

KP did not admit any wrongdoing as part of the settlement.

“I do think the administration is serious about cracking down on overpayments,” said Spencer Perlman, a health care policy analyst in Bethesda, Maryland.

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Perlman said that while the Trump administration strongly supports Medicare Advantage, officials are “troubled” by plans that rake in undue profits by using chart reviews to bill the government for medical conditions even when no treatment was provided.

In a news release, CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz said curbing this practice would ensure more accurate payments to the plans while “protecting taxpayers from unnecessary spending that is not oriented towards addressing real health needs.”

“These proposed payment policies are about making sure Medicare Advantage works better for the people it serves,” Oz said.

Richard Kronick, a former federal health policy researcher and a professor at the University of California-San Diego, called the proposal “at least a mildly encouraging sign,” though he said he suspected health plans might eventually find a way around it.

Kronick has argued that switching seniors to Medicare Advantage plans has cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars more than keeping them in the government-run Medicare program, because of unbridled medical coding excesses. The insurance plans have grown dramatically in recent years and now enroll about 34 million members, or more than half of people eligible for Medicare.

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David Meyers, an associate professor at the Brown University School of Public Health, called the proposed restriction on chart reviews “a step in the right direction.”

“I think the administration has been signaling pretty strongly they want to cut back on inefficiencies,” he said.

The outcry from industry, mostly directed at the proposal to essentially hold Medicare Advantage payment rates flat, was quick and sharp.

“If finalized, this proposal could result in benefit cuts and higher costs for 35 million seniors and people with disabilities when they renew their Medicare Advantage coverage in October 2026,” said Chris Bond, a spokesperson for AHIP, formerly known as America’s Health Insurance Plans.

CMS is accepting public comments on the proposal and says it will issue a final decision on the payment rates and other provisions by early April.

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Meyers said health plans often claim they will be forced to slash benefits when they aren’t satisfied with CMS payments. But that rarely happens, he said.

“The plans can still make money,” he said. “They mostly are very profitable, just not as profitable as shareholders expected.”

The government pays Medicare Advantage plans higher rates to cover sicker patients. But over the past decade, dozens of whistleblower lawsuits, government audits, and other investigations have alleged that health plans exaggerate how sick their customers are to pocket payments they don’t deserve, a tactic known in the industry as “upcoding.”

Many Medicare Advantage health plans have hired medical coding and analytics consultants to review patients’ medical charts to find new diagnoses that they then bill to the government. Medicare rules require that health plans document — and treat — all medical conditions they bill.

Yet federal audits have shown for years that many health plans’ billing practices don’t hold up to scrutiny.

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A December 2019 report by the Department of Health and Human Services inspector general found that the health plans “almost always” used chart reviews to add, rather than delete, diagnoses. “Over 99 percent of chart reviews in our review added diagnoses,” investigators said.

The report found that diagnoses reported only on chart reviews — and not on any service records — resulted in an estimated $6.7 billion in payments for 2017.

This week’s proposal is not the first time CMS has tried to crack down on chart reviews.

In January 2014, federal officials drafted a plan to restrict the practice, only to abruptly back off a few months later amid what one agency official described as an “uproar” from the industry.

The health insurance industry has for years relied on aggressive lobbying and public relations campaigns to fight efforts to rein in overpayments or otherwise reduce taxpayers’ costs for Medicare Advantage.

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What happens this time will say a lot about the seriousness of the Trump administration in its crack down on controversial, long-standing payment practices in the program.

Perlman, the policy analyst, said it is “quite common” for CMS to partially backtrack when faced with opposition from the industry, such as by phasing in changes over several years to soften the blow on health plans.

David Lipschutz, an attorney with the Center for Medicare Advocacy, a nonprofit public interest law firm, said finalizing the chart review proposal “would be a meaningful step towards reining in overpayments to Medicare Advantage plans.

“But in the past, he said, even a minor change to Advantage payments has led the industry to protest that “the sky will fall as a result, and the proposal is usually dropped.”

“It’s hard to tell at this stage how this will play out,” Lipschutz said.

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KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF.

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