Connect with us

News

Turkey’s central bank rocked by another leadership shake-up

Published

on

Turkey’s central bank rocked by another leadership shake-up

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Turkish central bank chief Hafize Gaye Erkan has quit just months into her tenure and been replaced by a deputy, the latest leadership shake-up at one of the country’s foremost economic institutions.

Erkan, who was appointed as the central bank’s first female governor in June and has since increased interest rates significantly, said she resigned as the result of a smear campaign against her. But for local and foreign investors, the saga has brought back memories of other late-night putsches against well-regarded central bank leaders.

Who will replace Erkan as central bank chief?

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appointed deputy central bank governor Fatih Karahan to replace Erkan late on Friday. He is Erdoğan’s sixth central bank governor since 2019.

Advertisement

Karahan, who joined the central bank in July, is a well-known figure among the economics community in Turkey. He is widely seen as one of the driving forces behind a big pivot towards more conventional monetary policy that kicked off after Erkan’s appointment.

The University of Pennsylvania-educated economist worked for nearly a decade at the New York Federal Reserve and later joined ecommerce group Amazon before his appointment at the Turkish central bank.

Karahan’s published work and professional experience has broadly focused on macroeconomics and labour markets. His experience contrasts with Erkan, a former Goldman Sachs banker, who specialised in developing complex risk management models for banks.

“I know him as an . . . expert who is respected by the employees of the institution,” Hakan Kara, a former Turkish central bank chief economist, said of Karahan. One local banker added Karahan is a “credible” choice to lead the bank.

What was Erkan’s role in Turkey’s economic overhaul?

Erdoğan, Turkey’s leader of the past two decades, abruptly changed course on economic policy after his re-election in May. He abandoned unconventional policies that had fuelled a prolonged inflation crisis and by spring 2023 ignited serious concerns that Turkey was headed for a balance of payments crisis or capital controls.

Advertisement

The president appointed Mehmet Şimşek as finance minister, a former Merrill Lynch bond strategist who had served years earlier as deputy prime minister, in June to lead the economic turnaround. Erkan’s appointment days later helped bolster expectations that Erdoğan was serious about the overhaul.

The central bank under Erkan’s leadership has boosted interest rates from 8.5 per cent to 45 per cent. It has also taken a series of other steps aimed at cooling rampant inflation and financing growth, while encouraging locals to hold liras rather than stashing their savings in dollars and gold.

The bank’s foreign currency war chest, which was depleted in recent years in an unsuccessful attempt to prop up the lira, was also rebuilt during Erkan’s tenure. Gross foreign currency reserves were $85bn at the end of 2023, up from $48bn in May, according to central bank data.

What does this mean for investors?

Foreign investors have been slowly warming to Turkish assets in recent months after largely abandoning the country’s markets over the past decade because of Erdoğan’s unorthodox policies.

Pimco, one of the world’s biggest bond managers, told the Financial Times last month it had started buying lira-denominated debt and that Turkey could even regain its investment-grade credit ratings in the next five years.

Advertisement

One of investors’ most persistent fears, however, has been the risk of another “Ağbal incident”, a reference to 2021 when Erdoğan sacked well-respected central bank governor Naci Ağbal for raising interest rates.

The initial reaction from local and foreign analysts is that Erkan’s exit is not a repeat of Ağbal’s dismissal.

A senior economic official said that Şimşek was provided the latitude to nominate a governor who shared his convictions on the restoration of conventional economic policies.

“Our president has full support and confidence in our economic team and the programme we are implementing,” Şimşek said on Friday.

Fatih Akcelik, Turkey economist at JPMorgan, told clients, “while sudden leadership changes bring discomfort for investors, we see the new [central bank] governor as positive for disinflation and lira”.

Advertisement

He added that Karahan would probably be more hawkish on interest rates than Erkan had been since he was part of a trio of central bank deputy governors who were thought to have agitated strongly for large rate rises.

Akcelik added that a “dovish tilt” at last week’s central bank meeting, in which the policy-setting committee signalled it was unlikely to raise rates again, will probably be reversed.

What prompted Erkan’s exit?

Rumours have been swirling around Turkey’s economics community for the past several weeks after a former employee claimed in a local news report that Erkan’s father held an unofficial role at the central bank and had sacked her.

Politicians in Turkey’s opposition political parties latched on to the drama, with one MP demanding in January that Şimşek answer questions related to the allegations.

Erkan dismissed the claims as “unfounded” and “completely unacceptable”.

Advertisement

Erdoğan appeared to back Erkan as recently as last week, when he said unnamed assailants were “conducting campaigns to disrupt the climate of confidence and stability that we have achieved with great difficulty in the economy with unreasonable rumours”.

Erkan said she had quit for personal reasons: “A major character assassination campaign has been organised against me recently,” Erkan said, adding that she had stepped down “to prevent my family and, moreover, my sinless child . . . from being further affected by this process”.

News

Satellite images show Iran school strike hit more buildings than earlier reported

Published

on

Satellite images show Iran school strike hit more buildings than earlier reported

The bombing of an Iranian elementary school that killed some 165 people, many of them schoolgirls, included more targets near the school than has been initially reported, a review of commercial satellite imagery by NPR has found.

The images suggest that the school was hit on Saturday as part of a precision airstrike on a neighboring Iranian military complex — and that it may have been struck as a result of outdated targeting information.

The new images come from the company Planet and are of the city of Minab, located in southeastern Iran. They show that a health clinic and other buildings near the school were also struck. Three independent experts confirmed NPR’s analysis of the additional strike points.

Advertisement

The strike points “look like pretty clean detonation centroids,” said Corey Scher, a postdoctoral researcher at the Conflict Ecology laboratory at Oregon State University.

“These certainly appear like detonation sites,” agreed Scher’s colleague, Oregon State associate professor Jamon Van Den Hoek.

Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at Middlebury College who specializes in satellite imagery, said the imagery was consistent with a precision airstrike.

The images show “very precise targeting,” Lewis told NPR. “Almost all the buildings [in the compound] are hit.”

A satellite image of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard compound taken on March 4.

A satellite image of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard compound taken on March 4, several days after an airstrike destroyed a school on the edge of the compound. The image reveals that half a dozen other buildings in addition to the school were struck.

Planet Labs PBC

Advertisement


hide caption

toggle caption

Planet Labs PBC

Advertisement

Iranian state media said 165 people died in the bombing, which struck a girls’ school. The school was located within less than 100 yards of the perimeter of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval base, according to satellite images and publicly available information. The clinic was also located within the base perimeter, although both facilities had been walled off from the base.

Israel has denied involvement. “We are not aware at the moment of any IDF operation in that area,” Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Nadav Shoshani told NPR on Monday. “I don’t know who’s responsible for the bombing.”

At a press conference Wednesday morning, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the U.S. is looking into what happened at the school. “All I know, all I can say, is that we’re investigating that,” Hegseth said. “We, of course, never target civilian targets.”

Given Minab’s location in the southeastern part of Iran, Lewis believes it’s more likely the U.S. would have conducted the strike than Israel. As one gets farther south and east in Iran, “a strike is much more likely to be a U.S. strike than an Israeli strike because of the type of munitions and the geographic location,” he said.

Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, called the strike “deliberate” and said that the U.S. and Israel bombed the school in part to tie up Iranian forces in the region with rescue efforts. “To call the attack on the girls school merely a ‘war crime’ does not capture the sheer evil and depravity of such a crime,” he said.

Advertisement

But Lewis said it’s more likely that the strike was the result of an error. Satellite images show that the school and clinic buildings were both once part of the base. The school was separated from the base by a wall between 2013 and 2016. The clinic was walled off between 2022 and 2024.

Lewis believes it’s possible American military planners had not updated their target sets.

“There are thousands of targets across Iran, and so there will be teams in the United States and Israel that are responsible for tracking those targets and updating them,” he said. “It’s possible that the target didn’t get updated.”

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to NPR’s request for additional information about the strike.

NPR’s Arezou Rezvani and NPR’s RAD team contributed to this report.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, tipped to become Iran’s next head of state

Published

on

Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, tipped to become Iran’s next head of state

Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the assassinated Ali Khamenei, is being heavily tipped to succeed his father as supreme leader of Iran, which would pitch a hardliner into the task of steering the Islamic republic through the most turbulent period in its 48-year history and offer a powerful signal that, for now, it has no intention of changing course.

No official confirmation has been given and the announcement may be delayed until after the funeral of Ali Khamenei, which was on Wednesday postponed.

His son is believed to have been the choice of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Israeli defence minister, Gideon Saar, has warned he will be assassinated.

Ayatollah Seyed Khatani, a member of the Assembly of Experts, the body that chooses the new supreme leader, said the assembly was close to selecting a leader.

Rigid in his anti-western views, Mojtaba Khamenei is not the candidate Donald Trump would have wanted. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said on Tuesday that Iran was run by “religious fanatic lunatics” – and Khamenei’s appointment is hardly likely to dispel that opinion.

Advertisement
‘They were going to attack first’: Trump gives update on Iran – video

The choice of supreme leader is made by the 88-strong Assembly of Experts, who in this case are picking from a field of six possible candidates. His election would be a powerful if unsurprising symbol that the government is not looking to find an accommodation with America.

Trump has said the worst-case scenario would be if Khamenei’s successor was “as bad as the previous person”.

There has been speculation for more than a decade that he would be his father’s successor, which grew when Ebrahim Raisi, the elected president and favourite of Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash.

Mojtaba Khamenei was born in 1969 and studied theology after graduating from high school. At the age of 17, he went to serve in the Iran-Iraq war, but it was not until the late 1990s that he came to be recognised as a public figure in his own right.

Advertisement

After the landslide defeat of Khamenei’s preferred candidate, Ali Akbar Nategh Nuri, in the 1997 presidential election, where he won only 25% of the final vote, various conservative Iranian groups realised the need to make changes to their structures and Mojtaba Khamenei was central to that project.

He was also seen as instrumental by reformists in suppressing the protests in 2009 that came after allegations the presidential election had been rigged, with his name chanted in the streets as one of those responsible. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a senior member of Iran’s reformist parties who was imprisoned after the vote, alleged that his and his wife, Fakhr al-Sadat Mohtashamipour’s, legal case was under the direct supervision of Mojtaba Khamenei.

In 2022 he was given the title of ayatollah – essential to his promotion. By then he was a regular figure by his father’s side at political meetings, as well as playing an influential role in the Islamic Republic’s Broadcasting Corporation, the government’s official media outlet often criticised for churning out dull political propaganda that many Iranians reject in favour of overseas satellite channels. He has also played a central role in the administration of his father’s substantial financial empire.

His closest political allies are Ahmad Vahidi, the newly appointed IRGC commander; Hossein Taeb, a former head of the IRGC’s intelligence organisation; and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current speaker of the parliament.

His rumoured appointment and its hereditary nature has long been resisted by reformists. The former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, referring to the long history of rumours about Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding his father as leader, wrote in 2022: “News of this conspiracy have been heard for 13 years. If they are not truly pursuing it, why don’t they deny such an intention once and for all?”

Advertisement

The Assembly of Experts, in response, denounced “meaninglessness of doubts” and said the assembly would select only “the most qualified and the most suitable”.

Israel on Tuesday struck the building in the Iranian city of Qom, one of Shia Islam’s main seats of power, where the assembly was scheduled, but the building was empty, according to IRGC-affiliated media.

Continue Reading

News

Video: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

Published

on

Video: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

new video loaded: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

transcript

transcript

Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem repeatedly refused to apologize for suggesting that Alex Pretti and Renee Good, two U.S. citizens shot and killed by agents, were domestic terrorists.

What we’ve seen is a disaster under your leadership, Ms. Noem. A disaster. What we’ve seen is innocent people getting detained that turn out are American citizens. I could talk about the culture that’s been created here. After the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, when I spoke to Alex’s parents, they told me that you calling him a domestic terrorist — this was directly from them — the day after he was killed, a nurse in our V.A., Alex — one of the most hurtful things they could ever imagine was said by you about their son. Do you have anything you want to say to Alex Pretti’s parents? Ma’am, I did not call him a domestic terrorist. I said It appeared to be an incident of — I think the parents saw it for what it was. In a hearing — recent hearing before the HSGAC committee, C.B.P. and ICE officials testified under oath that their agencies did not inform you that Pretti was a domestic terrorist — during that hearing, stated during that hearing, I was getting reports from the ground, from agents at the scene, and I would say that it was a chaotic scene. How did you think that calling them domestic terrorists at that scene was somehow going to calm the situation? The fact that you can’t admit to a mistake, which looks like under investigation, it’s going to prove that Ms. Good and Mr. Pretti probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back. Law enforcement needs to learn from that. You don’t protect them by not looking after the facts.

Advertisement
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem repeatedly refused to apologize for suggesting that Alex Pretti and Renee Good, two U.S. citizens shot and killed by agents, were domestic terrorists.

By Christina Kelso and Jackeline Luna

March 3, 2026

Continue Reading

Trending