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Russia’s Brutal War Calculus

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Russia’s Brutal War Calculus

Two years of war have remade Russia.

Isolated from the West, it is now more dependent on China. Political repression is reminiscent of the grim days of the Soviet Union.

But Russia is not the economic shambles many in the West predicted when they imposed punishing sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. Many Russians are pulling down their highest incomes in years.

Russian society has been refashioned in ways that have devastated some and lifted others. While government critics languish in jail and young men die in trenches at the front, other Russians — especially those willing to spout the official line — are feeling more optimistic than ever.

Here is a look at how Russia at war has changed — suffering enormous costs by some metrics but faring better than expected by others.

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Daily Life

People fled Russia in droves after the invasion and draft, more than 820,000, although some returned.

Alcoholics were diagnosed in higher numbers after more than a decade of steady declines.

Demand for psychologists increased by more than 60% in the first year of the war.

Traffic to Facebook and Instagram dropped after Russia blocked them, and use of Telegram and secure platforms like VPNs surged.

Travel abroad plummeted from pre-pandemic days.

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But people are making higher wages as men deployed to the front reduce the ranks of workers back home.

And Russians are shelling out on new homes, helped by generous government subsidies.

Despite the ways that life has changed, many people say they feel positive about how President Vladimir Putin is doing. His popularity surged as the war began and is now at its highest level in seven years.

Questions remain about how honest people feel they can be in polls, given the risks. And polls have signaled, too, that a substantial number would like the war to end. But Mr. Putin has convinced many that in invading Ukraine, Russia is defending itself against an existential threat from the West.

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The Economy

Mr. Putin went into the war with his financial house in order.

Government debt was low. Funds were stashed away. And a team of agile technocrats were on hand to fend off a crisis.

After an initial shock, the Russian system recovered, thanks in part to emergency financial measures, high oil prices and trade with China and India. Moscow also greatly increased state spending.

Collectively, Russia has created its own wartime economy.

Trade with Europe dropped by about 65% after Western sanctions.

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Toyotas and VWs, once popular, disappeared from car assembly lines.

But trade with China, India and Turkey boomed.

By last year, Chinese cars made up six of the top 10 car brands in Russia.

The G.D.P. overall was driven up last year by an enormous war-related government stimulus.

Unemployment dropped.

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And more than two-thirds of Russians say their economic well-being is the same or better.

But inflation shot up too.

The economy is now in danger of overheating. The mortgage subsidies could be fueling a housing bubble. And the market is still off-kilter in some sectors, with shortages of certain medicines, for example, and dramatic reductions in car production.

If oil prices plunge, Russia will struggle. If the military spending spree ends, all bets are off. Russia can sustain warfare in Ukraine for the foreseeable future, but its long-term economic future is in doubt.

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Support for the War

For the moment, at least, the resilient economy has boosted Mr. Putin. And a campaign of propaganda and repression have allowed him to reign virtually unchallenged.

As nationalist songs top the charts — “I am Russian, out of spite to the whole world,” goes one — less attention is being paid to the news. And the government plans to spend $500 million on “patriotic education” this year, including for a goose-stepping “youth army.”

The percentage of people saying the country is moving in the right direction is the highest in decades, 71% last month.

Support for Russian military actions in Ukraine is even higher, though many Russians have indicated that they aren’t comfortable sharing their opinion about the war.

Repression of those opposing the war is widespread.

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Treason convictions nearly tripled.

The war has accelerated a crackdown on the L.G.B.T.Q. community.

Soviet-style denunciations are back, as Russians report “unpatriotic” behavior by fellow citizens to the authorities.

Freedom of assembly has been obliterated, with nearly 20,000 Russians detained for their antiwar stance.

Independent journalists have been forced to flee, and many have been declared foreign agents.

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Mr. Putin’s best-known critic, Aleksei A. Navalny, died after years of inhumane treatment in prison.

The number of prisoners in Russia has actually decreased dramatically.

But that’s primarily because many were recruited to fight, and often die, in Ukraine.

Blood and Treasure

In the early months of the war, Mr. Putin’s military made grave mistakes, but it has regrouped. Russia fended off a Western-backed Ukrainian counteroffensive and has taken the initiative on the front, buoyed by frozen American aid for Ukraine.

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Still, Russia has sustained huge costs to get this far. It is far from controlling the four regions it claims to have annexed, let alone the rest of Ukraine, and Mr. Putin may need to carry out another draft.

He claims he would like to negotiate an end to the war, but skeptics see that as a ploy to undercut Western aid to Ukraine.

Moscow has made increasing gains in recent weeks. It now controls about 18 percent of Ukraine, up from 7 percent before the full-scale invasion.

But its control of Ukraine is down from the 27 percent Russian forces once occupied at their height.

The progress is coming at a higher cost. Military spending has eclipsed social spending at the federal level for the first time in Russia’s 32-year post-Soviet history. It makes up about a third of the national budget.

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Some 60,000 Russians have been killed in the fighting, according to U.S. officials.

That’s two Russian soldiers for every square mile taken from Ukraine since the invasion.

The popularity of the war appears to ebb when it comes to support for the draft. Only 36% of Russians support another mobilization to replenish forces.

To replenish its ranks, Russia has been targeting prisons and poorer regions for recruits.

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Soldiers in Ukraine are earning roughly three times the average Russian salary — and in many cases more. Compensation to families of soldiers who die in Ukraine can be more than $84,000, more than nine times the average annual Russian salary.

But despite their stated support for the war, many Russians would be happy for it to end. Half of Russians say they want to start peace talks.

Sources

People fleeing Russia: Re:Russia

Diagnoses of alcohol dependence in 2022: Rosstat

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Psychologist demand: Psychodemia, Alter, HeadHunter

Facebook, Instagram, Telegram and VPN use: Mediascope, AppMagic

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Foreign travel: Russian Border Service, Association of Tour Operators

Patriotic education: Russian federal budget

Putin’s popularity: Levada Center

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Share of Russians paying attention to the war: Levada Center

Trade with Europe: Eurostat

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Trade with China, India and Turkey: Bruegel

Russia’s well-being: NORC at the University of Chicago

Inflation: Bank of Russia

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People saying the country is moving in the right direction: Levada Center

Treason convictions, 2021 compared with 2023: Pervy Otdel, Supreme Court of Russia

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Number of prisoners: Russian Ministry of Justice

Control of territory in Ukraine: Institute for the Study of War

Military spending: Russian Ministry of Finance

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War deaths: U.S. officials

Support for the draft: Russian Field

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Support for peace talks: Levada Center

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Riverside Church Trial: 2 Ex-Players Testify to Being Sexually Abused

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Riverside Church Trial: 2 Ex-Players Testify to Being Sexually Abused

Two more former college basketball players testified Friday to being sexually abused as teens by the multimillionaire coach of New York’s esteemed Riverside Church basketball program, echoing the allegations of their boyhood teammate Daryl Powell, who’s suing the church in a state Supreme Court civil court trial in Manhattan.

Former Riverside players Byron Walker and Mitchell Shuler both took the stand on the trial’s second day, frequently choking up as they described their experiences with Ernest Lorch, who built the church basketball program into a model for the massive modern youth sports industry—but died in 2012 with a reputation tarnished by abuse allegations.

Walker described a pair of incidents in which he alleged Lorch forced himself on the player, ostensibly to discipline him. One of the alleged assaults Walker described, detailed in a joint Rolling Stone and Sportico investigation, resulted in a criminal indictment against Lorch in Massachusetts in 2010. (Lorch never stood trial in the case because of his failing health.) On Friday, Walker told the six jurors and three alternates that during halftime of a game in Springfield, Mass., in 1977, Lorch “tried to penetrate me,” ostensibly while punishing him for being late for the team van.

The former player also went into detail about a second allegation during a tournament in Arizona, where, Walker said, Lorch threatened to prevent him from talking to a college recruiter because he broke curfew and was drinking with teammates. After issuing that threat, Walker said on the stand, Lorch forced him to pull down his pants and sexually assaulted him. “There’s this back and forth motion,” the former point guard at the University of Texas-El Paso testified, “like I was being raped.”

Walker’s testimony followed that of Mitchell Shuler, who played on the same late-1970s Riverside elite high-school-age travel teams with Walker and Powell. Shuler, whose play with Riverside helped him gain a scholarship to the University of New Orleans, broke down several times when describing Lorch’s use of a paddle to punish him for indiscretions ranging from not working hard in practice to struggling in a high school French class. “I got down on my knees, like a dog, and got hit,” said Shuler, who last year retired as a project manager at Harlem Hospital after a 40-year career. “My bare butt was exposed.”

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Shuler also described being stared at by Lorch while showering and enduring “jockstrap checks” in which the coach groped his testicles.

Both players were called as witnesses by attorneys for Powell, whose case is the first of 27 lawsuits filed against Riverside to go to trial under New York’s 2019 Child Victims Act. He alleges that Riverside was negligent in supervising Lorch over his 40-year run at the head of the basketball program, which ended in 2002 after the first public allegations of abuse by a former player.

But Shuler and Walker are also suing Riverside, which Riverside attorney Phil Semprevivo pointed out to the jury. Earlier in the day, Powell faced tough questions on cross-examination by Semprevivo, who sought to poke holes in his case against the church—including differences in the plaintiff’s trial testimony Thursday and an earlier sworn deposition in the case in 2023.

For example, Powell testified Thursday that Lorch “stroked” the player’s penis as part of jockstrap checks and inserted his finger in Powell’s anus. Semprevivo pointed out that Powell never used those terms or descriptions at any point in his earlier deposition.

He also questioned Powell’s stated rationale for quitting basketball completely after a successful junior season at Marist College in 1982. On Thursday, Powell emphasized that he quit Marist with a year left on his full scholarship because he was “fed up” with the sport after his history with Riverside. Semprevivo pointed to other deposition testimony that Powell said he quit school to be with his future wife. Under questioning Friday, Powell said both reasons factored in his decision.

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The former player also said some discrepancies in his testimony were a result of his diminished hearing. But Semprevivo, pointing out several contradictions or inaccuracies on things like dates, said Powell had ample opportunity to correct the deposition record and failed to do so.

One such instance: Powell said in his deposition that he never mentioned being abused by Lorch to any Riverside assistant coaches, including Kenny “Eggman” Williamson, who died in 2012. But in his trial testimony, Powell gave a detailed account of telling Williamson that Lorch was looking down his shorts and paddling him. Powell testified that he remembered it vividly because, he said, he told Williamson on the day of the infamous, riot-plagued 1977 New York City blackout.

Powell said on Thursday that Williamson told him, “If you know what I know, you better not say anything, or you’re not playing for this team anymore.”

Powell continued: “I was devastated. I shut my mouth up. I wanted to stay on the team.”

Semprevivo pointed out on Friday that Powell signed a statement in 2024 that corrected some errors in his deposition, but never amended his statement that he’d never said anything to Williamson.

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UAE cuts funding for citizens studying at UK universities over campus radicalization fears: report

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UAE cuts funding for citizens studying at UK universities over campus radicalization fears: report

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is removing funding for its citizens to study in the United Kingdom, citing concerns they could be radicalized abroad. 

The move means the UAE has removed British universities from a list of higher education institutions eligible for state scholarships amid growing tensions over London’s decision not to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization, The Financial Times reported. 

“[The UAE] don’t want their kids to be radicalized on campus,” a person directly involved with the decision told the outlet. 

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA ORDERED TO REINSTATE LAW STUDENT WHO WAS EXPELLED AFTER ANTI-JEWISH COMMENTS

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A “Welcome to the People’s University for Palestine” banner at King’s College at the University of Cambridge May 11, 2024, in Cambridge, U.K.  (Mark Kerrison/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Since then, Emirati students who have applied to their government for scholarships to study in the U.K. have been denied. 

The move also means that the UAE will not recognize qualifications from academic institutions that are not on its accredited list, rendering degrees from U.K. universities less valuable than others, according to the report. 

NYC STUDENTS EXPOSE ‘EXTREMIST’ PROFESSORS FOSTERING CAMPUS ANTISEMITISM AT MAJOR UNIVERSITIES

The skyline in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, where funding for its citizens to study in the United Kingdom has been halted.  (Vidhyaa Chandramohan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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“All forms of extremism have absolutely no place in our society, and we will stamp them out wherever they are found,” Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office said in a statement. “We offer one of the best education systems in the world and maintain stringent measures on student welfare and on-campus safety.”

The UAE has taken a hardline approach to Islamist movements abroad and at home. 

During the 2023-24 school year, 70 students at U.K. universities were reported for possible referral to the government’s deradicalization program, the report states. 

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UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan has repeatedly questioned the U.K.’s decision to declare the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization. 

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Starmer’s administration last year said the matter was under “close review.”

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Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,416

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Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,416

These are the key developments from day 1,416 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

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Here is where things stand on Saturday, January 10:

Fighting:

  • The death toll from a massive Russian attack on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv that began on Thursday night has risen to four, the Ukrainian State Emergency Service wrote in an update shared on Facebook on Friday. At least 25 people were also injured, including five rescuers, the service added.
  • The attack left thousands of Kyiv apartments without heat, electricity and water as temperatures fell to minus 10 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) on Friday, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko and other local officials said.
  • Klitschko called on people to temporarily leave the city, saying on Telegram that “half of apartment buildings in Kyiv – nearly 6,000 – are currently without heating because the capital’s critical infrastructure was damaged by the enemy’s massive attack”.
  • Russian forces shelled a hospital in the Ukrainian city of Kherson just after midday on Friday, damaging the intensive care unit and injuring three nurses, the regional prosecutor’s office wrote on Telegram.
  • “As a result of the attack, three nurses aged 21, 49, and 52 were wounded. At the time of the shelling, the women were inside the medical facility,” the office said in a statement.
  • The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, condemned attacks on healthcare in Ukraine in a statement shared on X, saying that there had been nine attacks since the beginning of 2026, killing one patient, one medic and injuring 11 others, including healthcare workers and patients.
  • Tedros said that the attacks further “complicated the delivery of health care during the winter period” and called for “the protection of health care facilities, patients and health workers”.
  • Russian forces attacked two foreign-flagged civilian vessels with drones in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region, killing a Syrian national and injuring another, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba and other officials said on Friday.
  • A Ukrainian drone attack on a bus in Russia’s Belgorod region injured four people, the regional task force reported, according to Russia’s TASS state news agency.
  • Russian forces seized five settlements in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region, including Zelenoye, the Russian Ministry of Defence said, according to TASS.
  • Ukrainian battlefield monitoring site DeepState said on Friday that Russian forces advanced in Huliaipole and Prymorske in the Zaporizhia region, but did not report any further changes.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday that Russia’s Oreshnik missile strike late on Thursday was “demonstratively” close to Ukraine’s border with the European Union.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency has begun consultations to establish a temporary ceasefire zone near Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant after military activity damaged one of two high-voltage power lines, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in a statement on Friday.

Sanctions

  • US forces seized the Olina oil tanker and forced it to return to Venezuela so its oil could be sold “through the GREAT Energy Deal”, United States President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Friday. According to The Associated Press news agency, US government records showed that the Olina had been sanctioned for moving Russian oil under its prior name, Minerva M.
  • Ukraine’s ambassador to the US, Olha Stefanishyna, said that Ukrainian nationals were among members of the crew of the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera seized earlier this week by US forces over its links to Venezuela, according to Interfax Ukraine news agency.
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry separately said on Friday that the US had released two Russian crewmembers from the Marinera, expressing gratitude to Washington for the decision and pledging to ensure the return home of crewmembers.

Politics and diplomacy

  • Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed “deep regret” over damage to its embassy in Kyiv, confirming that no diplomats or staff were hurt, in a statement on Friday. The ministry underscored the importance of protecting diplomatic buildings and reiterated its call for a “resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis through dialogue and peaceful means”.
  • British Defence Secretary John Healey said that the United Kingdom was allocating 200 million pounds ($270m) to fund preparations for the possible deployment of troops to Ukraine, during a visit to Kyiv on Friday.
  • The leaders of Britain, France and Germany described Russia’s use of an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in western Ukraine as “escalatory and unacceptable”, according to a readout of their call released by Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office on Friday.
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