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Spiralling US public debt risks action from bond vigilantes

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Spiralling US public debt risks action from bond vigilantes

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Bond vigilantism is resurgent in the market for sovereign debt. That emerged with remorseless clarity from the brutal sell-off of UK gilts that toppled hapless British prime minister Liz Truss. Could the fiscal disciplinarians of the global investment community now turn their disruptive talents to the US Treasury market?

As well as savaging the president of the day, such a challenge could devastate the US’s role as the world’s chief provider of safe assets during global crises, while simultaneously threatening the dollar’s status as the pre-eminent reserve currency.

For many, the idea is simply unimaginable. In a recent speech, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller declared that flights to the dollar in the financial crises of 2008 and 2020 were “the ultimate vindication that the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and is likely to remain so”.

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Well, yes. The dollar is, after all, backed by the world’s biggest, most liquid debt market. It enjoys what economists call network externalities: widespread acceptance engendering wider use. Supported by the world’s largest economy, the currency is a magnet for nearly 60 per cent of all central banks’ foreign exchange reserves.

Note, too, that despite the US economy’s shrinking share of global output, the outcome has merely been a genteel decline in the dollar’s relative share of global reserves. That said, governor Waller conspicuously failed to mention the biggest reason for thinking Treasuries are no longer an ultra-safe store of value.

This is not the US’s appallingly dysfunctional politics. Nor the weaponisation of the dollar thanks to geopolitics. Nor again the possible competitive threat from other central banks’ digital currency plans. Rather, it is a spiralling public debt now exceeding 97 per cent of gross domestic product, a level not seen since the second world war.

The parallel with the immediate postwar period is instructive. The US succeeded in reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 106 per cent in 1946 to 23 per cent by 1974. But the debt was mainly domestic, whereas today nearly a quarter is in foreign hands. For about half the time to 1980, real interest rates in the advanced economies were negative. Carmen Reinhart and Belen Sbrancia have estimated that for the US and UK the annual liquidation of debt thanks to those negative interest rates averaged 3 per cent to 4 per cent of GDP a year.

That arose from a policy of financial repression involving direct lending by captive investment institutions and banks to government, interest rate caps and capital controls. In the three decades after the war, the growth rate of national output also exceeded the interest rate on government debt for most of the time. Result: phenomenal debt shrinkage.

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With today’s global capital flows and deregulated markets financial repression would be unenforceable. The Fed has levered up interest rates to help meet a 2 per cent inflation target and ultra-low interest rates are gone. Meantime, the Congressional Budget Office predicts the US deficit will soar by nearly two-thirds in the next decade, with interest payments accounting for three-quarters of the increase. That stems from the morally hazardous debt binge induced by years of ultra-loose monetary policy.

Even the Treasury has declared the public debt burden unsustainable. That means its own supposedly safe IOUs — the linchpin of global markets — are potentially unsafe. To remedy that would require fiscal consolidation, meaning debt reduction. Some hope in a polarised US, whether under Joe Biden, Donald Trump or whoever.

The demise of dollar dominance has long been predicted, but never happens because other countries cannot match the supposed safety and liquidity of US Treasuries. Yet that logic may fracture in the face of a deep seated problem identified by economists Ethan Ilzetzki, Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. They argue the demand for safe dollar debt risks overwhelming the US government’s capacity to back it when the tax base is diminishing. In which case we are in similar territory to the collapse of the Bretton Woods exchange rate regime in the early 1970s, which unleashed two decades of high inflation and enduring financial instability.

It is thus safe to predict that the relative fiscal probity of sovereign borrowers will become a more pressing concern of official reserve managers. And, if the vigilantes strike, the nature of a flight to quality will, in the ensuing firestorm, be redefined as fiscally profligate countries are beset by financial crises. Meantime, fiscal conservatives that generate few safe assets will be hit by uncontrollable bond market bubbles. Policymakers should start contingency planning now.

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How Trump’s Iran Blockade Is Complicating a High-Stakes Trip to China

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How Trump’s Iran Blockade Is Complicating a High-Stakes Trip to China

President Trump’s declaration that he is willing to maintain a blockade on Iranian shipping until the Iranians surrender to his demands almost assures that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed by the time he arrives in Beijing in two weeks.

That is exactly what Mr. Trump was seeking to avoid when he delayed his trip to China six weeks ago. And it vastly complicates a critical meeting with President Xi Jinping, forcing White House officials to rethink how Mr. Trump approaches the effort to engineer a rapprochement with China.

In public and private, Mr. Xi has demanded that the United States reopen the waterway through which China imports about a third of its oil and gas.

When Mr. Trump initially envisioned the trip as the first in a series of carefully scripted meetings, the possibility of a war with Iran was not on the radar of most administration officials. When he delayed it in early April, he was confident the war would be over quickly.

At the time of that decision, members of Mr. Trump’s national security team said they hoped that forcing Iran into a nuclear deal after a relatively short bombing campaign would be a demonstration of American power and reach. They also saw it as a warning to Beijing as Mr. Trump sought a rapprochement with the country that is America’s largest military, technologic and economic competitor.

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But that assumption, like so many about the course of the war with Iran, has now gone badly awry.

If Mr. Trump flies to China as planned, with an intensive, two-day visit starting on May 14, the primary topic will clearly be the rippling economic effects of a war that China has made clear it viewed as unnecessary. Mr. Xi went further recently, warning that the world may be returning to the “law of the jungle,” though he made no specific reference to Iran or the strait at that time.

More than a week ago the Chinese leader directly called for the reopening of the strait, telling Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, according to Chinese state media, that it “should remain open to normal navigation, which is in the common interest of regional countries and the international community.”

Mr. Trump clearly rejected that strategy on Wednesday when he reinforced his determination to keep the blockade on shipments from and to Iranian ports in place. “The blockade is genius, OK,” he told reporters during an event with the Artemis II astronauts. “The blockade has been 100 percent foolproof.”

The White House did not address the clear difference in strategy when asked about the effect of the blockade on the coming trip. The visit is supposed to focus on a trade deal and, to a lesser degree, security issues such as Beijing’s squeeze on Taiwan, China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, rising Chinese cyberactivity against the United States and its growing nuclear program.

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But in a statement, Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said that “President Trump has a positive relationship with President Xi, and he looks forward to visiting China later this year. Thanks to the successful blockade of Iranian ports and crippling impacts of Operation Epic Fury, the United States maintains maximum leverage over the Iranian regime as negotiations continue.”

She added, “The president has been clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon, and he always keeps all options on the table.”

Mr. Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration that neither the bombing that the United States and Israel conducted for 38 days, nor the economic strangulation that he is attempting by having the Navy intercept ships leaving or bound for Iranian ports, is achieving the desired effect.

“Now they have to cry uncle,” Mr. Trump said. “That’s all they have to do, just say: ‘We give up. We give up.’”

Mr. Trump has used variants of his “cry uncle” test over the past month, despite warnings from his own intelligence agencies and outside experts that the White House has consulted that nothing in Iran’s history or the nature of its constantly competing power centers suggests the country would offer what Mr. Trump had earlier called “unconditional surrender.” It was more likely, they have said, that Tehran would double down in its resistance.

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In fact, even as Mr. Trump has swung from praise of Iran’s new leaders as more “reasonable” than their predecessors, to threats to resume bombing, to the blockade, the Iranian strategy appears to have remained steady. It has imposed a blockade of its own, in the Persian Gulf, that has prevented Arab states from risking sailing their tankers through the straits.

The president on Wednesday publicly rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the strait and end the war. Iran offered to delay negotiations over the nuclear issues until later, but Mr. Trump told aides this week that he was not satisfied with that option, believing that the blockade is the most effective leverage the United States holds if the ultimate goal is to get Iran to ship its 11 tons of enriched uranium out of the country and to halt all nuclear activity for a number of years.

“Suffice it to say that the nuclear question is the reason why we’re in this in the first place,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Fox News this week. “If Iran was just a radical country run by radical people, it would still be a problem, but they are revolutionary.”

(The United States has demanded 20 years in negotiations, and the Iranians’ last public position was three to five years. More recently, Mr. Trump has said 20 years is “not enough.”)

Some aides thought Mr. Trump should take the Iranian offer to reopen the Strait, believing Iran’s positions have hardened and seeing little evidence that the country’s leaders will make further concessions.

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Mr. Trump has insisted that is unacceptable.

“There will never be a deal unless they agree that there will be no nuclear weapons,” he said on Wednesday. In fact, the Iranians have already agreed never to produce a nuclear weapon — they even made that commitment in writing when they ratified the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and again as part of the 2015 nuclear accord with the Obama administration. But what they will not agree to, so far, is ending what they call a “right” to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the treaty.

Inside the White House, officials have prepared a range of options for the future of the conflict, including maintaining the blockade for months and resuming military activity inside Iran. But Mr. Trump has looming constraints on his ability to restart the war. The 60-day window to use force without congressional authorization expires this week, and some Republicans have already signaled they will not support an extension.

Members of Mr. Trump’s party, and some of his own aides, are growing anxious about the political impact of the war, especially as gas prices remain inflated. Republicans were already facing political headwinds going into November’s midterm elections, and a prolonged military conflict could exacerbate those.

In the next two weeks, China’s role in the conflict may prove crucial.

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Among Asian nations it has by far the largest reserves of oil, so shortages are not an issue yet. But with oil suddenly above $110 a barrel, some of the highest prices since the opening of the war, the economic effect on the Chinese economy will be huge, most likely far higher than Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

China is Iran’s largest customer by far, and administration officials are betting that pressure from Beijing could force the Iranians into concessions.

Chinese officials played a critical role in persuading Iran to accept the first two-week cease-fire this month after Mr. Trump threatened to wipe Iranian civilization off the map. They asked their Iranian counterparts to show more flexibility in the negotiations over the strait and warned that the cease-fire might be Tehran’s only opportunity to prevent calamity, according to Iranians officials.

Now that negotiations seem to be at an impasse again, a number of officials and analysts say China may have an opportunity to steer toward a lasting peace — or at least a pathway toward reopening the critical waterway. In addition to the commercial relationship between the two countries, there is limited military cooperation. American intelligence agencies have assessed that China may have sent a shipment of shoulder-fired missiles to Iran for the war, though Mr. Trump said two weeks ago that he communicated with Mr. Xi to cut off further help.

At least in public, Mr. Trump has played down China’s assistance to Iran.

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“I was a little surprised because I have a very good relationship and I thought I had an understanding with President Xi,” he told CNBC this month of the suspected Chinese shipment to Iran. “But that’s all right. That’s the way war goes.”

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New Orleans sheriff indicted after investigation into escape of 10 inmates

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New Orleans sheriff indicted after investigation into escape of 10 inmates

A Louisiana sheriff was indicted Wednesday over her office’s role in a notorious jailbreak that sparked outrage last year. The brazen escape saw 10 inmates flee from a New Orleans jail, prompting a massive manhunt involving hundreds of officers from federal, state and local law enforcement agencies.

Orleans Parish Sheriff Susan Hutson faces a 30-count grand jury indictment, charging her with malfeasance, obstruction of justice and falsifying public records. Although Hutson is not accused of helping the inmates break out of jail — through a hole behind a toilet — a state investigation found her poor management of the jail led to their escape. All of the inmates were eventually recaptured after a monthslong search.

“While Sheriff Hutson did not personally open the doors of the jail for the escapees, her refusal to comply with basic legal requirements and to take even minimal precautions in the discharge of her duties directly contributed to and enabled the escape,” Murrill said in a statement.

Huston’s office did not immediately respond to phone calls, text messages and emails seeking comment. Court records did not list a personal attorney for Huston, who lost her reelection campaign and is set to leave office on Monday.

The sheriff told CBS News in an exclusive interview last August that understaffing and “major design flaws” at the jail played a significant part in the inmates’ escape. At the time, she said those flaws at the Orleans Parish Justice Center “make it unsafe for those who are housed here and make it unsafe for those who work here.”

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In a farewell address Tuesday, Hutson said her office faced numerous challenges and said the jailbreak “tested us to the limit.” She added her office “responded with professionalism, urgency and resilience, and we came out stronger because of it.”

Court records show bond for Hutson was set at $300,000 and that she was ordered to turn in her passport and not leave the state. Bianka Brown, the chief financial officer of the sheriff’s office, was also indicted on 20 similar charges. She did not immediately respond to phone calls and text messages sent to numbers associated with her.

Both Hutson and Brown turned themselves into the Jefferson Parish Correctional Center and have been released on bond, CBS affiliate WWL reported.

Sheriff Susan Hutson speaks at a City Council meeting in New Orleans on May 20, 2025, following the escape of 10 inmates from the Orleans Parish Justice Center.

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Sophia Germer/The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate via AP, File


The escapees left behind graffiti that read “To Easy LoL” after crawling through a hole behind a jail toilet and scaling a barbed wire fence. The jail did not realize the inmates were missing for more than seven hours.

State officials and some city leaders accused Hutson of poor management and criticized her for not alerting police and other authorities in a timely manner. Hutson initially blamed political opponents for being behind the jailbreak without providing any evidence to support her claim. She also said faulty door locks enabled the escape and added she had been seeking funding to improve the jail’s ailing infrastructure.

The Orleans Parish jail system had been plagued by violence, corruption and dysfunction for decades and was placed under federal oversight in 2013. But problems persisted despite tens of millions of dollars in investment and the opening of a new jail facility in 2015. 

Federally appointed monitors warned of the jail’s inadequate staffing, lax supervision and a skyrocketing number of “internal escapes” in the two years leading up to the jailbreak.

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House Adopts Budget to Unlock $70 Billion for Immigration Enforcement

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House Adopts Budget to Unlock  Billion for Immigration Enforcement

The House on Wednesday narrowly adopted a Republican budget blueprint that would allow the G.O.P. to blow past Democratic opposition and pour an additional $70 billion into immigration enforcement through the remainder of President Trump’s second term.

The measure is a crucial step in Republicans’ plan to reopen the Department of Homeland Security, ending a shutdown that has lasted for nearly 11 weeks.

Republicans pushed through the plan, which the Senate adopted last week, on a party-line vote of 215 to 211, with one independent lawmaker voting “present.” That set the stage for the G.O.P. to begin working on a special budget measure, shielded from a filibuster in the Senate, to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection, the two agencies charged with carrying out the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.

“This is the moment we take the keys, and we say, no more of this nonsense,” said Representative Jodey C. Arrington, Republican of Texas and chairman of the Budget Committee. “And we open up the people’s government and we restore the safety and security of the American people.”

The budget plan — which stalled in the House for more than five hours as Republicans fought among themselves over measures on agriculture and ethanol that had nothing to do with immigration — was part of the two-track strategy that Republicans agreed to earlier this month to reopen the Department of Homeland Security, whose funding lapsed on Feb. 14.

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Democrats had refused to fund the department without new restrictions on federal immigration agents’ conduct, and Republicans had refused to agree to any. Then last month, Senate Republicans struck a deal with Democrats to allow the spending measure for the Department of Homeland Security to pass with no funding for or restrictions on immigration enforcement. The G.O.P. would then seek to fund ICE and C.B.P. through a process known as reconciliation, which exempts certain budget bills from a filibuster and allows them to pass the Senate on a simple-majority vote.

Approval of the budget plan was a crucial first step for Republicans to begin the reconciliation process, which will deprive Democrats of the ability to block the bill funding ICE and C.B.P. President Trump has directed Congress to pass that measure by June 1.

The spending bill to fund the rest of the department, which has passed the Senate twice without objection, has remained stalled in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson has yet to bring it to the floor, even as the White House has urged swift passage.

Several rank-and-file House Republicans said they would not vote for the spending bill without seeing progress on the bill funding immigration enforcement. It was not clear whether adoption of the budget blueprint would be enough to sway them.

The budget resolution would allow the two Senate committees that oversee immigration enforcement agencies to write legislation that increases government spending by up to $70 billion each. Republican leaders have said that they expect the total spending amount to be closer to $70 billion in total.

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Democrats attacked Republicans for giving more money to immigration agencies that already received a large fund as part of Mr. Trump’s signature domestic policy bill. They argued that such money would be better utilized to address Americans’ concerns over affordability and health care.

“Republicans refuse to address the rising costs that Americans are dealing with because this administration refuses to put the people first,” said Representative Pramila Jayapal, Democrat of Washington. “Americans of every political stripe do not want more money to go to ICE’s slush fund.”

Some rank-and-file Republicans had been concerned about such attacks, and they sought to expand the scope of the budget bill to include priorities that they argued would be felt more directly by most Americans.

But the White House and congressional Republican leaders rebuffed those efforts, worried that adding other priorities to the bill would slow its passage and could prolong a record shutdown.

Megan Mineiro contributed reporting.

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